NSW INDEPENDENT TRIAL EXAMS – 2010 ECONOMICS Yr 11 PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION MARKING GUIDELINES Section I 1 B 2 C 3 B 4 D 5 A 6 B 7 C 8 A 9 D 10 B 11 C 12 D 13 C 14 B 15 C 16 D 17 B 18 C 19 A 20 A Section II Question 21(a) Criteria Marks 1 Correctly defines the meaning of market equilibrium 0 Incorrect answer Suggested answer: Market equilibrium is a situation where the market demand curve and the market supply curve intersect in order to determine equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity. Question 21(b) Criteria Correctly calculates total revenue of $24,000,000 at the original point of market equilibrium Incorrectly calculates total revenue at the original point of market equilibrium Suggested answer: Total Revenue = Price x Quantity sold Total revenue at the point of market equilibrium = $1,200 x 20,000 Total revenue = $24,000,000 Marks 1 0 Question 21(c) Criteria Marks 2 Sketches in general terms TWO factors which would cause the demand for road bikes to change from DD to D1D1 (an increase in demand) 1 Sketches in general terms ONE factor which would cause demand to change from DD to D1D1 OR identifies rather than outlines TWO factors Suggested answer: The change from DD to D1D1 is called an increase in demand which is caused by factors affecting demand other than price. Two of the following factors that could increase demand for this product, should be explained: • A rise in consumer income could increase the demand for road bikes • An increase in the population could increase the demand for road bikes • An increase in the popularity of a particular good or service (taste patterns) such as road bikes could increase the demand for this product • An increase in the price of a substitute good such as new cars, motor scooters or public transport could increase the demand for road bikes • A decrease in the price of a complementary good such as bike helmets, bike parking facilities or spare parts could increase the demand for road bikes • An improvement in technology leading to better quality road bikes could increase the demand for road bikes Question 21(d) Criteria Provides characteristics and features of TWO factors which would affect the price elasticity of supply Provides characteristics and features of ONE factor which would affect the price elasticity of supply OR identifies TWO factors Question 21(d) continues on the next page Marks 2 1 NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 1 Question 21(d) continued Suggested answer: The level of stocks which are held by the firm can affect the price elasticity of supply. If firms have inventories they can respond to changes in price by adjusting their supply. If a firm has excess capacity it can expand its level of production in order to respond to a change in price by increasing production and supply. The period of time it takes for a firm to change its factor inputs in response to a change in price can affect the elasticity of supply. Students may refer to the market period (no factors of production can be changed or varied), the short run (some factors of production can be changed or varied) and the long run (all factors of production can be changed or varied). Question 21(e) Criteria Marks 3–4 Inquires into the reasons why the government may intervene in certain markets 1–2 Identifies some general reasons why the government may intervene in certain markets Suggested answer: There are certain situations where market failure occurs and the government may intervene in the market and provide an alternative solution. The government may intervene in the market by setting a maximum price (price ceiling) or by setting a minimum price (price floor). The government may also intervene in the market to provide public goods, for example, the armed forces to protect a country or flood mitigation schemes to protect farmers from damaging floods. Merit goods are also provided by the government including libraries, public schools, art galleries and parks and playground facilities. A negative externality is another example of market failure. A negative externality arises when the price of a good doesn’t include the social costs of the good. Pollution is an example of a negative externality. The government may intervene and impose a tax on the polluter in order to finance the social costs borne by the community because of the pollution caused by private production of polluting goods. Question 22(a) Criteria Marks 2 Notes the differences between primary and secondary financial markets 1 Describes either primary financial markets or secondary financial markets but does not distinguish between them Suggested answer: Generally financial markets can be broken up into three broad categories: primary, secondary and derivatives markets. Primary markets are where the initial capital raisings of corporations (either debt or equity) are made, while the secondary markets are where existing securities are traded. Hence once securities (such as debt, shares, bonds and options) are issued in primary financial markets they become available for further exchange in the secondary markets. Primary markets are for initial capital raisings whilst secondary markets provide liquidity through the buying and selling of financial instruments between market participants. Question 22(b) Criteria Marks 2 Correctly explains why and how the Reserve Bank of Australia regulates Australia’s financial markets 1 Describes a feature of the Reserve Bank’s regulation of Australia’s financial markets Suggested answer: The Reserve Bank of Australia has a major role in maintaining financial system stability and promoting the efficiency of the payments system. The Reserve Bank pursues two broad sets of policies: those designed to prevent financial disturbances and those that counteract the effects of disturbances if they occur. In 1998 the responsibility for the supervision of banks was transferred from the RBA to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). The Reserve Bank operates the Payments System Board to ensure the payments system functions efficiently and also conducts a Financial Stability Review to ensure financial stability in the Australian financial system. In exceptional circumstances it can provide lender of last resort facilities to a major financial institution. NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 2 Question 22(c) Criteria Marks 2 Indicates TWO features of the Reserve Bank’s conduct of monetary policy 1 Indicates only ONE feature of the Reserve Bank’s conduct of monetary policy Suggested answer: Two of the following features of the conduct of monetary policy should be addressed: Monetary policy aims to control consumer price inflation and encourage strong and sustainable growth of the economy. The Reserve Bank’s operational target is to achieve 2% to 3% CPI inflation on average over the economic cycle. Monetary policy decisions are made by the RBA and involve setting the interest rate on overnight loans in the money market which is known as the cash rate. The RBA uses its domestic market operations to influence the cash rate. The cash rate is determined in the money market as a result of the interaction of demand and supply of overnight funds. The RBA’s ability to target the cash rate stems from its control over the supply of funds which the banks use to settle transactions among themselves. These are called exchange settlement funds and are held with the Reserve Bank. Movements in the cash rate are passed through quite quickly to the whole term structure of deposit and lending rates which ultimately affects spending and output. Question 22(d) Criteria Marks 4 Correctly explains TWO effects of an increase in the cash rate on the Australian economy by relating cause and effect 3 Describes rather than explains TWO effects of an increase in the cash rate on the Australian economy by relating cause and effect 2 Correctly explains ONE effect of an increase in the cash rate on the Australian economy by relating cause and effect 1 Describes rather than explains ONE effect of an increase in the cash rate on the Australian economy Suggested answer: Changes in interest rates can affect Australian economic activity through a number of mechanisms. They can affect savings and investment behaviour, the spending behaviour of households, the supply of credit, asset prices and the exchange rate, all of which affect the level of aggregate demand. An increase in the cash rate would be implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the growth in aggregate demand in order to contain inflation and rising inflationary expectations in the Australian economy. Two of the following effects of an increase in interest rates on the Australian economy should be explained: Lower levels of spending on consumer and investment goods as cash flows are reduced for households and firms through higher interest payments on existing levels of debt A disincentive to borrow funds because of higher interest costs and a greater incentive to save and reduce existing debt on the part of consumers and firms An increased cost of credit borrowings and purchases on the part of individuals, firms and governments. This will reduce spending and the growth of aggregate demand Higher levels of capital inflow and increased demand for Australian dollars which could lead to an appreciation of the exchange rate. This would have a dampening effect on economic growth through lower competitiveness and export earnings The reduction of inflationary expectations in the economy on the part of businesses leading to a moderation in the level of price adjustments, helping to contain price inflation The reduction of inflationary expectations in the economy on the part of workers leading to a moderation in the level of wage demands, helping to contain wage inflation Lower levels of overall spending in the economy leading to reduced levels of output and economic growth. This will eventually result in lower inflation and inflationary expectations through slower and more sustainable growth in aggregate demand NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 3 Section III Question 23 Criteria Integrates economic terms, concepts, issues, relationships and theory in an appropriate context Uses detailed knowledge to develop a logical and cohesive answer that highlights a clear understanding of how market equilibrium price and output are determined Demonstrates factually precise and extensive knowledge of how disequilibrium market situations are resolved in the market place Incorporates diagrams to illustrate market equilibrium and disequilibrium market situations Provides concise definitions of economic terms and applies concepts and relationships in an appropriate context Uses knowledge to develop a logical and generally cohesive answer that highlights an understanding of how market equilibrium price and output are determined Demonstrates factually correct and appropriate knowledge of how disequilibrium market situations are resolved in the market place Uses diagrams to illustrate market equilibrium and disequilibrium market situations Provides clear definitions of economic terms and sound discussion of economic concepts and relationships Uses knowledge to develop an answer about how market equilibrium price and output are determined Demonstrates correct and usually relevant knowledge of how disequilibrium market situations are resolved in the market place Uses a diagram related to market equilibrium Provides basic definitions of some economic terms, concepts and relationships Uses generalised knowledge to develop irrelevant or inappropriate answer about how market equilibrium price and output are determined Demonstrates minimal knowledge of how disequilibrium market situations are resolved in the market place. May use a diagram to illustrate market equilibrium Utilises some appropriate terminology to communicate economic issues Develops no logical sequence in answer Demonstrates a lack of knowledge about market equilibrium and disequilibrium situations Does not include any economic diagrams in relation to market equilibrium Essay plan: Marks 17–20 13–16 9–12 5–8 1–4 A market is a situation which brings together buyers and sellers of goods and services for the purpose of exchange. The demand by consumers for goods and services is illustrated by a demand schedule which shows the quantities of goods and services buyers are willing and able to purchase at various price levels at a given period of time. The supply of goods and services is illustrated by a supply schedule which shows the quantities of goods and services sellers are willing and able to offer for sale at various price levels at a given period of time. Where the demand and supply of a good or service are equal, market equilibrium price and quantity or output are determined. The relationship between price and the quantity demanded of a good or service by consumers is shown using a demand curve. The demand curve is a downward sloping curve. It shows the inverse relationship between price and quantity. This downward slope of the demand curve is a reflection of the law of demand which states that more goods and services are demanded at lower prices, and less goods and services are demanded at higher prices. Demand curves used in economic analysis are usually market demand curves which show the total of individual demands for particular goods and services at a particular point in time. Question 23 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 4 Question 23 continued The supply of goods and services is illustrated through a supply schedule. A supply schedule shows what sellers are willing and able to sell at various price levels at a given period of time. The supply schedule is usually a market supply schedule of firms willing to supply different quantities of output over a range of prices. The law of supply states that the quantity supplied tends to vary directly or positively with price. This means that producers will only be willing to supply more products in a market as price increases, and be less willing to supply products in a market as price decreases. The supply curve is therefore an upward sloping curve. Suppliers are basically driven by the motive of profit maximisation and will increase supply if there is a prospect of making higher profits. Producers will cut back supply in markets if prices fall, to minimise losses from the sale of their output. The relationship between price and the quantity supplied is shown using a supply curve. The supply curve is an upward sloping curve. It shows the direct relationship between price and quantity, with more goods and services being offered for sale at higher prices and less goods and services being offered for sale at lower prices. Market equilibrium price and quantity are established at the point of intersection of the supply and demand curves. This means that the quantity demanded is exactly equal to the quantity supplied at the market price. Equilibrium in the market means that there is no tendency for change in the market price or the quantity of output at that particular point in time. However, due to the dynamic operation of the market place (with changing demand and supply conditions), equilibrium price and quantity are constantly changing. A change in the determinants of demand and supply can shift their respective curves causing a new equilibrium price and quantity or level of output to be established. Better students may refer to shifts in the demand and supply curves and how these can cause changes in equilibrium prices and quantities in the market. For example, an increase in demand will lead to a rise in price and quantity, whereas a decrease in demand will lead to lower price and quantity in the market. On the other hand an increase in supply will lead to a lower equilibrium price and higher equilibrium quantity, whereas a decrease in supply will lead to a higher equilibrium price and lower equilibrium quantity in the market. Market disequilibrium occurs when there is a disparity between demand and supply in the market place. If the quantity supplied is greater than the quantity demanded, a surplus of a good or service will arise in the market place. This will occur at a price above equilibrium price and quantity. In order for equilibrium to be re-established firms will reduce their price to clear the surplus in the market. Supply will contract towards equilibrium and demand will extend towards equilibrium. Ultimately equilibrium will be restored at a lower price and equilibrium quantity will be established. Disequilibrium may also occur when there is a shortage of a good or service in the market. This will occur at a price below equilibrium price and quantity. In this situation the quantity demanded is greater than the quantity supplied. Consumer competition will tend to force up prices. Price will rise and suppliers will extend their supply and consumers will contract their demand. Equilibrium will be re-established at a higher price and equilibrium quantity will be established. (Students should use diagrams to illustrate market equilibrium and disequilibrium situations and solutions). Equilibrium analysis helps economists to understand and predict how changes in market conditions will affect equilibrium prices and quantities. Price changes and price signals in markets perform a number of important functions in a market economy: Prices help to ration available goods and services between competing consumers and therefore act as a rationing device. Prices help to allocate resources between competing uses in production and therefore assist in the process of resource allocation. Prices act as signals to producers and consumers to adjust their behaviour in terms of achieving the goals of profit maximisation (producers) and utility maximisation (consumers). NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 5 Question 24 Criteria Integrates economic terms, concepts, issues, theory and relationships in an appropriate context Defines the labour market and draws and explains a labour market diagram/s Explains the factors affecting the demand and supply of labour Synthesises own knowledge to develop a logically sequenced answer on factors affecting the demand and supply of labour and how these have changed in recent years in Australia Provides concise definitions of economic terms and applies concepts and relationships in an appropriate context Defines the labour market and draws and explains a labour market diagram/s Outlines the factors affecting the demand and supply of labour Develops a logically sequenced answer on recent trends in the demand and supply of labour in Australia and how these have changed in recent years Provides clear definitions of economic terms and sound discussion of the labour market Develops a logical sequence in the answer Defines the labour market Attempts to explain recent trends in the demand and supply of labour in Australia Utilises some appropriate terminology to communicate economic ideas Attempts to develop a logical sequence in the answer Attempts to define the labour market Demonstrates minimal appropriate knowledge on recent trends in the demand and supply of labour in Australia Utilises some appropriate terminology to communicate economic ideas on the labour market Develops no logical sequence in the answer Demonstrates a lack of knowledge of recent trends in the demand and supply of labour in Australia Essay plan: Marks 17–20 13–16 9–12 5–8 1–4 Labour is the contribution of people to the production process and is an important factor of production. In return for its contribution to production, labour is paid wages as a source of income. For employers the payment of wages represents the cost of using labour in production. The labour market refers to the demand and supply of labour leading to an equilibrium wage and quantity of employment. In Australia the labour market consists of employees (who offer their labour skills in return for the payment of wages) and employers (who demand labour to fill job vacancies at differing wage rates). The demand for labour is a derived demand since it is derived from the demand for final goods and services. As at June 2010 the Australian labour force totalled 11,699,100 persons (male and female). The labour force is made up of full time persons (7,794.700 persons), part time persons (3,306,000 persons) and the unemployed (598,400 persons). The total labour force was 11,699,100 persons in June 2010 and this represented a participation rate of 65.2% of the working age population of 17,955,500 persons. The 598,400 persons classified as unemployed represented 5.1% of the Australian labour force in June 2010. The Australian labour force grew from 9,394,500 persons in 2002-03 to 11,699,100 in 2010. This reflected general growth in the economy of 3% to 4% per annum, which required an increased volume of employment. One of the most recent trends in the Australian economy is the emergence of labour skills shortages in particular industries and occupations where the supply of specialist labour skills has not kept pace with the overall demand for these skills. Examples include trades skills and professional skills. Question 24 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 6 Question 24 continued Both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors can affect the demand and supply of labour. Macroeconomic factors are economy-wide factors such as the level and growth of aggregate demand which affects the overall demand for labour resources in the economy. On the supply side, the general rate of population growth and rate of skilled immigration will affect the overall supply of labour in the economy. Microeconomic factors at the firm or industry level include the nature of production which will determine labour demand and the supply of educated and skilled persons required in a particular industry or occupation. Better students would include a diagram of the labour market for a certain industry or occupation to illustrate the determination of the equilibrium wage rate and level of employment. In macroeconomic terms the main factors affecting the demand for labour include the following: The overall level and growth in economic activity. Higher economic growth in Australia will require increased volumes of part time and full time employment. The productivity of labour will influence labour demand as higher productivity will increase the demand for labour as it is more productive in the production process. The general level of wages reflects the cost of employing labour by employers. Government industrial relations (IR) policies and the level of industrial disputation will influence labour demand. If IR policies are positive and disputation is low there will be strong labour demand. In macroeconomic terms the main factors affecting the supply of labour include the following: The size of the population and the age distribution of the population: Whilst Australia’s population has grown by around 2% per annum in recent years, there is an ageing of the population and an increased reliance on skilled migration to meet specific shortages of skilled labour. The participation rate of the working age population at over 65% has been high in Australia in recent times. This high participation rate has helped to maintain the supply of labour in the economy. The average number of hours worked has remained high, meaning that productivity has been maintained, although with up to 30% of the employed labour force working part time there is a significant level of underemployment, where many people want to work more hours. At the microeconomic level of activity in various firms and industries the demand for labour is influenced by a variety of factors: The nature and size of industries: Increased output by mining companies has seen a large rise in the demand for labour in the resources sector of the Australian economy concentrated in WA and Qld. The productivity of labour has risen in certain industries because of new technology, the use of flexible enterprising bargaining arrangements, government training schemes and the use of outsourcing/subcontracting by many firms. Higher wages and improved conditions in growing industries such as mining and trades have reflected increased demand for skilled labour. Factors affecting the supply of labour at the microeconomic level of activity include the following: Differential wage rates, remuneration and improved working conditions, (especially family oriented workplaces with child care facilities) are used by employers to attract and retain labour. The Fair Work Act 2009 legislated improvements to the Safety Net through the National Employment Standards, Modern Awards and annual adjustments to the National Minimum Wage. Education and training qualifications: There has been a recent emphasis on human capital formation through skills, experience, education/training levels provided by government training schemes and a proposed increased school leaving age (i.e. Learn or Earn). Occupational and geographic mobility of labour is encouraged by governments through trade training centres and assistance with relocation to regions with higher prospects for employment. More flexible work arrangements such as job sharing, part time and shift work are used by employers in retailing, services and manufacturing to allocate labour more efficiently and help employees to achieve a better work/family balance. These types of arrangements also helped to minimise the level of retrenchments and unemployment during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09. Question 24 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 7 Question 24 continued The Australian labour market has become more flexible in operation in recent years due to the reform of workplace relations and the changing nature of work. The Fair Work Act 2009 continued previous reforms by supporting the spread of collective workplace agreements where wages and working conditions are negotiated at the enterprise level. In addition, the rationalisation of awards to 120 Modern Awards, which also contain a flexibility clause, gives lower paid workers the opportunity to raise productivity in return for higher wages. In Australian workplaces there is increasing use of new technology and the training of workers to increase their skills. Governments have also increased incentives for older workers to remain in the workforce for longer periods to increase their participation and add to the skills base of the labour force. Section IV Question 25 Criteria Identifies the broad functions of the government Demonstrates a clear and concise understanding of the role of government policy in the stabilisation of economic activity and the redistribution of income in the Australian economy Integrates an extensive and appropriate range of economic terms, with relevant concepts, relationships and theory Synthesises own knowledge with the information provided to develop a sustained, logical and well-structured response Identifies some of the broad functions of the government Demonstrates an understanding of the role of government policy in the stabilisation of economic activity and the redistribution of income in the Australian economy Consistently applies appropriate economic terms, relevant concepts, relationships and theory Uses own knowledge with the information provided to develop a logical and structured response Identifies some of the broad functions of the government Demonstrates some understanding of the role of government policy in the stabilisation of economic activity and the redistribution of income in the Australian economy Applies appropriate economic terms, concepts and relationships Uses own knowledge with the information provided to develop a coherent response Identifies at least ONE of the broad functions of the government Sketches in general terms the role of government policy in the stabilisation of economic activity and the redistribution of income in the Australian economy. Uses some appropriate economic terms, concepts and relationships Uses information to develop a generalised response Refers to the role of government Lists some aspects of the role of government economic policy Uses some economic terms and/or concepts Presents a limited response Essay plan: Marks 17–20 13–16 9–12 5–8 1–4 The broad economic functions of the Australian government include the reallocation of resources and the redistribution of income through taxation and government expenditure; the stabilisation of economic activity through the use of monetary and fiscal policies and the provision of goods and services through public trading enterprises. Changes to the government’s fiscal policy stance are announced and implemented through the budget process. Fiscal policy along with monetary policy provide the main macroeconomic policy tools that the government can use to keep the economy growing at a sustainable pace, with low inflation and low unemployment. They are also the policy tools the government can use to try and shorten recessions and to prevent booms in economic activity from becoming excessive. This has traditionally been termed stabilisation policy. Question 25 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 8 Question 25 continued Fiscal policy is implemented through the use of a particular group of variables known as the fiscal instruments. The instruments of fiscal policy are expenditure and revenue which are under the direct control of the government. They are represented by rates of taxation, rates of transfer payments and levels of government expenditure of various types. The spending and revenue plans of the government for the fiscal period are announced through the government budget. The budget brings the revenue and spending sides of the government’s finances together and shows whether these finances are in surplus, deficit or balance for the year. The budget balance is measured by the difference between total government revenue and expenditure. The three possible outcomes for the budget are: Surplus: Revenue exceeds expenditure and the budget balance is positive Balance: Revenue equals expenditure and the budget balance is zero Deficit: Expenditure exceeds revenue and the budget balance is negative Monetary policy is the instrument of macroeconomic policy that is concerned with influencing the cost and availability of money and credit in the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is charged with the responsibility for the operation of monetary policy. The implementation of monetary policy combined with fiscal policy and microeconomic reform are used to achieve the Australian government’s economic objectives of internal balance (i.e. price stability and full employment) and economic growth. The Reserve Bank principally implements monetary policy in the short term money market. An easing of monetary policy (i.e. an expansionary stance) involves the Reserve Bank purchasing existing Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) and Repurchase Agreements (RPAs). This increases funds in the cash market and puts downward pressure on the official cash rate. On the other hand a tightening of monetary policy (i.e. a contractionary stance) involves the Reserve Bank selling Commonwealth Government Securities and Repurchase Agreements to commercial banks in the cash market. This puts upward pressure on the official cash rate. By changing the stance of monetary policy the Reserve Bank attempts to influence domestic interest rates, the general level of economic activity, prices and the exchange rate through the monetary transmission mechanism. It is the presence and impact of automatic stabilisers (taxes and transfer payments in particular) which enable fiscal policy to exert a stabilising force on economic activity. Automatic stabilisers such as income taxes and unemployment benefits respond automatically to expenditure and output gaps in the economy. When GDP declines, income tax collections fall due to the fall in household taxable income while unemployment and other welfare benefits rise. These changes in government spending and tax collections are automatic i.e. they require no explicit action by the government. They serve to increase the level of planned spending during recessions and reduce it during expansions without the delays associated with the legislative procedures that accompany the budget process. During the recent global economic crisis in 2008-09 the global economy plummeted into recession and Australia faced its own economic downturn. Some economic commentators were suggesting that up to 500,000 Australian jobs could be lost during 2009-10. The Australian Government took decisive action by using expansionary fiscal policy through a number of initiatives including the $10.4 billion Economic Security Strategy, and the $42 billion Nation Building and Job Plan. Along with the 2009 Budget (fiscal deficit of $53 billion or 4.5% of GDP) these measures were crucial in preventing the unemployment rate from rising above 5.9% during the depths of the global downturn. During this period the stance of monetary policy was also eased with the cash rate lowered through six separate adjustments between September 2008 and April 2009 from 7.25% to 3%. The countercyclical role of fiscal policy was supported by stimulatory monetary policy. In September 2008 the Reserve Bank implemented the first of its cash rate changes, with a decrease of 0.25%, making the cash rate 7%. This was followed by a series of reductions in the cash rate so that by April 2009 the cash rate had been lowered to 3%. This was a significant change in the stance of monetary policy with the Reserve Bank adopting an expansionary stance for monetary policy. This stance involved the Reserve Bank buying back government securities, which increased the supply of funds and decreased the cash rate in Australia. Question 25 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 9 Question 25 continued Fiscal policy can also be used to redistribute income, mainly through progressive income taxes and changes to income tax thresholds and marginal tax rates. Furthermore, through social security/welfare programmes the government has the capacity to influence income distribution. This usually involves direct payments to low income households. In this context, the government is using the fiscal instruments to influence income distribution after taxes and transfers. Government policies aimed at reducing income inequality are primarily designed to redistribute income and wealth in order to reduce the social and economic disadvantage suffered by low income members of the community. In most advanced economies a system of tax–transfers is used to reduce inequality in the distribution of income and wealth. This usually involves the use of progressive income taxes and transfer payments such as pensions and unemployment benefits to support low income earners, families with children on a single income, the unemployed and other disadvantaged groups. Transfer payments in the form of pensions, job search allowances and family benefits have been used to provide income support for targeted groups such as single parents, large single income families, the unemployed and the disabled. These groups generally receive the lowest incomes in any economy and this type of income support helps to raise the household income received by the least fortunate members of society. Wages policy can also be used by the government to redistribute income. Provisions have been made by the Commonwealth Government through the social wage to establish a safety net of minimum wages and working conditions to be applied across various occupations and industries. In countries like Australia this has been achieved through the Modern Award wage system and the ten National Employment Standards where awards set out the rates of pay, leave entitlements and other benefits a worker is to be afforded by their employer. The award wage system has been used to provide a minimum level of income and working conditions for workers with low skills and low bargaining power in the labour market. For example, in June 2010 Fair Work Australia (FWA) the Federal Government’s new industrial relations institution increased minimum award rates by 4.8% ($26 a week). This increase for low paid workers was expected to benefit around 1.4 million Australians. Reference could be made to recent budget statements in order to demonstrate how the budget has been used to influence the redistribution of income in the Australian economy. For example, in the 2010 Commonwealth Budget another round of tax cuts was announced to assist working families encompassing the raising of the low income offset to $1,500 in order to provide an effective tax free threshold of $16,000 for Australians with an income of up to $30,000. The Government was also claiming to assist aspiring first home buyers through concessionally taxed First Home Saver Accounts which would be allowed a 50% discount on up to $1,000 of interest earned. In the 2008 Commonwealth budget steps were taken by the government to ensure a more equitable distribution of income amongst Australian households. The 2008-09 budget included measures designed to: Ensure that working families are rewarded for their effort and helps ease cost of living pressures through tax cuts. Help working families by cutting income tax and reducing the costs of looking after and educating children. Implement a housing affordability package, making it easier for families to buy their first home and boost the supply of affordable housing for rent and purchase. Ensure that grocery and petrol prices (through the National Fuel Watch Scheme) are competitive. Question 26 Criteria Identifies clearly the factors that influence the level of interest rates Demonstrates a clear and concise understanding of the role of the Reserve Bank in determining the cash rate Integrates an extensive and appropriate range of economic terms, with relevant concepts, relationships and theory Synthesises own knowledge to develop a sustained, logical and well-structured answer Marks 17–20 Question 26 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 10 Question 26 continued Identifies generally the factors that influence the level of interest rates Demonstrates an understanding of the role of the Reserve Bank in determining the cash rate Consistently applies appropriate economic terms, relevant concepts, relationships and theory Uses own knowledge to develop a logical and structured answer Identifies some of the factors that influence the level of interest rates Sketches in general terms the role of the Reserve Bank in determining the cash rate Applies appropriate economic terms, concepts and relationships Uses own knowledge to develop a coherent response Identifies some of the factors that influence the level of interest rates Sketches in general terms the role of the Reserve Bank in determining the cash rate Uses some appropriate economic terms, concepts and relationships Uses own knowledge to develop a generalised response Refers to some of the factors that influence the level of interest rates Lists some aspects of the role of the Reserve Bank in determining the cash rate Uses some economic terms and/or concepts Presents a limited response Essay plan: 13–16 9–12 5–8 1–4 Interest is the return to the factor of production capital. Interest is the reward or payment for saving or postponing consumption to a date in the future. Therefore if individuals, firms or entrepreneurs want to borrow savings for consumption or investment purposes they must pay interest to the lender. Interest rates are the annual percentage cost of borrowing funds in financial markets, where savings are matched with investment by financial intermediaries. There are both short and long term interest rates depending on the type of financial instrument that is used. Examples of short term interest rates include the official cash rate (determined by the Reserve Bank), credit card rates, business loan rates and overdraft rates for small and large businesses. Longer term interest rates include mortgages for residential housing, term loans for businesses and loans to governments through the sale of government bonds. There are a number of factors that influence the level of interest rates. Primarily the level of interest rates is determined by the demand and supply of loanable funds in financial markets. The demand for loanable funds is sourced from households, firms and governments that wish to borrow funds. These sectors may have a deficit in cash and therefore need to borrow funds from lenders who have a surplus in cash. The supply of funds in financial markets is sourced from the savings of households and firms as well as any surplus funds that governments may have accumulated through budget surpluses or the sale of public assets through privatisation. These surplus funds or the supply of loanable funds are deposited with financial intermediaries in return for interest payments. Financial intermediaries in turn, on-lend these surplus funds to borrowers at a higher rate of interest and make profits. If the overall demand for loanable funds exceeds the supply of loanable funds the general level of interest rates will rise. This situation could arise if there is a strong rate of economic growth, rising incomes and therefore more opportunities for consumption and investment spending. This would lead to a rise in borrowing relative to deposits of funds. However, if the rate of economic growth is below trend and there is rising unemployment and falling incomes, the demand for loanable funds will tend to be less than the supply of loanable funds. In such cases the general level of interest rates will tend to fall as financial intermediaries cut interest rates to attract borrowers for lending. It is important to note that financial intermediaries act like profit maximising firms in seeking to borrow funds from the public at lower rates of interest (i.e. borrowing rates) than they charge for lending to the public (i.e. lending rates). The difference between borrowing rates and lending rates is the interest rate spread or margin, used by financial intermediaries to pay costs and retain a margin for profit. Question 26 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 11 Question 26 continued A second important factor which influences the level of interest rates is the risk and reward principle. The higher the risk of a financial instrument the higher will be the interest rate charged by the lender to the borrower. The main sources of risk include the risk of default, the risk of lower purchasing power through higher inflation, and the loss of liquidity due to the varying terms to maturity of different financial assets. Therefore loans that are not secured by assets such as credit card loans and overdraft loans to businesses tend to attract a higher rate of interest than loans which are secured by assets such as mortgages. Related to the risk and reward principle is the increase in risk aversion of lenders during times of economic uncertainty and widespread loan defaults. This occurred during the Global Financial Crisis when banks and other intermediaries became more risk averse in their lending. The result was that access to global credit markets was restricted and the cost of global credit rose substantially. A third factor which influences the level of interest rates is the rate of inflation. Inflation is the general rate of increase in the price level over time. Higher inflation will erode the real return to lenders and to compensate for this loss, lenders will want to increase the rate of interest. In this sense there is a distinction between nominal and real rates of interest. If the nominal interest rate on a mortgage loan was 8% and the rate of inflation was 3%, the real rate of interest would be 5%. However if inflation rose to 5% mortgage lenders would seek to raise the nominal rate of interest to 10% to maintain the real interest rate or real return at 5%. This helps to explain why countries with rising inflation tend to have rising levels of interest rates. The level of interest rates is best referred to as the term structure of interest rates. The term structure of interest rates refers to the relationship between short term and long term interest rates. A normal yield curve which shows the relationship between short term and long term interest rates is upward sloping since short term interest rates are lower than long term interest rates. This is because there is a longer time to maturity for long term financial assets, and lenders must be compensated for their lack of liquidity since the loan may not be paid back in full, with interest, for up to 10 years. Also inflation can be expected to be higher in the longer term than the shorter term, so the loss of the lender’s purchasing power must be compensated for through a higher long term interest rate. However the term structure of interest rates can be influenced by the Reserve Bank’s determination of the cash rate in the cash market. A normal upward sloping yield curve as previously described is usually associated with an expansionary stance of monetary policy where the Reserve Bank has acted to reduce the official cash rate to encourage spending and a higher rate of economic and employment growth. For example, the global financial crisis and recession in the second half of 2008 impacted on Australian financial markets and the Australian economy. The immediate effects were a loss of consumer confidence, lower spending and output, and greater volatility in financial markets including the share market and credit markets. The response of the Australian government and Reserve Bank was quick and decisive: The Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 3% between September and December 2008 and a further 1.25% between February and April 2009. This lowered the cash rate from 7.25% to 3%. The Reserve Bank supported confidence and stability in the Australian financial system by injecting additional liquidity into the cash market to ensure adequate funds for exchange settlement. The Australian government also gave guarantees for bank deposits. These actions helped to create a normal yield curve as a lower cash rate led to lower short term and long term interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending to support economic and employment growth. The cash rate is the interest rate on overnight loans in the cash market. The Reserve Bank sets a target level for the cash rate each day and uses its open market operations to achieve the target. The Reserve Bank can also ease or tighten the stance of monetary policy by operating in the cash market as a buyer or seller of Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) and Repurchase Agreements (RPAs) to lower or raise the cash rate. It is through its market operations that the Reserve Bank can implement a change in the stance of monetary policy. This would be done to achieve its operational target of monetary policy, which is to keep CPI inflation between 2% and 3% over the economic cycle. Question 26 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 12 Question 26 continued The cash rate is generally determined by the demand and supply of cash in the cash market. The cash market performs the function of providing access to cash for large banks and other financial intermediaries to settle debts between themselves on a daily basis. All institutional participants in the cash market operate Exchange Settlement Accounts (ESAs) with the Reserve Bank of Australia. The balances in ESAs must be kept in surplus and the Reserve Bank pays interest (at below the cash rate) on these surplus funds. The cash rate remains fairly stable over time because the Reserve Bank ensures that the demand for cash is met by an equal supply of cash. If the demand for cash exceeded the supply of cash the Reserve Bank would inject more cash into the market by buying Commonwealth Government Securities and re-purchasing Repurchase Agreements from banks and other financial intermediaries. This is called liquidity management. On the other hand if the demand for cash was less than the supply of cash the Reserve Bank would sell CGS and RPAs to remove excess liquidity from the cash market and hold the cash rate at its target level. Between September 2008 and April 2009 the cash rate was cut six times, as an expansionary easing cycle was used by the Reserve Bank to support economic activity in Australia, as the GFC led to much weaker world growth and recessions in major advanced economies like the USA, Japan and Euro area. However, by the end of 2009 economic conditions had improved in Australia and the Reserve Bank began a tightening cycle by raising the cash rate by 1.5% between October 2009 and May 2010. This was done in six steps of 0.25%, resulting in the cash rate rising from 3% to 4.5%. The reason for this more contractionary stance of monetary policy was to contain inflationary pressures and expectations which were beginning to rise as the economic recovery strengthened in 2010. These actions led to a general rise in the level of interest rates in financial markets and tended to dampen spending and borrowing in the Australian economy. However the tightening cycle of rises in the cash rate were discontinued by the Reserve Bank between June 2010 and August 2010 as economic conditions deteriorated again in the global economy because of a Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe. This was sourced from rising budget deficits and public debt in countries such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and the UK which led to financial market volatility and uncertainty. NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 13 NSW INDEPENDENT TRIAL EXAMS – 2010 ECONOMICS Yr 11 PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION MAPPING GRID Question Section I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Section II 21(a) 21(b) 21(c) 21(d) 21(e) 22(a) 22(b) 22(c) 22(d) Section III 23 24 Section IV 25 26 Marks Outcome(s) assessed 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 P1, P2 P1, P2 P1, P11 P1, P8 P1, P3, P11 P1, P8 P1, P3 P1, P10 P1, P3, P11 P1, P8, P10, P11 P1, P2, P5 P1, P9, P11 P1, P2 P1 P1, P3 P1, P2, P3, P11 P1, P3 P1, P3 P1, P2, P11 P1, P2 1 1 2 2 4 2 2 2 4 P1 P1, P11 P1, P3 P1, P3 P1, P3, P6, P8, P10 P1 P1, P2, P5 P1, P2, P5 P1, P2, P3, P5, P6 20 20 P1, P3, P8, P10 P1, P2, P3, P5, P7, P8, P10 20 20 P1, P2, P5, P6, P7, P8, P10 P1, P2, P3, P5, P6, P7, P8, P10 NSW Independent Trial Exams 2010 – Economics Yr 11 Preliminary Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 14