Modern Macroeconomic Theory and Policy Summer School of Economics 2001 European University at St Petersburg Barry Harrison Senior Lecturer in Economics, Nottingham Trent University Course Goals: 1. 2. 3. To make participants familiar with modern macroeconomic theories and their practical use in policy decisions. To present the model course in advanced macroeconomics. To give participants new insights in the logic of syllabus development for a modern course in macroeconomic theory and policy. Outcomes: After completion of the course the participants are expected: 1 To be familiar with modern macroeconomic theories, to realise clearly their merits and demerits. 2 To be able to identify and emphasise the European perspective in macroeconomic courses. 3 To be able to develop curricula, oriented on latest achievements of macroeconomic theory, given the limits and constraints imposed by the existing programs. Transferable skills: After completion of the course the participants expected to be able to: 1. Work critically with modern literature on the subject. 2. Use diverse teaching techniques in relation to seminars: group and individual assignments and presentations, discussions, written tasks, etc. 3. Be aware of potential pitfalls in using different teaching methods and ways of coping with them. Teaching methodology and time schedule: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Traditional lectures (with the use of computers and OHP) Curriculum development seminars Problem solving seminars Other interactive sessions (question and answers, teaching methods, etc.) Examination (final test) Total teaching time 14 hours 8 hours 6 hours 6 hours 2 hours 36 hours The time schedule above includes only officially time tabled activities. All traditional lectures will place a special emphasis on the way of presenting the material to the audience. 1 Assessment strategies: 1. 2. Participants will prepare a coursework assignment which will be assessed within two days of submission and written feedback will be given. It will be related to the curriculum development (identification of important topics, assessment of the degree of difficulty and so on). Final two-hours test, similar to a typical graduate final examination. Participants will be assessed not only for their technical knowledge of the subject, but also for their ability to develop a typical course curriculum, problem identification and transferable skills. Topics, timetable and main readings Day 1 (July, 16): Morning lecture 1 What is macroeconomics? (1) Discussion of main problems in macroeconomics: mass unemployment, inflation and exchange rate instability, business cycles; Readings: Barro, R J and Grilli, V, European macroeconomics, Macmillan, 1994, Chapter 1. Burda, M and Wyplosz, C, Macroeconomics: a European text, Oxford University Press, 1997, Chapter 1. Hall, R E and Taylor, J B, Macroeconomics 3rd ed., Norton, 1986, Chapters 1 and 2 Parkin, M and Bade, R, Modern macroeconomics, Philip Allan, 1991, Chapters 1 and 2. Morning lectures 2-4: The Aggregate Supply and Demand Model (1) Simple static and dynamic versions; inflation, growth and businesses cycles; (2) Links with Phillips Curve, wage and price inflation, labour productivity and unemployment; (3) Explore within the static AS-AD model main differences between new Keynesians and new classical/monetarist schools, (4) The role of expectations Readings: Dornbusch, R and Fischer, S, Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill, Chapters 3-4. Hall, R E and Taylor, J B, Macroeconomics 3rd ed., Norton, 1986, chapters 6-7. Afternoon session (1.25 hours): Seminar on curriculum development: Participants, divided in groups, will critically assessed existing curricula and identify ways of their possible restructuring. 2 Program of the seminar 1. What are the current needs for advanced macroeconomic courses in your university? 2. To what extent are those needs satisfied? The above questions should be discussed separately for the undergraduate and graduate teaching. Afternoon problem solving session: (1.25 hours): Introduction to macroeconomics and the aggregate supply and demand model 1. 2. Discussion on the basic assumptions of the aggregate supply and aggregate demand models. Discussion of concepts of rational and adaptive expectations, time inconsistency, price and wage stickiness and the hysteresis effects. Day 2 (July, 17) Morning lectures 5-8: The Micro Foundations of Aggregate Demand and Supply. (1) Consumption and inter-temporal budget constraints; investment theories; government spending and taxation; the current account, the real exchange rate and external debt; money supply and demand; the IS-LM-BP model and aggregate demand (2) The labour market; demand and supply and the labour-leisure trade-off; market imperfections, efficiency wages, insider-outsider theories, overlapping wage contracts; the natural rate of unemployment; nominal versus real wage flexibility; the production function; from the labour market to aggregate supply Readings: Burda, M and Wyplosz, C, Macroeconomics: a European text, Oxford University Press, 1997. Chapters 5,6, 8. Dornbusch, R and Fischer, S, Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill, Chapter 5. Hall, R E and Taylor, J B, Macroeconomics 3rd ed., Norton, 1986, Chapters 12-13. Parkin, M and Bade, R, Modern macroeconomics, Philip Allan, 1991, Chapters 2-3. Sachs, J and Larrain, F, Macroeconomics in the global economy, Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1993, Chapters 15-16. Afternoon problem session: (2.5 hours) The Micro Foundations of Aggregate Demand and Supply 1 2 Discussion of the assumptions which underpin the micro foundations of aggregate demand and aggregate supply models. The causes of unemployment in different economic models. 3 Day 3 (July, 18) Morning lectures 9-12: An Introduction to Macroeconomic Policy (1) Instruments and targets; (2) Stabilisation policy versus supply-side policy; (3) Monetary/exchange rate policy versus fiscal policy; (4) Inside and outside lags; policy ineffectiveness proposition; (5) Time inconsistent polices; reputation and credibility; other constraints on policy making; international policy co-ordination Readings Barro, R J and Grilli, V, European macroeconomics, Macmillan, 1994, Chapter 22. Burda, M and Wyplosz, C, Macroeconomics: a European text, Oxford University Press, 1997, Chapter 10. Hall, R E and Taylor, J B, Macroeconomics 3rd ed., Norton, 1986, Chapter 18. Parkin, M and Bade, R, Modern macroeconomics, Philip Allan, 1991, Chapters 14-15. Afternoon session on teaching techniques: (2.5 hours): An Introduction to Macroeconomic Policy The session will concentrate on the discussion about the possible methods of introducing macroeconomic policy issues to students, and possible pitfalls and oversimplifications of the process. Day 4 (July, 19) Morning lectures 13-14: Demand Management Policy I - Fiscal Policy (1) The tax base; structural versus cyclical budget deficits; tax smoothing; (2) Automatic stabilisers; sustainable fiscal policy; crowding out; (3) Ricardian equivalence; international debt problems; fiscal policy in transition economies Readings Barro, R J and Grilli, V, European macroeconomics, Macmillan, 1994, Chapter 17. Morning lectures 15-16: Demand Management Policy II - Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy (1) Principles of monetary policy, reserve ratios, open market operations and interest rates; (2) Monetary targets versus fixed exchange rates; managed exchange rate systems; (3) Sterilisation; central bank independence; seignorage and the inflation tax; monetary problems in transition economies, dollarisation and the choice of nominal anchor 4 Readings Barro, R J and Grilli, V, European macroeconomics, Macmillan, 1994, Chapter 18. Burda, M and Wyplosz, C, Macroeconomics: a European text, Oxford University Press, 1997., Chapter 12, 13. Hall, R E and Taylor, J B, Macroeconomics 3rd ed., Norton, 1986, Chapter 19. Parkin, M and Bade, R, Modern macroeconomics, Philip Allan, 1991, Chapter 16. Afternoon curriculum development seminar (2.5 hours): Recapitulation and identification (with discussion) of tasks and subjects for the ‘curriculum development’ assessment Program of the seminar: 1. 2. Identify (prioritise) particular topics relevant for undergraduate and graduate students. How would you draft a curriculum for a) a short undergraduate course, b) a long undergraduate course, c) for a selected postgraduate course? By the end of this day assessment topics will be allocated to participants. Day 5 (July, 21) Morning lectures 17-20: Supply-side Policy. (1) Sources of economic growth; endogenous growth theories; (2) State intervention versus deregulation/market liberalisation; (3) Taxes, social security systems and incentives to work; labour market policies; (4) The capital and financial markets; the globalisation of business; (5) Supply-side policy in transition economies Readings: Barro, R J and Grilli, V, European macroeconomics, Macmillan, 1994, Chapter 18. Sachs, J and Larrain, F, Macroeconomics in the global economy, Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1993, Chapters 12, 13, 20. Afternoon problem solving session (2.5 hours): Demand and supply management policy Program of the seminar: 1. 2. 3. What are main contradictions in aggregate demand and supply policies? Is the demand or supply side policy more relevant for the transition economies? Is current European macroeconomic policy demand-oriented, or supply-oriented? 5 Day 6 (July, 22) There will be no formal classes and seminars on that day. Participants are expected to work on preparation of their assignment papers. Morning questions and answers session (4 hours): ‘curriculum development’ assignment. Afternoon is reserved for extensive individual consultations. Day 7 (July, 23) In the morning the assignment papers will be handed in and marked. Therefore this time is allocated for marking papers and preparation of feedback to the participants. Participants will use this time for their preparation for the final examination. Afternoon session on curriculum development (2 hours): General feedback to participants related to their assignment papers. Last minute question and answer session before the examination Day 8 (July, 24) Morning: written 2-hours examination Afternoon: marking papers Evening: Summing up and final discussion ‘where do we go from here?’ General References: Barro, R J and Grilli, V, European macroeconomics, Macmillan, 1994. Burda, M and Wyplosz, C, Macroeconomics: a European text, Oxford University Press, 1997. Dornbusch, R and Fischer, S, Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill Hall, R E and Taylor, J B, Macroeconomics 3rd ed., Norton, 1986. Parkin, M and Bade, R, Modern macroeconomics, Philip Allan, 1991. Sachs, J and Larrain, F, Macroeconomics in the global economy, Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1993. Notes: A pack of photocopied reading material for each day (journal articles, extracts from official reports, etc) will be provided to participants. 6