Annex A
EXCHANGE FUND ADVISORY COMMITTEE
CURRENCY BOARD SUB-COMMITTEE
Report on Currency Board Operations
(30 July – 30 August 2005)
The Hong Kong dollar exchange rate strengthened modestly
during the reporting period. Interbank interest rates rose.
The Monetary Base decreased from HK$279.60 billion to
HK$277.91 billion, largely reflecting a decline in
Certificates of Indebtedness. In accordance with Currency
Board principles, changes in the Monetary Base were fully
matched by corresponding changes in foreign reserves.
Hong Kong dollar exchange rate
1.
The Hong Kong dollar
exchange rate strengthened
slightly to close at 7.7707 at the
end of the reporting period,
reportedly
associated
with
expectation of further renminbi
appreciation. (Chart 1). The
effective exchange rate of the
Hong Kong dollar was little
changed (Chart 2).
Chart 1
Hong Kong dollar exchange rate
(closing rate)
HK$/US$
7.89
7.89
Weak-side Convertibility Undertaking
7.87
7.87
7.85
7.85
7.83
7.83
7.81
7.81
7.79
7.79
7.77
7.77
7.75
7.75
7.73
7.73
Strong-side Convertibility Undertaking
7.71
7.71
21/06 28/06 05/07 12/07 19/07 26/07 02/08 09/08 16/08 23/08 30/08
Jan 2000=100
107
Chart 2
Effective Exchange Rate Index
107
105
105
103
103
101
101
99
99
97
97
95
95
Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05
-2Interest rates
2.
Hong
Kong
dollar
interbank
interest
rates
increased during the reporting
period. The one-month and threemonth HIBORs increased by 19
basis points and 28 basis points
to close at 3.57% and 3.77%
respectively.
The
12-month
HIBOR rose by 33 basis points to
close at 4.11% (Chart 3).
3.
Interest rate volatility, as
measured
by
the
standard
deviation of daily changes in
one-month HIBOR, declined in
August. The standard deviation as
a ratio to the average level of
one-month HIBOR also decreased
(Chart 4). 1
4. Hong Kong dollar interbank
interest rates continued to stay
below the corresponding US
dollar rates, but the gap
narrowed
somewhat.
The
negative spreads of 3-month and
12-month Hong Kong dollar
interest rates over the US dollar
counterparts contracted by 9 basis
points and 19 basis points to
close at -11 basis points and -22
basis
points
respectively
(Chart 5).
1
Chart 3
HIBORs
% p.a.
4.8
4.8
4.0
4.0
3.2
3.2
2.4
2.4
1.6
1.6
1-month
0.8
3-month
12-month
0.0
0.8
0.0
-0.8
-0.8
21/06 28/06 05/07 12/07 19/07 26/07 02/08 09/08 16/08 23/08 30/08
Chart 4
Interest rate volatility
1.4
1.2
1.4
Standard deviation of daily changes
in 1-month HIBOR
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
1.0
Standard deviation of daily changes
in 1-month HIBOR relative to its
monthly average
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
Jan 02
% p.a.
0.6
0.0
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Chart 5
Hong Kong dollar - US dollar
interest rate spreads
1-month
3-month
Jul 05
0.6
12-month
0.0
0.0
-0.6
-0.6
-1.2
-1.2
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The ratio of the standard deviation of daily changes in the 1-month HIBOR to its monthly average
measures the extent of interest rate fluctuations relative to the average level of interest rates.
-35.
Reflecting the movements
in interest rate spreads, the Hong
Kong dollar 12-month forward
discount narrowed by 160 pips
to close at 130 pips. The threemonth forward discount narrowed
by 19 pips to close at 19 pips
(Chart 6).
6.
Yields of Exchange Fund
paper rose across the board
during the period (Chart 7). The
negative yield spreads against US
Treasuries generally contracted
(except for the three-month
maturity), with the 5-year and 10year spreads narrowing to -11
basis points and -4 basis points
respectively at the end of the
period (Table 1).
7.
Following a 25-basis-point
increase in the US Fed funds
target rate, the HKMA Base
Rate was adjusted upward by
25 basis points to 5.00% on 10
August
according
to
the
established formula (Chart 8).
Banks raised their Best Lending
Rates by the same magnitude to
6.75% on 11 August.
Chart 6
Hong Kong dollar forward points
pips
200
200
3-month
0
0
-200
-200
12-month
-400
-400
-600
-600
-800
-800
21/06 28/06 05/07 12/07 19/07 26/07 02/08 09/08 16/08 23/08 30/08
Chart 7
Exchange Fund paper yield curves
% p.a.
8
7
8
7
end-Jun 97
6
6
30 Aug 05
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
29 Jul 05
1
1
0
0
-1
1W
1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
-1
10Y
Table 1
Yield spreads of Exchange Fund paper over
US Treasuries (basis points)
27 Jun 97
29 Jul 05
30 Aug 05
3-month
1-year
3-year
5-year
10-year
% p.a.
6
56
21
3
27
54
-41
-59
-52
-46
-44
-43
-35
-21
-11
-4
Chart 8
Base Rate and overnight HIBOR
6
federal funds target rate + 150bps
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
Closing O/N HIBOR
2
1
Simple average of 5-day moving
averages of O/N & 1M HIBORs
1
0
0
21/06 28/06 05/07 12/07 19/07 26/07 02/08 09/08 16/08 23/08 30/08
-48.
The average one-month
time deposit rate offered by
major authorized institutions
increased from 1.516% to
1.718% during the period. 2 The
effective deposit rate rose from
0.78%
to
1.03%
in
July
3
(Chart 9).
% p.a.
1.2
Chart 9
Effective Hong Kong dollar deposit rate
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Monetary Base
9.
The Monetary Base, which
consists
of
Certificates
of
Indebtedness (CIs), governmentissued currency notes and coins in
circulation, the Aggregate Balance,
and Exchange Fund Bills and
Notes,
decreased
from
HK$279.60 billion to HK$277.91
billion during the reporting period
(Table 2).
Movements in the
individual
components
are
discussed below.
1.2
Table 2
Monetary Base
(HK$ bn)
1 Aug 05
30 Aug 05
CIs
Government-issued
Currency Notes and
Coins in Circulation
Aggregate Balance
Outstanding EFBNs
146.08
6.77
144.54
6.76
1.36
125.40
1.37
125.25
Monetary Base
279.60
277.91
Certificates of Indebtedness
10. The
three
note-issuing
banks redeemed HK$1.54 billion
of CIs to the HKMA in exchange
for US$197.4 million during the
period.
As a result, the
outstanding amount of CIs
decreased
from
HK$146.08
2
The figures refer to the average of interest rates offered by the major authorized institutions for onemonth time deposits of less than HK$100,000.
3
This is the average of the interest rates on demand, savings and time deposits. As the banking statistics
classify deposits by remaining maturities, we have made certain assumptions regarding the maturity
distribution in computing the effective deposit rate.
0.0
Jul 05
-5billion to
(Chart 10).
HK$144.54
billion
Government-issued
currency
notes and coins in circulation
11. The
total
amount
of
government-issued
currency
notes and coins in circulation
was little changed at around
HK$6.76 billion during the
reporting period (Chart 11).
Aggregate Balance
12. The Aggregate Balance
remained relatively stable at
around HK$1.30 billion, with
small fluctuations due to interest
payments on Exchange Fund
paper (Chart 12).
HK$ bn
155
13. The market value of
outstanding Exchange Fund
Bills and Notes decreased
slightly from HK$125.40 billion
to HK$125.25 billion. Holdings
of Exchange Fund paper by the
banking sector (before Discount
Window activities) increased
modestly from HK$98.12 billion
(78.25% of total) to HK$99.27
155
150
150
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
21/06 28/06 05/07 12/07 19/07 26/07 02/08 09/08 16/08 23/08 30/08
HK$ bn
7.4
Chart 11
Government-issued currency notes
and coins in circulation
7.4
7.2
7.2
7.0
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.4
6.4
6.2
6.2
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HK$ bn
3
2
Outstanding Exchange Fund Bills
and Notes
Chart 10
Certificates of Indebtedness
1
Chart 12
Aggregate Balance
(before Discount Window activities)
including EFBN interest payments
excluding EFBN interest payments
3
2
1
0
0
21/06 28/06 05/07 12/07 19/07 26/07 02/08 09/08 16/08 23/08 30/08
-6billion
(79.25%
(Chart 13).
of
total)
14.
During
the
period,
HK$309.53 million of interest
payments on Exchange Fund
paper were made. An additional
HK$299.66 million (in market
value) of Exchange Fund paper
was issued to absorb these
interest
payments.
The
remaining amount was carried
forward in the Aggregate Balance.
Most issues of Exchange Fund
paper were well received by the
market (Table 3).
HK$ bn
106
Chart 13
Exchange Fund paper held
by licensed banks
106
102
102
98
98
94
94
90
90
21/06 28/06 05/07 12/07 19/07 26/07 02/08 09/08 16/08 23/08 30/08
Table 3
Issuance of Exchange Fund Bills and Notes
(30 Jul – 30 Aug 05)
1-month EFB
3-month EFB
6-month EFB
1-year EFB
2-year EFN
7-year EFN
No. of
issues
launched
1
4
2
1
1
1
Oversubscription ratio
8.88
2.38 – 3.77
3.02 – 3.72
2.63
2.12
0.66
Discount Window activities
15. During the period, five
banks borrowed a total of
HK$1.58 billion from the
Discount Window, compared
with HK$5.60 billion in the
preceding period (Chart 14). All
borrowings used Exchange Fund
paper as collateral (Table 4).
HK$ bn
1.5
Chart 14
Discount Window borrowing
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
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Table 4
Frequency of individual bank’s
access to the Discount Window
(30 Jul – 30 Aug 05)
Frequency of using
No. of banks
Discount Window
1
2
3
Total
3
1
1
5
-7Backing Portfolio
16. Backing Assets decreased
alongside the contraction in the
Monetary Base during the period.
As the Backing Assets decreased
proportionally less than the
Monetary Base, the Backing
Ratio increased from 110.92%
on 31 July to 111.26% on
30 August
2005
(Chart 15).
Under the Linked Exchange Rate
system, while specific Exchange
Fund assets have been designated
for the Backing Portfolio, all
Exchange
Fund
assets
are
available to support the Hong
Kong dollar exchange rate.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority
29 September 2005
%
114
Chart 15
Daily movement of the Backing Ratio
114
Upper Trigger Level
112
112
110
110
108
108
106
104
Jan 02 Jul 02
106
Lower Trigger Level
104
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05