Department of Industrial Management Science

advertisement
Department of Industrial and Information Management
“Introduction to System Dynamics” (系統動態學概論)
Fall 2009 (98 學年度第 1 學期)
The mission of the Department of Industrial and Information Management is to Cultivate
quality professionals with enthusiasm and global perspectives.
General Program Learning Goals (goals covered by this course are indicated):

1
Graduates should be able to communicate effectively verbally and in writing.

2
Graduates should solve strategic problems with a creative and innovative approach.
3
Graduates should demonstrate leadership skills demanded of a person in authority.

4
Graduates should possess a global economic and management perspective.

5
Graduates should possess the necessary skills and values demanded of a true professional.
Professor:
Office, Phone & E-mail: Office Hours:
Time and Location:
Wei-Tsong Wang Room 61319
Tue. 8:00 am - 12:00 pm Tue. 13:10 – 16:00;
(06)2757575 #53122
or by appointment
Room 61204
wtwang@mail.ncku.edu.tw
I.
Origin and Definition of System Dynamics:
The system dynamics approach originated from the applications of engineering
control system as well as the theory of information feedback systems. One of the
important concepts in the system dynamic approach is complex social system. In 1956,
Jay Forrester, Germeshausen Professor Emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology (MIT) and founder of system dynamics, redesigned an originally
mathematics-driven, engineering control system approach into an analysis methodology
for the simulation of feedback dynamics of social contexts. It is described that the
system dynamics approach, which is with the origins in servomechanisms, engineering,
and management, as a computer-aided approach to policy development and analysis.
From this perspective, it is elaborated that the system dynamics approach is used to
understand the dynamics of complex social system based on the perspective of
information feedback and circular causality. According to Sterman (2000), the
application of System Dynamics methodology on studying complex social systems is
defined as follows:
“System dynamics is a method to enhance learning in complex systems. Just as an
airline uses flight simulators to help pilots learn, system dynamics is, partly, a
method for developing management flight simulators, often computer simulation
models, to help us learn about the dynamic complexity, understand the sources of
policy resistance, and design more effective policies.” (p. 4)
II. Course Objectives:
This course aims to guide individuals to acquire knowledge and skills necessary to
conceptualize dynamic policy problems, develop appropriate simulation models, and use
models for decision making and policy analysis. The core of this course is to understand
1
the significance and usefulness of information feedback and circular causality in
comprehending the behavior of social systems. The course is appropriate and beneficial
for both people who wish to equip themselves with capabilities of understanding studies
that employ computer simulation approach, and for people who wish themselves to
become skilled simulation modelers.
III. Textbook and Readings:
Textbook Sterman, John, D., 2000, Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a
Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill.
ISBN: 0-07-231135-5 (高立圖書公司代理)
Readings Cooke, D. L. (2003). A system dynamics analysis of the Westray mine disaster. System
Dynamics Review, 19(2), 139-166.
Forrester, J. W. & Senge, P. M. (1980). Test for Building Confidence in System
Dynamics Models. TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences, 14, 209-228.
Kim, D. H. (1992). System Archetypes. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications.
Meadows, D. H. (1982). Whole earth models and systems. The CoEvolution Quarterly,
summer issue.
Morecroft, J. D. W. (1984). Strategy Support Models. Strategic Management Journal,
5(3), 215-229.
Richmond, B. (1993). System thinking: critical thinking skills for the 1990s and beyond.
System Dynamics Review, 9(2), 113-133.
Handouts All the handouts, readings, and other teaching materials of this course can be found and
downloaded at the following website:
http://myweb.ncku.edu.tw/~wtwang/course/courses.htm
IV. Requirements:
Individual Assignments There is an individual assignment every one to two weeks and is due for the
upcoming class. Details of individual assignments will be announced by the instructor
later in the class.
Individual Conceptualization Assignments and Presentations The purpose of the individual conceptualization assignments is to obtain experience
in conceptualizing social systems of your interests and identifying problems in the
systems, and eventually lead to a system dynamics research proposal/project for
2
policy/decision-making analysis. There are two related conceptualization assignments
and corresponding presentations in which you have opportunities to get feedbacks from
your fellow students and the instructor on your assignments. Details of individual
conceptualization assignments will be announced by the instructor later in the class.
V.
Tentative Class Schedule:
Date
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Topic
Introduction to system dynamics
Systems thinking, feedback structure,
and policy simulation
Tools of system dynamics modeling:
diagrams, equations, and software.
Model construction and formulation in
Vensim I
(kaibab model)
Model construction and formulation in
Vensim II
(kaibab model; urban model)
Model construction and formulation in
Vensim III
(urban model)
Generic structures: stocks & flows
(urban model)
Dynamics of stocks & flows
Technical tools
(urban model; epidemic model)
Delays and Oscillations
(market growth model)
Oscillations
(commodities model)
Conceptualization
(fish banks model)
Generic processes (co-flow & aging
chain) and system archetypes
Project Presentation I
System archetypes
Week 16 Communicating structure: cognitive
maps and policy structures
Week 17 Model Evaluation and Validation
Week 18 Project Presentations II
Readings
Syllabus
Richmond, 1993
Assignment
Due
None
None
Sterman Ch. 1,
5.1-5.4
Sterman Ch. 2, 3
Assignment 1
Sterman Ch. 3,
4.1.1, 4.1.2
Assignment 2
Sterman Ch. 4
Assignment 3
Sterman Ch. 6
Assignment 4
Sterman Ch. 7, 9.2
Sterman Ch. 8
Assignment 5
Assignment 6
Sterman Ch. 4.1.3,
4.3.3, 11.1–11.5
Sterman Ch. 20
None
Sterman Ch.3
Assignment 7
None
None
Sterman Ch.11, 12, None
13.1-13.2.7
Sterman Ch. 3
None
Kim, Meadows
Assignment 8 Proposal 1
Morecroft, 1984
None
Cooke, 2003;
None
Forrester & Senge,
1980;
Sterman Ch. 21
Sterman Ch. 13,
Assignment 9 14.1-14.2
Proposal 2
3
VI. Grading Policy:


Individual assignments: 55 %. No late turned-in assignment will be accepted.
Group conceptualization assignments and presentations: 35 %. No late turned-in
assignment will be accepted.
 Class attendance/participation: 10 %.
 All assignments must be printed on recycled papers. Luxury covering or binding is
unnecessary.
 There are no exams in the course.
Individual
Assignment
55%
COMMU
CPSI
 Oral Commu./ Presentation
 Written Communication
 Creativity and Innovation
 Problem Solving
 Analytical Skills
LEAD
 Leadership & Ethic
 Social responsibility
GLOB
 Global Awareness
VSP
 Values, Skills & Profess.
 Information Technology
 Management Skills
30%
20%
20%
Group
Project
35%
10%
30%
10%
10%
10%
Class
Participation
10%
30%
20%
10%
50%
20%
10%
10%
10%
4
Download