Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
GOOGLE INC. (GOOG)
#1 REAL REVENUE GROWTH
NOMINAL REVENUE GROWTH
35.00%
#2 SUSTAINABLE REVENUE GROWTH
PRICE ADJUSTED REVENUE GROWTH
29.7%
28.3%
NOMINAL REV GROWTH
35.00%
PRICE ADJ REV
#3 PRICING POLICY
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
GP MARGIN CHANGE
30.00%
3.30
25.00%
3.20
20.00%
20.00%
3.10
15.00%
15.00%
30.00%
12.9%
13.4%
12.3%
2.90
5.00%
2.80
0.00%
0.00%
2.70
2009
2010
2008
2011
#4 OPERATING EXPENSE CONTROL
NOI$
GP$
NOI%
GP%
2009
70.00%
2010
$25,000,000
60.00%
NET OPER INC
$20,000,000
40.00%
$15,000,000
$10,000,000
20.00%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
$4,000,000
($2,000,000)
$0
($312,000)
($2,000,000)
2009
2010
2008
2011
#8 RETURN on ASSETS (ROA)
RETURN on ASSETS
100.00%
ADJUSTED ROA
90.00%
$40,000,000
ADJUSTED CFBF DEBT FREE
$2,000,000
2008
REQUIRED WORKING CAPITAL CASH
CFBF DEBT FREE
$4,000,000
#7 EXCESS CASH
ACTUAL CASH
$50,000,000
2011
$6,000,000
$6,875,000
$6,000,000
$0
$0
0.00%
2010
$8,000,000
$8,000,000
$2,000,000
0.00%
2009
$10,000,000
$8,890,000
$5,000,000
10.00%
2008
0.50%
0.18%
#6 DEBT FREE CASH FLOW
$3,582,000
30.00%
0.27%
CFBF ACTUAL
$12,000,000
EBITDA
$12,000,000
$10,000,000
50.00%
1.19% 0.85% 1.00%
2007
2011
#5 EBITDA to ACTUAL CASH FLOW
CORE OPER EXP%
CFBF ACTUAL
$30,000,000 $14,000,000
80.00%
2.00%
1.82%
1.63%
1.50%
10.00%
6.7%
2008
2.50%
2.37%
3.00
9.2%
5.00%
10.00%
GP MARK-UP INDEX
3.00%
2.56%
23.8%
25.00%
GP MU INDEX EFFECT
3.40
70.00%
$20,000,000
60.00%
2010
2011
#9 WORKING CAPITAL NEEDS
"TOTALLY EFFICIENT ROA"
87.6%
80.00%
$30,000,000
2009
68.0%
75.0%
APs & Other %
70.00%
NIAT %
UNEARN INC%
LOC %
ARs & INV %
60.00%
50.00%
58.2%
40.00%
50.00%
$10,000,000
($2,260,000)
$0
30.00%
40.00%
($4,228,000)
($11,958,000)
($10,634,000)
($10,000,000)
30.00%
20.00%
12.0%
13.5%
20.00%
12.1%
11.1%
10.00%
10.00%
2008
2009
2010
2008
2011
#10 DEBT FINANCING
LONG TERM DEBT
$80,000,000
CURRENT LIAB
TOTAL ASSETS
2009
2010
2011
Net Cash Conversion
$200,000
$60,000,000
$100,000
$197,124
$50,000,000
$0
$40,000,000
46
45
$20,000,000
($200,000)
$10,000,000
($300,000)
$0
($96,901)
41
($288,295)
($400,000)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
46
$27,883
($100,000)
$30,000,000
2007
2008
2009
2008
2009
COST of CAPITAL %
Net Trade Cycle Days
$300,000
$70,000,000
20%
22%
21%
2010
2011
#12 COST OF CAPITAL and EVA
#11 NET TRADE CYCLE
EQUITY
20%
0.00%
0.00%
($20,000,000)
19%
2010
2011
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
ROA %
EVA % SPREAD
25.00%
20.00%
10.00%
19%
17%
15.00%
14%
12%
13%
16%
12%
11%
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%
-10.00%
2008
2009
2010
2011
1
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
REAL REVENUE GROWTH
#1
Real revenue growth shows the actual real increase or decrease year by year in the additional sales volume of services or products.
Real revenue growth shows the annual growth in revenues adjusted for the effect of annual over-all increases or decreases in direct
revenue pricing and the changes in the costs of goods sold through using the gross profit mark-up index. So the company's
revenues change year by year due to changes in the volume of products or services, the changes in the pricing of products or
services, and the changes in the costs of goods sold.
SUSTAINABLE REVENUE GROWTH
#2
The annual change in retained earnings in relation to equity if you use debt financing or total assets (if no debt financing) tells one
how fast or slow the revenues can change in the following year. Have you ever heard the term growing broke? That term means
growing annual revenues so fast that they consume the resources of the balance sheet faster than they can be replenished. Where
do additional resources primarily come from – from retained earnings or the portion of annual net income you leave in or reinvest in
your business.
PRICING POLICY
#3
OPERATING EXPENSE CONTROL
#4
EBITDA to ACTUAL CASH FLOW
DEBT FREE CASH FLOW
#5
#6
EXCESS CASH
#7
RETURN on ASSETS (ROA)
#8
WORKING CAPITAL NEEDS
DEBT FINANCING
NET TRADE CYCLE
ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED (EVA)
We use the gross profit mark-up index to develop pricing policy. This index measures revenue divided by cost of goods sold,
resulting in an index. The annual change in this index plus or minus shows the increase or decrease in over-all pricing. Real
revenue growth as defined above is derived by subtracting the over-all pricing index from the nominal annual revenue change. For
many companies it would be impossible to add up a bunch of widgets, compare to the prior year, and know how much more volume
was produced. This can be daunting for even the well-organized firm. So this is how one can ferret out price increases or decreases
over-all year by year.
Operating expenses are expressed as a percentage of revenues. This percentage is typically compared to net income margin or net
income to revenues. Statistics are used to determine if the operating expenses are moving in or out of control and the magnitude of
any change. These statistics will tell one how sustainable operating expense improvements really are. Core operating expenses are
tracked in order to find different levels of economies of scale.
EBITDA means earnings before interest expense, taxes, annual depreciation expense and amortization. EBITDA is typically used by
banks to assess the ability of a firm to pay back debt financing. EBITDA ignores several issues critical to any business. It ignores
interest expenses, income taxes, annual changes in working capital, and annual capital expenditures to maintain the on-going viable
business operation. Without making working capital investments and capital expenditures, the business would begin to decline and
ultimately to fail. EBITDA is compared to annual cash flow before financing - IT SHOULD NOT BE USED for cash flow.
Cash flow before financing with after tax interest expense added back shows a company’s debt-free cash flow after tax. This is the
most meaningful cash flow for any business and should be followed consistently and frequently. This number is what is followed to
determine sustainable annual cash flow. This is the real driver of increasing business value without reservation. It is very difficult to
game this figure which is another valuable characteristic of this metric.
How a company manages its’ cash is a critical job that most companies do not really understand. Poor cash management can harm
the company’s performance in subtle but serious ways. It lowers the return on assets and it increases the cost of capital. Holding
excess cash dulls the company’s operating edge which increases overall risk and produces overly confident management. When
the cash balance exceeds the actual working capital cash balance need then that excess cash balance is unnecessary to the firm’s
financial operations. Increasing or decreasing excess cash balances is a leading indicator of future good or bad times for the
company.
Assets means the firm’s total assets. The return on assets is calculated as net income after tax plus after- tax interest expense
added back in as net income. The result is divided by total assets to arrive at the Return on Assets (ROA). ROA can then be
compared to other returns on investments with similar risk profiles. For instance, if your business is only returning 4% ROA
compared to say the yield on a junk municipal bond at 6%, one would conclude that the business is probably underperforming for
the risk taken to have all the assets tied up in an illiquid business operation.
#9
Working capital is the interaction of the current assets and current liabilities. Accounts receivable and inventory (if applicable) are
the main drivers of current assets and accounts payable and other payables are the main drivers of the current liabilities. The
current liabilities fund to some extent the current assets. Mismatching the working capital will cause consistent and costly problems
for the company. Knowing the potential need for capital in the working capital is an important metric for determining the future
financing of the business whether short, medium, or long term.
#10
The total debt or total liabilities will be different in each industry and with each business depending on the company's risk tolerance.
Long term debt financing should be used for long term asset financing and short term debt for working capital. Total annual interest
expense percentage to revenues should not exceed the net operating income margin as a percentage to revenues. This is what is
termed negative leverage. Negative leverage should be avoided at all costs. The use of debt financing is a critical component to
management of a company’s cost of capital and cash flow, and proper use of debt lowers the over-all cost of capital.
#11
The measurement of average days to annual revenues tied up in accounts receivable, inventory and accounts payable is used to
determine the net trade cycle or cash conversion cycle. It tells a company how fast cash goes through its sale or trade cycle before
coming back out as cash again. The shorter the days in the NTC or CCC the better in most cases. The days in accounts receivable
plus the days in inventory less the days in accounts payable will produce the NTC days. This is a critical metric in managing the
business operations.
#12
Economic value added is a long term goal that every firm should follow without exception. This calculation determines the actual
cost of your capital (COC) both debt and equity combined as compared to the return on assets or ROA. The ROA needs to exceed
the COC in order to add premium value to the business over and above the book net equity. When the ROA falls under COC the
firm is destroying capital employed in the business. This would be the same as selling your products or services below the cost to
produce them. You can only do that for so long before bad things begin to happen to the business.
2
Income Statement
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
2007
Gross Revenues
COGS
Gross Profit
Operating Expense (including items below)
Operating Expense (Less Items Below)
Officer Salary
Depreciation
Amortization
Total Expenses
Operating Income/Loss
Interest Income
Other Income
Total Other Income
Other Expense (-)
Interest Expense ( - )
Total Other Expense
Pre-Tax Income
Income Tax Expense
Net Income After Tax
Annual Tax Rate
Balance Sheet
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash
Short Term Investments
Accounts Receivable - Net
Inventories and WIP
WIP
Advances & Other Current Assets
Prepaid Expenses
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Plant and Equipment
Buildings & Leasehold Improvements
Land
Accumulated Depreciation
Net Plant Equipment
Other Intangible Assets
TOTAL ASSETS
LIABILITIES
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Other Payables
Unearned Income/Deposits
Line of Credit
Other Current Liabilities
Current Portion of Long Term Debt
Total Current Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Long Term Debt
Other Loans Payable
Other Loans Payable
Shareholder loans
Short/Current Long Term Debt
Net Long Term Liabilities
Total Liabilities
STOCKHOLDER EQUITY
Common Stock
Preferred Stock
Additional Paid In Capital
Dividends
Retained Earnings
Treasury Stock
Net Income
Other Stockholder Equity
Total Stockholder Equity
Total Liabilities & Stockholder Equity
2008
2009
2010
2011
16,594,000
5,681,000
21,796,000
7,122,000
23,651,000
7,320,000
29,321,000
9,021,000
37,862,000
11,337,000
10,913,000
14,674,000
16,331,000
20,300,000
26,525,000
5,829,000
10,232,000
8,019,000
9,605,000
15,460,000
5,021,000
9,020,000
6,779,000
8,538,000
14,064,000
0
0
0
0
0
808,000
0
1,212,000
0
1,240,000
0
1,067,000
0
1,396,000
0
5,829,000
10,232,000
8,019,000
9,605,000
15,460,000
5,084,000
4,442,000
8,312,000
10,695,000
11,065,000
559,000
32,000
390,000
1,022,000
230,000
0
579,000
0
812,000
507,000
591,000
1,412,000
1,319,000
230,000
579,000
0
(1,000)
0
0
(161,000)
0
(478,000)
0
0
(58,000)
(1,000)
0
(161,000)
(478,000)
(58,000)
5,674,000
1,470,000
5,854,000
1,627,000
8,381,000
1,861,000
10,796,000
2,291,000
12,326,000
2,589,000
4,204,000
4,227,000
6,520,000
8,505,000
9,737,000
26%
28%
22%
21%
21%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
14,219,000
15,846,000
24,485,000
34,975,000
0
0
0
0
44,626,000
0
2,308,000
2,642,000
3,178,000
4,252,000
5,427,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
762,000
0
1,690,000
0
1,504,000
0
2,335,000
0
2,705,000
0
17,289,000
20,178,000
29,167,000
41,562,000
52,758,000
5,520,000
7,576,000
8,130,000
11,771,000
14,400,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
(1,481,000)
0
(2,342,000)
0
(3,286,000)
0
(4,012,000)
0
(4,797,000)
4,039,000
5,234,000
4,844,000
7,759,000
9,603,000
4,008,000
6,356,000
6,486,000
8,530,000
10,213,000
25,336,000
31,768,000
40,497,000
57,851,000
72,574,000
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
282,000
178,000
216,000
483,000
588,000
1,754,000
2,124,000
2,531,000
9,513,000
8,325,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,465,000
0
1,218,000
2,036,000
2,302,000
2,747,000
13,461,000
10,131,000
610,000
1,227,000
1,746,000
1,614,000
5,516,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(3,465,000)
0
(1,218,000)
610,000
1,227,000
1,746,000
(1,851,000)
4,298,000
2,646,000
3,529,000
4,493,000
11,610,000
14,429,000
22,690,000
28,239,000
36,004,000
46,241,000
58,145,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,204,000
0
4,227,000
0
6,520,000
0
8,505,000
0
9,737,000
0
26,894,000
32,466,000
42,524,000
54,746,000
67,882,000
0
0
0
0
0
3
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
VERSION
#210
GOOGLE INC. (GOOG)
May 17, 2012
CONTINUE
Publicly Traded Company - Calendar Year End - Accrual Basis
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
WARNING
Financial data provided through GOOGLE INC. (GOOG). The financial statements are NOT audited or assured by BUSINESS FERRET LLC.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
INCOME STATEMENT
REVENUES
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
AVERAGE
(all numbers in ,000s)
Annualizing Factor
$16,594,000
0
0
0
0
$16,594,000
GROSS REVENUES:
Other Revenues
Other Revenues
Returns, Refunds, and Discounts
Write-downs
TOTAL NET REVENUES
Annual Percentage Increase or Decrease in Net Revenues
ANNUAL PRICING CHANGES
NET ANNUAL PRICE ADJUSTED REVENUE GROWTH
PRICE ELASTICITY (sensitivity to price changes)
$21,796,000
0
0
0
0
$21,796,000
31.35%
1.63%
29.71%
18.19
5,202,000
ANNUAL NET REVENUE CHANGE $
COSTS OF REVENUES (net of depreciation) same as COGS
Costs of Revenues Margin
Annual Percentage Increase or Decrease Costs of Revenues
$14,674,000
67.32%
34.46%
2.37%
$5,202,000
$3,761,000
72.30%
$16,331,000
69.05%
11.29%
2.56%
$1,855,000
$1,657,000
89.33%
$20,300,000
69.23%
24.30%
0.27%
$5,670,000
$3,969,000
70.00%
$26,525,000
70.06%
30.67%
1.19%
$8,541,000
$6,225,000
72.88%
4.97%
20.28%
0.77%
2.83%
+ or - $'s
ANNUAL GROSS PROFIT CHANGE + or - $'s
GROSS PROFIT $ CHANGE to REVENUE $ CHANGE in PERCENTAGE
INCREMENTAL GP % minus OVERALL ANNUAL GP %
198,000
9,021,000
30.77%
23.24%
1,701,000
$25,844,800
0
0
0
0
$25,844,800
11,337,000
29.94%
25.67%
STANDARD
DEVIATION
12
PROBABILITY
LINKAGE TO
REVENUES
8,112,951
0
0
0
0
8,112,951
22.90%
22.90%
EQUITY BASED
11
11.97%
31.39%
100.00%
31.39%
100.00%
8.50%
ASSET BASED
WEIGHTED AVERAGE REAL REVENUE GROWTH RATE
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE ELASTICITY
8,096,200
31.71%
19.26%
29.94%
31.33%
18.86%
2,164,647
26.74%
99.86%
$17,748,600
68.29%
25.18%
70.06%
68.67%
24.86%
5,952,374
33.54%
99.98%
#13 INCREMENTAL ANNUAL CHANGES
$9,000,000
REV CHG
GP CHG
GP %
71%
70%
$8,000,000
70.1%
$7,000,000
AVERAGE
2.92
100.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00%
AVERAGE SUSTAINABLE REVENUE GROWTH
1.12%
22.76%
54.54
GROWTH
RATE in
DOLLARS
2,316,000
REVENUE PRICING POLICY
GROSS PROFIT MARK-UP INDEX
PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE of INDEX (from One Year to the Next)
CUMULATIVE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCES
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE times ANNUAL REVENUES
CUMULATIVE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE times ANNUAL REVENUES
100.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00%
% of
AVERAGE
REVENUES
8,541,000
$10,913,000
65.76%
ANNUAL NET REVENUE CHANGE
7,320,000
30.95%
2.78%
5,670,000
$37,862,000
0
0
0
0
$37,862,000
29.13%
0.85%
28.28%
33.43
7,122,000
32.68%
25.37%
1,441,000
Gross Profit Margin
Annual Percentage Increase or Decrease in Gross Profit Dollars
Annual Percentage Increase or Decrease in Gross Profit Margin
1,855,000
$29,321,000
0
0
0
0
$29,321,000
23.97%
0.18%
23.79%
128.71
5,681,000
34.24%
ANNUAL COSTS OF REVENUE CHANGE $
GROSS PROFIT
$23,651,000
0
0
0
0
$23,651,000
8.51%
1.82%
6.69%
3.67
% of
CURRENT
REVENUES
DANGER
10
3.06
3.23
3.25
3.34
3.16
$5,000,000
4.77%
4.77%
$1,040,279
$1,040,279
5.58%
10.35%
$1,318,687
$2,447,501
0.60%
10.95%
$175,090
$3,209,346
2.75%
13.70%
$1,041,158
$5,185,364
3.42%
9.94%
$893,804
$4,000,000
69.0%
69.2%
69%
68%
68%
$3,000,000
67%
67.3%
$2,000,000
67%
$1,000,000
REVENUES REQUIRED to MAINTAIN GP$ w/ HIGHEST GP MARGIN
REVENUE DECLINE POSSIBLE still MAINTAINING GP DOLLARS
$15,577,305
($1,016,695)
$20,945,787
($850,213)
$23,311,002
($339,998)
$28,976,385
($344,615)
$37,862,000
$0
$25,334,496
($510,304)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
AVERAGE
OPERATING EXPENSES
(all numbers in ,000s)
CORE OPERATING EXPENSE (excluding deprec. & amort. exp.)
OTHER EXPENSES
DEPRECIATION EXPENSE (from COGS & operating exp.)
AMORTIZATION EXPENSE (from operating exp.)
TOTAL EXPENSES:
Total Expenses to Revenues
Annual Percentage Increase or Decrease in Operating Expense
Total Core Operating Expenses to Revenues
DIFFERENCE between GP & EXPENSE NET ANNUAL % CHANGE
ANNUAL CORE OPERATING EXPENSE CHANGE
+ or - $'s
$5,021,000
0
808,000
0
5,829,000
35.13%
30.26%
$9,020,000
0
1,212,000
0
10,232,000
46.94%
75.54%
41.38%
$6,779,000
0
1,240,000
0
8,019,000
33.91%
-21.63%
28.66%
$8,538,000
0
1,067,000
0
9,605,000
32.76%
19.78%
29.12%
$14,064,000
0
1,396,000
0
15,460,000
40.83%
60.96%
37.15%
-41.07%
32.92%
4.53%
-30.29%
3,999,000
(2,241,000)
1,759,000
5,526,000
$8,684,400
0
1,144,600
0
9,829,000
37.91%
33.66%
33.31%
66%
$0
66%
2008
% of
CURRENT
REVENUES
70%
69%
$6,000,000
% of
AVERAGE
REVENUES
2009
GROWTH
RATE in
DOLLARS
29.37%
2010
STANDARD
DEVIATION
3,395,777
2011
PROBABILITY
39.10%
LINKAGE TO
REVENUES
37.15%
0.00%
3.69%
33.60%
91.52%
4.43%
14.65%
221,454
19.35%
74.90%
40.83%
38.03%
27.62%
3,577,599
36.40%
91.50%
4
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
Financial data provided through GOOGLE INC. (GOOG). The financial statements are NOT audited or assured by BUSINESS FERRET LLC.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
NET OPERATING INCOME or (LOSSES)
(all numbers in ,000s)
NET OPERATING INCOME or (LOSS) or NOI
2007
2008
2009
ANNUAL NOI CHANGE in $'s
$4,442,000
20.38%
-12.63%
($642,000)
NOI CHANGE to REVENUE CHANGE in PERCENTAGE
-12.34%
Net Operating Income to Revenues
Annual Percentage Increase or Decrease in NOI
OTHER INCOME
INTEREST INCOME
GAIN on SALE of ASSETS
OTHER
OTHER
TOTAL OTHER INCOME
OTHER EXPENSE
INTEREST EXPENSE
ANNUAL INTEREST RATE ON ALL INTEREST BEARING DEBT
LOSS on SALE of ASSETS
OTHER
OTHER
TOTAL OTHER EXPENSE
pre-tax net income to revenues
PRE-TAX INCOME
LESS INCOME TAXES or REFUNDS
NET INCOME AFTER TAX
PLUS DEPRECIATION AND AMORTIZATION
GROSS AFTER TAX CASH FLOW
GROSS AFTER TAX CASH FLOW MARGIN
EBIT $
EBIT MARGIN
EBITDA $
EBITDA MARGIN
CASH FLOW BEFORE FINANCING - DEBT FREE
CASH FLOW BEFORE FINANCING MARGIN
ADJ. CASH FLOW BEFORE FINANCING - DEBT FREE
ADJ. CASH FLOW BEFORE FINANCING MARGIN
ACTUAL CASH FLOW BEFORE FINANCING
ADJ. CASH FLOW BEFORE FINANCING MARGIN
$5,084,000
30.64%
559,000
0
32,000
0
591,000
(1,000)
0.16%
0
0
0
(1,000)
2010
$8,312,000
35.14%
87.12%
$3,870,000
208.63%
390,000
0
1,022,000
0
1,412,000
0.00%
42.03%
230,000
0
0
0
230,000
0
0
(161,000)
0
(161,000)
35.44%
$11,065,000
29.22%
3.46%
$370,000
$7,919,600
30.37%
26.66%
% of
CURRENT
REVENUES
% of
AVERAGE
REVENUES
29.22%
30.64%
RESTORING AVG. NOI %
GROWTH
RATE in
DOLLARS
21.46%
4.85%
10
11
12
STANDARD
DEVIATION
PROBABILITY
LINKAGE TO
REVENUES
3,077,527
38.86%
REVs. to RESTORE $ MARGIN
87.01%
($10,762,868)
4.33%
579,000
0
0
0
579,000
0
0.00%
0
0
0
0
2011
$10,695,000
36.48%
28.67%
$2,383,000
AVERAGE
0
0.00%
0
(478,000)
0
(478,000)
36.82%
812,000
0
507,000
0
1,319,000
(58,000)
1.35%
0
0
0
(58,000)
32.56%
514,000
0
312,200
0
826,200
(11,800)
0.30%
0
(127,800)
0
(139,600)
33.17%
GP CHG
$7,000,000
#14 INCREMENTAL ANNUAL CHANGES
OPER EXP CHG
NOI CHG
NOI MARGIN
40.00%
$6,000,000
35.00%
$5,000,000
30.00%
$4,000,000
$3,000,000
25.00%
$2,000,000
20.00%
$1,000,000
15.00%
$0
10.00%
($1,000,000)
5.00%
($2,000,000)
34.19%
26.86%
$5,674,000
1,470,000
4,204,000
808,000
5,012,000
30.20%
$5,854,000
1,627,000
4,227,000
1,212,000
5,439,000
24.95%
$8,381,000
1,861,000
6,520,000
1,240,000
7,760,000
32.81%
$10,796,000
2,291,000
8,505,000
1,067,000
9,572,000
32.65%
$12,326,000
2,589,000
9,737,000
1,396,000
11,133,000
29.40%
$8,606,200
1,967,600
6,638,600
1,144,600
7,783,200
30.00%
32.56%
6.84%
25.72%
2008
33.30%
5,084,000
30.64%
5,892,000
4,442,000
20.38%
5,654,000
8,312,000
35.14%
9,552,000
10,695,000
36.48%
11,762,000
11,065,000
29.22%
12,461,000
7,919,600
30.37%
9,064,200
35.51%
25.94%
(312,000)
-1.43%
2,036,000
9.34%
(312,000)
-1.43%
40.39%
6,875,000
29.07%
7,005,000
29.62%
6,875,000
29.07%
40.11%
8,890,000
30.32%
10,934,000
37.29%
8,890,000
30.32%
32.91%
3,619,700
9.56%
5,302,700
14.01%
3,582,000
9.46%
34.97%
4,768,175
16.88%
6,319,425
22.56%
4,758,750
16.85%
($3,000,000)
0.00%
7.61%
25.69%
-1.22%
2009
21.40%
15.20%
23.36%
2010
2,951,917
465,216
2,492,022
2011
34.30%
23.64%
37.54%
95.07%
98.08%
94.31%
29.40%
30.12%
22.08%
2,626,610
33.75%
95.79%
29.22%
30.64%
21.46%
3,077,527
38.86%
87.01%
32.91%
35.07%
20.59%
3,191,655
35.21%
89.10%
9.56%
18.45%
4,023,072
84.37%
18.91%
14.01%
24.45%
3,703,412
58.60%
24.52%
9.46%
18.41%
4,026,702
84.62%
18.47%
5
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
Financial data provided through GOOGLE INC. (GOOG). The financial statements are NOT audited or assured by BUSINESS FERRET LLC.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
93
94
BALANCE SHEET
ASSETS
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
(all numbers in ,000s)
% of
2007
2007
after-tax net income to revenues
CURRENT ASSETS
Cash Balance Excess or (Shortfall)
CASH
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE (net of Bad Debt Allowance)
INVENTORIES plus WORK in PROCESS
ADVANCES & OTHER CURRENT ASSETS
PREPAID EXPENSES
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE to REVENUES %
INVENTORY to REVENUES %
OTHER CURRENT ASSETS to REVENUES %
PREPAID EXPENSES to REVENUES %
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS to REVENUES %
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS
25.33%
2008
2008
19.39%
2009
2009
27.57%
2010
2010
29.01%
2011
2011
25.72%
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
% of
%CURRENT
of CURRENT %AVERAGE
of AVERAGE
TOTAL
ASSETS TOTAL
ASSETS
REVENUES
REVENUES
GROWTH
GROWTH
RATE
RATE in
in
DOLLARS
DOLLARS
10
11
12
STANDARD
STANDARD
DEVIATION
DEVIATION
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY
LINKAGE TO
LINKAGE TO
REVENUES
REVENUES
25.40%
15,417,000
14,219,000
2,308,000
0
762,000
0
13.91%
0.00%
4.59%
0.00%
18.50%
$17,289,000
18,106,000
15,846,000
2,642,000
0
1,690,000
0
12.12%
0.00%
7.75%
0.00%
19.88%
$20,178,000
28,713,000
24,485,000
3,178,000
0
1,504,000
0
13.44%
0.00%
6.36%
0.00%
19.80%
$29,167,000
46,933,000
34,975,000
4,252,000
0
2,335,000
0
14.50%
0.00%
7.96%
0.00%
22.47%
$41,562,000
55,260,000
44,626,000
5,427,000
0
2,705,000
0
14.33%
0.00%
7.14%
0.00%
21.48%
$52,758,000
32,885,800
26,830,200
3,561,400
0
2,058,500
0
13.66%
0.00%
6.76%
0.00%
20.42%
$32,190,800
76.14%
61.49%
7.48%
0.00%
3.73%
0.00%
72.11%
58.83%
7.81%
33.10%
23.83%
17,599,307
12,925,007
1,276,783
53.52%
48.17%
35.85%
96.00%
97.38%
98.90%
4.51%
37.26%
755,382
36.70%
95.59%
72.70%
70.59%
32.17%
14,885,761
46.24%
97.89%
0
0
5,520,000
0
0
(1,481,000)
0
$4,039,000
0
0
7,576,000
0
0
(2,342,000)
0
0
8,130,000
0
0
(3,286,000)
0
0
11,771,000
0
0
(4,012,000)
0
0
14,400,000
0
0
(4,797,000)
0
0
9,479,400
0
0
(3,183,600)
0.00%
0.00%
19.84%
20.79%
27.09%
3,556,135
37.51%
99.12%
-6.61%
-6.98%
1,314,052
-41.28%
-96.62%
$5,234,000
$4,844,000
$7,759,000
$9,603,000
$6,295,800
13.23%
13.81%
24.17%
2,313,375
36.74%
97.49%
4,008,000
0
4,008,000
6,356,000
0
6,356,000
6,486,000
0
6,486,000
8,530,000
0
8,530,000
10,213,000
0
10,213,000
7,118,600
0
7,118,600
14.07%
0.00%
14.07%
15.61%
26.34%
2,357,166
33.11%
98.50%
15.61%
26.34%
2,357,166
33.11%
98.50%
$25,336,000
$31,768,000
$40,497,000
$57,851,000
$72,574,000
$45,605,200
100.00%
100.00%
30.10%
19,401,534
42.54%
98.69%
$14,219,000
$15,846,000
$24,485,000
$34,975,000
$44,626,000
FIXED ASSETS
LAND
BUILDINGS/LEASE IMPROVEMENTS
PLANT& EQUIPMENT
OFFICE EQUIPMENT
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
(LESS: ACCUMULATED DEPRECIATION EXPENSE)
TOTAL NET FIXED ASSETS
OTHER ASSETS
GOODWILL
OTHER INTANGIBLE ASSETS
TOTAL OTHER ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
CASH ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
$26,830,200
6
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
Financial data provided through GOOGLE INC. (GOOG). The financial statements are NOT audited or assured by BUSINESS FERRET LLC.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
LIABILITIES:
CURRENT LIABILITIES
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE
OTHER PAYABLES
UNEARNED INCOME
LINE OF CREDIT or Credit Cards
CURRENT PORTION OF LONG TERM DEBT & LEASES
LINE of CREDIT LIMIT based on 75% AR and 40% INVENTORY
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES:
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE PLUS OTHER PAYABLES to REVENUES %
UNEARNED INCOME to REVENUES %
LOC BALANCE USED to REVENUES %
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES to REVENUES %
WORKING CAPTIAL FUNDING SHORTFALL or EXCESS to REVENUES%
LONG TERM LIABILITIES
LONG TERM DEBT
OTHER LOANS PAYABLE
CAPITAL LEASE
SHAREHOLDERS' LOANS
ACCRUED FEDERAL INCOME TAXES
LESS CURRENT PORTION OF LONG TERM DEBT
TOTAL LONG TERM DEBT
TOTAL LIABILITIES:
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
$282,000
1,754,000
0
0
0
$1,731,000
$2,036,000
12.27%
0.00%
0.00%
12.27%
-6.23%
$178,000
2,124,000
0
0
0
$1,981,500
$2,302,000
10.56%
0.00%
0.00%
10.56%
-9.31%
$216,000
2,531,000
0
0
0
$2,383,500
$2,747,000
11.61%
0.00%
0.00%
11.61%
-8.18%
$610,000
0
0
0
0
0
$1,227,000
0
0
0
0
0
$1,746,000
0
0
0
0
0
2011
2011
$483,000
9,513,000
0
0
3,465,000
$3,189,000
$13,461,000
34.09%
0.00%
0.00%
34.09%
11.63%
$1,614,000
0
0
0
0
(3,465,000)
AVERAGE
$588,000
8,325,000
0
0
1,218,000
$4,070,250
$10,131,000
23.54%
0.00%
0.00%
23.54%
2.06%
$349,400
4,849,400
0
0
936,600
$2,671,050
$6,135,400
18.42%
0.00%
0.00%
18.42%
-2.01%
$5,516,000
0
0
0
0
(1,218,000)
$2,142,600
0
0
0
0
(936,600)
10
% of
CURRENT
REVENUES
0.81%
11.47%
0.00%
0.00%
1.68%
% of
AVERAGE
REVENUES
0.77%
10.63%
GROWTH
RATE in
DOLLARS
20.17%
47.60%
STANDARD
DEVIATION
177,831
3,748,775
13.96%
13.45%
49.35%
5,305,905
58.74%
-2.75%
7.60%
57.13%
-1.70%
11
12
LINKAGE TO
REVENUES
50.90%
85.63%
77.30%
84.45%
PROBABILITY
86.48%
54.50%
98.90%
78.03%
WORKING CAPITAL GAP with CASH BALANCE
WORKING CAPITAL GAP without CASH BALANCE
4.70%
73.41%
1,936,732
90.39%
91.42%
$610,000
$1,227,000
$1,746,000
($1,851,000)
$4,298,000
$1,206,000
5.92%
2.64%
62.92%
2,210,937
183.33%
42.89%
$2,646,000
$3,529,000
$4,493,000
$11,610,000
$14,429,000
$7,341,400
19.88%
16.10%
52.81%
5,318,590
72.45%
95.67%
$22,690,000
0
(2,734,000)
4,204,000
(1,470,000)
0
0
0
0
$22,690,000
$28,239,000
(2,600,000)
0
4,227,000
(1,627,000)
0
0
2,600,000
0
$28,239,000
$36,004,000
(7,259,000)
2,600,000
6,520,000
(1,861,000)
0
0
7,259,000
0
$36,004,000
$46,241,000
(13,473,000)
7,259,000
8,505,000
(2,291,000)
0
0
13,473,000
0
$46,241,000
$58,145,000
(20,621,000)
13,473,000
9,737,000
(2,589,000)
0
0
20,621,000
0
$58,145,000
$38,263,800
(8,790,600)
4,119,600
6,638,600
(1,967,600)
0
0
8,790,600
0
$38,263,800
18.56%
13.42%
9.03%
14.56%
23.36%
6,395,194
2,492,022
155.24%
37.54%
99.61%
94.31%
STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
COMMON STOCK - CUMULATIVE
OTHER PAID-IN CAPITAL or DISTRIBUTIONS -Cumulative
RETAINED EARNINGS-BEGINNING
NET INCOME
Tax Paid
Dividend Distributions
Other Distributions
RETAINED EARNINGS-ENDING
LESS TREASURY STOCK
EQUITY
Annual Equity to Total Assets
Annual Equity Percentage Changes
89.6%
88.9%
24.46%
88.9%
27.50%
79.9%
28.43%
80.1%
25.74%
Share Price
Check
19.28%
83.90%
100.00%
100.00%
26.52%
8,364,018
95.15%
98.81%
14,204,263
37.12%
98.98%
19,401,534
42.54%
98.69%
85.5%
26.53%
$625.00
Shares Outstanding
Market Capitalization of Equity
MV Equity to Book Equity
After-Tax Current Yield on MV Equity (plus dividends)
After-Tax Dividend Yield Based on MV Equity
TOTAL LIABILITIES & NET WORTH
28.41%
80.12%
326,030,000
$203,768,750
Book Equity Pricing
350.45%
$25,336,000
$31,768,000
$40,497,000
$57,851,000
4.78%
0.00%
$72,574,000
0
0
0
0
0
$45,605,200
30.10%
7
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
Financial data provided through GOOGLE INC. (GOOG). The financial statements are NOT audited or assured by BUSINESS FERRET LLC.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
SUSTAINABLE REVENUE GROWTH:
PROFIT MARGIN TO REVENUES
TOTAL ASSETS TO REVENUES
RETENTION RATIO - CURRENT RETAINED to NET INC.
RETENTION RATIO - CURRENT RETAINED to NET INC. - ADJ.
RETURN ON EQUITY (ROE)
RETURN ON ASSETS (ROA)
DEBT RATIO
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
25.33%
152.68%
65.03%
65.03%
19.39%
145.75%
61.51%
0.00%
14.97%
11.98%
4.35%
27.57%
171.23%
71.46%
-39.88%
18.11%
13.45%
4.85%
29.01%
197.30%
73.06%
-85.35%
18.39%
12.13%
-4.00%
25.72%
191.68%
73.41%
-138.37%
16.75%
11.09%
7.39%
2.69%
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
25.40%
171.73%
68.89%
-39.71%
17.05%
12.16%
3.05%
% of
AVERAGE
REVENUES
GROWTH
RATE in
DOLLARS
10
11
12
STANDARD
DEVIATION
PROBABILITY
LINKAGE TO
REVENUES
#15 REVENUE SUSTAINABILITY
PRICE ADJ REV GROWTH
DEBT FINANCED GROWTH
NO DEBT GROWTH
35.00%
30.00%
Green = continue Amber = warning Red = danger
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
% of
CURRENT
REVENUES
25.00%
CURRENT YEAR REVENUE GROWTH RATE - NOMINAL
31.35%
8.51%
23.97%
29.13%
23.24%
PRICE ADJUSTED ANNUAL REVENUE GROWTH RATE
29.71%
6.69%
23.79%
28.28%
22.12%
20.00%
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH (Equity Based)
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH (Equity Based) - adjusted
CURRENT YEAR REVENUE GROWTH RATE - NOMINAL
9.21%
0.00%
31.35%
12.94%
-7.22%
8.51%
13.44%
-15.70%
23.97%
12.29%
-23.17%
29.13%
11.97%
-11.52%
23.24%
15.00%
PRICE ADJUSTED ANNUAL REVENUE GROWTH RATE
29.71%
6.69%
23.79%
28.28%
22.12%
7.37%
0.00%
9.61%
-5.36%
8.86%
-10.35%
8.14%
-15.35%
8.50%
-7.77%
INTERNAL GROWTH (Asset Based)
INTERNAL GROWTH (Asset Based) - adjusted
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Green = continue Amber = warning Red = danger
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
RATIO ANALYSIS:
2008
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
>Yrly Dep Exp
$17,289,000
14,219,000
3,070,000
2,036,000
1.51
$20,178,000
15,846,000
4,332,000
2,302,000
1.88
12.50%
0.00
69.73%
0.82%
34.77%
3.86%
11.11%
$0.17
$29,167,000
24,485,000
4,682,000
2,747,000
1.70
12.48%
0.00
49.10%
0.91%
38.86%
4.31%
11.09%
$0.52
$41,562,000
34,975,000
6,587,000
13,461,000
0.49
25.11%
0.00
47.32%
1.65%
-15.94%
-3.20%
20.07%
$1.26
$52,758,000
44,626,000
8,132,000
10,131,000
0.80
24.82%
213.52
58.28%
1.55%
29.79%
5.92%
19.88%
$0.33
$32,190,800
26,830,200
5,360,600
6,135,400
1.28
18.72%
0.00
56.11%
1.23%
21.87%
2.72%
15.54%
$0.57
8.77
8.77
78.53%
688.36%
$17,876,000
$2,464,000
$17,876,000
$16,649,000
56.27%
10.62
10.62
83.95%
891.34%
$26,420,000
$2,962,000
$8,544,000
$24,674,000
65.24%
3.09
3.09
84.15%
259.82%
$28,101,000
$3,769,000
$1,681,000
$29,952,000
48.57%
5.21
5.21
84.59%
440.49%
$42,627,000
$4,839,000
$14,526,000
$38,329,000
58.74%
6.92
6.92
82.80%
570.00%
$28,756,000
$3,508,500
$10,656,750
$27,401,000
57.21%
0.69
82.02%
11.30%
24.01%
12.12%
0.58
111.71%
12.52%
20.48%
13.44%
0.51
95.84%
12.85%
26.46%
14.50%
0.52
112.59%
12.78%
25.36%
14.33%
$0.00
67.32%
19.39%
$1.24
69.05%
27.57%
$0.35
69.23%
29.01%
$0.14
70.06%
25.72%
>Gross Fixed
REVENUES TO TOTAL ASSETS
WORKING CAPITAL TO REVENUES
ADJUSTED WORKING CAPITAL TO REVENUES
FIXED ASSETS TO REVENUES
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE TO REVENUES
REVENUES TO INVENTORY
NET INCOME +/-$ TO REVENUES +/-$
GROSS PROFIT MARGIN
NET PROFIT MARGIN
2011
-808,000.00
2008
-1,212,000.00
2009
2010
2011
-1,240,000.00
-1,067,000.00
-1,396,000.00
5,520,000.00
7,576,000.00
8,130,000.00
11,771,000.00
14,400,000.00
-1,481,000.00
-2,342,000.00
-3,286,000.00
-4,012,000.00
-4,797,000.00
Assets (GFA)
>Accumulated
Depreciation
-2,342,000.00
-3,286,000.00
-4,012,000.00
-4,797,000.00
-1,212,000.00
-1,240,000.00
-1,067,000.00
-1,396,000.00
>Beg Acct Deprc
-1,130,000.00
-2,046,000.00
-2,945,000.00
-3,401,000.00
>Prior Actual
-1,481,000.00
-2,342,000.00
-3,286,000.00
-4,012,000.00
351,000.00
296,000.00
341,000.00
611,000.00
Accum Deprc
>Difference
>Prior Yr GFA
CURRENT RATIO
QUICK RATIO
CASH RATIO
CASH TO CURRENT LIAB.
WORKING CAPITAL
ADJUSTED WORKING CAPITAL (AWC)
CHANGE IN WORKING CAPITAL
NET WORKING CAPITAL
WORKING CAPITAL TO TOTAL ASSETS
2010
AVERAGE
2007
FLOW RATIO
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS
Less CASH & CASH EQUIVALENTS
ADJUSTED CURRENT ASSETS (Total less cash & equiv)
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES
FLOW RATIO (Less than 1 desirable)
DEBT RATIO
TIMES INTEREST EARNED
OPERATING LEVERAGE
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE TO REVENUES
LONG TERM DEBT TO TOTAL LIABILITIES
LONG TERM DEBT TO TOTAL ASSETS
TOTAL LIABILITIES TO TOTAL ASSETS
TOTAL DEBT +/-$ TO REVENUES +/- $
2009
Minus Difference
5,520,000.00
7,576,000.00
8,130,000.00
11,771,000.00
351,000.00
296,000.00
341,000.00
611,000.00
5,169,000.00
7,280,000.00
7,789,000.00
11,160,000.00
>Current GFA
7,576,000.00
8,130,000.00
11,771,000.00
14,400,000.00
>Adj Prior GFA
5,169,000.00
7,280,000.00
7,789,000.00
11,160,000.00
3,982,000
3,240,000
CAPEX
2,407,000
850,000
0.57
100.54%
12.37%
24.08%
13.60%
#DIV/0!
$0.43
68.92%
25.42%
8
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
Financial data provided through GOOGLE INC. (GOOG). The financial statements are NOT audited or assured by BUSINESS FERRET LLC.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
233
234
235
236
237
RETURN ON ASSETS (ROA)
ROA excluding other assets
ROA excluding other assets & excess cash or add deficit
RETURN ON ASSETS (ROA) with EFFICIENT FINANCING ONLY
RETURN ON ASSETS (ROA) with EFFICIENT FINANCING & FULLY ADJ.
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
DEBT LOAN CONSTANT
DEBT LOAN CONSTANT asset weighted
DEBT LOAN CONSTANT asset weighted & tax adjusted
RETURN ON GROSS FIXED ASSETS
RETURN ON EQUITY (ROE)
GROSS AFTER TAX CASH FLOW
GROSS AFTER TAX CASH FLOW TO SALES
EMPLOYEES (FTEs) INCLUDING ANY OWNER OPERATORS
REVENUES PER FULL TIME EMPLOYEE
DUAL CASH FLOW ANALYSIS:
NET INCOME
PLUS: DEPRECIATION
PLUS OTHER
MINUS: INCOME TAX ACTUAL or @ 35% APPLIED
GROSS CASH FLOW (GCF)
Percentage to Revenues
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE - DECR/(INCR)
INVENTORY - DECR/(INCR)
OTHER CURRENT ASSETS - DECR/(INCR)
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE - INCR/(DECR)
OTHER CURRENT LIABILITIES - INCR/(DECR)
OPERATING CASH FLOW (OCF)
Percentage to Revenues
FIXED ASSETS - DECR/(INCR)
OTHER INVESTMENTS - DECR/(INCR)
INVESTING CASH FLOW (ICF)
Percentage to Revenues
CASH FLOW BEFORE FINANCING (CFBF)
Percentage to Revenues
CASH FLOW BEFORE FINANCING - adjusted
Conversion Ratio of Gross Cash Flow to CFBF adj
Percentage to Revenues
SHORT TERM DEBT - INCR/(DECR)
LONG TERM DEBT - INCR/(DECR)
DEBT FINANCING CASH FLOW (DFCF)
Percentage to Revenues
CAPITAL STOCK - INCR/(DECR)
PAID-IN or DISTRIBUTION ADJMT. - INCR/(DECR)
DISTRIBUTIONS - DIVIDENDS, TAX, & OTHER
TREASURY STOCK - INCR/(DECR)
EQUITY FINANCING CASH FLOW (EFCF)
Percentage to Revenues
FINANCING CASH FLOW (FCF)
2007
11.98%
13.45%
12.13%
11.09%
2008
14.97%
2009
16.02%
2010
14.23%
2011
12.91%
12.16%
AVERAGE
14.53%
47.82%
39.78%
57.19%
48.92%
45.39%
22.95%
58.19%
34.29%
87.59%
31.41%
75.01%
28.64%
67.98%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
55.79%
14.97%
$5,439,000
24.95%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
80.20%
18.11%
$7,760,000
32.81%
-187.20%
5850.61%
7898.33%
72.25%
18.39%
$9,572,000
32.65%
29.69%
501.30%
660.81%
67.62%
16.75%
$11,133,000
29.40%
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
-39.38%
1587.98%
2139.78%
68.97%
17.05%
$8,476,000
29.95%
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
AVERAGE
$5,854,000
1,212,000
0
1,627,000
$5,439,000
24.95%
(334,000)
0
(928,000)
(104,000)
370,000
($996,000)
-4.57%
($2,407,000)
(2,348,000)
($4,755,000)
-21.82%
($312,000)
-1.43%
2,036,000
37.43%
-1.43%
0
617,000
$617,000
2.83%
5,549,000
(2,600,000)
(1,627,000)
0
$1,322,000
6.07%
$1,939,000
$8,381,000
1,240,000
0
1,861,000
$7,760,000
32.81%
(536,000)
0
186,000
38,000
407,000
$95,000
0.40%
($850,000)
(130,000)
($980,000)
-4.14%
$6,875,000
29.07%
7,005,000
90.27%
29.07%
0
519,000
$519,000
2.19%
7,765,000
(4,659,000)
(1,861,000)
0
$1,245,000
5.26%
$1,764,000
$10,796,000
1,067,000
0
2,291,000
$9,572,000
32.65%
(1,074,000)
0
(831,000)
267,000
6,982,000
$5,344,000
18.23%
($3,982,000)
(2,044,000)
($6,026,000)
-20.55%
$8,890,000
30.32%
10,934,000
114.23%
30.32%
3,465,000
(3,597,000)
($132,000)
-0.45%
10,237,000
(6,214,000)
(2,291,000)
0
$1,732,000
5.91%
$1,600,000
$12,326,000
1,396,000
0
2,589,000
$11,133,000
29.40%
(1,175,000)
0
(370,000)
105,000
(1,188,000)
($2,628,000)
-6.94%
($3,240,000)
(1,683,000)
($4,923,000)
-13.00%
$3,582,000
9.46%
5,265,000
47.29%
9.46%
(2,247,000)
6,149,000
$3,902,000
10.31%
11,904,000
(7,148,000)
(2,589,000)
0
$2,167,000
5.72%
$6,069,000
5,439,000
(996,000)
(4,755,000)
1,939,000
$1,627,000
29.91%
$1,627,000
0
7,760,000
95,000
(980,000)
1,764,000
$8,639,000
111.33%
$8,639,000
0
9,572,000
5,344,000
(6,026,000)
1,600,000
$10,490,000
109.59%
$10,490,000
0
11,133,000
(2,628,000)
(4,923,000)
6,069,000
$9,651,000
86.69%
$9,651,000
0
29.32%
72.19%
% of
CURRENT
REVENUES
10
11
% of
GROWTH
STANDARD
AVERAGE
RATE in
PROBABILITY
DEVIATION
REVENUES #16
DOLLARS
RETURNS on ASSETS
ROA
12
LINKAGE TO
REVENUES
ROA FINANCIAL EFFICIENT
150.00%
100.00%
50.00%
0.00%
TOTAL LOAN CONSTANT
-50.00%
-100.00%
-150.00%
-200.00%
-250.00%
$9,339,250
2008
2009
2010
2011
1,228,750
0
2,092,000
$8,476,000
32.80%
#17 CASH FLOWS
(779,750)
WORKING CAPITAL CF
INVESTING CF
GROSS CF
0
$12,000,000
(485,750)
$10,000,000
76,500
1,642,750
$8,000,000
$453,750
$6,000,000
1.76%
$4,000,000
($2,619,750)
(1,551,250)
$2,000,000
($4,171,000)
$0
-16.14%
($2,000,000)
$4,758,750
18.41%
($4,000,000)
6,310,000
($6,000,000)
74.45%
2008
2009
2010
2011
18.41%
304,500
922,000
$1,226,500
4.75%
#18 CASH FLOW and FINANCING
8,863,750
ST & LT DEBT FINANCING
CFBF
(5,155,250) $10,000,000
(2,092,000)
0
$8,000,000
$1,616,500
6.25%
$6,000,000
$2,843,000
$4,000,000
GROSS CASH FLOW (GCF)
OPERATING CASH FLOW (OCF)
INVESTING CASH FLOW (ICF)
FINANCING CASH FLOW
COMPREHENSIVE CASH FLOW (CCF)
Conversion Ratio of Gross Cash Flow to CCF
CASH BALANCE CHANGE
Difference
8,476,000
453,750
(4,171,000)
2,843,000
$7,601,750
29.41%
$7,601,750
$2,000,000
$0
($2,000,000)
2008
2009
2010
2011
9
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
Financial data provided through GOOGLE INC. (GOOG). The financial statements are NOT audited or assured by BUSINESS FERRET LLC.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
HISTORICAL CAPITALIZED CASH FLOW VALUE:
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
WEIGHTED
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
VALUE
GROSS CASH FLOW
OPERATING CASH FLOW
ADD BACK AFTER TAX INTEREST EXPENSE
INVESTING CASH FLOW (less investment changes)
ADJUSTMENTS TO CASH FLOW (after tax)
DEBT FREE CASH FLOW BEFORE FINANCING
$5,439,000
(996,000)
0
(2,407,000)
$0
$2,036,000
$7,760,000
95,000
0
(850,000)
$0
$7,005,000
$9,572,000
5,344,000
0
(3,982,000)
$0
$10,934,000
$11,133,000
(2,628,000)
37,700
(3,240,000)
$0
$5,302,700
% of
CURRENT
REVENUES
$9,420,700
471,400
15,080
(2,901,300)
$0
$7,005,880
TOTAL ASSETS to NET INCOME (after tax) - CURRENT YEAR
7.52
6.21
6.80
7.42
6.86
302
TOTAL ASSETS to EBITDA - CURRENT YEAR
5.62
4.24
4.92
5.82
5.03
120.00
5.78
5.29
13.69
14.49%
2.40%
6.51
23.36%
2.40%
100.00
41.80
80.00
15.60
TOTAL ASSETS to DEBT FREE CASH FLOW - CURRENT YEAR
EFFECTIVE TAX RATE
DISCOUNT RATE or WEIGHTED COST of CAPITAL
GROWTH RATE LONG TERM - NOMINAL GDP RATE
24.00%
8.40%
6.00%
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
CAPITALIZATION RATE (CAP RATE) - inverse equals price multiple
2.40%
REMARKS:
EARNINGS GROWTH RATE
CAP RATE
P/E RATIO
MARKET VALUE NET WORTH
MARKET VALUE TO BOOK NET WORTH
PLUS or MINUS WORKING CAPITAL CASH
TOTAL GROSS MARKET VALUE (GMV) to NET INCOME (after tax) - CURRENT YEAR
TOTAL GROSS MARKET VALUE (GMV) to EBITDA - CURRENT YEAR
TOTAL GROSS MARKET VALUE (GMV) to DEBT FREE CASH FLOW - CURRENT YEAR
GROSS EXTERNAL FINANCING NEED (EFN):
(using current assets and current liabilities)
REVENUES
CURRENT ASSETS TO REVENUES
CURRENT LIABILITIES TO REVENUES
CHANGE IN REVENUES
PROFIT MARGIN
RETAINED EARNINGS/NET INCOME
EFN $ AMOUNT: (EXCESS)
21.21
CAPITALIZED GROSS VALUE $220,945,833
MINUS TOTAL LIABILITIES $14,429,000
52.27
33.89
25.98
$14,429,000
$277,482,667
355.18%
725.18%
$251,142,833
$304,312,867
33.24
24.38
31.54
39.08
23.13
18.78
108.52
31.54
20.21
22.60
17.73
41.67
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
AVERAGE
$16,594,000
104.19%
12.27%
$21,796,000
92.58%
10.56%
$5,202,000
19.39%
61.51%
$3,645,887
$23,651,000
123.32%
11.61%
$1,855,000
27.57%
71.46%
$1,706,763
$29,321,000
141.75%
45.91%
$5,670,000
29.01%
73.06%
$4,232,437
$37,862,000
$25,844,800
120.24%
21.42%
$5,317,000
25.40%
69.86%
$4,397,131
25.33%
12
LINKAGE TO
REVENUES
GMV to EBITDA
GMV to DEBT FREE CASH FLOW
40.00
20.00
0.00
2008
2009
2010
2011
($539,389)
($331,611)
($2,312,399)
($2,398,843)
$539,389
$331,611
$2,312,399
$2,398,843
#20 WORKING CAPITAL NEED
WORKING CAPITAL NEED
ANNUAL NET REVENUE CHANGE
9,000,000
ADJ. WORKING CAP EXTERNAL FINANCING NEED (EFN):
(using ARs plus inventory & APs & other payables)
REVENUES
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE PLUS INVENTORY to REVENUES
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE to REVENUES
OTHER PAYABLES (in Current Liabilities) to REVENUES
CHANGE in REVENUES
PROFIT MARGIN to REVENUES
RETAINED EARNINGS/NET INCOME
EFN $ AMOUNT: (EXCESS)
Green = continue Amber = warning Red = danger
338
11
PROBABILITY
60.00
Green = continue Amber = warning Red = danger
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
10
STANDARD
DEVIATION
$291,911,667
$206,516,833
139.34%
26.76%
$8,541,000
25.72%
73.41%
$8,003,437
GROWTH
RATE in
DOLLARS
#19 MARKET VALUATION MULTIPLES
GMV P/E
301
303
304
305
306
% of
AVERAGE
REVENUES
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
AVERAGE
$37,862,000
$25,844,800
13.66%
1.33%
17.09%
$5,317,000
25.40%
69.86%
($1,395,561)
8,000,000
7,000,000
$16,594,000
13.91%
1.70%
10.57%
25.33%
$21,796,000
12.12%
0.82%
9.74%
$5,202,000
19.39%
61.51%
($539,389)
$23,651,000
13.44%
0.91%
10.70%
$1,855,000
27.57%
71.46%
($331,611)
$29,321,000
14.50%
1.65%
32.44%
$5,670,000
29.01%
73.06%
($2,312,399)
14.33%
1.55%
21.99%
$8,541,000
25.72%
73.41%
($2,398,843)
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
10
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
Financial data provided through GOOGLE INC. (GOOG). The financial statements are NOT audited or assured by BUSINESS FERRET LLC.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
CURRENT LINE OF CREDIT NEED:
CASH BALANCE
CASH BURN RATE
NEEDED LINE of CREDIT (LOC) (assuming no cash)
NEEDED LOC (including other payables)
CASH minus NEEDED ADJUSTED LOC
OUTSTANDING LOC BALANCE
EXCESS or (SHORTFALL) CASH BALANCE or LOC
NEEDED TOTAL CASH BALANCE in WORKING CAPITAL
MAXIMUM POTENTIAL BORROWING CAPACITY 65/40/33 net fixed
TOTAL INTEREST BEARING LIABILITIES OUTSTANDING
BORROWING AVAILABILITY or (OVER-BORROWED)
INTEREST BEARING DEBT to EBITDA MULTIPLE
ALTMAN Z BANKRUPTCY SCORE:
WORKING CAPITAL / TOTAL ASSETS
(x 6.56)
ENDING RETAINED EARNINGS / TOTAL ASSETS
(x 3.26)
EARNINGS PRE - INTEREST EXP & INC TAX / TOTAL ASSETS
(x 6.72)
NET WORTH / TOTAL LIABILITIES
(x 1.05)
ALTMAN Z SCORE:
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
$14,219,000
$15,846,000
$24,485,000
$34,975,000
$44,626,000
$26,830,200
569
(1,206,200)
(6,055,600)
32,885,800
0
$32,885,800
485
358
634
727
641
556,000
(1,198,000)
15,417,000
0
$15,417,000
(136,000)
(2,260,000)
18,106,000
0
$18,106,000
(1,697,000)
(4,228,000)
28,713,000
0
$28,713,000
(2,445,000)
(11,958,000)
46,933,000
0
$46,933,000
(2,309,000)
(10,634,000)
55,260,000
0
$55,260,000
(15,417,000)
(18,106,000)
(28,713,000)
(46,933,000)
(55,260,000)
($1,198,000)
($2,260,000)
($4,228,000)
($11,958,000)
($10,634,000)
1,198,000
2,260,000
4,228,000
11,958,000
10,634,000
6,055,600
$2,833,070
610,000
2,223,070
$3,444,520
1,227,000
2,217,520
$3,664,220
1,746,000
1,918,220
$5,324,270
(1,851,000)
7,175,270
$6,696,540
4,298,000
2,398,540
$4,392,524
1,206,000
3,186,524
0.10
0.22
0.18
(0.16)
0.34
0.14
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
AVERAGE
60.20%
3.95
0.00%
22.40%
1.51
857.52%
9.00
14.46
56.27%
3.69
8.18%
0.27
18.43%
1.24
800.20%
8.40
13.60
65.24%
4.28
17.92%
0.58
20.70%
1.39
801.34%
8.41
14.67
48.57%
3.19
23.29%
0.76
18.66%
1.25
398.29%
4.18
9.38
58.74%
3.85
28.41%
0.93
17.06%
1.15
402.97%
4.23
10.16
10
11
12
% of
% of
GROWTH
STANDARD
LINKAGE TO
CURRENT #21
AVERAGE
RATE
in
WORKING
CAPITAL
CASH &PROBABILITY
LOC NEEDREVENUES
DEVIATION
REVENUES
REVENUES
DOLLARS
CASH BALANCE
WC CASH NEED
LOC NEED
$60,000,000
$40,000,000
$20,000,000
$0
($20,000,000)
($6,055,600)
($40,000,000)
($60,000,000)
($80,000,000)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
57.80%
3.79
15.56%
0.63
19.45%
1.31
652.06%
6.85
12.45
Green = continue Amber = warning Red = danger
368
11
Analysis write-up at: http://thebusinessferret.com/?p=1081
Financial data provided through GOOGLE INC. (GOOG). The financial statements are NOT audited or assured by BUSINESS FERRET LLC.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
NET TRADE CYCLE or CASH CONVERSION CYCLE:
ANNUAL YEAR END - NON-AVERAGED
NUMBER OF DAYS TIED UP IN
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE TO REVENUES
CASH RELEASE or (USE) from ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
AVERAGE
50
#DIV/0!
44
$389,528
48
($311,146)
52
($312,118)
52
$63,578
49
($42,540)
NUMBER OF DAYS TIED UP IN
INVENTORIES to REVENUES
CASH RELEASE or (USE) from INVENTORIES
0
#DIV/0!
0
$0
0
$0
0
$0
0
$0
0
$0
LESS: NUMBER OF DAYS TIED UP IN
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE to REVENUES
CASH RELEASE or (USE) from ACCOUNTS PAYABLE
6
#DIV/0!
3
($192,403)
3
$22,851
6
$215,217
6
($35,694)
5
$2,493
% of
% of
GROWTH
NET
CURRENT
AVERAGE #22
RATE
in
AR DAYS
REVENUES
REVENUESINV DAYS
DOLLARS
$300,000
10
11
12
STANDARD
TRADE
CYCLE
PROBABILITY
DEVIATION
AP DAYS
LINKAGE TO
REVENUES
NTC CASH RELEASE
75
$200,000
$100,000
50
$0
($100,000)
NET TRADE CYCLE DAYS:
44
41
45
46
46
44
($200,000)
25
($300,000)
($400,000)
0
Green = continue Amber = warning Red = danger
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
CAPITAL CASH NEEDS FOR FULL NET TRADE CYCLE
DAILY OPERATIONAL EXPENSE CASH NEEDS
NET CASH RELEASE or USE from TRADE CYCLE
CASH GAIN or (LOSS) per Chg in NET TRADE DAYS
WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL:
(using all interest bearing debt)
OVERALL BORROW RATE AFTER TAX
RETURN ON EQUITY (ROE)
FINANCED DEBT to FINANCED DEBT plus EQUITY - percentage
EQUITY to LONG TERM DEBT plus EQUITY - percentage
ACTUAL WEIGHTED COST OF CAPITAL:
ADJ. COST of CAP. with assumed ROE of 26.5% annually
$1,849,130
$45,436
$197,124
$60,544
$2,538,589
$54,858
($96,901)
($81,447)
$3,416,133
$74,247
$27,883
$105,172
$2,448,502
$54,671
($40,047)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
AVERAGE
0.11%
0.00%
14.97%
4.16%
95.84%
0.00%
18.11%
4.63%
95.37%
0.00%
18.39%
-4.17%
104.17%
0.88%
16.75%
6.88%
93.12%
0.22%
17.05%
2.88%
97.12%
14.35%
25.40%
17.27%
25.27%
19.16%
27.61%
15.65%
24.74%
16.61%
25.75%
2.12%
(1.19)
2.11%
0.00
2.30%
0.64
2.06%
4.84
2.15%
1.07
2008
2009
2010
2011
AVERAGE
68.61%
13.25%
112.50%
19.39%
9.09%
10.22%
14.97%
58.40%
22.84%
112.48%
27.57%
13.34%
15.01%
18.11%
50.68%
23.71%
125.11%
29.01%
12.02%
15.03%
18.39%
52.17%
19.00%
124.82%
25.72%
9.91%
12.37%
16.75%
57.47%
19.70%
118.72%
25.42%
11.09%
13.16%
17.05%
0.00%
MONTHLY DISCOUNT PERCENTAGE
ROE % / OPERATING EARNINGS GROWTH %
DUPONT FORMULA - ROI, ROE, and ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED (EVA):
(return on invested capital & return on equity)
REVENUES DIVIDED BY TOTAL ASSETS
NET OPERATING INCOME (NOI) AFTER TAX DIVIDED BY REVENUES
TOTAL ASSETS DIVIDED BY TOTAL EQUITY
NET INCOME AFTER TAX DIVIDED BY REVENUES
RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL ROI:
ADJUSTED RETURN ON EQUITY ROE:
RETURN ON EQUITY ROE:
ROI minus ADJUSTED WEIGHTED COST OF CAPITAL
CUMULATIVE EVA PREMIUM or (DEFICIT) WEALTH
$1,990,154
$44,142
($288,295)
($65,697)
2007
-5.26%
-3.93%
-7.14%
-5.74%
-5.52%
($1,669,930)
($3,261,579)
($7,393,919)
($11,562,255)
($5,971,920)
Green = continue Amber = warning Red = danger
412
12