Practicum in Portfolio Management Fina 5132, Fall 2005 Fina 5232, Spring 2006 Instructor: Professor Rex Thompson FB430A Class: 354MB MW 3:30 to 4:50 (see outline for exact dates) Background: The Ann Rife Cox and Nancy Chambers Underwood Investment Funds are investment portfolios managed solely by Cox School students. Currently, the combined funds have assets of about $6.5 million, representing one of the largest and oldest student-managed portfolios in the United States. Course Objective: The goal of the course is to give students hands-on money management experience that culminates at the end of the year in an annual report describing the entire management process as applied to the Cox Endowment Fund. Six major areas of fund management are covered: (1) the client interface, (2) an investment outlook for the coming year, (3) asset allocation, (4) the equity portfolio profile, (5) individual equity security transactions, (6) performance evaluation. The first term FINA 5132 focuses on getting to know the existing equity portfolio and building the analysis required for equity sale transactions. FINA 5232 covers the rest of the analysis and the writing of the annual report. Research analyst reports and the final annual report are intended to compare favorably with reports provided by top money managers and street analysts around the world. The class presents its recommendations and opinions in various forums including a presentation to the Investment Committee of the Board of Trustees. To view the web page and annual report from past years, enter through the class number within the Cox School web site. Texts and Readings: Background review is covered in any good Investments text. It is presumed that you have access to one or several such texts. A good choice is either Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Investments (BKM), or Essentials of Investments (BKME). A course packet of readings is provided. Readings with asterisk (*) are optional. Check chapter headings as we go and fill in your background proactively as needed. The outline shows chapters from BKME (2004). There are limitless popular books on the subject of "running money". Read any good books lately? Let us know. Grading: Course grades will be based on contributions in six areas: Assignments and intermediate stage work Infrastructure work Sector Reports/Presentations Sell/Hold Reports/Presentations Productive Class Participation Peer Evaluations There is flexibility on how each student chooses to get involved and make a contribution. I will try to accumulate a running point total as the semester unfolds with the scale 100 = A, 90 = A-, 85 = B+, 80 = B. Students who are fully involved shouldn’t have any trouble earning 100. But students who just sit there, don’t take ownership of anything, don’t show any leadership and don’t have an impact on the thinking of the class won’t get there. 2 Presentations: The course involves real time investment decision-making. In the first term, the focus is on sectors and equity transactions from the existing portfolio. Each student participates in a sector presentation and at least one equity sell/hold presentation. The sell/hold presentations are accompanied by a report that must be distributed to the class either during the class period before the presentation or through WebCT and email at least two days in advance. This allows the rest of the class time to review the material. The other presentations can be given with summary sheets handed out during the presentations. In the Spring term, external presentations made by the class to the Investments Committee of the SMU Board of Trustees and the members of the Women's Financial Series are our opportunity to showcase our analysis. These are accompanied by an annual report that describes the entire investment process. Attendance: Attendance is crucial to the success of the course. Given the importance of classroom discussion, it is imperative that all students contribute their ideas. Attendance is counted, informally, as part of class participation. Professional Standards: Because the class manages a real investment portfolio, we are accepting fiduciary responsibility for the portfolio entrusted to us. We are all expected to conduct ourselves with the highest level of professional and ethical standards. Assume that our discussions are confidential unless clearly indicated otherwise. Motions: Policy decisions such as buy and sell orders are decided by a majority vote of the students in attendance, exclusive of the individuals making the recommendation. Have Fun: In our efforts to propose and implement a meaningful investment strategy, we need a constant set of checks and balances involving the participation of everyone. We will have to smile at our own mistakes and be constructive in our comments about the analysis of others. Moreover, many of our decisions will revolve around judgment calls that are inherently qualitative and subjective. We need everyone’s point of view to reach consensus. As quoted in the preface to an older version of Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Essentials of Investments (BKME) "Knowledge comes from taking things apart, but wisdom comes from putting things together." In this course we attempt the latter. This course will follow University policies for Disability Accommodations, Religious Observance and Excused Absences for University Extracurricular Activities. 2 3 Date Topic and Assignment (* = optional or background; *** = assignment or presentation due) Mon. Aug. 22 Introduction and overview of course Analyst assignments to sectors Sources of information about financial markets Background on student managed portfolios Readings 1.0 Our management team 1.1 The current portfolio/Annual Report: Spring 2005 1.2 Sources of information On Line and at the BIC/Library 1.3 S&P Industry Sectors vs. Cox Portfolio 1.4 Student Portfolio Management 10.1 AIMR code of ethics and professional conduct Mon. Aug. 29 Our code of conduct *** salient aspects of the AIMR code Getting to know our Sectors: building a sector report Collecting Stock Information 2.1 Sector Outline 2.2 Example Sector Report: Tech Software Wed Sep. 7 CLASS MEETS WED. LABOR DAY WEEK Salient issues in applying financial theory to stock valuation Breaking down an analyst report Readings 3.1 Valuation Issues – a synopsis and review 3.2 An Analyst Report Scorecard 4.1 Introducing an equity quant. workbook: HDI Mon. Sep. 12 Applying Stock Valuation Tools on the Existing Portfolio Profiling a stock, a sector and a portfolio Comparable Company Analysis Earnings Forecast and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Readings BKME: Equity analysis Ch. 11.7, 12, 13 3.3 Some sample analyst reports 3.4 Wharton’s Fundamental Equity Analysis Primer 4.2 Comp/profile sheet examples from the quant. workbook Mon. Sep. 19 Valuing the industrial composite for baseline assumptions Toward best practice *** A preliminary profile sheet due 4.3 Valuing the VL Industrial Composite: DCF from the quant workbook 4.4 More examples from DCF worksheets of the quant. workbook 4.5 Best Practice talking points Wed. Sep. 21 Sector office hours Mon. Sep. 26 ***Sector Reports and Short Presentations Due (I. A. and B.) Wed. Sep. 28 ***Sector Presentations Cont’d. 3 4 Mon Oct. 3 Stock Tools Review/Q and A (Comparables, Ratios, Earnings Forecast, DCF, Analyst Report, Slides, Primary Research) *** First draft of Quant workbook due Mon Oct. 10 FALL BREAK Wed. Oct. 12 Relighting the fire. Mon. Oct. 17 Perspectives on stock selection Readings BKME: Anomalies of the EMH Ch. 19 5.1 Principal investment styles 5.2 Value vs. Growth Investing ... 5.3 Contrarian Investment 5.4 Overview of the anomalies literature Mon. Oct.. 24 Gearing up for sale recommendations / Discussion of Primary Research Mon. Oct. 31 Guest Speaker - Equity Analyst, Gretchen Teagarden Mon. Nov 6 (Sectors 1&2)***Hold/Sell Presentations and Reports Due (II. A. B.) Mon. Nov. 13 (Sectors 3&4)***Hold/Sell Presentations and Reports Due – (II. A. B Mon. Nov. 20 (Sectors 5&6)***Hold/Sell Presentations and Reports Due – (II. A. B.) Mon. Nov. 27 Gearing up for Spring 4 5 Course outline for Fina 5232 This outline is a continuation of the fall outline for Fina 5132 Mon Jan. 23 Building an Investment Outlook for 2006 Value Line, Standard and Poor’s, and Other "Outlooks" Readings BKM: Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis Ch. 17 6.0 Components of an economic outlook and an investment outlook 6.1 Outlook Information Template 6.2 The year 2005 in review: WSJ 6.3 Broad economic and investment outlooks 6.4 Outlooks with a clear investment focus Mon. Jan. 30 Building a client relationship 10.1 AIMR code of ethics and standards of professional conduct 10.2 AIMR Endowment Policy 10.3 Perspectives on endowment objectives 10.4 SMU Investment Objectives and Policies Wed. Feb. 1 [Guest: Bill Akmentins, CFA, Treasurer’s Office SMU] Mon. Feb. 6 Meeting the client: [Guest: Liz Williams, Treasurer SMU] Mon. Feb. 13 Class discussion of economic predictions and data Mon. Feb. 20 Long Term Asset Allocation Strategy: Applying Efficient Frontier Analysis A basic spreadsheet with historical data: Frontier Readings 7.0 Contents of a thorough asset allocation recommendation 7.1 Some current opinions 7.2 The record of allocation recommendations 10.4 SMU University guidelines 7.3 Allocations of pensions and endowments 7.4 Using the Frontier software *7.5 What happens when inputs are measured with error 7.6 Homework assignment on Asset Allocation Mon. Feb. 27 Discussion of Asset Allocation recommendation for 2006. ***Allocation HW Due *8.1 An overview of fixed income management Mon. Mar. 6 Performance Measurement Assignment: Performance for 2005 Readings BKM: Performance measurement Ch. 24 *9.1 Historical performance of managed money *9.2 Industry Performance Presentation Standards 9.3 5 yr historical performance data and HW 5 6 Mon. Mar. 13 Discussion of performance HW and assigning of performance write-up. *** First draft of client letter, outlook and asset allocation ***Performance HW due Mon Mar. 13 SPRING BREAK Mon. Mar. 20 ***Begin equity transactions Wed. Mar. 22 ***Equity transactions continued Mon. Mar. 27 ***Equity transactions continued Wed. Mar. 29 ***Equity transactions continued Mon. Apr. 3 ***Equity transactions continued Mon. Apr. 10 Final transactions and loose ends ***Near final drafts of sections in the annual report ***Near final Portfolio Profile Mon. Apr. 17 Final preparation of final documents for Investment Committee WFS Dry Run (Participants Only) Thurs. Apr. 20 WFS (Participants only required to attend – all invited) Mon.Apr.24 Final presentation dry run/critique and final comments Tues. Apr. 25 Presentation to investment committee 4:00-5:00pm 6