Class Syllabus Course #04364 AP Statistics Lyn Davies Room B217 Office hours: TWR 2:40-3:20 and by request E-Mail: lyn_davies@dpsk12.org Course Description and Objectives: The purpose of this course is to provide students with the opportunity to gain college math credit for statistics. The attached syllabus has been approved by the College Board. Students should have a minimum completion level of IMP3 and have had at least a B in their last math course in order to be prepared. The course is writing intensive and requires high level skill at the interpretive level. Materials: Lined Paper Graph Paper Pencil or Black Pen (no sharpie or felt tip please) TI83+ or TI84+ Calculator (TI 89 and Nspire are NOT recommended) Class Records: 1) Assignments will be posted on my wordpress site. 2) Daily objectives will be posted on my wordpress site. 3) It is the student’s responsibility to get information on any missed work when absent. 4) Grades will be updated in IC weekly. Grading (by percentage) Please see district policy for point value: Scale: 90 and above A (90-92 A-) 80-89 B (87-89 B+; 80-82 B-) 70-79 C (77-79 C+; 70-72 B-) 60-69 D (67-69 D+; 60-62 D-) Below 60 F Rubrics will be provided when needed for constructed response items. Breakdown: Collaborative Work 20% of each quarter Assessments 80% of each quarter Homework (approximately 20%) Announced in class quizzes (approximately 20%) AP RELEASED FRQ’s (approximately 20%) Unit Tests (approximately 20%) Final Exam 10% of the final grade Reference: Collaborative Work: Any work that involves collaboration either inside or outside of class. Each team write up must contain clear reference to every individual in the team that identifies his/her contribution. Expectations for write ups will be made clear in writing and verbally for each assignment. All members of the team must participate in presentations. Homework: Homework that is collected will be graded for accuracy using the AP rubric for free response problems where applicable. At the end of each quarter, the lowest two homework scores will be dropped. In Class Quizzes: Quizzes given during a unit on which a student may references his/her notes. Some quizzes will be open note-no shared or smart notes allowed. AP RELEASED FRQ (Free Response Question): Instructions will be given as to whether a given question is to be submitted in class or electronically submitted. Each section will be scored E (essentially correct), P (Partially correct) or I (Incorrect) as described by the College Board. General guidelines are listed below. More specific rubrics will be available when needed for individual AP RELEASED FRQ’s Identical papers or portions of papers between two or more students may be subject to questions regarding academic misconduct. Unit Test: Closed note, in class tests. Individual free response questions will be scored using the E, P, I designations which will be translated to a 0-4 score for the problem. Multiple choice problems may be weighted according to level of difficulty. Such weight will be designated on the test. A test grade will be assigned based on the sum of all possible points on the test. E, P and I designations: E: Essentially Correct indicates that minor errors may exist, but a correct understanding of the problem is clearly present. P: Partially Correct indicates that the student has demonstrated some understanding of the problem, but needs some follow up instruction. I: Incorrect indicates the student has little or no understanding of the concepts embedded in the problem. A great deal of follow up instruction is needed. In Class Procedures: 1) Please have caps on liquids and use good judgment on snacks brought to class. 2) Cell phones should be kept in the vibrate position and concealed. 3) Minor discipline problems including excessive tardies, class disruptions and off task behavior that interferes with the offender’s learning will be handled on a case by case basis in the following manner: a. (1st offense) Talk to the student(s) involved. b. (2nd -3rd offense) E-mail to the parent c. Repeated offenses may be handled with referral and/or parent conference. d. A student who is habitually absent/tardy or a discipline problem will be denied my outside tutoring services pending a parent conference. 4) Severe discipline problems such as bullying, extreme disruption and/or behavior that interfere with the learning process for more than just the offender will be dealt with immediately by referral and possible removal from class via short term suspension if necessary in accordance with DPS tiered discipline ladder. 5) Late work will be accepted in accordance with DPS grading policy. a. Students have two school days per excused absence to hand in late work. b. Work that is turned in late without prior extension or absence will be penalized in the following way: i. 20% penalty for 1-2 days late ii. 50% penalty for 3+ days late until the unit assessment iii. No late work will be accepted for the unit after the assessment has been given. Attendance: If a student is tardy unexcused after AP RELEASED FRQ or homework collection, the assignment will be given a maximum of 80% credit after accuracy grading. If a student is tardy unexcused on an assessment day, no extended time will be given. If a student is absent, it is his/her responsibility to see me or contact me for notes. Notes will be available from class electronically. Electronic and/or face to face parent conferencing will be used to alleviate habitual attendance problems. I do offer outside tutoring by appointment for students who have given every effort in class, maintained good attendance and need supplemental instruction. Tutoring is in no way a substitute for attending class. Students with three or more unexcused tardies, and/or two or more unexcused absences will be denied my outside tutoring services. Students with severe numbers of excused absences and tardies may also be denied tutoring from me pending parent conferencing. Electronic or hard copy acknowledgement of having read this syllabus serves as a contract between myself the student and parents. Please acknowledge by 09.01.11. AP Statistics Text: Yates, Daniel, David Moore and Darren Starnes, The Practice of Statistics, 4e., W.H. Freeman and Company, New York,. 2011. Aligned with College Board Indicators Optional purchase site: http://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8&rh=n%3A2205237011%2Ck%3A142924559X&pa ge=1 eText ISBN-10 142927185X; ISBN-13 9781429271851 Print ISBN-10 142924559X; ISBN-13 9781429245593 AP released questions are available from the College Board website http://apcentral.collegeboard.com Other Resources Used: 1) David E. Bock, Velleman, DeVeaux, Stats Modeling the World, Pearson Addison Wesley, New York, 2004. 2) Ron Millard, Turner, Activities and Projects for Introductory Statistics Courses,2nd edition, W.H. Freeman and Company, New York2008. 3) Martin Sternstein, Ph.D., Barron’s AP Statistics, 4th edition, Barron’s Educational Series, New York, 2008. Course: AP Statistics Description: This is a year long class meant to be taught at the introductory college level. The course moves through four basic units including data gathering, data analysis, probability and inference. More specific skill breakdown is provided in the above pacing and standards alignment guide. Materials: Students will need a TI-83+ or TI-84+ calculator and internet access. Goals: 1) Students will learn to gather data in using appropriate methods and display that method in multiple ways. 2) Students will use technology to organize, display, simulate and perform appropriate calculations and tests within statistical problems. 3) Students will learn to look at numbers with a new understanding of where those numbers came from and be more aware of both proper and improper production and use of statistical information. 4) Students will learn the essential elements of experimental design and survey methods. 5) Students will understand the idea of randomness with respect to discrete and continuous data sets. 6) Students will learn to draw conclusions about what the data tell them through various types of hypothesis testing. College Board/ Text Section Days Resources Indicator Ref. # (Time) AP Questions; Block Vocabulary 1.0 Exploring Data Objectives: 1) Students will 15 become familiar with all major types of data display including bar charts, pie charts, dot plots, line plots, stem and leaf plot, boxplots and histograms. 2) Students will be able to construct data displays for quantitative variables and will use TI-84 calculators to construct histograms, boxplots and scatter plots. 3) Students will be able to choose and justify appropriate summary statistics for a data set after commenting on the shape, center and spread of a distribution based on the raw data and its display. 4) Characteristics of density curves with an emphasis on Normal Distributions will be explored including standardizing data and the empirical rule. 5) Students will use normal probability plots to help justify the use of a normal model. 6) Students will assess linearity of bivariate data by looking at a scatter plot, residual plot and calculating the correlation coefficient. 7) Students will use technology to generate models for data including LSRL and comment on those models using the coefficient of In addition to the text demonstrations will be made using Fathom software in class. Essential Vocabulary: Individuals Variable (categorical and quantitative) Distribution Shape Center Spread Outlier (know all types and how to test for them) 5 number summary Mean Standard deviation Normal curve LSRL Residual Correlation Influential point Conditional Distribution Simpsons’s paradox determination and other analysis. 8) Students will use models to make predictions about the data. 9) Students will use basic functions to transform data in order to improve analytical potential. 1.1 a, b, c, d 1.2 a, b, c, d, e Introduction pp. 7-26 Displaying data-charts pp. 27-50 dotplots/stemplots/histograms pp. 51-81 mean/5 number summary QUIZ #1-Passing Grade Required. Retake until pass. 1.3 a, b, c, d 3.3 a, b, c 1.4 a, b, c 2 after school review sessions will be offered. (required for those who fail the quiz) pp. 84-109 Describing Location in a Distribution Percentiles, z-scores, cumulative frequency graphs, data transformation, mean, median, standard deviation pp. 110-139 density curves-normal dist. 68-95-99.7 Rule Standard normal distribution Normal probability plot Chapter 2 Test pp. 141-157 Bivariate Data (Describing Relationships) scatterplots-basics 0 .5 (45) .5 (45) .5 (45) 2.5 (225) 4 (360) 1 (90) 1.5 (135) AP: 2001 #6a; 2002B #5; 2003 #1a,b; 2006 #1; 2008B #1 AP: 2005 #1a (choice of measure of center) AP: 2000 #3; 2001 #1; 2004B #5a; 2004 #1; 2006 #1 AP: 2007 #1a 1998 #6a; 1999 #4a,c; 2002 #3a; 2004B #3a,b 2.0 Sampling and Experimentation 2.1 a, b, c, d 2.2 a, b, c, d pp. 164-197 LSRL, standard equation, 4 extrapolation, residuals, residual (360) plot, standard deviation of residuals, coef. of determination, influential observations, association v. cause 1 Chapter 3 Test (90) Chapter 4 Objectives: 1) Students will 7 understand how to gather data effectively by asking the key question: What do we want to discover? 2) Students will learn to construct appropriate survey questions to answer questions about a target population. 3) Students will learn to model situations through simulation techniques using TI-84 calculators and Fathom software. 4) Students will understand the difference between observational studies and experiments. 5) Students will learn how to determine the effects of treatments on a response variable through experimental design. AP: 1998 #2; 2000 #1; 2002B #1 pp. 206-230 observation v. experiment population, sample, sample AP: 2005 #5b,c; 2007 #5a HW 11: p.285-289 2 (180) Essential Vocabulary: Observational Study Experiment Population Sample Sampling Census Voluntary Response Sample Biased SRS Probability Sample Stratified Random Sample Undercoverage Nonresponse Systematic Random Sample Convenience Sample Factor Level Placebo Randomize Control Replicate Block Blinding (double) Probability Model Simulation 2.3 a, b, c, d, e 3.1 e, 2.4 survey, random sampling, SRS, random digits, stratification, strata, cluster sample, bias, voluntary response, convenience, sampling errors, undercoverage, sampling frame, non sampling errors, non response, response bias. pp. 231-261 designing experiments: Units, subjects, treatments, 3.5 explanatory, response, (360) confounding, lurking, factors, levels, placebo, controls, randomization, replication, significance, single v. double blind, blocks, matched pairs AP: 2003B #3a; 2007 #2 1998 #3; 1999 #3; 2000 #5; 2001 #4 (blocking); 2002 #2 (match pairs design); 2002B #3; 2003 #4 (randomization); 2004 #2 (blocking); 2004B #2; 2006 #5 2003 #4a,b,d; 2007 #2b pp. 261-276 Using studies wisely Test Chapter 4 3.0 Anticipating Patterns all Objectives: 1) Students will explore random behavior and become familiar with the Law of Large Numbers. 2) Students will learn basic probability rules through simulation and formal methods. 3) Students will move from discrete probability calculation to theoretical distribution models including the normal model, geometric model and binomial model. .5 (90) 1 (90) 24 Essential Vocabulary: General Probability Rules Disjoint Complimentary Independent Event Outcome Without replacement Discrete Continuous Expected Value Binomial Probability Geometric Probability 3.1 a pp. 280-293 Law of large numbers, probability, simulation State/Plan/Do/Conclude 1 (90) 3.1 c pp. 299-312 sample space, event, probability model, mutual exclusivity (disjoint), Venn diagrams, 2 way tables, general addition rule pp. 312-333 Conditional Probability Independence, tree diagrams, general multiplication formula, conditional probability formula pp. 340-357 discrete/continuous random variables, normal distributions as PRB distributions, expected value (mean), variance of a random variable 1.5 (135) 3.1 c 3.1 d 3.1 b, f 3.1 d 2.5 (225) pp. 358-376 Linear Transformation of a random variable 2.5 (225) pp.382-408 binomial and geometric distributions 4.5 (395) Chapters 5 & 6 Test 2.2 a, b, c 2 (180) pp. 412-432 sampling distributions, parameter, statistic, population distribution, unbiased estimator, biased estimator, variability of a 1 (90) 3 (270) AP: 1997 #3; 1999 #5; 2003B #2; 2004 #4a AP: 1999 #5b; 2000 #6b,c; 2001 #2; 2002 #3; 2002B #2; 2003B #5; 2003 #6a; 2004B #3c,d (normal curve); 2004 #4b,c; 2005 #2 (expected values); 2006 #3a AP: 1998 #6b,c,d,e; 1999 #4b; 2001 #3; 2004 #3 (conditions for binomial setting); 2006 #3b,c 3.4 a 3.4 b, c 4.0 Statistical Inference 4.1 c, f statistic pp. 432-441 sample proportions, p hat v. p, pp. 442sample means, central limit theorem(CLT), sampling distribution of x bar Chapter 7 Test 2 (180) 3 (270) AP: 1998 #1 (CLT); 2004 #3c,d (CLT); 2007 #3 1 (90) *****Semester 1 Final****** Objectives: 1) Students will use 39 sample statistics to estimate a range of possible values for population parameters (confidence intervals). 2) Students will propose models for situations and examine observed statistics to see if the model makes sense. 3) Students will learn to appropriately identify and use inference procedures to test hypothesis based on the central limit theorem including tests about proportions and means. 4) Students will learn to check underlying assumptions for all tests. 5) Students will know when to use t models, matched-pairs t models and how to perform tests on counted data. 6) Students will identify understand and perform inferences for regression. pp. 466-484 estimating with confidence, confidence intervals 3 for a population mean, margin of (270) error, point estimator, point estimate, confidence level Essential Vocabulary: Hypothesis Null Type I Error Type II Error Power Significance Level Standard Error Pooled Data Confidence Level Inference Margin of Error P-Value AP: 2007 #1c 4.2 a, d 4.2a pp. 484-498 standard error, conditions for confidence for proportions (Random, Nearly Normal, Independence or 10%) pp. 499-522 estimating a population mean, standard error formula, df, one sample t, conditions, robustness Test Chapter 8 3.4 g, 4.1 f, 4.2 a, d 2 (180) 4 (360) 1 (90) pp. 526 – 549 Significance test, null hypothesis, 4 alternative hypothesis, one sided, (360) two sided, P-value, significance level, reject v. fail to reject. 4.1 g, 4.2 e Inference as decision, type I and type II errors, power pp. 549-587 one sample z, one sample t, conditions, paired data Test Chapter 9 4.1 d, 4.2 b 4.1 e, 4.2 c AP: 2002 #1; 2002 #6a,b; 2003B #6; 2003 #6b,c,d 5 (450) AP: 2000 #2 (ttest); 2003 #1c; 2004 #6 (confidence interval only); 2004B #5b,c; 2007 #4 AP: 1999 #6a,b; 2000 #4; 2001 #5 (paired t-test or two sample z test); 2002B #6a; 2003B #4c; 2004B #4 (confidence interval only); 2005 #6; 2006 #4;1998 #5; 2002B #4; 2003 32 (Type I and Type II Error) 1 (90) pp. 600-626 inference for two populations, 2.5 conditions (normality, random, (225) independent samples), 2 sample z interval for proportions, pooled proportions tested with 2 sample z. pp. 627-660 comparing two means, 3 AP: 2000 #6; 2002 #5, #6c,d; 2003B 3.4 h, 4.2 f 4.2 f conditions (random samples, normality, independence of samples), two sample t interval for confidence and two sample t test for significance (270) Chapter 10 Test 1 (90) pp. 674-695 Chi square test for goodness of fit, observed counts, expected counts, chi square distribution, large sample size condition, components 13.2 pp. 696-731 inference for two-way tables, chi-square statistic, chi-square test for homogeneity of populations, chi-square test of association/independence Cumulative Test 4.1 h, 4.2 g 1.4 d,e 1.5 a-d pp. 738-759 regression inference, confidence intervals for the regression slope, conditions (linear relationship, independence of observations, normality of response variable, equal variances of x and y, random production of data), t interval for slope, standard error of slope, t test for slope pp. 766-792 transforming relationships log/ exponential/power models #3b; 2004B #6; 2007 #5 2 (180) 3 (270) AP: 1999 #2 (independence); 2002 #6; 2002B #6b (homogeneity); 2003 #5 (independence); 2003B #5c (independence);1997 #6; 2004B #1 1 (90) AP: 2001 #6b 3 (270) 3 (270)