MODULE 1: BEST PRACTICES AND PRACTICAL
CHALLENGES FOR ASSESSING NATURAL RISKS
BY USING INDIAN METETROLOGICAL DATA
Module 1: (WBT InWent/GC21 Improve Disaster Risk Management in India by Using Knowledge-Base and Statistics)
Mail:
by
Klaus Röder
kroeder@gmx.net
INTRODUCTION
How can we learn more about disaster prone districts in a state that is
particularly subject to these disasters? Your use of the Indian
knowledgebase will expand your
work and portfolio. In this module,
you will improve your knowledge
about the districts using long-term
meteorological data and learn more
than is obvious at first glance. Here
you will become an expert analyzing
these data with statistical tools.
Backed by the acquired knowledge
your role of expertise in this field will
increase and you will be able to iden-
Flood in Bihar State (2009)
tify disaster prone districts. Also you
Which are the flood prone districts, which ones are relatively
will be able to relate hazards such as
save of flood? What can Meteorological Data tell us and how
drought, to rainfall data on district
can we best use these data? Wer stellt diese Fragen an wen?
level. ,
Was soll ich als Teilnehmer jetzt machen, nachdeem ich diese
Box gelesen habe? Darüber nachdenken? Mit dem Trainer dar-
CONTENT
über diskutieren? /KR: Hier soll man noch gar nicht machen,
einfach lesen, deshalb auch Einführung
1 TASK ........................................................................ 3
2 PROCESS .................................................................. 3
3 RESOURCES .............................................................. 4
3.1 Mandatory learning material to use ............................ 4
3.2 Useful Tools and Media ............................................. 5
3.3 Further readings ..................................................... 5
4 EVALUATION ............................................................. 5
5 CONCLUSION ............................................................ 8
6 POLL ......................................................................... 8
7 CREDITS & REFERENCES ............................................ 8
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
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1
TASK
 Identify the seasons and months of the year, when prevention and preparedness actions will be necessary for the chosen districts
 Identify the differences among the districts in rainfall patterns, peaks, length
and distribution
 Look for arguments to prove, that flood patterns have changed over the
years.
 Propose data sources and a data set to be used for the improved Disaster
Risk Management scenario according to the examples learned during the
Web Based Training (WBT)
 Analyse und justify the data and method to be used
 Propose a scheme for the districts of a state (e.g. Bihar) to be classified as
low, medium or high risk district regarding rainfall related disasters;
 Propose preparedness and prevention measures accordingly
 Write down the results in a WORD Document of 5 written pages and published on the Forum of the WBT of CG21, details in the process section
2
PROCESS
 Learn about rainfalls patterns and date in Bihar state (WBT, Mod 1, Unit 1
ff)
 Identify districts and areas according to the techniques learned about primary
rainfall data.
 Use EXCEL template to copy and analyze district rainfall patterns.
 Analyze peaks and periods of extensive rainfall.
 Analyze periods, extensions and deviations form “normal” rainfall
 Write down or show in the most catching way (use pictures and news reports
if possible), what your risk scenario is and where. Identify the area of your
case very clearly.
 Describe activities for pre-disaster DRM (Prevention, Mitigation and/or Preparedness) reflecting the findings of the previous analysis.
 Describe the phase of DRM you want to improve on, according to your results?
 Publish your findings/ results on the forum to inform other participants and
the tutors
 Describe the existing and relevant data for the chosen district, mentioning
also which data were missing for the analysis. A template for this is prepared
and should be used (Mod1_Template_EXCEL). Complete this template to
describe data like: Time series (e.g. rainfall)
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
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 Apart from EXCEL and other statistical tools (Graphs), you may use other
presentation media like flowcharts, summary tables, concept maps, or other
organizing structures. Present the results in the most catching and convincing
way.

The publication result should be a WORD Document of less than 5 pages and be published on the Forum of the WBT of CG21, it should contain the above and:
o personal insights
o create a summary;
o include a persuasive message or a journalistic account (try to
convince others of the relevance of your approach)
o a creative work, something new in this DRM scenario which has
not been used before
o You can use the EXCEL tools used in other modules or other
technical tools (e.g. computer programs) if the result and the
approach will be transparent to the reader

You should refer to the Module 1 of the WBT of GC21 for examples of
best practices using knowledgebase and statistics for improving Disaster Risk Management. You may want to use the content of the Best
Practices Modules as template for your report.

Feedback by the tutors in the forum of the WBT of CG21 is guaranteed
within an agreed period of 3 work days after publication
3
RESOURCES
In order to complete your task, you will have to access the below mentioned
online and offline resources. The orientation is mainly done through the previous WBT module showing examples and best practices how data can improve
knowledge and handle of natural risks. Some resources, like the EXCEL template, are mandatory to use while the use of some other resources like references to background information (like online and offline documentation) on
statistics, should be considered by the participant where appropriate.
3.1

Mandatory Tools, Media and Learning material to use
Meteorological Indicators: India Meteorological Department
http://www.imd.gov.in/

EXCEL template to be filled with existing, relevant, missing data essential for the task. A template for this is prepared
(Mod1_Template_EXCEL).
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
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3.2

Optional Tools and Media
You can use map service which provides visual reference to the areas
you are working on. For instance you can use “Maps of India”
http://www.mapsofindia.org/

The google sponsored website: The Gapminder beautifully shows, what
statistics can do for comparing life situations by using statistical indicators (here on an international scale). This site also helps you to analyse
indicators of development : http://tools.google.com/gapminder

There is also a software tool that has improved features for statistical
analysis and comparison, as compared to EXCEL.
http://www.statistixl.com
Sinece statistiXL builds-up on and extends the EXCEL features, you
don’t have to learn how to use an entirely new software application
from scratch.
3.3

Further readings
These documents are helpful to improve your knowledge on statistics,
terminology, methods and also of limits and abuses of statistics.
o
How to Lie With Statistics by Darrell Huff, Irving Geis
This is a book to arm the innocent against the wiles of the statistical
world, which manages to supply the reader with caution aplenty, with
understandable text and amusing illustration
o
A statistical Glossary by Valeri J.Easton and John H.McColl
http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/steps/glossary/alphabet.html
o
Bowermann, O´Connell ,Business Statistics in Practice
McGraw-Hill, 3rd Edition ISBN 0-07-247026-7
The book places great emphasis on its use of case studies, many of
which are authentic problems encountered by the authors, their colleagues or former students.

A good example, how to convince the audience using statistics and
gapminder Look at the videos by Hans Rosling
http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_e
ver_seen.html
4
EVALUATION
Your individual performance will be evaluated according to the following grid.
Your tutor will attribute credit points according to your performance regarding
completeness of your result and the methods and tools you used in your analysis
and presentation of the results. In each section you can reach 4 different levels
of achievement: Beginning (1), Developing (2), Accomplished (3) and ExemA Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
5
plary (4). You will receive a certificate of Excellence according to your performance. In total 100 points can be reached For each of the levels you gain an
equal share of points, e.g. for the evaluation in the first row (Completeness of
tasks given ) you will receive 15 points for reaching level 1, 30 for level 2, 45
for level 3 and 60 for the maximum. Equally you will receive for the evaluation
in the second row (Communication of methods and tools used) 10, 20, 30 and
40 points reaching the corresponding levels during the evaluation. . Don’t hesitate to ask your tutors if you have difficulties understanding this scheme or if
you disagree with the evaluation.
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
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Completeness of
tasks given
Beginning
Developing
Accomplished
Exemplary
1
2
3
4
Proposal of data
sources and data to
be used for the improved Disaster
Risk Management
description has been
published as text
Proposal of data
sources and data to be
used in EXCEL template have been published
Proposal of data sources and
data to be used in EXCEL
template + analysis and justification of method have
been published
Proposal of data sources and data
to be used in EXCEL template
+analysis and justification of
method + proposal of DRM
actions have been published
30 Points
Score
60
60 Points
45 Points
15 Points
Communication of
methods and tools
used
Only text used as
descriptive method
10 Points
Text used
+ EXCEL templates
completed and comprehensively commented
20 Points
Text description used
+ EXCEL templates completed and comprehensively
commented +other presentation and statistical methods
included.
30 Points
Text description used
+ EXCEL templates completed
and comprehensively commented +other presentation and statistical methods included,
+A solution / DRM plan is proposed based on Indian
knowledgebase for improvement
in convincing style
40 Points
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40
5
CONCLUSION
In this Webquest exercise you have shown that you can rely on existing
information on rainfall data in India in order to apply your knowledge for the
handling of some natural risks in your working area.
You may ask yourself, whether your abilities will change the Standard Operation Procedures of Disaster Risk Management in your working environment.
This, to some extent, will depend on you: How you are able to communicate
your knowledge to your colleagues and superiors. Try your best for the benefit
of those who suffer the consequences of a disaster or who are facing the risk of
being affected by one..
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POLL

We are interested to get to know your opinion about this Webquest.
Please answer the following questions, using this link [LINK].Did you
face difficulties to understand the reasoning for developing the individual steps when drafting your proposal/paper?

Do you think that your proposal reflects reality and that the use of the
Indian knowledgebase will improve Disaster Risk Management of your
working area?

Was the time estimated for the completion of this task sufficient in order to carry it out.

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Did you get useful comments from your tutors and other participants?
CREDITS & REFERENCES

Picture on page 2: copyright
http://www.freshnews.in/deora-to-flag-off-relief-material-for-flood-hitbihar-68799

We thank the creators of WebQuest who developed and programmed
the WebQuest page and the Design Patterns, so that participants can acquire the latest version of this template and training materials.
Published by InWEnt GmbH, 2010
CREATIVE COMMONS PUBLIC LICENSE,
Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/de/
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
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