Juho Härkönen
Stockholm University Demography Unit
Swedish Institute for Social Research
Email: juho.harkonen@sofi.su.se
http://people.su.se/~jhr

Contents
• Trends in divorce in Europe
• Cross-national
• Population sub-groups (education)
• Consequences
• Effects on adults
• Effects on children
• (Consequences of living in high-divorce societies)
• Policies

Crude divorce rates, 1960-2000
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
1960 1970 1980
GER
FR
UK
SWE
SP
POL
1990 2000
Source : Council of Europe (2004)

Crude divorce rates, 2000-10
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GER
SWE
IT
Source : Eurostat (2011)

Crude divorce rates, 2000-10
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
SP
POL
PRT
Source : Eurostat (2011)

Crude divorce rates, 2000-10
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source : Eurostat (2011)
UK
FR
EST

Summing up recent trends
• The long-term trend has been of increasing divorce
(and separation from cohabs)
• In some countries, divorce rates seem to have slowly leveled off or even decreased
• In other countries, the upward trend still ongoing
• Many families now formed outside marriage; less accurate information on their stability

Heterogeneous trends
• Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends
• Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education
• In some countries highly educated divorce more
• In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more
• Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated

Heterogeneous trends
• Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends
• Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education
• In some countries highly educated divorce more
• In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more
• Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated

Heterogeneous trends
• Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends
• Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education
• In some countries highly educated divorce more
• In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more
• Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated

Heterogeneous trends
• Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends
• Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education
• In some countries highly educated divorce more
• In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more
• Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated

Union dissolution in Sweden, odds ratios
(reference: low educ in oldest cohort)
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
1965-71 1972-78
Low educ
1979-85 1986-92
Source : Härkönen & Dronkers(2006)

Union dissolution in Sweden, odds ratios
(reference: low educ in oldest cohort)
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
1965-71 1972-78
Low educ
Mid educ
1979-85 1986-92
Source : Härkönen & Dronkers(2006)

Union dissolution in Sweden, odds ratios
(reference: low educ in oldest cohort)
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
1965-71 1972-78
Low educ
Mid educ
High educ
1979-85 1986-92
Source : Härkönen & Dronkers(2006)

Trends in single parenthood (% all mums)
Great Britain Denmark
30
20
10
0
Low
Middle
High
30
20
10
0
Low
Middle
High
West Germany Italy
30
20
10
0
Low
Middle
High
30
20
10
0
Low
Middle
High
Source : Mannheim Eurobarometer Trend File, own calculations

Consequences for adults
• Divorcees have worse physical and psychological health
• Stronger for men? Maybe limited to physical health
• Divorce has negative monetary consequences for women
• Less so for men
• Large country variation
• Economic security and social support reduce the wellbeing effects of divorce

Consequences for kids
• In Europe, most single-parent households formed through parental divorce
• Children of divorce have
• More material well-being deficits
• Poorer schooling outcomes
• More problem behaviors and crime
• Poorer mental and physical health
• Less stable own relationships
• Weaker relationships with parents and grandparents

Consequences for kids
• Can be long-lasting (often stronger in short-run)
• No consistent gendered effects
• Effects can be stronger at early ages or around key life transitions
• No strong evidence that effects weakened over time
• Effects can also be positive: In general, very heterogeneous effects

Consequences for kids
• Proper material conditions can reduce the negative effects of divorce
• Parents’ own adjustment important
• Psychological well-being
• Parenting
• Kids’ relation to their parents
• Parents’ relations to one another
• Step-parenting can reduce material problems, effects on other well-being less clear

Consequences for kids
…research indicates that children function reasonably well after divorce if their standard of living does not decline dramatically, their resident mothers are psychologically well adjusted and engage in high-quality parenting, they maintain close ties to fathers, and their parents avoid conflict and engage in at least a minimal level of cooperation in the postdivorce years.”
- Paul Amato and Spencer James (2010),
1(1): 2-13

Are the effects causal?
• Does the fact that people who experienced divorce have poorer outcomes mean that divorce caused these?
• Hard to determine in absence of experiments
• Many studies suggest that at least partly yes
• Divorce should be seen as both a process and event
• A process that starts well before and ends well after the event itself
• Implications for our understanding and policy responses

Are the effects causal?
• Does the fact that people who experienced divorce have poorer outcomes mean that divorce caused these?
• Hard to determine in absence of experiments
• Many studies suggest that at least partly yes
• Divorce should be seen as both a process and event
• A process that starts well before and ends well after the event itself
• Implications for our understanding and policy responses

Strengthening of inequalities?
• Educational gradients in divorce and family change can strengthen the consequences of divorce
• Family change can become a ”new” pathway through which intergenerational inequalities are reproduced
• Little research thus far, available evidence does not suggest major role for family structure for intergenerational reproduction of inequality

Policy responses: Causes
• Tightening divorce laws possibly of limited effect
• Many families formed outside marriage
• Divorce laws also affect intact marriages (in good and bad)
• Counseling
• Can have positive effects

Policy responses: consequences
• Income transfers and employment support can ameliorate economic hardship due to divorce
• Can become especially important if class-gradients widen
• Do welfare policies increase divorce and single parenthood?
• Some evidence suggests that yes
• Welfare policies can also stabilize families by lowering economic strains in families

Policy responses: consequences
• Counseling can help with coping
• Co-parenting after divorce on the rise
• Good: remain contact with both parents
• Overall effects on child well-being not well-known; likely heterogeneous

Summary
• Divorce has increased or is increasing in European countries, but country differences prevail
• In many countries, especially among the least educated
• Divorce can create unwelcome turbulence that can have lasting effects
• Transfer- and employment focused policies can smoothen material consequences but likely to have limited effect on other (longer-term) outcomes

Standardized divorce rates, Sweden
1971-2007
2
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Source : Andersson and Kolk (2011)
Standardized for age, marriage duration parity, premarital childbearing, duration since 1st birth

Standardized divorce rates, Sweden
1971-2007
2
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
1971 1976 1981 1986
?
1991 1996 2001 2006
Source : Andersson and Kolk (2011)
Standardized for age, marriage duration parity, premarital childbearing, duration since 1st birth