Introduction
1. In the late 1980's, the Government of Hong Kong took two decisions which
were to produce major changes in the nature and scope of higher education.
The first of these, taken in 1988, was that all students entering first degree
programmes would in future do so following a two year sixth form course
leading to the Advanced Level Examination. The second, taken in 1989, was
that there should be a massive expansion of opportunity for undergraduate
education.
2. The structural change, which had particular implications for the Chinese
University of Hong Kong because of its previous practice of taking most of its
entrants after one year sixth form courses, was to be implemented by
1996-97. The expansion of first year, first degree places was to be completed
by 1994-95.
3. This interim report describes progress with the implementation of both of the
Government's decisions. It does, however, also look beyond the conclusion of
those changes, to the triennium 1995/98 and to the period up to and beyond
2001. Because this is an interim report, we do not merely describe and
propose, but we also ask questions. It is our hope that our final report will be
informed by a dialogue between Government and the UPGC in trying to find
answers.
The Revised Structure of Tertiary Education
4. In 1988, as a result of the recommendations of the Education Commission's
Report No. 3 (ECR 3), the Government took a number of decisions which are
given in Annex A. The most important of these was the move to a two year
sixth form and A level examination for all entrants to first degree courses. The
Chinese University of Hong Kong had hitherto taken the majority of its
students after one year in the sixth form and thus offered four year
undergraduate courses rather than the three year courses given in all other
UPGC institutions.
5. The Chinese University is now moving to a credit unit system in which the
normal expectation is that a student entering after Secondary 7 will gain a
degree following three years' study. The target percentages three year
entrants are 50% for 1992/93, 70% for 1993/94 and 100% for 1994/95. This
change has been a very difficult one for the university, involving not just the
re-design of courses and the awkwardness of running four-year and
three-year courses simultaneously, but more fundamental debates about the
university's educational objectives. Great credit must be given to the staff of
CUHK who have worked very hard to accomplish this transition successfully.
6. Other Government decisions concerning course length (see Annex A) have
occasioned little difficulty. In the interest of giving opportunity to the maximum
number of potential entrants, the UPGC has discourage increasing the length
of undergraduate courses beyond three years, but there may be a small
number of cases in the future where this can be justified.
7. The Government's decision about the introduction of joint admissions
procedures has been implemented in two stages. An interim Joint University
and Polytechnic Admission System (JUPAS) was introduced in 1990-91,
involving conditional offers at Secondary 6 Level, and this has been changed
intoits final form, with offers after A Level, for entrants in 1994-95. To
complement JUPAS, the Polytechnics and the institutions of the Vocational
Training Council have introduced for their 1993-94 intake to sub-degree
courses a Joint Admission Scheme for Polytechnics, Technical Institutes and
Colleges (JASPIC).
8. The Government's request for the institutions to consider extending teaching
time has met with only a modest response, mainly in complementary and
foundation studies and remedial language courses, and there are no funding
implications. The introduction of a credit unit system, also suggested by the
Government, has occurred in the form of local schemes, but its systematic
introduction on an inter-institutional basis is regarded as having a lower priority
than other changes.
9. The remaining decision by Government arising from ECR 3 was that additional
resources should be provided for the remedial teaching of English. In fact no
extra Government money was forthcoming for 1991-95, but the UPGC
earmarked $25m in 1991-92, $30m in 1992-93, $35m in 1993-94 and $40m in
1994-95 to be added to the institutions' existing expenditure on language
enhancement. The subject is a very important one, and institutions have been
required to submit to the UPGC assessment reports on the language ability of
their entrants and evaluation analyses of the effectiveness of their language
enhancement programmes. We return to the matter of language capability in
paragraph 25.
Expansion, 1991-95
10. There had been growth of the UPGC institutions throughout the 1980's, but in
October 1989 the Government announced its decision to undertake a massive
expansion of tertiary education. The scale of the enterprise can be measured
by the growth in the participation rate (the number of first year, first degree
places available, compared with the size of the relevant age group (17-20)):
Table: Percentage of relevant age group for whom FYFD
places available
11. It was the Government's intention that by 1994-95 the participation rate should
reach 18%. In the initial planning it was believed that this would require the
provision of 15,000 first year, first degree (FYFD) places by that year, but
revised population figures derived from the 1991 census led to this being
reduced to 14,500.
12. Although Government defined its needs in relation to undergraduate provision,
it deferred much more to advice from the UPGC and the institutions
concerning postgraduate numbers. There are many considerations here, often
pulling in contrary directions. As far as research postgraduates are concerned,
they are needed by the institutions themselves for a number of reasons. One
is that they provide the future academic staff, and we were conscious that the
lack of postgraduates in the past meant that almost none of the staff needed
for the current expansion could come from within Hong Kong. Another reason
for having research postgraduates is that, particularly in laboratory-based
subjects, they provide the labour force upon which staff research depends.
Postgraduates often also make a valuable contribution to teaching.
13. The extent to which the community, as opposed to the institutions, needs
trained research workers is debatable. Hong Kong industry tends to import the
results of basic research rather than undertake it. But evaluation of the
usefulness of others' research may not be possible unless one has research
experience oneself. Certainly the steady upgrading of desirable skills in many
forms of employment in Hong Kong suggests that the demand for
post-doctoral labour will grow.
14. Whatever may be the demand for those with research training, the institutions'
capacity to provide them was clearly limited by the number of staff competent
to supervise research students and the resources - human, equipment and
library - available. We were, however, encouraged by the Government's
acceptance that the time had come to put rather more resources into research
via various agencies including the creation of the Research Grants Council.
15. The demand for taught postgraduates is in some professional areas (such as
law or teacher education) quite well defined and reasonably predictable. In
others such as engineering or management it can fluctuate. This is, however,
the one activity where higher education institutions can respond very rapidly to
the needs of commerce and industry, providing specialist courses to
disseminate new knowledge or for the training or re-training of staff to meet
changing employment opportunities. We have little doubt that the need for
taught postgraduate courses of this kind will grow with the increasing
sophistication of employment in Hong Kong. Additionally, taught postgraduate
courses are in some subjects now required as precursors to research
degrees. The overall level of provision depends on demand, on the source of
funding, and on priorities within higher education.
16. The Government's proposals for the expansion of tertiary education covered
not only the UPGC-funded institutions. They also envisaged some transfer
(within constant total numbers) of sub-degree places from the Polytechnics to
the institutions of the Vocational Training Council (VTC). At the same time the
Government established an Open Learning Institute to provide higher
education, mainly for adults, through part-time distance learning.
17. Taking into account all of the considerations in paragraphs 10 to 16 above,
together with the physical capacities of existing and projected buildings, the
UPGC advised Government that the expansion 1991-95 should be
accomplished by the provision of places by institution, by level and by year as
shown in Annex B. This result was, of course, only achieved after an
enormous amount of work by the institutions in academic and financial
planning, complicated by substantial last-minute revisions when the 1994-95
FYFD target was changed from 15,000 to 14,500 places (see paragraph 11).
18. It is too early to comment on all aspects of progress in the expansion of higher
education 1991-95, but one area where there was considerable concern, staff
recruitment, seems to be satisfactory. It was expected that obtaining some
3,000 academic staff over a comparatively short period, nearly all from outside
Hong Kong, might prove difficult, both in terms of numbers and quality.
However, world recession and stagnation in academic development
elsewhere, combined with vigorous recruitment by the institutions supported
by joint publicity efforts, seems so far to have produced good results in most
disciplines.
19. Another initial worry was that in the middle years of the expansion there might
be difficulty in recruiting enough well-qualified matriculants. Enrolment figures
for 1992-93, however, now show that the institutions have over-filled their
FYFD places for that year by 1,083 students. There has been concern
expressed about the proficiency of the lowest graded entrants, particularly with
regard to language skills, but it must be remembered that by world standards,
Hong Kong is still admitting a relatively small fraction of the age group to
tertiary education.
20. The UPGC will continue to monitor the 1991-95 expansion closely both in
terms of numbers and quality.
Higher Education after 1995
21. In considering the development of higher education after 1995, the UPGC has
two tasks. The first is, in dialogue with Government, to determine the long term
role of higher education in Hong Kong. The second task, more pragmatic but
interdigitated with the first, is to give specific advice for the triennium 1995-98.
The long term view is partly philosophical and partly numerical. The numerical
data are only available up to 2001, which is why we have titled our interim
report "Higher Education, 1991-2001", but the philosophical considerations
extend well beyond that date.
22. One very important question which needs to be addressed is the balance of
provision between initial higher education and the updating and re-orientation
of knowledge which may be required throughout an individual's working life.
Hitherto the emphasis in Hong Kong has been largely on first degrees, with
the UPGC-funded institutions playing the major role. Elsewhere in the world,
the last few years have seen an upsurge in the demand for continuing
professional education (CPE). The pressure has come partly from employers,
seeking a better or more appropriately skilled workforce, partly from
individuals hoping to enhance their career prospects and partly from
customers dissatisfied with out-of-date services. It seems very probable that a
similar demand will grow in Hong Kong.
23. We have already commented on one aspect of this "through life" education in
paragraph 15 - postgraduate courses taught in academic departments of
UPGC institutions, and inspired to some extent by the research being
undertaken there. The need, however, is much more diverse than that,
ranging from a single day on a narrow topic to part-time courses spread over
several years. Provision may be made by UPGC-funded institutions through
extra mural or CPE departments, by the OLI, or in some cases by industry
itself. The mode of delivery may be within institutions, at the work place or by
distance learning. In addition to the improvement or reshaping of employment
skills, there is likely in an increasingly affluent and sophisticated society to be
a growth also in demand for "leisure" skills and for courses in the arts and the
more accessible popular sciences.
24. Both the work and leisure elements will place an increasing load on the
UPGC-funded and other institutions, and we need to be sure that that load is
supported by separate and adequate financial provision and not by diverting
block grant funds intended for other purposes. Much of the cost of CPE or
"leisure" courses should be met by the employer or the student, but there may
still be a need for a Government input, particularly in providing for
development into new areas. We are undertaking a study of continuing
education in Hong Kong and we shall be returning to this matter in our final
report.
25. The transfer of sovereignty over Hong Kong to China in 1997 means that the
role of the UPGC-funded institutions has to be considered in the context of the
hinterland in ways which have not obtained hitherto. There are at least three
possible scenarios:
i.
The institutions should limit their interests to local student recruitment
and the local labour market. Teaching might gradually be given more
and more in Cantonese. In time the institutions could become
indistinguishable from many similar ones in the neighbouring province.
ii.
The institutions should limit their interests to local recruitment and the
local labour market, but should make a positive stand on bilingualism.
This would require much more effort than is being made at present.
Their graduates would be distinguished from those in the hinterland
primarily because of their communication skills (including fluency in
English) and this would help to maintain Hong Kong's international
position.
iii.
The institutions should incorporate centres of excellence having local,
regional and international functions. They should provide very high
quality bilingual manpower for both Hong Kong and the hinterland and
should act as points of reference, particularly in Business and Social
Studies and in innovative science and technology for developments in
Southern China and more widely. Some undergraduate students and
many postgraduate students would be recruited from outside Hong
Kong.
26. The first of these options more or less represents a policy of drift. The second
requires modest additional resources and, more important, an effort of will on
the part of the institutions. The third option is the one favoured by the UPGC,
since the Committee believes that if Hong Kong is to retain a leading position
in the commercial and industrial development of China and the Pacific rim, it
will need world-class higher education institutions. The only justification for the
additional resources which would be needed for this option is the benefit to
Hong Kong itself. In the next paragraph we describe in a little more detail
some of the implications of option (iii).
27.
a. There is no such thing as an excellent university. Indeed it is only
rarely that every part of an academic department can be said to be of
excellent quality. What we hope to foster within our institutions is a
number of excellent groups, recognised internationally as of equal
status to their peers in the same subject area, and justifying the
investment in state-of-the-art facilities and activity which will maintain
them among the world leaders. We hope that a significant proportion of
these "centres of excellence" will be working in areas of direct interest
to Hong Kong industry, commerce and culture and that their existence
will precipitate curriculum development which is also locally and
regionally orientated.
b. The existence of internationally recognised "centres of excellence" has
a catalytic effect in an institution far beyond the subjects directly
concerned. It produces a liveliness and confidence in teaching and
research and in overseas contacts which will help in the production of
the high quality bilingual manpower to which we referred in paragraph
25.
c. Undergraduates at world-class institutions benefit from contact with
fellow students from other countries and other cultures, and the
institution and the host country almost certainly enjoy long term
advantages in such areas as recruitment, diplomacy and trade. We
believe that Hong Kong should encourage a small number of such
external undergraduates, particularly but not exclusively from the
Pacific rim. The numbers should be within approved targets.
d. The arguments which exist for recruiting external undergraduates
apply much more forcibly to postgraduates. There are no national
boundaries to intellectual enquiry, and high grade institutions require
an influx of ideas from all over the world. Movement of postgraduate
students (and staff) is a prerequisite for maintaining a leading position.
We would hope that our institutions might have up to one-third of their
postgraduate students from outside Hong Kong. In the sciences, most
of these would be from North America, Japan and Europe, but we
would hope also to see students from such countries as China and
Russia, which have excellence in more limited areas. Again, the
numbers would be within approved targets.
e. The creation of centres of excellence is not something which can be
done by Government or the UPGC. They can only be facilitators and
motivators. The prime movers must be enthusiastic and committed
staff within the institutions, supported by organisational structures
which
reward
initiative
and
encourage
the
inter-institutional
collaboration (intra and extra Hong Kong) which is essential to high
level research and teaching.
f.
The purpose of investing in world-class higher education institutions in
Hong Kong is to improve the economic performance of Hong Kong
itself, but the existence of such institutions and the opportunities which
they would offer, particularly in such areas as technology transfer,
would undoubtedly be of benefit to the hinterland as well.
g. It is very difficult to predict a precise cost for the kind of development of
our institutions which we envisage in option (iii). However, we believe
that a realistic figure is of the order of 10% above current projections.
The Committee is at present engaged in a number of measures,
including radical changes to our funding methodology, which are
expected to produce efficiency gains of some 5%. We therefore
suggest that option (iii) could be achieved for a net additional
investment of about 5%.
28. A decision as to the future role of our institutions cannot be delayed for very
long. There will be universities in southern China with ambitions similar to
those in paragraphs 25(ii) and (iii). The only advantages that the Hong Kong
institutions possess are a few years' head start and an edge in areas like
human resource base, infrastructure, libraries, etc. We believe that
Government should treat as a matter of urgency the formulation of a new
higher education policy which takes into account, inter alia, the changing
relationship with China, and the possible import of students and export of
graduates worldwide, and technology transfer. The adoption of wider goals for
Hong Kong's tertiary institutions could have implications for the 1995-98
triennium, and we return to the point in later paragraphs.
Student Numbers, 1995-2001
29. The optimal provision of student places at the undergraduate level is
conditioned by a number of factors of which the two most important are the
supply of young people desiring higher education and qualified to benefit from
it, and the employment opportunities for those graduating. Choosing the
number of postgraduate places is a more complex matter and much more
bound up with the differing perceived roles for the system which are described
in paragraphs 21 to 28. Even excluding roles external to Hong Kong,
considerations such as those in paragraphs 12 to 15 always need careful
evaluation.
30. In August 1992 we obtained from the Secretary for Education and Manpower a
projection of the number of matriculants possessing at least two A-level
passes and at least a grade E in use of English, which showed only slow
growth up to 2001:
Year
Matriculants
1995
18,000
1996
18,650
1997
19,000
1998
19,300
1999
19,450
2000
19,550
2001
19,700
Of these matriculants, about 980 may be assumed to take up places in
Colleges of Education or on sub-degree courses requiring A-level entry. On
the other hand, there is a demand for FYFD places from qualified entrants
other than current year matriculants of about 1,500. The total possible entry to
the UPGC institutions thus becomes:
Year
Max. poss.
entry
1995
18,520
1996
19,170
1997
19,520
1998
19,820
1999
19,970
2000
20,070
2001
20,220
which is to be compared with the 14,500 FYFD places available. The ratio of
places to potential entrants is over 70% throughout the period, and this would
seem to be entirely adequate in meeting needs from within Hong Kong. A
decision to extend recruitment outside the territory (see paragraphs 25(iii) and
27(c)) could change this position slightly.
31. In December 1991, the Education and Manpower Branch published a
projection of manpower supply and requirements titled "Manpower Outlook in
the 1990's" (MO). This projection states (MO paragraph 5.16) : "The major
area of concern will be the manpower shortfall at the sixth form level. At
present, sixth form education is available to just about one third of the children.
Thus, there is still much scope for expanding the provision of education at this
level in order to increase future supply." Any change of Government policy
which increased the proportion of children offered sixth form education would
clearly have profound effects on the calculations in paragraph 30. It has to be
recognised that additional sixth formers, whatever the motivation for their
production, are likely to be dissatisfied unless there is some corresponding
increase in the provision of FYFD places.
32. "Manpower Outlook in the 1990's" suggests (MO Table 5.2) that there will be a
demand for 268,000 workers possessing first degree or higher qualifications in
2001, and that the available supply will be 291,000 of whom 114,800 will be
new entrants to the workforce during 1997-2001, and 176,200 will be survivors
from those in employment prior to 1997. The new entrants (MO paragraph
2.11) are divided into 20,900 immigrants and returned emigrants, 30,700
returned overseas graduates and 63,200 local graduates (including a small
number from non-UPGC-funded institutions). The last figure is based upon
15,000 FYFD places throughout the period 1997-2001, and assumes no
wastage. If the FYFD places are reduced to 14,500 and allowance is made for
historic attrition rates, the estimate of local production is reduced by about
8,000 and the gap between supply and demand in 2001 becomes 15,000.
33. An excess of 15,000 graduates in the labour force in 2001 (5.5%) seems
comfortable enough and certainly provides no reason to increase FYFD
places up to that year. It is, however, worth looking at the assumptions on
which this is based:
i.
the "survivors" figure of 176,200 is based upon an emigration rate
identical to that in 1990. Emigration of the highly qualified may well
fluctuate considerably depending on perceptions of opportunity within
and outside Hong Kong. Changes of this figure of a few thousand
could easily occur.
ii.
the 20,900 immigrants and returned emigrants are subject to the same
considerations as the survivors, but because they must make a
positive decision to come to Hong Kong, larger fluctuations (say 20%)
would not be unexpected. The extent to which graduates from China
may wish or be able to work in Hong Kong in future adds another
uncertainty to the size of this group.
iii.
the 30,700 returning overseas graduates may well be influenced by
improving opportunities of employment in their countries of study as
the world moves out of economic recession, and delay their return or
not return at all. There is the further point that some of these may
prefer to graduate in Hong Kong if overseas education becomes
increasingly expensive. Fluctuations in the balance of supply and
demand of a few thousand are readily possible.
iv.
on the demand side, some employers believe that the "Manpower
Outlook in the 1990's" projections are underestimates.
v.
there is no provision for supplying labour to the region (see paragraph
25(iii)). The situation here is complex. The export of both work and
graduate workers from Hong Kong to China may have no effect on
demand, but if there is increased opportunity for work expansion,
demand may rise. Conversely, when work is exported, graduate
workers may be attracted from non-Hong Kong sources and demand
for HK production of graduates will fall. In this context, a recent study
commissioned by the Business and Professionals Federation (BPF)
suggests that our tertiary institutions should "be required to offer more non-degree, and
graduate
and
conjunction
executive
with
overseas
programmes
and
in
Mainland
universities."
None of these uncertainties gives reason to increase undergraduate
places at present, but the situation should be closely monitored and
the analysis of data relevant to the assumptions should continue.
34. Although the overall balance of graduate supply and demand up to 2001 at
present appears satisfactory, there may within a given total be variations in
demand for particular subject skills. One such is the Government's recent
request for additional graduate teachers (see paragraph 40). "Manpower
Outlook in the 1990's" (MO Table I-2) gives some useful information, but more
work is needed, possibly using institutions' own records of graduate
employment, to relate occupations to first degree subjects, and thus
occupational trends to changes in provision.
35. On the postgraduate side, decisions about numbers will depend to some
extent on the resolution of the questions raised in paragraphs 21 to 28. In the
short term, after considering arguments similar to those adumbrated in
paragraphs 12 to 15, we believe that there should be a modest increase in
both research and taught postgraduates. We are particularly conscious that
this highest echelon of qualified manpower is the most volatile in terms of
emigration since there are always good employment opportunities elsewhere.
In the longer term, the supply of postgraduate labour to China may be an
important role for Hong Kong's tertiary institutions.
The Triennium 1995-98
36. An early decision by Government favouring an enhanced regional role for
higher education (paragraph 28) could have an influence on student numbers
during the next triennium, but at present this is difficult to quantify. Pending
such a decision, we propose in line with the arguments of the preceding
paragraphs that the triennium 1995-98 should be a period of consolidation as
far as undergraduate numbers are concerned, with total intake static at 14,500
FYFD places. The roll-on effect of increasing intakes in earlier years ("natural
growth") means that total undergraduate numbers will increase by about 12%
over the triennium.
37. We envisage taught postgraduate numbers increasing at about 8% per
annum, and research postgraduates at about 5% per annum, thus adding
nearly 900 to each group. Sub-degree numbers will remain almost static,
following significant decline in the UPGC institutions during 1991-95.
38. Having determined overall numbers for the system, we need to distribute
these between the institutions. Our choices here are necessarily influenced by
physical limitations and by our view of the roles of the institutions and the ways
in which they can best contribute to the needs of Hong Kong.
39. The UPGC has recently promulgated a document entitled "Higher Education
in Hong Kong", in which it describes the roles of the seven institutions for
which the Committee is responsible. This document is reproduced in Annex C,
and gives the roles of the institutions which the UPGC will use for planning and
funding purposes "in the foreseeable future". The "foreseeable future"
certainly covers the 1995-98 triennium and probably well beyond it.
40. Our conclusions as to student numbers by institution, level and year for
1995-98 are given in Annex D. This Annex can be combined with Annex B to
show the complete pattern of the expansion period and its aftermath. In
addition to the student numbers shown in Annex D, we have to take account of
the recommendations in Education Commission Report No. 5 for an increase
in the number of graduate teachers. The recommendations and our proposals
are given in Annex E.
41. Although 1995-98 is to be a period of consolidation, we do not intend it to be a
period of stagnation. In particular, we propose, in consultation with the
institutions, to change radically the basis on which we distribute recurrent
funding. Hitherto, this has been determined by input measures such as
student numbers, average salaries, a priori assumptions about relative
student-staff ratios and so on. We propose to move to a system which is much
more output related. We hope eventually to develop the capacity to reward
good performance in both teaching and non-teaching activities, and we shall
be discussing with the institutions concepts of performance in teaching,
research, scholarship, consultancy, design, creation, interaction with the
professions and other areas which we believe make valuable contributions to
personal, institutional and community development.
42. The changes described in the preceding paragraph will require us to be able to
measure quality of performance and output. We shall be consulting the
institutions as to how best this may be done. Irrespective of our desire to
change our funding methodology, we believe that there will be increasing
pressure from the community for intelligible quality assurance in the
institutions which it funds and to this end the UPGC will be conducting quality
audits. We also believe that Hong Kong will wish to be assured that those
institutions use the funds which they are given in cost-effective ways, and this
is something to which we shall be giving increased attention during the
1995-98 triennium.
Further work
43. It is not our intention to draw conclusions in this interim report by the UPGC,
except in proposing student numbers for the triennium 1995-98. Before we
write our final report, we expect to have a much fuller picture of the successes
and failures of both the revision of the structure of higher education and the
massive expansion of numbers in which the institutions are at present
engaged.
44. But a clearer picture of the past is not sufficient. We need a clearer vision of
the future. Hong Kong must take a view on what role it wishes its higher
education institutions to play, particularly post-1997. As we have described in
paragraphs 22 to 24, we are studying the balance between initial and
continuing higher education. Partly bound up with this is the utilisation of our
capital plant and such issues as space norms. We shall be commenting on
both of these matters in our final report. But even more important is the stance
which we wish our institutions to take. Is their role to be local or regional? Is it
to be inward-looking or outward-looking? How much should be invested and
by whom?
45. We have already given our opinion (paragraph 26) that Hong Kong needs, for
its own economic health, world class higher education institutions which will
draw upon and contribute to China and the Pacific rim. But this implies growth,
both in quantity and quality, and only Government (which must be the main
provider) can decide whether to make the necessary investment. That
decision is needed urgently if our higher education institutions are to keep
pace with development by others not very far way, and not to drift, by default,
into becoming minor players in the Asian tertiary education scene.
46. Our final report will address these issues in more detail. It needs to be
informed by a dialogue between the Government and its higher education
constituency, and that dialogue should begin as soon as possible.
Reference
"Hong Kong 21 - A Ten Year Vision and Agenda to Hong Kong's Economy"
Report of a consultancy undertaken by Booz, Allen & Hamilton for the BPF (page 50)