Achieving Wider Access to Higher Education Howard Samuels Center, CUNY & Ford Foundation, New York, New York February 25, 2010 Presentation by: David Longanecker President, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) A Perfect Situation for Widening Participation and Success But Is It A Perfect Storm or Perfect Opportunity? The Perfect Storm: Three Converging Waves Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be Competitive Wave Three: What We Have in Resources The Liberal Borrowings Knocking on the College Door (WICHE) Beyond Social Justice (WICHE) National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) : www.higheredinfo.org. State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO), SHEF Report, February 2010. The Converging Waves Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be Competitive Wave Three: What We Have in Resources Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength $30,000 High Income, Low Educational Attainment High Income, High Educational Attainment CT State New Economy Index (2002) Top Tier Personal Income Per Capita, 2000 Middle Tier NJ Low Tier MA MD $25,000 NH VA DE CA AK NV FL OH IN $20,000 TN SC AL KY WV AR OK LA MI US WI GA OR PA NC AZ MO IA ME TX WY ID SD NM 15% 20% NY MN WA HI RI VT KS NE UT ND MS Low Income, Low Educational Attainment $15,000 IL CO 25% MT Low Income, High Educational Attainment 30% 35% Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Source: NCHEMS 40% Massachusetts Connecticut Maryland New Jersey Colorado Virginia Vermont New Hampshire New York Minnesota Rhode Island Illinois Washington Hawaii Kansas California Nebraska North Dakota Oregon Utah Pennsylvania Georgia Maine Montana Wisconsin Delaware Florida South Dakota North Carolina Iowa Missouri Michigan Alaska Texas Ohio Arizona Idaho New Mexico South Carolina Wyoming Oklahoma Indiana Tennessee Alabama Nevada Kentucky Louisiana Arkansas Mississippi West Virginia 40 35 30 25 20 41.3 45 37.4 37.4 37.0 36.5 35.9 35.4 34.5 34.4 33.6 32.7 32.2 31.7 31.3 31.1 30.7 30.3 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.6 24.6 24.3 24.2 23.9 23.5 23.0 22.1 21.7 21.6 20.7 20.2 19.0 Percent of Population Ages 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 15 10 5 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey. Via NCHEMS North Dakota Hawaii Wyoming Iowa South Dakota Minnesota Nebraska Washington New Hampshire Maine Wisconsin Utah Florida Idaho Vermont North Carolina New York Alaska Michigan South Carolina Delaware Oregon Rhode Island Pennsylvania Arizona Montana Kansas Ohio Mississippi Connecticut Indiana Massachusetts Colorado Illinois New Mexico California Nevada Alabama Oklahoma Missouri Virginia West Virginia Kentucky Maryland Georgia New Jersey Texas Arkansas Tennessee Louisiana 10 8 6 5.1 12 11.9 11.3 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.5 10.3 10.3 10.2 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.3 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.5 14.2 Percent of Population Ages 25-64 with an Associate Degree 16 14 4 2 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey. Via NCHEMS States Per Capita Income, 2007 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Via NCHEMS Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007 Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S., 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS The White Caps on the First Wave We’ve Been A Leader But Slip-Sliding Away Losing Ground: Mixed Bag Nationally Falling Internationally And One Size Doesn’t Fit All Really Two Stories – The Haves & the Have Nots And the Perverse Public Policy Response Question the data Fight for Immigration Reform (Less and More) The Converging Waves Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be Competitive Wave Three: What We Have in Resources WICHE Projections of High School Grads Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008. WICHE Projections of High School Grads Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008. High School Graduation Rates - Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2006 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS College-Going Rates – First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2006 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS Difference in Education Attainment Between Whites and Hispanics (2006, Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File. Via NCHEMS Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/ Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census), Via NCHEMS Patterns of U.S. High School and College Participation and Completion by Age (Average Annual from 2005 to 2007) 100% Not Much Happens After the Age of 24 80% High School Participation Earn High School Diploma or Equivalent – Levels off at Age 21 We are left with 13 percent of adults with no high school diploma, and 60 percent with no college degree. 60% Undergraduate College Participation – Peaks at Age 19, Levels off at Age 30 40% Complete Undergraduate College Degree – Peaks and Levels off at Age 31 20% 0% 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Note: Includes associate and bachelor’s degrees, but not certificates. AGE Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-07 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample) The White Caps on the Second Wave Those with whom we have succeeded are declining Those with whom we have not succeeded are increasing “Average” won’t sustain us, and may not even be achievable And, And One Size Doesn’t Fit All Really Two Stories – The Haves & the Have Nots The White Caps on the Second Wave And the Perverse Public Policy Response Mission Creep More focus on research More focus on the highest achieving Merit aid (institutional and state policy) Enrolment caps, allowing creaming Challenges to affirmative action Relative comfort with the status quo Including whining – it’s all their fault Students for not being white States for not being supportive Feds for not willing to give lots with nothing in return The Converging Waves Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be Competitive Wave Three: What We Have in Resources Source: SHEEO, SHEF 2008 Educational appropriations per FTE (constant $) Net tuition revenue per FTE (constant $) 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 4 $7,044 $7,003 $6,760 $6,438 $6,533 $6,994 $7,544 $7,819 $7,814 $7,744 $7,558 $7,341 $7,109 $7,028 $6,801 $6,720 $6,975 $7,397 $7,608 $7,653 $7,767 $7,771 $7,635 $7,269 $6,517 $12,000 10 $10,000 $3,993 $3,936 $3,839 $3,673 $3,468 $3,302 $3,233 $3,223 $3,245 $3,335 $3,337 $3,325 $3,293 $3,181 $3,098 $2,997 $2,824 $2,617 $2,536 $2,480 $2,367 $2,304 $2,210 $2,113 $1,986 $6,477 8 $6,477 12 $8,000 6 $6,000 Public FTE enrollment (millions) $4,000 2 $2,000 0 $0 Dollars per FTE 1983 Public FTE Enrollment Life could have been worse Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1983-2008 Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public Research Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public Masters and Baccalaureate Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public 2-Year Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016 Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009 Via NCHEMS The White Caps on the Third Wave Prospects look bleak for much more in the short term New Normal suggests a very different future than past. Triage often sacrifices the most vulnerable The White Caps on the Third Wave q And the Perverse Public Policy Response A stimulus package that discouraged innovation and change q A funding structure that inadequately supports equity oriented institutions q Mission creep, which reduces teaching productivity q A few cuts in need-based aid (Illinois) q Tax cuts q The U.S. story – Three Huge Converging Waves Demographics present a challenge, all else being equal The finances are perilous We have been educationally competitive, which has made us economically competitive and comparative just, but: Were slipping And the good life has not been equitably distribute Public Policy inconsistent with the times or their needs The Colorado Story – Three Real Opportunities Opportunity One: Our Economic Competitiveness Opportunity Two: Our Changing Demographics Opportunity Three: Our Revenue Base The Colorado Story – Three Real Opportunities Opportunity One: Our Economic Competitiveness We remain the wealthiest country in the World. We have “the financial capacity” v Some Positive Policy Trends v v Benchmarking to Global Indexes The Colorado Story – Three Real Opportunities Opportunity Two: Our Changing Demographics We start from a reasonably successful base, over all Improvements in serving students of color, particularly Hispanic students, will reap huge benefits The Colorado Story – Three Real Opportunities Opportunity Two: Our Changing Demographics v Positive Policy Trends v Pay for Outcomes v v v Evidence based Many focused on reducing the Gaps Renewed focus on smart need-based student financial aid v v Preservation New Initiatives Less is More in the Curriculum v Reinvention of Remediation (CAT) v Broader adoption of the Equity Scorecard v Federal Initiatives – SAFRA & AGI v The Colorado Story – Three Real Opportunities Opportunity Two: Our Changing Demographics v Positive Policy Trends For Adult Students v More flexible financing v v v v v Amnesty Payment plans Tailored financial aid (Arkansas) Concierge Service The Colorado Story – Three Real Opportunities Opportunity Three: Our revenue base Seems Dire v And Is Daunting v But reason for optimism v v Room for improvement in productivity Productivity: Total Funding per Degree/Certificate (Weighted*, 2006-2007) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 29,075 30,619 33,273 33,756 34,330 34,594 36,498 37,823 38,364 38,365 39,516 39,516 39,918 42,177 42,198 42,408 42,693 42,847 42,873 42,948 43,820 44,272 44,371 45,833 45,904 46,522 46,880 47,453 47,672 47,749 48,611 49,894 52,491 52,572 52,888 53,535 54,553 56,090 56,280 56,888 56,960 59,420 59,465 63,822 64,934 65,975 66,623 72,846 75,744 79,794 86,009 100,000 Tuition and Fees State and Local 20,000 10,000 - Alaska Wyoming Delaware Rhode Island Connecticut Hawaii Massachusetts New Jersey Vermont Maryland Nevada New York Alabama Pennsylvania Maine California New Mexico Tennessee Michigan North Carolina South Carolina Texas Nebraska Indiana Ohio Nation Missouri Virginia Iowa Kentucky Oregon Minnesota Arkansas Arizona Mississippi Illinois New Hampshire Idaho Wisconsin Louisiana Georgia Kansas South Dakota Montana West Virginia Oklahoma North Dakota Utah Washington Colorado Florida *Adjusted for value of degrees in the state employment market (median earnings by degree type and level) Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples) The Colorado Story – Three Real Opportunities Opportunity Three: Our revenue base Seems Dire v And Is Daunting v But reason for optimism v Room for improvement in productivity v Capacity in many states v State Tax Capacity & Effort Indexed to U.S. Average State Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita) 1.7 DE 1.6 1.5 1.4 CT NJ 1.3 MA AK 1.2 NH 1.1 1.0 WY MD VA CO NV IL WA NY MN CA USNE PA SD 0.9 TN 0.8 RI WI NC KS GA HI MOFL IN IA OH VT OR TX AZ ND MI UT KY SC ID NM LA AL OK WV MT AR 0.7 ME MS 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate) Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) 1.2 1.4 The Colorado Story – Three Real Opportunities Opportunity Three: Our revenue base Seems Dire v And Is Daunting v But reason for optimism v Room for improvement in productivity v Capacity in many states v And only way to progress is to embrace the equity agenda – Beyond Social Justice v The Colorado Story – Three Real Opportunities Opportunity One: Our Economic Competitiveness Opportunity Two: Our Changing Demographics We start from a reasonably successful base, over all Improvements in serving Hispanic students will reap huge benefits Opportunity Three: Our Revenue Base q Productivity enhancements will be key to equity enhancements q Many States & Feds have the capacity if it can develop the Will q Feds will need to target funding to help those at capacity today. The Colorado Story – Three Real Opportunities Enough Already