BANK OF ISRAEL
Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information
Press Release
February 19, 2013
The Composite State-of-the-Economy Index for January 2013 increases by 0.2%.
There are changes in the compilation of the Composite Index.
Following a new (2011) classification by the Central Bureau of Statistics of economic
activities and implied changes in most of the monthly statistics, the Composite Stateof-the-Economy Index will now be published in a new format. Changes have been
made in the indicators of the index, and other indicators have been added. The
statistical methodology behind the Index has also been upgraded based on recent
developments in the field. More information regarding the changes in the method of
calculating the index is available at http://www.boi.org.il/en/Research/Pages/ind.aspx.
Based on the new formulation (since January 2013), the Composite Index is compiled
based on ten monthly components: the rate of change in the Industrial Production
Index; the rate of change in the services revenue index excluding the public
administration, education and financial sectors, the rate of change in the trade revenue
index; the rate of change in the imports of consumer products; the rate of change in
imports of manufacturing inputs (excluding fuel); the rate of change in the export of
goods (excluding agriculture); the rate of change in the export of services (excluding
transport and startups); the rate of change in the number of employee posts in the
private sector; the rate of vacant positions out of the total number of employed people
in the business sector1; and the rate of change in the building starts index on a sixmonth moving average. In addition, the Index includes the quarterly change in business
sector product, observed quarterly and not available in real time.
Correlations with Business Product (Since 1998)
Monthly
Quarterly
Old Index
0.76
0.74
New Index
0.80
0.78
Annual
0.79
0.93
1
A mixed-frequency series: Until 2011, the number of vacant employee positions was based on the
quarterly survey of employers by the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Labor. Since 2011, it is based on
the monthly survey by the CBS.
POB 780, 91007 Jerusalem Tel: 972–2–6552713
www.bankisrael.org.il
Figure 1 – The Composite Index – New and old versions alongside the rate of
change in the business growth rate, 1998:1-2012:12
1.7
1.2
0.7
0.2
-0.3
-0.8
04
09 19
- 98
02 19
- 98
07 19
- 99
12 19
- 99
05 19
- 99
10 20
- 00
03 20
- 00
08 20
- 01
01 20
- 01
06 20
- 02
11 20
- 02
04 20
- 02
09 20
- 03
02 20
- 03
07 20
- 04
12 20
- 04
05 20
- 04
10 20
- 05
03 20
- 05
08 20
- 06
01 20
- 06
06 20
- 07
11 20
- 07
04 20
- 07
09 20
- 08
02 20
- 08
07 20
- 09
12 20
- 09
05 20
- 09
10 20
- 10
03 20
- 10
08 20
- 11
01 20
- 11
06 20
- 12
11 20
-2 12
01
2
-1.3
Business Sector Growth
Previous Index
New Index
The Bank of Israel's Composite State-of-the-Economy Index for January 2013
increased by 0.2 percent, a higher rate than recent months. The increase in the index
this month reflects increases in imports of consumer goods and imports of
manufacturing inputs, as well as an increase in the rate of vacant positions out of the
total number of employed people in the business sector. In contrast, the goods and
services export indices declined. There were slight downward revisions to previous
months' rates of change in the index (Table 1), both due to the downward revision in
the Industrial Production Index and due to the transition to the new format.2 Table 2
presents the changes in components of the Index in the past few months.
Table 1: Revisions in the Composite Index
Revision
Previous data
New data
January
0.19
December
0.11
0.07
November
0.11
0.05
October
0.09
0.05
2
We note that due to the change in the series published by the Central Bureau of Statistics, we cannot
calculate the Index in its old format.
POB 780, 91007 Jerusalem Tel: 972–2–6552713
www.bankisrael.gov.il
Table 2: Changes in the index components in recent months
(Monthly percent change, unless otherwise noted)
January December November
Industrial Production Index
-5.3
1.1
Services Revenue Index
-0.6
-0.7
Trade Revenue Index
-0.1
-0.5
Imports of consumer products
9.0
0.7
-2.1
Imports of manufacturing inputs
7.0
-0.8
-2.3
(excluding fuels)
Export of goods
-2.3
-1.9
-1.8
Export of services
-3.8
12.0
1.3
Number of employee posts in the
-0.1
private sector
Rate of vacant employee positions
4.7
-3.9
1.5
out of total number of employed
people in the business sector3
Building starts4
-0.3
October
-1.1
0.6
4.4
-1.2
-1.5
-2.5
-6.7
0.6
-1.0
0.4
For additional data and explanations please click here.
http://www.boi.org.il/en/Research/Pages/ind.aspx
3
Calculated out of the total number of employed people in the business sector and not as a rate of
change.
4
Six-month moving average.
POB 780, 91007 Jerusalem Tel: 972–2–6552713
www.bankisrael.gov.il