Information and Decision Making Systems for the Effective Management of Cross-Scale Environmental Problems: A Theoretical Concept Paper by David W. Cash Susanne C. Moser Prepared for the workshop Local Response to Global Change: Strategies of Information Transfer and Decision Making for Cross-Scale Environmental Risks Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University January 29-30, 1998 Draft: August 17, 1998 This study is based on research supported by the Global Environmental Assessment Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and the International Affairs and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The GEA Project is supported by grants from the Department of Energy’s National Institute for Global Environmental Change through the Great Plains Regional Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (Award No. LWT 62-123-06518), the National Science Foundation (Award No. SRB-9521910), the Department of Energy (Award No. DE-FG02-955ER62122), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change at Carnegie Mellon University. Financial support does not constitute an endorsement by any of the funding agencies of the views expressed in this paper. Information and Decision Making Systems for the Effective Management of Cross-Scale Environmental Problems Abstract This paper provides the beginnings of a theoretical framework for analyzing how information and decision making systems can effectively be structured to address cross-scale environmental management problems. While a number of different fields have addressed the issue of why scale matters, few have explored, either theoretically or empirically, the unique questions associated with cross-scales interactions. Cross-scale interactions are those in which events or phenomena at one level of scale influences events at other levels. We therefore ask how the multi-scale nature of a problem influences responses to environmental risks, with particular focus on how information and decision making systems can be more effectively structured. In asking this question we begin in Section 1 with a set of illustrations that show why cross scale dynamics matter for environmental management. In Section 2 we survey a range of literatures that address issues of scale, information, and decision making. Section 3 synthesizes our findings, and Section 4 poses research questions and directions for further work. 1. Introduction: Why Cross-Scale Dynamics Matter Environmental policy and management fail for many reasons. Among them is the lack of attention paid to the special challenges posed by cross-scale interactions in environmental systems, and to how information and decision systems could be designed to best assist management regimes in solving the problems that arise from them. The cases below illustrate such phenomena for three types of policy failures: “perverse” failures, which exacerbate the problem the policy was designed to remedy; “displacing” failures which, while addressing the original problem, create a new and unanticipated problem; and “ineffectual” failures which do little or nothing to address the problem. Case 1: The Clean Air Act of 1970 - perverse pollution control The Clean Air Act of 1970 (CAA) was designed to address the problem of regional and local air pollution, with the federal government ultimately assigning implementation of the legislation to the newly created Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA, in turn, delegated the locus of responsibility of mitigation to relatively small air quality attainment zones. While much of the implementation of the CAA was flawed, one particular problem was that legislators and agency officials failed to anticipate how the policy decisions being made at the federal or regional level would influence decision making at state and local levels. The EPA, for example, produced incentives for states and municipalities to encourage the construction of taller smokestacks and the use of older, “dirtier” power plants. In addition, the Act provided little integration of emissions release and emissions transport information between attainment zones and across federal, state, and local levels. These conditions led to an increase in the production and transport of exactly those pollutants which contributed to the kinds DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.1 of regional pollution that the CAA was attempting to control (Ackerman and Hassler 1981). Case 2: The side effects of flood control projects - displaced problems Since before World War II, federal policy has directed the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to create large-scale coastal and riverine projects to provide amenities such as hydroelectric power, water for irrigation, and protection from floods. While effectively executing much of its mandate, decision making by the Corps ignored how addressing the large-scale concern of flooding would influence local, individual decision making, and how it would effect other competing national interests like wetlands preservation and biodiversity conservation (Stavins and Jaffe 1990; Faber 1996)1. In an analysis of flood policy in the Mississippi flood plain, for example, Stavins (1990) claimed that “[b]y affecting relative economic returns, public infrastructure investments can induce major changes in private land use. We find that 30 percent of forested wetland depletion in the Mississippi Valley has resulted from private decisions induced by federal flood-control projects, despite explicit federal policy to preserve wetlands.” (Stavins and Jaffe 1990, p. 337) Case 3: ENSO Forecasting - ineffectual use of information In 1991, increasing scientific sophistication allowed earlier and more accurate forecasting information of an impending ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) event. While the American and international meteorological community and international aid providers took responsibility for producing ENSO forecasts, no responsibility was allocated to assuring that potential users of the information at a variety of different scales (from national governments to local farmers) were engaged with the assessment process or that information effectively flowed from the international to the local level. For example, recent research from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which examined responses to an ENSO-related drought in southern Africa concluded that “[a]lthough ENSO information, including a forecast, was ‘out there’ throughout most of 1991, few decision makers within the SADC [Southern African Development Community2] region had access to this information. At the time of the drought, there was no formal structure or process in place for disseminating ENSO information. Few organizations within the region received ENSO information and none sought it….In general, we find ENSO information did not play a significant role in the national, regional, and international responses to the 1991/92 Southern African drought” (Glantz, Betsill et al. 1997). While these cases are exemplars of many environmental and natural resource policies, these kinds of policy failures are not restricted to the arenas of environmental and resource 1 2 Faber (1996) and others also argued that these policies have resulted in perverse failures as well, as wetland loss resulting from flood control projects can lead to greater flooding impacts. At the time of the 1991/92 drought, there were ten members: Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.2 management. Indeed, they are widely observed in other fields such as: development policy (e.g., counterproductive effects of foreign aid programs (Bates 1981; Sahn 1994); extension policy (e.g., failure to link technical knowledge to the prospective user community (Bell, Clark et al. 1994)); and domestic and international fiscal policy (Persson and Tabellini 1994). There are myriad proximate and ultimate causes of these policy failures, including being oblivious to political interests, outright corruption, poorly aligned incentives, gross misunderstanding of the causes of the problems, etc. While some of these factors operated in the three cases mentioned above, one particular management failure was common to all three - existing information and decision making systems in place to support the management of these problems were inadequate for dealing with the cross-scale nature of the problems. The central premise of our argument is that systematic attention to cross-scale relationships can and should improve environmental policy and decision making. Of all the aspects of management that are important in addressing cross-scale environmental problems we intend to focus on just one area:: the role that information and decision making institutions and processes do and can play in supporting the effective management of cross-scale environmental problems. While many causes of policy failure, and inversely, factors which lead to policy success, have long histories of investigation and analysis, how the cross-scale dynamics of environmental problems matter in the policy process has been relatively understudied (Gunderson, Holling et al. 1995). When scale has been addressed, it has been in isolated disciplines, primarily in the natural sciences and geography, and little attention has focused on the dynamics of cross-scale interactions. Moreover, despite the importance of recent research on the role of communication and information in the response to environmental risks, little effort has been made to understand how the assessment of scientific and technical information which is gathered, constructed, and produced at one scale interacts with decision making and risk management strategies at other levels of scale. In addition, there is little understanding of how policies and decisions at one scale constrain or provide opportunities at other scales. Rarely has there been an attempt to synthesize concepts from existing fields into an understanding of how to integrate information and decision systems across different levels of scale in order to more effectively support environmental management. Given the theoretically uncharted nature of information and decision making in the context of cross-scale problems, there is a significant need for setting some theoretical guideposts to focus our attention. This paper is an effort to propose such guideposts and thus to inform our research of information and decision making systems for cross-scale environmental risks. The resulting framework will allow us to move beyond the anecdotes of the three cases presented above, toward a more systematic understanding of how crossscale issues matter. The remainder of this paper consists of a road map of diverse literatures which can act as building blocks of our framework (Section 2). These literatures provide a wide range of valuable contributions, yet our analysis of them is quite specific - teasing from them the insights of how information and decision systems can be designed to aid in the cross-scale integration of environmental management. Section 3 provides a synthesis of the insights DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.3 mined from these literatures, and finally, in Section 4 we offer an outline of research a research agenda that emerges from this synthesis. 2. Theoretical Lenses on Cross-Scale Linkages As mentioned above, no single body of literature fully integrates how cross-scale linkages and dynamics affect the design of information and decision making systems. Several fields, however, provide theoretical lenses through which the analysis of crossscale dynamics can be approached. In this section we discuss five bundles of theoretical perspectives: hierarchy theory and complex systems; human geography; adaptive assessment and management; institutions and common pool resources; and environmental federalism.3 Hierarchy theory and complex systems The central idea of hierarchy theory is that a phenomenon at any level or scale of interest is the synergistic result of the dynamics among components at the next lower level of scale and simultaneously constrained or controlled by the dynamics of components at the next higher level of scale. Hierarchy theory is interested in the interactions among these different levels, and offers several points of entry to study cross-scale interactions. Hierarchy theory presents a perspective on complex systems that facilitates their ordered examination by disaggregating them into interacting processes and structures at different levels of scale (Salthe 1985, p. 17). Its roots are in general systems theory, and it borrows from complexity and chaos theories (Simon 1962; Allen and Starr 1982; O'Neill 1988), and according to Ahl and Allen (1996, p.28) also from philosophy and psychology. The central idea is that a phenomenon at any level or scale of interest is the synergistic result of the faster dynamics of components at the next lower level of scale and is simultaneously constrained or controlled by the slower dynamics of components at the next higher level of scale (Simon 1962; Pattee 1973; O'Neill 1988). “Level of scale” can imply any specific geographic or temporal scale, but also -- and sometimes simultaneously -- levels of organization, levels of observation, or levels of explanation (Ahl and Allen 1996 p. 30). Any given level of scale is defined or bounded by the fact that the interactions at this scale are more frequent and relevant to an understanding of the phenomenon of interest than those between scales. Crucially, hierarchy theory is interested in the interactions among these different levels, hence our interest in it for the purpose of addressing cross-scale management problems through appropriate information and decision making systems. 3 Obviously, there are many other theoretical traditions which could inform our analysis such as network theory, information theory, discourse theory, organization theory, industrial organization, and participatory theory. In addition, there is a wide variety of professional empirical literatures in areas such as business organization and management, medicine, military intelligence, and agricultural and manufacturing extension that also addresses many of the issues in which we are interested. We leave the contributions of these fields to later exploration. DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.4 The phenomena of interest are coherent functional units bounded by intense and frequent interactions among its constituting components (Urban, O'Neill et al. 1987). These functional units commonly match characteristic spatial and temporal scales. For example, if the system of interest is a forest gap of a few meters to a few tens of meters and whose successional stages last on the order of a few years, the dynamics of interest within this gap are determined by the faster, seasonal and daily interactions of species whereas the surrounding forest and physical conditions set the larger, and more slowly changing biotic and abiotic constraints (species available for colonization, microclimate, soil fertility, etc.) for the gap. It is also within the context of the larger forest system that gaps take on ecological significance. A second example taken from the social sciences is the functional unit of the state with its powers, responsibilities, governing institutions, or, even more specifically, a state law or program. State-level programs are constrained and in some ways controlled by or embedded in the larger, functionally higher federal institutions and legal framework, and they constrain to some significant extent the functionally lower governing bodies and actions of sub-state regions, counties, local communities, and their citizens. It is those communities and citizens, however, that give the state legitimacy, and that make the state function in the way it does. It would take the effort of a majority of the citizens of this and many other states (via their political representatives) to change a federal statute, much less one of the fundamental, constitutional provisions, hence the notion of slower processes at higher levels of scale and faster interactions at lower, smaller levels of scale. The connection between one level and the next is made by state variables that matter at both levels (O'Neill 1988). (See the section below, Environmental federalism for a more in-depth treatment of this subject.) These examples illustrate the many uses to which hierarchy theory can be and has been put. It has been applied primarily in ecology (Society for Human Ecology 1992; Holling 1994; Levin 1997; Levin, Grenfell et al. 1997), geomorphology and landscape ecology (Urban, O'Neill et al. 1987), but also to discussions of, sustainable development and resource management (Giampietro 1994; Levin, Grenfell et al. 1997; Wiens 1997), adaptive management (Gunderson, Holling et al. 1995), and the study of global change (Rosswall, Woodmansee et al. 1988). It also has been linked with Holling’s four-partite dynamics of ecosystems (Holling 1995), notions of fractal geometry, and percolation theory (Keitt, Urban et al. 1997) which explicitly examines the degree and manner of connectivity in complex systems. One of the most interesting areas of research is detecting those critical junctures (bifurcation points) in the dynamics of complex systems where the processes at lower levels become disturbed to such an extent that systems at higher levels become unstable and can collapse (O'Neill 1988). A related intriguing research area is determining the critical distances between components of a complex system that still allow the proper functioning of the system by maintaining essential connections (Keitt, Urban et al. 1997). Applied to the design of cross-scale information and decision systems, these questions imply a search for the critical density of information exchange nodes, and for the conditions at lower levels of scale that allow for the type of information exchange necessary for effective decision making. DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.5 Human geography and cross-scale issues For the contemporary human geographer, all social processes, i.e., all human interactions with other humans or with the built and natural environment, are inherently spatial. These socio-spatial processes occur at and affect all different levels of scale from the local to the global. Indeed, scale and the processes that cross and connect scales are simultaneously the tools, the stage, and the objects of inquiry of geographic research. One might expect thus to find a thorough theoretical treatment of crossscale structures and processes which could be borrowed for the design of cross-scale information and decision systems to address global environmental risks. The search for such a theoretical apparatus, however, remains unsatisfying although a review of seminal human geographic works and recent debates yields illuminating, provocative, and seemingly forgotten ideas. Each of the major thematic streams of human geography (after Agnew, Livingstone et al. 1996) is interested in the connections across space. The stream most interested in the spatial distribution of human phenomena and how they come about (involving concepts like region, place, and locality) strongly emphasizes horizontal connections, i.e., linkages within one level of scale (Hartshorne 1939; Tuan 1974; Soja 1985; Urry 1987; Cooke 1989; Cox and Mair 1989; Duncan 1989; Sayer 1991; Couclelis 1992). A second thematic stream which focuses on the social and economic linkages and differences between various parts of the worlds (examined, for example, through spatial analysis and time-geography influential in mid-20th century) are more frequently concerned with vertical (global-tolocal) connections (Nystuen 1963; Haggett 1975; Pred 1977; Hägerstrand 1982; Thrift 1985; Johnston 1997). And finally, that stream in human geography which studies the relationship between society and nature through human/cultural ecological and political economic/ecological approaches attempts a more systemic, integrative (i.e., within and across scale) perspective (Sauer 1925; White 1945; Glacken 1967; Butzer 1980; Blaikie 1985; Blaikie and Brookfield 1987; Meyer 1992). Too often, however, geographers remain silent on what actually connects phenomena at different levels (Smith 1985; Soja 1985), or they retreat into debates over what defines and bounds any one level of scale (Kimble 1951), or they remain frustratingly general and abstract regarding the connecting, constructing, and transforming processes like markets, flows, trade, information exchanges, and authority transfers (Pred 1977). It is nevertheless possible to recall and distill some of the pertinent ideas from these bodies of geographic work. Among the older, much criticized, and since seemingly forgotten ideas on cross-scale socio-spatial processes are those of Haggett who synthesized such processes and their resulting spatial manifestation in a coherent system of ‘nodal regions,’ i.e., open systems that evolve successively from accidental movements into networks with nodes into hierarchies of nested surfaces or planes across which information and innovations move by way of diffusion (reviewed, including its critics, by Johnston (1997)). An equally forgotten approach is that of Hägerstrand (1982) whose work on diffusion of innovations and especially time-geography are relevant to this discussion. Hägerstrand and his colleagues DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.6 conceptualized the behavior or lifelines of individual actors as affected or directed by three basic constraints: capability, coupling, and authority (Pred 1977; Thrift 1977; Hägerstrand 1982). These determine an individual’s path, projects, and the situations in which projects can be carried out (dioramas). Leftist and especially postmodern thinkers have criticized the relative lack of attention to the issue of authority constraints and power relationships – a valid point that must be addressed when looking at information and knowledge transfer and decision making across different levels of scale which often coincide with different degrees and foci of authority (Giddens 1984). A third complex of interrelated ideas and recent theoretical developments within human geography culminated in, but was not restricted to, the so-called ‘locality debate’ (Urry 1987; Cooke 1989; Cox and Mair 1989; Duncan 1989; Sayer 1991). This debate hinged on what ‘locality’ meant, how locality is bound, how it is connected to supra-local processes, and whether it has any causal power to affect cross-spatial processes. The most relevant and interesting ideas that emerged from this debate include Cooke’s (1989) description of local networks of power created as a necessary protection against the overarching powers of the state and the global economy, and as a bridge to connect plural interests at the local scale. Soja (1991) and Smith (1985) helped older geographic coreperiphery ideas to resurface, but this time in the new framework of nested hierarchies around a powerful center affecting processes at different levels of scale (the connections between them they recognized as being barely understood as yet). Urry (1987) and Thrift (1985) contributed an understanding of spatial configurations as enabling people to overcome space (distance as obstacle) and as changing the spatial constraints upon the distribution of knowledge. Duncan and Savage (1989) claimed, echoing similar developments in other fields that in order to understand what happens at one level of scale, one needed to consider adjacent levels and the socio-political context within which actors at any given level function. And yet more recently, influenced by postmodern thought and emerging from empirical work on economic restructuring and technological change (Dicken 1997; Smith 1997; Wackermann 1997), geographers discuss seemingly countervailing processes of interest for questions of information flow: on the one hand the apparent lessening of the significance of hierarchy in socio-spatial interactions (‘the global village’) through the evolution of major nodes or specialist centers embedded in economically, technologically, scientifically, and increasingly administratively integrated ‘learning regions’ (Florida 1995). Change emanates no longer from just one core to a development-poor periphery, but from any of these specialist centers or regions. With this lessening of hierarchies comes the relative equalization or homogenization of “surfaces,” yet, on the other hand, also the starker inequities in the access and privilege to effectively participate in these networks, and a postmodern heightening of differences which may act as barriers to integration, communication, and cooperation (Soja 1985; Urry 1987; Cooke 1989; Florida 1995; Mann 1996; Johnston 1997). Clearly, some of the older ideas presented above have undergone heavy critique and reworking into the more recent understanding of socio-spatial processes and linkages. This reconceptualization continues in part because of new theoretical approaches, and in part because the objects of study are changing as well. Both past and recent geography focus our attention, however, on the cross-scale networks that link people, institutions, places, and regions through political, economic, technological and socio-cultural forces, and on DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.7 the various constraints that processes at one level of scale exert on another. More recent geographic work adds notions of resistance, inequality, the socio-political context in which actors operate, and also, the declining importance of hierarchies, or – in other words – the leveling of the playing field, the implications of which have yet to be explored for information and decision systems. Adaptive assessment and management Adaptive assessment and management of environmental risks and natural resources is deeply rooted in ecological systems and hierarchy theory. Consequently, the theory clearly recognizes the cross-scale nature of management issues, but remains rather silent on how to pragmatically address it. More importantly, adaptive management is more explicit on the importance of committed multi-stakeholder communication and information flow, on the creation of an integrated information and decision system, and on the design of management approaches as a participatory, iterative, learning-oriented and trust-building social process. Over the last two decades, theories of adaptive management have been proposed as a potentially powerful framework of dynamically linking science and policy for addressing multifaceted environmental problems. The central notion of this perspective is that for environmental risks characterized by long time horizons, high levels of uncertainty, and stochasticity, effective policy should be based on adaptive and flexible, (i.e., explicitly learning-oriented) experimentation. Grounded in such varied theoretical arenas as ecology, hierarchy theory, decision theory and optimal control theory, adaptive management stresses the importance of incorporating uncertainty and surprise in modeling and decision making, using explicit policy experimentation to test effective management strategies, providing fora for multi-stakeholder involvement in the assessment and management process, and, most important for the purposes of this paper, developing a nuanced understanding of how phenomena at different temporal and spatial scales interact in natural and human systems (Holling 1978; Walters 1986; Lee 1993; Gunderson, Holling et al. 1995). The theoretical conception underlying the understanding of interaction across scale is that of a nested hierarchy, and draws primarily from theories of ecosystem dynamics (for a more detailed exploration of hierarchy theory see the Hierarchy theory and complex systems section above). Despite this theoretical footing in ecology, proponents of the adaptive management approach posit that human systems like governments, business firms, or academic institutions share similar attributes of hierarchically nested and processes (Simon 1962). The challenge for management regimes to avoid policy pathologies arises because natural as well as human systems “proceed at [their] own pace and in [their] own space, and that creates extraordinary conflicts when ecosystems, institutions, and societies function on scales that are extremely mismatched. If the scale of all three becomes more congruent, it is likely that the inevitable bursts of human learning can proceed with less conflict and more creativity.” (Holling 1995, p.73). DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.8 Some empirical testing of this approach has occurred and proven promising in the context of several instances of natural resource management (e.g., for forests, fisheries, estuaries, etc. - Lee 1993; Rabe and Zimmerman 1995; Ermoliev, Klaassen et al. 1996; National Research Council 1996). Overall, however, empirical reports on these experiences have not fully addressed cross-scale dynamics or the scale mismatch issue. Instead, adaptive assessment and management emphasizes three important structural design and process questions that are immediately relevant to our focus on information and decision systems. The first of these highlights the importance of information flow and communication: committed, continuous, bi-directional, and cross-scale, involving scientists and other specialists, policy-makers, and ideally a wide range of stakeholders (Chance and Draper 1996; O'Hara 1996; O'Riordan and Ward 1997). The second important proposition from the adaptive management approach is the emphasis on designing integrated information provision/creation and decision-making systems. To the extent that open, transparent, non-coercive information flow, mutual learning and respect for different approaches, perspectives, needs, and stakes contribute to the building of trustworthy relationships and mutual understanding, decision making may proceed toward more satisfactory, acceptable, consensual, and ultimately more effective and efficient management strategies (Kasperson, Golding et al. 1997; O'Riordan and Ward 1997). Finally, and related to the previous point, is that adaptive management is essentially a participatory, iterative social process that involves representatives from different scientific disciplines, from policy-making and management, and from different levels of scale. This structural and procedural design results precisely from the recognition that natural and societal processes operate at various levels of scale and produce phenomena that can affect all scales (Beanlands and Duinker 1983; Lee 1993; Lee 1995; O'Riordan and Ward 1997). Adaptive management tries to tap into existing social networks and to put in place missing links and fora where such representatives can come together (Holling 1978; O'Riordan 1997). Institutions and common pool resources Drawing from a wide range of fields such as game theory, social capital theory, and public choice theory, institutional analysis of the management of common pool resources provides several insights into cross-scale dynamics. First, in order to understand the opportunities and constraints faced by communities facing common pool resource problems it is necessary to examine the “nested” relationships of governance structures or institutions at different levels of scale (i.e., the set of externally prescribed rules under which they operate). Second, institutions at different levels of scale might have comparative advantages in producing and supplying certain types of information. Thus, exploiting these comparative advantages can reduce information and monitoring costs. One specific area of research which has shed light on decision making processes for natural resource management investigates common pool resources (CPRs) - resources which are subtractable (as opposed to a pure public good where appropriation by one user DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.9 does not diminish the amount that can be appropriated by another user), whose appropriation affects the rate of renewal of the resources (if it is a renewable resource, such as fish), and whose access is difficult to limit (Oakerson 1992). While initial exploration produced theoretically innovative ways of exploring commons problems like the “tragedy of the commons”, “prisoners’ dilemma” or collective action problems (Olson 1971; Hardin 1982) - they lacked a robust treatment of the role that institutions can play in common pool situations. More recent theory building and empirical research draw not only on traditional game theory, but on a variety of different theoretical traditions such as bounded rationality, social capital, decision theory, political economy, and public choice theory to provide a more complex and dynamic framework of analysis (Ostrom 1990; Bromley 1992; Ostrom, Gardner et al. 1994). While these developments provide a rich store of insights into decision making about common pool natural resources, we limit our attention only to those contributions which can sharpen our focus on cross-scale issues and information and decision systems. First, an explicit component of institutional analysis of CPRs is to acknowledge that what happens at one scale can provide institutional constraints or opportunities at other scales. “[A]ppropriation, provision, monitoring, enforcement, conflict resolution, and governance activities are organized in multiple layers of nested enterprises… Establishing rules at one level, without rules at the other levels, will produce an incomplete system that may not endure over the long run...” (Ostrom 1990, pp. 101-102). These “rules” are defined broadly and provide the context within which local actors make decisions and play the “game.” For example, the “game” that is played by resource appropriators at a local level may be governed by “rules” that are developed, imposed, implemented, and enforced by external authorities at a different level of scale (e.g., a federal agency). These “rules” can take the form of many different kinds of arrangements external to the actual appropriation community and result in a complex set of multi-scale relationships. Such external arrangements can include “establishing the capability of the community of users to engage in local collective choice” and to establish monitoring and sanctioning activities, making the community “substantially dependent on external decision makers for the legislation and enforcement of operational rules,” providing third-party authorities (such as courts) to resolve disputes between appropriators, or creating “market arrangement external to the commons…establishing economic parameters within which management of the commons can be undertaken” (Oakerson 1992, pp. 48-49). Another shortcoming of earlier theories of CPRs which relied on prisoners’ dilemmatype games, was an insensitivity to how flows of information could change equilibrium outcomes (Ostrom 1990). By relaxing restrictive assumptions about communication and information, recent work has focused on the conditions under which communication can aid in overcoming commons dilemmas.4 Theories of social capital, for example, suggest the importance of communication in building trust and thus establishing an environment amenable to compromise, consensus, and mutually advantageous decision making (Putnam, Leonardi et al. 1993; Fountain 1998). Thus, cross-scale dynamics take on theoretical importance in the challenge of building social capital across different levels of 4 Note the similarity to theories of international organization in which supra-national institutions can provide a variety of information services that enhance monitoring, sanctioning, and change preferences, etc....(Krasner 1983; Haas, Keohane et al. 1994; Krasner 1994; Young 1994; Keohane and Levy 1996) DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.10 scale. For example, in addition to providing a structure of rules within which local decision makers operate, authorities at higher levels of scale can also provide “institutional arrangements that encourage communication among individuals facing similar problems.” (Ostrom 1990, p.210). This can result in improved communication and monitoring within CPRs, and in improved transfer of institutional knowledge between CPRs. In addition, perhaps because of the physical attributes of the CPR, or the technical difficulties associated with understanding them, economies of scale might be realized in information production. Large-scale central agencies might be better suited than smaller scale counterparts to engage in the scientific research, monitoring, and dissemination efforts necessary for effective management. Alternatively, higher scale institutions might not have the local expertise and intimate knowledge necessary to effectively understand the structure and function of resource use. These last two points illuminate the possible benefits gained from a coordinated approach that combines the local knowledge at small scales with the scientific, technical, and integrative advantages at larger scales. In effect, integration across scales (e.g., between local, state, and federal agencies) may help to reduce information and transactions costs, allowing CPR appropriators to construct selfimposed regulatory management schemes with informational support from higher levels of scale. Environmental federalism At what scale of government should decision making reside? This is the core question that defines the study of federalism, and it is the subject of the dynamic constitutional tensions which characterize the polity of federated states. Theories of environmental federalism elucidate conditions under which responsibility should be vested at different levels of government. Application of such theories is extraordinarily complex and, in practice, there is little consensus in answering this central question in the environmental arena. Environmental federalism does however suggest the importance of coordination and integration of decision making across scale, regardless of where ultimate authority lies. A fundamental question which has permeated political discourse in federated countries such as the United States, Mexico, Switzerland, India, and Australia has been at what level of government - federal, state, or local - does appropriate authority for decision making reside?5 It is obvious from this question that scale is a significant object of theoretical interest, and research in democratic theory has focused on issues of appropriate unit size, scale and representative legitimacy, and capacity of different sized units to address different kinds of issues (Dahl 1989). Not only does scale per se matter in these discourses, but cross-scale issues are central as well: actions that occur at one level of 5 The question of federalism has also been addressed in the context of multi-nation bodies of governance such as the European Union, and international treaties such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. While this paper focuses on the national and subnational information and decision systems, collaborative research with other members of Harvard’s Global Environmental Assessment Project will explore these issues in the context of international systems of governance. DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.11 government (i.e., legislative, regulatory, monitoring, or information production) influence the suite of actions available to decision makers at other levels of government. While issues of federalism pervade a wide range of policy topics, such as health care, welfare and education, the complexities of environmental management provide particular challenges which have spawned growing normative and positive analyses of environmental federalism (see Percival 1995; Holland, Morton et al. 1996 for reviews). Political science, economic theory, political economy, and legal scholarship have provided a variety of theoretical lenses through which to examine questions of federalism in the context of environmental decision making. All, however, begin with a presumption of local control for environmental management, with the locus of control shifting to higher levels of scale under certain conditions: 1) The existence of transjurisdictional externalities. Both legal and economic theory highlight the existence of externalities as a fundamental justification for more central (higher level) control of environmental protection (Esty 1996; Congressional Budget Office 1997). For example, “if some of the cost-bearers or beneficiaries of an environmental action fall outside the borders of the regulating jurisdiction, their interests in the policy outcome may not be taken into account.” (Esty 1996, p.587). Absent a supra-juridictional authority to provide environmental protection in this case (and absent the conditions that allow for Coasian bargaining - no transactions costs, small number of parties, perfect information, and no income effects), efficient provision of environmental protection will not occur. This class of problems covers a wide range of both environmental and natural resource issues such as commons problems, pollution, and public good provisions (Light and Wodraska 1990; Congressional Budget Office 1997). 2) Risks are shared by multiple jurisdictions. For these types of risks, coordinated management across jurisdictions at the same level and across different levels, can be prohibitively costly without the facilitating role of a central authority (Rabe and Zimmerman 1995; Kincaid 1996). This is particularly relevant with the challenges posed by local technical incapacity for information production (e.g., scientific research), central inability to monitor local conditions and the challenges of coordinating information flow across jurisdictions, both horizontally and vertically. 3) Race to the bottom effects. The standard political economy argument for this effect is that “interjurisdictional competition for economic growth drives regulation to its lowest common denominator” (Kincaid 1996). This “race to the bottom” can be avoided by allocating control of the issue to a more centralized agency which is “above” the competition for local economic growth (Esty 1996). Recent economic and legal analyses have questioned both the theoretical and empirical validity of the race to the bottom hypothesis (Revesz 1997). The above conditions provide guidance for the allocation of authority, though there is still little theoretical and practical consensus on interpretation of these kinds of guideposts. For example, in the U.S. there are glaring inconsistencies in the judicial system regarding the appropriate allocation of authority for the management of a wide range of environmental and natural resource issues: “The courts have not applied a consistent set of federalism principles in environmental regulation cases.” (Wise and O'Leary 1997, p. 158). It is equally true, however, that this guidance suggests little in terms of effective approaches of implementing environmental policy in the context of federalist structures, even if the appropriate level of responsibility is selected. In the context of the U.S., the DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.12 Congress uses three intergovernmental strategies: 1) cooperative - federally approved plans are implemented by state and local authorities, with some degree of discretion; 2) conjoint - precise federal standards are implemented by state and local authorities, with limited discretion and the threat of federal implementation resulting from inadequate regulation; and 3) national - federal plans and standards implemented by federal agencies (Kincaid 1996). Both the theoretical conditions under which more centralized control is indicated, and the three U.S. strategies of implementation, highlight the importance of cross-scale interactions in federated systems. Actions which cause externalities at local levels call for higher levels of government to intervene. Regulatory policies at higher levels of government are designed to constrain actions at lower levels, yet they may also provide opportunities (e.g., through federal funding or political backing, or information provision) which were not available or feasible previously. This cross-scale political and regulatory intervention, however, demands that policies are appropriate for the level of scale at which they apply. Hence, coordination across scale (and across governments and agencies at the same level) in both decision making and information transfer is both critical and poses unique challenges (Kincaid 1996; Patton 1996; National Governors' Association 1997). 3. A Cautious Synthesis Trying to find the golden thread of cross-scale theorizing that runs through as diverse a range of fields in the natural and social sciences as we discussed above, is an ambitious task at least. Even more so, it harbors the dangers of oversimplification, misinterpretation, misapplication, and inappropriate linkages between various components. These dangers ought to be recognized at the outset of setting the first few guideposts for an integrative framework. The review above suggests a number of areas in which the different bodies of theory obviously overlap. Quite likely, these overlaps are in part to be explained by crossdisciplinary fertilization as individual disciplines do not evolve in a paradigmatic vacuum. In part, these overlaps may indicate convergence resulting from genuine systemic similarities that physical, ecological, and social phenomena share. It is tempting thus to conclude that certain concepts apply across scales, across locales, across disciplines, and across levels of examination. We are certainly not the first to call to caution that such a conclusion may be overly optimistic at best and outright wrong at worst, but we raise these warning flags here again to prevent the latter. First, there is the danger of the ecological fallacy, that is, applying the same laws, regularities, and relationships between variables when moving from one scale to another. It is far from established and frequently incorrect to assume that a collective of individuals acts in the same way as individuals on their own, that the whole is just the sum of its parts. Second, there is the hazard of committing the geographic fallacy, that is, generalizing across space. For example, the cross-scale dynamics of an ecosystem in one place may not be the same as those in another place because it is nearly impossible to account for all boundary conditions. Or, what cross-scale cooperation happens in one state government may not be feasible in another even if both belong to the same overarching federal system. DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.13 Clearly, these two types of fallacies can be avoided by careful research design, through empirical testing of causal hypotheses between different pairs of scale levels and between different places, and by careful interpretation of the results. The third danger is that of the systemic or ontological fallacy, that is, drawing parallels between phenomena about their ultimate nature that are addressed by different fields, with different theories and different methods, but that resemble each other only at a superficial level. Even the same terminology used in different disciplines may mean rather different things. This is a danger accompanying all cross- and interdisciplinary work and can only be resolved by interdisciplinary peer review. And finally, there is the possibility of the epistemic fallacy, that is, consistently associating particular degrees of abstraction, theory-ladenness, or contextuality with particular levels of geographic or temporal scale. For example, to equate the abstract, general, and theoretical with the global and the concrete, contingent, and empirical only with the other end of the spectrum, the local level of scale, would be committing this type of fallacy. It deprives the local of all theoretical content and denies the global even the slightest degree of haphazard contingency. These calls to caution notwithstanding, our review reveals several common themes which will serve here as our nodes of synthesis. At this stage, we consider them as no more than guideposts for developing a better understanding of how information and decision making can be improved to address the particular challenges that cross-scale environmental problems pose to management. The first and most obvious common theme that all the above approaches discuss or use is that of hierarchy, of nested events, organizations, or cycles which operate on different spatial and temporal scales. These scales of organization really do exist in natural, social, and management systems (that is, they are not mere social constructs and more than heuristics): they form rather “naturally” for reasons of efficiency, cost-effectiveness, specialization, and so on. The central implication of this view of “scale” is that, in general, interactions within one level of scale are more frequent and important than interactions among different levels of scale, which is precisely what helps us define and distinguish them. From this view follows also that we imply some sort of “friction” or impediment to move from scale to scale. Common environmental management experience tells us that effective management of certain environmental systems can often be carried out through approaches that ignore cross-scale interactions and concentrate instead on the strong interactions within scale. This, indeed, is where most of our management experience resides. The management of indoor radon or the clean-up of a pond polluted by the release of toxic sludge from an adjacent factory can be dealt with quite efficiently and effectively at a single level of scale. This management experience makes it seductive to stay at a single level of scale and to regard adjacent levels of scales simply as boundary conditions, regardless of the nature of the problem to be managed. Many kinds of environmental management problems, however, especially those that fall under the rubric of “global change”, involve significant cross-scale relationships and these must be addressed if the management is to be effective. We base this argument on a second major insight gleaned from Section 2, namely that cross-scale interactions, if occurring less frequently, are nonetheless crucial to the functioning and behavior of entire systems or of components of subsystems at various scales. Ignoring or misdiagnosing such DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.14 cross-scale interactions frequently leads to surprise and policy failure. Despite the complex nature of these interactions, we can draw a number of generalizations about how crossscale interactions in the managed system can contribute to policy failure: • Disregarding the dynamics at a higher level of scale (relative to the level or system of interest), which serve as constraints on the system, can contribute to policy failure. For example, regional climate and climate change determine local groundwater recharge rates and water availability of an aquifer. Management systems regulating solely the withdrawal of water by individuals do not take the limits imposed by the climate and larger ground and surface water system into account. • Disturbing the dynamics of sub-systems at a lower level of scale, the parts of which make up the system of interest, can also lead to policy failure. For example, the delicate balance of flooding, sedimentation, and organic growth produces coastal wetlands which function as habitat, water purifier, flood protection, and recreation area. Structural flood control measures impede the continued formation and inland movement of coastal wetlands which would allow them to naturally adapt to a rise in sea level. • Allowing, supporting, or disregarding chronic disturbances of sub-system (lower level) dynamics which exhaust a system’s resilience may lead to a threshold beyond which the system collapses. For example, the overharvesting of fish below a minimum population that can reproduce and thus sustain itself will lead to the total collapse of this marine resource. Presumably, there are many ways in which the management of environmental systems might be improved to address important cross-scale relationships of the kind described above and in the policy failure examples given at the beginning of this paper. The one on which we focus our attention is the design of appropriate information and decision systems that integrate across scale. How exactly can information and decision systems that integrate across scale help in the management of cross-scale environmental problems? This is the central question that we will aim to answer in our empirical research. The institutional and management approaches reviewed in Section 2 suggest a number of answers to pursue in this research: • Coordination: Information and decision systems that integrate across scales facilitate coordinated action on behalf of “commons”-like problems, of problems that affect several jurisdictions, or that cause externalities to areas distant from the source. • Effectiveness/efficiency: Across-scale integrating information and decision systems can bank on the comparative advantage that actors or institutions at any one level of scale may have in producing, providing, or disseminating a particular kind of information or knowledge, or in their capacity to act (make decisions) most appropriately and readily on a problem. For example, at the international or national level, greatest capacities (financial resources, scientific brain power, human resources, computer facilities) may DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.15 exist to model climate change impacts and to simulate different large-scale policy response options, yet they need to be connected with and translated into the knowledge of the legality and feasibility of laws and regulations that exist or can be created at the national/federal and state level. In this regard, systems at a higher level of scale may not only impose constraints on lower levels, but with their greater capacities also offer opportunities that would not be realizable at a lower level of scale. The most appropriate implementation of the generated model results, policy options, and regulations can still not be guaranteed, however, without connecting to the intimate knowledge of local environmental, economic, political, institutional, and socio-cultural conditions. • Removal of barriers and impediments: The flip side of greater coordination and of employing the comparative advantage of any given level of scale is the reduction or elimination of hurdles created by regulation, wrongly placed incentives, and mutual ignorance of needs, stakes, capacities, and limits. To name but a few common examples, certain federal policies may constrain or undermine “good” behavior at lower levels of scale; the availability of funds for a particular level of jurisdiction may not match with the boundaries of the management problem; or the provision of information may prove meaningless because potential information users either do not have access to the information or do not know how to interpret and use it. • Legitimacy: Information and decision systems that integrate across scale tap into, maintain, and/or create an actively engaged, civicly oriented, and well educated citizenry at all levels of scale. This active engagement, in turn, legitimizes action and the institutional arrangements set up to carry them out. It thus functions as an important asset for effective and efficient governance in democratic societies (Putnam, Leonardi et al. 1993; Kasperson, Golding et al. 1997). Another insight gained from the review of the various theoretical approaches discussed in Section 2 is that there are barriers to building information and decision making systems that integrate across scales. Among the sources of “friction” inhibiting such integration we can identify the following: • Missing links and missed opportunities: It is quite possible that many unused, inexpensive, yet easily realizable opportunities exist to link actors and institutions at and within various levels of scale. These currently missing links may act as barriers to useful information flow, and need to be revived, discovered, or mobilized. • Lack of technical and institutional capacity: At any given level of scale, the needed technical, economic, or institutional capacity may be missing to produce, process, or disseminate information and knowledge, to connect with other information providers, users, and decision makers, or to make adequate decisions because of a lack in legal authority. DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.16 • Incompatibility of perspectives and “languages:” The differences among scientific, managerial, and lay and/or local types of knowledge, ways of conceptualizing problems, and the respective languages in which they are conveyed may impede mutual understanding, the ability to interpret information, and to use it appropriately in decision making. For example, it is no small challenge to tell a farmer what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change learned and to translate these global scientific findings into locally and individually imaginable and relevant facts. It is equally difficult to ask a coastal manager to “take projections of global sea-level rise into account” in their local setback requirements. Language and knowledge barriers may also be heightened by the differing degrees of power with which they are invested culturally. • Lack of trust, social capital, and a sense of disenfranchisement: The essence or outcome of building, and building on, social capital is that constituents involved in policy formulation, decision making, and implementation begin to have a stake in the outcome of their “project.” Being heard and taken seriously, being actively involved in open, transparent discourse, seeing one’s perspectives and knowledges employed and used, builds trust among the various actors engaged in information and decision making networks. “[P]ublic discourse needs to be continuous and ongoing and not, as often happens, occur only sporadically or episodically. For discourses to be continuous, citizens require not only the opportunities but the means and resources to acquire and evaluate information. Finally, people must be empowered to enter into decisions and to see the results actually implemented” (Kasperson, Golding et al. 1997, p. 12, emphasis added). The resulting trust, as Putnam (1993, p.171) explains, lubricates cooperation and cooperation breeds trust. The absence of trust-building discourses is likely to inhibit the interest in or use of information originating from certain sources. Arguably, trust, social capital, and a real sense of empowerment, are not specific as lubricants for cross-scale interactions. They do take on a special crossscale relevance, however, when individuals in and outside of government or management institutions feel unmotivated to engage in environmental matters, when they are disenfranchised from their representatives at higher levels of scale, when they perceive their engagement not to make any difference because others with more power decide over their heads anyway, or when they expect representatives from other levels of scale to take the initiative on certain environmental matters. Our empirical research may uncover further barriers to the development of information and decision systems that integrate across scale. It should also reveal the relative importance of these barriers under different circumstances. Understanding these barriers, and the crucial functions they inhibit, will lead to the identification of characteristics of information and decision systems that are effective in linking across scales (and hence which promote a more effective management of cross-scale phenomena), as well as the identification of pathologies that inhibit such performance. 4. Research Directions DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.17 The synthesis presented in the previous section presented a number of guideposts that are critical for gaining a better understanding of how information and decision systems can more effectively support the management of cross-scale environmental problems. They call for close examination of processes at each level of scale and between scales, and suggest a research agenda which focuses on the following questions: • What cross-scale interactions pose the greatest challenges to contemporary management of environmental problems? Can we create a typology of such interactions that will help identify appropriate information and decision systems? • How are information and decision systems currently and potentially linked across global, national, and local levels which address cross-scale environmental problems? • How do "good" information and decision making systems help with the management of such cross-scale problems? How do "bad" ones hinder it? What is the difference in the systems? • What are the barriers or pitfalls that keep information and decision systems from effectively addressing cross-scale environmental problems? • What can be done to break down the barriers, or avoid the pitfalls? Going a step further, our synthesis also suggests a number of propositions about how information and decision systems can be structured to effectively support the management of cross-scale environmental problems. Eventually, these propositions may lead to broader generalizations about environmental management and about the design of specific information and decision systems. As a note of caution, however, we should emphasize one theme which runs throughout the various literatures we have reviewed: the kinds of environmental problems in which we have an interest are extraordinarily context-specific. Institutions, history, legal frameworks, and culture will vary greatly from locale to locale, from problem to problem, and the cross-scale interactions that define and provide opportunities and constraints will vary as well. Thus, our propositions are not recipes for specific management, but broad categories of strategies that might cut across different situations and contexts. In addition, these differences speak to the importance of a research approach that is comparative along several dimensions. Comparing, for example, how different information and decision systems have addressed similar environmental management problems will help identify the conditions under which certain management strategies effectively deal with the cross-scale nature of environmental problems. This comparison will highlight the institutional, political, and social variables which can best explain effective cross-scale management. Comparisons across different environmental problems will also be critical in identifying the challenges posed by specific managed systems. What are the specific cross-scale interactions, for example, in the human and natural systems that present particular barriers or pitfalls for specific management systems? While we acknowledge this context-specific nature of management problems, our synthesis suggests a number of general propositions. As we conduct our research into DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.18 specific cross-scale problems we expect to find that effective information and decision systems support management institutions and processes which: • coordinate decision making across different levels of scale; • coordinate information systems across different levels of scale; • integrate decision making and information functions across different levels of scale; and • exploit comparative advantages in information and decision making capabilities at different levels of scale.6 Though we expect these propositions to be supported by field research (and to be further refined and sharpened), we also expect to construct a deeper understanding of what “coordinating decision making”, “coordinating information systems”, and “integrating decision making and information functions” across different levels of scale means. One environmental problem which we find to be particularly rich for addressing these kinds of issues is human-induced climate change. The natural system is complex, multidimensional and is characterized by cross-scale dynamics. There are, for example, numerous interactions between biological, chemical, and geological systems. Human interactions with the system are equally multi-faceted and span the ranges of temporal and spatial scales. The management system that has been developing over the last ten years is also one that is suited for the kind of cross-scale analysis we propose. Recent action has focused on international-level negotiations and decisions, yet these decisions will invariably have impacts that cross many levels of scale and provide opportunities or constraints. In addition, international negotiations are influenced by the actions, decisions, and information produced at lower levels of scale. Moreover, regardless of action on the international level, actors at lower levels of scale are already developing interest in the potential impacts and adaptation responses. It is becoming increasingly clear that without cognizance of cross-scale dynamics and the role that information and decision systems play in such dynamics, efforts to address climate change will be frustrated. Thus, we plan to undertake a research project which analyzes decision making and information systems in response to potential global climate change. Understanding the importance of comparative research in this kind of endeavor, our research is structured to compare management strategies for climate change in two different managed systems: the agriculture sector and the coastal zone. As part of this analysis, we will also conduct comparative analyses of different cross-scale management strategies within these systems: a comparison of water management across three states in the Great Plains (Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas); and a comparison of Maine and Hawaii’s coastal zone management systems. By structuring our research this way - using cross6 Note that our arguments for cross-scale integrated environmental management may describe but a special case of the more general argument that whenever cross-scale dynamics are important, effective governance depends on cross-scale integration, and that information and decision making systems can be useful vehicles to achieve this integration. This however, awaits a more broadly defined research agenda. DRAFT January 20, 1998 p.19 issue and cross-state comparisons - we are able to test a number of our propositions. For example, Nebraska, Texas, and Kansas have three different institutional systems (which can be thought of as different hypotheses for effective management) for addressing similar water resource problems. These different institutional systems vary, for example, in the degree to which they integrate information and decision systems across different levels of scale. Thus, we might be able to test the notion that greater integration of this type will lead to more effective management. Likewise, Maine and Hawaii have two different institutional structures for addressing cross-scale coastal zone management. For example, the two states differ in the degree to which information systems are coordinated across different levels of scale, from the local to the federal levels. This comparison might elucidate the role that coordination of information systems plays in managing the coastal zone (See accompanying Research Protocol for more detailed description of this project.) Finally, by comparing agriculture and coastal zone systems, we hope to gain insights into the conditions under which different environmental problems require different management strategies. The overarching goal for this kind of research is to address the question that opened this paper - how can information and decision making systems be effectively structured to address cross-scale environmental management problems? Within this broad goal, however, we identify three specific objectives. First, this research should help contribute to theories from which we constructed our synthesis. For each of the five bundles of theories explored in Section 2, an added perspective on cross-scale dynamics could be enriching. Second, we hope this research will further our task of integrative theorybuilding, begun here with the exposition of theoretical guideposts. 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