Unit 1-3: Human Population Growth & Demography Lab
AP Environmental Science I, Mr. Doc Miller
North Central High School
Name:_________________________
Date: __________
Seat #: __________
Period: ____________
LAB: Human Population Growth & Demography
Objective: Predict how variables have different effects on population growth rates, calculate and
graph changes for a given population. (AP Academic Standards, Environmental Science: III-B.)
Pre-Lab Background:
How will our population grow? If you were a demographer, you might be asked to determine how a
population is likely to change in the future. You have learned that both the number of children per
family and the age at which people have children affects the rate of population growth. But which
factor has a greater effect? To explore this question, you will use age-structure diagrams - also
called population pyramids. Use the one below as the basis for this lab.
Materials:
Calculator
Pen/Pencil
Colored Pencils/Markers
Ruler
Graph Paper
Initial Data (Provided)
Procedures:
1.
In this activity you will calculate future population trends for an imaginary city called Doc Island.
To compare how fertility variables may affect population growth, each group of students will
test the effects of different assumptions. Assume the following about the population of this
city.
Assumption About the Population
•
•
•
•
Half the population is male and half is female.
Every woman will have all of her children during a given five-year period of her life.
Everyone who is born will live to the age of 85 and then die.
No one will move into or out of the city.
2.
Your instructor will divide the class into six groups. Each group will project population growth
using the following assumptions.
Assumption About the Woman in the Population
Group
A
B
C
D
E
F
3.
4.
Each woman
gives birth to
5 children
5 children
2 children
2 children
2 children
5 children
While in the age
range of
15-19
25-29
15-19
25-29
30-34
30-34
Predict and rank each of the six groups based on which will have the greatest population
growth in 50 years. Write down the order you would predict for the relative size of the groups
from largest population to smallest population.
Refer to the population data for Doc Island, USA as shown to the right. Use the data in the
table to calculate the age-structure for Doc Island for each 5-year through 2050 starting with
the data provided for the year 2000.
a. Using a spreadsheet or graph paper make
Doc Island, USA Population Data
a completed data table showing
2000
population changes over 5-year
Age Range
Population
increments between the year 2000 and
(Individuals)
2050. Add columns for the years 2005,
80 – 84
100
2010, 2015, etc.
75 – 79
500
b. Calculate the number of 0- to 4- year olds
70 – 74
600
in the year 2005. To do this, first
65 – 69
700
determine how many women will have
60 – 64
800
children between 2000 and 2005.
55 – 59
900
Remember that half of the population in
50 – 54
1,000
each age group is female, and that
45
–
49
1,250
members of the population will reproduce
40 – 44
1,500
at specific ages. Multiply the number of
35 – 39
2,000
childbearing women by the number of
30
–
34
2,500
children that each woman will have.
25 – 29
3,000
c. Fill in the entire column for the year 2005.
20
–
24
4,000
Determine the number of people in each
15 – 19
5,000
age group by shifting each group from the
10
–
14
6,500
previous year.
5–9
8,000
d. Calculate the total population for each 50–4
10,000
year period.
e. Repeat the process described in steps
Total
(a)-(d) for each 5-year period, to complete
Population
48,350
the table through the year 2050.
Females that Give
(# varies per
Birth
group)
New Births
(# varies per
group)
Lab Report Instructions
Format:
1.
Each team will submit one paper (collaborative effort.)
2.
Use the same format (font, size, margins, header, page numbers, title page, etc.) as directed
on the “Lab Report Format” document provide at the beginning of term.
2.
Place all charts/graphs in the appropriate section as indicated by the instructions.
3.
All text should be typed. Graphs may be hand-written or computer generated, but should be in
color to best represent the data (neatness/clarity matters).
Introduction:
1.
In a brief paragraph, explain what data you will be presenting in the paper along with any
instructions the reader needs to be able to understand the concepts that will be presented.
Data:
1.
Include the completed data table that illustrates population growth for each 5-year period.
2.
Include the age-structure diagram (population pyramid) for each decade.
Analysis:
1.
Provide your predictions from procedural step number 3.
2.
Plot the growth of the total population growth for each group on a multiple-line graph. You will
need to collaborate with the other groups to obtain the data for this graph. Be sure to correctly
label your axis and title your graph
3.
Using the population data from your table make one population pyramid for your group’s
population in 2050.
Conclusion:
1.
Comparing the population growths for each of the six groups, and explain whether your
predictions were correct.
2.
Explain which variable had a greater effect on population growth (the number of children each
woman had or the age at which each woman had children.)
3.
Based on your answer above describe one social and one political strategy that a city or
country’s leadership might implement to slow population growth.
4.
Did any of the four groups show no population growth? Explain these results.
Extension:
1.
Research the demography of the United States, including fertility, death rate, and life
expectancy.
2.
From the age-structure diagram in the background section (first page), and your research,
what would you predict to happen to the U. S. population in the next 20 years? In the next 50
years? What parts of the age structure are most important to these predictions?
Works Cites:
1.
Include a proper APA citation for all research used in this lab.
RUBRIC: Human Population Growth & Demography Lab Report
Team Name: _____________________________________________________________________
Members: _______________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________
Topic
Description
Points
Out of
Introduction
- Introduction/explanation of report.
- Explanation of necessary concepts
5
Data Table and AgeStructure Diagram
- Data table is clearly presented with all
necessary units, headings and titles.
- Calculations are correct.
- Age Structure Diagram is clearly presented
with all necessary units, headings and titles.
- Age structure calculations are correct.
Population Growth
Graph
- Population Growth Graph is clearly presented
with all necessary units, headings and titles.
- Data is accurate.
Analysis
- Predictions from part 3 of the lab are clear.
Conclusion
- Evaluate the accuracy of predictions.
- Evaluates impact of various factors in lab.
- Evaluates policies to control population
growth.
10
10
5
Extension
Works Cited
APA Format
- Predications are clearly stated about
population growth in the US over the next
several decades.
- Research is used to support predictions.
- A variety of research is used to support
connections
- Research used is credible
- Font style and size are appropriate
- Header is correctly formatted with page
numbers
- Text is double-spaced (no excess spaces)
- Section headings are properly formatted
- Paper includes a title page and all visuals are
correctly placed.
5
5
5
5
NOTES:
50