MODULE 3: UNDERSTAND
CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF
DISASTERS AS DESCRIBED
BY STATISTICS
Module 3: (WBT InWent/GC21 Improve Disaster Risk Management in India by Using Knowledge-Base and Statistics)
Mail:
by
Klaus Röder
kroeder@gmx.net
INTRODUCTION
How can we predict future natural and industrial
disasters? We have pointed darts in our quiver, we
know about Indian knowledgebase and the statistical techniques. Which area, district or a state are
particularly subject to your working area and were
do we want to predict possible hazards and damages? For the past years, Indian knowledgebase has
collected information, which will be helpful to predict disasters. The combination of information
sources and forecasting techniques of statistics will
expand your working knowledge. You have become
or will become an expert with these data and forecast techniques improving your knowledge. Backed
by the acquired knowledge your role of expertise
will allow forecasting disaster riskss but will also
Landslide in Uttarakhand
point clearly to the uncertainties and limits of
prevision techniques for the benefit of Disaster
Could we predict a disaster and improver Pre-
Risk Management.
Disaster Risk Management? What are the techniques of forecasting and where are their limits
CONTENT
1 TASK ........................................................................ 3
2 PROCESS .................................................................. 3
3 RESOURCES .............................................................. 4
3.1 Mandatory learning material to use ............................ 4
3.2 Useful Tools and Media ............................................. 5
3.3 Further readings ..................................................... 5
4 EVALUATION ............................................................. 6
5 CONCLUSION ............................................................ 8
6 POLL ......................................................................... 8
7 CREDITS & REFERENCES ............................................ 8
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
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1
TASK
 Identify type of disaster, area and action: Prediction for the use of Prevention
and preparedness or relief, recovery and development of past-disasters
 Propose Data sources and a Data set to be used for the prediction of disasters
to improve the Disaster Risk Management according to the examples learned
during the Web Based Training (WBT)
 Identify reliability and differences of forecasts in districts / states about
effects and possible damages of disaster
 Look for arguments to prove, if data permits, that disaster forecast has
changed and can improve Disaster Risk Management.
 Analyse und justify the Data and Method to be used
 Propose forecasting method and results accordingly
 Write down the results in a WORD Document of 5 to 10 pages and published
on the Forum of the WBT of CG21, details in the process section
2
PROCESS
 Learn about forecasting disasters and possible damages, using the Bihar state
as an example (WBT, Mod 3, Unit 1 ff)
 Identify districts and areas according to the techniques learned about forecasting disasters.
 Describe technique according to the WBT content and refer to the best practice used there
 Use EXCEL template to analyze district / state disaster patterns and forecasting success.
 Write down or show in the most catching way (use pictures and news reports
if possible), what your forecasting disaster scenario is and where. Identify
the area of your case very clearly.
 Describe phase of DRM you want to improve according to your results?
 Describe action of Pre-disaster DRM (Prevention, Mitigation and/or Preparedness) or Past-Disaster DRM (Relief, Recovery and/or Development) reflecting the findings of the previous techniques and Analysis.
 Publish your subject on the forum to inform other participants and the tutors
 Describe the existing and relevant or missing data. A template for this is
prepared and should be used (Mod3_Template_EXCEL). Complete this template to describe forecasts with data like: time series, maps series, reports,
etc.
 Apart from EXCEL and other statistical tools (Graphs), you may use other
presentation media like flowcharts, summary tables, concept maps, or other
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
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organizing structures. Present the results in the most catching and convincing
way.

The publication result should be a WORD Document of less than 5
written pages (pictures, graphs and documentary can be additional) and
be published on the Forum of the WBT of CG21, it should contain the
above and:
o personal insights
o create a summary;
o include a persuasive message or a journalistic account (try to
convince others of the relevance of your approach)
o a creative work, something new in this DRM scenario which has
not been used before
o You can use the EXCEL tools used in other modules or other
technical tools (e.g. computer programs) if the result and the
approach will be transparent to the reader

You should refer to the Module 3 of the WBT of GC21 for examples of
best practices using knowledgebase and statistical techniques for improving Disaster Risk Management and you may use the content of the
Best Practices in the module as template for your report.

Feedback by the tutors on the Forum of the WBT of CG21 is guaranteed
within an agreed period of 3 work days after publication
3
RESOURCES
The following online and offline resources will need to access in order to complete the task. The orientation is mainly done through the previous WBT module showing examples and best practices how data can improve knowledge and
handling of natural risks for the benefit of Disaster Risk Management. Some
common resources, like the EXCEL template, are mandatory to use and others
like references to general information sources (statistics), can be considered by
a participant
3.1
Mandatory Tools, Media and Learning material to use

The national portal of India (http://www.india.gov.in/)

The States and Union Territories
(http://india.gov.in/knowindia/state_uts.php)

o
State government portals
o
and / or district websites
ISRO – Disaster Management Support Programme Decision Support
Centre http://www.nrsc.gov.in/
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
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
State Domestic Products for calculation of material losses
http://mospi.nic.in/rept%20_%20pubn/ftest.asp?rept_id=nad03_1999_2
000&type=NSSO

Population Data of India, Census of India
http://www.censusindia.gov.in/

Meteorological Indicators: India Meteorological Department
http://www.imd.gov.in/

EXCEL template to be filled with existing, relevant, missing data essential for the task. A template for this is prepared
(Mod3_Template_EXCEL).
3.2

Optional Tools and Media
Any Map service for providing visual reference to the arrears, like
“Maps of India”
http://www.mapsofindia.org/

What statistics can do for comparing life situations by using statistical
indicators (here on an international scale) is beautifully shown by the
google sponsored The Gapminder website, which helps you analyse indicators of development: http://tools.google.com/gapminder

Improving statistical analysis of EXCEL
http://www.statistixl.com
statistiXL greatly extends this feature set to encompass statistical analysis without the need to learn how to use an entirely new application
from scratch tool

A useful website: Forecasting Principles – Evidence based forecasting
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/
3.3

Further readings
These documents are helpful to improve your knowledge on statistics,
terminology, methods and also of limits and abuses of statistics.
o
How to Lie With Statistics by Darrell Huff, Irving Geis
Here is a book to arm the innocent against the wiles of the statistical
world, which manages to supply the reader with caution aplenty, with
understandable text and amusing illustration
o
A statistical Glossary by Valeri J.Easton and John H.McColl
http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/steps/glossary/alphabet.html
o
Bowermann, O´Connell ,Business Statistics in Practice
McGraw-Hill, 3rd Edition ISBN 0-07-247026-7
o
The book places great emphasis on its use of case studies, many of
which are authentic problems encountered by the authors, their colleagues or former students.
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
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o
Disasters by design: a reassessment of natural hazards in the United States Von Dennis S. Mileti
JOSEPH HENRY PRESS • 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. • Washington D.C. 20418 ISBN 0-309-06360-4

A good example, how to convince the audience using statistics and
gapminder Look at the videos by Hans Rosling
http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_e
ver_seen.html
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EVALUATION
Your individual performance will be evaluated according to the following grid.
Your tutor will attribute credit points according to your performance in the two
different sections. In each section you can reach 4 different levels of achievement: Beginning (1), Developing (2), Accomplished (3) Exemplary (4) and you
will receive a certificate of Excellence according to your performance. So a
total of 100 points can be reached. Don’t hesitate to ask your tutors on the discussion forum of the WBT/GC21 site if you have difficulties understanding this
scheme or if you disagree with the evaluation. For each of the levels you gain
an equal share of points, e.g. for the evaluation in the first row (Completeness
of tasks given ) you will receive 15 points for reaching level 1, 30 for level 2,
45 for level 3 and 60 for the maximum. Equally you will receive for the evaluation in the second row (Communication of methods and tools used) 10, 20, 30
and 40 points reaching the corresponding levels during the evaluation.
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
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Completeness of
tasks given
Beginning
Developing
Accomplished
Exemplary
1
2
3
4
Identification of
type of disaster,
Proposal of Data
sources and forecasting technique to
be used for the improved Disaster
Risk Management
description has been
published as text
Proposal of Data
sources and Data to
be used in EXCEL
template have been
published
Communication of
methods and tools
used
Text Description
used as Descriptive
method
Score
Proposal of Data sources and
Proposal of Data sources and a
a Data to be used in EXCEL
Data to be used in EXCEL temtemplate +Analysis and justi- plate +Analysis and justification
fication of method have been of method, forecasting techniques
published
+ proposal of DRM actions have
been published
60
Text Description used + EXCEL
templates completed. Data
sources aptitude for forecasting
Text Description used Text Description used + EXanalyzed. Presentation of statisti+ EXCEL templates CEL templates completed and
cal methods included. Forecastcompleted and com- map sources analyzed. Presening and limits assessment includprehensively comtation and statistical methods
ed and a solution is proposed
mented
and techniques included.
based on Indian knowledgebase
for improving the Disaster Risk
Management in convincing style
40
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and Statistics
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CONCLUSION
You have proven here how to use forecastig techniques and information of the
Indian knowledgebase to improve knowledge and handling of natural risks in
your working area for the benefit of Disaster Risk Management.
You may ask yourself, if your abilities will change the Standard Operation Pr ocedures of Disaster Risk Management in your working environment. This, to
some extent, will depend on you: How you are able to communicate your
knowledge to your colleagues and superiors. Try your best for the benefit of the
people impaired or in risk of being affected by disasters.
6
POLL
Please vote in the poll for this module which you find in the GC21 website.

Did you face difficulties to understand the reasoning for developing this
proposal?

Do you think that your proposal reflects reality and that the use of the
Indian knowledgebase will improve Disaster Risk Management of your
working area?

Was the learning time and pervious modules sufficient to complete the
task?

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Did you get useful comments from your tutors and other participants?
CREDITS & REFERENCES
Picture on page 2: copyright DIGITALGLOBE
http://www.flickr.com

Credits to the Creators of WebQuest: The WebQuest Page and the Design Patterns, so that participants can acquire the latest version of this
template and training materials.
Published by InWEnt GmbH, 2010
CREATIVE COMMONS PUBLIC LICENSE,
Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/de/
A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and
Statistics
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