Argument 提纲 001.决策解释-运作调整-商业 推荐提纲: 1. It would be reasonable to expect for higher profit by building health-related stories in areas where leading healthy lives are better concerned, but it is absurd to claim that building such a store in plainsville will certainly be satisfactorily rewarded if the arguer failed to see the below facts; First of all, we can get the conclusion that residents of Plainsvilly do pay good attention to healthy lives, but their concernings are mainly focused on healthy trainings and relevant items, while Nature’Way, on the other hand, seems to emphasize on healthy food.The outcoming will not be so satisfactory as anticipatedif Nature’s Way failed to se to this difference either by adapting the items of their store there or by advertizing and then persuading people into buying their healthy food. What’s more, the memo has obviously ignored the presence of other healthy-related stores in Plansvilly. Since the stores there have alreadly get a good reward on healthy-related retailing, it might not be so easy for a newbie to invade and become the conqueror if we take into account the natural of healthy-related products that people will not be easily enticed into trying a new brand of food or product while they have already found somewhat fit them well. Last but not least, no one can assure this trend of “hot buying”will last forever. People may enter a more rational state in choosing sporting or food for their wellbeings while more and more retailers enter into the competion for limited market. For the reasons given above, I strongly recommend the director of the Nature’ Way taking a more overall consideration of the market’s foreseeings and making enough analysis and planning, which will lead to a more stable possible of profit. 2. 1. the residents who are concerned their health will no certainly purchase health-related products, because most of the people just enjoy the free exercise such as running. 2. even if many people want to purchase health-related product, they will not certainly buy the products of NW, for there are many competitors in this area, some of which have enjoyed a good repution. 3. the arguer fails to provide concrete evidences which assure this trend will be continue. 002.由此及彼-房地产 推荐提纲: 1. Although the committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres seems to that a set of restrivtions on landscaping and housepainting will certainly bring a rise in property values, I wonder if the argument can bare any close examination. The arguer direct draws the conclusion from the example of nearby Brookville adopted restrictions and got value rise, so if Deerhaven do the same, it must get the same reslult- which seems absurd. One reason why I disagree the arguer is that there might be corelation rather than a cause-reslut relationship between the adoption of restirctions and the going-up of property values.There are so many factors which may contribute to the latter, for instance, the Brookville may have changed from ordinary dwellings to a hive with potential maket, the situation of Brookvoille may be a promise to safety, or convinient public transportations may have been available. Landscaping of yards and arranged housepainting may attract new homeoewners, which in turns raise the property values, but it is naïve to think that this is the one and only reason. On the other hand, dwellers have the freedom in choosing between a universal arrangement of community and developing their own tastes of housepainting and landscaping. Simply take housepainting for example, bule may be a lot of people’s favourite color but a few’s loathness. Forcing those who are not make them happy.What’s more, a group of house with the same color arrangement may seem attractive and interesting, the same thing will not be so pleasing while happening to different house groups . In sum, I agree with the arguer that some improvement in community will help promote property values. But the result wil not be so satisfactory if the coummunity put things as simple as in the argument.I would recomment Deehaven to work out a way of itself , which is different and unique , to add its attraction and hence the property values, for instance, to develop its community culture or son on. 2. 1. No direct connections between the triple in average property and the set of restrictions. In fact, the landscaping and housepainting do not possibly contribute a lot in local propert values. The other factors such as the building of large factories and commerical centers, the burgeonig of local toursim and the like should be more determinative. 2. false analogy between B and D, B might be famous for their entertaining and uniform landscape, in other words, lighter living styles, however, D is some kind of more serious city in that it deal with manufacturing and agriculture. 3.the feasibility of this project, the population of B might much smaller than D, therefore it is easier to carry on these restrictions, however, the status of D might much complex so that it is hard to put the policy into practice. 004. 比较引论-房地产 The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site. "Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams." 简要翻译： 找 Adams 卖房快，房价好。因为 A 是最好的，它有更高的年收入、更多的代理，它卖房子 的平均价高。而且本人前后 9 年的经历也证明了这一点。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. larger staff size does not follow high efficiecy,neither does full-time policy. a. sometimes larger staff size comes with tedious process. b. part-time job in real estate is very natural since there are less consumers in certain hours compared with other jobs. so it is wise decision to allow the part-time job, for one reason the firm can reduce their cost , for another reason employees can save unnecessary time spend in nothing-to-do conditions. 2.unfair and incomplete comparision between AR and RR a. the cost used for employee payment in two firms are different. since AR have larger staff size, so that it should pay more on the whole. b. the size of firms influence their revenue, the arguer simpy compare $168,000 with $144,000 without giving any personal earning data. in fact, we can judge from the number and staff size (50,25) that the latter seems to be more productive. 3. the arguer make his assumption based by one single home selling from two firms, which makes the conclusion open to doubt. a. one home selling can not represent whole situation b. devoid how much do these houses sold only talking about months make no sense. c.the house sold in different years so that there are many other time-affluence factors such as economy fluctuate and government policy. 2． 1．False assumption: no evidence shows that A is better than F to depend on the amount of more sales money and agents, the author ignores the average sale; 2．Flase analogy: the success situation of last year does not mean that A can success at the present time; 3．The author neglects the difference between his two houses, such as location, price and quality of them, etc. in addition, there have taken place so many changes in nine years, for example, the improvement of society and the requirement of real estate, etc. In sum, if you want sell you house at a satisfied price, not only finding a excellent agent but the proper market analysis of your house are equally necessary. 006. 结论说明-商业推销 The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe. "A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money." 简要翻译： 在 Monroe 开一家 Jazz club 会很赚钱。因为该市有很多人喜爱爵士乐，爵士乐迷第年都会 有很大笔开销花在爵士乐相关的事情，另外该市距离最近一家 Jazz club 也很远，所以它们 会拥有整个市场。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. people will still be unlikely to go C Note club only because it is near when C Note can not provide better service. 2. fails to provide detailed information about that nearest jazz club, it might be very famous so that people are used to spend time there, however, admited C Note are closer and has good service, if it has no fixed consumers and attraction in fame, it still can not make money "tremendously" 3. jazz is popular in M does not equal jazz clubs are also popular. people might prefer listening radion, watching TV ,buying records than going to jaz clubs since jaz clubs cost more. 4. the 3 reason arguer mentioned in order to prove the jazz is popular in M in fact all unconvincing: a. the first reason is too special , jazz festival surely attracts more people in attending, instead the arguer should provide the situation in every-day life. b. the second reason has no direct connection with the whether or not jazz is popular in M. it just proved that M is better place for stars residing c. the last reason prove litte too since the program broadcast so less frequently that it is almost natural many people listen to that program since if they missed it they will spend another week waiting the next set. 5.national wide survey can not be applied to M before there is enough evidence shows the survey fits situation in M as well. 2． 1.So much stuff is available about jazz already, so whether the residents still need a new jazz club is hard to say. The existing club might be doing its job so well that 65 miles appears not to be a long distance after all.. 2.Though several well-known musicians live in M, whether they would like to contribute to the proposed club is a question. 3.That jazz festival is an unusual occasion, and surely it attracted a large crowd. What's more, many of the visitors might have come from other towns than M. 4.$1,000. per year is spent by the typical jazz fans nationwide, however, there is no mentioning there are many typical jazz fans in the town. What's more, there is no guanrantee that they would spend more money on the proposed club. 008. 观点说明-商业 The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc. "Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country." 简要翻译： 购买 Mesa Foods，并主要生产其畅销产品 Diabolique Salsa 肯定会让 Omni Inc 赢利。因为 Mesa Foods 很有发展潜力，去年的利润增长有 20%，而 Diabolique Salsa 在过去三年里销 量也一直增长。另外零食的消费者正好是 14-25 岁的顾客群，Omni Inc 很感兴趣。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. No evidence shows the DS food is favored by the age group of 14-to-25. the arguer can not made hasty judgement even without provide this most important factors since OI has the origin aim at reach such age group. 2. No evidence shows DS can be popular in other regions, the local people might have their own sense of taste. 3. "increase in profits last year" and "increased sales over each of past 3 years" make no sense without knowing the whether MF actually makes profits. it might still in cost-supass-income trouble. 4. No evidence shows MF can be bought by OI, for one reason, MF is a small company that its stock has not come into the market. OI can hardly buy MF at will , moreover,whether OI has the ability to buy MF remains unkown since no statistic for OI provided. it might also be a small comany and might even be in debt. 2． 1.When whether Mesa earned profits in the first year remains unknown, neither 20 percent in profits last year nor increased sales over each of the past 3 years makes any sense. 2.The tastes' are not assured: 1)There is no indication that Mesa Foods is oriented to 14-25 years' age group. Perhaps their foods are liked by older people rather than the young. 2)Diabolique Salsa might not be a popular tastes throughout the country. 3. The feasibility of this purchase is open to doubt. 1)Mesa Foods might retain their independence. 2)Whether Omni Inc can afford MF is a question. 009. 问题解决-教育与就业 The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University. "Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors." 简要翻译： 终止学生评论教授，毕业生就能保证找到好工作。因为评价使得学生的分数平均增长了 30%，使得潜在雇主认为学生的成绩是被夸张的，从而使本校学生没有另一学校学生找工 作成功。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.No proof is provided as to potential employers' belief in Omega's grades inflation. 1)The high grades don't reflect the graduates' practical ability, Alpha graduates might show more practical skills. 2)Graduates from other Alpha University get even higher grades. 3)Omega university is not as famous as Alpha University. 2.Termination of the evaluation of professors might have side effects. 1) The teaching quality might be lowered. Perhaps professors teach better because of the evaluation system. 2) The grades are lowered. Without the evaluation system, professors are not so devoted to teaching, and affect students' grades accordingly. and the graduates are facing even harder time than now in finding a job. 2． Should the teaching effectiveness evaluation be blamed for Omega graduates's not being so successful at getting jobs as those from Alpha University? The arguer, by threading up the relationships as evaluoation, grades inflation to disadvantage in job seeking, recommended Omega University to cancel the student evaluation of professors, which has been executed for about 15 years. While I concede that student evaluation of professors may cause some grades inflation, a rash stop of evaluation system will only damage the university rather than do any advantage to it. It is easy to imagine that, in order to please students so that get a good evaluation, some professors will grant satisfactory grades to those he teaches, which are higher than they really deserve. But the evaluating of the teaching effectiveness gives students the opportunity to show their approval or disapproval to professors on academic level, personality, capability and other criteria which influent them. The bidirectional evaluation not only helps students to get better education, but also mirrors the professors whether they are successful in their career or not and improve themselves accordingly. Students in such a university will be more active and possitive in study, which in turn reward them with better scores. While in a conventional university, the students get little chance to show their dissatisfaction of ineffectiveness of some professors. They may lost their interest in those courses while the professors even do not get the chance to know about this. The arguer unfaily ascribes the 30% rise in overall students' grades of Omega University to inflation, failing to see the possible bi-directional improvement of both students and professors. By comparision between Omega University and the nearby Alpha University, the arguer is strongly against the evaluation of teaching effectiveness because graduates from the latter seem to have an advantage over their peer from the former in seeking good jobs. But he failed to give us some important basic comparisions between the two universities, which may be the root where the difference arises from. For example, the difference between academic powers of the two universities, or the inproper curriculum scheduling. It's unfair to blame the evaluation system if Alpha is a first-class university while Omega is, unfortunely, a second-class one. Such pre-disavantages may have a dominant role in employer's decision in choosing graduates from the two universities. It's the students' freedom to evaluations on professors and their teachings, which is forgotten or forbidden for so long a time that most universities do not grant their students the power to do so. But nowadays, the headers of universities are coming to see this and making alternation or improvements to remend on which the Omega University has executed for 15 years. It's such a well built system in Omega that shouldn't be brutally erazed out. In order to secure the graduates better job opportunities, the Omega University should focus on improving their academic level by employing better professors or making alternations on curriculum to meet the employers' criteria. 010. 描述现象-提出应对措施-政府宏观调控 The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper. "The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers." 简要翻译： 为保证消费者得到低价和牛奶供应，规范价格非常必要。因为奶家数量在过去 10 年增加了 25%，而同时市场里的牛奶价格却升了一倍，这表明奶农从中获得了多余的利润。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. ignores the population increase. In the 10 years of time, population in the area might have increased 30 percent, and made the milk supply still insufficient. 2.A latent price inflation is ignored. The prices of other goods might have increased 4 or 5 times during the past 10 years so the price increase of milk is comparatively low. 3.The economic rule should be when supply is bigger than demand, the prices are low, which is a natural marketing law. The conclusion that farmers receive excessive profits is unwarranted. 4.To regulate milk prices doesn't ensure there is adequate supply of milk, because many farmers stop raising cows or supplying milk when there is little profits to earn. 2． a. the number of dairy farms increasing doesn't mean increased supply of milk,maybe the size of the farms become small or many farms produces high-qulity milk b. hasty generation the fact that the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon can't guarantee the price of the whole country,Even if the price is valid, after adjustment of inflation ,it is not sure that farms receive excessive profits c. if the government regulates rretail milk prices maybe many farms will bankrupt 011. 反驳-垃圾循环利用 The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg. "Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted." 简要翻译： 垃圾回收能使空间够用更长时间。因为过去里居民对铝和纸的重复利用比前几年多了，而 超过 90%的被访问者也表示他们将徕会更多地回收垃圾。另外该市下个月的垃圾采集费用 会翻番，这也将使用权得回收垃圾应该更进一步提高。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Aluminum and paper might make up only a small amount of the overall present garbage material. 2. 2.The amount of garbage material might be on the rise, because of the population increase in the future and therefore offset the recycled material increase. 3.The doubling garbage pickup is not attractive to a wealthy community. 4.To make a commitment is one thing, to keep it is far more difficult. There is no indication they might fulfill their promise. 2． a. Although aluminum and paper can be recycled ,many other such as plastic,clothes can't be recycled for the moment.Moreover if the amount of the rubbish is increasing greatly,the available space the available space maybe last shorter than predicted. b. A recent survey'validity is open to doubt because the number of samplers and random samples are vague. c. No evidence is to support that charges for garbage pickup doubling will cause the amount of material recycled increasing 012. 问题解决-生产安全 The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing. "During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep." 简要翻译： 要减少事故从而提高产量，就应该把三个班次的工作时间积压减少一个小时。因为去年我 们的事故比附近的那家高了 30%，专家认为疲劳和睡眠不足是发生事故的很重要原因。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.The working populations of the two industries are not mentioned. If AM has 10 times more workers than PI, 30 percent more accidents is no big deal comparatively speaking. 2.Many other factors might cause the accidents. 1)The working nature of AM is far more dangerous. 2)No precaution measures are taken 3)The equipments are old 4)The management is loose. 3.To shorten the work shifts might not ensure the workers sleep more and sleep deprivation might not be lessened. What if they spend more hours on watching TV or picking up a part-time job when they have so much free time at hand? 4.To increase productivity involves many other factors, such as the improvement of the workers' skills. When they work less, they have less chances to improve their skills. 2． a. false analogy Manufacturing and Panoply Industrie are incomparable b. no evidence is provided to establish relationship between to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and to increase productivity c. one hour maybe isn't enough to the employees because the intension of the Manufacturing 013. 行为解释-商业运作-投资分析 The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company. "We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book "Squirrel Power," by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs." 简要翻译： 尽管短期内会让公司财政紧张，但买版权无疑是明智的投资。因为这本书的作者前三本书 非常畅销，根据他第一本书拍的电影也非常赚钱，另外这本书里人物和故事都很有知名度， 这将节省我们在开发游戏的时间，从而降低成本。 推荐提纲： 1． 1, The popularity of the books and movies "squirrel Power" dose not definitely means we can succeed in making great profit from the game. 2, We can say it can save a lot of time and cost by omitting the design of the character and story because we don't know the proportion of the design of character and story in the total load of work. To make his conclusion persuasive, the arguer have to prove more specific material to show the high possibility to obtain glorious market and make considerable profit. 2． 1.That Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable does not lend strong suppport that our video game will be popular. 2.The popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" may not be fit to use in video game developing. 3.The substantial cost for the right may affect the development of the company 014. 现象分析，提出应对措施-商业行为调整 The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town. "There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring." 简要翻译： 大量扩大蔬菜种子的储存种类，就能提高赢利。因为有证据表明消费者对于自己种蔬菜越 来越有兴趣，他举例说当地的一种家蕊杂志很有市场。另外他说，一项全国性调查显示消 费者对于超市里蔬菜的质量不满意，以说明为什么人们对自己种蔬菜越来越感兴趣。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Though consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarkets, this can't lead to the conclusion that consumers are more interested in growing their own vegetables. The proof is unwarranted. It's like while customers complain about some service, they are not ready to serve themselves. The purpose of their shouting out their dissatisfaction is to urge an improvement of vegetable service. 2.The magazine might be welcome by the gardeners who are more interested in flower gardening instead of vegetables. Anyway there is no indication that the magazine is mainly about vegetable planting. 3.Hasty conclusion. 1)Though that magazine has sold out 3 months in a row, whether the trend may goes on is unwarranted, because gardening magazine might bear some seasonal characteristics. 2)On the other hand, if the magazine were issued in a limited number, it appears to sell well, however, to greatly expand the variety of vegetable seeds might cause overstock. 2． 1. The arguer does not provide sufficient evidence so as to draw the conclusion that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. (1) People are possibly complaining just to call forth the attention of the government. And a national wide survey cannot be used as a proof to support the local situation. (2) A one-month time is not so long a period as to determine the inclination of the people. (3) The out of sale of the gardening magazine may be due to the decrease of the gross amount of its publishing. 2. Even the situation of people's fondness of growing vegetables themselves. It will not be the case that the Green Thumb should greatly expand the variety of vegetable seeds, instead, they should store the kinds of seeds that people intend mostly to buy. 015. 现象分析，提出应对措施-公司前景分析与股票操作 The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors. "Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company." 简要翻译： Old Dairy Industries 的销量可能会大幅减少，利润也无疑会降低，所以该卖股份了，其他 人也别入股进来。因为他大部分的产品都是高脂肪高卡路里的，而如今低脂肪产品很多， 人们也有降低脂肪和卡路里摄入的愿望，为此他还引用了一个调查，表明有 80%的人是这 样的。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.To desire and to do are two different concepts. Many people desire to lose weight through a balanced, but they keep eating what they like. 2.There are still 20 percent who don't care about fats and cholesterol. And the thin or young ones might need fats and cholesterol, so OD solely fill in their needs while all the other stores feature in low-fat products without exception. Moreover, not all of OD foods contain high fats and cholesterol; some might be very popular. 3.There is no indication whatsoever that fats and cholesterol are something that human bodies do not need. In other words, OD is healthy food by nature, and it might still stand a chance to win the marketing competition. 4.Before stockholders sell their shares, they must study the achievements of the enterprise on a more general scale across a wider time span. No statistical information is given in that regard. Perhaps OD has been on the stock market for years, and the prices have risen steadily and surely these years, though there might have been small fluctuations. In addition, the survey result might not stand for the future trend. 2． The arguer suggests in this argument that Old Dairy stockholder should sell their shares and other investor should not purchase stock of Old Dairy. This suggestion is based on the assumption that many consumers show that they will less consume foods containing fats and cholesterol, many of which are produced by Old Dairy, hence Old Dairy's sales will probably reduce largely as well as the profits. It seems reasonable at first glance, however, the arguer's position does not hold up careful scrutiny. Firstly, the result of the survey, upon which the suggestion rests, is too vague to be information. The arguer fails to tell us some crucial information, for example, where was the survey conducted? Who were investigated in this survey? What demographic characters did they have? If this survey was conducted in the nationwide or other areas rather than where Old Dairy Industries locate, this survey result cannot demonstrate the attitudes of local people, who are current consumers of Old Dairy, and therefore lose validity to support the argument. Given that this survey result was conducted in local area, yet another important factor should be considered is that whether the respondents are sampled randomly and whether their opinion is representative for that of consumers of Old Dairy as a whole. Perhaps, most of respondents are the old, who cannot take in much fat and cholesterol in concerning of health, or are young women, who will consume fewer fats to keep good shape. In such cases, of course, they would incline to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. Secondly, the arguer fails to convince us that Old Dairy's sales as well as profits will diminish largely. Only pointing out that many food products market by Old Dairy at present are high in fats and cholesterol, the arguer ignores to mention the other food products which may be low-fat products produced by Old Dairy without being marketed. It is possible that since the food products with high fats and cholesterol are not welcomed in market as those low-fat products, so the company mainly focus no marketing them, whereas low-fat products do not need at all. It is also cannot exclude the possibility that food products with high fats and cholesterol merely make up a small fraction of Old Dairy's entirely food products, thence, the sales of the food products with high fats and cholesterol cannot have great impact on that of entirely food products produced by Old Dairy. In addition, profits will not reduce unless when other conditions are kept unchanged and the sales decrease. It is impossible for Old Dairy to take no actions when they witness company's sales declining. Reducing the cost relating to production and resources, augment the price of products, such kinds of methods may conduce to keep profits from decreasing. In summary, the argument is not convincing since the evidence provided lacks credibility, therefore cannot lend strong support to the conclusion the arguer maintains. To better evaluate the argument, we need more substantial statistical data concerning the survey, and furthermore, a thorough understanding of the sales of the entire food products of Old Dairy, not only that of containing fats and cholesterol is indispensable. 017. 比较引论-选择合作公司 The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper. "Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance." 简要翻译： EZ 比 ABC 好，所以还应该继续用 EZ。因为虽然 E 的费用高，但是 E 每周收两次垃圾， A 每周只收一次，而且 E 最近还新添了垃圾车，会提供更多的服务。另外有 80%的被访问 者同意他们对 E 的服务满意。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Whether it's necessary that the trash be disposed twice a day is should be elaborated. 2.Are the fleet of 20 trucks and some additional trucks more efficient in collecting the trash than EZ disposal? Or was it simply a procession ceremony for a higher charge? 3.though the respondents claimed to be 'satisfied', does that really reflect the idea in the very core of their heart? Or they just did them the courtesy by saying that, because they've served their neighborhood for 10 years? 2． 1. EZ collects trash twice a week, but it is not necessarily needed. If the town's trash is not so much and just need dispose it once week, it's better hire ABC Waste. Because ABC's fee is much cheaper than EZ. 2. Although EZ has more additional trucks, but its trucks are not certainly used for disposing trash. Walnut, this town, does not really need so many trucks for disposal of trash. 3. 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were "satisfied" with SZ's performance. Yet, how much percent of citizens composed the respondents? It is not necessarily the majority. Or later, if hire ABC Waste, the satisfaction may improve more than 80%. Then why not switch to ABC? 018. 反驳-比较-提出解决办法---高速公路限速 The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper. "In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago." 简要翻译： 要想提高道路安全，就必需改善路况。因为另一个城市五年前这么做了，他们去年的事故 记录比五年前低了 25%。而该市政日子近采取的限速措施并不成功，应该取消。因为大多 数司机的速度都超过这个限制，事故发生率也只是降低了一点。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.The lowering of the speed limit has taken into effect, because the accident rate has decreased. 2.False analogy. 1)Butler might have had many accidents 5 years ago, so 25 percent fewer is still quite high. 2)Prunty County's lane widths might be wide enough. And the surface of the roads are smooth enough. No need to increase lane widths or resurfacing rough roads. 3. If 55 mph speed limit is still taken, probably more accidents would take place. People always have the tendency of exceeding the speed limit. Though many drivers are exceeding the speed limit of 45 mph, they can't go so far as to 55 mph. When 55 is allowed, they might reach a speed of 60mph, and cause more accidents. 2． The arguer draws the conclusion that Prunty County should restore its speed limit since it seems to have failed. By a comparison with the nearby Butler County, the arguer believes that road improvement project will be much more effective to reduce accidents rate than speed limit does. The argument seems sound at first glance, however, there are some flaws which weakened it. First of all, the arguer compares the effects of the two methods each executed in the two town. The 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County seems to be convincing and attractive, while Prunty County only sees a slight decrease of accident rate. However, the comparision is not based on same time spans. The time limit is only introduced into Prunty County while Butler County took the road improvement five years ago. We might also feel regret for the seemingly vain effort for the road improvement if we looked back to Butler County of four and a half years ago. Any discipline takes some time to be accustomered and obeyed. So it's unwise for Prunty County makes the rash decision of restore speed limit to 55 mph. The arguer, by laying emphasis on the road improvement project of Butler County, may have negelected the possibility that Butler County has set up more restrict traffic laws and has provided more traffic security instruction to its people at the same time. Though there are some inevitable accidents, much more could have been avoided if both drivers and walkers keep better alert and pay more attention. On the other hand, the proposal of widen and re-surface roads may also be so easy as the arguer has put it. Without any knowledge of the road and traffic conditions of the two county, we couldn't assume those which had been carried out five years ago in one county may have been as easy today in another county. For instance, Butler may have few popular and traffic five years ago, which made it possible to improve main roads without difficult. However, Prunty today may see a heavy traffic, which makes it impossible to carry out a large-scale road improvement. In sum, I agree that improving road condition, if executable, will be helpful to decrease accident rate, however, the speed limit shouldn't be regard as useless since it hasn't have enough time to take eminent effect. On the other hand, more complete and rigid traffic law and more traffic knowledge instructions will also help Prunty County to reduce its accident rate. 020. 比较引论－没有可比性－没有考虑其他因素－市政交通 The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette. "The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals." 简要翻译： 降低租车数量，镇里的事故会减少 50%。因为隔壁去年这样做取得了这样的成绩。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Fails to consider that besides rented mopeds, many riders have their own mopeds which are beyond the town council's control if the latter only limit the number of mopeds rented. 2.No statistics show that higher population tends to cause a higher rate of moped accidents in Balmer, which might be a large island to offer enough space for 100,000 people on the streets. Compared to the convenience offered by mopeds, this policy needs a reconsideration. 3.False analogy. The neighboring island might have serious moped accidents record before the last year, while there have been few similar accidents in Balmer so far. 2． 1。人口剧增可能是旅客来到岛上的原因，夏季过后会减少，同时，游客更强烈需要更多的 交通工具代步。 2。岛上的道路建设足以应付需要，不一定要仿效 Torseau 岛的做法。 3。只是限制 6 间公司的方法不见得行得通，如果有大量的无牌车，问题是得不到解决的。 021. 未考虑其他因素，缺乏充分的事实依据－产品调整 The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing. "Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase." 简要翻译： 重新做衣服，公司赢利会上升。因为这种服装会卖得很好，市场上肯定会有大量需求，而 且五年来服装价格每年都会上升，人们肯定愿意付比五年前更高的价格来购买这种服装。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Whether the quality of the new fabric is also high? If not, there is no guarantee it'll sell well. 2.Though the major competitor stops making alpaca overcoat, other competitors might have emerged to make it. Or the alpaca overcoat sells badly so the major competitor stops making it. 3.When price of most types of clothing has risen in recent years, customers might not be willing to buy those with significantly price increases. They would compare which ones are comparatively cheaper, or they would simply turn to those with steady prices or lower degrees of increase. 4.Since Sartorian has stopped making overcoat for 5 years, the marketing situation has changed a lot. Their old experiences might not take effect. A thorough investigation is needed. 2． 1.开头：作者意图，但不具说服力； 2.alpaca overcoat 停产了 5 年之久，公司在此方面的了解就会断层，在未了解当前市场形势 之前，千万不可贸然行事； 3.主要竞争者的退出，应该引起注意，他们不会笨得明明知道有钱赚而淡出此行，一定有原 因，所以公司应该重视； 4.作者从绝大多数衣服价格的上涨就断然推出，他们必然会愿意花更多的钱在 alpaca overcoats 上，是十分荒谬的； 5.结论，由于证据不确凿，作者应该仔细调查一下市场情况，并提出更加有力的论据来支持 他的观点。 026. 局部与整体，决定因素-人事选拔 The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of Saluda. "For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions. In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years. Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system." 简要翻译： 应该雇 Mr. Charles Schade 去指导整个学校系统的普通音乐教育课程。因为在他指导钢铁 中学音乐教育的五年里，该校的乐队获得了三次地区乐队比赛。而且该校的音乐水平和设 施也都有显著提高。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Other causal components exist as significant as Mr CS's contribution including the students' innate high gifts in music,the school's initial superior substantial foundations and the faculty's collective endeavor as well .In addition, it can say little about the director on the basis of the markably improved instruments and equiptions. 2.Even if Mr.CS is indeed an excellent specialist in directing the music course,making the general plan for music education program is distinguishingly another thing which calls for much more generality rather than expertise. 3.Mr CS's unfamiliarity about the new environment may conversely lead to an unexpected failure. 2． 1.尽管 Mr. Schade 有重要作用，Steel City High School 和 Steel City 的音乐氛围是很关键的， 如果当地本来就是传统的音乐城市，这方面的教育必然是强项，然而，Saluda 的情况就不 一定如此了； 2.Mr. Schade 深谙 Steel City High School 和 Steel City 的教育体制，他的方法在当地就能发 挥地淋漓尽致，但是，如何换到另一个陌生的地方 Saluda，他的努力就不一定会奏效了； 3.如果 Saluda 还是一个基础教育比较薄弱的地方，它的近期教育目标就不应该是 music， 而是当地教育的基础建设了，雇 Mr. Schade 来发展音乐教育显然不适合当地的现状。 027. 缺乏综合考虑，太片面-人事政策 The following appeared as part of a memo from the president of Automate, a company that manufactures automobiles. "It has come to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company that just moved into our state, is advertising job openings at salaries that are twice as high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line workers. Some of our employees have already left to work for Sparks. In order to keep our best staff, we must pay them salaries equal to those Sparks pays its employees. Otherwise we will continue to lose employees in the future, because Sparks must staff the additional new plants that it plans to build in the state." 简要翻译： 如果我不付给员工和 Sparks 一样多的钱，今后就会继续流失员工。因为 Sparks 登广告用 高于我们有经验的工人一倍的薪水招聘。目前我们有员工已经辞职去了 Sparks，而 Sparks 为他在这个州新建的厂必定还要招人。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.false analogy.the arguer fails to estabish the causal relationship between Sparks and Automate. 2.the arguer fails to give us the exact numbers of employee who went to Sparks,maybe just two,or that might be more of Sparks's employees went to Automate. 3.hasty generation.there is no evidence that given more salary would be entice more employee in that a suitble job not only depends on salary but more on interst .for that reason,Automate must find its own defacts and improve it. 4.there is no credibilty that if Automate do not pay more salary that would lose more employee and it is lack strong support that Sparks will plant more factories in the state. 2． 开始简明说明一下错误 1.应该分清究竟哪些人走了，是技术骨干还是垃圾工人 2.应该调查员工离开的真正原因，仅仅因为工资，还是现在本厂有弊端，新厂有创新举措 3.应该考虑现实实际，如果本厂经营正面临困难，发不出工资怎么涨工资，况且部分员工离 开可能是一件好事 4.是否会持续流失员工 结束 028. 没有相关性，调查的可信度-学校政策 The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district. "A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each school day." 简要翻译： 我们应该向所有学生提供早餐。因为上课前吃早餐对于降低学生旷课迟到有很大作用。最 近在提供早餐的学校做的一项研究显示，5 到 12 岁的孩子中，吃学校早餐的孩子比别人孩 子少旷课少迟到。而且我们都知道经常吃健康早餐的孩子在学校表现要好一些。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. 在校吃早餐的学生可能本来就是住校生，对他们来说，迟到旷课几率必然很小，主要原 因是住校，而不是因为早餐在学校吃； 2. 学校的早餐不一定就 healthy，证明他的"It is also well known that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school."是离题的； 3. 作者的 suggestion 说叫全部学生都在学校吃早餐太绝对了，是不可能实施的，迟到旷课 有时也是正常的事（如生病，交通堵塞等）。 2． 1.Simplification: a.coincidence:research carried on and education reform executed spontaneousely b.maybe students would prefer breakfast at home than at school c.deficient evidence showing the relationship between eating breakfast and improving the students' time concept as well as concentration in class 2.Merely a six-month research on Mylar Schools' 100 students is not sufficient enough: hasty generalization and sample flaw 029. 没有可比性，缺乏综合考虑，得出结论太片面、武断-政府选举 When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor. 简要翻译： 如果 McAllister 宣布她禁止汽车进入公园，她就保证会成为新市长。因为另一个城市的前 任市长就是因为这样做的，并受到称赞，而且本市的市民大部分都参与市区的垃圾重复利 用工程。 推荐提纲： 1． Ida McAllister want to win over in the mayor election by prohibiting automobile traffic in all Lake City parks and she provided us with the evidence that there has been an example for her action and the citizen will support her in the run if she did it. Her argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned because there lie in her reasoning some faults. First, she ignored the consequence of forbidding automobile traffic in all Lake City parks. Some of the parks may be very so large that it is impossible for people to travel in it on foot. Second, she made a wrong analogy between Lake City and Plainsville. The difference between them is not considered carefully. For example, the parks in Plainsville are commonly small and it is convenient for tourists to walk in it while the parks in Lake City are usually very large. Third, those who participate in the community's recycling program are not certain to be interested in prohibiting automobile traffic. Many of them propably support the traffic in parks. Finally but not the least error in her reasoning is that she and Alecia Yu have the same capacity as a leader. She did not thought of other measures that Alecia Yu has done for his success. In summary, Ida McAllister should take into account what is above-mentioned before she make any final decisions. 2． 1. Mcallister's failure in the election may have had causes other than her neclection environmental causes at that time. 2. the conditions of the two cities may deviate from each other. (trafic condition, environmental condition) 3. participating in recycling program doesn't promise citizens' willingness to participate automobile prohibition 030. 论据与论证没有相关性-市政 According to information recently reported in the Eliottown Gazette, the number of people who travel to Eliottown has increased significantly over the past several years. So far this year over 100,000 people have arrived on flights to Eliottown's airport, compared with only 80,000 last year and 40,000 the year before. Eliottown's train station has received more than 50,000 passengers this year, compared with less than 40,000 last year and 20,000 the year before. Clearly tourism in Eliottown has been increasing, thanks to the new Central Park and Museum of Modern Art that opened last year. Therefore, the funding for the park and museum should be increased significantly. 简要翻译： 应该给公园和博物馆多拨钱。因为去年开张的中心公署和现代艺术博物馆为当地吸引了很 多游客。论断指出过去几年里到当地旅游的人明显增多，并指出今年乘飞机和坐火车来的 旅客都比前两年多很多。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Eliottown may just work as an interchange and the number of people arrived at Eliottown may not have all been tourists. 2. actually the increase of last year is faster than this year, which shows that the Park and Museum are not the main factors contributing to the growth. 3. it's unreasonable that the newly opened park and museum will be a deadly attraction for tourists. 2． The notion that to increase tourism in Eliottown funding for public parks and Art museum has to be increased significantly seems to be the conclusion in the first glance. The argument is based on unreasonable assumptions, which has no clear evidences. Lets consider all the assumptions made in the above topic. First of all, the author assumes that there has been significant increase in the number of people who travel to Eliottown over the years. It could be that businesses are picking up Eliottown and many business clients are attracted to the town, who pays visits to the town on business purposes. Therefore, to strengthen the argument for the assumption, the author has to cite enough and strong evidences about the increase of the people who travel to Eliottown. Secondly, it was presumed that there has been significant increase in the number of people who arrive at the Eliottown's airport compared with previous couple of year 抯 data. There could many reasons involved for the increase. For example, it could be that one of the airlines in Eliottown's airport has made the town as their hub for the business, which further increases the number of people who arrive at the airport. Moreover, it could be a connecting stop for many airlines, which would have increased the number. Hence, the author has to provide evidence that the people who arrive at Eliottown are headed towards the town to visit the newly established tourist spots, to strengthen his argument. Third,it was assumed that there is an increase in the number of people who arrive at the train stations. Infact, it could be that the arrived passengers might try to visit nearby resorts of Eliottown for their weekend to make it as a getaway trip and escape from their busy schedules. Furthermore, it could be nearby mountains, which are accessible for trekking and camping in mountain forests. The author has to provide enough evidence that the arrived passengers are only interested in visiting Eliottown and thus would strengthen the argument that the tourism in Eliottown has been increased over years. Finally, I concur to the point that the number of passengers that arrive at Eliottown's airport and train stations has to be counted to know the increase in toursim since couple of years, but the evidences should be thoroughly evaluated to know if the passengers are headed only towards Eliottown's newly developed tourists spots, which would make the situation explicit for evaluation if the funding for parks and museums would increase the tourism, and thus the argument presented by author would strong hold. 034. 现象与本质的差异--没有相关性-饮食与健康 Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis. 简要翻译： 吃奶制品会提高患这种病的可能性。因为一项研究发现坚持吃奶制品的人比其他人都更高 的骨折率，而骨折是这种病的一个病症。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. There is the possibility that who consumed milk and dairy much more than enough can have the negative effect, which even makes the bones easier to fractured. 2. There are other relevant factors affecting whether one have bone fractures or not, such as heavy physical labor involved. 3. Bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis but not equal to osteoporosis. Maybe consuming milk and dairy increases the chance of bone fractures but at the same time decrease the chance of other symptoms which are much dangerous than bone fractures. 2． 1.Not all dairy products are rich in VD,however the arguer only mentioned milk, his theory is based on too broad issues. 2.bone fractures does not equal osteoporosis. since osteoporosis is a disease linked with increase of age, while fractures happens in boarder scope in every age and situation.eg. accidents , little children . 3.Too much VD might cause negative effects.the result of the survey is based only on those consistently consumed dairy products. the arguer did not mention those have dariy products now and then: are they in a decreased risk of osteoporosis ? 035. 没有相关性，不是关键因素-药品与健康 The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia. "Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia." 简要翻译： S 的新用途会继续平稳地降低居民平均头疼。因为 S 与阿司匹林同属一个化学家庭。过去几 十年中食品公司把 S 作为防腐剂添加到食品中，一项长达 20 年的研究发现这种商业用途的 增加伴随着头疼报告的下降。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the participants in the twenty-year study may have been victims of headaches, so the adding of salichlates are helpful to them. However, to those who are not suffering headache, additional salicylates may be useless or even harmful. 2. the decline in the average number of headaches may not only be the contribution of salicylates when added to foods as preservatives. Those patients may have paid attention to their illness and turned to doctors for help, or taken up more physical exercises so as to keep themselves healthier. 3. there may be differences in dose when salicylates works as preservatives and as flavor additives. The new application of this medicine in food engineering has not undergone long term verification so whether or not it is safe is questionable. 2． 1. salicylates 虽然与"a steady decline in the average number of headaches"有关（correlate） ， 可能它的确可以治疗头疼，但它不一定是起主导作用的因素，decline 可能是由其他因素决 定的； 2. salicylates 添加在 flavor additives 里面，就不一定会对头疼有治疗作用了，因为有可能会 发生物理或化学反应（尽管它被证实是可以添加在 flavor additives 里面的）； 3. 不是说 salicylates 越多就对头疼的治疗效果越好，任何东西都讲究适量，物极必反嘛； 4. 把治疗头疼的 salicylates 添加在食品及 flavor additives 中，对不头疼的人是否有不良影 响。 036. 过去与现在不可比，推理错误-人文研究 The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist. "Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures." 简要翻译： 旧观点是错误的，而且以观察为中心的文化研究方法是无效的。因为我最近对包括这个村 在内的岛的采访发现，这儿的孩子谈论生理父母比村里其他成年人更多。而我的工作采用 以访问为中心的方法，将建立起对该岛文化与儿童抚养传统更准确的理解。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the culture of Tertia island may have changed during this 20 years. 2. the recent interviews are not only focused on children of Tertia island, so the conclusion may not be valid. 3. that children talk more about their biological parents does not follow that they are not reared by the entire village. 4. to a relatively insular culture, the interview-centered method is not as accurate as observation-centered one because the former will embarrass those aboriginal children 2． 1. "children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village"不一定就否定了"children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents"，an entire village 的教育有可能强调 parents， 而使孩子们对 parents 乃至 family 有所关注，所以采访中他们谈话的话题就会偏向 biological parents 啦； 2. Dr. Field 的研究结果有可能来自多方面的详细调查（如 interview,历史资料,教育设备,教育 状况等） ，而 Dr. Karp 仅靠 interviews 就推翻了 Dr. Field 的观点，显然是不充分的； 037. 未考虑其他可能、影响因素-人文研究 Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat, but there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river-the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game. It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea. 简要翻译： 这种篮子不只 P 有。因为与他们住的地方隔一条河的地方也被发现有这个篮子，河很深只 能划船过，但又没有证据证明 P 有般，而且能装很多 人的船是在他们消失后几千年才出现 的。另外 P 也没有必要过河，因为他们那边的山上长满了坚果草莓。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the Brim River may not have been so deep and broad at that time, and acient Paleans may have been able to swim across the river. Or there might be small boats for them to cross the river, which can only contain 1 or 2 persons. 2. there might not have been woods full of nuts, berries around Palea at acient time, and Paleans had to look for other source of foods. Even there were enough food available, they might also have explored Lithos for other aims. 3. only one basket was discovered in Lithos, which implies that antient Lithos people might not have made such baskets. 2． 1 the plates of the earth are always moving.maybe the Brim River do not exist thousands of years ago.it was a flatsland then.the river was formed in recent century.people in Lithosand Palea could exchange productions easily. 2 the boats which were made by the Palean people were ruined many years ago.so archaeologists can not find any historical remains. 3 it is true that the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game,but most people did not like the fruits and games manufactured in themselves'area.they rather visitedtheir neighbour region to buy some food. 038. 片面，导致某种现象、结果有很多种因素、原因，并不能得出这样的结论-药品推销 The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council. "An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism." 简要翻译： 吃 Ichthaid 是防止感冒和旷课的好办法。因为一项研究表明，东部地区吃鱼多的地方每年 只去医院接受两次感冒治疗，这说明吃大量的鱼能够防止感冒。而又因为感冒是人们旷课 旷工的最常用理由。 推荐提纲： 1． EM, high consumption of fish -> low visiting rate of doctor for colds Author: eating fish -> prevent colds Fish oil product -> prevent colds -> reduce absenteeism 1. EM's low visiting rate of doctor for cold treatment may lie in their physical nature, environment, or even the tradition of avoiding visiting doctor for cold. 2. even if eating fish can prevent cold, fish oil products may not replace fresh fish for this purpose. 3. other reasons contribute to absenteeism 2． 1． 可能在 EM 地区的人身体健康条件比较好，不易得病，或者在感冒来临之前，他们已 经采取的预防措施； 2． EM 地区的交通不便利，医院很远，人们不能经常看病，或者，人们认为感冒是小病， 不值得去医院； 3． 感冒可能是一个很好得借口不去上班或学校，不一定人们真正得了感冒； 4． 即使吃鱼多能降低感冒率，但是可能 EM 地区离海或湖近，比较容易吃到鱼，而别的 地区不一定附近有海或湖，因此不能单体推整体； 5． 作者没有提供 Ichthaid 中应包含多大含量的鱼油才能预防感冒。 039. 比较引论-片面推理，有很多因素起作用-教育 The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College. "Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni." 简要翻译： 为了提高注册数和解决财政赤字，我们应该开设远程学位。因为我们学校过去三年的注册 数一直在下降而维持建筑的花费一直在上升。论者举例说 O 校去年注册远程学位的学生增 加了 50%，同年 O 校在宿舍和考证上的开销比前一年有明显下降。 推荐提纲： 1． Author's presumptions: enrollment in long-distance instruction programs -> decrease in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space 1. initiate and promote long-distance degree programs -> the programs will be welcomed by students as well as in Omni University, and enrollment increases 2. traditional program is the main cause of the decrease in enrollment and rise in costs and enrollment. 3. the new programs won't cost more than the traditional ones did. 2． 开头：Omni University 的远程教学学生的增加， 与 expenditures for dormitory and classroom space 没有必然联系。 1. Omni 的 a significant decrease in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space 不一定 是 long-distance programs 造成的，有可能是去年大规模建设校舍，而今年没有了，那这方 面的支出就明显减少了； 2. Humana College 是一间专业比较偏，就业形势比较差的学校，或者它的教学质量不好， 导致不好名声而影响生源的话，利用远程教学手段来挽救学校的窘况依然是不理智的； 3. Humana College 的生源有可能大多数是全日制学生，而非如 Omni University 的远程教 学，那么它的维持校舍的成本必然会相对高一点（由于通货膨胀而使费用比以前增加），但 如果它的学生收费较高而有利润，那依然是可取的； 结尾：尽管 Omni University 的 long-distance degree programs 是值得借鉴的，但依然要按 各自的具体情况决定学校的发展策略，而不能一味地照搬。 040. 行为间的不相关性，未把握关键因素-公司策略调整 The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets. "In 90 towns where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food products-products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides-have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets." 简要翻译： 为了提高利润，我们应该在所有的商场里全线推出有机食品。因为在 90 个我们的市场边都 出现有天然食品尤其是专营有机食品的竞争者。论者举例说，一份对于我们自己顾客的调 查显示有越来越多的人关注食品使用杀虫剂和化学防腐剂。最近我们在太阳城的商场参加 了一次当地的食品品尝会，75%到我们柜台来的人要求免费品尝有机水果。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. only one example of Sun City is not enough for a decision over all markets over 90 towns. 2. organic food products are of higher costs and hence higher prices. So profits may not increase. 3. stocking full line of organic food products may cause Excello to lose its current customers. 2． (1)Organic food may not soon be prevalent cuz it's far more expensive than normals,adding househood overhead.after all their customers show only concern at present. (2)profit on organic food may not as exicted as expected as its accoardingly high overhead (3)edidence in sun city should not be solely taken into account of 90 towns (4)fair-goes and 75% who ask for sample of organic food are part of multitudes. 041. 对决定性因素的把握-合作公司选择 The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food-distribution company with food-storage warehouses in several cities. "Recently we signed a contract with The Fly-Away Pest-Control Company to provide pest-control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest-Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff Company for all our pest-control services." 简要翻译： 尽管新公司比 B 公司便宜，但重新让 B 公司为我们全线杀虫是省钱的最好方法。因为我们 在 P 城新签的那家公司不得利，上个月我们发现超过 2 万美元的食物被虫破坏。而同时在 W 城，为我们服务多年的 B 公司很好，上个月只有 1 万美元的食物被虫破坏 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the loss of last month in Palm City should be compared with that of the months before of the same city, not that of the Wintervale (differences in food, climat, local pest situation) 2. the prices charged should be taken into account. ( ((anticipated loss)-(real loss))/charge = efficiency ) 3. the food destryed in Palm City may partly be the fault of Buzzoff, the former service company 2． 1. Obviously, last month, more money is lost in Fly-Away, but if the rate there is much lower than Buzzoff, whose quantity of food is much less, it means that Fly-Away did better job; 2. The survey of last month is not convincing, in that we need average survey which is from a adequate long time; 3. By the way, Fly-Away charged lower price, it is a considerable factor; 4. Since Buzzoff has serviced for a long time but was changed to Fly-Away, sure there are some problems in Buzzoff's service, which is the fatal question that is ignored by the arguer. 042. 比较引论，不同地方，不同特点，是否存在可比性？--政府政策 The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra. "In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign." 简要翻译： 论者提出我们非常应该推广生态旅游，并进一步建议雇用 B 国旅游办的现任经理做广告顾 问。因为 B 国去年开始用广告推动生态旅游，今年到 B 国主要机场的外国游客多了一倍， 而且他们的收也增加了 10%。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.P country lack the tourism resource 2.B's increased foreig visitors ,as well as the increased income ,may not due to tourism. 3.Preserving the natural environment cannot be achived by ecotourism. 4.The director of B is not familiar with the situation of P. 2． 1. Paraterra may not have so appealing natural environment than Bellegea 2. current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office may be a native of Bellegea, and is not very familiar with the ecologically resource of Paraterra. 3. Paraterra may have good transport system ( airport ), while Bellegea is just a timy country which cannot offer convenient transport to tourists. 043. 比较引论-是否存在可比性?忽视了整体考虑，决定性的因素-公司策略调整(没考过) The following appeared as part of a business plan developed by the manager of the Rialto Theater. "Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades, must make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow the example of the new Apex Theater in the mall outside of town. When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the Rialto intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same features as Apex." 简要翻译： 如果 R 要在引人注目的电影市场中继续保持他的份额，他就必须提供像 A 一样的服务。A 去年开业提供了一些先进的小规模服务，另外一份最新的调查显示，超过 85%的被访问者 认为最近发行的电影的高价格，使他们每年去电影院的次数不会超过 5 次。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Rialto Theater will have to make great investment on those luxurious features, which will not only subject the theatre to financial cricis, but also make price of movies higher. 2. due to the downtown location and five decades' history, Rialto does not seem to have established a stable group of moviegoers. Such a great change may cause loss of customers. 3. no evidence shows Apex, the recently opened, out-town theater, has enjoyed satisfactory profit last year. 2． 1.differences in location plays a very crucial part in the choice of moviegoers. 2.plush carpeting and seats will ineluctably increase the ticket price. And it is contravene to people's will. 3.the pool of moviegoers will not necessarily decrease. If RMT discard the decoration of Apex and choose common but equally comfort environment for audiences, it can greatly reduce the price problem, which plays a vital part in people's decision on whether go to theater or not, outweighs much more than the environment factor. Enventually RMT can attract more and more potential audiences and raise its income. 4.no evidence shows the appreciable profit AT get last year. 044. 新举动的双面影响，整体不能代表个体-公司策略 The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books. "Monarch Books should open a café in its store to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened a café. Monarch, which has been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer following because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Opening the café would clearly attract more customers. The café would require relatively little space. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will likely become less popular given that the last national census indicated a significant decline in the percent of the population who are under age ten." 简要翻译： 论者建议 M 应该开咖啡角。因为对手最近开了咖啡角。另外 M 开咖啡角一定能吸引更多的 顾客。另外他还建议，咖啡角应开在儿童书柜，因为最近的全国人口普查显示，十岁以下 人口有明显有下降。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.false analogy. Regal might have a larger area and therefore can afford a café without cutting any of its book section while Monarch is restricted in area and even if a café is opened, it would be too crowded and noisy to attract any drinkers. Though a café itself doesn't need much space, a peaceful environment is a necessity. 2.Children under 10 may not constitute a major proportion of children's books' readers. 3.even though M has been at the location for 20 years, customers have known it as a book store rather than a café. There is no guarantee they would show any interest in its to-be-opened café, esp. when there are already several exquisite or famous cafes nearby, which is very possible. 2． 1. no evidence shows that a café woule attract more customers to the bookstore. 2. decline in percent of population under age ten does not follow the decrease of absolute number of children. 3. even if the absolute number of children declines, the children's book section may also keep popular. ( families of more than one child may re-use children books, while those of one children may pay more attention to the preliminary education of their children. 045. 没有相关性，必然的因果关系，虽然一种行为/现象伴随着另一种行为/现象-野生动物 The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal. "Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea." 简要翻译： 鹿的数目下降的原因是气温上升。国为气温上升使得海上的冰融化，鹿无法按照传统在冰 冻的海面上迁徙。他举例说，最近当地的猎人报告说鹿的数目在下降，而这种下降又伴随 全球气温上升的趋势。 推荐提纲： 1． The arguer concludes that the decline of the deer population in Canada is exclusively due to the warming trends which check the deer's regular moving between islands for fodder. Inspecting carefully about the conclusion above, three conspicuous defects in its logical reasoning emerge: 1. the hunters, referred by the arguer, is of highest probability to contribute to the decline in deer population. 2. the remains of deer have not been found larger than before, thus the population is not necessarily on declining. The mass deer maybe confined in one large island where there is enough food for them to live by, so there is less chance for hunters to see them. 3. the world-wide warming does not mean that the temperature is unable to freeze the water on the sea and form the pass for the deer to walk. 2． 1. other reasons such as hunting, introducing of natural enimy, may contribute to the decline in deer populations. 2. since the covering of ice over separate islands may only be formed in several months of a year, Arctic deer may not have rigid migratin patterns. 3. no concrete evidence shows that the sea ice is melting in deer habitates, and that deers die because of not being able to migrate. 046. 论据不充分-动物 Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador, grizzly bears-often similar in color, but much larger-were believed to exist only in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador, modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu, a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear. 简要翻译： L 地可能有过 G 熊，探险者的描述也可能准确地认出了这个熊。因为最近对于一在东部地 区生活了几千年的民族的语言和传说研究发现，他们的语言中有两个词语描述两种不同的 熊，而且他们古老的传说也给这两种熊赋予不同的特征。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the two description of Innu for the two bear did not point out that one of the description are denote the existence of grizzly bear. 2. there's no proof that the two words used by Innu is created by themselves, that's mean, the two words maybe introduced from foreign languages. their legends may already exist for a long time before their immigration to Labrador, so the bears mentioned in the legends do not ever live in Labrador, not to mention its qualification of prove the ever existence of grizzly bear. 2． 1. explorer's account 不可靠，尽管有科学价值，但也有可能是他本人的炒作，为了提高自 己的名声； 2. language and legends，就意味着有作者的想象夹杂其中，正如《三国演义》3 分假 7 分实， 以它们为根据的话，没有说服力; 3. 自然科学尤为需要 physical evidence ，没有了这个，其它文献之类的东西最多只能是作 为重要参考，对它们的推理没有绝对的准确性。 047. 缺乏事实依据，还有其他因素-对待历史纪录的态度、方法-地理研究 Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. 简要翻译： 突然的降温可能是由火山喷发引起的。因为在的火山喷发或是陨石撞地球都有可能导致全 球气温明显下降，但陨石撞击可能会产生瞬间的白闪光，但是没有现存的历史记录提到了 当时有这样的闪光，而一些现存的亚洲历史记录担到了巨响，那有可能是伴随一次火山喷 发。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. If the loud boom was a volcanic eruption as mentioned in Asian historical records of mic-sixth century, the impact of the dust cloud on appearance of sun and temperatures might have been limited to Asian area, excluding the European area. 2. meteorite collision might have happened above an unexplored or unhabitated area so that no one of that time saw the flare. other causes may have attributed to the decline in temperature 3. no physical evidence shows there were a volcanic eruption 2． Reasonable as it may see, the argument is called into question by several fallacies: 1. the cause of the cold weather pattern is not strictly confined in the two reason proposed by the arguer. Such catastrophic changes as the periodical change of the sun's orbit to a farther position can also contribute to the weather pattern. 2. the arguer has arrive at the conclusion that a collision explanation is excluded by mention the absence of record of a bright flash of light. But it based on the assumption that such flash is 'probable' in the collision. Thus, it is possible that a collision occurred without the so-called flash light. 3. only on condition that the volcanic eruption is worldwide and continuous can cause the sufficient dust cloud to reflect the sunlight, but the argument failed to mention the scale of the eruption and its time range. 048. 片面，缺乏横向、综合的比较-健康 The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora. "Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does." 简要翻译： 经济形势好了，健康水平会提高。目前全国健康协会说只有 1/4 的市民身体达标，而此时健 康有关的产品和服务上的开支异常的低。另外虽然全国健康协会说健康水平下降是多用电 脑造成的，但本城的健康水平高，同时电脑拥有量也高。所以显然电脑不是不健康的原因。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.The highest level in regions doesn't represent the average level of Corpora. The population of such regions is unkown,maybe it is only a small part of the whole population. 2.Lacks comparation. The arguer fails to take into account the past physical fitness level in such regions, may be it much more higher before computers come into widely use. 3.The unusually low expenditures is not neccessarily the result of the decline of the economy. there may other reasons, for example ,there may be oversufficient supplies and most local people might already have the fitness-related products. Addmited the local economy is in declination, there is no evidence to convince us that the major reason relate to the point. to conclude, the arguer fails to rule out the possible casual relationship between the decrease of the physical fitness level and the increasing computerazation, on the other hand, he lacks sufficient evidence to prove that the delination in the economy resposible for the decreased fitness level. 2． Facts: 1. half met standards 20 years ago; one quarter meet today. 2. levels are highest in regions where levels of computer ownership are highest author's conclusion: 1. using computer has not made less physically fit 2. decline in economy -> low expenditures on fit-rel products and services -> physical fit level drops 3. economy improves -> fitness levels improve 1. people in high computer using level regions tend to concern their heath much and deliberately invest on and practice physical exercise. 2. the economy situation may not have been so good as today 20 years ago but people still have higher fitness rate. There are a lot free physical exercise such as jogging, which are useful to keep people fit while need little investments. 3. economy improvement does not promise that people will spend more time keeping fit, therefore does not follow that the fitness level goes up as well. 050. 前提不正确，其他因素-地理 From a draft textbook manuscript submitted to a publisher. "As Earth was being formed out of the collision of space rocks, the heat from those collisions and from the increasing gravitational energy of the planet made the entire planet molten, even the surface. Any water present would have evaporated and gone off into space. As the planet approached its current size, however, its gravitation became strong enough to hold gases and water vapor around it as an atmosphere. Because comets are largely ice made up of frozen water and gases, a comet striking Earth then would have vaporized. The resulting water vapor would have been retained in the atmosphere, eventually falling as rain on the cooled and solidified surface of Earth. Therefore, the water in Earth's oceans must have originated from comets." 简要翻译： 地球的海水一定是从慧星的起源的。因为地球的形成是太空石头撞击的结果，撞击使用权 得整个行星，甚至是表面都融化了。当时地球上的水都蒸发并跑到太空中。等到地球达到 它目前的体积，才有足够强的重力把空气和水汽留在大气中。而慧星要由冰构成，慧星撞 地球就会汽化，水汽会被留在大气层中，最终形成雨落在已冷却和坚固的地球表面。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Comets 直接形成海洋的可能性极低。1）撞击地球概率低；2) 就算 comets 形成水, 其存 在形式也可能是出液态之外的气态或固态; 2) 即便是液态, 构成整个海洋的比率微乎其微, 可忽略不计. 2. 形成原因很多。除了 comets 之外 1)地球本身储存着许多水能源, 通过水循环和降水形成 海洋; 2)水除了来源于物理变化,还可能以化学变化生成; 3) 要排除其他太空物质撞击地球 产生的水. 3. 从题目中得知, 由于地心引力是水蒸气保留在地球表面的大气层中。可以推理, 引力和一 定的水蒸气形成某种平衡。一旦这种平衡被破坏（comets 带来的水蒸气增加，而地心引力 不便），不能保证自然规律为了维持这种平衡， 增加的这部分水蒸气仍然被蒸发至太空。 更不用说形成海洋了。 2． 1. no evidence shows that there have been comets striking the earth after the earth bacame strong emough to hold water vapor around it as atmosphere 2. the water on earth might have come into being through chemical reaction rather than physical transformation 3. space objects other than comets might have contributed to the earth's ocean through collisions. 051. 比较引论-医疗***** The following appeared in a medical newsletter. "Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment." 简要翻译： 要建议有肌肉拉伤的病人服用抗生素。因为医生最近证实二次感染病人快速康复。在一项 对两组病人的研究中，第一组病人由专门从事体育药品的医生治疗，并在整个治疗中服用 抗生素，他们比一般的病人快 40%康复；第二组病人由普通医生治疗，尽管病人以为服用 的是抗生素，但实际吃的是糖片，他们的康复时间没有明显下降。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.The two groups of subjects on experiment might not be comparable without the personal data being collected respectively. The first group might be younger on average, or less serious in the degree of muscle strain. 2.To reach the conclusion about the secondary infection, the two groups should be compared directly to be of any effect. However, the first group's result was 40 percent quicker than "typically expected". Is the "typically expected" time longer or shorter than that of the second group? And from what was the second group's recuperating time was not "significantly reduced"? The standards are quite unclear here. 3.Muscle strain will recover sooner or later regardless of the secondary infection. It would be quite unscientific to advice each patient to take antibiotics as part of their treatment, because some patients are allergic to antibiotics. Some antibiotics, such as penicillin, are fatal to those allergic patients. 4.The conclusion is made too hasty because it has been admitted in the argument that the results are no more than preliminary ones. To be responsible for the patients and for the medical science in general, a more thorough research is definitely needed. 2． 1. there might be great difference between the two groups of patients ( those who went to see sports medical doctor might have acute muscle strain and those to general physician might have chronic muscle problems ) 2. whether there are other differences in the two doctors' treatments besides using antibiotics is unclear, which might have been the actual cause of the difference in recuperation time. ( the specialist in sports medicine might be much more familiar in treating muscle strain than the general physician is) 3. whether the two groups each contain enough randomly choosed patients is questionable. 053. 忽略了其他因素的影响-孩子性格决定因素 Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. 简要翻译： 出生前某素的高含量会使婴儿害羞，而且这种害羞会继续。因为研究者在 13 年前对 25 个 陌生刺激表现敏感的婴儿进行了研究，发现他们比其他婴儿更多地在秋季被怀上。而秋季 母亲体内的影响大脑功能的某素总产量会因为日光的下降而天然上升。如今这 25 名婴儿都 十几岁了，今年一项跟踪调查发现他们大部分都认为自己很害羞。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. 25 infants may not be sufficient 2. distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli may be a normal reaction among infants. 3. increased level of melatonin in mothers may not lead to the increasement in their babies. 4. shyness, especially self-identified one, may just be regular symptom of adolecence. Other teenagers may also have the same problem. 2． 1.数量问题，取样问题 2.推理出现不少问题，例如，daylight 在冬天比秋天更少，10 月怀胎使得大部分婴儿都有在 妈妈肚子里过秋天的可能（除非是早冬,, ）, 按作者的推理很容易得到一些可笑的结论。 3.婴儿天性保护自己使得他们的反应是自然本能，不足说明问题 4.没提另一半实验数据，没有类似 8：2 这样明显的比例本身就说明不了问题。 055. 局部代表不了整体，相关性-交通堵塞 The following appeared in a Letter to the Editor of the Shady Village newspaper. "Commuters are complaining that the rush hour traffic on Blue Highway between Shady Village and Bright City has doubled their commuting time. Some commuters have asked that an additional traffic lane be built, but the recent creation of such a lane on nearby Green Highway apparently attracted more commuters, judging from the fact that rush-hour traffic jams actually increased there this past winter. To reduce rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway, a bicycle lane should be added instead of a traffic lane. This approach will succeed because many citizens of Shady Village are avid bicyclists; 75 percent of respondents to a recent questionnaire distributed there said they would like to bicycle more hours per week than they currently do." 简要翻译： 在蓝高速增加一个自行车道而不是汽车道一定能解决问题。因为很多 S 村的人很热衷骑车， 最近一份在那儿的调查显示，75%的被访者说如果增加自行车道，他们每周骑车上班的时 间会比现在多。而最近在绿高速增加的汽车道在去年高峰时的堵车状况实际在上升，它显 然吸引了更多的车。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.False analogy. The traffic conditions of Green Highway might have been too poor before. One recent creation of a lane simple can't solve all the problem. 2.No evidence to show that people enjoy cycling to work. a)The distance between Shady Village and Bright City is long, and people might prefer to save energy for a whole day's work by driving. b) People have been complaining the commuting time's being doubled; if by bicycle, the time will be tripled, because the speed between the two means are of no comparison. 2． 1.the lane constructed nearby Green Highway does not show the futility in ameliorating the traffic condition. On the contrary, it indicates the dreadful need of building more lane near Green Highway. 2.to build a bicycle lane instead of a traffic lane will probably fail to reduce rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway since the arguer does not take into account the facts such as the distance that commuters travel from home to workplace. 3.the opinion revealed by the recent survey cannot represent that of all the commuters who travel between Shady Village and Bright City. 056. 特例不能代表全部-艺术收藏 Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how the Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision. Since archeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali, we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to create these statues. This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could only be used for life-size sculptures. It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found. In light of this development, collectors should expect the life-size sculptures to decrease in value and the miniatures to increase in value. 简要翻译： K 的艺术家是用实际人体做模型来雕刻的。因为考古学家最近在 K 发现了一些人头和手的 模型。这个发现解释了为什么 K 的小雕塑是抽象的完全另一种风格，因为模型只能用来做 真人大小的雕刻。它同时也解释了为什么很少有古代 K 的工具被发现。论者还认为这将使 得真人大小的雕像价值下降，小型雕像价值上升。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. molds of human heads and hands do not follow that every one of life-size sculptures was created by this method rather than by hand. The miniatures might not be abstract because of impossibility to use mold, but because they were made for other purposes 2. whether sculptures are valuable or not does not depends on how they were made, but depends on their aesthetic value and historical value. 3. ancient mold technique may add to the value of these life-size sculptures. 2． 1. The arguer fails to convince us that the life-size clay statues were made by using molds rather than by using sculpting tools and techniques. The discovery of molds of human heads and hands does not ensure that all the life-size clay was made by such molds. Besides only mold of head and hands were discovered, there is the possibility that ancient K people only use mold to made head and hands but sculpt the other part of clay. The different style of life-size statue and miniature stature maybe means that they are worked out by 2 group of sculptors, one specialized in life-size statue and one specialized in miniature stature, therefore the different standard of aesthesis depend on the different style of them. And the total amount of life-size clay may be small or only few people were able to use sculpting tools will explains why few sculpting tools have bee found. And there is the possibility that large amount of sculpting tools have not been discovered. 2. Even if the life-size statues were made out by molds, there is no guarantee that the miniature statues was not made out by molds. The evidence that mold can only be used for life-size statue was unfounded for the making of the mold of the first miniature (sculptured by sculptor) can be used to produce other statues. 3. Even though the statues are made by molds, there is no warrantee that they will lose their value. For ancient vestige has greater archaeology value than its technical value. Even a piece of broken pottery will be priceless if it was made for a long time. 057. 不具可比性，没有论据支持论点-药品 The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health. "Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well." 简要翻译： Z 药对于防止溃疡复发有很强的效果，而且如果专家告诉公众，溃疡的首次发作也能被防 止。因为一项对首发溃疡服用 Z 药的病人的研究显示，在医嘱下服 Z 的病人只有 25%复发， 而不服 Z 的则有 75%复发。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. no evidence shows that Zorba prevent first-time ulcers. 2. doctors who intending to direct patients to take Zorba may also recommend other pills to them, which are the actual reason of low rate of recurrent ulcers. 3. general public who have no ulcers should not be informed by health experts unless Zorba has been proved to have no side-effect when taking as ulcer preventor. 2． 1. The study advanced on the newspaper just shows that Zorba is somewhat good for curing ulcers instead of preventing them; 2. Side effects should be taken into account; 3. Preventing first-time ulcers means that Zorba pill should be taken by the people who do not own this disease. Apparently, in the so called situation, they won't take such medicine without ulcers. 059. 并发的现象/行为没有证据证明其相关性，论断太武断-健康 The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper. "According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun." 简要翻译： 容易感冒的人应该避免长时间晒太阳。因为根据已有的医疗记录，过去 300 年 6 次世界范 围的流感发生年份太阳斑活动很频繁，既太阳接收比平时更多的太阳能量。 推荐提纲： 1． There is no direct connection between the worst flu epidemics and the sunspot activity. All are one-sided assumption based on mere coincidence. The author ignores other factors causing the flu, such as the basic cause, virus. Since the flu is epidemic, it's not easy to define which people are at particular risk. And "prolonged" exposure is a vague concept. 2． 1. 开头 2. 除了原文所列的时间以外，如果还有其它年份有更强烈的 sunspot，那为什么没有发生 worldwide flu epidemics 呢？ (原文没有特指只有所列的年份才发生 sunspot，而只是说 sunspot 在这些时间发生了，也就意味着还有其它时间也是发生 sunspot 的) 3. 不能把巧合当成必然，这样就会迷信，因为的确从医学的角度来看，flu 和 sunspot 没有 必然的联系。 4. 结尾：应该从医学的角度去把握两者的关系，而不是单纯从统计巧合就得出结论 060. 现象与本质，忽略了其他因素，并不能说明关键因素-养宠物与老年健康 The following appeared in the health section of Glenntown's local newspaper. "Several national medical studies suggest that older people who have pets tend to enjoy better health than those who do not have pets: those who have pets have lower rates of high blood pressure and arthritis. It seems clear that having to care for an animal promotes good health for the older person. Therefore, Glenntown should establish a program to give a small pet such as a dog or cat to all of its citizens who are over the age of 65. This will help to insure that our senior citizens enjoy good health and have fewer medical bills." 简要翻译： 给 65 岁以上的老人宠物，能够使高龄居民有好的身体和少的医药账单。 推荐提纲： 1． The arguer ignores the negative side of raising pet. They can spread disease, or plague, esp. when there are so many of them. To raise pets or not is always a personal behavior and should be decided by the old people themselves. Some old people have other hobbies which are equally salubrious, such as traveling, but they might be contradictory to raising pets. The practice of raising pets might help reduce medical bills, but at the same time would cost the old a lot more for the pets. 2． 1. not every one like pets. An allocated pet might not be able to insure an senior citizen enjoy good health, instead, he/she might feel vexed. 2. pets may also cause breath problem to those who have trouble with their breathing system. 3. the relationship of raising pets and good health might have been reversed. Actually, it is also possible that those who are of good health have got energy to raise pets 061. 未考虑未来发展趋势-教育设施投入 The following appeared in a report by the School District of Eyleria. "Nationally, the average ratio of computers to students in kindergarten through grade 12 (K-12) is 1:5. Educators indicate that this is very good ratio. This means that across the country, all students have access to and can use computers daily in their classrooms. In Eyleria's K-12 schools, the ratio of computers to students is 1:7. This number is sufficient to ensure that all of Eyleria's students, by the time they graduate from high school, will be fully proficient in the use of computer technology. Thus, there is no reason to spend any of the schools' budget on computers or other technology in the next few years." 简要翻译： 未来几年没有理由在电脑或其他科技项目上花费任何开支。因为我们电脑与学生的比例是 1：7，它能保证我们所有的学生在高中毕业前熟练掌握电脑科技的应用。而就全国来说， 平均的比例是 1：5，教育者说这个比例很好，它意味着全国的学生每天都能在教室里用电 脑。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Though the ratio might be big on average, individual differences exist. Therefore to say all students have access to computers is unfounded. a) some schools have more while others have none. b)Kindergartens have less, while higher grades use more. 2.To say all students can use computers daily in their classrooms is more groundless. a) Students might use computers on a rotating scale, computer class is like all the other classes scheduled in the timetable on a week basis, not necessarily a daily basis. B) There is no evidence to show there are computers in all their classrooms, because the computer number is still not large enough to ensure everyone has one. 3.To say that the students in E school will be proficient in computer just because the computer ratio is quite high is hasty. Software and computer knowledge is more important, which should be included in the argument. 4.To say there is no more need to budget on computers or other technology is untenable, because modern technology, esp. computer technology is developing at a fantastic speed, and makes improving the equipments costly, too. 2． 1. The amount of computers fails to convince us that the students will benefit from it. Example, would a nation with abundant nature resource definitely be a developed country? The answer is "NO". 2. Some students don't know the significant use of computer, they may ignore to learn. 3. Even if they start to learn computer, most of the time they may don't know what they should learn and what they should not if there is no good computer teachers to guide them. 4. In the end of the argument, the conclusion "there is no reason to spend any of the schools' budget on computers or other technology " seems absurd. Computer can not be a substitution of any other of technologies. Today's advanced technologies can be hardly described simply by computer, thus it's more important to teach students how to use computer to solve practical problems rather than only tell them how to use computer. Conclusion: Student's cultivation should not be simply regarded as computer technology training. 062. 未把握决定性的因素-硬币 Vs 纸币 The Treasury has once again introduced a dollar coin, the Pine Tree dollar. Neither the Presidential dollar coin, introduced 11 years ago, nor the Eagle dollar coin, introduced 3 years ago, remained in circulation long: people simply preferred spending paper dollars. However, a survey conducted soon after its release indicates that the Pine Tree dollar is far more appealing than other dollar coins: 76 percent of respondents own the coin; 62 percent of those owning multiple coins consider it so attractive that they are still saving rather than spending the most recent coin to come into their possession. Since the Pine Tree coin promises to become the dollar currency of choice, the Treasury is correct to begin saving money by dramatically reducing the costly printing of paper dollars. 简要翻译： 新硬币将进入货币流通，政府为了省钱而大量减少印刷纸币是正确的。因为一项在新硬币 发行后所做的调查显示，新硬币比其他硬币更吸引人，76%被访问者拥有它，而 62%拥有 多种硬币的人表示他们更多的是在存而不是花这种新硬币。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.To own the coin of Tree dollar more doesn't mean they like it more. It's just that the amount of circulation of that coin is too large, and people have no other choice but to accept it. 2.The reason that people save the coin rather than spend it is because to carry the coin around is troublesome, not because they want to possess them. Even if they really think they are attractive, the purpose for a currency is circulation instead of storage. 3.There is no proof that to mint the coin cost less than printing paper dollars. 4.The survey might not be representative with the number and status of the respondents unknown. 2． 1. saving or owning of the Pine Tree dollar may just show people's aesthetic interests in it, or that may because this new introduced dollar coin is not prevailed yet. 2. paper dollars are light and take up smaller space, which is more easy to keep and use in everyday life. 3. paper dollars are cheaper to produce than coins. 064. 有 A 特征的，也有 B，但是有 B 并不一定有 A-教育课程设置 The following appeared in a memo from the Dean of the College of Education at Omni State University. "Only seven of our state's high schools offer even one course in Latin, but over 80 percent of the graduates who study Latin at those seven schools enroll in college. Furthermore, a recent study shows that students who have mastered Latin perform much better in logic and critical thinking. Thus, in order to increase the percentage of our high school students who graduate from college as well as to ensure that they receive a better education in critical thinking, Omni State University should begin an intensive program to prepare our future teachers to teach high school Latin." 简要翻译： 为了提高本地高中生能从大学毕业的概率并保证他们能得到更好的批判思维教育，O 校应 该给会去高中教拉丁文的未来教师开始强大的项目。因为 80%学拉丁文的学生会进大学， 而且一项最近的研究显示掌握拉丁文的学生有更强的逻辑和批判思维能力，而本州只有 7 所高中提供一种拉丁课程。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Lacking comparison. While 80 percent of the graduates who study Latin enroll in college, there might be a higher rate of the enrollment among those who don't. 2.No evidence to show that learning Latin helps increase the percentage of students who graduate FROM COLLEGE, though the enrollment rate is mentioned to be high. 3.Latin is a "dead" language, therefore difficult to learn. There might be other courses which equally train students' logical thinking and consume less time. 2． 1. Students who study Latin at those seven svhools and finally enroll in college are much more diligent than any others. 2. Experience of studying Latin does lettle help to the success of passing college entrance examination because the requirements of colleges are never consisted by only students' Latin ability. 3. "The recent study" didn't provide any convincing evidence that indicates their investigation of students who contribute their logic and critical thinking to Latin study is effective. 4. The arguer ignore the essence of education. We should provide students more pracitice and multiple cultivation instead of concentrate on one subject in order to increase the insignificant percentage. 065. 个体不能代表整体，其他因素的影响-营销策略的调整 The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States. "For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses." 简要翻译： 提高我们所有商店利润的最好办法就是停止储存很多种进口奶酪，而主要集中在国产之士 上，因为这样可以降低存货费用。新开的几家商店里去年卖得最好的五种之士都是从 W 进 的某之士，而且之士世界杂志的一份最新调查显示，对国产之士的偏爱在他的订阅者中上 升。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Since a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses have been supplied for many years, some old customers might be attracted for their usual brand of imported cheese. 2.The magazine reported a trend in general, however there might be regional differences. And people's tastes change all the time. 3.Though the newest store sells well domestic cheese, the other chain stores'situation needs to be studied for comparison. To conclude, it's hasty to discontinue imported cheese. A variety of choices ensure essential competitive power. 2． 1.the favor for the domestic cheese only occur in its newest store, the phenomena cannot be applied to other chain stores. 2.the sell of imported cheeses in the chain stores may remain appreciable and the net profit maybe well outstrip that of the domestic cheeses. 3.accompanied with the increasing preference of the domestic cheeses, the pool of consumers does not mean to shrink but may increase as well, though not as expeditious as the domestic cheese consumers. 067. 比较引论，不具可比性-两地间的比较 The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a newspaper serving the villages of Castorville and Polluxton. "Both the villages of Castorville and Polluxton have experienced sharp declines in the numbers of residents who pay property taxes. To save money and improve service, the two villages recently merged their once separate garbage collection departments into a single department located in Castorville, and the new department has reported few complaints about its service. Last year the library in Polluxton had 20 percent fewer users than during the previous year. It follows that we should now further economize and improve service, as we did with garbage collection, by closing the library in Polluxton and using the library in Castorville to serve both villages." 简要翻译： 我们应该通过关闭 P 的图书馆，使用 C 的为两村服务来进一步节约和提高服务。因为图书 馆使用才比前一年少了 20%。而且两家最近为了省钱并提高服务合并了以前分开的垃圾收 集部门、新部门建在 C，而且它很少遭到服务的投诉。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. workers of the united garbage collection department can go to the two villages to collect garbage, while people have to go to library themselves. Therefore a united library will bring great inconvenience to those in Polluxton 2. united garbage collection department may get the trucks and workforce doubled, while united library can hardly achieve that since the book collection of two library are likely to overlap each other and a merging of the two can not improve the quality of the book collection 3. the conveyence of great amount of books can cost a lot of money 2． 1. garbage collection and library, the two compared in the argument, is two distinct services and has distinct market, so the comparison is in nature unpersuasive. 2. last year's decline of users in P does not necessarily mean a successive decline in the following years. Accordingly, the declines in the potency of the residents to pay property taxes has the probability to rebound or even surpass the original level. 3. considering the shutdown cost of the P library, the aim of economizing and improving service is not promising in the long run. 4. after the shutdown, the readers' divert from PL to CL is doubtable due to the distance of the two villages, and the market maybe taken up by bookstores. 068. 过去不能代表现在和未来，由这些事实并不能得出如此结论-政府财政支持 The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the City of Grandview. "To avoid a budget deficit next year, the City of Grandview must eliminate its funding for the Grandview Symphony. Our citizens are well aware of the fact that while the Grandview Symphony Orchestra was struggling to succeed, our city government promised annual funding to help support its programs. Last year, however, private contributions to the Symphony increased by 200 percent, and attendance at the Symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The Symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Such developments indicate that the Symphony can now succeed without funding from city government and we can eliminate that expense from next year's budget. This action will surely prevent a budget deficit." 简要翻译： 为了防止财政赤字，必须消除对乐园的资助。因为消除对乐团原资助，就能防止财政赤字。 我们居民都很清楚政府每年都为乐团提供资助支持他们的节目。但是现在没有政府的资助 乐团也能成功，因为给乐园的私人捐款增加了 200%，乐团系列演出的上座率也提高了一倍。 乐团同时宣布明年票价要上升。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. growth in private contributions, attendance and ticket prices may support a small friction of all necessary expense of a big symphony 2. these incomes are not stable from year to year 3. increase in ticket price and lost of support of government funding can cause the symphony to lose its audience and to have worse financial problem, which ultimately impair their success. 2． 1.the argument is weakened by its lack of mention the ratio of the government budget in S's deficit. Chances are that, it only comprise only small fraction of the deficit, and cut of it will of no help to avoid the deficit. Perhaps the funding from the government has ensured the S's attendants that the quality of its service is certified and promised. 2.the increase in private contributions and attendance is not persuasive. these may not due to the enhanced quality of Orchestra and services but to some sporadic occurrence. 3.the increase in the ticket is likely to trigger the sharp drop in the attendance for audience nowadays are much more concerned about the ticket price than the plush decoration and well-intended service. 071. 部分不代表整体-工业 Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly. 简要翻译： 炼铜待业的用电会显著降低。因为新的炼铜技术能比用老办法低超过 40%的电量炼同样多 的矿，尤其当矿里铜含量高的时候。 推荐提纲： 1． 这里主要是 1）新方法能不能投入到工业化应用的问题。 2）不可完全比较的问题。 1， 可能地球上 99%的铜矿都是含铜量很低的，所以对含铜量高的矿石的方法不能工业化 应用，也就是说，不能产生效益。 2， 新的方法到底有没有老的方法可靠，高效，如果造成环境恶化，生态平衡紊乱， 就不能投入到工业应用中，自然就不可能大幅度地减少好电量。 3， 第一个方法对低铜矿石特别有效，第二个方法对高铜矿石特别有效，因此，提到 的 40%的电量节省比较说服力不强，因为对比条件不详等 2． 1.new emergence of technology does not mean its immediate application and need further tests. Copper industry may persist to its traditional way to extract copper. 2.arguer fails to mention the electricity use when the ore has low proportion of copper. maybe the electricity efficiency in extracting ores of low quality is the same as the traditional method. furthermore, with the continuous exploration of the copper ores, the proportion of the copper is likely to fall. And the prospect use of electricity is not decrease but may skyrocket. 3.other processes in manufacturing copper, except the extracting of it, may also require considerable amount of electricity. Only one process's decrease cannot contribute to the whole diminish of the use of electricity. 073. 事物发展不是静态的，未考虑其他可能情况和因素-经营方向调整 The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership. "Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them." 简要翻译： 我们应该把经营重点从卖车转移到租车上。长期租车的人稳步上升。因为过去五年里，本 国每年新租车的人已超过买新车的人。目前本国车子平均年龄是 6 年，这样如果今年租新 车的数目仍超过买车的，很可能大部分的车主是租车而不是自己的车。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.the trend of leasing cars is unpredictable in future despite of its steadily increase during the past years. Such trend may reverse if the limitations of leasing cars were found in future. 2.the total number of people buying cars can be remain considerable and the market of selling car is still profitable. Dropping it will cause the interest of the business to diminish. 3.statistics lack to substantiate its supposition of majority of drivers will be driving leased car. 2． 1. selling new cars are more profitble than merely leasing them. The profit gained by selling a new car sometimes decuple,or even more than,that by leasing a new car for a long time. 2.people who newly come to drive tends to lease cars for months, however,once got familiar with driving they are more willing to own each a new car. thus the number of people leasing new cars surpassed the number buying new cars does not come to the conclusion people are more likely to lease new cars. 3.other factor: 1. are there competitors in the business of leasing new cars? 2..Is there any tendency indicates the increasing of local ecnomy?(eg. a new trade center will be set up in next year) 074. 论断没有充分的依据，仅凭主观的推断的结论是不能让人信服的-教育 The following appeared in a newsletter about education policy. "The average annual earnings of high school dropouts are significantly less than the average annual earnings of high school graduates. To address this problem, the state governor has proposed that the state should establish free vocational training programs for high school dropouts. But the availability of such programs would probably encourage some students who would otherwise have graduated to drop out in order to pursue vocational training. Hence the proposed programs would lower, not raise, the average earning potential of young people. Therefore, the state should not establish the vocational training programs but should instead focus on improving academic programs in our high schools." 简要翻译： 该州不应该设立职业训练课程，而应该集中把中学的学术课程提高。因为如果设立职业训 练课程有可能会吸引本来要读完高中的人退学参加，这样它就会降低未来年轻人的平均收 入。从高中退学的人平均收入比高中毕业生低，为解决这个问题政府现提议应该为退学者 设立免费的职业培训课程。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.the proposed programs will not necessarily encourage the dropout of high school students. In this point, statistics are lacking. knowledge is much valued today, so if a student can graduate, he will try his best to do so and will not have the idea of dependence on the vocational program because he can virtually earn much money, and better realize his life values with advanced knowledge. 2.Statistics about the annual dropouts are not mentioned. Maybe there's considerable numbers of dropouts, thus vocational programs will be necessary. 3.improving academic programs perhaps not result in the diminish of the dropouts. For there are students who cannot afford the fees even there are school loans. 2． 1. Generally, higher education background benefit the owner's job hunting opportunity. It's nature for the high school graduates to get higher earnings. 2. Free vocational training programs for high school dropouts is a very good way to help the high school dropouts gain working skills and get a better job. 3. The society needs various kinds of workers. Academic research is surely important, but other applied fields are necessary for us. If one don't like academic study, he can choose dropout and work earlier. If he/she can work hard and benefit for the society, he/she is still a useful person, whereas he/she is dropout. 4. As far as some students who would otherwise have graduated to drop out in order to pursue vocational training, they can pursue vocational training and then come back to high school for further study. It's not ambivalent. 076. 有两项同时作用，不能归功于其一 The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine. "A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin." 简要翻译： L 对提高脸部皮肤状况真的有效。因为对一组自愿者为期一个月的试验中发现，大多数志 愿者报告说他们的皮肤看起来和感觉上有很显著的提高。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.it is possible that the proclaim in face improvement is due to the psychological function. People may think their faces are better because they are using Luxess face cream. 2.Volunteers may be chose from a single district. the effect of the Luxess face cream may be conditional. It can be not effective to those who live in weather condition that is different with the volunteers. 3.the report may be not practical, and even may be fraudulent. there may be some masked trade driven by the manufacture's eager of earning money. 2． 1.volunteers are often those who have confidence in their skins and those have not good facial skins are reluctant to participate the study. 2.the people's good condition of facial skin might be due to their frequently washing their faces. 3.the survey are held by Luxess itself which makes its result open to doubt. 080. 没有充分的事实根据，某种行为不能代表全部 The following appeared as an editorial in a health magazine. "Clormium 5 is an odorless, tasteless, and generally harmless industrial by-product that can enter the water supply. A preliminary study has linked cooking with water containing clormium 5 to an increased incidence of allergies and skin rashes. Tests of the drinking water in several areas have revealed the presence of clormium 5. Although it is possible to remove clormium 5 from water, the costs of routine testing and purification are higher than many communities can afford. Therefore, in order to prevent allergies and skin rashes, communities that cannot afford to rid their drinking water of clormium 5 should replace drinking fountains in public buildings, such as schools and libraries, with bottled-water coolers." 简要翻译： 为了防止敏感和皮肤病，不能把 C5 从饮用水里去除的社区应该把公众场所的饮用喷泉换成 某种瓶装水饮料。因为一项研究已初步把用含 C5 的水做饭和敏感皮肤病的上升联系起来， 而对几个地区饮用水的测试也发现存在 C5。C5 是一种无味、无嗅，一般来说无害，可以 进入到供应水的工业副产品。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.fails to clarify whether there are allergies and skin rashes in the communities mentioned above. Chances are that, there are few allergies and skin rashes due to the immunity due to the genetic transmission of those communities' people. 2.preliminary study is not convincing enough to reveal the truth. Advanced research should be made. 3.since it is an industrial by-product, it is possible to control the colrmium 5 in water by lay harsh ban on letting out this by-product. 4.bottled-water coolers maybe more expensive than the removing of C5 from water. 2． The arguer fails to establish causal relationship between the presence of clormuim 5 and the incidence of allergies and skin rashes. 1. The prelminary study linking cooking water containing clormuim 5 to an increased incidence of allergies and skin rashes is not convincing enough. It is possible that the occurence of allergies and skin rashes increases because of the changes of the weather or the climate. Or most of the peole who have the skin problems are youngsters and adolecents, They are prone to the allegies and skin rashes due to their physical characterirstics. There is also other possibilities, such as other material in people't diet contributing to the allergies and skin rashes. Or people have the preference about oily or BBQ food, which stimulat those skin problems. 2.Although tests of the drinking water in several areas have revealed the presence of clormium 5, the arguer does not tell us wheather the increased cases of allergies and skin rashe also happen there. Even if so, we can not generalize it since it only exists in SEVERAL areas . 3.There is no informaiton about the expenditure of using bottled-water coolers. Maybe the first investment for ridding drinking water of clormium 5 is a lot of money, but in a long run, it is cheaper than applying bottled-water coolers. 4.with the replacement of bottled-water coolers, it can not necessarily warrant the prevention of allergies and skin rashes since the bottle-water coolers could cause the same problems or i fact there are other factors cause the skin problems. 082. 未考虑前提的影响 The following appeared in a letter to an editor. "In many countries, wood is the primary fuel used for heating and cooking, but wood smoke can cause respiratory and eye problems, and extensive use of wood causes deforestation, a major environmental problem. In contrast, charcoal, made by partially burning wood in a controlled process, is a fuel that creates less smoke than wood does. Moreover, although charcoal costs slightly more than wood, less charcoal is needed to produce the same amount of heat. Therefore, people who use wood as their primary fuel can, without experiencing economic hardship, switch to charcoal and can thereby improve their health and preserve the environment." 简要翻译： 用木材作基本原料的人可以不多花钱就转为用炭，而且可以提高健康和保护环境。因为木 头烟会引发呼吸和眼病，而且大量使用会导致森林减少这一主要的问题，而炭这种通过在 控制程序部分燃烧木材做成的原料，产生的烟比木少。而且虽然炭的成本比木稍高，但产 生同样的热量炭用的量比木头少。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.since the raw material of charcoal is also wood, deforestation cannot be avoided, thus environment damaged. 2.arguer merely mention the advantages of charcoal than wood, failing to refer its drawbacks. Perhaps the drawbacks are more severe than the respiratory and eye problems. 3.other alternatives can be adopted such as electricity, natural gas, etc. 2． Fallacies in the arguement. 1. Deforestation would also result from the using of Charcoal as a fuel since charcoal have the same original resource from wood. 2. Promoting the use of charcoal also bring some serious enivironment problem as the wood does, including the one to respiration and eye. 3. Less evidence to support that efficiency of heat when burning between charcoal and wood. Actually, efficiency is related to many factors. 4. Judgement on that people would have not economical burden when promoting the use of charcoal , is a hasty generalization. The price of supplying is facing many chanllenges. Location,cost, transpoting system, and so on. 085. 决定性因素-政府选举 The following appeared in the letter to an editor of a Myrian newspaper. "Under Governor Winslow's leadership over the past four years, Myria has enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. Average wage increases this year are higher than they have been at any time since the 1970's, the number of people who report being unemployed has decreased by 10 percent, and construction of new homes is up by one third. In contrast, over the past four years Governor Winslow's opponent, Mr. Homer, has been mayor of a city in which only a small number of new businesses have opened. If Myrians want another four years like the past four years, they should reelect Governor Winslow." 简要翻译： M 市应该再选 W。因为在 W 领导的过去四年里，M 市经历了前所未有的繁荣：平均工资 的上涨比 70 年代以来任何时候都高，报告失业的人数也降了 10%，新建房屋增多了 1/3。 与此相反，过去四年里 W 的竞争对 H 一直是一个只有很少新业务开张的城市市长。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.the prosperity of Myria may be the out come of the efforts made by Winslow's opponent. And the economic and social foundation of at the beginning of the two Governor are different. 2.doesn't mention the first 3 years situation. The comparison provided is unpersuasive, and vague because they lack a definite year for the comparison to base on. It is possible that situation in the first 3 years of Winslow's term is much worse than any year of Homer's. 3.arguer's perspective is confined to the extant gains, without a broader view to their consequence. Perhaps economy is on the verge of deflation. 4.to reelect a Governor, comprehensive achievements should be evaluated, not merely economic ones. 2． 1. fails to establish a causal relationship between the prosperity in M and the Winslow's leadership (expand: a. economy development is a long-term process. It may due to the leadership of the forerunners of Winslow that lead to the prosperity. b. didn't mention the effort Winslow take to improve M's construction.) 2. fails to provide information concerning the development of M in Average wage, unemployment, city construction. 3．Rather the purchasing power than increasing wages is the most convincing evidence to judge the development of a city's economy. 088. 过去不能代表现在 The following appeared in a newsletter about health published in the country of Sauria. "According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts, a diet high in complex carbohydrates, and low in fat is optimal for good health and longevity. Because this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria, one would expect them to have had long and healthy lives. Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the existence of many medical problems among the ancient Saurians, including dental problems, elevated blood pressure, obesity, heart disease, and early mortality. Clearly, the diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems. The high incidence of high blood pressure, obesity, and heart disease in Sauria today even among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong." 简要翻译： 营养专家说高 C 含量和低脂饮食对健康和长寿有利是错的。因为这正是希望长寿和健康的 古 S 人的饮食。但对他们的遗体研究发现，两三千年前的 S 统治阶段存在很多病，包括牙 齿的、高血压、肥胖、心脏病和早死，很清楚，古 S 人的饮食是这些问题的原因。而这些 病在今天食用低脂高 C 的人群中也有高发病率。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.mummies's medical condition provided in the argument is unconvincing for they only represent the ruling classes. 2.people those who tried the nutritional experts' advice may have had other ingestions of high fat food. 3.to keep be healthy, it requires the coordination of many factors as diets, exercise and the like. Obey only one of them cannot ensure one's health. 2． 1.Things are totally diffrent between thousand years ago and nowday, the nutrition structure are changed greatly. We no longer eat what ancients ate long time ago. 2.The dead naturally have the problems as arguer mentioned above, these are common disease cause death and quite often in aged peoples. 3.The high incidence of high blood pressure ,obesity and heart disease might caused by other factors such as pollution and local climate. 089. 荒谬的推论，个别现象不能说明问题，未考虑其他影响-高速公路限速 The following appeared in a newspaper published in the state of Celera. "Speed limits on our state's highways should be eliminated in order to increase our state's prosperity. Because greater speed means more efficient travel, commercial deliveries will be faster, increasing business profits. Elimination of speed limits will also make driving more attractive to motorists, so that more people will use the highways, providing more highway toll revenues for the state. At the same time, safety on our highways will not be affected: daytime speed limits were eliminated last year in the western states of our country, and no significant increase in the number of accidents in these states has been reported." 简要翻译： 为促进我州繁荣，应该取消高速公路的限速。因为高速意味着有效的运动，商业传递会迅 速，会提升商业利润。取消限速同时能使更多的人使用，使用可以为州收入提供更多高速 费。同时高速的安全不会受到影响，我们西部几州的白天限速取消后，这些州报告的车祸 数目并没有显著上升。这是一个非常荒谬的推论。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.The sitatus of wetern states unknown. Is there a small population? What's the road condition there? Have they established some other safety protection organization ? they there might be a false analogy. 2. No daytime speed limits resulted in no significant increase in the number of accidents does not come to a conclusion no all-day speed limits still result in no increase. moreover,"no significant increase" does not mean "no increase",safety are still not ensured. 3.fails to consider the disadvantages. 1. the travecy capacity to allow many cars runs at a high speed at the same time. 2. more efficient travel and faster commercial deliveries do not merely rely on higher speed . It depands on several factors. 2． 1. Eliminating speed limit will not automatically lead to state's prosperity. (a. fails to convince us that Elimination of speed limits will also make driving more attractive to motorists since not all the motorist like driving fast. b. no causal relation between greater speed and efficient travel etc) 2. Elimination of speed limits may cause problem highways' safety. ( a. no accidents reported doesn't mean no accidents b. hasty generalization since there may be much different between western states of the country and other states) 094. 由此及彼-整体不能代表个体，还有其他因素影响 The following appeared in a memo from the president of Bower Builders, a company that constructs new homes. "A nationwide survey reveals that the two most desired home features are a bathroom with a whirlpool tub and a large kitchen. Homes in a nearby development built by our competitor, Domus Construction, have whirlpool tubs and have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the average. To increase our sales and profits, we should include whirlpool tubs and larger kitchens as standard features in all our new homes. Since our recent buyers have voiced no complaints about small yards, we can also increase profits by decreasing the size of our yards." 简要翻译： 应该用涡轮澡桶和大的厨房作新家的标准设计，并减小花园的面积，以提高利润。因为一 份全国性的调查显示，最受欢迎的室内设计是有涡轮澡桶的浴室和大的厨房。我们竞争对 手 D 在开发区附近建的房就有涡轮澡桶，它以高出平均价很多的价格卖的很快。另外我们 最近的买主都对小花园没什么意见。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Recent buyers' situation which is a short-term concept can not present the whole tendancy. Is there depression of encomy? what's the trait of these buyers- are they single? What's the price of such homes- are they cheaper than those have larger yards? No evidence.Moreover,no buyers voiced complaints about small yards does not mean buyers do not really care about that. Some people choose silence. 2. Serving new desired features does not mean abadon the old ones.people might also consider the Yard size as basic features. 3. the status of DC is unknown.what's the quality of their service? Is it a famous company ? What's its business scope ? 2． 1.bathroom and whirlpool tub and a large kitchen are not solely the features buyers want. 2.no complaints nowadays does not representative of future's situation. 3.comparison between two companies is incomplete and unpersuasive. 4.increase in profit need other ingredients as effective propaganda, high quality of house etc. 097. 由此及彼--整体不代表个体，比较引论缺众多因素的考虑 The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK. "A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage." 简要翻译： 为了扩大我们在本地区的观众面，进而提高公司利润，K 也应该修改它的广播安排包括啬 更多的体育报道。因为一份全国性的调查显示，相当多数的男人会愿意看更多的电视体育 节目。在 W 提高体育节目后，它们地区的电视观众几乎翻了一倍。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.comparison between two companies is unpersuasive for the neglect of other differences of the two. Maybe the two companies' viewing area is distinct. 2.cost of new input to broadcast the sports programs may counteract its gain from the increase of audience share. Thus the aim to increase profits cannot be attained. 3.people's favor toward sports may change in near future. 2． 1.the manager fails to consider the same important part of the audience-women, whose demands are essential for decision making. 2.the difference between two stations should be consider before the manager take the same measure adding additional sports programs. 3.the arguer fails to realize the possibility revising its broadcast schedule lead to lose some old viewers. 098. 环境不同，效果不一样，其他影响因素 The following appeared in a memo from the director of a large group of hospitals. "In a laboratory study of liquid antibacterial hand soaps, a concentrated solution of Nadasept killed 40 percent more bacteria than the liquid hand soaps currently used in our hospitals. During a subsequent test of Nadasept at our hospital in Saluda, that hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection than did any of the other hospitals in our group. Therefore, to prevent serious patient infections, we should supply Nadasept at all hand washing stations throughout our hospital system." 简要翻译： 为防止严重的病人感染，我们应该在我们系统内的所有洗手处提供 N。因为在一项对于液 体抗菌洗手液的实验室研究中，N 这种集中溶液比其它我们医院使用的洗手液多杀死了 40%的细菌。后在 S 医院对 N 的测试中，这家医院报告的病人感染安全比其它医院少很多。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.infections are not solely caused by bacteria living on hands. 2.in its evidence and application, fails to mention whether the soap is conducive to the reduction of 'serious' infections. 3.fails to mention whether the infection cases in N hospital are decreased or not. Maybe it remained the same as it was before. 4.single case cannot be applied to other hospitals, neglecting their actual situation. 2． 1. The proper temperature and humility of the lab are contributable to the efficacy the concentrated soap of N. In additon , the function of N may be not stable. The occurence that it killed 40 percent more bacteria than other liquid soaps may be occasional . 2. unfair consumption that the hospital in S and other hospitals are indentical in the aspects of the number of patients, the properities of diseases of patients contract and the hygienic conditions. 3.Given the function of N, we can not prevent serious patient infections only by wishing hands with. There are other media in which bactria can live and some bacteria are very hardy. 099. 由此及彼-环境不同，效果不一样，因为参与作用的因素很多 The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia. "Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it." 简要翻译： 为增加农民收入，我们应该鼓励他们种植这种新种子而不用传统的庄稼。这样粮食高产通 过出口将促进我们的贸易平衡。因为隔壁国家去年用了这种新种子，农民产粮比以前任何 时候都高出 80%。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. The arguer fail to mention that whether or not the profit of farmers increases by using a newly developed variety of seed:1. cost of developing variety of seed unkown.2.the percentage of income from these new seeds in the total production unknown. 2.the quality and productivity of the new method unknown:1. lacks comparation between the quality of the traditional methods and new ones. 2,might cause more time and people using the new method. 3.the county's balance of trade decided by several factors such as economy and population. 2． 1.neglect the different weather patterns, terrains, irrigation and the like of the two countries. 2.lacks comparison of output between traditional crops and the new variety of rice. 3.high yield of rice doesn't necessarily mean the capability to export it. Maybe the amount of rice is far less than the amount to satisfy P people's basic need. 4.high yield of rice and increase of the income does not make sense. 100. 欠全面地考虑，未把握决定性的因素 The following appeared in a memo from the chief operating officer of the Presto Manufacturing Company. "Since orders for our major product increased by over 200 percent last quarter, we should promptly expand production by building a new manufacturing plant in Summit City. Summit City is the ideal location for the new plant because it has low property taxes, extensive blocks of land available for immediate purchase, and a large number of residents who are not currently employed." 简要翻译： 我们应该立即通过在 S 城新建一个制造厂来扩大生产，因为上个季度对于我们主要产品的 订单上升了 200%。S 城是建新厂的理想地点，它有低的税，大量的闲置土地，以及目前正 失业的居民。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. fails to convince us that a new manufacturing plant should be built. (a. the initial orders of major product is not mentioned b. a quarter is a relative short period to draw a conclusion. c. the cost of building a new manufacturing plant.) 2. even if a new plant should be built, the arguer fails to provide evidence that it should be built in S ( the phenomenon the arguer described may just result from a economy depression in that area.) 2． 1. the arguer fails to consider some important factors in the business decision:1.the purchasing power in SC, which determines the major profit of PMC's production (in fact ,with a large number of residents unemployed, there must be a low purchasing rate in SC) ;2 the demand of local market in SC, which determines whether or not the production of PMC will sells well. 2. the status of PMC unknows: 1,"product increased" does not mean the "profit increased" 2. whether or not the company have enough funds unknows:what if PMC is still in debt ? 3. other factors: 1.whether or not the local goverment support PMC's expanding?- PMC might be a heavily polluting factory. 2. whether of not there are powerfull competitors in SC. 101. 有新的因素参与作用，因此与原来的效果并不一定一样，另外，还需要考虑其他关键 的因素 The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that makes breakfast cereals. "In a recent study, subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. By fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, we can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. This new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits and, at the same time, improve the health of our customers." 简要翻译： 新版加强黄豆的 W 能够提高公司利润，并同时促进顾客的健康。因为最近的研究中，每周 最少吃 5 次黄豆的人比其他不吃的人胆固醇低很多。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the arguer fails to consider the cost of the new version of WO, which will greatly affects the profit of the new production . 2.the new version might lost the original taste . 3.there must be a proper proportion of soy protein need for human to be healthy ,blindly increase the proportion might not effect. 2． 1.not note whether those subjects are randomly chose or not. 2.to be healthy is not the same notion as to be of normal cholesterol level. 3.whether people will by the product or not is not mentioned, thus the increase in profits is unwarranted. 4.the lower cholesterol level may not cause by the soy protein. Thus the addictive of soy protein may be not have the function to low the cholesterol level. 108. 背景-反驳-比较-得出结论---工业与环保 The following appeared in a Brenton newspaper. "The Brenton power plant draws water from Scott's River for its cooling system and releases the warmed water back into the river. The town council recommends that the plant install a more efficient cooling system that uses less water, claiming it will be more environmentally sound. However, in Uptown, where the new system is used, a study found that the complex network of pipes in the new system tends to accumulate algae. The build up of algae can be avoided by scrubbing the pipes, which is costly, or by adding an herbicide to the water in the pipes to prevent algae accumulation. But water containing the herbicide cannot be released back into the river and it is known that low water levels can harm river ecosystems accustomed to higher levels. Therefore, Brenton power plant should continue to use the old cooling system exclusively." 简要翻译： B 还应该继续只用旧降温系统。因为虽然新系统用水少，但 U 地的经验说新系统的复杂管 道容易集结水藻。水藻可以从管子上刮掉，但它很费钱，它也可以在水中加入除草剂。但 是有除草剂的水不能放回到河里，而水位降低对于习惯高水位的河流生态系统有害。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.arguer fails to clear why after using of the new system the water level will decrease. 2.the water, containing herbicide, can be disposed by some chemical ways to keep it clean and then released back to the river. Or recycled for many times use after it has cooled down. 3.what does the accumulation of algae mean? Why should the users try to get rid of them? They perhaps not does no harm to the new system, and even may contribute to the cooling efficiency. 2． 其实有一个很明显的错误。就算这个新系统不好用，并不代表其他的新系统也不好，arguer 首先就把选择的范围限定在 Uptown 的新系统上了，注意 arguer 结论是"继续使用老系统 "而不是"不用新系统"。 1.There is no necessary to take the new system used in Uptown as the only choice, there might be other altenative efficient system. 2.The arguer try to mislead us that there are noly two ways to reslove the accumulation of algae, which is unwarranted. 3. false analogy: network of pipes in Uptown is a "complex" system according to the argument, the status of B might be diffrent. besides, the terrain ,velocity of flow in the river and the water usage of B and U might totally different. 4.Whether or not the accumulation of algae will affect the efficiency of the pipes remains unknown. they might bee too tiny and instable to reach large enough to block the pipes. 109. 比较引论-房地产-政府政策 The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Maple City newspaper. "Twenty years ago Pine City established strict laws designed to limit the number of new buildings that could be constructed in the city. Since that time the average housing prices in Pine City have increased considerably. Chestnut City, which is about the same size as Pine City, has over the past twenty years experienced an increase in average housing prices similar to Pine City, but Chestnut City never established any laws that limit new building construction. So it is clear that laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices. So if Maple City were to establish strict laws that limit new building construction, these laws will have no effect on average housing prices." 简要翻译： 如果 M 市要设立严格的限制楼房建设的法规，这些法规不会对平均房价有任何影响。因为 P 城 20 年前设了法规限制新建房屋的数量，该地平均楼价从那时起有了显著提高。而与 P 城规模相当的 C 城，在过去的 20 年里也经历了同 P 城一样的价格提升，但是 C 城没有设 立任何对新建楼的限制法规。所以说，法规对平均楼价没有影响。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.False analogy between PC, DC and MC a.The status of PC unknown: it might be a economic center or something b.The status of DC unknown: it might be a less developed city or something c.The status of MC unknown: PC or DC, which is more similar to MC ? 2.False analogy #2 (between PC and DC) time criterion different: PC 's duration unknown. CC's duration is 20 years. 2． 1. false analogy: (a. P and C are different city. It may be that P is a developed city while C is a developing one so there is no need for C to have the law while it is very necessary for P to do so b. M should made its decision respective to it own situation ) 2. other factors which would also have a impact on the price of the house price 110. 比较引论-有无可比性，是否有必然的因果关系--产品推广 The following appeared in a memo from the Principal of Sherwood Junior High School. "It appears that the lighting in Sherwood High's classrooms, which have large windows but minimal overhead light sources, is impairing student academic performance and teacher morale. Records show that during December and January, the two months with the fewest hours of daylight, attendance rates fall, average daily class participation drops, and grades decline. Teacher resignations are also highest during these months. According to a study of Tundra Vocational School, which experiences entire seasons with little daylight, students' grade point averages increased when Day Glow light bulbs, which mimic sunlight, were installed in classrooms. This study suggests that Sherwood can improve students' academic performance and teachers' morale by using Day Glow light bulbs in winter." 简要翻译： S 在冬天用 DG 灯泡可以提高学生的在校表现和教师的士气。因为看起来 S 教室里的灯影响 了这两者。记录显示在日照最少的 12 月和 1 月，出勤率下降，上课减少，成绩下滑，老师 的辞职也在这样月份里最高。而根据在整个少日照的季节里对 TV 校的研究，当教室里安上 仿日照光的 DG 灯泡时，学生的平均成绩上升。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.it's no necessary to buy DG light bulbs only since there are many alternative choices. 2..the fall of attendance rates, drop of average daily class participation , decline of grades and low teacher morale in December and January might be due to the nearing to winter vacation. 3.The arguer fails to establish the causal relationship between the usage of Day Glow light bulbs and increase of the average grade point in TVS. there might be other factors: a. increase of the quality of teachers there. b. new instruction methods are applied . 2． 1. the arguer fails to provide evidence that the lack of overhead light sources should be responsible for the decrease in academic performance and teacher morale. (a. there may be other reason lead to the fall in attendance rates, drops in average daily class participation, and declination in grades since it is usually the end of the term and of the year. People many be busy engaged in other things b. most teachers who want to quit present career put in their resignation at the end of the term) 2. false analogy. (a.T may not have large windows in there classroom b. there may be other factors lead to the grade increase in T ) 3. the arguer hint the teacher's morale is low. Sherwood should find the real reason of it but not simply construct the Bulbs. 111. 决策解释-是否有必然的因果关系-产品调整 The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Sock, Inc. "A recent study of Dura-Sock wearers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented "Endure" manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. Dura-Sock has always advertised its use of the "Endure" process, but the new study shows that the average Dura-Sock customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three months. Furthermore, Dura-Sock customers surveyed in our largest market, northeastern United States cities, say that they most value Dura-Sock's stylish appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that Dura-Sock can increase its profits by discontinuing its use of the "Endure" manufacturing process." 简要翻译： DS 可以通过减少在加强耐用性方面的制作程序提高利润。因为新的研究显示，一般的 DS 顾客实际上每三个月就会买新的 DS。另外在我们最大的市场东北部城市的调查中，被访的 DS 顾客表示他们最看重 DS 的外观和颜色的多样。而 DS 一直打广告强调它的耐用，可以 用两年。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.The arguer neglect the effect of advertisement and determinant causes for the buyers to choose DS, although the customers most value DS's stylish apperance and availability in many colors, what attract them and made them choose DS are due to advertisement and edurance of DS, since many other company can also provide the same stylish apperance and availability. 2. No evidence shows customers do not care about edurance. a.customers purchases new DS every three months does not mean they have no demand in endurance. b.the customers most value DS's stylish apperance and availability in colors does not mean they do not care about edurance. 3.the survey lacks universality, the market in other places should be considered. status in northeeastern US does not present the whole market demand. 4.discontinuing its use of the "Endure" manufacturing process does automatically follow that profit of DS inc will increase. 2． 1) The argument neglected the effect of the advertisements regarding DS's use of "Endure" process. There should be a large number in the existing customers who buy for seeing the "Endure" process in the advertisements. 2) Buying new socks does not mean to discard old ones. So the study about the refresh frequency could not explain that the customers do not care the "Endure" process. 3) Customers involved in the survey could not represent all the customers. Perhaps there are lots of customers buy DS's socks for the "endure" process. 113. 是否有相关性，有事实数据根据？--产品与健康 The following was published by a consumer protection agency. "Three years ago, So-Low launched a nationwide ad campaign, focusing heavily on sunny regions and distributing free sunglasses there. But although So-Low sunglasses cost less than higher-priced brands, they block a smaller proportion of the Sun's rays, including the type of rays known to damage the eyes even when the person wearing the sunglasses feels no discomfort. A recent study suggests that So-Low sunglasses can actually increase the risk of damage to people's eyes by creating a false sense of security. The study shows a sharp increase in the incidence of vision problems in the sunny regions over the past three years. These findings suggest that anyone concerned about eye damage from the Sun should avoid So-Low brand and instead either pay for higher-priced brands or wear no sunglasses at all." 简要翻译： 关注太阳破坏眼睛问题的人应该避免用 SL 牌太阳镜，而用贵一些的牌子或干脆不用。因为 最近的研究显示 SL 太阳镜实际上会提高眼睛受破坏的程度，通过制造安全感的假象。这份 研究说在太阳光强的地区过去三年里视力问题有急剧提高。而正是三年前，SL 开始了重点 在太阳光强的地区的全国广告攻势，并在太阳光强的地区分发了很多免费眼睛。虽然 SL 比 其它牌子的便宜，但他们挡住的太阳光线比例小，包括那些已知会伤害眼睛的光线，尽管 人们带着太阳镜是没觉得不舒服。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Blocking smaller proportion of the Sun's rays is better than no block at all, thus the conclusion the arguer draws about "should wear no sunglasses at all" is unfounded. 2.Falis to establish the causal relationship between the sharp increase in the incidence of vision problems and the wearing of SL's sunglasses: whether or not the victims are mainly wearing SL's sunglasses remains unknown. 3.Other factors: a.fails to mention the high-end product of the SL's glass: are they also have a poor quality ? b.fails to mention the status of the higher-priced brands , higher price does not equal higher quality. 2． 1. SL's portion in the sunny area is unknown, so why should it be responsible for the increase in the incidence of vision problems? 2. does the higher-priced brands block larger proportion of the sun's ray compared to the SL? 3. wear no sunglasses may cause vision problems. 117. 论据与结论没有相关性-公司政策调整 The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores. "Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores." 简要翻译： 我们应该增加所有 V 店家用办公设备和物资的储存，这将使我们办公用品部成为我们店里 利润最好的。因为 V 店的办公用品部过去一直没有很好的销售业绩，而一份调查中 70%的 被访者报告说他们现在被要求带回家的工作比以前多了。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.People do not necessarily buy the products of V-M only because they can provide such products. there are many altenative choices. 2.The result of the survey lacks credibility since the total number of the respondents unknown and the respondents' occupation unknown: while the technician might take more work home , the cleaner does not need to take work home at all. 3.the demand of the market unknown, blindly increase the stock of office supplies result in overstock in V-M stores. 2. 1.if the region where the trend is prevailing does not in the range of VM's selling capability, such a change is futile to the profit. 2.what work specifically people do at home does not mention. Maybe they only needs printers or fax machines. And such a large increase in all kinds of office-supply items will conversely cause the profit to remain or on a sharp decline. 3.solely increase of stocks of these appliance will not necessarily increase the profit. Quality, diversity, price, convenience and much else should be taken into account. 4.perhaps workers are complaining about such a trend, so the trend will not necessarily keep for a long time. 120. 推理得出结论片面，不一定是推理出的结论，缺少充分的根据-交通安全-政府政策 The following appeared in a health newsletter. "A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets." 简要翻译： 为降低严重的骑车事故，政府应该更集中对人们进行骑车安全教育，而少一些鼓励或要求 他们戴头盔。因为两项研究显示，在戴头盔的人从 35%上升到 80%的同时，由骑车引发的 事故上升了 200%。这个结果表明骑车的人由于觉得戴头盔安全而更冒险。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.The arguer fails to mention that the accidents caused by bicycling are mainly helmets wearers.It's quite possible the majority of the victims are not wearing helmet. 1.The number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased is quite nature since there are increase in population and more bicycling during the ten years. 2.Accidients occus among those who wear helmets are less serious than those who do not since helmet is protective gear. 2. 1.maybe the increase is due to the bad traffics in that city and curtness of the drivers. 2.in its evidence does not mention the increase of accidents is mainly serious ones. On the contrary, there might be less serious accidents than before. 3.completely relying on the educating people would not necessarily gain result. Changes should be both subjective and objective. Such as road improvements. 127. 欠全面地考虑，推理的结果和影响没有根据，结论的前提错误，结论自然站不住脚监督员工 The vice president for human resources at Climpson Industries sent the following recommendation to the company's president. "In an effort to improve our employees' productivity, we should implement electronic monitoring of employees' Internet use from their workstations. Employees who use the Internet from their workstations need to be identified and punished if we are to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities, such as shopping or playing games. By installing software to detect employees' Internet use on company computers, we can prevent employees from wasting time, foster a better work ethic at Climpson, and improve our overall profits." 简要翻译： 在公司的电脑上安装监测员工因特网使用的软件，可以提高我们整体的利润。因为我们可 以防止员工浪费时间，促进好的工作态度。如果想降低员工在工作中花在私事和娱乐活动 上的时间，在工作时间使用因特网的员工就应该被查出来并处罚。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Installed software can detect employees' Internet use on computers does not mean that these software can also identified whether the employees are shoping and playing games or working on the Internet.Moreover, the employees can use proxies sever to gain the access to Internet. 2.The installed software might decrease the efficiency when employees works on Internet. 3.Even installing software can prevent employees from wasting time on personal or recreational activities, It does not follow that the overall profits of CI can be improved. 2. 1.to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities does not ensure of the productivity's improvement. More decisive factors are ignored, such as employee's motivation, morale, skills, bonus, etc. 2.punishment might have negative influence on the employees. No productivity can be achieved under distrust and surveillance. 3.long working hours doesn't not equal more productivity. Efficiency counts more. A more active and encouraging system is suggested to replace the very watchful and punishing one.. 129. 有否必然的相关性？--健康 The following appeared in the Sherwood Times newspaper. "A recent study reported that pet owners have longer, healthier lives on average than do people who own no pets. Specifically, dog owners tend to have a lower incidence of heart disease. In light of these findings, Sherwood Hospital should form a partnership with Sherwood Animal Shelter to institute an 'adopt-a-dog' program. The program would encourage dog ownership for patients recovering from heart disease, which will help reduce medical costs by reducing the number of these patients needing ongoing treatment. In addition, the publicity about the program will encourage more people to adopt pets from the shelter, which will reduce the risk of heart disease in the general population." 简要翻译： 养狗工程能降低医疗费，并降低一般人群患心脏病的几率。因为最近一项研究报告显示， 宠物主人一般寿命更长，身体更健康，尤其是养狗的人患心脏病的数目更小。医院应该与 AS 建立合作收养狗工程。这个工程能在病人中提倡通过养狗来帮助治疗心脏病，这将减少 病人来往治疗的次数从而帮助降低医药费。另外，对这项工程的宣传也将鼓励更多的人从 收养所受养宠物，这将降低一般人群患心脏病的几率。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.lacks reasonable relationship(medical and psychological) between owning a pets and heart attack. 2.arguer only mention, falsely or rightly, that the lower incidence of heart disease of pets owners, not that pets could help patients recovering from heart disease. 3.instead of adopting pets from shelters, people may have the proclivity to buy their own pets. Thus the result that more people will adopt pets from the shelter is unfounded. 4.arguer constricts his perspective merely on the benefits of pets, failing to considering its detrimental influences. 2. 1.Those who favors in raising pet are always in better health conditions since they have extra energy to deal with pets. on the contrary , those have problems in health conditions always firstly worry about themselves thus they are less interesting in own a pet. 2.Not even a little evidence shows raising pets will help patients recovering from heart disease: no theory support, no survey , no statistics. 3 no. 3.The pets from the shelter always have more bacterium and virus due to the poor circumstances. 131. 比较引论-片面考虑-造成现象的原因是多样的，不能单纯的就某方面就是比较-环保 The following appeared in an environmental newsletter published in Tria Island. "The marine sanctuary on Tria Island was established to protect certain marine mammals. Its regulations ban dumping and offshore oil drilling within 20 miles of Tria, but fishing is not banned. Currently many fish populations in Tria's waters are declining, a situation blamed on pollution. In contrast, the marine sanctuary on Omni Island has regulations that ban dumping, offshore oil drilling, and fishing within 10 miles of Omni and Omni reports no significant decline in its fish populations. Clearly, the decline in fish populations in Tria's waters is the result of overfishing, not pollution. Therefore, the best way to restore Tria's fish populations and to protect all of Tria's marine wildlife is to abandon our regulations and adopt those of Omni." 简要翻译： 恢复鱼的数量和保护 T 野生海洋生命的最好办法是放弃我们的规定而采用 O 的。因为 T 地 区很多鱼的数量最近在下降，有人说是污染。但是 O 地区没有报告鱼群有明显下降。我们 禁倒垃圾和近海 20 英里的探油，但不禁捕鱼。而 O 地区不仅禁我们禁的，还禁 10 英里内 的钓鱼。很显然 T 地区的下降是因为过度捕鱼。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.the result that decline of fish is not due to pollution is a fallacy. It lacks practical researches on the effects on fish in these waters. It is possible caused by migrations of fish or other factors. 2.merely fish's case cannot illustrate the situation to all marine wildlife as a whole. 3.it is T's waters within 20 miles of Tria that has the restrictions, not the whole waters. 4.the final result is too hasty, ignoring the practical situations of the two islands. 2. 1.Fails to establish the causal relationship between not banning fishing and decrease in fish populations. a. fishing alone can not decrease fish populations sharply . b. no evidence shows there were many fishers in TI . no ban for fishing does not follow that there will be many fishers fishing in this area. 2. No evidence shows no pollution in TI ,ban dumping and offshore oil drillibng with 20 miles does not mean the water are less polluted. a. the sources of pollution might be beyond 20 miles. b. the air might be polluted thus the soluted air in the water cause the decrease of fishing populations. 3.False anology between TI and OI a. the water conditions might be diffrent b. the species in OI might be more adaptive than TI 133. 逻辑推理错误，事实、数据都是正确的，但并不能得出这样的结论，未把握关键的决 定因素---教育 The following is a memo from the principal of Academia High School. "Academia High School should abolish its after-school performing-arts programs and replace them with computer-technology programs. When nearby Techno High School did so last year, total enrollment in all of its after-school activities remained about the same. Moreover, on entering college, many Techno students chose a major directly related to their after-school activities. On the other hand, last year only 10 percent of Academia's graduating seniors chose performing arts as their major field of study in their first year of college, clearly indicating that most students do not have a strong interest in the performing arts." 简要翻译： A 校应该取消它的课后艺术表演项目，该而换成计算机科技项目。隔壁 T 校去年这么做了， 他们整个课后活动的参加人数保持了。另外进入大学时，很多 T 校学生选择与课后活动直 接有关的专业。 而 A 校去年只有 10%的毕业生选择表演艺术作为他们在大学第一年的专业， 很显然大多数学生对表演艺术没有很强的兴趣。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.10 percent is not necessarily a omissible percentage if taking all the activities into consideration. Maybe it ranks the highest in the activity list. Maybe freshmen, sophomores, juniors have an predominant percentage say 50 percent in performing-arts programs. 2.false comparison of the two schools. Differences such as students' quality and interest, actual situations of the schools should be taken into account. 3.all of the evidence provided cannot substantiate the conclusion to run computer-technology programs. 4.no evidence show that students will choose computer-technology programs after its application. 2. 1. Fewer students choose performing arts as their major field of study does not mean most students do not have a strong interest in the performing arts since they may take the performing arts as their avocation. 2.False anology between AHS and THS, THS might famous for their computer-techonology programs while weak in their arts performing teaching. 3.there still 10 percent of AHS graduating seniors chose performing arts which can not neglect by AHS since the abolishing of art performing program will deprive them of their interest in art performing 134. 以偏概全，缺乏比较-作家，出版 The following was taken from a guide for aspiring writers. "New writers usually cannot convince large, prestigious publishers that their work is marketable, so they must first publish with smaller, less well-known presses to establish a sales record. But the editors of Mystery Writers Magazine have good news for aspiring writers: the number of mystery novels published in the last two years has grown significantly, and more people read mysteries than any other type of novel. In addition, almost half of the mystery novels published last year were written by first-time novel writers. Since there is apparently an expanding market for mystery novels, all publishers will want to increase the number of mystery novels they publish. Therefore, new writers should write mystery novels to increase their chances for first-time publication with a larger, prestigious company." 简要翻译： 新作家应该写神话小说来提高在大出版公司出处女作的机会。因为神话小说过去两年出版 增长很快，看神话小说的人比其他书更多了。另外，去年几乎一半的神话小说是由第一次 出书的人写的。既然神话小说的市场有明显上升，所有的出版社会愿意增加该种小说的出 版。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. more people read mysteries does not mean majority of people read them and thus not a large market for mystery books. 2. maybe the increase of published books is contributed mostly by sophisticated writers. Thus the chance for new writers to publish their books may be still the same as before. 3. although there is actually an increase, but how could the writer deduce that all publishers will want to increase mystery books? Different publishers have different themes of their published books. Maybe there are just a few publishers have the branch to publish mystery books. 4. it is not notified that MWM is a large, prestigious company, but how could arguer apply the situation to the prestigious ones? 5. in spite of the increase of mystery books, new writers could write other forms of publication instead, why should they must tie themselves to the writing of mystery books? 2. 1.Although the number of mystery novels published in the last two years has grown,the trend may not go ahead. 2.Despite expanding market for mystery novels,not all publishers will want to increase the number of mystery novels they publish. 3.The arguer fails to consider the result of imbalance between supply and want caused by exceeding publishing of mystery novels. 4.The possibility that majority of mystery novels were published by minor company is not taken into accounted in the arguement. 135. 论据的不相关性-公司策略调整-媒体 The following is a memorandum from the business manager of WLSS television station. "Over the past year, our late-night news program has devoted increasingly more time to covering national news and less time to covering weather and local news. During the same time period, most of the complaints we received from viewers were concerned with the station's coverage of weather and local news. In addition, several local businesses that used to run advertisements during our late-night news program have just cancelled their advertising contracts with us. Therefore, in order to attract more viewers to our news programs and to avoid losing any further advertising revenues, we should expand the coverage of weather and local news on all our news programs." 简要翻译： 为吸引更多观众并避免广告收入继续流失，我们应该在所有新闻节目中加大对天气和当地 新闻的报道。因为去年我们夜间新闻一直在增加全国新闻的时间，天气和当地新闻的时间 少了。同一时间我们收到的大多观众投诉都是与天气和当地新闻有关的。另外，当地几家 以前在夜间新闻节目有广告的公司刚撤销了与我们的广告合同。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.people are dissatisfied with only late-night news. How could such dissatisfaction be applied to all daytime and all programs? 2.lacks the comparison of revenues between news and weather reports. Maybe the first is much more profitable. 3.do not mention whether the canceling of ad. is due to the broadcast of increasingly more time of late-night news. Maybe there are other crucial factors besides the news. 4.what the complaints of the viewers are? Is it due to the increase coverage of the news or decrease of the news? 2. 1.The percentage of late-night viewers in total viewers are relatively small since less people tends to watch TV late. Therefore they can not presents the main opinion of whole audience. Most viewers might care more about national news than local news and weather report. 2. Other factors causes the compliants of viewers and cancellation of advertising. a. The quality of WLSS TV programs drops b. The quality of WLSS' signal drops. c. There are some new competitors or the exsisting competitors improved their service. 3.expand the coverage of weather and local news does not follow that the more viewers will be attracted . 137. 关键概念混淆-市政 The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper. "At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River." 简要翻译： 政府需要为河边的公共场所的改善增加支出，因为河上娱乐可能会上升。目前居民很少用 河进行娱乐，尽管对他们的调查一直说这是他们最喜欢的娱乐方式。由于一直有关于河水 质量的抱怨，居民必须避开河水。不过这种情况会有改变，负责我们这个区的机构宣布了 河道清理的计划。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the phenomenon that the residents seldom use Mason river for recreation may due to other factors(may be Mason is in cold weather and the river freezes.) 2. weather the announce plan will be effective? 3. even if the recreational use of the river will increase, there is no need for the government to fund for the lands along the mason river. 2. 1.No evidence shows that the recreational use of the river is likely to increase though it can possibly be recovered to the original status. 2.No evidence shows that agency of MC could handle the problem. a. the effiency of the agency unknown. b. It is easy to damage the environment but hard to recover it. 3.No evidence shows that the publicly owned lands need improvements. 139. 逻辑推理有错误-家庭教育与学校教育 The following appeared in the editorial section of an educational publication. "One study at Lee University found that first-semester grades of teenage students who had always attended public, tax-supported schools were slightly lower than the grades of students who had received some home schooling instruction by parents at home, although the grade differences disappeared in the second semester. These results suggest that home schooling is the best way to educate teenage children. Therefore, instead of spending more money on public education, the government should provide financial incentives so that home schooling is an option for more parents. After all, children schooled at home receive more attention, since they are taught by the best possible teacher: a parent who has a high stake in educating them well." 简要翻译： 政府应该提供经费支持，因为家庭教育对更多父母来说并不是必需的。因为一项在 L 大学 的研究发现，参加公共或税收支持的学校的学生第一年的成绩比其他在家有父母指导的孩 子成绩稍差，尽管这种成绩上的差别在第二年会消失。这个结果显示家庭教育是指导孩子 最好的方式。毕竟孩子在家里受教育会受到更多的重视，因为他们可能是由最好的老师指 导，父母是最可能教育好他们的。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Not all parents are good at instructing their children. especially those have low education level. 2.Since the grade differences disappeared in the second semester, It might just a occasionally-happening event. 3.public,tax-supported schools can provide systematic instruction methods and various courses and well-formed atmosphere of study by gathering teenagers toghter while home-instructions can not. 2. 1. the study lacks representative ( a. its sample constraint in Lee university. b. the phenomenon disappeared the second semester. ) 2. fails to establish a causal relationship between the survey and the recommendation. (a. public education includes many aspect, not only the grades. b. not all the parents has the enthusiasm, pertinence and time to taught their children. ) 140. 观点说明型-教育师资 The following appeared in a report of the Committee on Faculty Promotions and Salaries at Elm City University. "During her seventeen years as a professor of botany, Professor Thomas has proved herself to be well worth her annual salary of $50,000. Her classes are among the largest at the university, demonstrating her popularity among students. Moreover, the money she has brought to the university in research grants has exceeded her salary in each of the last two years. Therefore, in consideration of Professor Thomas' demonstrated teaching and research abilities, we recommend that she receive a $10,000 raise and a promotion to Department Chairperson; without such a raise and promotion, we fear that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University for another college." Understanding of the topic: 1. Position: in consideration of Professor Thomas' demonstrated teaching and research abilities, we recommend that she receive a $10,000 raise and a promotion to Department Chairperson; Reasons: 1). During her seventeen years as a professor of botany, Professor Thomas has proved herself to be well worth her annual salary of $50,000. a). Her classes are among the largest at the university, demonstrating her popularity among students. b). the money she has brought to the university in research grants has exceeded her salary in each of the last two years. 2). without such a raise and promotion, we fear that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University for another college. 简要翻译： 我们建议给 T 教授加 1 万元薪水，并升任系主任。不这样做担心 T 教授会去别的学校。而 在该教授 17 年的植物学教授的职业经历中，她已证明她非常值目前的年薪。她的课是学校 最大的，说明她在学生中很受欢迎。另外，她过去两年每年带给学校的研究经费已经超出 了她的薪水。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Professor Thomas is not likely to leave ECU for salary alone since she has so many students and so much respect there. 3.admitted Professor Thomas ' teaching and research abilities, she is probably not suitable for the Department Chairperson since a DC requires a lot of time to handeling the department affairs which will detract Pro Thomas' energy in teaching and researching. 2.Fails to mention the other professors' contribution and Pro Thomas ' assistants, that's not fair. increasing her salary might cause further disatisfaction. 2. 1. fails to convince us that Professor T excellent in teaching and research ablilities. (a. the largest class may be a course required to the students, hence doesn't have any relation with the her popularity. b. The money she brought to school is only in last two years. c. The money she spend in research has not been mentioned.) 2. even if T excel in teaching and researching, it does not follow that she receive a $10,000 raise and a promotion to Department Chairperson ( a. a person who excel in research and teach may not be as so good at management. the thought of that that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University for another college is merely an unwarranted assumption of the arguer.) 141. 问题解决型-工业与环境 The following appeared in a newsletter distributed at a recent political rally. "Over the past year, the Consolidated Copper Company (CCC) has purchased over one million square miles of land in the tropical nation of West Fredonia. Mining copper on this land will inevitably result in pollution and environmental disaster, since West Fredonia is home to several endangered animal species. But such disaster can be prevented if consumers simply refuse to purchase products that are made with CCC's copper until the company abandons its mining plans." 简要翻译： 消费者拒绝买 CCC 的铜制产品，使它放弃采铜计划，就能阻止污染和环境灾害。因为过去 几年 CCC 再 WF 买了上百万平方英里的土地，WF 是很多濒危动物的家，这些铜不可避免 地会造成污染和环境危害。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.for a normal consumer, he/she can not distinguish which copper are from CCC and which are not since CCC only provide the rough material for industry and commercial use. The products after process will marked by other companies. 2.No evidence CCC will cause pollution and enviromental disaster, it might use advanced techonology to mine copper 3.CCC might still gain their profit by seling their copper to other regions and countries which pay less attention to enviroment in West Fredonia. 2. 1. it is unlikely that the consumers can really boycott the products of CCC 2. can the arguer be sure that this newsletter will be read by very consumer? 3. CCC can sell it product overbroad. 4. destructive damage may have been done before CCC abandons its mining plans. 142. 推理型-健康与饮食 The article entitled 'Eating Iron' in last month's issue of Eating for Health reported that a recent study found a correlation between high levels of iron in the diet and an increased risk of heart disease. Further, it is well established that there is a link between large amounts of red meat in the diet and heart disease, and red meat is high in iron. On the basis of the study and the well-established link between red meat and heart disease, we can conclude that the correlation between high iron levels and heart disease, then, is most probably a function of the correlation between red meat and heart disease. 简要翻译： 根据一个研究的成果以及已成立的红肉和心脏病之间的联系，我们认为红肉和心脏病的关 联很可能是含铁量高和心脏病的关联造成的。这篇文章说最近的研究发现，高含铁量的配 餐与升高的心脏病危险有关联，而且饮食中大量的红肉成分与心脏病的联系是已确认的， 泓柔力的铁含量高。(unoxidizable iron, calcium, heroin, rusty iron, compound) 推荐提纲： 1． 1.There might be other elements in red meat cause the heart disease. 2.Did not menton what exactly type of iron causes the heart disease: is the compound of iron or pure iron cause the problem? +3Fe or +2Fe? as we know, unoxidated iron does not do harm to our blood when puncturing our skins while rusty iron can cause lockjaw. thus we can not conclude the iron in red meat will do harm to our health too. 3.No statistics of the survey. 2. A. the correlation between the high levels of iron in the diet and an increased risk of heart diseas is not clear,such like the degree,the authority,etc. B. the same reason to the link between large amounts of red meat in the diet and heart disease; the amount should not be considered equal to the most influence C. other factors should be considered in the affections:the red meat's being high in iron is not equal to the iron elements causes heart disease,other elements may contribute to it. 143. 观点说明型-公司裁员 The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a national newspaper. "Your recent article on corporate downsizing* in the United States is misleading. The article gives the mistaken impression that many competent workers who lost jobs as a result of downsizing face serious economic hardship, often for years, before finding other suitable employment. But this impression is contradicted by a recent report on the United States economy, which found that since 1992 far more jobs have been created than have been eliminated. The report also demonstrates that many of those who lost their jobs have found new employment. Two-thirds of the newly created jobs have been in industries that tend to pay above-average wages, and the vast majority of these jobs are full-time." *Downsizing is the process in which corporations deliberately reduce the number of their employees. 简要翻译： 这种印象，即有能力的工人因为裁员失业后面临严重经济困难，经常几年找不到合适的工 作，是错误的。因为关于美国经济的报道说，从 1992 年以后新设的工作岗位比消失得多很 多。这篇报道还显示很多失去工作的人已经找到了新工作。产业中三分之二的新设岗位比 平均工资高，而且绝大多数使全职的。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.More jobs have been created does not mean more worker formerly lost their job can be reemployed to these jobs. 2."many of those" does not make sense, the arguer should give us the percentage of these workers in the whole. 3.The arguer fails to mention there is also increase in the workers who lost their job. 2. 1. increase in population should be considered, even if there are many jobs created, there are more people looking for jobs. 2. the total population who lose jobs may be excessive, although many people find job after downsizing, there still many left unemployed. 3. the new works which pay high wages and those full-time accessible for those who lose their jobs 144. 现象解释型-教育与捐款 According to a poll of 200 charitable organizations, donations of money to nonprofit groups increased by nearly 25 percent last year, though not all charities gained equally. Religious groups gained the most (30 percent), followed by environmental groups (23 percent), whereas educational institutions experienced only a very small increase in donations (3 percent). This poll indicates that more people are willing and able to give money to charities but that funding for education is not a priority for most people. These differences in donation rates must result from the perception that educational institutions are less in need of donations than are other kinds of institutions. 简要翻译： 捐款上升率的差别是认为教育机构没有其他机构需要捐款的印象的结果。根据对 200 个慈 善机构的调查，对非赢利机构的捐款去年上升了将近 25%，尽管不是所有的机构获得的金 额相等。宗教团体获得最多有 30%，然后是环境有 23%，而教育机构仅有非常少的上升为 3%。这份调查还显示，越来越多的人愿意且能够为慈善捐钱，但是教育不是大多数人的首 选。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.Fails to mention the base funds of these nonprofit groups. the education usually have large base than the others. thus the same donations of money contribute to less percetage of the education. 2.One-year-survey does not make sense.moreover, 200 organizations is too small number for make a judgement since education is national wide issue. 3.Donation from charitable organizations only contribute a small part of whole donations of education. there are many forms of donations: national donation,company donation,individual donation. 2. 1.The base number is unknown, therefore the gained percentage doesn't mean much. 2.While charitable organizations seems to donate more to religious groups, so to speak, as charity is quite an religious deed by nature, educational institutions might gain munificent donations from companies or alumni, and charity donations is not the only source for educational institutions. 3.The situation of a particular year might be quite accidental, which might not reveal the steady tendency on a longer-term basis. 145. 现象描述-健康 A new study collected data that shows that people who snore are more likely to gain weight than are people who do not snore. It is well known that many people who snore also stop breathing frequently during the night for a few seconds, a condition called sleep apnea. The interruption of breathing wakes the person-often so briefly that the waking goes unnoticed-and can leave the person too tired during the day to exercise. Anyone who snores, therefore, should try to eat less than the average person and to exercise more. 简要翻译： 打鼾的人应该试着比一般人少吃点并多运动。因为一项新的研究收集数据显示打鼾的人比 不打鼾的人更容易长胖。大家都知道很多打鼾的人在夜里也会经常有几秒钟的停止呼吸， 这叫睡眠窒息状态。这种呼吸的间断会使人醒来，经常非常短而不被注意到，这会使人在 白天感觉特别累而不愿运动。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. It quite possible those who in weight tend to snore . The arguer treat the cause of a sequence of snore as if it were the result of snore. 2.No evidence shows that people will get too tired for just a briefly waking.Moreover, it is unsound to assume these people are not likely to exercise during the day even they are tired. 3.No evidence shows eat less and exercise more will result in less snore. 4.since the waking caused by apnea goes unnoticed according to the arguer, how can he judge one is waking or sleeping ? 2. 1. Fail to posit an unequivocal causal relationship between snoring and gaining weight. 1) It is well known that people's low sleep quality helps reduce rather than gain them weight. It is mentioned that the frequent snore interruption with their sleep wakes them at night, how can they gain weight then? 2) It might well be the very contrary, that is, it is fat that causes snore, instead of vice versa. The arguer needs to refute this common sense to make his premise sound and convincing enough. 2.Now that those snoring people have fewer sleeping hours and are rather tired, if they were still asked to eat less and exercise more, their healthy might be at stake. 3.The arguer fails to explain why they should eat less and exercise more. 1)Does that help them reduce weight? If so, why should they if they are not verweight at all? 2)What if they exercise more and snore more at night and cause a malicious biological cycle? 147. 现象分析-产品销售 The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine. "Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months." 简要翻译： W 今后几个月的销售可能会急剧上升。因为一份对电视游戏玩家的调查显示，它的销售趋 势会转变。这份调查问玩家们认为游戏的什么特点最重要，他们偏向有生动动画的游戏， 这种游戏需要最新的电脑技术。WW 刚刚用大规模广告向 10-25 岁的人群推出了几种这样 的游戏，这个年纪的人群最可能玩电子游戏。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.WV can provide lifelike games does not follow that players are like to buy theri products since there are many alternate choices. besides, since WV games have declined over past two years. It quite possible that the quality of their games is poor. 2.no evidence shows that 10 to 25 years old players are mainly those care about the lifelike graphics . Moreover, since the lifelike graphics need the most up-to-date computers, 10-25 years old players could not possibly afford that since they are mostly students or something close to . 3.Given the positive answers to above, advertising campain alone can not bring WV 'dramatically' increase in sales. 2. 1.The experiences of the past two years' declining might suggest the W games are not attractive enough therefore might not be so promising in the near future. 2.The number of the subjects are not mentioned, so the survey is unreliable. Even if the players do reveal the general inclination for that type of games, they might not necessarily buy Whirlwind as there are so many competitors in the market.. 3.There is no indication that people aged 10 to 25 are most likely to play video games. 4. Whether the sales are likely to increase so dramatically and so soon, is much more than just one-sided wishful thinking. It obeys the economic operating law only. 149. 方案推销-产品服务推荐 The following is a memorandum from the director of personnel to the president of Get-Away Airlines. "Since our mechanics are responsible for inspecting and maintaining our aircraft, Get-Away Airlines should pay to send them to the Quality-Care Seminar, a two-week seminar on proper maintenance procedures. I recommend this seminar because it is likely to be a wise investment, given that the automobile racing industry recently reported that the performance of its maintenance crews improved markedly after their crews had attended the seminar. These maintenance crews perform many of the same functions as do our mechanics, including refueling and repairing engines. The money we spend on sending our staff to the seminar will inevitably lead to improved maintenance and thus to greater customer satisfaction along with greater profits for our airline." 简要翻译： 花钱送员工参加这个研习班一定会使维修技术提高，从而顾客满意了，利润都会提高。因 为赛车产业最近报告说他们员工的维修技术在参加这个研习班后有显著的提高。这些维修 人员有很多和我们机师起一样的作用，包括加油和维修发动机。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.False analogy: Aircraft inspecting and maintaining is different from that of automobiles. 2.The seminar might be automobile oriented only. 3.Customer satisfaction and profits are caused by many other factors such as the service the speed and the punctuality. 2. A. The arguer has committed a fallacy of "After this, because of ths." That the performance of the maintenance crews of the automobile racing industry has improved markedly may be due to other factors. B. The arguer has committed a fallacy of false analogy. There are many differences between automobile industry and airline industry. C. It is grounlessly to say that sending the maintenance staff to the seminar will surely bring in greator customer satisfaction and profit of the airline company. 150. 现象分析-污染与动物保护 The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine. "The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline." 简要翻译： YNP 地区两栖动物数量的下降不是因为鳟鱼的引入。全球范围两栖动物的数目下降，先是 全球水域和空气的污染。两次关于 YNP 两栖动物的研究支持我们的结论。在 1915 年这里 有 7 种两栖动物，每种数目都很多。但是在 1992 年，这里只看得到四中，每种的数目也都 显著下降。这种下降一直被归结于公园水域引入鳟鱼，而这种引入不能解释全球性的下降。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.The arguer used what need to be proved (worldwide decline) as evidence to prove. 2.No evidence shows that the decline was not caused by introduction of trout in YNP rather than pollution. No evidence shows that there is pollution in YNP too.moreover, there are many other factors can cause the decline such as changing in climate and not sufficient food. 3.Given the facts the decrease was mainly caused by pollution, it does not follow the worldwide decline is caused by pollution. Given the facts worldwide decline is caused by pollution ,it also does not follow that the decrese in YNP is caused by pollution. 2. 1. A false analogy.The decline in Yosemite National Park in California can't be adapted to the world. May be the real reason is the introduction of trout into the park's waters. 2. The reason of the decline in the world wide can't be concluded that it is because of the polution of air and water by the scarcity of the trout. 3. this argument owes three reasons to the decline of the world wide ：trout, pollution of air and water. but as we know they don't be such. there are many reasons for it . 151. 评论-政府领导人 The following is a letter to the editor of the Atticus City newspaper. "Former Mayor Durant owes an apology to the city of Atticus. Both the damage to the River Bridge, which connects Atticus to Hartley, and the traffic problems we have long experienced on the bridge were actually caused 20 years ago by Durant. After all, he is the one who approved the construction of the bridge. If he had approved a wider and better-designed bridge, on which approximately the same amount of public money would have been spent, none of the damage or problems would have occurred. Instead, the River Bridge has deteriorated far more rapidly over the past 20 years than has the much longer Derby Bridge up the river. Even though the winters have been severe in the past several years, this is no excuse for the negligence and wastefulness of Durant." 简要翻译： 前市长应该为 R 桥的破坏和长期以来桥上的交通堵塞问题向市民道歉，因为如果他批准用 差不多的钱建一个更宽设计更好的桥，就不会有破坏和问题发生。现在这个 20 年建的桥比 另一个时间更长的 D 桥损毁的速度快得多。尽管过去几年冬天比较冷，但这也不是疏忽和 浪费的借口。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.The arguers account all evils to MD. in fact: a. River Bridge would probabliy be non-exist if there were no MD. b. The damage to River Bridge was inevitable because of the circumstance and climate. c. MD alone can not reject the project of designing a wider and better bridge. d. MD might find other emergency for spending the money. 2.False anology between River Bridge and Derby Bridge. a.diffrent location. b.diffrent usage: for tourism or for truck transportation ? c.diffrent amount of people and vehicles passing the two bridges 3.Did not even mention when MD resigned from the Mayor. 2. 1.No evidence shows that the approve of the environmentally sensitive projects is wrong. 2.it is ridiculous to rebuke the construction twenty years ago standing a modern position. 3.No evidence shows that a wider and better-designed bridge can be better than and none of the damage or problems would have occurred. 152. 问题解决-环保与旅游 The following is a letter to the head of the tourism bureau on the island of Tria. "Erosion of beach sand along the shores of Tria Island is a serious threat to our island and our tourist industry. In order to stop the erosion, we should charge people for using the beaches. Although this solution may annoy a few tourists in the short term, it will reduce the number of people using the beaches and will raise money for replenishing the sand. Replenishing the sand, as was done to protect buildings on the nearby island of Batia, will help protect buildings along our shores, thereby reducing these buildings' risk of additional damage from severe storms. And since the areas along the shore will be more attractive as a result, the beaches will be preserved and the area's tourist industry will improve over the long term." 简要翻译： 我们应该向使用沙滩的人收费，这样可以降低沙滩的使用而且可为填沙攒钱。填沙可以帮 助保护沙滩边的房子，降低受严重风暴的特别破坏的危险（隔壁 B 岛用填沙保护建筑，这 些都可以防止侵蚀） 。目前，海滩沙的侵蚀严重威胁了岛屿和旅游业，而如果防止侵蚀岸边 地区会因此而更吸引人，海滩也会因此保留，而且从长远来看旅游业也会提高。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. erosion of the beach may not due to tourist. (storms may be responsible for it) 2. charging the people may not prevent people from using the beaches. 3. replenishing the sand does not necessarily protect the buildings (false analogy between B and T. :quality of sand; risk of severe storms) 4. if the shore are more attractive after replenishing, there is likely to be more tourist than before and the beaches is less likely to be well preserved. 2. 1. No evidence shows that the shore will be more attractive to tourists only because the beaches are preserved. The scene, climate and service there are also important. Thus the conclusion the arguer draws about "tourist industry will improve over the long term" is unfounded. 2.Charging people for using the beachers does not prevent sand erosion. There many factors exist. the tourists themself can be one . Moreover, no service in beachers will result in decrease of tourists. 3. The preserved sand can do little help to the buildings in severe storms. 153. 问题解决-电视暴力与青少年犯罪 The following is from an editorial in the Midvale Observer, a local newspaper. "Ever since the 1950's, when television sets began to appear in the average home, the rate of crimes committed by teenagers in the country of Alta has steadily increased. This increase in teenage crime parallels the increase in violence shown on television. According to several national studies, even very young children who watch a great number of television shows featuring violent scenes display more violent behavior within their home environment than do children who do not watch violent shows. Furthermore, in a survey conducted by the Observer, over 90 percent of the respondents were parents who indicated that prime-time television-programs that are shown between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.-should show less violence. Therefore, in order to lower the rate of teenage crime in Alta, television viewers should demand that television programmers reduce the amount of violence shown during prime time." 简要翻译： 为降低 A 的少年犯罪率，电视观众应该要求电视节目减少黄金时段里的暴力内容。因为自 从电视机进入普通家庭以来，少年犯罪率就一直在上升，电视里的暴力内容也在上升。根 据几个国家的研究，甚至很小的孩子看了大量电视上的暴力特定都会在家里表现出比其他 孩子更暴力的行为。而且，根据观察者做的一份调查，90%的被访者是表示黄金时段的电 视节目应该少一些暴力内容的父母。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Display more violent hehavior wihtin their home environment does not follow that they will display more violent behavior outside home. Moreover,displaying violent does not equal committing crime. 2. No evidence shows that the majority of these teenage criminals are used to watch violent shows. 3. This survey lacks universalism, the respondent are exclusive parents and their opinions about TV show time are only between 7p.m. and 9 p.m. 2. 1. Though there is a parallel between the increase in teenage crimes shown on TV and the rate of actual crimes, no evidence suggests that those teenagers commit crimes because they see the programs. 2. Yong children are mimics. They display anything that come to their eyes just for fun. No evidence proves that these children really have the motivation to commit the crimes they display. 3. No evidence has shown that the teenagers are interested in the violent programs; if they really do, they will watch the programs regardless of the time shown. To avoid prime time is no cure. 154. 科学研究-健康 The following appeared in the editorial section of a health and fitness magazine. "In a study of the effects of exercise on longevity, medical researchers tracked 500 middle-aged men over a 20-year period. The subjects represented a variety of occupations in several different parts of the country and responded to an annual survey in which they were asked: How often and how strenuously do you exercise? Of those who responded, the men who reported that they engaged in vigorous outdoor exercise nearly every day lived longer than the men who reported that they exercised mildly only once or twice a week. Given the clear link that this study establishes between longevity and exercise, doctors should not recommend moderate exercise to their patients but should instead encourage vigorous outdoor exercise on a daily basis." 简要翻译： 医生不应该建议病人进行适量活动，而应该鼓励每天强化的室外活动。因为一份对 500 个 不同行业不同地区的中年男子长达 20 年的研究显示，说自己几乎每天都有剧烈室外运动的 人比说自己每周一次或两次中等运动的人活得长。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the study lacks representative a. 500 is a relatively small number to draw a conclusion. b. The frequency of exercise during a year time is not long enough to prove the causal relationship between vigorous outdoor exercise and longevity c. The survey is constrained on middle-aged men. What about the women, child etc ) 2. false analogy. (a.the patient has many different with common people in corporeity b. it is possible that stronger people tend to exercise more frequently and vigorously. Their longevity is due to their healthy condition not the exercise. While patients tend to have a weaker condition in heath.) 2. 1.the intensive of the exercise may not be the crucial point but the frequency that compared in the survey. 2.other practical factors can undermine and enforce the longevity of the subjects. 3.the comparison is somewhat incomplete due to its subjects' various way of living. Different occupations have different effects on longevity. 4.people in the middle-aged does not represent all the people in different age range. 156. 产品推广 The following is taken from an advertisement placed in a weekly business magazine by the Dickens Academy. "We distributed a survey to senior management at International Mega-Publishing, Inc. The result of the survey clearly indicates that many employees were well prepared in business knowledge and computer skills, but lacked interpersonal skills to interact gracefully with customers. International Mega-Publishing decided to improve customer satisfaction by sending their newly hired employees to our one-day seminars. Since taking advantage of our program, International Mega-Publishing has seen a sharp increase in sales, an indication that the number of their disgruntled customers has declined significantly. Your company should hire Dickens and let us turn every employee into an ambassador for your company." 简要翻译： 你们应该雇用我们来是你们的员工成为公司的外加大使。因为自从 IM 公司送新员工来参加 我们一天的培训后，他们的销售上升，关于顾客抱怨的数字也明显下降。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Hasty generalization. a. IMP deals with international affairs. the employees there certainly need interpersonal skills. b. not all company's employees are well prepared in business knowledge and computer skills. 2. Fails to establish the causal connection between the sharp increase in sales in MP and one-day seminars. a. one day is too short time to improve new employees' interpersonal skills. b. new employees can not contribute the great success in MP's sales alone. in fact, they quite possible made litte contirbution to increased sales. c.no evidence shows the declined disgruntled customers are caused by the improvement in employees' interpersonal skills. 2． 1.Not all companies needs interpersonal skills so much as IMP does, as the latter is dealing with international business. 2.No solid casual relationship is built. It's not convincing that sending newly hired employees to a one-day seminar causes directly the sharp increase in sales for the entirely company. In other words, those limited number of newly hired might in the company have contributed very little to the sales promotions after all. 3.There might be other causes for the decreasing number of their disgruntled customers, such as the improvement of the products or of the after-sale service. 157. 方案推荐-城市建设 The following is a letter to the editor of a local newspaper. "As a local merchant, I wish to support the development of a ski resort in the state park north of our township. Along with many other merchants who favor the proposal by Ski the Slopes, Incorporated, I would, of course, experience a growth in my business. But I also know how much more prosperous, not to mention lively and interesting, our community would be if tourism increased. Since the main opposition comes from a few environmentalists* who do not even live in this community, I see no reason to give in to their views. The First National Bank has finally researched the project and agreed to fund it. As a result, I see no reason to delay development of the resort." *Environmentalists are people who advocate the preservation of the natural environment. 简要翻译： 没有理由推迟建设度假村。旅游业上升的话我们的社区会非常繁荣，而且它很有趣。第一 国家银行也最后调查了这个计划并同意给资金。由于主要的反对意见来自几个甚至不住在 这个社区的环境保护主义者，我觉得没有理由采纳他们的意见。 推荐提纲： 1． 1 fails to provide any evidence that the community would be more prosperous if tourism increased. 2. the opposition of the environmentalists should not be ignored. 3. the argument is flawed in that the argument treats evidence a factor is necessary to bring about an event as if the factor is sufficient to bring about that event. (the National Bank) 2． 1.the FNB's researches may be only focused on its profitability while overlooking other aspects. 2.failing to consider its negative consequences which will undermine the prosperity and environment. 3.not live in this community does not mean the ignorance of the situation of the environment. 159. 比较引论-生活用电 The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity. 简要翻译： C 的居民应该同时使用空调和电扇来省电费。因为最近对该国家庭电费的调查发现，仅用 电扇降温的家庭比仅用空调降温的家庭电费更高，但是两个都用的家庭花得比它们都少。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.electricity consuming devices are not solely air conditioners and fans. Other facilities as TV, lights or the else are also responsible for the overall consumption of electricity. 2.lack reasonable relationship between the use of fans and air conditioners and electricity cost. 3.the rising cost of electricity may as well caused by the price of electricity. 2． It's a hasty generalization from the study. 1. Not all families have both two apparatus; 2. Consider the wide geographic differences, place, in high altitude, is often cooler than in low, thus houses there needn't apparatus to cool room at all; 3. Maybe other element is the key reason of increasing costs of electricity, such as the high cost of water pump, which would transport clean water from low to high, since the nation covers a vast physical area. 4. The study would be in doubt, because much information important isn't mentioned here, such as time of using two apparatus, how about the power of two. 160. 研究发现-记忆力 As people grow older, an enzyme known as PEP increasingly breaks down the neuropeptide chemicals involved in learning and memory. But now, researchers have found compounds that prevent PEP from breaking neuropeptides apart. In tests, these compounds almost completely restored lost memory in rats. The use of these compounds should be extended to students who have poor memory and difficulty in concentrating-and therefore serious problems in school performance. Science finally has a solution for problems neither parents nor teachers could solve. 简要翻译： 这个混合物的应用应该扩大到记忆不好、不容易集中精力的学生身上。因为最近研究者们 发现这个混合物可以防止 PEP 分解某种神经。在试验中，这些混合物几乎使兔子恢复了所 有记忆。 （PEP 是一种酶，随着人变老它会逐渐分解某种和学习、记忆有关的神经。） 推荐提纲： 1． 1. PEP may only breaks neuropetide in older people it may not be efficient to students. 2. how can people doing the test know what is on the rat's memory? 3. false analogy between rats and students. 4. no evidence showed us that the compounds will have effect on the problem of being difficulty to concentrate. 5. serious problems in school performance include many aspect. 2． 1.memory mechanisms of rat and human may distinct. How could the result feasible in rats be applied indiscriminately to human beings? 2.no evidence show that the poor memory of students is caused by increasingly break down of neropeptide. It is a probable result of sloth. 3.obliviousness to the side-effect of the compounds. 4.who has demonstrated that those students' problems could not be solved by parents or teachers? 161. 比较引论-阅读 In a study of reading habits of Leeville citizens conducted by the University of Leeville, most respondents said they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a follow-up study conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Leeville was the mystery novel. Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits. Understanding of the topic: 简要翻译： 居民不是最爱看古典文学。一项由 L 校进行的该地区居民阅读习惯研究中，大多数被访者 说他们最爱看古典文学。但是他们随后进行的研究又发现该地区每个公共图书馆里最常被 借的是神话小说。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the respondents may be different from the book borrower in the libaries. 2. there may be other reason lead to the high frequency checking out in mystery novels (a. it may be that mystery novel can be read more quickly and hence are more frequently checked out and returned. b. people may tend to buy literary classics while only borrow the mystery novels ) 2． 1.no evidence show the availability of literary classics is abundant. 2.public libraries are not the only provenance of books. Readers could borrow books from private libraries or buy books from bookstores. 3.the subjects in the first survey perhaps was not randomly chose. And thus lack generalization. 4.frequency of the borrowings does not represent the reading penchant of the readers. They may borrow those books for fun and just scan them. But they read literary classics for much longer time than mystery books. 163. 观点说明型-社区建筑 The following is taken from the editorial section of the local newspaper in Rockingham. "In order to save a considerable amount of money, Rockingham's century-old town hall should be torn down and replaced by the larger and more energy-efficient building that some citizens have proposed. The old town hall is too small to comfortably accommodate the number of people who are employed by the town. In addition, it is very costly to heat the old hall in winter and cool it in summer. The new, larger building would be more energy efficient, costing less per square foot to heat and cool than the old hall. Furthermore, it would be possible to rent out some of the space in the new building, thereby generating income for the town of Rockingham." 简要翻译： 为了省钱，R 地该把老大堂推翻建一个更大更有效率的新大堂。因为老的太小无法使其雇 用的人舒服的工作。另外它冬天供暖和夏天降温的费用太高。新的每平方尺供热降温的花 销要比老的少，另外还可能把楼里的一些地方租出去，为 R 创收。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.razing of the old town hall may conversely decrease the overall income of the R. it will possibly curtail the tourists visiting R annually. 2.the low efficiency of the heating and cooling process in the town hall may be caused by the poor devices dedicated to heating and cooling. To increase the efficiency, high quality of heating and cooling facilities may be applicable. In such a case, the motive for pulling down the old town hall is not substantiated. 3.the cost of setting up a new town hall may far surpass the cost saved in heating and cooling processes. Thus it will contrarily increase the overall disbursement of the town. 4. as the new hall is larger, it may cost more than the old one in being cooled or heated even the expense of heating and cooling per square is lower. 2． 1.The larger building costs huge amount of money in construction and heating and maintenance, etc. Though the larger building might be energy-efficient, the area is large and costs much more on the whole to heat or cool.. 2.There is no evidence that some of the space in the new building is easy to let. And generating income for the town is unfounded. 3.The century-old town might have historical value, and may stand a good reason to remain there. 165. 食品与健康 The following appeared in a business magazine. "As a result of numerous consumer complaints of dizziness and nausea, Promofoods requested that eight million cans of tuna be returned for testing last year. Promofoods concluded that the cans did not, after all, contain chemicals that posed a health risk. This conclusion is based on the fact that the chemists from Promofoods tested samples of the recalled cans and found that, of the eight chemicals most commonly blamed for causing symptoms of dizziness and nausea, five were not found in any of the tested cans. The chemists did find that the three remaining suspected chemicals are naturally found in all other kinds of canned foods." 简要翻译： 金枪鱼罐头不含危害健康的化学成分。P 的结论基础是化学家对收回的罐头样品的测试发现 8 中最常造成两种病症的化学成分中有 5 种这些罐头里根本没有，而被发现另外三种仍有怀 疑的化学成分在所有的罐头食物里都有。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.other kinds of chemicals may also contribute to such symptoms. 2.though common in all canned foods, the amount of the three chemicals in P maybe much higher than any other kind. 3.further, what consumers ingest is not cans but the food contained in it. The test fail to have a thorough examination about the content of the cans. 2． 1.It is deserved to be doubted for the conclusion is drawn by chemists from Promofoods who may hide the real result of the test. 2.The chemists just tested the sample of the recalled cans and it is possible that the sample is not representive. 3.There is no detail about the sample. For example how the chemists choose the sample and what is the rule of choice. So the result of the test lacks of crediblility. 4.It is possible that the cans of Promofoods contain other chemicals that can lead to be dizzy and nausea which have not been found by now. 166. 比较引论-药品 The following appeared in a local newspaper. "People should not be misled by the advertising competition between Coldex and Cold-Away, both popular over-the-counter cold medications that anyone can purchase without a doctor's prescription. Each brand is accusing the other of causing some well-known, unwanted side effect: Coldex is known to contribute to existing high blood pressure and Cold-Away is known to cause drowsiness. But the choice should be clear for most health-conscious people: Cold-Away has been on the market for much longer and is used by more hospitals than is Coldex. Clearly, Cold-Away is more effective." 简要翻译： CA 更有效。因为 CA 推出的时间长，并被更多医院使用。无论 CA 还是 C 都会引起副作用， CA 引起瞌睡，C 引起高血压。大家都不应该被两家的广告竞争所误导。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.absurdly justify CA's effectiveness by its time of application. Chances are that, before C's production, CA is best medicine thus was used much widespread than other kinds. However, C virtually excels CA in all aspects. 2.business promotion also contributes to the difference in the use of the two drugs. 3.maybe C is more expensive than CA, which also prevent its application. 2． 1. the aruger based his assumption on "longer the better" "the more the better" which is totally unfair. a: the Coldex might be founded latter than Cold-away, it is natural its products has been on the market for less longer than Cold-Away. b. usedy by more hospitals does not ensure anything (1) the hospitals might have made agreement with Cold-Away for business reasons (2) Cold-Away is more productivity than coldex so that its products being used by more hospitals. 2.since CA and Cl are both popular over-the-counter cold medications that anyone can purchase without a doctor's prescription,the status of hospitals usage of these two medicines can not be a convincing evidence. 3.No evidence comes from patients who is the determinative factors in making a judgement. 167. 研究发现，比较引论-健康 A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia. *A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology. 简要翻译： 薰衣草对治疗失眠有效。因为在最近的研究中，30 位有失眠症的志愿者在三个星期里睡在 有薰衣草药片的房里。第一个星期，志愿者继续服用普通的失眠药，他们睡得很香但是醒 来会觉得累。第二个星期，志愿者停药，结构他们睡得不那么香感觉更累。到第三个星期， 志愿者睡的比前两个星期都要香要长。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.in the third week, what about the feeling after subjects' wake up? More tired or easy? 2.insomnia does not only comprise of chronic insomnia. 3.what about its side-effects in the long run? Fail to mention. 4.what does a short period of time specify? One day, one week or one month? 2． A. The samples about the 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia are not representative and therefore it does not lend strong support to the conclusion. B. The arguer fails to establish a convincing causal relationship between the lavender medication and the cure of insomnia. 1.The reason that they slept soundly but wakened feeling tired in the first week is unknown. 2.Whether the discontinuer of the medication caused the volunteers to sleep less soundly and feel even more tired in the second week is unclearly. 3.Nothing can be known from the argument that why the volunteers slept longer and more soundly in the third week. 168. 研究发现-健康 Typically, as people age, their bone mass decreases, making them more vulnerable to bone fractures. A recent study concludes that the most effective way to reduce the risk of fractures in later life is to take twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily. The three-year study followed a group of French women in their eighties who were nursing-home residents. The women were given daily supplements of twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium. In addition, the women participated in a light weightlifting program. After three years, these women showed a much lower rate of hip fractures than is average for their age. 简要翻译： 降低骨折的最有效途径是以后每天吃两次推荐数量的 VD 和钙。一向对一组看家的 80 岁法 国女人为期三年的研究发现，这些女人每天吃两次推荐量的 VD 和钙营养品。另外，他们 还参加一个轻度的增肥计划。三年后，这些女人表现出比她们年纪平均要低得多的屁股骨 折率。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. maybe it is the weightlifting program that works in preventing fracture. 2. lower rate of merely hip fractures does not assure such remedy's effectiveness. They may have more proclivities to have fractures in knee, hands, arms or other parts of the body. 3. health conditions of the subjects may be initially better than the average masses. And only French women do not representative of the women as a whole. There are differences between men, and women and among different human races. 4. the research should be comprehensive, taking into account both its positive and negative effects. 2． 1. the samples are limited :age,female,nationality. 2. the results of study shows that it maybe work to hip fracture ,but the arguer claims/assumes it is feasible for all kinds of bone fractures.He or she conducts false generalization.all this undermines the validity of the study. 3. It is effective to improve the condition to some extent,but no evidence is given to ensure that it is the most effective way.Maybe other factors are more important. 169. 针对情况采用措施-老师 The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the president of Pierce University. "Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers." 简要翻译： 为吸引最有才能的老师和研究者来我们学校并提高整体员工的士气，我们应该给每位新员 工的配偶提供工作机会。因为如果配偶有工作的机会，新教授会更愿意来我们这儿。尽管 不可能所有职位都会被接受或是理想的选择，花在这上面的钱也会很值。一个也在小城市 的 B 校的研究发现，当他们的配偶也在同一个地区工作，男女教授都会更快乐的生活在上 镇上。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.presumptuous analogy between B college and P university. 2.a happy life is not only comprised of merely accompaniment of one's spouse. Other factors as remuneration, health insurance, chances of promoting or gaining personal fame in his own field, and much else. 3.there's no evidence shows that BC's employment offers to faculty's spouses are not ideal jobs. 4.if the assumption of the argument is true, it will, at most, attract more faculty members, but not necessarily the most gifted ones. 2． 1.Working in the same geographic area may is not the only reason why both male and female professors are happier living in small towns. The arguer dosen't mention the enviroment or living conditions or working circumstances of the two universities, BC&PU, which can influence the happiness of professors. Maybe these differentiate each other and will cause completely distinct consequences. 2,one of the arguer's purposes is to improve the morale of entire stall, but he hasn't interpret at all why the morale of entire staff will be improved if they can attract more gifted teachers and researchers. 3. If their spouses are not interested in these jobs that the universtiy offered, while the university can't offer the jobs that their spouses are interested, how can they handle this situation? 4, If most of the spouses of the gifted schorlars have already had jobs in this area, the employment can't work as a factor attracting teachers and researchers.So the money that has been spent on such a project will be waste. 170. 描述-分析-食品与健康 For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow. 简要翻译： 公众知道杀死细菌的办法，GC 地区的牡蛎生产者就会有更高的利润。因为顾客会觉得安全 而愿意付与东北牡蛎一样的价格购买 GC 的牡蛎。过去五年加州的消费者愿意付与 GC 高 一倍的钱去买东北牡蛎，这个趋势是从 GC 牡蛎里发现有害细菌开始的。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.perhaps the savor of the C oysters is more tasteful than GC oysters. The discovery of harmful bacteria may just serve as a catalyst to this trend. 2.increase in selling of the GC oysters does not merely require its safety; salesmen's promotion, ways of maintaining freshness, should be taken into account. 3.an increase in selling does not necessarily follows a corresponding increase in profits. 2． 1. the reputation is easy to destroy but hard to regain, though scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria, consumers are still afraid that problem. It need a long time to conciliate their fear. 2. no evidence shows people are likely to buy GC oysters even they have no bacteria any more, the quality and taste of GC oysters remain unknown. 3.even there is such thing about bacteria never happened, the former status of GC remains unknown, how can arguer come to the conclusion GC will gain greater profits ? People might already dislike GC before the "bacteria affair" 4.there is even no evidence shows that the bacteria is efficiently killed. 172. 推销广告词-学校招生 The Mozart School of Music should obviously be the first choice of any music student aware of its reputation. First of all, the Mozart School stresses intensive practice and training, so that students typically begin their training at a very young age. Second, the school has ample facilities and up-to-date professional equipment, and its faculty includes some of the most distinguished music teachers in the world. Finally, many Mozart graduates have gone on to be the best known and most highly paid musicians in the nation. 简要翻译： M 校应该显然是任何知道它声誉的音乐学生的首选。因为，第一：M 校对练习和培训非常 重视，所以一般学生在非常小的时候就开始训练。第二：学校有大量最先进的教学设备， 而且它很多教师都是世界上最好的。第三：很多 M 的毕业生是全国最知名且大多数收入非 常高的音乐家。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.a highly paid musicians does not mean a highly venerated musician. 2.to enjoy a good reputation, it of course requires musician's sophisticated mastery in music. But whether or not the intensive practice and training as well as the early commencement of their training serve the purpose is in doubt. Further, distinguished teachers may not teach lessons. And their presence contributes none to students' mastery in music. Finally, up-to-date professional equipment also cannot assure students' proficiency in music. 2． 1.The cost of studying in MSM might much higher than a normal individual can afford. 2.intensive practice and training at a very young age are not always practical: a. young ager might loses their ceation and imagination due to the intensive practice and training and such ability is most essential to a musician. b. intensive practice and training educe the students' antipathy in learning. 3.No status about other music schools made it unable to draw a objective and convincing conclusion. 173. 现象分析，得出结论/提出方案-市场定位/杂志内容调整 The following is a memorandum issued by the publisher of a newsmagazine, Newsbeat, in the country of Dinn. "Our poorest-selling magazine issues over the past three years were those that featured international news stories on their front covers. Over the same period, competing news-magazines have significantly decreased the number of cover stories that they devote to international news. Moreover, the cost of maintaining our foreign bureaus to report on international news is increasing. Therefore, we should decrease our emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying such stories on our magazine covers." 简要翻译： 我们应该减少对国际新闻的重视，并控制这样的文章出现在杂志封面。因为过去三年我们 卖的最不好的杂志是重点且封面报道是国际新闻的。同时，竞争对手已大量削减对国际新 闻报道的数目。另外，我们维持驻外站的费用也在升高。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. No evidence shows that people did not like the international issues . The poorest-selling of international magazine might due to the poorest-skilled covers design. considerating this, Newsbeat should put more emphasis on the cover design rather than refrain from displaying these stories. 2. Whether the profit made by competing news-magazines increased or decreased remains unkonwn. They might lose lots of customers and gain less profit in doing so. 2． 1. Although cover story is an important furture of a magazine, the contents of the whole magazine is more related to the sale of the magazine. The argument does not offer a comparison of the contents between the magazines. 2. The competing news-magzines may have also taken other measures to improve sales of their magazines. 3. Foreign bureaus not only contribute to the cover story, they also provide instant reports of the importent events ocurring allover the world, which are included inside the magazine and draw much attention of the readers. 4. Replacing international news stories on their covers with other stories may not necessarily decrease the cost. 174. 提出建议/proposal，给出理由-教育，女校与男女混读学校 The following recommendation was made by the president and administrative staff of Grove College, a private institution, to the college's governing committee. "We recommend that Grove College preserve its century-old tradition of all-female education rather than admit men into its programs. It is true that a majority of faculty members voted in favor of coeducation, arguing that it would encourage more students to apply to Grove. But eighty percent of the students responding to a survey conducted by the student government wanted the school to remain all female, and over half of the alumni who answered a separate survey also opposed coeducation. Keeping the college all-female, therefore, will improve morale among students and convince alumni to keep supporting the college financially." 简要翻译： 维持全女生，会提高学生的士气并让校友继续支持学校的财政。因为学生会做的调查中 80% 的被访者希望学校维持全女性教育，一半以上的校友在另一个调查中也反对联合教育。尽 管大多数的教师投票赞同联合教育，认为这样可以使更多的学生申请我们的学校。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. what is the whole number of the students responding to the survey? Fails to mention 2. fails to provide evidence that keeping the college all female keep supporting from the alumni. ( a. the separate survey is insufficient for the number of the overall alumni being asked is unknown and whether they can represent most of the alumni's attitude is unknown. b. Even if the survey is representative it does not follow that the alumni will stop supporting the college if coeducation goes on. ) 3. fails to establish a causal relation between the recommendation and the improvement of the morale of students. 2． 1. perspectives of students and alumni lose the all-encompassing virtue. 2. no evidence shows the relationship between coeducation and morale of students as well as financial supports from alumni. 3. it is possible the survey is biased due to the conductor's standpoint, rejecting coeducation. And as a result, the statistics may even be forged. 175. -观点说明型-教育/课程选择 The following appeared in a letter to the school board in the town of Centerville. "All students should be required to take the driver's education course at Centerville High School. In the past two years several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers. Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some other instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers. Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction. Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem." Position: All students should be required to take the driver's education course at Centerville High School. Reasons: 1). In the past two years several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers. 2). Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some other instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers. 3). Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction. Conclusion: Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem." 简要翻译： 所有的学生必须参加 C 校的驾驶课程。因为由高中资助的有效且必须参加的驾驶教育课程 是唯一解决这个严重的少年驾驶问题的办法。过去两年里 C 及其周围有几起与少年司机相 关的事故。由于很多父母都抱怨他们太忙，没时间较孩子开车，所以需要有其他方式保证 这些孩子是合格的驾驶员。虽然 C 有两所驾校，但穷家庭供不起他们的孩子上驾驶课。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.the arguer fails to convince us it is necessary that instruction are in need in order to ensure teenager are safe drivers a.the accidents occurred in the past two years may be a happenchance. b.the number of the parents who complained remains unknown. 2. fails to convince us that C is suitable and qualified to this program. a. how many parents are on a tight budget? b.high school may not be qualified to give drive's license? 2． 1. whether or not those accidents evoking teenagers are living in C is unconvinced. Thus a program of CHS will have no effect on these outlandish teenagers. 2. perhaps only a tiny portion of parents cannot afford to pay for driving instruction in the driving schools. 3. accidents involved teenage drivers does not mean they are responsible for evoking these accidents. Chances are, these accidents are mainly caused by drunk or careless drivers. 4. no evidence show the accidents problem is a serious one. 176. --决策说明型-公司方案/新产品 The following is a memorandum from the sales director to the president of the Healthy-and-Good food company. "A recent study indicates that Venadial, a new margarine currently produced only in the country of Alta, actually reduces cholesterol levels. Derived from the resin of pine trees, Venadial works by activating a metabolic response that is not yet well understood. However, cholesterol levels fell ten to fifteen percent among participants in the study who consumed Venadial daily, and the risk of heart attack by one-third. In addition, the new margarine is so popular that stores in Alta are unable to keep it on their shelves. Therefore, if our company obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, our profits are sure to increase substantially within a very short time." Understanding of the topic: Position: if our company obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, our profits are sure to increase substantially within a very short time. Supporting Evidences: 1). A recent study indicates that Venadial, a new margarine currently produced only in the country of Alta, actually reduces cholesterol levels. Derived from the resin of pine trees, Venadial works by activating a metabolic response that is not yet well understood. 2). cholesterol levels fell ten to fifteen percent among participants in the study who consumed Venadial daily, and the risk of heart attack by one-third. 3). the new margarine is so popular that stores in Alta are unable to keep it on their shelves. 简要翻译： 如果我们公司获得销售 V 的国际专营权，我们的利润一定会在很短时间内有显著增长。因 为 V 能降低胆固醇，而且这个新产品非常受欢迎，以至 V 的产地 A 的商店跟不上供应。一 份研究显示 V，从松树上炼取树脂，可以促进新陈代谢的某种反应，目前还不是很清楚。 但在研究中，每天吃 V 的人胆固醇含量下降了 10%到 15%，且心脏病危险少了三分之一以 上。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Alta's selling situation cannot be applied to worldwide. Many differences should be taken into account. Perhaps in other areas, people's cholesterol levels and possibility of heart attacks is so low that it is unnecessary for their adoption of this margarine. 2. blind to its side-effects. 3. a large selling amount does not promise increased profits. Costs of its raw materials, processing procedures, promotion should be evaluated comprehensively. 2． 1.Since Venadial are derived from the resin of pine trees, there are many other methods to produce the similiar margarine. thus the exclusive right to sell Venadial might not works well since other company can made the similiar margarine . 2.whether or not there are drawbacks in consuming V remains unknown. 3. hasty generalization : internationall business are more complex than local one, moreover, not all people tend to use margarine, in some regions ,they might only use real butter. 177-观点说明型-社区 The following is a letter that recently appeared in the Oak City Gazette, a local newspaper. "Membership in Oak City's Civic Club-a club whose primary objective is to discuss local issues-should continue to be restricted to people who live in Oak City. People who work in Oak City but who live elsewhere cannot truly understand the business and politics of the city. It is important to restrict membership to city residents because only residents pay city taxes and therefore only residents understand how the money could best be used to improve the city. At any rate, restricting membership in this way is unlikely to disappoint many of the nonresidents employed in Oak City, since neighboring Elm City's Civic Club has always had an open membership policy, and only twenty-five nonresidents have joined Elm City's Club in the last ten years." Understanding of the topic: Position: Membership in Oak City's Civic Club-a club whose primary objective is to discuss local issues-should continue to be restricted to people who live in Oak City. Reasons: 1). People who work in Oak City but who live elsewhere cannot truly understand the business and politics of the city. 2). It is important to restrict membership to city residents because only residents pay city taxes and therefore only residents understand how the money could best be used to improve the city. Concession: At any rate, restricting membership in this way is unlikely to disappoint many of the nonresidents employed in Oak City Reason: Since neighboring Elm City's Civic Club has always had an open membership policy, and only twenty-five nonresidents have joined Elm City's Club in the last ten years. 简要翻译： O 城的市民俱乐部应该继续只让住在 O 城的居民参加。因为只有居民缴付城市税，所以他 们知道钱要怎么花才最好的促进这个城市的发展，而在 O 城工作但住在其他地方的人不可 能真正懂得这个城市的商业和政策。另外，限制也不会让非本城居民的员工失望，因为隔 壁 E 城不限制，但是过去十年里只有 25 个非居民会员参加。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. false comparison between two cities. 2. no convincing relationship between understanding of local policies and membership of resident is involved. 3. no evidence show the insulation of nonresidents' morale from such restriction. 2． 1. No evidence shows people cannot truly understand the business and politics of the city only because they live elsewhere, especially those work in OC. on the contrary , they might have a better understanding in how the money could best be used since they are more objective and more aware of the difference between OC and other citys. 2.false analogy between OC and EC since OC might be an immigrating city while EC does not. moreover, few people have joined ECC does not follow that there will be few disappointment if they restrain the noresidents number. 3.Since there is no harm but some advantages in assimilating noresidents numbers, why should the arguer draw the conclusion to restricting them. 178. --决策说明型-商业管理/制度调整 The following appeared in the annual report from the president of the National Brush Company. "In order to save money, we at the National Brush Company have decided to pay our employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. We believe that this policy will lead to the production of more and better brushes, will allow us to reduce our staff size, and will enable the company factories to operate for fewer hours-resulting in savings on electricity and security costs. These changes will ensure that the best workers keep their jobs and that the company will earn a profit in the coming year." Understanding of the topic: Decision: In order to save money, we at the National Brush Company have decided to pay our employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. Prospects: 1). We believe that this policy will lead to the production of more and better brushes 2). It will allow us to reduce our staff size 3). It will enable the company factories to operate for fewer hours-resulting in savings on electricity and security costs. In all, these changes will ensure that the best workers keep their jobs and that the company will earn a profit in the coming year. 简要翻译： 我们应该按员工产 B 的个数计算员工的报酬，而不是像以前那样按时间计算。因为我们相 信这个措施会带来产量和工作效率的同步增加，可以让我们缩减员工，而且生产时间缩短 可以节省电和安全保障的开销。这些变化将保证留下最好的工人，公司也将在明年获得盈 利。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. no evidence shows after the enactment of the policy will cause the increase of better brushes. Conversely, it may fundamentally undermine the quality of the brushes. 2. contrary to arguer's assertion, the policy will probably not ensure the reserving of best workers but quickest workers. 3. due to the probably inferior quality of the brushes, consumers may reject buying them. Therefore the most likely consequence for the company next year is not a profit but a deficit. 4. while admitting a possible saving on electricity, I doubt it claim that security cost will correspondingly decrease. On the contrary, due to the policy, every worker would produce brushes as hasty as possible and an increased accidents would probably be ensued. 2． 1.Does not mention the size and working methods of NBC, in fact, time-pay policy are better than number-pay in larger factory , sometimes number-pay might even disturb the working pace. a. in lage business, number-pay policy are more complex than time-pay.Therefore NBC needs more manager to count the numbers and distribute the salary. b.number-pay policy stimulate workers producer more in certain time, thus the quality of the brushes is problematic. c.In stream lining production, number-pay policy is no good. 2.operate for fewer hours means more work to do in certain hours or less products since the capacity of the employee to build one brushes has limitation; the former cause more security problems since employee got more intensive work to do, the latter decreases the profit. 3.even the best worker can not possibly finish two employee's work, the number-pay policy discourage the slower employee and depress their morale. 179. --比较引论型-选择合作公司 The following is a memorandum written by the director of personnel to the president of the Cedar Corporation. "It would be a mistake to rehire the Good-Taste Company to supply the food in our employee cafeteria next year. It is the second most expensive caterer in the city. In addition, its prices have risen in each of the last three years, and it refuses to provide meals for people on special diets. Just last month three employees complained to me that they no longer eat in the cafeteria because they find the experience 'unbearable.' Our company should instead hire Discount Foods. Discount is a family-owned local company and it offers a varied menu of fish and poultry. I recently tasted a sample lunch at one of the many companies that Discount serves and it was delicious-an indication that hiring Discount will lead to improved employee satisfaction." Understanding of the topic: Position: It would be a mistake to rehire the Good-Taste Company to supply the food in our employee cafeteria next year. Reasons: 1). It is the second most expensive caterer in the city. 2). its prices have risen in each of the last three years 3). it refuses to provide meals for people on special diets 4). Just last month three employees complained to me that they no longer eat in the cafeteria because they find the experience 'unbearable.' Proposal: Our company should instead hire Discount Foods. Reasons: 1). Discount is a family-owned local company and it offers a varied menu of fish and poultry. 2). I recently tasted a sample lunch at one of the many companies that Discount serves and it was delicious-an indication that hiring Discount will lead to improved employee satisfaction. 简要翻译： 公司应该用 D 公司，重新雇用 G 是个错误。因为 G 是这个城市第二贵的，他们的价格过去 三年里一直在涨，而且不给饮食有特殊要求的供餐。上个月就有三个员工向我抱怨他们不 再在食堂时翻了，因为不能忍受他们的服务。雇用 D，D 是一个当地家庭公司，他的菜单 有各种各样的鱼和猪肉。我最近在一个他们服务的公司吃了顿示例的午餐，味道很不错-这 表明选择他们的服务会提高员工的满意度。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the number of people who complained is relatively small. A survey should be carried out before arriving at a conclusion. And the reason why they deem the experience 'unbearable' is not cited. Maybe it is caused not by food factors but by these employees' insatiable contentment. 2. arguer's gustation cannot represent the whole company's. perhaps most of the employees will reject the flavor of DF's food. 3. since the arguer has taken into account the price factor in evaluating GDC's service, the comparison between GTC and DF should also be made. Therein lies the chance that DF's price is the highest among all its counterparts. 4. perhaps the prices of GTC is about to diminish in the next year. 2． 1. "delicious" does not equal nutrient, CC's might be a high intensive working corporation where employees' most needed is nutrient. 2. Does not mention the price and the food quality of DF, a. the price of DF might be higher than GTC b. since DF is a family-owned local company ,in other words, small-size company, the hygiene and amount quality there is problematic. 3."three employees" and "last month" do not make sense. they might be just happenchances 180. -观点说明型-产品推销 The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company. "Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read costs only $500 per employee-a small price to pay when you consider the benefits to Acme. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course." Understanding of the topic: Position: Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course. Why? 1). Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. a). One graduate of the course was able to read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; b). another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. c). Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. 2). Easy Read costs only $500 per employee-a small price to pay when you consider the benefits to Acme. 3). Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. 简要翻译： A 让所有员工参加快速阅读课程会收获很大。因为很多其他公司说他们参加这个课程的员 工生产效率提高很多，这个课程的毕业生两个小时里能读 500 页的报告，另一个毕业生在 一年之内就从经理助理升到了副总裁。显然，读得越快，你一个工作日里获得的信息就越 多。另外这个课程只要 500 元，这与从其收获的相比是非常值得的。它包括在 S 城三个星 期的课程和终身订阅 Easy Read 杂志。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. no evidence show that A would inevitably gain the same benefit as the other companies (a.different stuff, b. different characteristic of jobs of the company.) 2．The examples cited are insufficient and unrepresentative. (a. how many content does the graduate retain when he read the report in two hours. b. what information does the report contain. If it contains five hundred pictures, the graduate is not fast at reading such a report in 2hours. c. the other graduate who got a promotion in one year is not representative and the promotion may have nothing to do with the seminar he attended.) 3. even if the seminar has it effect. It is not necessary to require all the employees to take the course because not all the job in the company require for fast reading capacity. 2． 1. productivity does not represent a corresponding efficiency. Efficiency of their reading might have been greatly undermined by the improvement in their productivity. 2. two examples provided by the arguer lack universality. Further, there's no evidence show that the success of the two persons is due to their training in ER course. Other factors may induce their success such as: persistence, honesty, probity, lucubration and the like. 3. before arriving at the conclusion, the differences between APC and other companies should be evaluated. Differences such as different vocations, different requirement of works, and difference in employees' education. 182. -观点说明-产品调整与市场策略 Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who still ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish margarine from butter, or they use the term "butter" to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well. Understanding of the topic: Situation: Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Position: To avoid the expense of purchasing butter, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well. Supporting evidences: 1). only about 2 percent of customers have complained -Inference: indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. 2). many servers have reported that a number of customers who still ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. -Inference: Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish margarine from butter, or they use the term "butter" to refer to either butter or margarine. 简要翻译： H 饭店应该在东南部地区和东北部地区也用人造黄油换成黄油这项省钱的改变。因为在美 国西南部地区 H 城的这种改变，只引起了 2%的顾客抱怨，这显示 98%的人对这种变化挺 高兴。另外很多服务商报告说很多仍然说要黄油的顾客，当他们得到的是人造黄油时也没 有说什么。很清楚，要么是他们分辨不出来，要么就是他们用黄油这个名称称呼这两种产 品。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Geographic difference will give rise to differences in gustation. 2. it is absurd to deduce the 98 percent of customers are happy with the change. 3. no evidence show that the cost of purchasing margarine is less than that of butter. 2． 1.either or fallacy... 2% have complained does not follow 98% are happy with the change, there are also some people feeling indifferent with the change. moreover, some of this 98% might choose silience even they didn't satisfied with the margarine . 2.hasty generalization: the status of southeast and northest are different. 3. No evidence shows customers cannot distinguish margarine from butter only because they do not complain when they recieved margarine. there is not direct connection between complaint and distinguishing. it is quite possible they are avoiding troubles in dealing with shoppers. 184. -问题解决型-图书馆 In the Bayhead Public Library, books that are rarely borrowed continue to take up shelf space year after year, while people who want to read a recent novel frequently find that the library's only copy is checked out. Clearly, the library's plan to replace books that are borrowed no more than once a year with sufficient copies of more recent books will solve this problem. The protest we have heard since this plan was made public has come from a small, and thus unrepresentative, group of some thirty people and so should therefore be ignored. Understanding of the topic: Problem: In the Bayhead Public Library, books that are rarely borrowed continue to take up shelf space year after year, while people who want to read a recent novel frequently find that the library's only copy is checked out. Solution: Clearly, the library's plan to replace books that are borrowed no more than once a year with sufficient copies of more recent books will solve this problem. Feasibility of the solution: The protest we have heard since this plan was made public has come from a small, and thus unrepresentative, group of some thirty people and so should therefore be ignored. 简要翻译： 图书馆准备把每年借出次数不多的书换成多几分较新的书，这样能够解决有些书占书架， 有些人想借的书不够的问题。我们听到的反对意见时，因为这项计划已向外宣布，来自一 个小的没有代表性的 30 多个人的队伍，所以可以忽略他们的意见。 推荐提纲： 1.It will be quite unwise for BPL to replace books that are borrowed no more than once a year with sufficeint sopies of more recent books a. recent books such as periodical and best sellers are fashion and short-time aimed issues. They will lose its attraction soon. b.less borrowed books does equal unimportant books. the classical literature and academic books are essential for a library to attract their readers and such readers will be disappointed when they can not found what they want. c."recent books" will eventually become "old books" , thus made the conclusion paradoxical . 2.number of protesting people is some thirty does not followed that they can be ignored. a.Not all people noticed BPL's project b.A lot of people choose silence even they protest the project. 2． 1, To solve this problem, the arguer only considered replacing the books that are borrowed no more than once a year with sufficient copies of more recent books, but how much is the cost of replacement? Can this library afford? 2. Library can be called "library" in that it is such a place in which various kinds of materials, such as books, periodicals, newspapers, records, and tapes, are kept. BPL should keep at least one version of old books to guarantee every reader who can find out the book they want. If BPL replace the old ones with new ones, here maybe just called "bookstore". 3. Protest of some thirty people may not be ingnored. Probably there are many people who are not satisfied with this plan choose to keep silence. But the protest is indeed representative. 185. --观点说明型--开源节流 The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment building to its manager. "One month ago, all the showerheads on the first five floors of Sunnyside Towers were modified to restrict the water flow to approximately 1/3 of its original force. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, restricting water flow throughout all the 20 floors of Sunnyside Towers will increase our profits further." Understanding of the topic: Background: One month ago, all the showerheads on the first five floors of Sunnyside Towers were modified to restrict the water flow to approximately 1/3 of its original force Position: Clearly, restricting water flow throughout all the 20 floors of Sunnyside Towers will increase our profits further. Reasons: 1). Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. 2). Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. 简要翻译： 对 20 层的 S 塔楼限制水流，能够进一步提高我们的利润。因为这样可以为公司省很多钱。 一个月前，下面五层楼的淋浴喷头被调整，限制了三分之一的水流量。虽然调整后具体的 用水量还不知道，这个措施显然为公司节约了大量的钱。除了一些关于水压的抱怨外，没 有别的关于喷头的抱怨。 推荐提纲： 1.1 hasty generalization: the status of higher floor are quite diffrent from the first five floors a. higher floors need higher pressure. There were already complaints about the low water pressure in the first five floors, according to this tendency, there might result in more complaints thus decreases the morale or the employees . b. higher floors might be large-water consumers. restricting water flows might decrease the productivity and efficiency. 1.2 No evidence shows that SC profits will increase even they strict the water flow. a. the water fee often contribute a small part of the total pay. b. no evidencs shows that the major cost of SC water fee comes from the ST water usage. b. the profits comes mainly from the selling of bussiness and cost of the products. 2.1 fails to convince us that the modification has saved water for SC since people can keep water flowing for longer time to get enough water under a low pressure. 2.2 fails to illustrate that the residents in the apartment is satisfied with the adjustment. (the number of complaints reported does not necessarily equal the number of dissatisfied people. ) 2.3 the adjustment may work well with the first 5 floor but it may course serious water pressure problem when applying to all the 20 floors. (the higher floor need higher pressure of water) 2.4 the cost of adjustment should be included into consideration 186-观点说明型/比较引论-生产力提高 The following is a recommendation from the director of personnel to the president of Professional Printing Company. "In a recent telephone survey of automobile factory workers, older employees were less likely to report that having a supervisor present increases their productivity. Among workers aged 18 to 29, 27 percent said that they are more productive in the presence of their immediate supervisor, compared to 12 percent for those aged 30 or over, and only 8 percent for those aged 50 or over. Clearly, if our printing company hires mainly older employees, we will increase productivity and save money because of the reduced need for supervisors." Understanding of the topic: Survey Result: In a recent telephone survey of automobile factory workers, older employees were less likely to report that having a supervisor present increases their productivity. 1). Among workers aged 18 to 29, 27 percent said that they are more productive in the presence of their immediate supervisor 2). 12 percent for those aged 30 or over 3). only 8 percent for those aged 50 or over Proposal: Clearly, if our printing company hires mainly older employees, we will increase productivity and save money because of the reduced need for supervisors. 简要翻译： 我们印刷公司主要雇佣老员工的话，将提高生产率并省下雇佣监察员的钱。因为一份对汽 车工人的电话调查显示，当监察员在现场时，18 到 29 岁的工人中有 27%的人表示工作效 率会提高，30-50 岁的工人有 12%如此表示，而 50 岁以上的工人只有 8%。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. false analogy between automobile factory workers and printing company. the latter might be more complex and need more attention than the former. thus made older unsuitable for printing than automobile manufacturing. 2.people are more productive in the presence of their immediate supervisors does not follow they have poorer efficiency than older employees when supervisors not presenting. in fact, the younger might be more productivity than olders even they have not do their best. 3. no total number of the age groups. 27%, 12%,7% do not make senses. 2． 1.The figures of the reports are not objective. 1) Older employees' report might not be reliable. They are an older generation and would not be ready to admit that they need a supervisor to help increase their productivity even if it is the fact. 2) what employees claim might not really reflect their true situation. . 2.false analogy. Automobile workers can not be compared with printing ones. The nature of the work is totally different. 3.Increase productivity is a vague concept so far, which is not ensured, lacking the comparison of the productivity between the young and the old. Perhaps the older are slower in general than the young, and they don't have room to increase their productivity even in the presence of their supervisor. The younger ones are more potential, comparatively speaking. 4.The negative side isn't taken into consideration. 1) No company would mainly hires older employees, which breaks the balance of the make-up of the employee structure. What if after a few years the older employees retire at once? 2) older employees might be poorer in health, and sick leaves might be more. 187－观点说明型－饮食与健康 The following appeared as part of an article in a health magazine. "A new discovery warrants a drastic change in the diets of people living in the United States. Two scientists have recently suggested that omega -3 fatty acids (found in some fish and fish oils) play a key role in mental health. Our ancestors, who ate less saturated fat and more polyunsaturated fat, including omega -3 fatty acids, were much less likely to suffer from depression than we are today. Moreover, modern societies-such as those in Japan and Taiwan-that consume large quantities of fish report depression rates lower than that in the United States. Given this link between omega -3 fatty acids and depression, it is important for all people in the United States to increase their consumption of fish in order to prevent depression." Understanding of the topic: Position: It is important for all people in the United States to increase their consumption of fish in order to prevent depression. Reasons: Given this link between omega -3 fatty acids and depression 1). Two scientists have recently suggested that omega -3 fatty acids (found in some fish and fish oils) play a key role in mental health. 2). Our ancestors, who ate less saturated fat and more polyunsaturated fat, including omega -3 fatty acids, were much less likely to suffer from depression than we are today. 3). modern societies-such as those in Japan and Taiwan-that consume large quantities of fish report depression rates lower than that in the United States. 简要翻译： 对所有美国人来说更多吃鱼来防止精神不好很重要。因为两个科学家最近表示 Q 酸这种在 一些鱼和鱼油里发现的东西对心理健康很有影响。我们的祖先就少吃饱和脂肪，多吃不饱 和脂肪，其中就包括 Q 酸，他们就比我们今天精神要好得多。另外，现代社会，比如大量 食用鱼的日本人，他们反映出来的精神不好就比美国人少。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.false analogy a. between now and past: things are totally diffrent nowadays and ancestors, today the pace of life is more rapid and social relationship is more complex than ancent times. b. between japan-Taiwan and US: these two regions are much smaller than US, consequently ,things there can not apply directly to the variation and complexity of US peoples. moreover, there is no evidence shows people in these two places are less depressed due to consuming large quatities of fish. the pace of life and social relationship in these regions are different from US too. 2.Not all fish contains O3 flatty fats according to the argument. 3.No evidence shows "all" people in US should increase their consumption of fish: a.some of them might be allergic to fishes b.some of them might have already consuming enough fish everyday. 2． 1, it is unjustifiable for the arguer to make a comparison between the ancestors who lived thousands years ago and people who live today. Because the ancient people just led a quite simple life, they never think about things as deep or through as people today, also under today's severe competition, people usually live under a heavy pressure which comes from society, family, work and so on. Thus of course people today incline to be depressed. 2, 从充分必要条件的逻辑点驳斥： The argument proceeds that the consumption of fish as if a condition, which by itself is enough to guarantee a certain result-----suffer less depression, is the only condition under which the result would occur. 3, furthermore, the arguer fails to consider other relevant factor, which also can contribute to the high rate of depression in the contemporary American society. 4, finally, the claim that arguer made seems the only choice for the Americans to improve their depression problem, however, that is unproved and the arguer ignores other better or more applicable measures to resolve this problem. 188－观点说明型－研究结果/男与女的差异 A new report suggests that men and women experience pain very differently from one another, and that doctors should consider these differences when prescribing pain medications. When researchers administered the same dosage of kappa opioids-a painkiller-to 28 men and 20 women who were having their wisdom teeth extracted, the women reported feeling much less pain than the men, and the easing of pain lasted considerably longer in women. This research suggests that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required, whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication. In addition, researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications on men versus women. Understanding of the topic: Position: A new report suggests that men and women experience pain very differently from one another, and that doctors should consider these differences when prescribing pain medications. Research Approach: Researchers administered the same dosage of kappa opioids-a painkiller-to 28 men and 20 women who were having their wisdom teeth extracted Results: 1). the women reported feeling much less pain than the men 2). the easing of pain lasted considerably longer in women Conclusion: 1). this research suggests that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required, whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication. 2). researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications on men versus women. 简要翻译： 只要止痛药需要就要给女的开 K，而男的应该开别的药。另外研究者应该对所有药对于男 女不同的效果重新评估。因为一份新的报告显示，男女对痛的经历非常不同，医生应该考 虑给他们开不同的止痛药。研究中给在拔智齿的 28 个男人和 20 个女人开同样剂量的 K， 女的比男的少说痛，而且药效女的也明显长一些。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. 28,20 is relative small numbers for a convincing medical research. 2. hasty generalization: a. There is no evidence in other conditions other than wisdom teech medications, thus make the conclusion "whenever pain medication is required" unfounded. b. even kappa opioids effects differently in men and women, no evidence shows "men and women experience pain very diffrently from one another." 3. no evidence shows that men can not use kappa opioids even they feel more pain than women , the determining elements to use KO is whether KO actually effects. moreover, slow effect does not mean no effect. thus there is no reason to restrict ko usage for men. 4. even the Ko is not fitted for men ,there is no reason researchers should reevaluated the effects of all medications on men versus women, in fact, some medications are firmly proved effect in both men and women. 2． 1.Either 28 or 20 is too small a number for a survey. 2.Kappa opioids might work off the pain for women around teeth area only and can't be suggested for women whenever pain medication is required. For example, it might fail to work for a stomachache or a headache. 3.Fails to prove that kappa opioids doesn't work on men at all, and fails to offer other kinds of pain medications which are more potent than kappo opioids, and fails to strengthen the need to reevaluate the effects of all medications on men versus women. Why necessarily when some pain killers have shown obvious effects on both men and women? 190－问题解决型－市场策略调整/音乐会 The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper. " Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts." Understanding of the topic: Problem: Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Analysis: 1). Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. 2). Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music Solution: 1). so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future 2). They should be sure to include music composed by Richerts-Reason: His recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings Prospect: This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts. 简要翻译： 音乐会的组织者今后应该更多选择现代音乐并保证有 R 的音乐，与其他现代音乐相比，当 地人更倾向于买他的，这个策略无疑会提高预售票的购买，并提高音乐会的就座率。因为 不是天气的不可预测影响了售票，所以销售下降是演奏音乐的选择问题。过去几年系列音 乐会售票的下滑，显示缺乏社会的认同和支持。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.featuring more modern music in the future is problematic since no evidence shows that the residents there prefer modern music.moreover, the effects of including music composed by Richerts is open to doubt. people tends to buy his recordings does not follow that they tends to listen his composition in concert.: a. since they already have his recordings and can appreciate them in homw. b. R's style might not suit for formal concerts. 2.The arguer can not rule out the weather influence only by saying many people attended the concerts even in bad weathers: a. it is quite possible these concerts are most important and attractive. b. quite a lot of people might not go to concerts again after they suffering the bad weathers. 3. other factors cause the decline of attendance, the quality of GSC might be poor to lose its consumers. 4. reputation is easy to lose but hard to regain. thus made the "strategy will undoubtedly increase " open to doubt. 2． 1. fails to provide evidence that there is a change in the musical taste of GC citizens. a. fails to convince us that the attendance does decline. (advance tickets purchased not equal the tickets actually sold out ) b. even if the declination do exist, the weather may just be the reason which cause the decline, since although many people attend the concert in bad weather, there may also be a lot of people who would not attend the concert because of bad weather. c. Even if the reason of declination is not bad weather, we can not rule out factors other than change of musical taste. (factors can be : economical factors, the impact of television in supplant locale concerts etc) 2. there is no evidence that the modern music is more popular. 3. Richerts got a good sale on recording does not equal that people expect the concert to include music composed by him. It may be that since people have buy his records, they can enjoy his music at home and expect to hear something new in the concert. 191－观点说明型－远程教育 The following is a letter from a professor at Xanadu College to the college's president. "The development of an extensive computer-based long-distance learning program will enhance the reputation of Xanadu College. This program would allow more students to enroll in our courses, thereby increasing our income from student tuition. Traditional courses could easily be adapted for distance learners, as was shown by the adaptation of two traditional courses for our distance learning trial project last year. Also, by using computer programs and taped lectures, faculty will have fewer classroom obligations and more time to engage in extensive research, thereby enhancing the reputation of Xanadu." Understanding of the topic: Position: The development of an extensive computer-based long-distance learning program will enhance the reputation of Xanadu College. Reasons: 1). This program would allow more students to enroll in our courses, thereby increasing our income from student tuition. 2). Traditional courses could easily be adapted for distance learners, as was shown by the adaptation of two traditional courses for our distance learning trial project last year. 3). by using computer programs and taped lectures, faculty will have fewer classroom obligations and more time to engage in extensive research, thereby enhancing the reputation of Xanadu. 简要翻译： 发展计算机远程教育会提高学校的声誉。因为这个课程可以让更多的学生上我们的课从而 增加学费收入，另外传统课程也容易适应远程的学习者，这已经被去年试点的两个课程证 实。同样，计算机和配套磁带讲座，老师不用去教室，而有更多的时间去搞研究，从而提 高学校声誉。 推荐提纲： 1.hasty generalization traditional courses' well adaption does not follow that all courses can be adapted . moreover, two courses does not make sense since they might be particular and suitable for long-distance learning. 2. the pefermance of long-distance learning program is problematic since it can not provide the group studying atmosphere and vivid teaching.therefore the conclusion about "enhancing the reputaion of X" is unfounded.in fact, it might acts reversely to decrease the reputation of X. 3.No evidence shows faculty will have fewer classroom since no tendency shows that more students choose the long-distance learning project. 2． 1. the cost of the program should also be considered. 2. there are no evidence show that traditional courses can be easily adapted (the two course trialed were not representative enough) 3. faculty's should still have work such as making the courses of traditional adapted to the program, revising the homework handed up, and answering the questions of the students etc. 4. a reputation of a univ is composed by many factors, not only the number of students enrolled or the research carried out. (the contracture of major, the quality of curricular, the job perspective of the graduate. ) 192－观点说明型－政府政策/城镇合并 The following is a letter to the editor of the Roseville Gazette. "Despite opposition from some residents of West Roseville, the arguments in favor of merging the townships of Roseville and West Roseville are overwhelming. First, residents in both townships are confused about which authority to contact when they need a service; for example, the police department in Roseville receives many calls from residents of West Roseville. This sort of confusion would be eliminated with the merger. Second, the savings in administrative costs would be enormous, since services would no longer be duplicated: we would have only one fire chief, one tax department, one mayor, and so on. And no jobs in city government would be lost-employees could simply be reassigned. Most importantly, the merger will undoubtedly attract business investments as it did when the townships of Hamden and North Hamden merged ten years ago." Understanding of the topic: Position: Despite opposition from some residents of West Roseville, the arguments in favor of merging the townships of Roseville and West Roseville are overwhelming. Reasons: 1). Residents in both townships are confused about which authority to contact when they need a service; for example, the police department in Roseville receives many calls from residents of West Roseville. This sort of confusion would be eliminated with the merger. 2). The savings in administrative costs would be enormous, since services would no longer be duplicated: we would have only one fire chief, one tax department, one mayor, and so on. 3). No jobs in city government would be lost-employees could simply be reassigned. 4). The merger will undoubtedly attract business investments as it did when the townships of Hamden and North Hamden merged ten years ago. 简要翻译： 尽管一些 WR 的居民反对，合并 R 和 WR 的好处还是占上风的。首先，两镇的居民现在需 要服务的时候总是不清楚到底该找谁，合并后就不会有这事儿了，因为服务不再双份。另 外，政府的工作也不会少，员工可以简单的重新分配。最重要的是，合并无疑会吸引商业 投资，十年前 H 和 NH 合并的时候就是这样的。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.False analogy between H-NH merging and R-WR merging and fail to establish the relationship between business invetsment and H-NH merging. 2.services can be reduced after merging is unfounded, there is no evidence shows on set of services can handle two-town sized region.besides, reassigning job is problematic since each person tends to do what he/she can do , a fireman can not handle the job of a shop seller as well. 3.Wrong calls and confusion about authority do not mean the residents would support the merging project. residents in both town have their own habits and norms. 2． 1. the success of different towns at a different time does not promise the success of the mergence of W and R. 2. though services would not be duplicated, the amount of work and employees will surely not be curtailed. And the bureaucratic complexity will increase, which will cause it less efficient and cost even more money. 3. neglecting the opposition of the residents of WR is harmful after the mergence of the two. 4. residents' confusion-as alleged by the arguer-may not really the case. The example that arguer proposed is unpersuasive, since the calls from residents of WR is for the accidents, or others that happened in R. 193－观点说明/比较引论－教育/作业布置 The Department of Education in the state of Attra recommends that high school students be assigned homework every day. Yet a recent statewide survey of high school math and science teachers calls the usefulness of daily homework into question. In the district of Sanlee, 86 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week, whereas in the district of Marlee, less than 25 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week. Yet the students in Marlee earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are the students in Sanlee. Therefore, all teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week, if at all. Understanding of the topic: Background: The Department of Education in the state of Attra recommends that high school students be assigned homework every day. Position: This approach is problematic Supporting Evidence: A recent statewide survey of high school math and science teachers calls the usefulness of daily homework into question. a). In the district of Sanlee, 86 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week b). In the district of Marlee, less than 25 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week. Comparison: The students in Marlee earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are the students in Sanlee. Conclusion: Therefore, all teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week, if at all. 简要翻译： 如果非得有家庭作业的话，我们的高中老师每星期布置的作业应该不超过两次。因为最近 全州对数学和理科老师的调查显示，在 S 区 86％的老师每周布置三到五次作业，M 区则不 到 25％的老师布置每周三到五次作业。但 M 的学生比 S 的学生少留级。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.false analogy between S and M a. M might have better pedagogics b. M might have better students resources. c. M might be more loose in policy of grade and repeating year schooling. 2.hasty genralization: math and science courses can not represent the whole status. they are more complex and need better logical thinking to handle. while other courses might be totally diffrent.eg. history and other social science courses.in these courses , repeating homework will help a lot. 2． 1. the argument is self-contradicted due to its discrepancies between its conclusion and the comparison it provided. 2. the comparison should take into consideration of the quality of school faculty, students, teaching methods and so on. Merely comparison of homework is not effective to draw the conclusion. And application in A should also consider all the aspects of school. 3. it is true that less teachers in M assigning work three to five times. But they may assign work six to eight times a week. 4. questions from only science and math teachers is too limited. Teachers' in other subjects should be considered. 194－观点说明－个人特性与职业选择/调查研究 A recent study suggests that people who are left-handed are more likely to succeed in business than are right-handed people. Researchers studied photographs of 1,000 prominent business executives and found that 21 percent of these executives wrote with their left hand. So the percentage of prominent business executives who are left-handed (21 percent) is almost twice the percentage of people in the general population who are left-handed (11 percent). Thus, people who are left-handed would be well advised to pursue a career in business, whereas people who are right-handed would be well advised to imitate the business practices exhibited by left-handers. Understanding of the topic: Position: A recent study suggests that people who are left-handed are more likely to succeed in business than are right-handed people. Research Approach: Researchers studied photographs of 1,000 prominent business executives Supporting Evidence: They found that 21 percent of these executives wrote with their left hand. Inference: So the percentage of prominent business executives who are left-handed (21 percent) is almost twice the percentage of people in the general population who are left-handed (11 percent). Conclusion: Thus, people who are left-handed would be well advised to pursue a career in business, whereas people who are right-handed would be well advised to imitate the business practices exhibited by left-handers. 简要翻译： 左撇子应该去从商，右撇子应效仿左撇子的经商行为。因为最近的研究显示左撇子比右撇 子更可能在商场中成功。研究者通过对 1000 多名商业巨头作分析，发现 21％的人用左手写 字。这个比例几乎是普通人中间左撇子的两倍。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.photographs can not be convincing evidence. a. photographers are quite possiblly more like to take the unusual pictures such as left-hand writing. b. simply equal "wrote with left hand" as "left-handed", they might write unskillfully in left hand and they might also be flexible in both hands. 1.The survey is open to doubt since the arguer didn't provide how many people who act as bussiness executives are left-handed. the general population who are left-handed(11%) can not prove anything. simply put, if 50% of executives are all left-handed. the result of prominent can be only expressed as 21/50, however, the right-handed result of pominent is 79/50, which is bigger? 21/50 or 79/50? 3. no evidence shows right-handed executives less prominent than left-handed executives. thus made the conclusion "right-handed would be well advised to imitate the business practices exhibited by left-handers." unfounded. moreover, not all people suit for business. thus the conclusion "people who are left-handed would be well advised to pursue a career in business," is open to doubt. 2． 1. lack inherent medical and psychological relationship between the two kinds of people. 2. though higher than average the percentage of left-handed people in business is, there is still far more than 21 percent of people who are right-handed. 3. only the 1,000 selected executives is too narrow a pool of subjects to demonstrate the conclusion that the arguer proposes. All people in different posts should be considered. 195－问题解决型－出版/市场、经营策略调整 The following is a letter from an editor at Liber Publishing Company to the company's president. "In recent years, Liber has unfortunately moved away from its original mission: to publish the works of regional small-town authors instead of those of big-city authors. Just last year, 90 percent of the novels we published were written by authors who maintain a residence in a big city. Although this change must have been intended to increase profits, it has obviously backfired, because Liber is now in serious financial trouble. The only way to address this problem is to return to our original mission. If we return to publishing only the works of regional small-town authors, our financial troubles will soon be resolved." Understanding of the topic: Background: In recent years, Liber has unfortunately moved away from its original mission: to publish the works of regional small-town authors instead of those of big-city authors. Evidence: Just last year, 90 percent of the novels we published were written by authors who maintain a residence in a big city. Situation & Problem: Although this change must have been intended to increase profits, it has obviously backfired, because Liber is now in serious financial trouble. Solution: The only way to address this problem is to return to our original mission. Prospect: If we return to publishing only the works of regional small-town authors, our financial troubles will soon be resolved. 简要翻译： 恢复只出本地小镇作者的书，财政问题很快就会解决。因为去年 90％的小说都是大城市作 者的，我们现在处于严重的财政危机中。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. one year's instance is not representative enough. 2. what is the original percentage of the novels written by big-city authors? May be the original mission of L was that 95percent of novels published was written by the big-city authors 3. the cause of the financial trouble may not be the shift in publication. 4. there may be that many small town authors emigrate to big cities in recent years 5. publishing only the works of regional small town authors may even extravagate the problem. 2． 1.novels does not equal whole publishing works. thus make the 90% inconvincing. 2.no evidence shows the finacial trouble is caused by authors maintain a residence in a big city, there are quite a lot other reasons: a. It is in a literature depression or ecomonic depression. b. the pakage ,cover are not well designed. paper of books are poor in quality. c. the books written by authors maintain a residence sells farely well but the other books met some troubles. d. they lose their competitivity to other pulishers. 3.no evidence shows that finacial troubles will soon be resolved only by return to publishing only the works of regional small-town authors. a. publishing only the works of regional small-town authors is problematic since the LPC hadn't repulse the authors residents in a big city. b.finacial troubles is easy to occur than to reslove. even the problem is caused by what the arguer considered, it's hard for LPC to recover from the finacial troubles immediately. 200－因为所以型－医疗 Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients. Understanding of the topic: Evidence: Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. Inference: This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Conclusion: Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients. 简要翻译： 打广告吸引病人的牙医应该把目标放在男人身上，并强调他们麻醉技术的效果以及员工对 病人紧张和疼痛的关心。因为从牙医那儿收集的数据表明，看牙医晕的男人比女人多三倍， 这显示男人比女人接受牙治疗时更紧张。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. since women can also faint while visiting the dentist, the one-sided target on male is unwise. 2.No evidence shows the patients faint because of nervous or suffering. also no evidence shows the faint due to lacking of sensitivity of dentists' staff. 3.falis to mention the propotion of men and women visiting the dentist. the men patients might more than women patients. 2． The statistics from dentists doesn't sound reliable withought detailed comparison between the two genders. Even so, it still shows that women faint at the dentist's, too. No successful advertisement should be narrowly targeted to male customers when the product might be equally effective to females. There is no direct correlation between men's fainting and their distress about having dental work done. Those men might also faint on the road in the strong sunshine, because of stress their at work or knots in his stomachs. The causes may vary. 201－观点说明型－健康 The citizens of Forsythe have adopted healthier lifestyles. Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago. Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol. This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of the healthiest citizens regularly eat. Understanding of the topic: Position: The citizens of Forsythe have adopted healthier lifestyles. Reasons: 1). Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago. 2). There has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol. 3). This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of the healthiest citizens regularly eat. 简要翻译： F 的市民现在采用了更健康的生活方式。因为在最近的一次调查中，他们反映出较十年前更 接近政府营养建议的饮食习惯。另外，含科学证明可降胆固醇的 K 的食品销量增长了四倍， 而且 S 的销量下降了，也是这个趋势的一个证据，很少有最健康的居民经常食用这种食物。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the government nutritional recommendations are quite possibly changed during the ten years. the kiran and sulia were not on their recommendations ten years ago. thus these two food sales do not prove the citizens of F comform more closely to goverment nutritional recommendations. their sales might have already changed before goverment's recommedation. 2. the arguer simply treat the healthier lifestyles as lower cholesterol. in fact, there are many other factors and the lower cholesterol contributes only a little part. 3. no evidence shows that citizens do not eat sulia because government did recommedate it, since few heathiese citizens regularly eat does follow that sulia are harmfull to health. moreover, the healthiest citizens contribute only a little part of the whole population. the reduced sales of sulia might be due to other reasons such as decreased qulity of food made in sulia and sulia are out of favor. 2． 1. the effectiveness of government's recommendations is cast to doubt. 2. decrease in sale of the food containing kiran does not mean the decrease in low cholesterol. There are many other food that may contribute to high levels of cholesterol. Although it is true that cholesterol level has decreased, it does not follow that the general health condition of people have been increased. The term healthy does not only mean low level of cholesterol. 3. it makes no sense to judge the health conditions of people by reduced sales of sulia. There's no evident relationship between people's health and sulia. 202－观点说明型－人与物种灭绝 Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands had become extinct. Yet humans cannot have been a factor in the species' extinctions, because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Therefore, some climate change or other environmental factor must have caused the species' extinctions. Understanding of the topic: Background: Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands had become extinct. Position: Yet humans cannot have been a factor in the species' extinctions Reasons: 1). Because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. 2). Archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Conclusion: Therefore, some climate change or other environmental factor must have caused the species' extinctions. 简要翻译： 天气变化或其他环境因素导致了物种灭绝。因为人不可能是灭绝的一个因素。没有证据表 明人和哺乳动物有很多接触。另外，考古学家发现了很多带有鱼骨的地方，但没有发现含 有大型哺乳动物的骨头的地方，所以人不可能捕杀哺乳动物。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. no evidence does not equal no 2. no sites of discarded bones does not mean no hunting a. bones of the mammal may to used to make tools b. the archaeologist may fails to find the site. 3. even if human being is not responsible for the extinction of large mammal, there are many other factors rather than environmental factors. Such as fatal disease, lack of food because of over propagation. 2． 1. archaeological finding is not comprehensive to reveal the hunting habits of human beings. Chances are, humans dissected the body of mammals outside their dwellings, bringing back only flesh of the mammal. 2. no significant contact does not mean no responsibility with animals' extinction. Indirect ways can deracinate animals as well. Such as pollution, deforestation and so on in recent years. 3. it is possible that due to man's large hunting of fish, some animals, who live by solely on fish, become extinct as the fish's decreased population. And in turn another group of animals extinct due to the extinct of those whose food is mainly fish. 203－观点说明型/比较引论－医疗 The following appeared in a newspaper feature story. "At the small, nonprofit hospital in the town of Saluda, the average length of a patient's stay is two days; at the large, for-profit hospital in the nearby city of Megaville, the average patient stay is six days. Also, the cure rate among patients in the Saluda hospital is about twice that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda hospital has more employees per patient than the hospital in Megaville, and there are few complaints about service at the local hospital. Such data indicate that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals." Understanding of the topic: Position: Treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals. Supporting Data: 1). At the small, nonprofit hospital in the town of Saluda, the average length of a patient's stay is two days; at the large, for-profit hospital in the nearby city of Megaville, the average patient stay is six days. 2). The cure rate among patients in the Saluda hospital is about twice that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda hospital has more employees per patient than the hospital in Megaville 3). there are few complaints about service at the local hospital. 简要翻译： 小的非赢利医院的治疗比大的赢利医院更经济、质量也更好。因为 S 的非赢利医院病人的 平均住院天数是两天，而附近的 M 市大的赢利医院的平均住院天数是六天。另外，S 的治 愈率是 M 的两倍。S 每位医生看的病人也比 M 的多，抱怨也少。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. no evidence show that S is better in service than M a. shorter patient stay may due to regulations in S which prescribe the stay of patients regardless the health condition of him/her. b. Faster cure rate is under question. It may be that those who got indisposition go to S while those who suffer a server one would go to M. c. Few complaint is not pervasive since the initial number of people who go to S and M remains unknown. d. More employees per patient has nothing to do with better service. One expertise is better than 10 quack. 2. even if S is better in service it does not follow that all the small, nonprofit hospitals is in the same condition with S. 2． 1. people suffering the serious disease are more likely to go large hospital in M, thus made the time spend in there longer and cure rate lower. moreover, S can not treat all disease due to its small size. eg.a. cancer patients might not able to be treated in S, so they go to M. b. S lacks certain special medical devises which only provided in larger hospitals. 2.more employees per patients does not follow higer efficiency. the stuff in large hospital in M are well treated and more responsible since it deals directly with their profits. 3.few complaints about service at the local hospital does not ensure better quality. a. no comparition between large hospitals. b. local social relationship made the few complaints c. non-profit allows low quality. thus people are more tolerant with the service. 204－观点说明型－农业生产/市场调整 The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a farming publication. "With continuing publicity about the need for healthful diets, and with new research about the harmful effects of eating too much sugar, nationwide demand for sugar will no doubt decline. Therefore, farmers in our state should use the land on which they currently grow sugar cane to grow peanuts, a food that is rich in protein and low in sugar. Farmers in the neighboring country of Palin greatly increased their production of peanuts last year, and their total revenues from that crop were quite high." Understanding of the topic: Position: Farmers in our state should use the land on which they currently grow sugar cane to grow peanuts, a food that is rich in protein and low in sugar. Reasons: 1). With continuing publicity about the need for healthful diets, and with new research about the harmful effects of eating too much sugar, nationwide demand for sugar will no doubt decline. 2). Farmers in the neighboring country of Palin greatly increased their production of peanuts last year, and their total revenues from that crop were quite high. 简要翻译： 我们州种糖蔗的地应该用来种花生。因为对健康饮食地宣传，以及关于吃太多糖地坏作用 的研究会带来全国性的糖需求无疑的下降。隔壁 P 城去年提高了花生的产量，他们由此的 收入相当可观。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. false analogy between the state mentioned in the arguement and P. a. P might be famous for their peanuts. b. P might have advanced cultivation in growing peanuts. c. the climate in P is suitable for growing peanuts. 2. no evidence shows the demand for sugar will decline only because eating too much sugar will do harm to health. a. not everybody eating too much sugar but they do favor in eating sugar sometimes. b. even eating too sugar will do harm to health, it does not follow people will abandon in eating them. eg. cigarette do harm to our health but cigarette sells fairly well . 3.transform from land currently grow sugar cane to grow peanuts takes much time and money but ensures nothing. 2． 1. there is no reason to conclude that national demand for sugar will decline. (a. no evidence show that people are now eating too much sugar. b. even if people will eat less sugar it does not follow that sugar for other usage will not increase. 2. even if national demand for sugar will decline, there is no evidence show that farmer are shifting from growing sugar cane to growing peanuts. (a. neighboring country's policy may not benefit our country since both the soil of farm and the penchant of the consumer are different. b. except sugar cane and peanuts there are still many other crops which can be grown 205－观点说明型/比较引论－抵制犯罪 The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce. "Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city." Understanding of the topic: Proposal: we should install such lighting throughout Amburg Reasons: 1). Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. 2). The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. 3). High intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime 4). Benefit of this-- By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city. 简要翻译： 降低犯罪后，我们可以扭转我们城市人际居住环境的下降，我们应该在全 A 安装这样的灯。 因为它显然是打击犯罪的最有效的途径。去年十月，B 城在商业区中心这样做了，肆意破 坏公共设施活动几乎立刻下降。A 城最近开始派警察骑自行车在商业区巡逻，但是损坏公 共设施的行为并没有下降。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. fails to establish the vandalism declined in B and installation of intensity lighting. there might be other factors: a. intensification of the local public security by increase the police number. b. several new law clauses have been enact. 2.the arguer treats the vandalism as the major crime. in fact, there might be less vandalism but more other crimes such as robbery ,murder and rape in A. 3.no evidence shows the declining neighborhoods in A are caused by crime rate there: pollution ,local business depression , heavy traffic, increasing taxes. 2． 1. groundless relationship between high intensity lighting and declined crimes. It is highly probable that B has issued many policies dedicated to deracinating crimes. 2. oblivious to the differences between the two city. Perhaps A is not suitable for installation of such high lighting. 3. no evidence shows that the declining neighborhoods are due to crimes. Other factors such a culture, beliefs could contribute to such a decline. 4. the rate of vandalism is possibly on the plausible rate that is hardly to be lowered. 5. presumptuously equates vandalism to crime. 207-推理型－环境与物种 It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species. Understanding of the topic: Fact: 1). It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. 2). Scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Inference: It must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. Reason: 1). Ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues 2). Salamander eggs have no protective shells Conclusion: This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species. 简要翻译： 紫外线照射得增加一定破坏了很多 S 蛋并阻止了他们得孵化，而且这个过程无疑也会造成 其他种类数目的下降。因为工业污染已造成地球臭氧层变薄从而增加了到达地球表面的紫 外线的量，同时科学家发现一种在山上的湖里产孵的 S 的数目下降。紫外线已知对 S 蛋脆 弱的组织有破坏，而 S 蛋也有保护壳。 推荐提纲： 1． The evidence is too insufficient. There is simply no correlation whatsoever existing between ultraviolet radiation and the decline of the population of a species. The stated cause might be a reason, but it's nothing more than an assumption as nothing substantial has been presented.. There might be so many causes for the decline of a species of a creature. A simple reason might be, the eggs have been eaten by some fishes, as there are no protective shells for the eggs, and they must taste so tender and tasty and nutritious. Even I would like to fish one egg from the lake and enjoy its delicacy, let alone the fishes or ahy other lake monsters. The generalization in the end about the imagined process's undoubtedly causing population declines in other species are totally groundless, since the very case of salamander has been far from being clearly explained. 2． 1. the hatching processes of other species may be differ from salamander's. 2. whether the hatching process of salamander is affected by the increase of ultraviolet is undetermined. The assertion above is just base on seemingly plausible assumption. In fact other factors such as air pollution, acid rain, people's hunting and the like should be considered. 3. these salamander species may divert their living habitat to other places such as jungles and the like. 208-观点说明型－扩大再生产的市场调研 The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company. "Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary." Understanding of the topic: Position: Construction of new generating plants should not be necessary. Reasons: 1). We anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly based on the following: a). Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. b). New technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. 2). Our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs 简要翻译： 建新的电厂不需要。因为三家电厂在过去的 20 年里都满足了我们的需求，而我们的用电总 量有可能不会上升并有希望会小幅下降。几项最近的调查显示人们越来越希望保持能源， 而制造商的家用电器也比十年前节电能力提高了两倍。另外新的技术使家庭隔缘更好，日 光照射等也使得家庭供暖得用电需求会下降。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.homeowners already have refrigerators and air conditioners are not glad to replace them with the new ones since these devices cost them again. homeowners have not had refrigerators and air conditoners now bought the news devices certainly increase the whole electricity usage. 2.More electronic devices other than refrigerators and air conditioners are applied to home use during the 20 years. 3.the generating plants build 30 years ago are unale to provie electriciy efficientlly due to malfunctions caused by their old ages and less developed techonologies. 2． 1. the reason why people conserve energy may just be that there is a increasing expenditure in home energy. 2. beside electricity used families, electricity used for industrial should never be neglect. 3. energy-efficient is not equal to energy-saving, since efficient only mean these appliance can do more work using the same energy. 4. electric generating plants used to met our needs does not mean it will meet our needs in the future, since new factories keep erecting up, and population keep increasing. 209－问题解决/比较引论－公司领导人更换 The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company. "In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably." Understanding of the topic: Proposal: We should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. Reason: In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Solution: In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry Reason: Under the leadership of Rosa Winnings, Starlight Jewelry's profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Fact: We will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving Justification: It will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably. 简要翻译： 我们应任命 R，并要求 P 辞职。因为尽管 R 的薪水是 P 的两倍，但他会使我们的利润迅速 的上升。而在过去 3 个季度里，在现任总裁 P 的领导下，我们的利润下降明显。R 现在使 S 珠宝店的总裁，这家公司的利润在过去几年里一直急剧增加。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. different companies, different employees, different policies, different range of business, different salary systems and endless others should be taken into consideration. 2. maybe the drop is caused by the latent danger imposed by PS's predecessor. 3. macroenvironment such as economy, political policies, GDP, and the like should be valued. 4. PS may execute his informative reform in company, thus in the short period like three quarters the profit is likely to decrease. However, revenue would soar up quickly after the transformation. 2． 1: No evidence shows Rosa will come to FTC even it pays her twice salary . since FTC is now in some problems, Rosa will certainly consider the issue more carefully. 2:the arguer accounts all evils to PS, in fact: a. there is poor cooperation atmosphere in FTC, which made PS can not carry out her policy efficiently. b. before PS joined FTC, it had already begin to show a decrease tendency.on the contrary, it is quite possible that PS has alleviate this tendency. 3: the arguer contribute all good to RW, in fact: a. before RW joined SJ, SJ had already begin to show its increasing tendency. b.SJ had more efficient staff. 4: did not even mention the status about SJ, it is also a toy company? what if it is a agriculture company or something far from toy manufacturing ? what if RW can not suit the job in managing toy industry? 210-观点说明型－生产/机器人与人 The following is a letter to the editor of a news magazine. "Clearly, the successful use of robots on missions to explore outer space in the past 20 years demonstrates that robots could be increasingly used to perform factory work more effectively, efficiently, and profitably than human factory workers. The use of robots in factories would offer several advantages. First, robots never get sick, so absenteeism would be reduced. Second, robots do not make mistakes, so factories would increase their output. Finally, the use of robots would also improve the morale of factory workers, since factory work can be so boring that many workers would be glad to shift to more interesting kinds of tasks." Understanding of the topic: Position: Robots could be increasingly used to perform factory work more effectively, efficiently, and profitably than human factory workers Reasons: 1). The successful use of robots on missions to explore outer space in the past 20 years demonstrates that 2). Robots never get sick, so absenteeism would be reduced 3). The use of robots would also improve the morale of factory workers, since factory work can be so boring that many workers would be glad to shift to more interesting kinds of tasks. 简要翻译： 机器人探索外空间在过去 20 年里的成功使用，表明机器人在工厂里的更多使用能比工人更 好，更有效，利润更多。因为它有几个好处：第一，机器人不得病，所以旷工会减少；第 二，机器人不会犯错，所以产量能上升；最后，机器人的使用还会提高工作的士气，因为 工厂工作很枯燥，工人会愿意换去做其他更有意思的活。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the successful use of robots on missions to explore outer space means little in its performing factory works.(factory works are different from the work in outer space and factory works differ from each other greatly according to different factory.) 2. the advantage pointed out by the arguer are all questionable a. the robots may get malfunction. b. The output of a factory is related with the productivity and the number of workers rather than the number of mistakes. c. Shifting from kinds of tasks may reduce the productivity because of the loss of proficiency in tasks. 2． 1: a. first robots never gets sick-----> but robots get malfunctions. b. sencond, robots do not make mistakes ------>but robots never works accelerate and creatively . c. finally, the use of robots would also improve the morale of factory workers since blar blar....----------> such interesting vanishes soon after they get used to robots. and more workers face the risk of being fired. the morale of factory workers will decrease rather than increase 2: robots being able to exploring outer space does not ensure it can handles the facotry work as well: a. robots needs certain softwares. the space softwares used in space exploring can not be applied to facotry industies. b. robots can not also handle all factory works while a human being can handle several work at same time, eg. accounting, security guard, helping other workers when finishing one's own job. c. robots cost lot. 3: some factory need not robots at all, the job is much easier and simpler that the automachines and human can already handle well. 211－观点说明型－教育就业 The following appeared in a memorandum to faculty from the academic vice president of Waymarsh University. "So that we can better accomplish Waymarsh University's academic goals, we should adopt the job-opportunity (job-op) program offered at Plateau Technical College and strongly encourage all students at Waymarsh to participate in it. The success of the job-op program at Plateau is evident: over the past two years, more than 75% of the freshmen at Plateau have enrolled in the optional job-op program. Moreover, at Plateau, the grades of job-op students are consistently higher than those of other students, 90% of the job-op students receive job offers within a month after their graduation, and most former job-op students report much success in their careers." Understanding of the topic: Proposal: So that we can better accomplish Waymarsh University's academic goals, we should adopt the job-opportunity (job-op) program offered at Plateau Technical College and strongly encourage all students at Waymarsh to participate in it. Reasons: 1). Over the past two years, more than 75% of the freshmen at Plateau have enrolled in the optional job-op program. 2). At Plateau, the grades of job-op students are consistently higher than those of other students 3). 90% of the job-op students receive job offers within a month after their graduation 4). Most former job-op students report much success in their careers 简要翻译： 为了更好地完成 W 大学的学术目标，我们应该采用 P 校提供的工作机会项目，并强烈鼓励 W 大学的学生参加。P 校的这个项目的成功是有证据的：过去两年里 P 校 75％以上的一年 级学生都参加了这个可选择的项目。而 P 校这个项目的毕业生比其他学生的分数高很多， 而且 90％毕业后一个月内就拿到了工作 offer，大多数以前这个项目的学生也报告说职业生 涯很成功。 推荐提纲： 1． 1 : 75% freshmen..... , do universities only have freshmen? 2 : 90% received job offers does not follow they get the job.. jjjooobbbb oooffffeeerrrrsss.!!!! not job ! moreover, what kind of job they got ? cleaning the streets ? 3: false anology between WU and PTC. WU might be famous for their researching ability while PTC is famous for their cheap labors. 4 no one like to report failures in their careers... 2． 1. false comparison of two universities. 2. many freshmen may drop out the program in the sophomore year. 3. what about the job quality of those 90% students? are they get better job than those who do not attend the program? 4. are the job-op students' success is far better than those who do not take the program? 212-观点说明型－市场策略调整/销售/广告 The following appeared in a memorandum from the new president of the Patriot car manufacturing company. "In the past, the body styles of Patriot cars have been old-fashioned, and our cars have not sold as well as have our competitors' cars. But now, since many regions in this country report rapid increases in the numbers of newly licensed drivers, we should be able to increase our share of the market by selling cars to this growing population. Thus, we should discontinue our oldest models and concentrate instead on manufacturing sporty cars. We can also improve the success of our marketing campaigns by switching our advertising to the Youth Advertising agency, which has successfully promoted the country's leading soft drink." Understanding of the topic: Background: In the past, the body styles of Patriot cars have been old-fashioned, and our cars have not sold as well as have our competitors' cars. Current Situation: But now, since many regions in this country report rapid increases in the numbers of newly licensed drivers, we should be able to increase our share of the market by selling cars to this growing population. Proposal: 1). On production: Thus, we should discontinue our oldest models and concentrate instead on manufacturing sporty cars. 2). On Advertisement: We can also improve the success of our marketing campaigns by switching our advertising to the Youth Advertising agency Reason: Youth Advertising agency has successfully promoted the country's leading soft drink. 简要翻译： 我们应该停止最旧款的车型而集中制造运动型轿车，我们应该用 Y 广告公司。因为我们的 车型已经过时，车也没有对手卖的好。不过现在很多地区新拿驾照的人数迅速上升，我们 应该可能通过向这个增长部分的人群售车以提高利润。另外，我们还可能用 Y 广告公司促 进销售的成功，他们已成功地推销了这个国家最主要地软饮料。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the car of P may sell fairly well even if not so well as its competitors. 2. even if its sale decrease, the reason may not lie on the fashion of the car.(structure, conformability, price, energy efficiency etc ) 3. the taste of the newly licensed drivers is unknown. 4. the advertise Youth Advertising agency may not be suitable to chose for car advertising, even though it promoted the country's leading soft drink. 2． 1 YA agency is just successful for soft drink , no evidence shows that it is good at car AD. too. moreover,since ad. is only an assistant methods to marketing campaigns, even YA can hanle well, P car might not automatically succeed in markets. 2. no evidence shows newly licensed drivers are more likely to choose sporty cars. the arguer simply treats new fashion style cars as sporty cars. however in fact, sporty cars also have old fashion and new fashion. 3. the increased in newly licensed drivers does not ensure there is a increase in demand of new cars. in fact, newly licensed drivers are not familiar with driving so that they choose the lease cars or borrowing cars from their friends. 213-观点说明型－市场策略调整 The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Armchair Video, a chain of video rental stores "Because of declining profits, we must reduce operating expenses at Armchair Video's ten video rental stores. Raising prices is not a good option, since we are famous for our special bargains. Instead, we should reduce our operating hours. Last month our store in downtown Marston reduced its hours by closing at 6:00 P.M. rather than 9:00 P.M. and reduced its overall inventory by no longer stocking any film released more than two years ago. Since we have received very few customer complaints about these new policies, we should now adopt them at all other Armchair Video stores as our best strategies for improving profits." Understanding of the topic: Proposal: Because of declining profits, we must reduce operating expenses at Armchair Video's ten video rental stores. To be specific, we should reduce our operating hours rather than raising prices Reason: Raising prices is not a good option, since we are famous for our special bargains. Activity: Last month our store in downtown Marston reduced its hours by closing at 6:00 P.M. rather than 9:00 P.M. and reduced its overall inventory by no longer stocking any film released more than two years ago. Conclusion: We should now adopt them at all other Armchair Video stores as our best strategies for improving profits. Reason: Since we have received very few customer complaints about these new policies 简要翻译： 在全 A 的十家店里缩短营业时间和减少库存是得高利润得最好办法。因为利润的下降我们 必须减少十家音像租赁店的开支。而提高价格不是一个好办法，因为我们是以特价闻名。 相反过去一个月我们在 M 的店缩短了三个小时的营业时间和整个库存，收到的抱怨很少。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. whether reduced hours result in an increase in M's profit is not known. 2. although the policy of reduced hours does work, it cannot be applied presumptuously to other stores due to the differences in geographic location, population density, customers' likes and dislikes and so on. 3. to reduce the decline of profit does not necessarily require the stores to reduce operating expenses. They could make profit by promotion, ads, reducing prices and the like. 2． 1. Reducing operating hours and overall inventory might hold the declining profits but not efficient in improving profits. the arguer simply equals the former as the evidence to prove the latter, which is unfounded. 2. few complaints about these new policies does not ensure they are satisfied with these policies, in fact: a. a lot of consumers turn to other video rental stores instead of complaining to AV, b. major consumers will not complain even they were not satisfied with the services. they prefer silence since the renting of video tapes are not something so important. 3. hasty generalization: howsoever "adopt them at all other AV stores" is a perfunctory decision before the arguer can prove that these AV stores are similiar in large scope. 214－比较引论型－教育投入 In each city in the region of Treehaven, the majority of the money spent on government-run public school education comes from taxes that each city government collects. The region's cities differ, however, in the value they place on public education. For example, Parson City typically budgets twice as much money per year as Blue City does for its public schools-even though both cities have about the same number of residents. It seems clear, therefore, that Parson City residents care more about public school education than do Blue City residents. Understanding of the topic: Background: In each city in the region of Treehaven, the majority of the money spent on government-run public school education comes from taxes that each city government collects. Situation: The region's cities differ, however, in the value they place on public education. Parson City typically budgets twice as much money per year as Blue City does for its public schools-even though both cities have about the same number of residents. Conclusion: It seems clear, therefore, that Parson City residents care more about public school education than do Blue City residents. 简要翻译： P 城的居民比 B 城的更关心公立学校的教育。P 城每年拨到公立学校的财政经费是 B 城的 两倍，尽管两个城市的居民人数相同。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. maybe the revenue from taxes of B is far less than that of P. thus result in a difference of their allocation to education. Perhaps the public emphasis is much higher in B than P. because the portion of money allocated to education is much larger than P. 2. fails to mention the situation of education in two cities. a.children in P are much more than that in B. b.situation of the schools in P may worse than B, and need money to improve. 3. governments' emphasis on education does not bespeak that of the public's. 2． 1. the taxes collect by the two government is unknown. 2. the number of schools in the two cities is not mentioned. 3. spending more money does not equal to more care 4. the amount money spend on education is determined by the government, it may not reflect the will of the residents. 216-观点说明型－居住环境/市场推广 The following appeared in a magazine article about planning for retirement. "Because of its spectacular natural beauty and consistent climate, Clearview should be a top choice for anyone seeking a place to retire. As a bonus, housing costs in Clearview have fallen significantly during the past year, and real estate taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns. Nevertheless, Clearview's mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and public services. Retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they grow older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national average." Understanding of the topic: Position: Because of its spectacular natural beauty and consistent climate, Clearview should be a top choice for anyone seeking a place to retire. Reasons: 1). Housing costs in Clearview have fallen significantly during the past year 2). Real estate taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns 3). Clearview's mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and public services. 4). Retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they grow older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national average. 简要翻译： C 是人们找地方退休的首选。因为当地风光优美，气候常年稳定，而作为退休金消费，住 房在当地的费用去年也有很显著的下降，房地产税收一直比隔壁几个镇低。不过，市长许 诺了新的项目来改善学校、街道和公共服务设施。退休在 C 还有好的健康服务，因为这儿 医生的数目比全国平均水平高。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. consistent climate does not equal to balmy ones: may be consistently inclement. 2. promises does not equal to real situation. It need time and effort to be carried out. 3. the technique and knowledge of the physicians are more important than the number of them. 2． 1. last year's decrease in housing does not mean successive decrease in future. it does not mean it is the lowest housing price all over the country. 2. estate taxes lower than neighboring towns does not mean the taxes are lower than any other towns all over the countries. 3. fails to mention the quality of these physicians. And still there may be other towns whose physicians are far more than C's. 4. promises do not equate to practice. 217--观点说明型-市场推销 The following appeared in a brochure promoting the purchase of local franchises for a national chain of gyms. "Now is the time to invest in a Power-Lift Gym franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trends: Power-Lift Gyms are already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year's sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million, and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit." Understanding of the topic: Position: Now is the time to invest in a Power-Lift Gym franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Reasons: 1). Power-Lift Gyms are already popular among customers in 500 locations 2). National surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness 3). Last year's sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million 4). Purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled Conclusion: Investing now in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit. 简要翻译： 投资 P 的连锁经营权能保证很快盈利。因为有这样的趋势：P 已经在五百个地方的消费者 中很流行了，而且全国性的调查显示对减肥和体形健康的越来越关注。另外，去年在个人 健康方面的书和杂志一共卖了五千万，而家庭健身设备几乎翻了一倍。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. popular in 500 locations does not mean in all places. 2. people can take other means to alleviate their weight and physical problems. 3. sales of books cannot justify the need for exercises. Moreover, does 50 million a moderate amount or a decreased one than last year? 4. it is likely that family will prefer buying their own exercise equipment rather than going to gyms frequently. 2． 1.There are PL Gyms in 500 locations already; perhaps that is enough to meet the customers' needs.. To blindly open more might not earn great profits. And the actual profits of the 500 locations haven't been mentioned. 2.Weight loss and physical fitness can be achieved by other means than going to the gym, such as jogging, swimming, ball playing, and other exercises which are less dull than gym work-out. 3.Sales number on publications on personal health doesn't ensure people would turn to a gym either. Personal health includes so many areas, and people might show more interest in a balanced diet and out-door activities. 4.The data that purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled seems contradictory to the conclusion. The more people are equipped at home, the less they would go to a gym. 218-问题解决型-市场定位/调整 The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company. "Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase." Understanding of the topic: Situation: Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Reason: Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Solution: Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Supporting Ideas: 1). Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. 2). Since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase. 简要翻译： H 新的玩具销售也会上升。因为家庭的收入在上升，而父母越来越担心小孩子的暴力问题 以及给孩子好的教育，所以我们并停止所有动作玩具的销售并只集中在教育玩具上。其他 几家玩具公司已经开始推出教育玩具而且销售已被报告在去年增长了 200％。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. what parents want does not equal what children want, and parents always coddle the children by buying what they want. 2. the sale declination of FF does not demonstrate that there will be a decrease in all action toys. 3. 200percent is not persuasive in giving any useful information as the initial sales remains unknown. 4. other flaws such as representative of survey and false analogy which frequently appear in the argument of ets. 2． 1. the decrease may be caused not by parents' worries about youthful violence. Other factors such as the saturated market demands, decrease in toys' quality, weak promotion and so on. 2. false comparison to other toy companies due to differences in management, financial situation, difficulty in diverting products and so on. 3. not all action toys are violent in nature and no evidence show that their profit would shrink. And also does not justify the exclusively product on educational toys-diversity in products is important for a manufacturing company. 4. increase in family income does not mean increase urge for toys. 220--比较引论型-电视与平面媒体 The following appeared in an article in a magazine for writers. "A recent study showed that in describing a typical day's conversation, people make an average of 23 references to watching television and only 1 reference to reading fiction. This result suggests that, compared with the television industry, the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. Therefore, people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media." Understanding of the topic: Reasons: 1). A recent study showed that in describing a typical day's conversation, people make an average of 23 references to watching television and only 1 reference to reading fiction. 2). This result suggests that, compared with the television industry, the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. Conclusion: Therefore, people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media. 简要翻译： 想当作家的人应该获得为电视写作的训练经验而不是印刷媒体。因为最近一份研究显示人 们日常的谈话平均引用电视和小说的比例为 23 : 1。这个结果表示，与电视产业相比，出版 和书的销售利润可能都在下降。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Making reference to watching television does not mean they watch time television more than fictions.(may be the details of television are more comprehensive to each other compared to those of the fictions. Or in day's conversation people tend to talk about news, events happened in local area they are less likely to obtain these information from fiction ) 2. books include many kinds besides fiction. Books of special major is indispensable for people who dedicate in certain area. 3. the objective of writing is not merely money, people need to choose their career according to their interests and telants. 2． 1. fiction = publishing and bookselling industries ? 2. 23 VS 1 is totally unfair since: a. TV are more broad spread than books . b. day's conversation does not prove any thing. people are more likely to pay attention to the direct and recent issues which bring TV issues more discussion in day conversation. c. even there are few reference to reading fiction, it can not follow that publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline, since no evidence shows the absolute numbers of people reading fictions drops. 3. in fact, a lot of book stories are bringed into TV shows. these people do not intentionally write for television. 221--比较引论型--教育/师资 The following appeared in the editorial section of a student newspaper. "In a recent survey, most students who were studying beginning Russian gave higher course-evaluation ratings to classes taught by non-native Russian speakers than to classes taught by native Russian speakers. The reason that the non-native speakers were better teachers of Russian is easy to see: the non-native speakers learned Russian later in life themselves, and so they have a better understanding of how the language can be taught effectively. Therefore, in order to improve instruction for all languages and also save money, our university should hire non-native speakers as language instructors instead of trying to find and recruit native speakers." Understanding of the topic: Background: In a recent survey, most students who were studying beginning Russian gave higher course-evaluation ratings to classes taught by non-native Russian speakers than to classes taught by native Russian speakers. Reason: the non-native speakers learned Russian later in life themselves, and so they have a better understanding of how the language can be taught effectively. Conclusion: Therefore, in order to improve instruction for all languages and also save money, our university should hire non-native speakers as language instructors instead of trying to find and recruit native speakers. 简要翻译： 为提高语言教育并省钱，我们大学应该雇佣非母语者而不是招收新的母语者，因为最近的 调查中，大多刚开始学习俄语的学生里，由母语不是俄语的人教出来的比母语是俄语的人 教出来的分数高。这个原因很明显：因为非母语的人是自己在后来的生活中学会的，所以 他们更了解一门语言应该怎么教才更有效果。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. beginning Russian is the lowest level in whole Russian language courses, the students who begin to learn Russian give the native Russian lower rating is beacuse they can not understand the Russian speakers well or have problem in understand native Russian tones. however, in the higher classes, the native Russian teachers are sure to surpass the non-native teachers. 2.hasty generalization ,even the native Russian teachers are not as good as non-native Russian teachers, there is no evidence shows that all non-native speakers are superior than native speakers, it is quite possible a haphazard . 3.no evidence shows hire non-native speakers saves money. 2． 1. no evidence show the change in teachers will save money. 2. a comprehensive survey should be made. Besides course-evaluation ratings, other factors such as capabilities in talking in Russian with others-which is the ultimate aim of learning a language-should be considered. 3. the factor of students' abilities should by no means obliterated. 222-问题解决型-教育就业 The following article appeared in a recent issue of a college newspaper. "Among all students who graduated from Hooper University over the past five years, more physical science majors than social science majors found permanent jobs within a year of graduation. In a survey of recent Hooper University graduates, most physical science majors said they believed that the prestige of Hooper University's physical science programs helped them significantly in finding a job. In contrast, social science majors who found permanent employment attributed their success to their own personal initiative. Therefore, to ensure that social science majors find permanent jobs, Hooper University should offer additional social science courses and hire several new faculty members who already have national reputations in the social sciences." Understanding of the topic: Background: Among all students who graduated from Hooper University over the past five years, more physical science majors than social science majors found permanent jobs within a year of graduation. Situation: A. In a survey of recent Hooper University graduates, most physical science majors said they believed that the prestige of Hooper University's physical science programs helped them significantly in finding a job. B. In contrast, social science majors who found permanent employment attributed their success to their own personal initiative. Solution: Therefore, to ensure that social science majors find permanent jobs, Hooper University should offer additional social science courses and hire several new faculty members who already have national reputations in the social sciences. 简要翻译： 为保证社会学系的学生找到终生职业，H 大学应该再多提供社会科学课程并雇佣几位新的 已经在全国该领域有名望的教师。因为过去五年里 H 大学有更多的理科学生比社会学系的 学生在毕业后一年里找到了终身职业。在一份对毕业生的最近调查中，大多数理科生都说 他们相信 H 在理科课程的名望在很大程度上帮助了他们找到工作。而相反，社会学系找到 终生职业的人把这种成功归结于他们自己的个人判断。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. whether or not a job can be got is determined not only by the ability of students, but more importantly by the job market. 2. the situation of graduates in merely one year after graduation is unpersuasive. Time range should be enlarged to three or more years to find the precise situation of the graduates. 3. merely by adding more courses and new faculty members do not necessarily hone the ability of social science students efficaciously. 2． 1 the percentage of physical science majors and social science majors in founding permanent jobs. 2. Permanent jobs do not mean jobs which satisfied the graduates. 3. Offering additional courses and teacher of reputation may have no effect in helping the students in finding a good job. 224-问题解决型-产品销售 The following appeared in a corporate planning memo at ABC Cereal Company, the makers of Better Bran cereal. "Sales of Better Bran have declined in recent years, for reasons that management has now identified. First, Better Bran is a cereal with high sugar content, and recent research studies have found that most consumers say they are concerned about the amount of sugar added to their breakfast cereal. Second, the price of Better Bran has increased by 5 percent in each of the last three years. Therefore, to increase our company's profits we need to reduce the amount of sugar in Better Bran and lower Better Bran's price." Understanding of the topic: Situation: Sales of Better Bran have declined in recent years Reasons: 1). Better Bran is a cereal with high sugar content, and recent research studies have found that most consumers say they are concerned about the amount of sugar added to their breakfast cereal. 2). the price of Better Bran has increased by 5 percent in each of the last three years. Solution: to increase our company's profits we need to reduce the amount of sugar in Better Bran and lower Better Bran's price. 简要翻译： 为提高公司利润，我们需要降低食品中的糖含量以及食品的价格。因为 BB 的销售最近几年 一直在下滑。原因有：第一，BB 糖含量高，而最近的研究发现大多数的消费者说他们关心 谷类早餐中的糖含量；第二，过去三年里 BB 的价格每年升高 5％。 推荐提纲： 1． the two reasons provided by arguer are both unconvincing to elicit why sales of BB have declined in recent years. 1. the first reason is open to doubt: the research studies have only stated that consumers concerned about the amount of sugar added to their breakfast cereal.. not dinners, super and snacks, and no evidence shows BB is mainly sold for breakfast, in fact cereal breakfast is also the only one kind of breakfast. a lot of people do not even have cereal in breakfast. the arguer commits a fallacy when he treated the cereal breakfast as the sources from which BB gains it major profits. 2.the price of BB has increased by 5% is very very natural since a lot of commodities' price increases due to the increased quality and increased consumers' buying power . 3. on the contrary , there are many other factors might be determinative elements that caused the decline in BB. a: the consumers do not favor the taste of BB any longer, in fact, in modern society quite a lot traditional food company bankrupted due to their out-dated features. b. some powerful competitors emerge. 2． 1. other factors such decrease in quality and quantity, unwholesome leadership, weak promotion and the like may work. 2. what 'concerned' denotes? The inclination for more sugar or dislike of it? 3. no reactions of consumers about the 5 percent increase in prices are mentioned. 225--观点说明型-政府选举 The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper. "During her three years in office, Governor Riedeburg has shown herself to be a worthy leader. Since she took office, crime has decreased, the number of jobs created per year has doubled, and the number of people choosing to live in our state has increased. These trends are likely to continue if she is reelected. In addition, Ms. Riedeburg has promised to take steps to keep big companies here, thereby providing jobs for any new residents. Anyone who looks at Ms. Riedeburg's record can tell that she is the best-qualified candidate for governor." Understanding of the topic: Position: Governor Riedeburg is the best-qualified candidate for governor and should be re-elected Reasons: 1). Since she took office, crime has decreased, the number of jobs created per year has doubled, and the number of people choosing to live in our state has increased. 2). These trends are likely to continue if she is reelected. 3). Ms. Riedeburg has promised to take steps to keep big companies here, thereby providing jobs for any new residents 简要翻译： R 是最合适的州长候选人。因为她在任的三年里，R 证明了自己是个有价值的领导者，犯 罪下降，每年新的工作忌讳翻倍，越来越多的人选择在我们州居住。如果她连任，这样的 趋势将继续。另外，R 还许诺会采取措施留住几家大公司，这样能给新的居民提供工作。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. no evidence show the prosperity is due to the leadership of R,( it may be the aftereffect of former governor. Or a national situation which took place regardless the governor. ) 2. no evidence show that keep big companies will provide additional jobs for new residents.(the employee may already surpass the capacity of the company.) 3. to illustrate that R is a best qualified candidate, the arguer need to provide information about other candicates. 2． 1. a comprehensive evaluation about the effectiveness of R's leadership should be conducted, rather than aspects of decreased crimes, job increase and residents increase. 2. no concrete relationship is shown between the improvements and R's leadership. These improvement may induced by other factors such as developing economy, new national policies and the like. 3. no evidence show that this trends will not continue after other take office. 4. promises does not represent actions. 226－观点说明型－商业运作、扩大再生产 The following appeared as part of a memo from the manager of an automobile manufacturing company. "Because the demand for our automobiles is expected to increase dramatically, we need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible in order to continue to thrive. Our marketing projections indicate that 80 million people will want to buy our automobiles, yet our existing plant can only produce 40 million automobiles. The new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, with workers from our existing site rotating responsibilities, until an operational staff can be trained. A major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time rotating strategy when it opened its new plant five years ago." Understanding of the topic: Position: Because the demand for our automobiles is expected to increase dramatically, we need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible in order to continue to thrive Reason: 1). our marketing projections indicate that 80 million people will want to buy our automobiles, yet our existing plant can only produce 40 million automobiles. Solution: The new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, with workers from our existing site rotating responsibilities, until an operational staff can be trained. Reason: A major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time rotating strategy when it opened its new plant five years ago. 简要翻译： 我们需要尽快开一家新分厂以继续繁荣，新的厂可以采用以兼职为基础，用现在的工人轮 岗，直到一个可操作的员工训练完。因为市场记录显示有 8 千万人要买我们的汽车，但我 们现有的厂子只能生产 4 千万。五年前一家飞机制造商用这种兼职轮岗的方式取得了极大 的成功。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. airplane industry and car industry is not likely the same in their process of manufacturing products. 2. the will of people is not the same as the actions of them. A large portion of them may be restricted due to their economical situations. 3. when will the demand increase? A year later, or a decade later? There is no justification for that company to open a plant as soon as possible. And it is well-known that more hasty, more mistakes. 2． 1. No evidence shows the automobiles are in dire need, so it is presumptuous to say the company needs to open a new maufacturing plant as soon as possible. 2. whether the marketing projections are reliable enough is open to doubt, questionnaire does not equate to contract, it is possible that these people who is under survey also interest in several brands of automobiles other than the one produced by this company. 3. part-time based work may cause some side-effects, also a critical flaw emerges from the analogy between the company and a major airplane manufactory which used the part-time rotating strategy five years ago. 227－观点说明型－城市管理、政府政策 The following appeared as an editorial in a local newspaper. "In order to attract visitors to Central Plaza downtown and to return the plaza to its former glory, the city should prohibit skateboarding there and instead allow skateboarders to use an area in Monroe Park. At Central Plaza, skateboard users are about the only people one sees now, and litter and defaced property have made the plaza unattractive. In a recent survey of downtown merchants, the majority supported a prohibition on skateboarding in the plaza. Clearly, banning skateboarding in Central Plaza will make the area a place where people can congregate for fun or for relaxation." Understanding of the topic: Position: In order to attract visitors to Central Plaza downtown and to return the plaza to its former glory, the city should prohibit skateboarding there and instead allow skateboarders to use an area in Monroe Park. Reasons: 1). At Central Plaza, skateboard users are about the only people one sees now, and litter and defaced property have made the plaza unattractive. 2). In a recent survey of downtown merchants, the majority supported a prohibition on skateboarding in the plaza. In conclusion, banning skateboarding in Central Plaza will make the area a place where people can congregate for fun or for relaxation. 简要翻译： 禁止滑冰 C 广场能成为人们可以聚会和放松的场所。因为现在 C 广场，滑冰的人几乎是唯 一能看到的使用者，而且纸屑垃圾使得广场很难看。最近的一项对市中心商人的调查，大 多数人支持对滑冰的禁止，而且滑冰的人可以去 M 公园的场地。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.fails to establish the causal relationship between the plaza losing attraction and skaterboardings. in fact, it quite possilbe because of the depression of plaza losing its tourists that so many sakteboarders choose this place for skateboarding since it is good place for sports where there are not many people. 2.No evidence shows the litter and defaced property are caused by skateboarders. 3. mechants opinion is not representative. there have their own vested interest in business, eg. a. prohibition skateboarding can decrease the rush in front of their shops b. they can lanch the new sports bussiness 4. allow skateboarders to use an area in Monroe Park instead is problematic. 2． 1. defaced property may be the result of the plaza's mismanagement, letting the garbage untouched for months. 2. dislikes after prohibition of skateboarding may cause enormous negative consequences. Skateboarders may pour their complaints to their relatives and friends, disparaging the plaza. Thus how could the plaza attracting more people? 3. survey about local merchants is unreliable since they only care about their chances to profit. 228－观点说明型－城市与郊区 The following appeared in a newsletter from a political organization. "In order to promote economic growth in the city, city residents should vote 'yes' on the state government's proposal to build a new expressway linking the outlying suburbs directly to the city center. A direct link to the city center will enable downtown businesses to receive deliveries more frequently, so that downtown retailers will no longer run out of stock and city manufacturers will not be affected by shortages of materials. Booming businesses will attract qualified workers from all over the state, workers who will be able to take advantage of the new expressway to commute to work in our city. In addition to these advantages, hundreds of workers will be employed to build the expressway, further stimulating the local economy!" Understanding of the topic: Position: In order to promote economic growth in the city, city residents should vote 'yes' on the state government's proposal to build a new expressway linking the outlying suburbs directly to the city center. Reasons: 1). A direct link to the city center will enable downtown businesses to receive deliveries more frequently, so that downtown retailers will no longer run out of stock and city manufacturers will not be affected by shortages of materials. 2). Booming businesses will attract qualified workers from all over the state, workers who will be able to take advantage of the new expressway to commute to work in our city. 3). hundreds of workers will be employed to build the expressway, further stimulating the local economy 简要翻译： 市里的居民应该赞成政府建新高速连接市中心和郊区的建议。因为这可以使市中心更经常 地收到送货，这样市里地零售商就不会再缺货，制造商也不会被材料短缺困扰。繁荣地商 业会吸引全州好的工人，他们可以享受新高速上下班出入我们的成好似。另外，雇佣几百 名工人修高速，更进一步刺激当地经济。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. the space used to build the expressway may exist many industries and shops. Razing their original locus of business will undermine the morale of people in the city. They may shift their business to another city. 2. no evidence show that downtown retailers are frequently run out of stock and manufacturers are constantly plagued by shortage of material. And also no evidence show that amelioration in these aspects will stimulate economy. 3. no evidence show that workers will take the new expressway to commute to work. Their current way may be so convenient and there is always a repugnance to change in people's nature. 4. no relationship between the employment of workers and stimulation to local economy. And economy does not solely consist of the listed aspects in the argument. 2． 1. No evidence shows that the current trasportation and communication can not meet the demand. Moreover, no evidence shows there is need for expressway since not all business requires immediate communication. t 2. No evidence shows the bussinesses in loca region will attract qualified workers form all over the state only because there is expressway, if it is ture, we can simply build expressway to boom economy in any region. moreover, no evidence shows workers prefer commuting to work to immigrating in this region instead. 3. hundreds of worker will be employed to build the expressway does not ensure stimulating the local economy : a. building expressway is only a temporary project ,after the complete of the expressway these worker still have trouble in refind a job. b. where are these hundreds of workers coming from remains unknown, it is doubtable that local region can provide so many construction workers, moreover, the quality of local construction company remains unknown, so that it is quite possible that these workers are form other regions. 4. the suggestion is conducted by political organization iteself to win the vote which makes its aim open to doubt. in fact, the arguer relies on wrong authority, economists should be a better individuals to turn to. 230--比较引论型/结论说明型-城市规划 The following appeared in a recommendation from the planning department of the city of Transopolis. "Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased. To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a declining residential area on the opposite side of the city. Since some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available." Understanding of the topic: Position: To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a declining residential area on the opposite side of the city. Reasons: 1). Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased. 2). Since some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available. 简要翻译： 为进一步搞活城市，我们应该在城市的居民正在减少的城市另一边采用同样的行动（把地 用作工业） 。因为那儿地一些房子和公寓目前没人住，这个计划需要地备用房已经有了。十 年前，作为整个郊区搞活计划地一部分，T 城把高速边地一些低质量房用于工业。结构建 了很多工厂，犯罪率也下降了，整个城市地财税收入也上升了。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. no causal relation between the adaptation and the change in that area. a. other reasons may account for the declination in crime rates such as a newly enacted law. b. Other reasons may explain for the increase in tax revenue such as a higher rate of tax rate or large number of immigration. c. What about other area which did not take the adaptation? They may have similar experience in economy and public security. 2. false analogy: a. Evidence of ten years ago have little worthiness for today's construction.（economy situation, morality of people, number of population may have changed greatly during these ten years） b. The house in former adaptation was substandard, while the current houses and apartment may be of high quantity and expensive. And it is not economical to pull them down or convert them to other usage. c. the area adapt ten years ago was near a freeway, which may play a significant role in the area's prosperity while the arguer didn't mention the situation of current area, is it convenient in transportation? 2． 1, hasty generalization: the policy for substandard housing can not be applied to houses and apartments in opposite side of the city: a. substandard housing will be sure to need renewal program sooner or later. however,no evidence shows the houses and apartments in opposite side of the city are also substandard. b. the region of these two housing might be quite different: the latter might be famous about parks and natural scenes. the construction of the factories will surely destory these benefit. 2. no evidence shows the declined crime rate are caused by these factories. a. several new law clauses has been enacted b. the local police forces has been increased 3. no evidence shows the increased tax rate are caused by these factories, in fact: a. newly constructed factories mainly get lower taxes, b. the revenues mainly come from other companies. 4. "currently unoccupied" is not a convincing reason to make the displacement. currently unoccupied does not mean always unoccupied, these houses might be newly constructed and waiting for future usage. 232--结论说明型--市场/广告 The following appeared in a memo from the sales manager of Eco-Power, a company that manufactures tools and home appliances. "Many popular radio and television commercials use memorable tunes and song lyrics to call attention to the products being advertised. Indeed, a recent study of high school students showed that 85 percent could easily recognize the tunes used to advertise leading soft drinks and fast-food restaurants. Despite our company's extensive advertising in magazines during the past year, sales of our home appliances declined. Therefore, to boost company profits, we should now switch to advertisements featuring a distinctive song." Understanding of the topic: 背景介绍： Many popular radio and television commercials use memorable tunes and song lyrics to call attention to the products being advertised. Reasons: 1). a recent study of high school students showed that 85 percent could easily recognize the tunes used to advertise leading soft drinks and fast-food restaurants. 2). Despite our company's extensive advertising in magazines during the past year, sales of our home appliances declined. Therefore, to boost company profits, we should now switch to advertisements featuring a distinctive song. 简要翻译： 我们应该转为用有特点的广告歌。因为最近对于高中学生的调查显示他们中 85％的人很容 易的认出最流行的软饮料和快餐店的广告曲调。而我们公司过去几年在杂志上投放了大量 的广告，但销售却在下降。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. No evidence shows the sales fo EP declined because of their ad. in fact: a. the quality of EP's products declined. b.the depression of the whole economy 2. hasty generalization: the success of song in soft drinks and fast-food can not applied to home appliciances directly. a. home appliances cost more than soft drinks and fast-food, therefore consumers take more consideration before they choose products from one company. b. home appliances are bought-once products while fast-food and soft drinks makes repeated buying. therefore the song can be much helpfull to maintain their frequent consumers, however, no one will repeat buying home appliances at least in short times. if this really happens, the quality of products of this company is problematic. 3. reputation is easy to lose but hard to regain. even the songs works, it can not immediately boost the sales of EP. 2． 1.False analogy. Soft drinks and fast-food restaurants are different from home appliances in advertising. The former might be youth-oriented, while the latter housewives directed instead. 2.Though their tunes are easily recognizes, fail to mention whether the sales of soft drinks and fast foods are large. 3.many factors should be considered which lead to the sales decline. 1)Perhaps the appliances are out-dated in styles or in functions. 2)Perhaps they haven't hired an effective advertising company, which has nothing to do with songs or whatever. 4.. Fails to mention whether they would change the media of advertising. If the go on using magazine to advertise, any distinctive song cannot help a thing. 233--比较引论型-商业生产 The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a company that builds shopping malls throughout the country. "The surface of a section of Route 101, paved two years ago by McAdam Road Builders, is now badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. In another part of the state, a section of Route 66, paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition. Appian Roadways has recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery, and it has hired a new quality-control manager. Because of its superior work and commitment to quality, we should contract with Appian Roadways rather than McAdam Road Builders to construct the access roads for all our new shopping malls." Understanding of the topic: Reasons: Party A: The surface of a section of Route 101, paved two years ago by McAdam Road Builders, is now badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. Party B: In another part of the state, a section of Route 66, paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition. Besides, Appian Roadways has recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery, and it has hired a new quality-control manager. Therefore, Because of its superior work and commitment to quality, we should contract with Appian Roadways rather than McAdam Road Builders to construct the access roads for all our new shopping malls. 简要翻译： 我们应该和 A 签合同，建所有新商场的通道。因为他们的工作更好，质量有承诺。M 在两 年前铺的 101 道现在已经严重损坏，而 A 四年前铺的 66 道现在还挺好。A 现在买了新的机 器，而且还雇了新的经理。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. two roads built in different place hence have nothing comparable. a. the R101 may be in the center of a city and has many pedestrian and bicycles as well as automobile passing by every day and hence marred more quickly b. the underground soil of the area in which R101 is in is more soft and therefore more likely to have the road paved above cracked. 2. no evidence show that Appian is in good condition now. a. new paving machinery's effectiveness is not mentioned. Whether it could suit the ground throughout the country is unknown. b. new manager is not equal to good one. People all need a period for acclimatizing oneself to the new position. 3. the price of different company should be considered before the construction is carried out. 2． 1.false anology betwenn R101 and R66 a. R101 might be heavy loaded and be used mainly by heavy trucks which made the road easily cracked. on the contrary ,it is quite possible that because R66 is not a important road that AR are choosed , it might only be able to handle easy jobs. b. R101 is lack of renewing due to some reasons, though MARB has better consturction quality , the local government failed to renew the road, therefore after years R101 has more cracks. in this sense, the arguer should blame the government rather than MARB. 2.no evidence shows MRBA does not have these state-of-the-art paving machinery and experienced quality-control manage .moreover, since the quality-control manager is a "new" at least he/she is newcomer at AR,it is quite possible that he/she has not got accustomed in there and familiar with the local road situation. 3.hasty generalization: even AR did a good work in building R66, there is no evidence shows they can handle shopping malls as well, R66 is quite possible different from shopping malls, moreover, the arguer is unfair when he make a judgement on only one comparision. the other road build by MRBA is quite possibly much better than AR. 234--结论说明型/比较引论型-生活/健康 The following appeared in a newspaper feature story. "There is now evidence that the relaxed manner of living in small towns promotes better health and greater longevity than does the hectic pace of life in big cities. Businesses in the small town of Leeville report fewer days of sick leave taken by individual workers than do businesses in the nearby large city of Mason City. Furthermore, Leeville has only one physician for its one thousand residents, but in Mason City the proportion of physicians to residents is five times as high. And the average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Mason City residents. These findings suggest that people seeking longer and healthier lives should consider moving to small communities." Understanding of the topic: 1. Position: There is now evidence that the relaxed manner of living in small towns promotes better health and greater longevity than does the hectic pace of life in big cities. Reasons: 1). Businesses in the small town of Leeville report fewer days of sick leave taken by individual workers than do businesses in the nearby large city of Mason City. 2). Leeville has only one physician for its one thousand residents, but in Mason City the proportion of physicians to residents is five times as high. 3). average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Mason City residents. In conclusion, these findings suggest that people seeking longer and healthier lives should consider moving to small communities." 简要翻译： 想长寿和生活健康的人应该考虑搬到小社区去。因为小镇 L 每年每位工人报告的病假比隔 壁的大城市 M 少。另外 L 一千位居民只有一位医生，但 M 医生和居民的比例有五倍之高。 而且 L 居民的寿命也明显比 M 高。 推荐提纲： 1． False analogy as its main flaw: 1.Perhaps businesses in the small town of L have loose disciplines, so many workers are absent without asking for leaves, in other words, they fail to report. 2.Because it is a small town, L can't attract many physicians, so the number of physicians do not reflect the number of diseases. 3. As L is a small towns with small business, young people leave the town already for big cities for their personal development, so older residents remain here and constitute a higher average age. Mason city is large, and attract more young people. 2． 1.the evidence presented in the argument is not cogent enough to support the conclusion: a.days of sick leave just is not equal to days when people be in sick.it is possible that people in small towns would not like to have a rest when the health is bad contrast to people in big cities b. the higher proportion of physicians to residents just mean that the health welfare in big cities is in a higher standrad not that the health condition of those people is worse. c.the arguer overlooks the possibility that residents choose to move to small town like Leeville when they retire,which absolutely lead to the higher average age of Leeville residents 2.the arguer fails to establish a causal relation between the relaxed manner of living in small towns and better health and greater longevity from the point of medicine. 3. the arguer neglects other factors which is concerned by the elder:good-natured environment, convenient access to their family members 235--结论说明型--市场策略/目标受众 The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station. "Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics." Understanding of the topic: 1. Position: Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Reasons: 1). Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. 2). music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. 3). continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics. 简要翻译： K 应该别再播摇滚乐而改成滚动新闻。因为听众地区的老年人急剧上升，而听众却在下降。 另外，我们地区的音乐商店报告说音乐唱片的销售在下降。最后隔壁城的滚动新闻电台挺 成功，一份在最近选举前做的调查显示当地居民对更了解政治有兴趣。 推荐提纲： 1． Three factors are listed to persuade that KNOW radio station should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Factor one, the number of older people in their listening area has increased dramatically, and the total number of the listeners has declined. How does he know? He needs to show the statistics. He also needs to prove that older people don't like music and that the decline of the number of the listeners has close relation to their dislike for music rather than they are busier at work, so to speak. Factor two, Music stores in their area report decreased sales of recorded music. This phenomenon even if it's true, won't be representative enough. Anyway there is no indication whatsoever that KNOW station is oriented to their local area. The other reason might be that the KNOW station's music program is so good that the citizens just feel so satisfied with the radio that that they no longer need to buy records. Factor three, the survey just before the election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics. That is because they are very concerned about that particular election, therefore the result can't illustrate the general situation all year round. When a survey were held some other time, the outcome might not necessarily be the same. To conclude, the arguer's listed factors should have been straightly directed to the citizens' dislike for rock music and their disappointment at not sufficient news is offered at KNOW radio station. 2． 1. Old people may like physical exercises than listening radio. 2. The decline of sales of recorded music maybe caused by other reasons. A) the quality of recorded music is poor. B) Recorded music has been defeated by pirate copies. C) TV (MTV) maybe another reason for the decline 3. The survey is not convincing A) false analogy between the two places. B) the size of the survey is not mentioned. 237--结论说明型--政府商业 The following appeared as part of an article in a local Beauville newspaper. "According to a government report, last year the city of Dillton reduced its corporate tax rate by 15 percent; at the same time, it began offering relocation grants and favorable rates on city utilities to any company that would relocate to Dillton. Within 18 months, two manufacturing companies moved to Dillton, where they employ a total of 300 people. Therefore, the fastest way for Beauville to stimulate economic development and hence reduce unemployment is to provide tax incentives and other financial inducements that encourage private companies to relocate here." Understanding of the topic: Acts: 1). According to a government report, last year the city of Dillton reduced its corporate tax rate by 15 percent; 2). it began offering relocation grants and favorable rates on city utilities to any company that would relocate to Dillton Result: Within 18 months, two manufacturing companies moved to Dillton, where they employ a total of 300 people. Therefore: the fastest way for Beauville to stimulate economic development and hence reduce unemployment is to provide tax incentives and other financial inducements that encourage private companies to relocate here. 简要翻译： B 刺激经济发展降低失业率的最快方法是提供税收刺激和其他财政刺激鼓励私人企业再创 业。因为 D 城去年把企业税降了 15％，同时他们开始向所有到 D 来创业的企业提供资金和 优惠的城市设备使用价格。18 个月里，两家制造企业搬去了 D，它们一共雇了 300 个人。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. false analogy: a. the initial tax rate of D may be quite high while in B it is already very low. b. No evidence show that B and D is similar in economic situation. May be B is a industrial city while D is a politic center. 2. the evidence is not persuasive: a.300people is not a relative large number if D is a populous city b.18month is a relatively short period. c. other reason may be responsible for the companies' relocation such as avoiding competition etc. 3. whether companies have the ability to reduce unemployment is open to doubt. The staff of the company may relocate with the company together. 2． 1. No evidence shows the two manufacturing companies mentioned by the arguer are private companies. 2.No evidence shows these two manufacturing companies moved to D because of the reduced corporate tax rate. a. D have potential market for these two manufacturing companies. b. they are evicted by their former regions government for heavy pollution. 3. No evidence shows economy in D increased and unemployment is reduced only because there are 300 people get their job in these two companies: a. what's the status of these two companies ? they might be in poor financial conditions even in debt. b. what's the salary of the employee there? it might be quite low than average local salary. c. what's the total number of unemployment in D? 300 might be a quite small proportion . 238--比较引论型--教育就业 The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Mira Vista College to the college''s board of trustees. "At nearby Green Mountain College, which has more business courses and more job counselors than does Mira Vista College, 90 percent of last year''s graduating seniors had job offers from prospective employers. But at Mira Vista College last year, only 70 percent of the seniors who informed the placement office that they would be seeking employment had found full-time jobs within three months after graduation, and only half of these graduates were employed in their major field of study. To help Mira Vista''s graduates find employment, we must offer more courses in business and computer technology and hire additional job counselors to help students with their resumés and interviewing skills." Understanding of the topic: A. At nearby Green Mountain College, which has more business courses and more job counselors than does Mira Vista College, 90 percent of last year''s graduating seniors had job offers from prospective employers. B. But at Mira Vista College last year, only 70 percent of the seniors who informed the placement office that they would be seeking employment had found full-time jobs within three months after graduation, and only half of these graduates were employed in their major field of study. C.Therefore, To help Mira Vista''s graduates find employment, we must offer more courses in business and computer technology and hire additional job counselors to help students with their resumés and interviewing skills." 简要翻译： 我们必须提供更多的商业课和计算机技术，并雇佣更多的职业顾问帮助学生做好简历和面 试技巧。因为隔壁的 G 校比我们多这些东西，去年他们 90％的毕业生从潜在雇主那里拿到 了工作 offer，不过 M 只有 70％报告办公室会去找工作的高年纪学生在毕业后三个月里找 到了全职工作，而且只有一半的学生工作与专业相关。 推荐提纲： 1． 1.while half of MV college's graduates were employed in their major field of study, there is no information whether those in CM college were in their major field study. 2.false analogy. GM might be technology and business oriented, while MV is humanity-oriented. 3.90 percent of the seniors had job offers doesn't mean they all take them, feeling satisfied with them. The nature of the jobs is not mentioned. 4.more factors play a role in job-finding, which have been ignored. 5.the present proportion between the counselors is not mentioned, and perhaps it's more than enough. 2． 1. False analogy A) Gree Mountain College is a famous college while Mira Vista College is not. B) The focus of majors of G is different from that of M 2. Self-report is not convincing A) 90% and 70$ is not comparable B) the percentage of graduates from M, who were employed in their major field of study is not mentioned. 4. There is no evidence shows that more students will get full-time jobs if M offers more courses in business and computer technology and hire additional job conselors. 239－因为所以型－居住环境 The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton. "When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime." Understanding of the topic: Reasons: 1). When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. 2). In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Position: Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime. 简要翻译： D 城应该采用同样的宵禁政策。因为让年轻人晚上必须待在家里一定能控制青少年犯罪并 使弱者不会成为犯罪的牺牲品。因为隔壁 W 四个月前采用了这样的政策，让 18 岁以下的 人晚 10 点以后不得在公众场所闲逛，少年犯罪在宵禁期间降了 27％。在 W 广场，以前臭 名昭著的高犯罪场所，从那以后没有报告过一起犯罪。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. crime rate dropping in curfew does not follow the total crime rate drops too. curfew time is only after 10 p.m 2.no crime in W's town square reported does not mean the crime rates drops too, the criminal might choose other places. moreover, no crime reported does not ensure there is no crime since most crimes occur in non-open ways. 3.false anology between D and W. a. W's crime might involved a lot of teen-agers however D's crime are mainly commited by adults. b. No evidence shows rising crime rate in D are caused by teen-agers, and D might be famous about its night life, thus mindly copy what W did is unwise. 2． 1.27 percent decline in youth crimes during curfew hours might transfer to the other hours. 2.Because of the curfew, no youth would be silly enough to appear at an open square to attract attention to their crimes. They simply commit more crimes elsewhere. On the other hand, no report doesn't ensure absolutely no crimes. 3.False analogy: W town's juvenile delinquency might be serious, while crimes in D are mostly committed by adults. 240－结论说明型－教育 The following appeared in a memo written by a dean at Buckingham College. "To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a new dormitory. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, should double over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has increased in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, an attractive new dormitory would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham." Understanding of the topic: Position: To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a new dormitory. Reasons: 1） 、Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, should double over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories inadequate. 2 ）、 the average rent for an apartment in our town has increased in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. 3） 、an attractive new dormitory would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham 简要翻译： B 校应该建一个新的宿舍。因为注册数在上升，依目前的趋势今后五十年里会翻番，那么 现在的宿舍也就不够。另外，镇上租房子的钱每年都在上涨，结果学生会发现在校外找房 子越来越难，最后漂亮的新宿舍会提高注册数。 推荐提纲： 1． 1. fifty years is quite a long time to make pragmatic planning: since the enrollment only double over next fifty years, each year's increase will not be significant and the difference between the new students enrolled and the senior students graduated may be too small to get a new dormitory constructed. 2. increasing in average rent for apartment is not the same as increasing in rent for all apartment. As we all know, students usually rent houses near the school, if the rent of these house keep constants or even decrease, the construction of the new dormitory will not be so attractive as the arguer expected. 3. students choose which college to enroll no the base of the quantity of its teaching, the academic environment it providing, the school's reputation and the major it offers rather than attractive dormitory. 2． 1. fifty years is a so long-term concept, therefore no need to hastily build the dormitory immediately. 2. the arguer all the while fails to mention the current dormitory supplyment and situation for usage. wheather or not there are many room still remain unoccupied? 3. the difficulty in afford off-campus housing is not a convincing reason that the students will take the dormitory a. a lot of students prefer off-campus housing than dormitory even the former cost more. b. they can rent the appartment in groups. 4. dormitory is not the determinative factors in attracting enrollment. if B has poor fame and pedagogics, the student will not be likely to enter B though it has new dormitories. 241－比较引论型－商业 The following appeared in a memo at the XYZ company. "When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those employees assistance in creating resumés and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. Laid-off employees have benefited greatly from Delany''''s services: last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not. Recently, it has been proposed that we use the less-expensive Walsh Personnel Firm in place of Delany. This would be a mistake because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a year. Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. After all, last year Delany''''s clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh''''s clients took nine." Understanding of the topic: 背景介绍：When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those employees assistance in creating resumés and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. Laid-off employees have benefited greatly from Delany''''s services: last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not. Proposal: Recently, it has been proposed that we use the less-expensive Walsh Personnel Firm in place of Delany. Position: Object Reasons: 1） 、This would be a mistake because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a year. 2） 、Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. 3） 、last year Delany''''s clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh''''s clients took nine. 简要翻译： 改用便宜的 W 而不用 D 是错误的。因为八年前我们就用了 W，只有一半被裁的员工在一 年里找到了工作。另外 D 显然更好，他们人多分支机构也多就是证据。去年 D 的顾客平均 花六个月找工作，而 W 的顾客要九个月 推荐提纲： 1． 1. Things are different after 8 years, the arguer unfairly make the judgement without surveying the current status of W. 2. Bigger staff and larger number of branch offices do not equal high efficiency. on the contrary, these factors might result in complex and tedious processes which decrease the efficiency in D. 3. The time clients took in finding jobs can not be convincing devoid of the quality of the jobs. are D's clients satisfied with there jobs ? what kind of jobs they get ? 2． 1. data from eight years ago cannot be a convincing evidence of the current situation 2. bigger staff and larger number of branch offices do not promise high efficiency, on the other hand, they may be the cause of high charge of Delany 3. differencies in the capability, qualification and other factors may make Walsh's clients to take more time in finding jobs. 242－结论说明型－教育 The following appeared as an editorial in the student newspaper of Groveton College. "To combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among college and university students, these institutions should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton''''s, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated. Groveton''''s honor code replaced an old-fashioned system in which students were closely monitored by teachers and an average of thirty cases of cheating per year were reported. The honor code has proven far more successful: in the first year it was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey conducted by the Groveton honor council, a majority of students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without." Understanding of the topic: 1. 在看过几篇提纲后，尤其是一篇提纲后，对 ISSUE 和 Argument 的差别， ETS 对两者 不同的定位和要求有了进一步的了解和体会。ISSUE，其 topic 一般是简单的一两句话，给 出一个观点，一种现象、行为等，你可以对其任何一面进行展开，用你的例子去 support ur idea，重要立；而 Argument 则是给出一段话，而这一段话往往是 support 其中心思想，一 个观点，行为，现象，为其辩护，是其理由，让其站得住脚，让读者接受其观点，而我们 则是 to find how well reasoned the argument is，重要找出这个 topic 的理由，论据和其所要 证明，支持，论证的观点，现象，行为之间的关系，逻辑是否紧密，正确，我们就这个方 面来驳斥和展开。所以，在写 argument 时，千万不要写成了 issue，在写 issue 时，写成了 argument，这是非常危险的 2、 这个 topic 要支持的是的一句话：To combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among college and university students, these institutions should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton''s, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated. 接下来的都是理由，有三： 1） 、是隐藏的，即学生自己监督比被老师严格的管制对防止作弊要好 2） 、The honor code has proven far more successful: in the first year it was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. 3） 、in a recent survey conducted by the Groveton honor council, a majority of students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without 3、那么可以反驳的有如下几点： 1） 、in the first year it was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen，这并不能表明 honor code 是否有成效，而说其被 这个 proven far more sucessful 更是没有依据，错误的，没有任何监督和证实，完全靠学生 的自愿，学生反映的数据怎么可能是事实？ 2） 、基数不一样，20－30 的数字并不能说明什么问题，而且没有考虑其他因素的影响，因 此这个数据并不能说明什么 3） 、survey 的真实性值得怀疑，因为这是由 groveton 自己发布的，怎么能保证其真实性？ 4） 、students agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors 并不代表他们 abandon cheating 5） 、这个机制建立的基础是 suspection, 且只是 suspection，那么结果如何可信，反映出来 的情况与真实的情况如何一致？ 6） 、adopt and promote the honor code 的目的是 combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among college and university students，那么这个机制是否能达到这样的效果 呢？当然不能，而且还 probably make the situation worse 简要翻译： 为打击最近报告急剧上升的作弊行为，各校应该采用和 G 校一样的 H 办法，这是让学生同 意不在学术课程上作弊，并若怀疑有人作弊就报告老师。这个办法替换了一个过时的系统， 就是让老师近距离的监督，而且平均每年都会有 30 起作弊报告。这个办法很成功，的一年 21 起，五年后，这个数字降到了 14 起。另外，最近的一份调查说大多数学生说他们有 H 比没有更不可能作弊 推荐提纲： 1． 1. agreeing not to cheat does not mean the students actually abandoned cheating. since no one likes to being considered as cheaters , most of them make the agreement or they will certainly be exposed that they have the motivation in cheating 2.this report system is problematic since it is based on suspection. suspection is quite an inaccruate concept. 3. the arguer simply draw his conclusion by compare two years without provide the status of years between them. it quite possible four years later ,there is more reported cheating than 14. moreover, 14, 20 themselves are relative small numbers so that they can not be cogent statistics. 4. the recent survey is conducted by Gh itself, which make what it provide open to doubt, the students might influenced by the surveyor and failed to represent their real opinions. 2． 1.When the total number of students each year is unknown, 30, or 21, or 14 cases won't make any sense. Perhaps the number of the students' or of the test takers has been on the decline. 2.Teachers and students sense of responsibility regarding the report on cheating is different. It was the teachers' job to monitor and report cheating cases, while students might concentrate more on their own exam taking. 3.To agree they wouldn't cheat doesn't ensure they really don't. To report on the base of suspicion is unreliable. Many students wouldn't bother to report because of lack of proof or because they are not sure of their suspicion. They don't enjoy deteriorating the relationship with their fellow students anyway. 4.The reliability of the survey in which students said they would be less likely to cheat with an honor cold in place is open to doubt. They might feel at easy with such a code because of the less probability of being caught while cheating and fail to tell the truth.