Alternative Globalisations/Advanced Global Politics R. James Ferguson © 2007 Lecture 1: The New Global Politics: Alternative Outlooks in a Period of Contested Globalisation Topics: 1. Transition Beyond the Old Inter-National Relations 2. Change: The Expected and Unexpected 3. Global Politics: The Basic Description of Globalisation 4. Incomplete Globalisation as Global-Dialogue 5. Alternative Outlooks and Institutions 6. Bibliography, Resources, and Further Reading 1. Transition Beyond the Old Inter-National Relations International relations at all levels were rapidly changing in the last quarter of the 20th century and in the early 21st century. Likewise, ‘International Relations’ and ‘International Politics’ as disciplines have been undergoing rapid change during the last two decades, with a large range of alternative viewpoints being developed by practitioners, scholars and activists. Ironically, the thinking of academics, foreign policy advisers, political activists, mainstream economic advisers (see Davies 2004; Soros 2002) and government policy groups have probably been adapting more slowly that the real changes they have to face in the world around them. International Relations, as the term ‘inter-national’ indicates, was a discipline which concerned itself originally with the relations among states. It was therefore concerned with issues such as war, diplomacy, power politics and state order. These issues of ‘high politics’ were viewed as the most important shapers of the world, past, present, and into the foreseeable future. The state was focused on because it was viewed as the main international actor, and as religious authority declined, as the main source of legitimacy. With the disastrous outcomes of World War I and World War II, the main issue seemed to resolve itself on the theme of power, a trend entrenched in thinkers such as Hans Morgantheau (1985), policy practitioners such as Henry Kissinger (1994), and the realist and neo-realistic schools of thought (taken further in lecture 2). These views were entrenched and developed further during the Cold War superpower competition between the U.S. and Soviet Union. Such ‘realist’ thinkers argued that the state was the main international actor, the only source of genuine legitimacy, and that in a basically anarchical world order of high competition and regular conflict, the state and its interests had to be preserved at all cost. The term anarchical here refers to the concept that no true source of authority or legitimacy existed above the self-interest of states, leading to a lack of genuine international society, a concept developed by Hedley Bull (Bull 2000). The idea here was that in spite of some inter-governmental and supra-national actors (the UN, the EU etc.), there was no higher source of global order than states and agreements made among them, based on national interest. International Relations, 1 therefore, particularly in British and U.S. scholarship, tended to be viewed as an extension of foreign affairs, foreign relations and foreign policy. International Relations was therefore studied mainly to allow the proper formulation and prescription of foreign policy, e.g. how the U.S. could retain hegemonic control in the Persian Gulf or help chart a road towards a wider Middle Eastern settlement, remain the dominant power in the Pacific, or how other nations can be coerced on particular issues (for a sophisticated account of coercive bargaining, see Lebow 1998). Countries had to either develop their own power resources, or align with those who had power. On this basis, the main issue for national leaders remained the issue of developing, maintaining and using power, conceived of primarily in political and military terms, with a secondary recognition of the role of wealth in support of these kinds of power. However, by the late 1980s several trends began to emerge which shifted international relations, in the factual arena and in its ideas, away from this dominant theme of the nation and hard-power relations. These revisionist themes, include the following: The Cold War itself, which dominated European and then world affairs from 19491989, was based on the notion of hostile camps armed with nuclear weapons. Though small, useable weapons (which one might dare use) were conceived of in the second half of this period, the basic concept of deterrence was dominant. In classical nuclear deterrence, this assumed that a major conflict between nuclear powers could lead to atomic war, and in the classical system of deterrence lead to mutually-assured destruction (MAD). The problem that this scenario was it involved the development of enormous nuclear arsenals and military power which by definition could not be used. If the policy of deterrence was working, there should never be a need to ‘nuke’ anybody. In effect, this moved the whole issue of power onto the development of a massive military potential, backed by a sophisticated notion of game-theory in which you assumed that the enemy was just as rational as you were. In other words, the theory could only work for the Americans (or British and French) if they correctly understood the thinking and strategies of their Soviet and Chinese opponents. Strategists were led back to thinking about strategic culture, leadership styles, and political systems in opposing as well as allied countries. As a result, hard-headed ‘independent’ policy institutes which helped provide research that was utilised by Western governments, e.g. the RAND Corporation, the Brookings Institute, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (London) began analysing a wide range cultural, historical, and political and social factors (see for example Langer 1972; Boylan 1982; Harding 1984; Harding 1987; Harding 1993; Harding 1994; Dupont 1996). The first move in this direction was a paper studying ‘strategic culture’ of the Soviets made by Synder in 1977, published by the RAND corporation, and this became a major secondary theme in even conservative journals in the 1990s (See Synder 1977; Dellios 1997b, pp202-204). From 2001, we may see a return to a more sophisticated version of this contest through the debate over the deployment of a Missile Defence system by the U.S. (as well as possible extended missile defences - TMD, Theatre Missile Defence Systems, for Japan and possibly even Taiwan). Such a system has serious implications for China, Russia, and Europe, leading to another round of analysis of motivation, strategic culture and capability among the nuclear powers (see Lieber & Press 2006; Wilkening 2000; Evans 2004). Likewise, there is now a major effort to 2 understand the motivation of thinking of government actions in states such as India, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea (especially through 2003-2007). From 2006, debate has begun to emerge as to whether a new system of nuclear balance is emerging in Asia, in large measure outside the old nuclear club and outside of effective regulation by the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), a trend still developing due even as India and North Korea have engaged in very different types of dialogue on this issue. If Iran or North Korea's leadership is viewed as inherently 'unpredictable', this might lead to a more robust effort to contain or erode their ability to project power. Ironically, such defence systems can cause a period severe instability before they are fully deployed, and do not deal with other threats such as international terrorism, nor a host of other transnational problems (see further below; for limitations of the so-called Revolution in Military Affairs (RIM) for the low intensity conflicts (LICs) that may become more common in the 21st century, see Jordaan & Vrey 2003). Likewise, strategic culture has also had engage with the ideas and motivations of non-state actors who have emerged as political and military opponents over the last seventy years, including revolutionary, guerrilla and terrorist groups. At the same time, this trend indicates that military and technological power, in new forms, remain important elements of power for some states. The end of the Cold War lead to massive changes in the international system, as well as greatly surprising most politicians, strategists, and international relations thinkers. Almost no one predicted the major changes of the 1988-1992 period, at least not so early. With the slowing and end of the Cold War (though tensions among Russia, the ‘West’ and China and the U.S. have been somewhat revived through 2005-2007, they are of a totally different order to the 1949-1987 period), several major changes have occurred. Although security and defence issues remain important, military power is now viewed as one potential among many sources of strength and influence. The dominant conception of power which has emerged since the 1980s has been the priority of economic power, based on national wealth, trade, technological innovation, and influence in the international financial system. Ralph Pettman has characterised one version of this system as the ‘balance of productivity’ (see Pettman 1991). Other approaches try to combine economic and resources issues as part of a more broadly based notion of power, conceptualised either as comprehensive national strength, and comprehensive security, including a wide range of factors: population, resources, economic strength, military forces, education levels, diplomatic prestige (these concepts have been deployed at different times by China, Japan, and NATO, Li 1990). Likewise, the international news of the 1990s is full of discussions of international trade and finance organisations (the World Trade Organisation – WTO; the International Monetary Fund – IMF), of economic crises (Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia, Argentina), economic trends (e.g. trade and investment flows), and growing energy demands of rising powers such as China and India. Wealth is seen as basis for the power and international influence of modern powers such as the European Union, Germany, Japan, and ultimately, the US itself. Prospects of future ‘great powers’ are also assessed in terms of economic growth and future parity purchasing power (PPP), e.g. the prospect of China becoming the world’s largest economy by 2025 if not earlier (for various estimate, see Dellios 2005; Cheng 2003). In such a setting, technological, economic and institutional innovation become key factors in shaping the global system, as well as strongly shaping regional and bilateral relations (for one such analysis of China and the WTO, see Cheng 2003). 3 Many policies and decisions that influence regional and global now operate through large corporations or regional and international organisations. They are inherently transnational, often working beyond the confines of individual states with a speed and volume that dwarf all but the largest national economies (see Strange 1996). Thus, even in the early 1990s, 51 of the world's largest economic entities were corporations (with transnational operations and dispersed production), while 49 were nations (Davies 2004, p144). As such, many of the organisations created at the end of World War II (the Bretton Woods Institutions such as the IMF and World Bank) may no longer be able to regulate the world system as effectively as had been hoped (see Stevenson 2000). Over the 2001-2007 period this viewpoint has been partially modified, with the US and its coalition 'partners' showing the operation of military predominance in the interventions of Afghanistan and Iraq, in part using strategic power for defensive reasons, in part to shape access to key resources such as oil (for the revival of 'realist' orientation since 2001, see Haque 2003). However, in the long run economic, energy and resource factors are still central in shaping power and foreign policy in the 21st century, but now run in transnational settings (see Leech 2006; Kleveman 2003; Klare 2002). Furthermore, globalisation also allows transnational illegal networks and trades to flourish, with issues such as arms, drugs, and people smuggling emerging as major problems alongside money laundering (estimated at running around 2-5% of global GDP) and the theft of intellectual property (Naim 2003). These problems cannot be controlled by the efforts of single nations (see Naim 2003). A third major trend has been a recognition that a whole range of issues that were once viewed as of secondary importance, i.e. ‘low politics’, now have a stronger role in driving change and in structuring crises. These include: - - - environmental concerns have become more prominent, e.g. the severe air pollution or haze affecting Southeast Asia for parts of 1997-1999, widespread pollutive damage in Russia, Eastern Europe, India and China. Since 1992, there have serious efforts to forge an international agenda aimed at managing global environmental problems (via tools such as the Kyoto Protocol and Agenda 21). climate change, impacting on agriculture, fisheries, and patterns of risk and insurance, e.g affecting Pacific and Indian Ocean Islands, parts of Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Pakistan and the Arctic. If sustained, climate change may affect the security of entire nations and regions. Even if part of longer natural cycles, human activity may be exacerbating the rapidity of these cycles. This may then be linked to issues of crisis management and the resilience of human institutions to a range of disasters. However, even with the formal coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol with Russian ratification from November 2004, these have had a limited global impact (taken up later lectures; see further Stavins 2004). Through 2006-2007 the reality of climate change has been accepted, as has the notion of ongoing pressures on the use of fossil fuels, leading to a renewed debate on energy sources and usage in China, the U.S. and Australia. control and management of ocean and coastal resources, both through control of exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and open ocean areas, part of a wider 'global commons' debate (see for example Environmental Policy and Law 2001). Fisheries, undersea gas and oil fields, and rights of passage for 4 - - - - - military vessels are part of a complex debate about management of coast and deep see resources. migration, populations movements, refugees and illegal workers. Movement of human being remains one of the most poorly regulated and problematic areas of national and transnational governance, and continue to challenge developed economies in Europe and North America. poverty and under-development, often as sources of wider political and military instability (addressed in later lectures). issues affecting women and children as poor, dis-empowered or exploited segments of world society (See Pettman 1991). In this setting, gender issues and challenges to traditional systems of authority and the use of force have been brought forward by feminist theory (see for example Tickner 2005; Tickner 1997; Lenz 2003). uncontrolled urban development and urban crises, leading to a debate as to whether the growing number of megacities are truly sustainable (taken up in lecture 10). health issues which have a global impact, e.g. AIDS, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), Avian bird flu, malaria (which from 1989 has re-emerged as a major problem, reported in 107 countries up to 2003, World Malaria Report 2005), the re-emergence of tuberculosis, the global cost of poor health systems, immunisation issues, the cost and subsidising of generic drugs to make them more widely available, the evolution of new viruses, and the enforcement of biological warfare conventions. These trends suggest global vulnerabilities based flows in the global system that need better detection and management (see Dudley 2006 for one example). culture and civilisational dialogue verses patterns of political conflict in international relations. These factors were explicitly recognised as an important in UN conferences since 1993, but remain controversial in relation to the causes of modern conflict, e.g. the role of Islam, and varying degrees of tolerance in political systems (Huntington 1993; Huntington 1996; Iriye 1997; Hudson 1997; discussed further in week 4). agendas concerning new communication technologies, e.g. the possible divide between information-rich and information poor communities. This has led in part to a 'new diplomacy' and a new way of waging international political and civil campaigns, as well as providing a means for e-commerce and accelerated international financial flows. A new 'public diplomacy' driven in part through agencies such as CNN and public relations firms, has shifted the way politicians and governments relate to domestic and international audiences (see for example Ross 2003; Maluf 2005). As noted by Christopher Ross: Modern diplomacy, once a largely one-dimensional, nation-to-nation process, is now a multi-dimensional enterprise in which so-called "non-state" actors and foreign publics play an increasingly prominent role. The latest Iraq war is the most dramatic, but hardly the first, example of this phenomenon. The rise in influence of non-state actors has been paralleled by two other equally important developments: globalization - the integration of peoples, societies, and economies - and information technologies that now link nations, cultures, and societies in complex and unprecedented ways. This is the transformed international environment in which public diplomacy now operates. In such a world, the public-diplomacy quotient of virtually every 5 foreign policy issue today has risen dramatically, whether regarding a trade negotiation over genetically modified corn, the reconstruction of Iraq, or the threat of HTV/AIDS. (Ross 2003) The effects (negative and positive) of these new technologies often influence different countries, regions and classes differentially. Likewise, the impact of these trends on warfare, intelligence gathering, human rights, and diplomacy, has yet to be fully explored in the public domain. These changes have taken place alongside two opposing trends that have nonetheless placed great pressure on traditional models of the nation-state. These are the trends of localisation alongside globalisation. Localisation is the notion of small regions, cities or communities becoming more autonomous and pro-active, i.e. engaging people in local culture and empowering local institutions. The clearest example of this has been the emphasis on the empowerment of local regions in Europe below the level of the nation, e.g. Scotland, Wales, Catalonia (officially an autonomous region of Spain from 1979, with increasing degrees of independence through 2006), parts of Northern Italy (seeking more economic and cultural independence through political movements such as the ‘Northern League’), and Corsica. These regions have either been allocated more regional autonomy (Scotland, Catalonia) or groups in these regions are demanding more independence, sometimes by violent means, e.g. until recent agreements, the Basques in Spain. Likewise, the character of states and local culture groups within India has also made the unity of India one of the key problems for that state, with tensions in areas such as Assam, the Punjab (Sikh secessionists), Kashmir (Muslim-Hindu disturbances), and for Tamils in the south. Localisation is also found in reborn trends towards nationalism and ethnic nationalism in parts of Europe and Eurasia, where small communities, no longer submerged in large Federal states such as Yugoslavia and the USSR, now seek to secede and retain their own national sovereignty. These trends have created small, reborn states such as Croatia and Latvia, and also strong aspirations towards statehood or greater autonomy in regions such as Kosovo, Chechnya and Tartarstan (in Russia). Other examples of localisation include the huge powers that major trading cities now wield (Singapore, Hong Kong, London, Shanghai, New York) often operating alongside rather than below national foreign policy. These major trading and financial hubs are now linked in a network of World Cities, which are one of the sources of globalisation, international information flows and transnational decision making (see lecture 10). The countervailing trend is globalisation, whereby new trade and communication links have created an international order where individuals, goods, services and ideas are moved across national boundaries (see further below). This trend of globalisation, which still remains uneven around the world, is often linked to the concept of complex interdependence, whereby different nations are often interlinked economically, financially and politically which means that they are often restrained by these linkages (see further Wittkopf & Kegley 1995; Holsti 1995). The exact nature and implications of globalisation are highly controversial and will be discussed briefly below. The important thing about localisation and globalisation is that they are often connected. Local groupings can often gain more significance in the context of supranational organisations, e.g. Scotland within the context of the EU. Likewise, a range of non-government organisations often gain importance through connecting the local with the global, e.g. earlier Red Cross operations in East Timor were effective in linking on the ground 6 problems in the then troubled part of Indonesia through a respected and relatively neutral international organisation. INGOs, International Non-Government Organisations, often succeed by making a local issues a global affair: sometimes this process is dubbed as the 'glocal'. Thus aid agencies often flag, monitor or publicise ongoing or emerging crises, signalling problems that need greater attention from governments IGOs (see Relief Web at http://www.reliefweb.int/ for one active example). Taken from a different angle, this has led to the idea of the nexus of the local and the global, with local and global developments often linked ('glocalization'; see Thornton 2000 for some of the debates over this term). Likewise, globalisation is sometimes seen as a threat, sometimes leading to a rebound in local nationalism. Key players in the nexus among local, national, regional and global affairs include not just states, IGOs (Inter-governmental Organisations) and corporations, but INGOs (International Non-governmental Organisations). Thousands of NGOs and Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) have been active influencing UN policies, global environmental agenda, the land-mines ban, and the formation of the International Criminal Court (as well as influencing flows of national aid and foreign policy). This has accelerated, especially from 1945 onwards, resulting in a key force in the 'new diplomacy' with strong interactions between state and non-state actors, with the new political environment providing a range of opportunities for NGOs to gain funding and roles, often from governments (see Reimann 2006; Davenport 2002). In sum, these trends have created a dynamic and complex international landscape, which has rapidly transformed the global system over the last fifteen years. Yet most of our large-scale institutions and the everyday concepts used to analyse, moderate or mould the international system were created in earlier periods. The UN, the Security Council, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund were all created during or shortly after the end of World War II. Likewise, notions such as ‘real-politik’ (power politics), ‘balance of power’, traditional patterns of diplomacy and international law, were first developed in the 16-19th centuries, and refined for international usage during two World Wars and the Cold War. One of the major questions facing us is whether these established organisations and ideas can readily be adapted to find solutions in the current period, i.e. via the reform in governance that has occurred through the 1970s-1990s (see Loughlin 2004). As we shall see, institutional change, redefinition, and goal-reformulation are possible, but not always successful. Sometimes new and alternative ways of looking at and dealing with issues are required. Here international relations has to remain creative and adaptive. We will explore these themes in your seminars, and in the following lecture series: 1. Introduction: Alternative Outlooks in a Period of Turbulent Globalisation 2. International Relations from Thucydides to World Systems Theory 3. Transnational Realities: Trade, Diaspora, and Migration 4. The Contested Role of Culture In International Relations 7 5. Economic Cultures: From Reconstruction to Growth to Instability 6. The Challenge of Environmental Sustainability: Risks and Prospects 7. Alternative Global Forces: Islamic International Relations and Transnational Flows (Case Study) 8. Soft and Hard Power: Case Study - The Chinese Century 1949-2049 9. Environment, Resources and Development 10: The World City: Singapore, Shanghai, Berlin, Dakar and Beyond 11. Scripts for Cooperation and Protest: People Power, Low-Violence Strategies, and Cosmopolitan Governance 12. Conclusion: The New International Relations From Crisis Management to Strategic Adaptation 2. Change: The Expected and Unexpected The late 20th century was a period of dynamic change and rapid global modernisation based on an ongoing knowledge explosion, with some suggesting that this trend will accelerate through the 21st century (see Hobsbawm 1994; Friedman 2005). In the last decade, certain changes have been predicted, but a wide range of changes have emerged which have not been expected. Some of these changes were so unexpected that they were hard to detect and analyse until they were well underway, surprising policy makers, politicians and academics alike. Since the end of World War II, a large number of international trends were predicted, and in many cases actively planned for by both national governments and international groups. Expected and planned for changes have included: The evolution and expansion of the roles of the United Nations and its agencies, even as the role of the UNSC and UNESCO are disputed. The emergence of an integrated Europe, which ran a difficult but planned-for process of deepening and broadening to include more nations and functions from 1951-2004 (this process, formally running from the Treaty of Paris, of course, is far from problem-free). This was one of the most important supranational experiments globally, passing up some elements of sovereignty to the level above the state, but in recent years also allowing greater dialogue with civil society and NGOs. Through 2005-2007 the limits of this process began to emerge, in part via tensions over the future entry of Europe, and problems in building a single European constitution. The development of active regional organisations, e.g. ASEAN, ARF, NAFTA, APEC, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), OAS, Mercosur, which have 8 developed trade, security and political agendas. In part, these organisations have been either viewed as stepping stones towards global level-agreements, or as buffers against the effects of accelerated globalisation. The continued rapid development of science, technology, weapon systems, computer and communication capabilities. This has revolutionised the nature of warfare, finance, economic competition and international cooperation through civil society networks. Continued but uneven global population growth, combined with uneven economic development. India in May 2000 passed the one billion level in population, and in the same month China announced stricter child birth policies to try to stabilise population at the 1.3 billion mark. High growth rates still are a common feature of many developing countries, especially in parts of Africa, and have implications for poverty and environment sustainability (covered in later lectures). Ironically, Japan, much Europe and now Russia have either zero or slightly negative population growth, leading to major debates about the implications of these demographic differentials across regions and religious groupings. (for one controversial discussion see Ferguson 2006). It has been suggested that world population growth rates are already slowing and may stabilise around 2050, in part driven by increasing urbanisation which changes birth rates (Carbon Positive 2007). Relatively slow but real growth in the global economy, and trends towards the creation of a truly global marketplace. Though growth was sluggish through 20012002, one estimate suggests '4.4 per cent a year in 2005 and 2006' (National Institute Economic Review 2005). It also notes that: 'Although the global economy is slowing from last year's hectic GDP increase of 5.1 per cent, the outlook for the three years to 2007 is for robust growth averaging nearly 4 1/2 per cent a year. However, consumer price inflation is generally picking up, partly as a result of higher oil prices but also because the global economy is operating at roughly full capacity' (National Institute Economic Review 2005). World GDP grew by 4.3% in 2005 and was estimated at 4.9% for 2006 (IMF 2006). These trends, however, are highly uneven, with some countries and regions gaining (globalisation-from-above), and others finding themselves needing to catch up to global norms and developments (see Ravenhill 1998). However, a wide range of dramatic changes have occurred which were not readily predicted, and were not expected. In many cases these changes, even when basically positive, were viewed as highly problematic. A small sample of these trends include: The dramatic and rapid end of the Cold War, largely triggered off by Gorbachev’s leadership (1987-1990), was not predicted within its short time-frame. The collapse of the Soviet Union into 15 different nations at the end of 1991 was so sudden that it took most Western nations by surprise, leading to fears of massive destabilisation. The opening of China and its adoption of aspects of capitalism, leading to a greatly empowered People’s Republic of China that has sought to play a stronger role in East Asia and in the global system (1978-2007). This also involves strong PRC 9 needs that impact on the global system, e.g. for economic growth, continued exports, imports of energy, and an effort to shift towards a somewhat greener economy from 2006. Continuing patterns of uneven globalisation and underdevelopment, whereby some countries remain desperately poor, e.g. Sudan, Somalia, Bangladesh, in spite of movements towards a world-wide neo-liberal capitalism and numerous humanitarian interventions. This means that the type of development program used by most agencies and by bilateral aid programs remain highly controversial. Even poverty reduction and food aid policies remain fiercely debated (for some debates in Kiely 2004; 2001, see Blustein 2001; Struck 2001). Even at the level of basic nutrition and intake of calories, there are serious inequities in the global system, with ongoing concerns about basic food security and clean water provision in many poorer countries. Trends in some regions through the 1990s moved back towards exclusive forms of nationalism, ethnic conflict, and the use of war as a state-building tool (e.g. in former Yugoslavia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Rwanda). For a time, it was feared that new forms of 'tribalism' and international anarchy would undermine regions of stability, and create separate zones of relative peace and zones of war The re-emergence of genocide and ethnic cleansing, e.g. in Bosnia, Kosovo and Rwanda, despite the lessons of World War II and fifty years of activity by the UN and various humanitarian conventions and organisations. Some see this as a serious failure for international law and the international system. Efforts to address this problem, whether through specially constituted International Criminal Tribunals (e.g. for the Former Yugoslavia and Rwanda), or the developing International Criminal Court (ICC), have yet to be perfected as strong preventive tools, though the ICC has begun investigations and initial prosecutions concerning human rights abuses in North Uganda (with prosecutions against Joseph Kony and leaders of Uganda's Lord's Resistance Army), Congo and Sudan, including 'Ahmad Muhammad Harun, a former junior interior minister in the Sudanese government and head of its Darfur security desk and now, astonishingly, minister for humanitarian affairs; and Ali Muhammad Ali Abd-al-Rahman, better known by his nom de guerre, Ali Kushayb, a leader of the janjaweed' (Economist 2007a; for the initial debates on the ICC, see Tucker 2001; Novogrodsky 2005). Growing or sustained gaps between rich and poor in many developing countries, e.g. India, Brazil and most recently Argentina), and continued serious poverty in the bottom tier (15-40%) of one third of the world (e.g. in much of South Asia and central Africa), even as there is some reduction of extreme poverty in parts of East Asia and Latin America. Debates have since emerged as to whether globalisation and increased trade flows have reduced poverty, or entrenched a poor rural tier in debt ridden countries (Saul 2005). In spite of strong trends towards reduction and control of nuclear armaments (treaties such as the NPT, CTBT, START I, II & III, INF), a number of nations remain armed with sizeable numbers of nuclear weapons (the nuclear club). There is at least one ‘undeclared’ nuclear state (Israel); several threshold states who could develop nuclear weapons in the near future (e.g. North Korea, Iran); states that could quickly develop nuclear weapons if their security was greatly undermined (Japan, 10 Australia); and two states that have recently declared their nuclear capability (India and Pakistan). This system of ‘nuclear haves and nuclear have-nots’ received serious shocks in 1997-1978. First, India and then Pakistan refused to sign the CTBT in its current form (The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty), undermining its status as a globally binding treaty (see Ghoshroy 1999; Hewitt 2000). Second, in early May 1998, India, under the leadership of the then new BJP coalition government, tested a total of five nuclear weapons in underground tests, ranging from thermonuclear bombs to small yield tactical weapons and greatly surprising even the CIA, the Central Intelligence Agency of the US (Strategic Comments 1998). The problem is not so much the demonstration of the technology, which India has held since its first ‘peaceful’ nuclear explosion in 1974, but the challenge it represented to the current system of nuclear powers. The status of nuclear weapons has been under debate between Pakistan and India through 2003-2007, and India has made it clear that it remains concerned by China's nuclear capabilities. The point is that the problem of nuclear weapons has not been solved, regionally or globally, and the current regime for controlling nuclear weapons is now under serious challenge. There has been some shift to change the focus of control through mechanisms that would control nuclear technology and nuclear materials, e.g. in 2005 India ratified the Convention on Nuclear Safety, emphasising the safety and control of nuclear power production sites (Xinhua 2005). As a result, the NPT may be seen as a failing regime, or at least one that needs serious support if its goals are to be sustained. Others view it as a moderately successful system: Yet, has the NPT failed? Although a bit dated and despite some noncompliance concerns, it is fair to say that the vast majority of its members continue to believe in and fully support the treaty's objectives and principles. Contrary to growing perceptions in Washington, both in governmental and nongovernmental circles, the treaty has a good track record. Although the only four states that remain outside the treaty are now armed with nuclear weapons, this problem relates to long-standing regional and bilateral political issues that the NPT was not necessarily designed to address. Convincing these countries to renounce nuclear weapons or control their nuclear-related technologies and material will require tailor-made diplomatic approaches outside the context of the NPT in which the United States and other NPT nuclear-weapon states have a leading role. The "glass-half-empty" protagonists seem to believe that because less than a handful of NPT members have cheated--Iraq, Libya, North Korea, and Iran--the NPT and its safeguards system have failed to prevent proliferation. Of these "cheaters," Iraq and Libya are no longer of nuclear proliferation concern, while the verdict is still out on Iran's intentions. In their analysis of the treaty's well-being, those who foresee a demise of the NPT seem to forget that several states, such as Argentina, Belarus, Brazil, Kazakhstan, South Africa, and Ukraine, gave up their nuclear weapons or related programs and joined the NPT as non-nuclear-weapon states in good standing. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of other non-nuclear-weapon states have laudable compliance records. (du Preez 2006) Global or regional instabilities in stock markets, currency markets and in the international financial system 1987-1998 and 2001-2002, in spite of the activities of the International Monetary Fund and the secondary role of the World Bank. The question here was whether these markets can find a substantially self-regulating equilibrium, or would continue to disastrously impact on specific countries and regions. To date, aside from some reform to the IMF for more speedy action on its part, no new major system of financial governance has been put in place (see D'Arista 2000), indicating that there is no guarantee that further instability in this area 11 could not occur again. Although no new major round of major crisis has occurred, instability through 1997-2002 in Russia, Turkey, Indonesia and Argentina has raised the spectre of a two-tier world-system based on those countries with strong currencies (Japan, EU, US), and those with vulnerable ones. In this setting, regional organisations such as ASEAN and Mercosur have begun to think of long term options such as shared currencies, which is problematic while economic convergence is low (see Bunyaratavej & Hahn 2003), or at least ways to avoid regional contagion if one national currency collapses. Moreover, it has been suggested that East Asia may have gone in the opposite direct in recent years through undervalued currencies. In the view of Nouriel Roubini: "First, this new economic and financial model is leading to excessive monetary and credit growth, asset bubbles in stock markets, housing markets and other financial markets that will eventually lead to a build up of financial vulnerabilities – like the capital inflows and bubbles that preceded the Asian crisis of 1997 in a region of semifixed exchange rates – that could trigger a financial crisis different from that of 199798, but that could be potentially as severe." Secondly, says Roubini, Asia's low reliance on domestic demand and high reliance on net exports (and production capacity for those exports) means that were the US economy to even slow down more seriously than it has, or worse – head into recession, then Asia is left very vulnerable. To exacerbate the matter, the longer export-led growth continues the more pressure builds up for protectionist measures from the US and Europe, which, if applied, would have the same effect. (Peel 2007) The emergence of a global system of communications, based not just on mass media and telephines, but also on the Internet, e-mail, and digital networks. The Internet, in particular, based on technology in part developed for military purposes, originally was extended as an academic research network. It rapidly moved to embrace a large section of the commercial and private groups who had access to computers and phone/line connections. As a result, ‘an-almost-global’ information network (highway) is being created, with serious implications for international relations, diplomacy, transnational business, NGOs, political and pressure groups, and for the ability of individuals to gain access to information in order to pressure or influence governments. The revolutionary effects of the Internet has already begin to transform education and marketing, but has also had a serious impact of international language and culture policies (e.g. in France), on issues of censorship and political control (Singapore, the People’s Republic of China, Cuba), on criminal activity (fraud, pornography, financial transfers, security issues), a serious impact on print media, and an influence on the labour and trade union movement. The rapid development of this system as one of the main sources of information may also inadvertently create information-poor ghettoes. Likewise, individuals, using these new technologies, can communicate with and influence others around the globe. This can range from the formation of hobby, interest or lobby groups giving each other international support, through to the creation of ‘virtual communities’ with new identities. This has linked up with recent rends towards skill-enriched elites, leadership groups, and publics. In some countries, especially those with adequate education systems, there has been a trend towards more highly skilled groups entering into public discussion, political activity, and policy formation (see Rosenau & Fagen 1998, suggesting a 9-14% improvement in the ability to deal with complexity in political life, compared to earlier generations). Some thinkers suggest a ‘skills revolution’ is underway which will radically change the accountability and power of government, greatly complicate international regimes, and even in the end 12 force serious reform in the United Nations (See Rosenau & Fagen 1998). This has now come forward as part of emerging transnational skills and competencies, allowing NGOs and civil society to collect the information needed to either help or criticise national governments, as appropriate to their goals. Such organisations, of course, also try to prompt major policy debates via the world-wide web (see for example the OneWorld.net at http://www.oneworld.net/). Serious changes in the nature of work, and in the range of subcultures and communities in which people can become involved. The work place is now often much more competitive (due to international pressures), more volatile (due to technological change), often conducted on a part-time basis, and in some areas can be done either at home, on the move, or at any remote location using new communication technologies (see Friedman 1999). The most extreme examples are ‘technological nomads’, who need no more than an e-mail or web address to do their creative or technical work and to receive information and payments in return. Likewise, major projects can be done by groups working in vary diverse locations, e.g. software design done jointly between India and Switzerland, library systems developed in offices in Australia and Singapore, or else subcontracted out to labour sites globally on a cost/delivery basis, e.g. in many areas of low-tech manufacturing. This greatly ‘internationalises’ the nature of the production, which is also more intensely subject to international pressures, standards and competition. At the same time, legal flows of labour tend to remain restricted to highly professional or skilled jobs, while illegal (non-documented) flows of workers have placed severe on borders zones in Europe, the Mediterranean, North America, and Southeast Asia. The degree to which international life at all levels is affected not just by the action of states, governments and international organisations such as the United Nations (IGOs, international and inter-governmental organisations), but by the action of nongovernment groups. These include non-government and international nongovernment organisations (NGOs, INGOs and CSOs, civil society organisations), who are now often recognised as observers and participants in the creation and implementation of international treaties, especially in the UN governance and environmental area (see the roles developed since the mid-1980s, outlined in Raustiala 1997; Reimann 2006). The most effective non-government actors, of course, have been the Trans-National Corporations (TNCs, also called Multinational Corporations, MNCs), as well international banks and financiers who have had a massive impact on the world economic system. Some would argue that the survival of many groups and most large businesses now depends on their ability to survive in and profit from this internationalised environment. Even large states now often rely on access to the international trade and investment markets for their viability (see Strange 1996). Likewise, some criminal organisations, whether drug cartels, 'mafia' organisations, have also become truly effective at the international level (thereby called TNCOs, Transnational Criminal Organisations), presenting a serious problem for international policing and putting pressure on the adaptability of national court systems (see Geldenhuys 2002). One argument suggests that businesses have been the most effective at becoming truly transnational (Saul 2005), but recent trends in environment groups and even labour organisations suggest that these groups too can internationalise their activities effectively, e.g. the global activities of Greenpeace, the operations of international labour alliances in support of union activities, and other international lobby groups (see Herod et al. 1998; Bell et al. 2002). 13 One of the most dramatic, and dangerous, surprises of the 21st century has been the ability of terrorist networks to use transnational and international tools to attack powerful Western nations and their interests, including the US, Spain, the UK, and Australian interests via Bali. Although national terrorism has been operational for decades, the ability of loose 'network of organisations', such as Al Qaeda, to pose an international threat that could strike targets at will was surprising. In part this was based on the use of everyday aspects of globalisation: easy air travel, easy access to information and technology, communication systems, mobile phones, and the ability to transfer even small sums to active cells in remote countries (see Abuza 2002). The result was a major challenge to the security of many Western states (the US, Britain, France, Spain and Australia), and a rapid increase in securitisation of the international system. This included tougher monitoring transport, customs, migration, and banking systems. Likewise, these tragic events led to a stronger push towards intervention and pre-emption of threats by the US and some of its allies (especially Britain and Australia), e.g. in Afghanistan and Iraq. It has also pushed forward a strong agenda for forcing some kind of comprehensive peace on the Middle East, though this prospect stalled through 2004-2007. Whether the security approach has contained international terrorism, or simply pushed it underground for the time being, remains to be seen. (see Naim 2003). It can be seen, then, that the international system has undergone rapid and dramatic change in the last 50 years, and has not been entirely predictable. This throws up new challenges which nations or even inter-governmental organisations cannot deal with adequately without a wide basis of support. All these factors have taken place within the context of trends towards globalisation, but the question we need to ask is what kind of globalisation is taking place, and what kind of globalisation is to be preferred. 3. Global Politics: The Basic Description of Globalisation Globalisation embraces the idea that a wide range of commodities, institutions, services, commercial activities, legal and treaty processes, as well as ideas and patterns of organisation are now occurring most effectively and powerfully on worldwide scale, rather than just locally, nationally, or even regionally. ‘Globalisation’ is really a short-hand term for ideas and theories concerning several international processes that are developing at the same time. In large part, globalisation is driven by interdependence and interconnectedness in the world economic system (see Wittkopf & Kegley 1995). This has become ‘a global architecture of power in which production, distribution and communication are increasingly structured by international networks and strategies’ (Camilleri 1997, p7). It is clear that national economies have to deal with new realities: It is now generally accepted that national economies have become increasingly interdependent and that the closely related processes of production, circulation, and exchange have assumed a global character. . . . All states must negotiate with international and transnational institutions which exercise decisive leverage in shaping the balance of costs and benefits, or risks and opportunities, within the world economy. That leverage flows from their command of technology, their ready access to global 14 markets and global sources of capital, and their ability to play off one sovereign jurisdiction against another. (Camilleri 1997, p8) This not just an economic, technological and political revolution. It is also a cultural revolution in which some see a new ‘global culture’ or ‘global civil society’ emerging. One account of these ‘global cultural flows’ outlines five distinct paths: – ethnoscapes produced by flows of people (tourists, immigrants, refugees, exiles, guest workers, and al those engaged in international science, sport, or entertainment); technoscapes produced by the flows of technical hardware and software generated by transnational corporations and government agencies; finanscapes produced by the rapid flows of money in the stock exchanges and the currency and futures markets; mediascapes produced by the flows of ideas and norms associated with statist and counter-statist movement, many of which have their origins in the Western Enlightenment worldview and give expression to diverse notions of freedom, national self-determination, democracy and human rights. (Camilleri 1997, p11, following Appadurai 1990). Moreover, it is possible to see globalisation as driven by modernisation and Westernisation, with Western ideas, culture and institutions becoming globally dominant. This forms one strong critique of globalisation, resulting in resistance, both violent and non-violent, to institutions supporting globalisation. This has been driven both by those opposed to the neo-liberal, market-oriented reform dominant in globalisation, by those see current patterns as perpetuating the North-South divide between rich and poor, as well as by those who see it as a form a cultural imperialism (see further Buttel 2003; Huntington 1996; Saul 2005). As we shall see, much more than these Western processes are at work. Other forces are also at play trying to influence the global system, and set up a more inclusive dialogue on these issues. Several globalisation processes are running alongside each other, allowing the possibility for their reform or modification (treated in more detail in later lectures). Thus these parallel globalisation processes, which are incomplete, are highly contested. Thus, George Kaloudis has suggested that we need to speak of several global transformations running at the same time: Internationalization refers to the increased interaction among people from different countries. Liberalization refers to the reduction of regulatory barriers. Universalization refers to the spread of people and cultural phenomena to all corners of the globe. Westernization refers to the process of greater homogenization and of the world becoming more western. Scholte believes that all these definitions are old definitions and as a consequence do not present any new insights. In turn, he defines globalization as "deterritorialization--or . . . the growth of 'supraterritorial' relations between people. In this usage, 'globalization' refers to a far reaching change in the nature of social space. The proliferation and spread of supraterritorial - or what we cal alternatively term 'transworld' or 'transborder' - connections brings an end to what could be called 'territorialism,' that is, a situation where social geography is entirely territorial. Although . . . territory still matters very much in our globalizing world, it no longer constitutes the whole of our geography." (Kaloudis 2004, quoting Jan Aart Scholte, Globalization: A Critical Introduction, New York: St. Martin's Press, 2000, pp. 44-46) Alongside this patterns, there has also been an emerging body of thought since the 1970s which suggested that global problems and progress could only be supported by increasing transnational and global flows of (free market) trade, finance and ideas, i.e. 15 the loose ideology known as globalism. Some of the expectations promoted by globalism have been listed by John Ralston Saul: The power of the nation-state is waning. Such states as we know them may even be dying. In the future, power will lie with global markets. Thus economics, not politics and armies, will shape human events. These global markets, freed of narrow national interests and inhibiting regulations, will gradually establish international economic balances. . . . Such markets will unleash waves of trade. And these waves will in turn unleash a broad economic tide of growth. This tidal wave will in turn lift all ships, including those of the poor, whether in the West or in the developing world. (Saul 2005, p15) In turn, it was hoped, that these trends would support certain types of democracies (moderate and constrained), with a gradual withering away of nationalism and racism (Saul 2005, p15). Over the last thirty years, these expectations have at best been only partially met, with rather different patterns emerging from current globalisation processes that may undermine some of these hopes (to be addressed through lectures 2-11). 4. Incomplete Globalisation as Global-Dialogue As we have seen, globalisation (in the sense listed above) is far from complete around the world and globalism has perhaps made overstated claims: large sections of the world have yet to benefit from comprehensive modernisation, a modern capitalist economy based on open trade flows, modern communications, or an adequate standard of living. The lower tier of least developed countries are still in dire poverty, while within most developing countries there are sizeable groups of urban and rural poor, and those vulnerable to violence and uncertainty. This is sometimes called uneven or incomplete globalisation (Camilleri & Falk 1992). Furthermore, not just Western institutions, products and culture are being spread around the world. These are examples where major domains of culture, finance and regional organisation come from diverse sources, leading to more pluralist value systems. Pluralism entails the idea that several groups and institutions have political power in society, with diverse forces shaping decisions and values beyond any single government. In the modern post-colonial period, the pattern of interaction has been one of mutual influence and interpenetration, rather than outright domination, in spite of the strong influence of modernism, Westernisation and the U.S. strategic hegemony in the current period. In reality, most of the cultural influences have been 'diffused rather than distributed', interacting and modifying each other, allowing transformation and recreation of values (Minattur 1965, p91). In terms of cultural products, religious ideas and organisation approaches, countries such as Japan, China, and India have had some impact on the global system, while regions such as Latin America and Africa have strong cultural resources that have to some degree begun to impact on global media. Likewise, value systems developed in Asia and the Islamic world cannot be ignored if there is to be any global consensus on a core of human values, and minimal definitions of international conduct (see Dallmayr 2002). 16 Here it is necessary to briefly mention the phenomena of incomplete globalisation. Globalisation processes can marginalise least developed countries, especially if they are small, weak in region al terms, and debt-ridden. Countries such as Bangladesh, compared to India, for example, find it hard to find their way into the international system and meet all regional and international expectations, e.g. via open trade proposals or the need to reform the legal system. Sophisticated nation-states in North America, parts of East Asia, and Europe are most able to benefit from most globalisation trends in the world economy (Im 1996, p285; Ferguson 1998; Mahbubani 1995, p111). Countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, and South Africa have also begun to integrate strongly into global processes, though with strong pressures on social policy and fiscal management. Core countries in the 'global North' tend to have greater influence in setting norms, building effective organisations, and running their economies to benefit from the new global financial system. Hence, they can sometimes direct or shape globalisation processes and rules, e.g. via the UN and IMF, a process called 'globalisation-from-above'. In contrast, globalisation 'from-below' seeks to shape these processes by grass-root groups and international civil society (see Herod at al 1998; Warkentin 2001). Furthermore, it is possible that several globalisation processes are running at once. One of the great fears concerning globalisation is that rather than representing positive opportunities for all nations, it will simply make the 'market system more productive and improves the standard of living of the civilized who live by material consumption' (Reuters 1997), i.e. that it is a narrow materialist exercise aiding the wealthy more than any other group. Fortunately, it is now possible to glimpse several parallel globalisation processes running together in the current period. In this emerging pluralist global system the state and transnational corporation will not dominate to the same decree as they have in the last twenty years. Civilisational influences, virtual city-states, networks and diasporas (large-scale migrations) working across state boundaries (Pettman 1996, pp5-8), and consciously developed regionalism will add to this more complex process of globalisation. Likewise, as Chinese power grows and the Chinese state entwines itself more deeply in international organisations, we might expect to see a world system more impacted by Chinese expectations, i.e. ’global politics with Chinese characteristics’ (Dellios 1997a). In the long term this would be based not just on the economic power of ‘Greater China’1 nor on the regional influence of China in Asia, but also on the emerging power of ideas and culture as defined by an even wider ‘cultural China’ (we will touch on this theme of ‘soft power’ in later lectures). Here a genuine dialogue is required to sustain the positive aspects of trade and culture in the global system. Bearing in mind the economic power of East Asia, and the relative diplomatic effectiveness of its regional organisations including ASEAN and the ASEAN-Plus-Three (including PRC, Japan and South Korea), the rising economic and military power of India, and the growing economic linkages between North and South America, the time is ripe to continue a serious dialogue on trade, culture and values. Dialogue may will be much more effective in setting shared standards and interests than trying to impose a ‘rights monopoly’ on the global system 1 The economic and social networks including the PRC, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, and Chinese groups throughout Southeast Asia. 17 (a point of view often launched my middle-level or reformist powers critical of the current global system, e.g. Turkey, Iran, China). Interactions among regional and cultural systems will be one of the main features of the twenty-first century global order. Continued vigorous trade in the world system virtually ensures that an interaction of values will also occur, whether based on constructive dialogue or contending claims. We will return to this issue of competing models of globalisation later in the subject. Another model of this interaction suggests that the type of dialogue and communication occurring within global networks is crucial in shaping the use of power. There is a need for the wide range of agenda and goals of different international groups to begin to converge on some better future in which there is a mix of practical outcomes and accountability that goes beyond national politics. One emerging area has been the slow evolution of cosmo-politics, cosmopolitanism and theories of cosmopolitan governance, all directed towards a more humanistic and responsive global system that recognises both human rights and global diversity (Cartier 1999; Cheah & Robbins 1998). This may be both a new model for democracy in a globalising world, and a source of universal human values based on dialogue and tolerance across different classes and social groups (Cartier 1999; Held 1999). Viewed as 'a set of international societal processes and values, cosmopolitanism is a humanist counterpart to globalization; and if the cosmopolitan has a geography, world cities are its primary nodes' (Cartier 1999; see further lectures 10-11). The aim would not be to 'force' democratic institutions on all states, but rather to enhance open communication and public participation across different institutions and groups that regulate regional and global institutions, gradually improving their accountability, legitimacy and capacity (discussed in later lectures). 5. Alternative Outlooks and Institutions This subject looks at rapid change in the international, political, cultural and economic systems, and changing theories about this transformation. It also looks at alternative institutions and movements which are challenging traditional views of power, international politics and globalisation. Next week we will briefly look at the main international relations theories explaining international politics, and current attempts to reformulate the idea of ‘power’ and the nature of the 'world system'. We will then turn to a wide range of alternative ways of explaining or influencing change. We will then look at the role of resources in shaping conflict, and patterns of ‘hard and soft’ power. The role of culture in international affairs will be addressed, including economic, political and strategic aspects of culture. Institutions, international actors, and their reform and accountability will also be addressed. Later in the series we return to new forms of transnational and cosmopolitan governance, including versions of ‘people power’. These involve new forms of connectivity whereby local issues can draw on international support, and in turn where communications technologies allow people to be directly involved with geographically removed events (Ackermann & Duval 2005; Rosenau & Fagen 1997). 18 One of the key trends that underline all these themes has been the need to move from reacting to events after they occur using old modes of thought (reactive), to building up the ability to be ready for change (pro-active capacity building), and the need to move beyond crisis management in the international system towards adaptive change. In this way, the current period of international transformation can be viewed as a crucial period in which some positive change can be generated, rather than negatively as a series of reactions ongoing crises as they emerge in the international system. Although no single 'international architecture' or set of institutions is likely to provide a complete fix to global problems (see Whitman 2006 for some of these problems), overlapping competencies at different levels might provide stronger patterns of governance for the 21st century. 6. Bibliography, Resources, and Further Reading Resources The Sustainable Development Department of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations has an Internet database of 1200 articles on a wide range developmental, environmental and political issues. [Web address = http://www.fao.org/] A wide range of news, lectures and articles can be found within the International Relations Portal at: www.international-relations.com A large database of useful articles will be found in the Infotrac Expanded Academic Database, located off the Bond University Library webpage. Relief Web provides a range of useful reports, news items and links concerning humanitarian crises, aid and development at http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/ A useful, NGO-oriented site is the One World network, with searchable articles and news, located at www.oneworld.net The IMF's World Economic and Financial Surveys an World Economic Outlook Database (April 2007 Edition) can be downloaded or searched via http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/index.aspx The Journal of Humanitarian Assistance has collection of useful information on peace and development studies (including some useful information on African issues, published by the Department of Peace Studies, the University of Bradford. Click on the 'Academic button' for access to articles, via http://www.jha.ac/ Further Reading You can extend your knowledge by looking at one or more of the following: BHAGWATI, Jagdish In Defense of Globalization, New York, Oxford University Press, 2004 19 BRYSK, Alison (ed.) Globalization and Human Rights, Berkeley, University of California Press, 2002 CARLSNAES, Walter et al. (eds.) Handbook of International Relations, London, Sage, 2002 DAVIES, Geoff Economica: New Economic Systems to Empower People and Support the Living World, Sydney, ABC Books, 2004 HENDERSON, Conway International Relations: Conflict and Cooperation at the Turn of the 21st Century, Boston, McGrawHill, 1998 HEROD, Andrew, TUATHAIL, Gearóid & ROBERTS, Susan M. (eds.) An Unruly World?: Globalization, Governance and Geography, London, Routledge, 1998 KALOUDIS, George "Why Global Transformation and Not Globalization", World and I, 19 no.12, December 2004 [Access via Infotrac Database] KLARE, Michael Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict, N.Y., Henry Holt and Company, 2002 KLEINBERG, Remonda & CLARK, Janine (eds.) Economic Liberalization, Democratization and Civil Society in the Developing World, New York, St. Martin's Press, 2000 LAPID, Yosef & KRATOCHWIL, Friedrich (eds.) The Return of Culture and Identity in IR Theory, London, Lynne Rienner, 1996 LEECH, Garry Crude Interventions: The US, Oil and the New World (Dis)order, London, Zed Books, 2006 NAIM, Moises "Five Wars of Globalization", Foreign Policy, January/February 2003 [Internet Access via www.foreignpolicy.com] SAUL, John Ralston The Collapse of Globalism: And the Reinvention of the World, London, Atlantic Books, 2005 TORRES, Raymond Towards a Socially Sustainable World Economy, London, ILO, 2001 WARKENTIN, Craig Reshaping World Politics: NGOs, the Internet and Global Civil Society, N.Y., Rowman & Littlefield, 2001 References ABUZA, Zachary "Tentacles of terror: Al Qaeda's Southeast Asian network", Contemporary Southeast Asia, 24 no. 3, December 2002, p427-467 [Access via Infotrac Database] ACKERMANN, Peter & DUVALL, Jack "People Power Primed: Civilian Resistance and Democratisation", Harvard International Review, 27 no. 2, Summer 2005, pp42-47 [Access via Infotrac Database] APPADURAI, Arjun “Disjuncture and Difference in the Global Cultural Economy”, in FEATHERSTONE, Mike (ed.) Global Culture: Nationalism, Globalisation and Modernity, London, Sage, 1990, pp295-310 BELL, Ruth Greenspan et al. " Fostering a culture of environmental compliance through greater public involvement", Environment, 44 no. 8, October 2002, pp34-44 [Access via Infotrac Database] BLUSTEIN, Paul "O'Neill Targets World Bank's Poverty Fighting Strategy", Washington Post, 16 May 2001, pE01 [Internet Access] BULL, Hedley Hedley Bull on International Society, edited by Kai Alderson and Andrew Hurrell. Basingstoke, Macmillan, 2000 [Access via Ebrary Database] BUNYARATEVJ, Kraiwinee & HAHN, Eugene "Convergence and its implications for a common currency in ASEAN", ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 20 no. 1, April 2003, pp49-59 [Access via Infotrac Database] BUTTEL, Frederick H. "Some observations on the anti-globalisation movement ", Australian Journal of Social Issues, 38 no. 1, February 2003, pp95-117 [Access via Infotrac Database] BOYLAN, Edward S. "The Chinese Cultural Style of Warfare", Comparative Strategy, 3 no. 4, 1982, pp341-364 CAMILLERI, J. “Making Sense of Globalisation”, in WISEMAN, John (ed.) Alternatives to Globalisation: An Asia-Pacific Perspective, Fitzroy, Community Aid Abroad, 1997, pp6-13 CAMILLERI, J. & FALK, Jim The End of Sovereignty? The Politics of a Shrinking and Fragmenting World, Aldershot, Edward Elgar, 1992 Carbon Positive "IPCC report: Making sense of the numbers", 7 May 2007 [Access via http://www.carbonpositive.net/viewarticle.aspx?articleID=685] 20 CARTIER, Carolyn "Cosmopolitics and the Maritime World City", Geographical Review, 89 no. 2, April 1999, pp278-289 CASPER, Gretchen Fragile Democracies: The Legacies of Authoritarian Rule, Pittsburgh, University of Pittsburgh Press, 1995 CHARNOVITZ, Steve "The Emergence of Democratic Participation in Global Governance", Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, 10 no. 1, Winter 2003, pp45-78 [Access via Infotrac Database] CHEAH, Pheng & ROBBINS, Bruce (eds.) Cosmopolitics: Thinking and Feeling Beyond the Nation, Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press, 1998 CHENG, Joseph Y.W. "Regional impacts of China's WTO membership", Asian Affairs: An American Review, 29 no. 4, Winter 2003, pp217-237 [Access via Infotrac Database] CHIN, V.K. “West Must Agree to a Review of Human Rights Declaration”, The Star, 31 July 1997 [Internet Access]. CHOSSUDOVSKY, Michel The Globalization of Poverty: Impacts of IMF and World Bank Reforms, London, Zed Books, 1997 DALLMAYR, Fred ""Asian values' and global human rights ", Philosophy East and West, 52 no. 2, April 2002, p173-190 [Access via Infotrac Database] D'ARISTA, Jane "Reforming International Financial Architecture", Challenge, 43 no. 3, May/June 2000, pp44-82 DAVENPORT, David "The New Diplomacy", Policy Review, December 2002 pp17-30 DAVIES, Geoff Economica: New Economic Systems to Empower People and Support the Living World, Sydney, ABC Books, 2004 DELLIOS, Rosita “Global Politics with Chinese Characteristics”, Culture Mandala, 2 no. 2, December 1997a, pp1-22 DELLIOS, Rosita “’How May the World Be At Peace?’ Idealism as Realism in Chinese Strategic Culture”, in HUDSON, Valerie (ed.) Culture and Foreign Policy, Boulder, Lynne Rienner, 1997b, pp201-230 DELLIOS, Rosita "The Rise of China as a Global Power", Culture Mandala, 6 no. 2, February 2005, pp44-55 DILENSCHNEIDER, Robert L. “The Mechanism of Power”, in On Power, N.Y., Harper Business, 1994, pp34-56 DOBBS-HIGGINSON, Michael S. Asia Pacific: Its Role in the New World Disorder, Port Melbourne, Wiliam Heinemann, 1993 DUDLEY, Joseph P. "Bird flu outbreak in United Kingdom reveals global vulnerabilities.(Viewpoint)", BioScience 56 no .3, March 2006, pp182-183 [Access via Infotrac Database] DUPONT, Alan “Is There An ‘Asian Way’?”, Survival, 38 no. 2, Summer 1996, pp13-33 DU PREEZ, Jean "Half full or half empty? Realizing the promise of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty", Arms Control Today, 36.10, December 2006, pp6-12. [Access via InfoTrac Expanded Academic] Economist "Ending Sudan's impunity; The International Criminal Court.(The International Criminal Court names its first two people suspected of atrocities in Darfur)", 382.8518, March 3, 2007, p54 Environmental Policy and Law "New Environmental Plan", 31 no. 6, 2001, pp293-297 [Access via Ebsco Database] EVANS, Nicole C. "Missile defense: winning minds, not hearts: the U.S. plan to build a global missile defense has been gaining international support, but not because other governments believe it will make their countries safer", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 60 no. 5, Sept-Oct 2004, pp48-55 [Access via Infotrac Database] FERGUSON, Niall "Niall Ferguson on Islam and demographics", Interview Transcript and MP3 audio, ABC, Religion Report, 29 March 2006 [Internet Access via http://www.abc.net.au/rn/talks/8.30/relrpt/stories/s1603430.htm] FERGUSON, R. James "Shaping New Relationships: Asia, Europe and the New Trilateralism", International Politics, no. 4, 1998 FRIEDMAN, Thomas The Lexus and the Olive Tree, New York. HarperCollins Publishers, 1999 FRIEDMAN, Thomas The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century, NY., Thorndike Press, 2005 FUNABASHI, Yoichi "The Asianization of Asia", Foreign Affairs, 72 no. 5, November/December 1993, pp75-85 21 GELDENHUYS, Deon " Non-state deviants in world affairs", Strategic Review for Southern Africa, 24 no. 2, November 2002, pp1-29 GHOSHROY, Subrata "Not a Catastrophe: Another Look at the South Asian Nuclear Tests", Arms Control Today, 29 no. 8, December 1999 GORDON, Sandy “Globalisation and Economic Reform in India”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 51 no. 1, April 1997, pp73-90 GURTOV, Mel Global Politics in the Human Interest, Boulder, Rienner, 1991 HAQUE, M. Shamsul "The revival of realism in international politics after September 11 and its ethical impact", International Journal of Politics and Ethics, 3 no. 1, Spring 2003, pp135-155 [Access via Infotrac Database] HARDING, Harry (ed.) China's Foreign Relations in the 1980s, New Haven, Yale University Press, 1984 HARDING, Harry "On the Four Great Relationships", Survival, 36 no. 2, Summer 1994, pp22-42 HARDING, Harry "The Role of the Military in Chinese Politics", in Falkenheim, Victor (ed.) Citizens and Groups in Contemporary China, Anne Arbor, Center for Chinese Studies, 1987, pp21356 HARDING, Harry "China at the Crossroads: Conservatism, Reform or Decay", Adelphi Paper 275, Conference Papers: Asia's International Role in the Post-Cold War Era, Part I, (Papers from the 34th Annual Conference of the IISS held in Seoul, South Korea, from 9-12 September 1992), March 1993, pp36-48 HENDERSON, Conway International Relations: Conflict and Cooperation at the Turn of the 21 st Century, Boston, McGrawHill, 1998 HEROD, Andrew, TUATHAIL, Gearóid & ROBERTS, Susan M. (eds.) An Unruly World?: Globalization, Governance and Geography, London, Routledge, 1998 HEWITT, Vernon "Containing Shiva? India, Non-Proliferation, and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty", Contemporary South Asia, 9 no. 1, March 2000 HITCHOCK, David I. Asian Values and the United States: How Much Conflict?, Washington D.C., The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1994 HITT, William A Global Ethic: The Leadership Challenge, Columbus, Battelle Press, 1996 HOBSBAWM, E. J. Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914-1991, London, Michael Joseph, 1994 HOLSTI, K.J. International Politics: A Framework For Analysis, New Jersey, Prentice-Hall International, 1995 HUDSON, Valerie M. (ed.) Culture and Foreign Policy, Boulder, Lynne Rienner, 1997 HUNTINGTON, Samuel P. “The Clash of Civilizations?”, Foreign Affairs, Summer 1993, pp22-49 HUNTINGTON, Samuel P. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, N.Y., Simon & Schuster, 1996 IM, Hyug Baeg "Globalisation and Democratisation: Boon Companions or Strange Bed Fellows", Australian Journal of International Relations, 50 no. 3, November 1996, pp279-292 IMF World Economic and Financial Surveys: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2006 [Access via http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/01/data/index.htm] IRIYE, Akira Cultural Internationalism and World Order, N.Y., John Hopkins University Press, 1997 JAMESON, Fredric & MASAO, Miyoshi (eds.) The Culture of Globalization, Durham, Duke University Press, 1998 JORDAAN, Evert & VREY, Francois " Ideas on the revolution in military affairs and the nature of lowintensity conflict", Strategic Review for Southern Africa, 25 no. 1, May 2003, pp107-134 KALOUDIS, George "Why Global Transformation and Not Globalization", World and I, 19 no.12, December 2004 [Access via Infotrac Database] KARLINER, Joshua The Corporate Planet: Ecology and Politics in an Age of Globalization, Sierra Club Books, 1997 KIELY, Ray "The World Bank and "global poverty reduction": good policies or bad data?", Journal of Contemporary Asia, 34 no. 1, March 2004, pp3-20 [Access via Infotrac Database] KISSINGER, Henry Diplomacy, N.Y., Simon & Schuster, 1994 KLARE, Michael Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict, N.Y., Henry Holt and Company, 2002 KLEVEMAN, Lutz The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia, N.Y., Atlantic Monthly Press, September 2003 KOHUT, John & CHENG, Allen T. “Return of the Merchant Mandarins”, Asia, Inc. Online, February 1996 [Internet Access]. 22 KÜNG, Hans A Global Ethic for Global Politics and Economics, London, SCM Press, 1997 LANGER, Paul F. "Japanese National Security Policy - Domestic Determinants", Rand Report R1030-ISA, Santa Monica, Rand Corp., 1972 LAPID, Yosef & KRATOCHWIL, Friedrich (eds.) The Return of Culture and Identity in IR Theory, London, Lynne Rienner, 1996 LEBOW, Richard Ned. “Beyond Parsimony: Rethinking Theories of Coercive Bargaining”, European Journal of International Relations, 4 no. 1, March 1998, pp31-66 LEECH, Garry Crude Interventions: The US, Oil and the New World (Dis)order, London, Zed Books, 2006 LIEBER, Keir A. & PRESS, Daryl G. "The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy", Foreign Affairs, 85 on. 2, March/April 2006 [Access via Infotrac Database] LENZ, Ilse " Globalization, gender, and work: perspectives on global regulation", Review of Policy Research, 20 no. 1, Spring 2003 v20, pp21-44 [Access via Infotrac Database] LEPOR, Keith Philip (ed.) After The Cold War: Essays on the Emerging World Order, Austin, Texas, 1997 LI, Tianran "Guanyu zhonghe guoli wenti' [On the Question of Comprehensive National Strength], Guoji wenti yanjiu, no. 2, April 1990, pp52-58 LOUGHLIN, John "The "transformation" of governance: new directions in policy and politics", The Australian Journal of Politics and History, 50 no. 1, March 2004, pp8-22 [Access via Infotrac Database] MAHBUBANI, Kishore “The Pacific Way”, Foreign Affairs, 74 no.1, January/February 1995, pp100111 MALUF, Ramez. "Urgent: how to sell America: the new U.S. public diplomacy guru must get the United States on local TV, make U.S. foreign aid more visible, and show the Arab world how diverse American opinion really is.(THE FP MEMO)", Foreign Policy, 149, July-August 2005, pp74-78 [Access via Infotrac Database] McCARGO, Duncan (ed.) Reforming Thai Politics, Denmark, Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, 2002 MINATTUR, Joseph "Some Characteristics of Indian Culture in Malaysia", in ALISJAHBANA, S. Takdir et al. (eds.) The Cultural Problems of Malaysia in the Context of Southeast Asia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysian Society of Orientalists, 1965, pp90-100 MORGANTHAU, H.J. Politics Amongst Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, N.Y., Knopf, 1985 NAIM, Moises "Five Wars of Globalization", Foreign Policy, January/February 2003 [Internet Access via www.foreignpolicy.com] National Institute Economic Review "The World Economy", Issue 190, October 2004, p2 [Access via Infotrac Database] National Institute Economic Review "The world economy.(AT A GLANCE ...),", Issue 194, Oct 2005, p2 [Access via Infotrac Database] NOVOGRODSKY, Noah "Challenging impunity: the International Criminal Court was launched in April 2002. Noah Novogrodsky outlines the goals of the Court and describes the barriers to its success", New Internationalist, 385, December 2005, pp20-21 [Access via Infotrac Database] PEEL, Greg "Building Towards A New Asian Financial Crisis", FN Arena News, May 11 2007 [Access via http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=79B77F2C-17A4-1130F5F5EF300B447732] PETTMAN, Ralph Asian Globalism, Paper presented at the ISA/JAIR joint conference, Makuhari, Japan, September 20-22, 1996 PETTMAN, Ralph International Politics, Boulder, Lynne Rienner, 1991 RAUSTIALA, Kal “States, NGOs, and International Environmental Institutions”, International Studies Quarterly, 41 no. 4, December 1997, pp719-740 RAVENHILL, John (1998) "The Growth of Intergovernmental Collaboration in the Asia-Pacific Region", in McGREW, Anthony & BROOK, Christopher (eds.) (1998) Asia-Pacific in the New World Order, London, Routledge, pp247-270 REIMANN, Kim D. "A View from the Top: International Politics, Norms and the Worldwide Growth of NGOs", International Studies Quarterly, 50 no. 1, 2006, pp45-67 Reuters "India, South Africa Launch 'Strategic Partnership'", 28 March 1997 [Internet Access] ROSENAU, James N. & FAGEN, W. Michael “A New Dynamism in World Politics: Increasingly Skillful Individuals”, International Studies Quarterly, 41 no. 4, December 1997, pp655-686 23 ROSS, Christopher. "Pillars of public diplomacy: grappling with international public opinion. (Perspectives)", Harvard International Review, 25 no.2, Summer 2003, pp22-29 [Access via Infotrac Database] SASSEN, Saskia Losing Control?: Sovereignty in an Age of Globalization, N.Y., Columbia University Press, 1996 SAUL, John Ralston The Collapse of Globalism: And the Reinvention of the World, London, Atlantic Books, 2005 SNYDER, Jack The Soviet Strategic Culture: Implications for Limited Nuclear Operations, Santa Monica, CA, Rand R-2154-AF, 1977 SOPIEE, Noordin "The Development of an East Asian Consciousness", in SHERIDAN, Greg (ed.) Living With Dragons: Australia Confronts its Asian Destiny, Sydney, Allen & Unwin, 1995, pp180-193 SOROS, George On Globalization, N.Y., Public Affairs, 2002 SKEHAN, Craig & BAKER, Mark "Brawl Erupts on Human Rights", Sydney Morning Herald, 30 July 1997 [Internet Access] STAVINS, Robert N. "Forging a more effective: global climate treaty", Environment, 46 no. 10, December 2004, pp22-30 [Access via Infotrac Database] STEVENSON, Jonathan Preventing Conflict: The Role of the Bretton Woods Institutions, Adelphi Paper 336, London, IISS, 2000 STRANGE, Susan The Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the International Economy, Cambridge, CUP, 1996 Strategic Comments "India and Pakistan's Nuclear Tests", 4 no. 5, June 1998, pp1-2 STRUCK, Doug "As North Koreans Starve Anew, is Food Aid Wrong?", International Herald Tribune, 17 May 2001 [Internet Access] THORNTON, William H. "Mapping the 'Glocal' Village: the political limits of 'glocalization'", Continuum, 14 no. 1, April 2000 [Access via Ebsco Database] TICKNER, J. Ann “You Just Don’t understand: Troubled Engagements Between Feminists and IR Theorists”, International Studies Quarterly, 41 no. 4, December 1997, pp611-632 TICKNER, J. Ann. "Gendering a discipline: some feminist methodological contributions to international relations", Signs, 30 no. 4, Summer 2005, 2173-2188 [Access via Infotrac Database] TUCKER, Robert W. "The International Criminal Court Controversy", World Policy Journal, 18 no. 2, Summer 2001 [Access via Infotrac Database] WARKENTIN, Craig Reshaping World Politics: NGOs, the Internet and Global Civil Society, N.Y., Rowman & Littlefield, 2001 WHITMAN, Jim "Disseminative systems and global governance.", Global Governance, 11 no.1, JanMarch 2005, pp85-102 [Access via Infotrac Database] WHO World Malaria Report, World Health Organization and UNESCO, 2005 [Access via http://www.rbm.who.int/wmr2005/html/1-1.htm#1_1_3] WILKENING, Dean A. Ballistic Missile Defence and Strategic Stability, Adelphi Paper no. 334, London, IISS, 2000 WITTKOPF, Eugene & KEGLEY, Charles W. Jr. The Global Agenda: Issues and Perspectives, N.Y., McGraw-Hill, 1995 Xinhua "India ratifies nuclear safety convention", Xinhua News Agency, March 31, 2005 [Access via Infotrac Database] 24