Math 160 - Cooley TI Calculator Handout #4 OCC Using the Poisson Distribution on the TI–84+ The Poisson Distribution is a discrete probability distribution that was developed by the French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson in 1837. It is used to calculate the frequency (probability) that a specified event occurs during a particular period of time. Each Poisson Distribution uniquely corresponds to a parameter called (lambda), where: and . The Poisson Distribution on the TI–84+ exists in two forms: Probability Density Function: poissonpdf( Cumulative Distribution Function: poissoncdf( Both the PDF and CDF functions require the same initial information in order to calculate the probability. You will need to specify the parameter and the x–value. Poisson PDF Poisson CDF Used to calculate EXACTLY x. Think P( X x) . Used to calculate AT MOST x. Think P( X x) . Function name: poissonpdf( Function name: poissoncdf( Note: The difference between the PDF function and CDF function is that the CDF is a cumulative sum that calculates all probabilities less than or equal to the value of x. Consider for a particular parameter the difference between: poissonpdf( , 3) and poissoncdf( , 3 ). poissonpdf( , 3 ) P( X 3) represents the probability that EXACTLY 3 specified events occur during a particular period of time. poissoncdf( , 3 ) P( X 3) P( X 0) P( X 1) P( X 2) P( X 3) represents the probability that AT MOST 3 specified events occur during a particular period of time. Thus, for a fixed value of x: The TI 84+ can only calculate P( X x) and P( X x) , yet, there are a few other situations that we encounter. Here is the summary of syntax for those situations: ** SUMMARY OF SYNTAX ** SITUATION 1) 2) 3) 4) P( X x) P( X x ) P( X x ) P(a X b) SYNTAX poissonpdf( , x ) poissoncdf( , x ) 1 ‒ poissoncdf( , x ‒ 1 ) poissoncdf( , b ) ‒ poissoncdf( , a ‒ 1 ) Example: Desert Samaritan Hospital keeps record of emergency room (ER) traffic. Those records indicate that the number of patients arriving between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM has a Poisson distribution with parameter 6.9 . Determine the probability, that on a given day, the number of patients who arrive at the emergency room between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM will be a) exactly 4 b) at most 2 c) 6 or greater d) between 4 and 10 inclusive -1- Math 160 - Cooley Solution 1a TI Calculator Handout #4 OCC We want the probability that the number of patients is exactly 4. Thus, we want P( X 4) , which is a simple pdf (probability density function) on the TI-84+. TI-83+, TI-84+ (2.53MP and earlier) TI-84+ (2.55MP) ▒ Key in: 2nd DISTR select poissonpdf( ENTER ▒ Key in: 2nd DISTR select poissonpdf( ENTER This should be the screen you see. This should be the screen you see. The syntax for: poissonpdf( is ▒ Key in: 6.9 ENTER 4 ENTER poissonpdf( , x ) ▒ Key in: 6.9 , 4 ) ENTER Your cursor is on Paste, so, press ENTER again. Thus, the probability, that on a given day, the number of patients who arrive at the emergency room between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM will be exactly 4 is approximately 0.0952. Press ENTER one more time. Thus, the probability, that on a given day, the number of patients who arrive at the emergency room between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM will be exactly 4 is approximately 0.0952. -2- Math 160 - Cooley Solution 1b TI Calculator Handout #4 OCC We want the probability that the number of patients is at most 2. Thus, we want P( X 2) , which is a simple cdf (cumulative distribution function) on the TI-84+. TI-83+, TI-84+ (2.53MP and earlier) TI-84+ (2.55MP) ▒ Key in: 2nd DISTR select poissoncdf( ENTER ▒ Key in: 2nd DISTR select poissoncdf( ENTER This should be the screen you see. This should be the screen you see. The syntax for: poissoncdf( is ▒ Key in: 6.9 ENTER 2 ENTER poissoncdf( , x ) ▒ Key in: 6.9 , 2 ) ENTER Your cursor is on Paste, so, press ENTER again. Thus, the probability, that on a given day, the number of patients who arrive at the emergency room between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM will be at most 2 is approximately 0.0320. Press ENTER one more time. Thus, the probability, that on a given day, the number of patients who arrive at the emergency room between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM will be at most 2 is approximately 0.0320. -3- Math 160 - Cooley Solution 1c TI Calculator Handout #4 OCC We want the probability that the number of patients is 6 or greater. Thus, we want P( X 6) . Since the calculator calculates up to at most a particular value and not greater or greater than or equal to, then we need to rewrite our inequality of strictly ≤ signs, so that we can answer the question correctly. So, P( X 6) 1 P( X 6) . Since we are dealing with a Poisson distribution, then we know we are taking on discrete values. Thus, P( X 6) 1 P( X 6) 1 P( X 5) . {That’s because P( X 6) P( X 5) }. Now, we just need to calculate 1 P( X 5) on the TI-84+. TI-83+, TI-84+ (2.53MP and earlier) TI-84+ (2.55MP) ▒ Key in: 1 then ‒ & ▒ Key in: 1 then ‒ & ▒ Key in: 2nd DISTR select poissoncdf( ENTER ▒ Key in: 2nd DISTR select poissoncdf( ENTER ▒ Key in: 6.9 ▒ Key in: 6.9 ENTER 5 ENTER&ENTER , 5 ) ENTER Thus, the probability, that on a given day, the number of patients who arrive at the emergency room between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM will be 6 or greater is approximately 0.6863. Solution 1d Thus, the probability, that on a given day, the number of patients who arrive at the emergency room between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM will be 6 or greater is approximately 0.6863. We want the probability that the number of patients is between 4 and 10 inclusive. Thus, we want P(4 X 10) , which is equivalent to the statement P( X 10) P( X 4) which is equivalent to P( X 10) P( X 3) . So, we need to find the difference of two simple cdfs on the TI-84+. TI-83+, TI-84+ (2.53MP and earlier) TI-84+ (2.55MP) ▒ Key in: 2nd DISTR select poissoncdf( ENTER ▒ Key in: 2nd DISTR select poissoncdf( ENTER ▒ Key in: 6.9 , 10 ) ▒ Key in: 6.9 ENTER 10 ENTER&ENTER ▒ Key in: ‒ (Note: minus sign, not negative sign) ▒ Key in: ‒ (Note: minus sign, not negative sign) ▒ Key in: 2nd DISTR select poissoncdf( ENTER ▒ Key in: 2nd DISTR select poissoncdf( ENTER ▒ Key in: 6.9 ▒ Key in: 6.9 ENTER 3 ENTER&ENTER&ENTER , 3 ) ENTER Thus, the probability, that on a given day, the number of patients who arrive at the emergency room between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM will be between 4 and 10 inclusive is approximately 0.8213. Thus, the probability, that on a given day, the number of patients who arrive at the emergency room between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM will be between 4 and 10 inclusive is approximately 0.8213. -4- Math 160 - Cooley TI Calculator Handout #4 OCC Sample TI Calculator Quiz on Poisson Distribution Example: The number of calls received by a car towing service in an hour has a Poisson distribution with parameter = 1.64. Find each of the following using a TI-calculator. Round all answers to three decimal places. Find the probability that in a randomly selected hour the number of calls is: a) exactly 2 a) ________________________ b) at most 2 b) ________________________ c) 5 or greater c) ________________________ d) between 2 and 4 inclusive. d) ________________________ Solution: a) .261 b) .773 c) .026 d) .462 -5-