Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Focus on Ukraine
May 26 – June 1, 2014
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
TABLE OF CONTENTS
І. Overviews of political
events of the week……………………………..…..………...3
II. Analytical Reference….………….…….……………..…….4
AFTER SURVIVING MAIDAN,
WILL RADA HOLD OUT FULL TENURE?……………………....…......4
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І. Overviews of political events of the week
Arseniy Yatsenyuk will remain in his post as prime minister of
Ukraine said Petro Poroshenko, who according to preliminary
results leads in the presidential election race. Poroshenko said the
work Yatsenyuk has accomplished with international lenders and
the International Monetary Fund regarding financial aid for Ukraine has had a
positive effect on the economic situation in the country. Given this, Poroshenko
said there are no grounds to replace Yatsenyuk.
May
26
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine handed over a note to
envoy and advisor of the Russian Embassy in Ukraine Andrei
Vorobyov regarding the latest intervention of Russian militants onto
the territory of Ukraine, the Ukrainian MFA Department of
Information Policy informed.
May
27
U.S. President Barack Obama congratulated the leader of the presidential
election race in Ukraine Petro Poroshenko for his landslide victory. Obama noted
that the U.S. will guarantee peace and reforms together with the people of
Ukraine. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also congratulated Poroshenko on his
victory. The day before the elections Chair of the Central Election Commission
Mykhailo Okhendovskiy announced that Petro Poroshenko was elected Ukraine’s
new president based on the results of the elections on May 25, 2014.
The socio-political situation in the Donetsk oblast, where anti-terrorist
operations continue, have been aggravated. Military actions have been activated
in the city of Slovyansk and the Slovyansk County. The situation in the Donetsk,
Horlivtsia, Dzerzhynsk, Kramatorsk and Mariyinskiy counties remains tense.
A curfew has been set in the Donetsk oblast, the press service of the selfproclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic informed. Starting from 20:00 local public
transport will be suspended until the situation is normalized and a curfew has
been set from 22:00-6:00 in the morning.
A group of OSCE election observers have disappeared in the Donetsk oblast. The
special OSCE monitoring mission in Ukraine lost contact with one of its groups
working in the Donetsk oblast.
The Right Sector has become an official political party. The State
Registration Service of Ukraine renamed the party Ukrainian
National Assembly to the Private Sector. The registration number in
the notation in the Unified Registry is 268. The leader of the party is
Dmytro Yarosh.
May
28
Head of the Presidium of the Verkhovna Rada of the self-proclaimed Donetsk
People’s Republic Denis Pushilin appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin
demanding that he stop the “genocide against the Russian people”.
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Terrorists shot down a helicopter that was transport military
servicemen for changing of the guard near the city of Slovyansk. A
total of 13 soldiers died and one sustained severe wounds. Among
the victims was General Volodymyr Kulchytskiy. The helicopter was
shot down by a Russian Zenith rocket. Acting Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada
Oleksandr Turchynov confirmed the information about the loss of the soldiers’
lives.
May
29
The Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine filed a claim requesting that people’s
deputy Oleh Tsaryov be brought to criminal liability and be detained for taking
precautionary measures.
Leader of the UDAR party Vitaliy Klitschko won the Kyiv mayoral elections,
Oleksandr Turchynov announced at the opening of the parliamentary session.
The special monitoring mission of the OSCE, which has been
working in Ukraine, does not confirm information spread by
Russian mass media about the release of four representatives of
the mission in the Donetsk oblast, the press service of the OSCE
mission informed on Facebook. In the release it reads that members of the
mission have not been able to contact their colleagues working the Donetsk oblast
since the evening of May 26. There are 4 international observers in the Donetsk
group.
May
30
Ukraine may file a claim against Gasprom to the Court of Arbitration in
Stockholm regarding the review of gas prices, Ukraine’s Minister of Energy Yuriy
Prodan stated in Berlin.
II. Analytical Reference
AFTER SURVIVING MAIDAN, WILL RADA HOLD OUT FULL TENURE?
On May 29 the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced the final results of
the counting of 100% of the voting ballots in the presidential elections in
Ukraine. Petro Poroshenko won taking 54.7% of the votes in the first round.
Taking into account his pre-election promise to dissolve the parliament, which
he repeated immediately following the voting, political experts began assessing
the chances that such a promise would be fulfilled. Here, it is quite clear that this
will depend not only on legal grounds, but also on the positions of key political
actors.
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Who is for and against
dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada?
What is the probability of holding
early parliamentary elections in 2014?
Most probably, participants and
activists of Maidan are most
interested in the holding of early
parliamentary elections in concise
terms. This was one of their main
demands to the old guard that
migrated to the “post-Maidan”
period.
The problem with the current
Verkhovna Rada is that its members
were elected in unfair elections in
2012 and it was overloaded with
representatives of the former
political regime that supported the
repressive policy of ex-president
Viktor Yanukovych. The most
illustrious testimony of this was the
votes of members of the Party of
Regions and the Communist Party of
Ukraine (CPU) in favor of the
“dictatorial” laws adopted on January
16 that provoked the escalation of
violence on Maidan and resulted in
the death of innocent people. That
fact that the absolute majority of
these deputies to this day attend
sessions of the Verkhovna Rada is
probably the main reason why
Maidan activists are calling for a reelection of the parliament.
Newly elected President Petro
Poroshenko, who is capable of
bringing in a large number of his
proponents into the new parliament
and forming a majority that is loyal to
him, harbors the greatest interests
among all representatives of the
higher political echelon in holding
early parliamentary elections.
Poroshenko’s “Solidarnist” party,
which is at the moment a virtual
political formation, could become the
pillar of this initiative – it is clear that
he will quickly gain supporters after
his victory. While, following the
elections, Poroshenko bears strong
and “fresh” legitimacy in public’s eye,
the legitimacy of the Verkhovna Rada
of the 7th convocation is much
weaker.
The greatest obstacle to the new
president fulfilling his desires is his
constitutional power to suspend the
authority of parliament, which he can
only do on three conditions: the
inability of the parliament to convene
within 30 days of its regular session,
the inability to form a coalition within
the 30-day term or the inability to
form a government within 60 days.
It is quite clear that the second
option is the most favorable for the
president and his supporters in the
parliament, which is possible if the
UDAR party pulls out of the existing
coalition. The other side of the coin
in this scenario is the possible
formation of a new coalition made up
of opponents to early elections,
which could potentially ruin the plans
of its initiators.
At the same time, given the
precedent of the legally questionable
sacking of the parliament in the
summer of 2007 the consent of a
critical mass of politicians on holding
a re-election may be the key to
realizing such a scenario, not the
strict
compliance
with
the
constitutional clauses. Members of
the UDAR party, who also plan to
increase their representation in the
parliament by taking away voters of
the Batkivshchyna and Svoboda
parties, should also be considered
proponents of such a scenario. Yulia
Tymoshenko, who seeks revenge for
her devastating loss in the
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presidential elections, is also quite
interested in the dismissal of the
current parliament.
Deputies of different factions that
hope to establish good relations with
Poroshenko in order to retain a seat
in the parliament might also support
the idea of dismissal of the
parliament. Given the heterogeneity
of the team of the PoroshenkoKlitschko union, both former and
current
members
of
the
parliamentary opposition could be a
part of such factions. Ultimately,
runners in the presidential elections
Oleh
Lyashko
and
Anatoliy
Hrytsenko, who will hope to gain
their own factions in the parliament,
can be viewed as proponents of this
scenario. However, their influence on
the decision to sack the parliament is
quite limited.
It is quite logical that the losers of the
presidential elections are the main
opponents in the next parliamentary
elections. This, in particular, applies
to the Party of Regions, which today
risks ending up on the sidelines of
gaining seats in the parliament, and
the Svoboda party, which faces a real
threat of losing its representation in
the new parliament.
Clearly, members of the CPu will not
be pleased with this situation as its
electoral prospects are quite
uncertain. Besides that, deputies that
won seats in the Verkhovna Rada in
first-past-the-post constituencies will
be a force that will oppose the preterm elections not wanting to risk
their seats in parliament and put
their personal political future under
threat.
In the end, it is worth noting the
position of the Constitutional Court,
which in this situation theoretically
could play the role of an arbitrator
and decide the fate of re-elections.
However, its political weakness and
dependency give no grounds to speak
of the influence of this institution on
the possibility of the aforementioned
scenario.
Accordingly, despite the fact that
there is no consensus in the higher
echelons of power regarding the
need to hold early parliamentary
elections, proponents of such an
initiative currently have the upper
hand.
Besides that, given the legacy of
Maidan, the position of Ukrainian
citizens could be a critical factor. 69%
of them support the holding of early
parliamentary elections in 2014,
while only 12% do not support it.1
While during the military actions in
the eastern part of Ukraine the
majority of citizens could feel that
the early elections are secondary,
after the end of active armed phase
this issue will most likely become a
priority and could result in an
increase in the people’s pressure on
the existing parliament.
The main obstacle to holding reelections to the parliament could in
the end be the instinct of selfpreservation of MPs. However, in this
case they will once again have to deal
with the dissatisfaction of socially
active Ukrainians, which means that
the possibility of early parliamentary
elections will become higher.
1
Data of nationwide public opinion poll
conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic
Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov
Center from May 14-15, 2014.
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Conclusions
In closing, after the official inauguration of the new president, Petro Poroshenko
will have all the instruments in his hands to garner the support of the critical mass
of people’s deputies in order to hold early parliamentary elections.
The majority of active Ukrainian citizens are prepared to support him in this
initiative. The key here is how long the military actions will continue in the Donbas
region seeing as the issue of early parliamentary elections could be seriously
aggravated once such actions come to an end.
“Focus jn Ukraine” – weekly informational-analytical news bulletin prepared by the
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation (http://dif.org.ua).
DIF Analysts:
Iryna Bekeshkina
Oleksiy Sydorchuk
Julia Ilchuk
Maria Zolkina
Editor-in-chief:
Iryna Filipchuk