Target Market Study Tanzania Solar PV & Wind Power German Energy Desk Nairobi, July 2013 Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 1. 8 Overview about the power sector in Tanzania 1.1. Energy mix 1.2. Development of electric power supply and demand 1.3. Role of renewable energies 1.4. Power tariffs 1.5. Power sector structure 2. 8 9 10 10 11 Regulatory framework for solar PV & wind 12 2.1. Feed-in-tariff-Scheme (FIT) 2.2. Power Purchase Agreement 3. 4. 12 14 Status of the solar and wind energy sector 15 3.1. Overview about solar and wind Sector 3.2. Status of solar PV 3.3. Status of wind power 3.4. International cooperation projects 15 17 25 26 Market potential and planned projects 28 4.1. Overall sector outlook 4.2. Planned projects 4.3. Undeveloped market opportunities 4.3.1. Real estate/ Construction 4.3.2. Telecommunications 4.3.3. Mining 4.3.4. Agriculture 4.3.5. Tourism 4.3.6. Manufacturing sector 28 30 34 35 36 39 44 45 46 5. Engagement and positioning of German companies 50 6. Key market players 56 7. Annexes 58 2 Executive Summary The United Republic of Tanzania is an East African country formed following the union of Zanzibar and Tanganyika in the early 1960‟s. It has made significant progress over the past two decades to achieve and maintain macroeconomic stability, becoming one of the best economic performers in Sub-Saharan Africa. With a peak grid capacity of 1438 MW, the country‟s main grid electric supply is limited to main towns such as Dar, Mwanza, Arusha and Morogoro. Only about 18.4 per cent of the population has access to grid electricity. A growing portion of the off-grid population obtains access through stand-alone solar photovoltaics and mini-grids, and this is encouraged by Government policy. Although Tanesco electricity prices are currently too low (<USD 0.13) to encourage investment in on-grid PV, the Government has developed Standardized Power Purchase Agreements to encourage renewables on-grid and in isolated mini-grids. Favourable policy developments, support schemes and rapid reduction of costs are creating a healthy market for solar PV in off-grid locations. Cumulative installed capacity of solar PV in Tanzania is estimated to have increased from 100kWp in 2005 to over 5 MWp in 2012. Most of the solar PV capacity is in rural electrification and donor-funded projects (SHS, institutional, etc.). As well, MW-scale projects are either under discussion or in the development pipeline that could dramatically change the market profile. The market sectors can be divided into 4 groups as explained in the table below: Table 1: Overview about market segments Segment Off-grid Pico & SHS Off-grid Professional & Project Market Grid connect (small & medium scale) Utility-scale power generation (>100 kW) Brief description Sales of kit-type products (usually below 100Wp), “over-the-counter”, unregulated. Systems designed according specific needs of off-grid facilities or off-grid electrification programs. It can include “clustered” SHS programmes or larger systems (solar PV and hybrid systems). Systems designed for the specific needs of gridconnected facilities. It can include power generation for direct consumption (embedded generation) or grid-interactive systems (e.g. under net-metering or energy banking arrangements). Power generation sold to main utility or other decentralized utilities. It includes Small Power Projects under the SPPA or larger projects with Tanesco negotiated tariffs. Current status Largest portion of market. REA subsidy offered. Comments Competitive. Dominated by Chinese products. Estimated to be over 1 MWp p.a. Active market. Driven by donors, NGOs or government procurement. Small applications in commercial and industrial sector (e.g. tourism, telecoms, etc.) ± 1 MWp of installations in 2012. Potential to develop based on policy environment. Highly sensitive to Tanesco electricity tariffs. Pilot projects likely to occur in 2014. Several projects in MoE pipeline, all of them to connect to mini-grids under the SPPA. Risky investment climate (creditworthiness of Tanesco) Solar home systems and pico PV markets are essentially “over-the-counter” with a prevailing low-price, low-quality and un-designed environment. The “professional” market offers numerous opportunities for players with good connections with NGOs, Government and donor organizations. The grid-connect market is in extremely early stages but bears watching as it will follow Kenya and South Africa and grow rapidly at some point in the next 10 years. 3 Wind Wind regimes are roughly similar to Kenya, with high wind resources focused in the Rift Valley and along the coast. However, there are fewer companies and NGOs involved in off-grid small-scale developments (and local manufacturing). Large-scale utility scale projects (150MW) are in planning stages but have been slow to move forward primarily because of a lack of confidence by investors in long-term payment from the utility. The wind sector in Tanzania is in extremely early stages of development. It is likely to follow the solar PV sector and follow Kenya‟s wind market trajectory. Large scale generation projects suffer from a low credit rating of the overall electricity sector. Off-grid wind projects suffer from a lack of competent companies, extremely high project costs, and a lack of available equipment. Solar PV Potential Markets Tanzania‟s low electrification rates, high electricity costs and poor utility performance will support continued development of off-grid solar segments. The pico and solar home system market will continue to grow, but be exploited by Asian low quality suppliers. Professional markets will grow with investment by telecom, tourism and off-grid business increasingly looking to solar to reduce diesel generator costs as well as Government and NGO stand-alone PV system projects that continue to be offered on a project by project basis. Isolated grids will provide an increasingly interesting entry point for a wide range of grid-connect systems (i.e. 100 kWp to 10 MW). On-Grid markets will grow in the medium to long term with mining, commercial manufacture and the “green building” sector as prime movers. Recommendations for German RE enterprises Although Kenya is seen as a “hub” of business in East Africa, Tanzania has some advantages that make it an attractive long-term location for the development of business. First, it has a stable political climate and has enjoyed continued economic growth for over a decade. Secondly, it has had long traditional ties with Germany. Thirdly, the large offgrid areas make solar PV attractive in more economically-active areas than in Kenya --both in stand-alone systems and as part of mini- and micro-grids. Finally, the PV market in Tanzania is much less congested than the Kenya market; it would be easier for a company to gain part of the market than in the competitive Kenya market. 1. The professional off-grid sector will grow considerably in the foreseeable future, with Government/NGO/done procurements and commercial systems for the private sector in the telecom, tourism, agriculture and off-grid productive sectors as drivers. German players with strengths in off-grid PV, inverter, battery and BOS equipment delivery --and designers, consultants, program managers --- should position themselves to collaborate with local providers or NGOs in this market. 2. The grid connect sector will grow along three lines: a) Development of off-grid isolated mini-grids stimulated by multi-lateral and bilateral projects (and strong incentives for these), b) small and medium scale household, building-integrated, commercial and agricultural sector grid connect projects that are based on netmetering, embedded power, and aspirational desire for green power and c) Longerterm Government-driven initiatives to build large (>10 MW) solar farms in strategic areas based on feed-in tariffs and other incentives. German players should identify partners (developers, consultants, architects, financiers) who can help them position themselves to gain entry to these markets. 4 List of Acronyms DFID Department for International Development (British) EAC East African Community EWURA Energy Water Utility Regulatory Authority FIT Feed in Tariff GDP Gross Domestic Product GSMA Global Association of Mobile Phone Operators HFO Heavy Fuel Oil LED Light Emitting Diode MNOs Mobile Network Operators MW Megawatt PSMP Power Sector Master Plan REA Rural Energy Agency REMP Rural Electrification Master Plan REFIT Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff RETAP Renewable Energy Technical Assistance Program (Kenya Association of Manufacturers) SHS Solar Home System SSMP Sustainable Solar Market Package SPPA Standardized Power Purchase Agreements SREP Scaling Renewable Energy Program TANESCO Tanzania Electric Company TAREA Tanzania Renewable Energy Association TATEDO Tanzania Traditional Energy Organization TEDAP Tanzania Energy Development and Access Project USAID United States Agency for International Development Currency Tanzania Shilling Exchange Rates June 2013 TShs 1638 = 1 US$ 5 List of Tables Table 1: Overview about market segments Table 2: Energy mix Table 3: Power capacity Table 4: Power tariffs Table 5: Independent power producers Table 6: Calculations for feed-in-tariffs (FIT), main-grid Table 7: Seasonal standardized FIT (main-grid) Table 8: Calculation for FIT, mini-grids Table 9: Application process for the Feed-in Tariff Table 10: Main market segments of the solar PV market in Tanzania Table 11: Selected professional off-grid Projects, completed or underway Table 12: Selected players and distribution channels for the off-grid professional/project market Table 13: Mini-grid projects Table 14: Obstacles and constraints in the solar PV markets in Tanzania Table 15: International cooperation projects Table 16: Market development summary Table 17: Summary of planned projects (PSMP, SREP and KAM) Table 18: Dominant Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in Tanzania Table 19: Main players in the mining industry in Tanzania Table 20: Selection of anticipated major loads in mining industry of Tanzania Table 21: Tourism sector players and power supply Table 22: Manufacturing sector players in Tanzania Table 23: Summary of underdeveloped market opportunities Table 24: German companies with engagement in Tanzania Table 25: Sources for financing solar PV and wind projects Table 26: Recommended procedure (export credit financing) Table 27: German cover policy for Tanzania 6 List of Figures Figure 1: Primary energy consumption Figure 2: Electric power mix Figure 3: Existing grid system and plants Figure 4: Sectorial breakdown of GDP, 2011 provisional figures, Bank of Tanzania 2012 Figure 5: Sites by power solution deployed (on-grid) Figure 6: Sites by power solution deployed (off-grid) List of Boxes Box 1: Energy enterprise TRC phone charging Box 2: Business model MobiSol Box 3: Scaling-up renewable Energy Programme Box 4: KAM Regional Technical Assistance Programme (RTAP) 7 1. Overview about the power sector in Tanzania The United Republic of Tanzania is an East African country formed following the union of Zanzibar and Tanganyika in the early 1960‟s. It is a member of both the Southern Africa Development Community and the East African Community (the EAC maintains its headquarters in Arusha). Tanzania envisions transforming itself into a newly-industrializing, middle-income country by 2025, with a globally competitive and prosperous economy and high quality of life in a clean and secure environment. Tanzania has made significant progress over the past two decades to achieve and maintain macroeconomic stability, becoming one of the best economic performers in SubSaharan Africa. According to Bank of Tanzania, economic growth has been about 7 per cent since 2000, and the annual GDP per capita was about- US$560 in 2011. Sound macroeconomic policies, market-oriented reforms, and debt relief have ensured a positive environment for Tanzania‟s steady economic growth. 1.1 Energy mix The overall energy supply is mainly based on the use of biomass, which has a share of 76% at the primary energy consumption. Figure 1: Primary energy consumption, 2009 Oil; Natural Coal; 9,20% Gas; 0,10% 0,40% Figure 2: Electric Power Mix (% of installed capacities), 2012 Electricit y; 1,80% Hydro 36% Biomas s 2% Biomass, waste; 88,60% Imports 1% Oil 29% Gas 32% The current electricity generation capacities amount to 1564 MW (03/2013), of which 61% are thermal power plants, which includes rental/ emergency power plants of 205 MW, running on diesel. Hydro power plays the second role (36%). Table 2: Energy mix Technology Hydropower Small Hydro <10 MW Oil (jet A-1, diesel) Gas Installed capacity (in MW), total 553,0 12,8 456,3 501,0 TANESCO IPP EPP 553,0 8,8 88,3 252,0 SPP 4,0 163,0 249,0 205,0 Biomass 27,0 8 Import TOTAL 14,0 1564,1 14,0 916 412 205 31 Peak demand is around 828 MW (2011). The typical load pattern displays a fairly constant load during day with an evening peak between 1.2. Development of electric power supply and demand An energy demand forecast was conducted in the context of the Power Supply Master Plan (update 2012). According to that plan, the electricity demand will grow by 11,9% p.a (low growth scenario) up to 15,3% p.a. (high growth scenario) until 2030. This means, that the current electricity production has to be increased from 5.653 GWh to 47.724 GWh until 2035 (reference scenario, 6,6% p.a. over 14 years). In case of high economic growth (7,8% p.a. over 14 years), the power production has to be around 53.000 GWh. For meeting such a demand, generation capacities have to be expanded to more than 6.700 MW by 2035 (> 2780 MW by 2015/2016). The drivers of the rising power demand are as follows: Economic growth: around 6,6% p.a. (over a period of 14 years) Additional major loads which will coming up between 2013 - 2019, e.g. nickel mines with a load of 72 MW in total, new gold mines with a load of 90 MW (2 nickel mines and 1 Uranium mine), an iron smelter with a load of 100 MW, a textile mill in Shinyanga (39 MW), a fertilizer factory in Mtwara (30 MW) and the extension of Hong Yu Steel (34 MW) Further rural electrification: total electrification rate of 24% by 2015 and 78% by 2035 (current level: 15%), involving connection of 250.000 new customers per annum starting 2013 to 2017. Remaining 6 regions (Ruvuma Kigoma, Kagera, Rukwa, Lindi and Mtwara) are expected to be connected to the main grid by 2019 The system losses currently amount ot 25%, i.e. 5,3% in the transmission grid and 19,7% in the distribution net. The target for loss reduction is to achieve a level of 15,8% by 2035. The suppressed demand, which is reflected by power cuts and load shedding, is estimated to be around 2,1%, i.e. almost 100 GWh. Additional 8990 MW shall be installed by 2035 (main grid connected) to meet the increasing demand and to replace generation units that will be retired. The majority of capacity additions are expected to be large hydropower and coal: Table 3: Power capacity Technology Hydro Gas-fired plants Coal Wind Solar Biomass/ Cogen Total Installed capacity (in MW) 3304 995 in % 36,8 3800 120 100 40 8990 9 1.3. Role of renewable energies In consideration of the whole scope of renewable energies, they play a crucial role in the energy mix in Tanzania. The high share of hydropower (nearly 40%) at the power mix makes the energy supply very sensitive to the water availability in the seasons; in addition to that the price for the diesel, with which the emergency power plants are run, for instance, during dry seasons, increased a lot and makes the power generation more expensive. According to a the SREP Investment Plan Tanzania (2013), large hydro-power, natural gas and geothermal power plants have the lowest levelized electricity generation costs (46 UScent/ kWh). Coal is comparable. This explains, why hydro, natural gas and coal are supposed to be the main pillars of the grid-connected power supply in future. Presently about 4,9% of total generation capacity in Tanzania is from renewable energy, including captive generation in sugar, tannin and sisal factories, solar, small hydro plants, but excluding large hydro. The GoT has the goal to increase the share of renewable energy (excluding large Hydro) in the electricity mix to 14% by 2015. Solar PV and Wind do not (yet) play a big role despite huge potentials. The levelized costs of wind and solar PV are around 11 UScent and 9-10 UScent, which is competitive especially with regard to power generation from diesel (30-32 UScent/ kWh). These costs are for larger-sized grid-connected facilities. According to the Power System Master Plan (2012), 120 MW (2x60 MW) Solar PV and 100 MW Wind (2x50 MW) shall be installed between 2016-1018. In context of rural electrification, Solar PV and Wind can play a crucial role in areas where connection to the main grid would is not economically viable. According to the latest SREP report (04/2013), 14,9 Mio. people are far from the grid and, in addition, have a low density (<125 habitants/km2). These are 33% of the overall Tanzanian population. The number of households in such remote areas with low population density is estimated to be 3 Mio. They are best served through stand-alone systems, as mini-grids would imply too high costs in consideration of the low density. According to the Rural Electrification prospectus study, 52% of the overall population may best be served using minigrids and off-grid solutions: 20% renewable minigrids and 32 stand-alone Solar PV. If there is not the option of small hydropower or biomass power plants, Solar PV-BatteryDiesel hybrid solutions are the most cost-effective solution for minigrids. The economic levelized costs of electricity amount to 0,53 UScent/ kWh, compared to 0,59 UScent/ kWh for diesel generator and 0,71 USCent for a Solar PV system with battery. 1.4. Power tariffs By principle, power tariffs shall be cost-reflective. But the current TANESCO electricity prices are too low, being about 0.13 USD/kWh for residential and small commercial sectors and as low as 0.07 USD/kWh for larger consumers: Table 4: Power tariffs Category of consumer Domestic Low Usage (D1) Social tariff General Usage (T1) Low Voltage Max (T2) High Voltage Max (T3) Residential, small commercial and light industrial 3-phase, demand below 500 kVA Power metered at 11 kV and above 10 Low Energy (0-50kWh) per kWh 60 High energy charge (above 50kWh) per kWh 273 Service Charge per Month 3,841 Demand Charge per KVA 14,233 14,233 16,944 14,520 Energy Charge per kWh 221 132 118 Energy Charge per kWh (in USD) 0.13 0.08 0.07 Tanesco tariffs are set for review 20131. 1.5. Power sector structure The energy sector in Tanzania comprises of various stakeholders, including national institutions, private sector operators, and non-governmental organization. One of the most important features is, that the major part of power generation and the operation of the transmission & distribution grid is not unbundled, the power supplier TANESCO is vertically integrated. Following chart shows the landscape of players: Ministry of Energy and Minerals (MEM): mandate to develop energy and mineral resources and to manage the sector. It is responsible for formulation and articulation of policies to create an enabling environment for stakeholders. Promoting renewable energies is part of the MEM mandate. Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (EWURA): Autonomous multi-sectoral regulatory authority which is responsible for technical and economic regulation of electricity, petroleum, natural gas and water sectors in Tanzania. Tasks of EWURA comprise the regulation of power retail tariffs, awarding provisional and permanent licenses as well as monitoring and enforcement activities. Tanzania Electric Supply Company (TANESCO): principal electricity generator, transmitter and distributor which provides nearly 60% of the effective generating capacity of the national grid. TANESCO is a public company. Rural Energy Agency (REA): Autonomous body under the MEM to promote and facilitate improved access to modern energy services in rural areas of Mainland Tanzania. Through the Rural Energy Fund (REF), which gets its financial resources from a surcharge on grid electricity sales as well as from Development Partners, REA co-finances rural and renewable energy electrification schemes, implemented by TANESCO and the private 1 Though there are political forces that work to prevent increases. 11 sector. REA is also preparing the Rural Electrification Investment Prospectus, which for the first time is taking a least cost rural electrification planning approach that integrates grid and off-grid electrification options as well as renewable energy sources. Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and Emergency Power Producers (EPPs): Private investors in the power sector contribute by 40% to the installed capacities. Current players comprise Symbion-Ubongo, IPTL, Symbion Arusha, Songas, Aggreko and Symbion Dadoma: Table 5: Independent power producers Plant Installed capacity (in MW), total Songas 1 Songas 2 Songas 3 Tegeta IPTL Symbion Ubongo 42 120 40 103 120 Aggreko Ubongo Aggreko Tegeta Symbion Dodoma Symbion Arusha 50 50 55 50 Fuel IPP Gas Gas Gas HFO Gas/ Jet A1 Diesel Diesel HFO HFO EPP x x x x X X X X X Small Power Producers (SPP): A number of private companies are engaged in small renewable power development under SSPA to sell power to TANESCO and/ or sell directly to retail customers. Many of these firms are already in rural areas in other business such as tea, sugar, sisal, tannin etc. 2 plants, TPC and TANWAT, are run on basis of biomass and sell the power to the grid (19,7 MW in total). The 4 MW hydropower plant Mwanga is supplying power to the nearby rural villages with excess being sold to TANESCO. Within this year, a consultant will be appointed to review the power sector structure. According to EWURA, private investors shall play a crucial role, but there will probably be a shift from single IPPs towards more PPP, e.g. concessions. That means, that private investors shall be mobilized through tenders, so that the Feed-in tariff will be set on basis of a competitive bidding. EWURA expects to have benchmarks by this way and to find proper price levels for certain technologies. Despite this shift, there will be room for IPPs. 2. Regulatory framework for solar PV & wind power 2.1. Feed-in tariff-scheme (FIT) Since 2008, there is a feed-in-tariff scheme in place for small power producers (100 KW up to 10 MW). Above that size, the FIT is negotiable. The Feed-in-tariffs for small power producers are adjusted annually by EWURA and are based on the avoided cost of the electricity. That means that they are undifferentiated by renewable energy technologies and that there is no guaranteed price over the long term even if a PPA is signed for 15 years period. Within the standardized FIT scheme, there are tariffs for feeding in the main grid and in isolated mini-grids. The tariffs for feeding in the main grid are calculated as follows: 12 Table 6: Calculations for feed-in-tariffs (FIT), main grid Cost Position Long-Run Marginal Costs (LRMC), as defined by the Power system A B C D E Master Plan 2009, + average tax for generation investments + average tax on fuel Converting into TZS (based on average selling price of USD for 1 year) Sub-Total Average Generation Costs of the existing generation system Forecast Thermal Generation to TANESCO Grid x forecast costs of thermal generation on grid (capacity charges of TANESCO own capacities and of IPP & EPP charges + fuel and variable O&M for all plants) Sub-Total Average generation costs/ avoided cost of generation (average of A and B) Adjustment for avoided transmission losses (5,2%) Standardised Small Power Purchase Tariff 2012 Average of 3 years (2012, 2011, 2011) In 2012 7,90 USCent Ca. 30% Ca. 19% 150,18 TZS/ kWh 214,54 TZS/ kWh 182,36 TZS/ kWh 192,37 TZS/ kWh 152,54 TZS/ kWh (9,3 USCent) Source: based on EWURA, Detailed Tariff Calculations for Year 2012 for the Sale of Electricity to the Main grid in Tanzania under Standardized Small Power Purchase Agreement, February 2012 For balancing the higher generation costs in dry seasons, when hydropower is not so much available as in wet seasons and thermal power plants (in particular EPPs) have to generate more expensive power, the standardized FIE is differentiated according to the season: Table 7: Seasonal standardised FIT (main grid) Standardised Small Power Purchase Tariff In 2012, TZS/ kWh Average tariff Dry season (August – November) Wet season (January – July, December) 152,54 (9,3 UScent) 183,05 137,29 For the next 10 years, the avoided cost of the interconnected system will be driven by thermal plants. The planned development of thermal power plants using natural gas priced at extraction cost plus fee and not at the international price makes uncertain that the avoided cost of the grid and, thus, the feed-in-tariff will remain above the levelised generation cost of renewable energy technologies such as Solar PV and wind. However, to mitigate this risk, there is a floor price which limits downwards variation of the FIT. For instance, for all SPPs executed in 2012, the floor price shall be 152,54 TZS (183,05 in dry season; 137,29 TZH wet season). If the avoided costs fall below that price, the floor tariff shall be paid to the small power producer. The Feed-in-tariffs for mini-grids are higher. They are also calculated on basis of the avoided costs, i.e. the average of LRMC (as defined in the PSMP 2009) and the incremental costs in mini-grids: 13 Table 8: Calculation for FIT, mini-grids Cost Position Long-Run Marginal Costs (LRMC), as defined by the Power system A Master Plan 2009, + average tax for generation investments + average tax on fuel Converting into TZS (based on average selling price of USD for 1 year) Sub-Total + Adjustment for avoided transmission losses (5,2%) Average incremental costs in mini-grids Incremental capacity cost of mini-grids + Incremental costs for fuel, lubrication and maintenance Sub-Total B C E Standardised Small Power Purchase Tariff 2012 Average of B and C In 2012 7,90 USCent Ca. 30% Ca. 19% 150,18 TZS/ kWh 192,37 TZS/ kWh 42,11 TZS/ kWh 726,53 TZS/ kWh 768,64 TZS/ kWh 480,50 TZS/ kWh (29,4 UScent) Source: based on EWURA, Detailed Tariff Calculations for Year 2012 for the Sale of Electricity to Mini-grids in Tanzania under Standardized Small Power Purchase Agreement, February 2012 The table shows, that the tariff for mini-grids is more than triple. While the tariff for maingrid should by not be enough for promoting Solar PV, the tariff for mini-grids is attractive enough, even for Solar PV. Actually the FIT scheme is under review. In this context, the key features such as size threshold of 10 MW, the tariff calculation methodology (on basis of avoided costs), the technology-neutrality and others are discussed. According to the MEM feed-in tariffs will probably be differentiated according to technologies, as many stakeholders push into that direction. 2.2. Power purchase agreement For reducing the transaction costs associated with negotiating and signing a PPA, a standardized PPA has been introduced for projects up to 10 MW. This standardized PPA is technology-neutral. It incorporates the following features: “must-take” contract: All energy supplied by the SPP developer to the Distribution Network Operator (DNO) will be purchased by the DNO subject only to such necessary directions and protocols as may be issued by the DNO for the protection of its electric system The Standardized power Purchase tariff, announced each year, is based on the DNO‟s avoided costs The floor tariff over the term is 100% of the tariff in the year in which the SPPA is signed The tariff is capped at 150% of the tariff in the year in which the SPPA is signed The SPP shall design, purchase, construct, operate and maintain the seller-owned interconnection facilities (including upgrading of metering at the grid substation to monitor bi-directional real and reactive power) Step-in rights The SPPA has a term of 15 years 14 What is missing in the SPPA, is a take-or-pay clause that provides a compensation to the Small Power Producer, should the grid experience a situation that prevents the off-taking of the generated power. This affects, of course, significantly the bankability of SPPAs, especially as the grid suffers a lot from outages. Following table shows the application process for the Feed-in Tariff: Table 9: Application process for the feed-in-tariff Milestone Securing land and RE resource access Application for Letter of Intent Issuing letter of Intent Business registration Performing feasibility study Approving technical assistance grant Applying for permit of construction, environmental and social clearance Generation license application Issuing the generation license Application for interconnection & sale of electricity SPPA contract Responsibility Project sponsor Project sponsor Grid operator Project sponsor Project sponsor REA Project sponsor Project sponsor EWURA Project sponsor Project sponsor/ Grid operator Closure of project financing Project sponsor/ Partner Bank (REA/ Worldbank) Source: EWURA, Guidelines for Development of Small power Projects, March 2011 3. Status of the solar and wind energy sectors 3.1.Brief solar and wind sector overview Favourable policy developments, support schemes and rapid reduction of costs are creating a healthy market for solar PV in off-grid locations. Cumulative installed capacity of solar PV installed in Tanzania is estimated to have increased from 100kWp in 2005 to over 5 MWp in 20122. Sales of solar energy were estimated at 2MWp in 2011 (Camco). Sales in 2012 and 2013 are thought to be higher due to large project initiatives and continued solar home system demand. TAREA is currently updating market research to determine the size of the market3. Most of the solar PV capacity installed is in rural electrification and donor-funded projects (SHS, institutional, etc.). This market is likely to continue to increase because (unlike Kenya), there are large economically-active and heavily populated parts of the country that will not be connected to the grid in the near future. This also provides opportunities for mini-grids, based on renewable energies. As well, MW-scale projects are either under discussion or in the development pipeline that could dramatically change the market profile for solar energy in Tanzania. A number of investors and solar entrepreneurs are seeking to develop solar farms that take advantage of Tanzania‟s Feed In Tariffs and stable political climate. However, there 2 No agency has kept close track of solar sales, but rapid increases in the off-grid and NGO market have been observed. 3 Leading solar energy companies were unwilling to provide full sales data to team 15 are significant investment hurdles. Potential investors want to sell PV electricity generated at 20 USDc/kWh; TANESCO currently sells electricity at below 13 USDc/kWh. Investors prefer to negotiate terms in US dollars (as opposed to the current Tanzania shillings offered). A final challenge is that of competition with grid extension4. Investors would also need guarantees to ensure long-term payment for electricity as TANESCO is seen as a credit risk. The wind market has not had the same level of interest or development as Kenya has had in either off-grid or on-grid developments. Wind regimes are roughly similar to Kenya, with high wind resources focused in the Rift Valley and along the coast. However, there are fewer companies and NGOs involved in off-grid small-scale developments (and local manufacturing). Large-scale utility scale projects (150MW) are in planning stages but have been slow to move forward primarily because of a lack of confidence by investors in longterm payment from the utility. Pipeline utility scale projects are above 30MW so do not fall under Standardized Power Purchase Agreements but rather negotiate PPA‟s directly with Tanesco. (See section 1.2.2). As shown in the table below, the Tanzanian market can be divided into 4 major segments: Table 10: Main market segments of the solar PV market in Tanzania Segment Brief description Current status Comments Off-grid Pico & SHS Off-grid Professional & Project Market Grid connect (small & medium scale) Utility-scale power generation (IPP and SPP) Sales of kit-type products (usually below 100Wp), “over-the-counter”, unregulated. Systems designed according specific needs of off-grid facilities or off-grid electrification programs. It can include “clustered” SHS programmes or larger systems (solar PV and hybrid systems). Systems designed for the specific needs of gridconnected facilities. It can include power generation for direct consumption (embedded generation) or grid-interactive systems (e.g. under net-metering or energy banking arrangements). Power generation sold to main utility or other decentralized utilities. It includes Small Power Projects under the SPPA or larger projects with Tanesco negotiated tariffs. Largest portion of market. REA subsidy offered. Active market. Driven by donors, NGOs or government procurement. Small applications in commercial and industrial sector (e.g. tourism, telecoms, etc.) Potential to develop based on policy environment. Highly sensitive to Tanesco electricity tariffs. Several projects in MoE pipeline, all of them to connect to mini-grids under the SPPA. Competitive. Dominated by Chinese products. Estimated to be over 1 MWp p.a. ± 1 MWp of installations in 2012 (solar PV). Pilot projects likely to occur in 2014. Risky investment climate (creditworthiness of Tanesco) The market for wind energy technology can be segmented along the same categories as the solar PV market in 9. The more active segments are however the off-grid professional and project market---with a few projects in the kW scale from local companies as Windpower Serengeti and REDCOT---and utility-scale power generation from international consortia, notably the windparks currently being developed in Singida by Geo Windpower 4 The Tanzanian Government cannot assure investors that isolated mini-grids will remain isolated during the period of investment payback. 16 and Wind East Africa. More detailed information on the wind energy technology market is provided in section 3.2.2. 3.2. Status of solar PV The overall Tanzanian solar market is very similar to the Kenyan market. Since 2000, growth in off-grid markets has been strong due to rapid increases in consumer awareness and buying power, investments by suppliers as well as Government recognition of the role of solar PV in pre-electrification of the large, economically-active areas of the country that will not be immediately met by the grid. Grid-connect solar PV is actively discussed as a replacement for thermal power in remote mini-grids, but thus far no investments have occurred. Despite increasing levels of consumer and investor interest, small and large projects involving connection to the main grid are still in early stages of discussion. Off-grid pico & solar home systems As occurred in Kenya between 1995 and 2005, the Tanzania market went through rapid growth between 2008 and 2012. This was due to steady national economic growth, better pricing for Tanzanian agricultural products (tea, coffee, cashew nuts, etc.), increased awareness and continued slow electrification rates. As well, Government supported initiatives such as the 2002-2006 National PV projects did much to increase awareness about the potential of PV for off-grid household electrification and set up regional distribution networks. The market is largely an unregulated, competitive, “over-the-counter”, where equipment is purchased on a component basis from hardware shops, electrical stores and agents which have relatively strong supply chains. There is much complaint about sub-standard products and the domination of the sector by a few high volume players that do not conform to national regulations. Several established PV companies such as Ensol and Rex Solar Energy stated that they “got out of” the solar home system market and focused instead on the “project market” because of the highly competitive nature of the solar home system market and because of the lack of quality or margins in the sector. The off-grid commercial SHS and pico-solar market likely to be about 1 MWp per annum5. It has been increasing steadily since 2008. The major developments in recent years are a) increased prevalence of low-cost product from the Far East b) wider use of inverter-based system because of consumer demand for televisions and AC electrical goods and c) price competition due to larger number of players in the market: As happened in Kenya in the 1990‟s, the last 10 years have seen a large increase in retail outlets in small towns supplying solar equipment directly to consumers. One established wholesale company for SHS is ZARA SOLAR Ltd. Funds from social investors as well as the Government of Tanzania have allowed the company to build a name and provide quality components and service. They offer a wide range of SHS (from 15 to 260 Wp), have two main offices in Dar es Salaam and Mwanza and a well-developed network of trained technicians that can distribute and install products throughout the country. Pico-solar product demand has increased rapidly on several fronts, because of both donor support and increased product availability: 5 This figure is however not based on accurate data but rather opinions of experts. No accurate reports regarding sales of solar PV products exist to date. 17 Donor-supported initiatives that have supported quality products and subsidized social entrepreneurs in marketing of products6. Over-the-counter supply of low quality, low priced LED/PV kits from Asia with deep penetration into rural markets A success story worth mentioning is the case of SolarAid / SunnyMoney in Tanzania. This NGO transitioning to private company has sold over 150,000 in East Africa. More than 50,000 units were sold in 2012 in Tanzania alone through its on-going „Students Lights‟ campaign. The “Students Lights” campaign is an innovative distribution model that uses rural schools as distribution channels in rural Tanzania. Box 1: Energy enterprise TRC phone charging Only 30% of rural Africans are phone users, partly because of the problem to charge the phones. Very often they need to travel long distances. The entrepreneur Ruth Musenye invested in small solar panel systems for phone charging and lighting, obtaining 14 Watt panels from Zara solar in Mwanza at a cost of 300 USD. With help of the DEEP-Programme and respective training as well as coaching on developing the business plan, she diversified by adding 2 barber shops which operate with solar energy. In addition she scaled-up her mobile-phone charging business: Now she is serving more than 30 customers compared to 5-10/ day before. The Programme helped her to submit her application to SIDO (Small Industries development Organization), a government operated micro finance institution. Source: GVEP International, developing Energy Enterprises in East Africa, booklet 2012 The target group of this market segment are mainly people in remote areas, which are difficult to be reached. Thus, an important part of the supply chain are the so-called “energy entrepreneurs” who are trained and supported though several donor-funded proprammes. A prominent example is the programme “Developing energy enterprises in East Africa” (2008 2012), which was funded by the EU and the Danish Government. In framework of this programme, over 1000 micro and small energy enterprises (MSEE) have been supported to develop their business. 328 of them deliver Solar PV products and services, such as solar lighting and solar mobile phone charging. Many of them are in Tanzania. The small entrepreneurs got trainings on technologies, book-keeping, quality assurance and marketing. In addition, they were coached by a mentor on the development of their business plan. As a crucial component of the programme, a Loan Guarantee Fund was established, which made it possible for most of the entrepreneurs, who do not have suitable surety such as a land title and therefore cannot get credits, to get access to finance. Few German companies are active in this pico & SHS segment. They succeed especially because they do not only come with a product or solution, but also with a business model, such as the pay-as-you-use model of MobiSol. 6 Lighting Africa and the Rural Energy Agency supported over USD 1 million for small scale lighting projects in the Lighting Rural Tanzania project. SolarAid sold tens of thousands of pico-solar systems through its program that reached out to schools and subsidized the marketing of products. 18 Box 2: Business model MobiSol 19 employees, of which 4 are in the EA region, e.g. Arusha. Product: Smart system (20 Wp – 200 Wp), linked up to mobile net (in Tanzania Vodacom and Airtel) Business model: Customer pays via M-PESA a monthly fee, the system will be opened automatically for power supply to the customer; the systems are financed through micro-credits and can be paid back over a period of 3 years (12 USD/ month for 20 Wp; 40 USD for largest system); warranty is given for 3 years (for this period service for free) Partners: Kakute (Tanzania) In a test phase (2010-2012) around 300 units were installed in Nakuru region (Kenya) and in Aruha (Tanzania); the target for 2013 is to install 10.000 systems in Tanzania, Kenya and Ghana) Off-grid professional and project market Systems in this category are designed according to specific requirements of off-grid electrification programs or based on the specific needs of off-grid facilities (e.g. schools, hospitals or even tourism resorts). The key difference between this market and the “over the counter” SHS market is that companies in this field require higher engineering and project management skills. The market is not as price-sensitive as the SHS one and more importance is given to quality, performance and sustainability. This market is largely driven by donors, NGOs or Government procurement. There are however applications in the off-grid commercial and industrial sector (e.g. tourism, telecoms, etc.) where solar PV is usually combined with diesel generators (hybrid systems) to reduce the overall cost of energy. To date about 6 MWp of solar PV electricity has been installed countrywide for various applications in schools, hospitals, health centres, police posts, street lighting, telecommunication, small enterprises and households The Government of Tanzania provides 100% subsidies for the electrification of remote public facilities through Solar PV. In the first tranche of the so-called Sustainable Solar Market Package (SSMP) 300 public facilities have been electrified, around 300 kW in total. The second round is under preparation. The SSMP is a contracting mechanism that provides for the supply and installation of PV systems, along with a maintenance and repair contract in a defined area. PV systems, which are supposed to meet electricity needs in schools, clinics and other community facilities are bundled with requirements and incentives for commercial sale to households, businesses and other non-governmental customers. In addition to the 100% funding of the PV systems for the public facilities, grants are used to help household consumers defray the costs of SHS: They either obtain a loan from a partner microfinance institution or use pay-as-you-go technology to tie usage to payment, or they pay cash for the balance of the SHS payment. 19 1 SSMP is currently under implementation (status 04/2013) in Rukwa region to benefit 80 villages with electricity services to schools, dormitories, dispensaries, health clinics, police posts and street lighting as well as to 8000 households and other private customers. New packages are being prepared for 5 more regions: Beneficiary will be the population in 455 villages (with around 70.000 households). In addition, Millennium Challenge Corporation has financed an SSMP project in Kigoma Region to benefit the population of 25 villages. Besides the SSMP, the Lighting Rural Tanzania Grant Competition Programme (LRTCP) also aims at improving the access to modern energy services of households, businesses and public facilities. The Programme has been launched in 2010 and since them 2 competition rounds have been realized: The core instrument is to give awards to innovative proposals which have the objective to provide modern lighting systems to remote consumers. Within the 2012 competition, The Tanzanian Rural Energy Agency has selected 15 winners from altogether 102 proposals submitted. The focus is on providing energy lighting services to rural schools and health facilities. Each of the winners received about $100,000 for a total of $1.5 million financed by the World Bank. The implementation of the winning projects will be completed by mid of 2015. The project developers are, for instance, private enterprises such as KAKUTE Ltd, Alternative Energy Tanzania, Masotricity Engineering Company, RESCO Ltd., Southern Corridor Company as well as NGOs like The Tanzania Traditional Energy Development Organization (TaTEDO). Most projects plan the electrification on basis of Solar PV; in at least 2 projects, wind-solar hybrid systems shall be installed (for rural secondary schools and dispensaries in Manyara Region). The contest in 2010 (LRTC 2010) awarded $1 million to 10 winners in the country that resulted in improved access to energy and lighting for over 125,000 individuals and for the users of 52 public facilities. Table provides a list of further selected Professional Off-Grid Projects that have either been completed recently or are on-going. This table gives a good overview of the nature of projects in this market segment. Table 11: Selected professional off-grid projects, completed or underway Project Name & Location Donor, Description Year Sustainable Solar Market Package (SSMP), Kigoma Solar energy for schools Kigoma MCC (US Government), 2012 USAID, 2012 Solar energy systems for health clinics Tanzania National Parks USAID Lake Basin Clusters project EU funded, 2012 Small solar energy minigrids set up for rural electrification REA, 2010 (Lighting Rural Tanzania TANAPA 235 kWp of solar energy systems for public facilities and solar home systems. Investment: 4.7 million USD. Implemented by Camco and Rex Energy. Implemented by Solar Nexus International. 250 kWp in 900 school learning systems. System size range 90-220 Wp. 21 rural clinics (6 kWp each), i.e. 126 kWp total. Implemented by Ensol. 16 systems (3.5 kWp each), i.e. 56kWp total. implemented by Ensol. SHS procurement in bulks (30-60-100W), totalling 1 million USD. Based on TEDAP initiative and implemented by Camco. 10kWp in Serengeti, developed by Carbon X, connections with load limiters at 50W (12,000 TZS/mo), 100W and 200W. 20 Competition) Various rural electrification projects conducted by NGO TaTEDO TaTEDO Telecoms: Airtel and TTCL Commercial Tourism: Tourvest and AfrikaAfrika Commercial Social enterprise Devergy has implemented a small solar energy grid in Matipwili as their first pilot of a pay-as-you-use system. NGO active in rural electrification project market. Planning 2 village minigrids with feefor-service arrangements and solar kiosks for productive use of energy. Airtel currently greening sites worldwide with 3MWp capacity. Started greening sites in Tanzania in 2012. TTCL installed solar energy systems to power several off-grid towers. Each of the systems was ca. 6 kWp with batteries. More information in section 2.3.2 Tourvest invested in a 15kWp system for one of their tented camps in Tanzania (supplied from South Africa) and AfrikaAfrika installed solar energy systems in two of their facilities (installed by local company Voltzon). More information in section 2.3.5 Source: African Solar Designs Interesting potential clients for German suppliers of off-grid solutions in the professional market segment are religious centres. For instance, the German company Energiebau Solarstromsysteme installed an off-grid solar hybrid system with vegetable oil generator for the Convent of the Vincentian Sisters (already in the year 2006). The system comprises of a 8,1 kWp solar and a 30 kW electricity generator. Project partner was the InWent, nowadays part of GIZ. The market size of the “professional” market in the order of 1 MWp p.a. and growing, with sustained interest from donors and the private sector7. Installation costs for such projects are relatively high at about 10-15 USD/kWp for installed off-grid systems, primarily due to the logistical difficulties of reaching remote parts of the country. The main players in the off-grid professional market are summarized in Error! Reference source not found. More companies active in this market are provided in the annexed database. Table 12: Selected players and distribution channels for the off-grid professional/project market Company Business focus Rex Investments Leading solar energy contractor. Ensol Clients in public sector (education, health, rural electrification) as well as private (hotels, lodges). System integrator and installer. Mostly projects in 1-10kWp range for donors, NGOs and government. Origin of technology Europe, US, China Distribution channels Other comments Extensive dealer network throughout the country Recently completed the Kigoma MCC project (the largest PV project in Tanzania, 275 kWp total ) European and American products 3 branches in Tanzania and network of contractors Sales in the order of 200 kWp/year, upward trend 7 Tanzania has a much higher level of donor-investment in rural energy access than Kenya because of the more transparent and facilitative nature of its Government in rural energy. 21 Voltzon System integrators and installers. Solar energy systems for tourism, residential sector and institutions. Helvetic Solar Wholesale of Victron inverters. Wide range of solar energy products, from pico to kW scale. Europe Victron inverters (the Netherlands) Voltzon is both a wholesaler of Victron inverters in Tanzania and a system integrator for projects. Several projects in the private (residential, tourism) and public sectors European and American products Based in Arusha to have access to tourism sector in Northern Circuit of Tanzania. Awarded Fastest Growing and Number One in the Top 100 Mid Sized Companies in Tanzania 2012 2013 (The Citizen, Mwananchi Communications, NBC Bank and KPMG). Clients include private sector, government and donors. Retail sales, wholesale supplier, importer, distributor, system integrators and installers. Source: African Solar Designs Medium/small scale grid-connect The comparatively low (and subsidized) Tanesco electricity price8 is unlikely to stimulate rapid market for grid-connected systems. As well, the absence of net-metering or attractive FiT‟s provides little stimulus for commercial market development. Despite the fact that projects are not taking place, there is increased interest among “first movers” to invest in solar including: Green buildings: interest in both “green energy” aspects and back-up power aspects. Activist organizations: organizations want to be “first players” in sustainable energy market The market for small and medium scale grid-connected systems is currently negligible, though (again has happened in Kenya), solar PV systems installed as part of power backup systems are not uncommon. Increasing consumer interests in “green power”, imminent increases in electricity tariffs as well as favourable changes in renewable energy policy are likely to create a market in the near future. It is likely that first pilots in the grid-connect field will come online in 2014. A more detailed discussion of these developing markets can be found in section 4.3.1. Utility-scale power generation (IPP & SPP) No utility-scale solar PV systems have been installed up to 2013 Q2. A few large scale PV projects have been announced and are in different stages of development. Most activity in utility-scale solar is in sales of power to diesel based mini-grids, hybridizing power supply and reducing overall cost of energy, for which there is a significantly higher SPPT. 8 General user tariff (T1) of 221 TZS/kWh (0.13 USD/kWh). Tariffs are significantly lower for larger consumers (T2 and T3 categories). 22 There are 9,1 Mio. people (1,8 Mio. households, 20% of overall population) which are supposed to be best served through mini-grids For promoting mini-grids the Small Power producer schemes was launched in 2008, at it has been described in context of the regulatory framework. Within this scheme, TANESCO already signed Small Power Purchase Agreements with 11 developers to supply 46 MW of power; three of them (14,4 MW) are already supplying power to the main grid. In addition, Letters of Intent have been signed with another 6 developers for 31 MW: Table 13: Mini-grid projects SPP Technology Capacity (in MW) Grid SPPA/LOI Commissioning connection date SPPA Signed TANWATT TPC Moshi Mwenga, Mufindi Ngombeni, Mafia Sao Hill, Mufundi Symbion-KMRI, Tunduru SymbionKigoma St. Agnes Chipole, Songea NextGen Solawazi, Kigoma EA-Power, Tukuyu AHEPO, Mbinga TOTAL SPPA Biomass Biomass Hydro 1,5 9,0 4,0 Main Main Main 09/2009 10/2009 01/2010 06/2010 09/2010 09/2012 Biomass 1,5 Isolated 01/2010 03/2013 Biomass 6.0 Main 02/2010 06/2014 Biomass 0,3 Isolated 07/2012 07/2014 Biomass 3,3 Isolated 12/2012 03/2014 Hydro 7,5 Isolated 01/2013 07/2014 Solar 2,0 Isolated 01/2013 04/2013 Hydro 10,0 main 03/2013 Hydro 1,0 46,1 Isolated 03/2013 Letter of Intent (LOI) Signed Mapembasi, Njombe Kikuletwa II, Kilimanjaro Darakuta, Manyara Mofajus, Mpanda Tangulf, Nakatuta Windpower, Mpanda GoOn Tosa, Iringa TOTAL LOI Hydro 10,0 Main 06/2010 Hydro 7,0 main 10/2011 Hydro 0,9 Main 01/2012 Hydro 1,2 Isolated 04/2012 Hydro 10,0 Main 11/2012 Solar 1,0 Isolated 11/2012 Hydro 0,8 Main Lease from TANESCO 30.9 Source: SREP, April 2013 As the table shows, just 2 projects are on Solar PV. The developers are Next Generation and Windpower. 23 - NextGen Solar is in the process of evaluating an investment opportunity to set up a 2 MWp solar power plant connected to the Tanesco minigrid in Kigoma. The company has already signed an SPPA with Tanesco and EWURA has extended a provisional license. The project will be built, owned and operated by NextGen Solawazi Ltd. (NGSL). It is envisaged to increase the capacities up 5MWp at later stage. Based on the successful implementation of the pilot in Kigoma, NextGen Solawazi will be undertaking investments in several other isolated minigrids for a total capacity of 40MWp of electricity generation (approximate investment of USD 120 million). - Windpower Serengeti is developing the 1 MWp solar energy plant to hybridize a 2.5 MW Tanesco minigrid in Mpanda (Rukwa region). They have completed their feasibility studies and secured land rights and the EIA. They have a Letter of Intent (LOI) from Tanesco. The project falls under the SPPA (off-grid tariff) and has obtained a provisional license from EWURA. Windpower Serengeti is currently looking for investors to move into implementation phase. If the Mpanda project succeeds, two other minigrid sites have been identified and would follow in the pipeline. Beyond the Feed-in-Tariffs and the standardized PPAs, the GoT promotes Small Power Producers through following incentives: 80% of costs for pre-investment works such as feasibility study, EIA etc. are subsidized (up to 100.000 USD/ project) and paid to the project developer 500 USD/ connection are given to the project sponsor for stimulating the connection of many energy consumers These incentives are given in framework of the “Tanzania Energy Development and Access Project” (TEDAP), to large extent financed by the World Bank (including 44 Mio. USD credit and 6,5 Mio. USD grant) The hybridization of existing mini-grids would also be eligible, however, the project would just get the subsidy for the pre-investment measures (e.g. feasibility study), not for the connections. Seventeen thermal isolated mini-grids operated by Tanesco could be hybridized with solar energy, wind or other renewable energy technologies. Some of these sites include Mafia Island, Liwale, Kibondo, Biharamulo, Kasulu, Loliondo. Local firms have shown interest in developing solar energy projects for these locations but thus far not gone far. The key constraint in the development of these projects is the low credit-worthiness of Tanesco, the sole off-taker of energy produced under the SPPA framework. The fact that standardized power purchase tariffs (SPPT) are in Tanzania shillings and updated annually based on the avoided cost of electricity also adds to the high investment risk for investors. An on-going review of the Standardised Power Purchase Agreements (SPPA) is addressing these issues. The Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT) is under review by EWURA and is expected to be technology specific. Obstacles and constraints in market segment Table 14 below summarizes the main obstacles in the solar PV markets in Tanzania. Opportunities in these market segments are explored in section 2 of this document. Table 14: Obstacles and constraints in the solar PV markets in Tanzania Segment Obstacle/Entry Barrier Off-grid small system market Essentially an over-the-shelf market. 24 Professional market Small scale grid connect market Utility-scale market Low quality equipment from Asia. Poor system design. Lack of consumer faith & professional experience in technology Poor local installation capacity Consumer finance High costs Battery end-of-life replacement issues Low grid electricity tariffs Lack of FiTs, net-metering or policy framework for grid connection High investment risk: low creditworthiness of Tanesco, SPPA tariffs in TZS and reviewed annually 3.3. Status of wind energy sector Tanzania is blessed with strong wind resources particularly in escarpment areas around the Rift Valley (which divides the country from north to south) and along the coastal areas. However, it has been much slower than Kenya to measure or develop the wind resources and to attract investors to wind projects. Currently, off-grid stand-alone wind systems below 50 kW are an interesting market opportunity because of: a) the lack of grid power in large swaths of the country, b) the sustained wind resources and c) increasing interest in isolated systems and mini-grids (from the Government, donors and private sector). There is no complete wind resource mapping for Tanzania, but measurements in certain promising regions are available: Wind measurements at 30m are available at Tanesco for certain regions (3 sites: Makambako, Singida and Mwanga). The results were very promising for Makambako and Singida, with average wind speeds of 10-11 m/s. The REA has issued a tender for “Wind Resource Assessment and Preparation of Concept Proposals for Wind Electricity Generation”. This was World Bank-funded under the TEDAP program. Stand-alone wind systems There are only few technology suppliers offering small-scale wind turbines for stand-alone electricity generation. Much of the investment is missionary or individual project based and necessarily involved procurement from overseas suppliers on an ad-hoc basis. According to the TAREA directory, there are no more than 5 companies dealing with the technology. The most prominent are: Windpower Serengeti: the company started operations in 2010, locally manufacturing 1kW turbines. They have up to now installed 13 turbines, most of them for donor-funded projects such as rural health clinics and dispensaries (funded by the REA) and for rural computer and internet access programs (NGO-funded). They have also installed a turbine for a private eco-lodge. REDCOT (Renewable Energy Development Company Tanzania): new company providing renewable energy solutions with a focus on small-scale wind turbines. 25 Isolated mini-grids To date no isolated mini-grids include wind energy as part of their make-up. According to the SREP document, wind energy will be considered as an addition to mini-grids in order to hybridize the diesel supply. There are no projects in the pipeline. Large scale projects There are two utility-scale wind projects currently under development in Singida. Power generation is scheduled to start in 2013 and 2014 (the projects have been in development for over 8 years and have already had numerous delays). One of the companies, Geo Wind Power (originated from Power Pool East Africa, PPEA), has entered a PPP with the National Development Cooperation (NDC) and Tanesco to develop 50 MW of wind power in Singida. Geo Wind Power has completed the feasibility study and design work is in the final stages. The project will be financed by the Exim Bank of China. Geo Wind Power is owned by the Tanzanian Government (Tanesco and NDC, 51%) and PPEA (49%). The second project is being developed by Wind East Africa and is planning to install 100MW and then increase to 200MW. Wind East Africa is an IPP resulting from a joint venture of IFC, Six Telecoms and Aldwych International. Obstacles and constraints in the market segment The wind sector in Tanzania is in extremely early stages of development. It is likely to follow the solar PV sector and follow Kenya‟s wind market trajectory. Large scale generation projects suffer from a low credit rating of the overall electricity sector. Wind developers active in Africa are focused on markets like South Africa and Kenya, where there are more assured long-term power purchase arrangements, where Government policy has a stronger focus (and demand for the technology) and where there is a better understanding of wind technology. Off-grid wind projects suffer from a lack of competent companies, extremely high project costs, and a lack of available equipment. Once installed, consumers lack faith in the long-term operation, maintenance and spare part supply for wind systems. 3.4. International cooperation projects Tanzania receives significant support from its Development Partners for the energy sector, including renewable energy and rural electrification. The overall commitments of the DP amount to about 1 billion USD, of which 350 Mio. USD are for the promotion of RE. Table 15: international cooperation projects Project/ Components/ Features Donor TEDAP - Financed by the World Bank 158 Mio. USD IDA credit and 6,5 Mio. USD grant from GEF. o Of this, REA received 44,2 Mio. USD of the IDA credit and the GEF grant for off-grid electrification o 23 Mio. USD credit line to offer long-term financing through local commercial banks for small RE projects (mini-grids and stand-alone electrification) 26 SREP - Development of the regulatory framework for SPP The project‟s closing date is 03/2015. By detail: o Support to SPP grants for pre-investment works, 500 USD/ connection; o promotion of stand-alone systems through SSMP ( 2,5 USD/ Wp up to 30 W, 1,5 USD/ W for 31-100 Wp) and Lighting Rural Tanzania ( grant up to 100.000 USD/ winner) - Investment plan: 719 Mio. USD Supposed to be an umbrella investment plan, which is going to funded by various donors. 181 Mio. USD is supposed to be spent on off-grid electrification (150 Mio. USD for mini- and micro-grids, 31 Mio. USD for stand-alone) Sponsors: 50 Mio. WB, 30 Mio. Private sector, 28 Mio. Commercial banks, 47 Mio. Other Development Partners etc. Priority is given especially to o RE for rural electrification, with focus on RE mini-grids and Solar PV stand-alone systems, o Geothermal Power Development, o Alternative Biomass supply options Off-Grid electrification project targets: altogether 47,5 MW, benefit to 442.500 customers (households and others), 2,2 Mio. people: o 45 MW (25 x 1,8 MW) RE mini-grids, o 0,3 MW (50 x 6 kW) micro-grids, o support to SSMP 0,8 MW (4400 public facilities à 180 W) and 1,4 MW (70.000 households à 20 W) - - GIZ/ KfW Millenniu m Challeng e Corporat ion DFID upcoming Most relevant Technical Cooperation Component (to be implemented by GIZ): - Support on conducive framework conditions for renewable energy (RE) development and investment promotion, e.g. o review of contractual and licensing procedures for RE investments o review of existing policies and regulations concerning private sector participation in RE development - Securing sustainability of RE implementation, e.g. o quality monitoring of RE equipment, o provision of technical best practices and development of guidelines for RE - 5-year (2008-2013) Compact programme (698 Mio. USD) to reduce poverty and stimulate economic growth by increasing household incomes through targeted investments in transportation, energy, and water - Energy sector programme: 207 Mio. USD for o Lay a submarine electric transmission cable from the mainland to Unguja Island (Zanzibar), as well as extend the distribution network; o Rehabilitate the existing distribution infrastructure and a number of distribution line extensions to unserved areas in six regions (Mwanza, Iringa, Mbeya, Dodoma, Tanga, Kigoma and Morogoro). - financed an SSMP project in Kigoma Region to benefit the population of 25 villages, including 14 health centres, 116 dispensaries, 130 vaccine refrigerators and 45 secondary schoools - Approved a second MCC Compact for 400-500 Mio. USD - Minimum 50 Mio. British Pounds East Africa International Green Mini-Grids Promotion Fund support to feasibility studies and preparatory work, support to evaluation Multi-Country Loan and PGR Fund providing long tenor senior debt + partial risk guarantee on off-taker default Country-specific Project Development and Impact Fund Support to project development, support to community mobilization, support to end-user finance 27 NORAD SIDA funding the preparation of the Rural Electrification Investment Prospectus One of the main donors of TEDAP, which is implemented by World Bank Provision of Business Development Services to solar companies in 16 regions: e.g. technical and marketing training for solar retailers, technicians etc. Source: German Energy Desk 4. - Market potential and planned projects 4.1. Overall sector outlook Off-grid: Tanzania’s low electrification rates, high electricity costs and poor utility performance will support continued development of off-grid solar segments. The pico and solar home system market will continue to grow, but be exploited by Asian low quality suppliers. Government support for this sector has some potential to drive quality standards up and create room for higher-standard players, but this will required capacity building and private sector goodwill. Telecom, tourism and off-grid business markets will increasing look to solar to reduce diesel generator costs. Quality equipment, design and after-service will be demanded. Government and NGO stand-alone PV system projects will continue to be offered on a project by project basis. They may also but be competitive and difficult to win because donor and Government projects tend to favour companies with close connections to donor/Government agencies. The April 2013 SREP program being developed by the Government may provide a large boost to this sector. Isolated grids will provide an increasingly interesting entry point for a wide range of gridconnect systems (i.e. 100 kWp to 10 MW). Many of these will be supported by donors including the World Bank, BMZ, USAID and DFID. Mining, tourism, and rural electrification may stimulate this market9. On-Grid: In the medium term (3-10 years) there will be a gradual transition from off-grid to on-grid market demand. The Green Building sector will be a prime mover in this sector as internationallyconnected groups will seek to incorporate solar into their buildings, and will lobby Government to provide a facilitative environment for PV use. Increasing electricity costs, combined with intermittent supply, will raise interest in inverter-PV solutions that can bridge black-outs and stabilize electricity costs. Simple back-up systems that incorporate PV will begin to be demanded by urban commercial and upper class10. South African and Kenyan solar projects will raise the profile of large scale solar among Tanzanian policy makers and stimulate investment. Government mid-range projections call for 120 MW of PV on-grid by 201711. 9 Rural Electrification Masterplan estimates that 20% of electrification will be from RE-powered mini-grids. 10 Promising Lithium ion battery solutions with generator sets 11 SREP and PSMP, April 2013 28 Table 16: Market development summary General Estimated Policy Market Potential Size Barriers Segment (MW/year) Off-grid SHS & Pico Off-grid Professional Market (including micro-grids and SSMP) Small and medium scale Grid Connect Utility-scale solar (MW projects), including solar for mining sites >2 MW/year reducing after 2015 >1MW per year (SREP microgrids and SSMP 2.5 MWp by 2015) Low Low Ease of Entry for German Companies Stiff price competition from Asia Low quality demand Ease of entry dependent on sector: tourism and NGO: many players, relatively easy entry. Market Drivers Donor programs (see SREP) Rural demand Tourism, telecom, NGOs Government and donor procurement (see SREP) Telecom sector and government procurement requires big well-financed players Difficult to predict, since highly dependent on policy and grid electricity tariffs. Market of 5 MW/year (after 2015?) easily identifiable >10 MW/year (after 2015?) High policy barriers and low electricity tariffs High quality, less price sensitive. Increasingly viable market Requires intense discussion with regulator Low quality, intermittent, high cost of grid power Green building sector Grid-connected industry Medium policy barriers and slow process (SPPA framework) Long term developing market Hybridization of isolated mini-grids Mining sector Rising thermal power prices Solar price declining Future projections for the development of the four categories above are discussed in sections 4.2 and 4.3 below. Recommendations for German RE enterprises The professional off-grid sector will grow considerably in the foreseeable future, with two primary drivers: - Government/NGO procurements as part of bilateral and multilateral systems and Commercial systems for the private sector in the telecom, tourism, agriculture and off-grid productive sectors. German players with strengths in off-grid PV, inverter, battery and BOS equipment delivery and designers, consultants, program managers should position themselves to collaborate with local providers or NGOs in this market. The grid connect sector will grow along two lines: Development of off-grid isolated mini-grids stimulated by multi-lateral and bilateral projects (and strong incentives for these) 29 Small and medium scale household, building-integrated, commercial and agricultural sector grid connect projects that are based on net-metering, embedded power, and aspirational desire for green power. Longer-term Government-driven initiatives to build large (>10 MW) solar farms in strategic areas based on feed-in tariffs and other incentives. German players should identify partners (developers, consultants, architects, financiers) who can help them position themselves to gain entry to these markets. It is likely that some of the funding for the type of projects mentioned above will be sourced from German bilateral sources. As an example, a private hospital in Tanzania, the Comprehensive Community Based Rehabilitation in Tanzania (CCBRT), has secured funding from German donors for a grid-connected solar PV system for its facilities in Dar es Salaam. Section 4.2 outlines planned projects, most of which are donor-led, while Section 4.3 outlines sectors that are likely to become active in the short to medium term. 4.2. Planned projects In the short term, NGO, bilateral and World Bank projects will provide a constant source of funding for new projects. However, most of the anticipated 2-3 MW/year of sales will be quite competitive, and it will be difficult for commercial companies to enter the competitive local market without strong local partners. Professional, stand-alone Solar Home Systems and pico-solar The Rural Electrification Masterplan estimates 32% of rural population will be electrified by standalone PV or mini-grids in short and medium term. However, without considerable financing support from outside sources, the Tanzanian Government will not be able to carry this out. Commercial markets for SHS and pico systems will continue to carry on at over 1 MW/year. There will be systematic support for programs (of the SSMP and “cluster” type supported by EU and the WB). In the short term, World Bank TEDAP, the REA and other bilateral programs will support the execution of the institutional and SHS electrification objectives. TEDAP, USAID, NORAD, SIDA, the EU and BMZ have provided indications that they will continue to support the Government and REA in this work. A second phase for the TEDAP Sustainable Solar Market Packages (SSMP) is to be launched by the REA to provide solar power for public facilities in rural Tanzania. The REA estimates that 80% of public institutions have no access to electricity. USD 30 million is the indicative SREP budget for stand-alone solar investments in households and public sector facilities12. As well, NGOs (SolarAid, TaTeDo, Clinton Foundation, missionaries and others) will continue to provide a steady flow of off-grid projects to well-connected players. For example, TaTeDo has a pipeline of donor-funded projects including: Productive use of solar (funded by the EU and AU) 12 Previous SSMP programs have been relatively slow to roll-out (and cumbersome). Whether the REA/Government will be able to streamline the tenders in the future, and make them attractive for German companies, is yet to be seen. 30 Solar PV for households and institutions (funded by EEP) Minigrids for rural electrification supported by the REA: 2 minigrids of 35kWp in Shinyanga and Mwanza. Funds have been released from TEDAP and TaTeDo is the course of identifying towns with business to set up a fee for service structure. The timeline of the project is however unclear. Solar kiosks 700-800W each. TaTeDo will re-advertise the procurement opportunity shortly. In the medium term (after 2015) the Scaling Up Renewable Energy Programme is Box 2: Scaling up renewable energy programme SREP in Tanzania is a World Bank-led multi-lateral project valued at US$719M that contains major large scale geothermal and off-grid solar mini-grid and stand-alone components. The goal of the solar component is to “build an efficient and responsive project development infrastructure, and demonstrate its effectiveness by supporting a time-slice of investments towards achieving the 2025 national rural electricity access goal in areas delineated for mini-grid and stand-alone electricity service in the Rural Electrification Master Plan…” The project will offer transaction advisory services to prepare 25 renewable energy mini-grid and 50 micro-grid investments to benefit an estimated 47,500 households in addition to 10 SSMP projects. These are indicative numbers as the types, sizes and locations of these off-grid projects will emerge from the Rural Electrification Investment Prospectus exercise that is underway. Mini-grid (25 units) elements of the project will include small hydro, solar, biomass, biogas, and wind as well as hybrids solutions. Micro-grids (50 units) and SSMP stand-alone systems (4400 public institutions and 70,000 hh) will primarily use solar PV. The estimated budget for implementing the SREP investment plan is about US$ 182 million for off-grid electrification components. expected to grow the market for renewables in Tanzania (see 2). The Kenya Association of Manufacturers RTAP program (see Box 3), expanding from its Kenya base, is targeted specifically at private-sector based renewable energy and energy efficiency activities. Box 3: KAM Regional Technical Assistance Program (RTAP) The Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) Regional Technical Assistance Program (RTAP) is expanding its €30M credit line into Tanzania starting in June 2013. It intends to manage projects for a total of USD 12 million in year 1, with a total of 30 million EUR total over the intended life. The project will be carried out through Bank of Africa Tanzania. Due to TANESCO’s low credit rating, RTAP is not keen on projects selling power to the utility. It is mostly focused on small and medium scale initiatives, with a special focus on capacity building. The Confederation of Tanzanian Industries (CTI) is a partner in the project that will be fundamental in capacity building. Targeted sectors include agro-industry, manufacturing and tourism. RTAP is currently building the project pipeline for the next 2-3 years. It is expected that funds will be drawn down in 1.5 years. The largest project proposals received are in the order of 2-3 million USD in agriculture and tourism sectors. A high share of the projects in the preliminary pipeline are solar energy projects. Interest rates for the KAM finance window are 20 to 28% on TZS loans and 12 to 15% on USD for SMEs. Corporate rates are 16-19% in TZS and 10-12% in USD. Based on capacity building and reduction of technical risk from the facility rates could be reduced to 15% for TSH and 910% for USD. 31 Mini-grids As mentioned in the REMP document, mini-grids are estimated to provide approximately 20% of the rural electrification coverage 13 . The SREP document indicates that mini- and micro-grids will be a large part of REA-managed scaling initiative. Significant funding from the World Bank, DFID and other donors is expected to support private-sector led models for mini-grid development. Thus far, most of the limited mini-grid experience in Tanzania has been thermal, hydro and biomass-based. The REA is anxious to build up solar PV/hybrid mini-grid capacity in advance of the SREP roll-out. As high rainfall and solar radiation are usually negatively correlated (i.e. during the rainy season, solar radiation levels are typically low) there is a high value in using solar and hydro conjunctively. The Power System Master Plan (PSMP) envisages 120 MWp of solar in the short-term power expansion plan by 2016/2017. Several private firms have expressed interest in investing in 50-100 MWp of solar PV. NextGen Solawazi has signed a SPPA with TANESCO to supply electricity from 2 MWp of PV to an isolated grid. TANESCO has also signed a Letter of Intent for a 1 MWp isolated grid-tied PV project. In the short term, PV generation projects are likely to be connected to existing off-grid diesel mini-grids (see above), where SPPA tariffs are higher (currently 29,4 USCent). SPPA tariff for grid-connect systems is too low to justify large scale solar investment. Thus, for the Tanzanian Government, solar for isolated grids are a high priority in both green field privately developed mini-grids and Government isolated grids (there are 17 isolated grids managed by Tanesco with potential for hybridization. See SREP/PSMP). Such systems would receive the highest SPPA tariffs. Projects below 1MW do not need a license from EWURA to operate. They however have to request for exemption from the EWURA licensing process and tariffs need to be approved based on an agreement between the energy provider and the customer. 3 presents the existing grid in Tanzania as well as the isolated thermal mini-grids that present potential for hybridization with solar energy. Figure 3: Existing grid system and plants 13 The consultants consider this target ambitious and estimate that isolated mini-grid initiatives will struggle to reach 5-10% of the off-grid market. 32 Large-scale wind power According to the PSMP, 100 MW wind is scheduled to be on-line by 2016/2017 (short term expansion plan). Currently 150 MWp in the pipeline (Singida) as presented in section 1.2.2. Wind projects in the pipeline will scale up if the first phase is successful. For example, Geo Wind Power would scale up to 300 MW in Singida while Wind East Africa would scale up to 200 MW in Singida. Planned PV projects summary Table 17 summarizes projects planned according to the PSMP and SREP targets and under the upcoming KAM/RTAP facility. Table 17: Summary of planned projects (PSMP, SREP and KAM) Project category Estimated potential size Actors Timeline Comments Renewable Energy gridconnect and mini-grids The PSMP indicates solar energy projects totalling 120 MWp in 2016/2017. Government (investments from SREP and other) 2016/2017 according to PSMP. The SREP target of 45 MW of renewable energy mini-grids is for 2025. SREP Off-grid Electrification Project includes 25 mini-grids totalling 45 MW of renewable energy that would be included in this category. Renewable Energy Microgrids 0.3 MWp (SREP Off-grid Electrification Project Targets) Government (investments from SREP) SREP targets are for 2025. 50 micro-grids of 6 kWp each. SSMP Packages 2.2 MWp (SREP Off-grid Electrification Project Targets) Government (investments from SREP) SREP targets are for 2025. 4,400 public facilities and 70,000 SHS KAM/RTAP facility Up to 3 MWp (based on available funds) KAM, Bank of Africa Tanzania, CTI and private sector companies 2016/2017 Several projects (>100) off-grid and grid-connect from the private sector Based on the previous summary, the planned projects would create a market for solar energy of more than 20 MWp p.a. This figure is most influenced by the Government‟s targets in the Power Sector Master Plan. It should be seen as optimistic due to normal delays in project development. The market potential for planned projects in this category can be deemed at 10-15 MWp p.a. Donor-funding for PV is primarily directed at the connection of households and public institutions for increased “access”. Little of the targeted donor aid is specifically targeted at developing commercial components of the “professional” market (see Section 2.3 below). Thus, this part of the market will require concerted efforts by German companies to develop (unless different funding vehicles are developed). 33 4.3. Undeveloped market opportunities Other than utility-scale projects, there is a large potential for solar energy in the private sector, both for off-grid facilities displacing conventional fuel as well as gridconnected consumers seeking alternatives or a complement to grid power. This section explores opportunities for renewable energy in different sectors of the economy. The analysis commences with a sectorial breakdown of GDP (see fig. 4) to have an overview of the importance of each sector in the national context and then the most promising sectors are covered in detail. Figure 4: Sectorial breakdown of GDP, 2011 provisional figures, Bank of Tanzania 2012 Financial intermediation 2.0% Health Education 1.9% 1.5% Other social & personal services 0.7% Communication s 2.4% Trade and repairs 13.5% Hotels and restaurants 2.5% Transport 5.9% Real estate and business services 9.1% Public administration 8.8% Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing 27% Services 48% Forestry and hunting 2.6% Fishing 1.6% Livestock 4.0% Crops 18.5% Industry and construction 25% Electricity, gas 2.0% Water supply 0.3% Mining and quarrying 3.6% Manufacturing 10.3% Construction 8.6% 34 The economy of Tanzania depends heavily on agriculture, the service sector and tourism. Tourism accounts for nearly half the GDP. Agriculture accounts for 24.6 per cent of the GDP and employs two thirds of the work force. Other key growth sectors are construction, manufacturing and mining. The manufacturing, mining, and service sectors strongly depend on a reliable, low cost and sustainable electricity supply. Tanzania also has significant mineral reserves that are relatively underdeveloped. Planned development of mining will contribute to economic growth and will demand increased energy sources. Tanzania has am estimated 140 million tons (MT) of gold reserves, 536 MT of coal, 33 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves and abundant reserves of other minerals including uranium, nickel and precious stones. Agriculture is the largest sector of the economy in terms of GDP (18.9%). It is, however, noted that half of this GDP is non-monetary (i.e. subsistence farming or informal trade). The most promising sectors for the deployment of renewable energy (particularly solar PV) are considered to be the following: Tourism Telecommunications Real estate / Construction (Green buildings) Manufacturing Mining Each of these is covered in detail in the following sections. 4.3.1 Real estate / construction (Green Building Sector) The construction sector has been one of the major drivers of growth in Tanzania together with mining, communications and the financial sector. The Tanzanian construction sector enjoyed 12-15% growth in recent years, largely stemming from an increase in infrastructure projects and new construction in residential areas due to huge unmet need for housing. The green building sector in Tanzania is at a formation stage, and mostly concentrated in large cities such as Dar es Salaam and Arusha. The small group of architects and builders interested in this market has noticed a growing commercial/consumer awareness of solar viability. Cost of energy is not the primary consideration --- power back-ups supply to counter frequent outages and interest in low carbon emissions are also drivers for business and missions. Grid parity, especially when cost of diesel and generators are included, is “on the horizon”. Types of systems considered by clients include: Grid-connected solar and power back-up solutions for the residential and small commercial sectors Development of larger commercial-based net-metering opportunities Building integrated PV systems where design and green image is of relevance. A low general use Tanesco tariff (T1) of 13 USDc/kWh mitigates against grid connect PV. The subsidized price of electricity is too low to encourage small scale use of solar. The prospect of increasing electricity tariffs (policy of cost reflective tariffs) should see a large (>30%) increase in electricity tariffs that could be favourable for the grid-connect solar energy market. Tanesco tariffs are set for review 201314. Net-metering, which would greatly increase the attractiveness of solar PV in the built environment, has not, thus far, been considered by the regulator. EWURA indicated an 14 Though there are political forces that work to prevent increases. 35 upcoming review of policy framework for renewables and the subject of net-metering could be included. Indicative discussions with green building advocates demonstrate that there is an appetite for city-based PV systems in Dar es Salaam, Mwanza and Arusha that could develop into a multi-megawatt market for grid connect PV over a 5 year period. One green architect (Architectural Pioneering Consultants, APC, see list of contacts) is developing a number of projects for clients with interest in solar energy solutions. Thus far, there is much more interest in energy efficient buildings (natural ventilation, orientation, minimizing heat gain, etc.) but limited interest in solar PV. This lack of interest may have more to do with limited knowledge, and extremely high cost systems, rather than lack of desire to install systems. Clients that have discussed solar solutions in their locations include: International School of Kenya (green building design in process) CCBRT Hospital: Carried out a study and design for grid-tied solar PV system. Has obtained funds for phase 1 of the project (one of the new buildings, 50-60 kWp). Looking for funding for the 2nd new building (another 50-60 kWp). This solar energy installation will be tendered out shortly. Tigo seeks to reduce energy consumption in offices and customer centres and achieve 30% reduction in energy expenditure. They are implementing green building concepts in the Tigo HQ building in Dar es Salaam. Market opportunities, challenges and recommendations - Market size very difficult to predict since it will depend on future developments on policy for grid-connection of renewables and evolution of grid electricity prices. Market of 2-3 MW/year (after 2015?) easily identifiable. - Most project will fall under the category of Small and medium scale Grid Connect - Main drivers are low quality, intermittent and high cost of grid power as well as green power demand - There is an extremely low capacity to conduct energy audits, evaluate HVAC and lighting solutions and even to design solar PV solutions. Thus the architect must source expertise to design specialized energy systems from abroad --- local clients are still not willing to pay what they consider to be high energy auditing costs. - Two leading architecture firms in the space of energy efficient buildings (APC and IPA) can be contacted by German companies for partnering opportunities. 4.3.2 Telecommunications The telecommunications market in Tanzania has seen an attractive growth rate over the last few years and reaches an overall subscriber base of 26.8 million (this represents a 62% population coverage). The size of the telecom network in Tanzania consists of almost 5,000 base stations and is expected to grow rapidly during the next couple of years at a rate of 20-30%, i.e. approximately 1,000 new towers a year. Power supply is a major concern for mobile network operators given that: - More than 30% of existing base stations are off-grid and mostly powered by diesel generators 36 - Grid connected base stations are subject to load shedding and power outages. Practically all sites have a back-up power solution (diesel generator in most cases) and this is used for 8 hours a day in average. A critical 20% of grid-connected towers do not have grid power for more than 12 hours a day. The figures below from a GSMA regional research clearly show the dominance of diesel generators in the overall energy supply of telecom towers. Figure 5: Sites by power solution deployed (on-grid) Source: GSMA 2012 Figure 6: Sites by power solution deployed (off-grid) Source: GSMA 2012 The deployment of green power solutions has not been taken to scale due to its inherent challenges in terms CAPEX and vendor support. The fraction of sites deployed with green power solution stands at 4% of the total off-grid sites. Grid-connected base stations have not at all green power; in Tanzania 65-70% of the grid-connected base stations have diesel generators. The majority of the green power solutions deployed are solar and hybrids. 37 The telecom infrastructure industry in Tanzania is represented by MNOs/Tower Companies who own the tower assets and telecoms equipment vendors who supply telecom as well as power equipment and solutions. The site operations and maintenance is led by the services provider with support from sub-contractors at the field level. Table provides information on the market leaders in the telecommunications field in Tanzania. Leading operators are Vodacom, Airtel and Tigo. The Tanzania Telecommunications Company Limited (TTCL) only has a 2% share of the market and Zantel operates in Zanzibar with 7% of the total market share. Table 18: Dominant mobile network operators (MNOs) in Tanzania Mobile Network Operator (MNO) Nr. of subscribers Tower and power infrastructure O&M services Opportunities Vodacom >10 million Owned, ca. 2000 towers Outsourced High interest in solar. Recently launched solar phone charging program in Tanzania. Airtel ca. 10 million Owned, ca. 2000 towers Outsourced Airtel currently greening telecom towers in Tanzania Tigo 7 million Outsourced (Helios Towers). 1500-2000 towers. Outsourced (Sincro Site Watch) All sites (on and offgrid) with either diesel back-up or diesel as prime power. MNOs currently still own the majority of towers and the transfer of tower assets to a Tower Company has been a recent phenomenon which is gaining momentum. Helios Towers (HTT) is pushing this model in Tanzania. Tigo is in the process completing handover of their entire tower infrastructure and HTT is currently negotiating with other MNOs. Market potential Tanzania provides potential green power opportunities for 44% of the total installed base of telecom sites; equivalent to 2,000 potential sites. Of these potential sites, 30% are unreliable grid sites with power outages in excess of 12 hours a day while the remaining 70% of sites which are completely off-grid are powered by diesel generators and battery hybrid power systems. These sites could be retrofitted to include renewables and significantly reduce fuel expenditure. In addition to existing sites, tower infrastructure is growing fast and it is estimated that ca. 1,000 new sites will be constructed per year for the next couple of years. Many of these sites will face the same problems as existing sites regarding power supply. It could also be assumed that 40% of new sites will either be off-grid or have a very unreliable power supply. New sites can be provided with a hybrid source of power during the construction phase. The MNOs and tower companies are more inclined towards the CAPEX model for green deployments, i.e. investing in and owning energy infrastructure with partners for operations and maintenance of equipment. The OPEX model, based on outsourcing the production of energy and paying for electricity consumed, is yet to gain relevance due to the lack of vendors with proven business models and results. 38 Solar PV technology is the dominant choice for green power deployments in the region. The technology is commercially available as opposed to wind power at the pilot stage. Assuming investment per site of 6 to 10kWp of solar PV to hybridize sites, ca. 70% of fuel consumption could be saved and a payback period of between 3-3.5 years on the investment could be achieved. Based on these assumptions, the market potential for retrofitting existing sites is of 16 MWp and the potential for new sites is of 3.5 MWp per annum. Interviews with MNOs revealed that due to land issues and other administrative matters, it would be much simpler to invest in solar in the new sites rather than retrofitting. Note that decisions with regard to implementation of green power solutions are often made over-seas, with local players having only peripheral roles in decision-making. Opportunities and challenges for German companies: - - - - Tigo targets 2.5 million USD in power savings, one of their main operating expenses. They are handing towers over to Helios Towers Tanzania (HTT). With new business models for tower sharing and vertical real estate, tower companies can focus on power infrastructure. Helios Towers Tanzania is well placed to consider the benefits of including renewable energy to hybridize sites dependent on diesel. Tigo is also looking but looking into energy efficiency options for their offices, customer centres and warehouses throughout the country. Airtel is greening their off-grid sites with solar PV. They have already invested in 3MWp of solar power to hybridize off-grid sites around the world and have inaugurated first solar site in Tanzania in late 2012. Tanzania Telecommunications Company (TTCL) has already installed solar PV in many of their sites. Opportunities for local companies in the telecom sector are limited due to telecom technology companies such as Huawei which bring their own subcontractors for solar. The situation is similar for Ericsson wind and gen solutions. 4.3.3 Mining Mining represents 3% of Tanzania‟s GDP and generates one third of the country‟s foreign exchange earnings. Minerals in Tanzania include gold, diamonds, gemstones, natural gas, iron ore, coal, nickel, tin, phosphates, soda ash and salt. Investor-friendly mining laws and favorable tax rules have enabled mining to become one of the fastest growing sectors in Tanzania. Gold mining has been prominent in Tanzania for more than a century and Tanzania is now Africa's third largest gold producing country after South Africa and Ghana. Nonetheless, the country remains under-explored in comparison with other gold producers of its size and there is therefore a high probability of future discoveries. Tanzania has been a significant diamond producer for several decades, with the bulk of production coming from the Williamson Diamonds Mine at Mwadui where commercial production began in 1925. The mining sector is a large energy consumer. An estimated 30% of the country‟s energy consumption goes to the mining sector. Several mines are connected to the grid but there is a large suppressed demand (in the order of 100MW) that is met through private generators, creating opportunities for renewable energy. The reliability of power supply is 39 critical in most mining operations (mills, agitators, crushing machines, etc.) and even gridconnected plants have to rely on private generators to compensate for grid failures. Table presents a brief summary of the main mining developments in Tanzania as well as their energy requirements, challenges and opportunities. In addition to this table, annex A3 provides a list of major loads expected to connect to the grid according to the latest version of the PSMP. This list includes a number of mines that could also benefit from a hybridized source of power before the grid connection is achieved. 40 Firm African Barrick Gold (ABG) Mineral Gold Sites Tanzania‟s largest gold producer. 4 operating mines (Bulyanhulu, Buzwagi, North Mara and Tulawaka). Tulawaka expected to close mid-2013. Production Bulyanhulu, Buzwagi, and North Mara have a total milling capacity of 8 million tons of ore a year and produce 600,000 ounces of gold per year. The largest mine is Buzwagi (4 million tons of milled ore per year). Energy Comments/Opportunities Power consumption can be estimated between 10 and 30MW per site depending on milling capacity. All mines are grid-connected with back-up generators. Optimizing the power mix for Buzwagi, the largest site, has been established as a priority for ABG. AGB has completed a detailed study on solar power for Buzwagi, but not progressing because capital investment is to be kept low in the current low gold price climate. Lifetime of Bulyanhulu is of 25+ years and Buzwagi and North Mara have resources for ca. 10 years. AngloGold Ashanti Gold 1 operating mine: Geita in the Mwanza region 5.2Mt per annum carbon-inleach processing plant. Produces ca. 500,000 oz/year. Capacity estimated at 40MW. Geita generates its own power, the operation of its power generating facility is outsourced, and fuel is delivered by road. Renewable energy for fuel saving. Expectation of grid-connection in 2015. Shanta Gold Gold New Luika (Mbeya region) commenced gold production in August 2012 New Luika crushes 360,000 tons of ore per year and produces 70,000 oz gold/year. New Luika is off-grid. Power demand is 3MW steady load and peaks of 3.7 MW. Power contracted from Aggreko at 0.43 USD/kWh (8 month contract). Shanta is looking into alternatives to reduce operating expenses, such as grid connection, heavy fuels, LPG, solar energy, etc. A second site (Singida) is in development stage, tentatively starting construction in 2014 and production in 2015. The mine has 10 years lifetime, but resource assessment is being revised (possibly 20 years lifetime). The upcoming Singida site is 30km away from a transmission line and is expected to connect to the grid for the production stage. The grid is 5km from New Luika and Tanesco claims 80% reliability. A dedicated Tanesco line with 90% reliability and energy price of 9 USD/kWh could be available in 2 years. Studies for a 1 MWp solar energy plant have been conducted (fuel saver). Shanta has also expressed interest in a CSR project for village electrification 5km from New Luika site. 41 Petra Diamonds Kabanga Nickel Mantra Uranium Diamonds Nickel Uranium Williamson Diamond Mine in Mwadui (Shinyanga) is the largest producer in Tanzania Production is expected to reach 3.6 Mtpa (~216,000 carats) by FY 2016. 1 site in feasibility stage (located in north western Tanzania, south of Lake Victoria and near the Burundi border). Construction to begin in 2015 after relocation of communities. First phase of operation at partial capacity of extraction (600,000 tons p.a.) during 5 to 7 years. When in full capacity extraction will be of 2Mt p.a. Operations to begin in 2015. - The site is grid-connected. 25 MW additional capacity to come online between 2013 and 2015. - Initial phase of operation will require 6 MW of base power (peaks of 8 MW). Power will be self-generated for at least 7 years. Grid connection is expected by the time the site moves to full capacity, when 30MW of base power (with 40MW peaks) will be required. Opportunities to reduce fuel cost and reduce number of trucks on the road until grid connection in 2020. +50 years lifetime. The lifetime of the mine is of 30+ years. There is also an opportunity to electrify staff camps (currently with 150 kVA genset). The site is 300-400km from the grid and will be electrified according to Rural Electrification Master Plan within 7 years. The mine will subcontract energy supply until grid connection. Power requirement will be ca. 21 MW. Grid connection is expected 2 years after start of operations. Until then the mine will be running on diesel (rental). Table 19: Main players in the mining industry in Tanzania 42 Opportunity to save fuel before grid connection. Main Challenges - Power supply: Several mines such as Shanta Gold/ New Luika (5,2 MW) and Geita (40 MW) are off-grid, with grid connections expected several years after the start of operations. Grid-connected mines such as the mines of Barrick Gold face unreliable supply of power from the utility (20-30% power outage) and have to rely on back-up power. The cost of energy from fuel is very high, at ca. 0.50 USD/kWh. - In addition to the cost of fuel, the transportation of fuel on the road (generally no railroads available) and the risk of accidents have been reported as main concerns. - In the particular case of gold, current low gold prices (1400USD/oz) are pushing companies to drastically cut costs, which presents opportunities for energy cost reductions but also causes delays in investment decisions that are not a priority (e.g. solar energy installation). - Combining solar power and diesel-generators requires careful planning. Conservative mining companies, with limited knowledge of solar solutions prefer to utilize generator sets alone rather than to invest in up-front solar solutions. - They often sub-contract companies such as Aggreko, which operates the power supply systems. The contracts can, of course, not be terminated at any time. But in case of Shanta Gold, for instance, the contract will terminate very soon, so that the mining company thinks about less expensive (in terms of OPEX) power supply options. Table 20: Selection of anticipated major loads in mining industry of Tanzania Load Capacity (MW) location Expected Online Kabanga - Nickel Ntaka Hill - Nickel Dutwa - Nickel Mibongo - Gold Panda Hill – Gold Buckreef – Gold Geitga – Gold Golden Ridge – Gold Bulyanhulu – Gold Williamson Diamond Williamson Diamond Williamson Diamond 32 30 10 20 5 8 30 7 Kagera Lindi Shinyanga Kigoma Mbeya Geita Geita Shinyanga 2016 2018 2015 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 20 Shinyanga 2013 10 Shinyanga 2013 12 Shinyanga 2014 3 Shinyanga 2015 43 Market potential and recommendations for German companies - - In case of late grid connections (after few years of operation start), solar PV systems can work as fuel saver with fast payback. Based on opportunities presented above, ca. 30MWp opportunity of solar for hybridization of diesel power supply in off-grid locations. Potential for electrification of nearby villages (CSR), proposed by Shanta Gold. Opportunities for electrification of staff camps Opportunity for ESCOs selling power below diesel costs (ca. 0.50 USD/kWh), this model is being considered by Sincronicity Power. Opportunities to market mining company as a “green company”. 4.3.4 Agriculture Tanzania‟s economic backbone is agricultural production. Approximately 80% of Tanzanians are employed in the agriculture sector. Major traditional exports are coffee, cotton, tea, cashew nuts, cloves, sisal, sugar and tobacco. Most of agricultural areas are located off-grid, their economy is cash rich and people involved in agriculture have good cooperative arrangements. These features make agriculture and attractive sector for solar energy. Opportunities in the agriculture can arise from: - The market for electrification of households in agricultural areas: this market is being addressed by the EU-funded “cluster project”. Research prior to the clusters project revealed a potential of ca. 2 MWp in SHS for smallholders in the agricultural sector (cashew, coffee, tea and sugar) - Irrigation with solar water pumps: German company Lorentz has established a good distribution network in Tanzania through Davis & Shirtliff and other local companies. - Basic processing of crops in small scale, such as milling, drying, etc: These operations requiring mechanical or thermal power only offer limited potential for solar PV. Other renewable energy technologies such as bio-energy or solar dryers are better suited to serve this market. - Large-scale farming and agro-processing operations are generally better served by bio-energy. There are for example cashew nut factories with SPPAs for biomass generation (MW scale). And Tanga Fresh Milk has installed a biogas plant for getting the heat for pasteurization. However, large agricultural operations, such as those of Mohammed Enterprises Tanzania Ltd (active in sisal, tea, cotton, cashew and palm oil) provide essential infrastructure such as staff housing, labor camps, access roads, schooling and dispensary facilities in their farms and this can provide opportunities for solar PV electrification. The Tanzania Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture (TCCIA) has about 20,000 members and groups a large number of small-holder farmers. This organization can be approached to address the farmers group regarding the potential of solar PV in small agricultural applications. 44 Large agriculture operations such as METL, Unilever tea plantations, etc. could be approached to assess the potential of solar PV in providing energy for staff villages. 4.3.5 Tourism Tourism is a significant contributor to the country‟s GDP estimated at 8.8% in 2009 growing to 10% by 2019. It is estimated that Tanzania has a hotel bed capacity of 65,000. According to the Tanzania Tourist Board, the licensed tourism operators for 2013 include 59 hotels, 49 lodges and 25 tented camps. Most hotels (>90%) are located in urban areas (Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Moshi, Tanga, etc.) and are thus assumed to have a connection to the grid. They however rely on diesel generators as back-up. Most tented camps are located within or around nature reserves and national parks and are off-grid. The same applies to about half of the lodges. According to an internal database, there about 70 off-grid accommodation facilities and their installed power capacity varies significantly depending on size, level of service and location (air conditioning is a major factor). The size of diesel gensets varies between 7 to 400 kVA, averaging 80 kVA per hotel. Table 21: Tourism sector players and power supply Number of Location, size Power Type of facilities supply accommodation Hotels 59 licensed operators Lodges 49 licensed operators Tented camps 25 tented camps licensed by TTB. Example of tourism groups Most hotels (>90%) in urban areas, except for those located in game reserves Located both in off-grid areas (>50%) and grid-connected urban areas. Over 100 beds in average. Most gridconnected with power back-up Protea, New Africa Hotel, Serena, Holiday Inn, Hyatt Regency, Impala hotel, etc. Diesel generator as prime power in off-grid areas. Capacity above 100150 kVA in average. Sopa lodges, Elewana Afrika, Foxes Safari Camps, Coastal Group, Serena, Hotels and Lodges Tanzania Ltd, Moivaro, etc. Most off-grid, small operations, 2030 beds in average Supplied by diesel gensets, 50 kVA installed capacity in average Nomad, Grumeti Reserves, Foxes Safari Camps, Coastal Group, Serena, Elewana Afrika, AfrikaAfrika, Asilia, Tourvest East Africa, etc. The highest potential for solar energy is with off-grid tourism facilities, where solar energy can displace diesel fuel. Solar energy systems can either be standalone with batteries for the smallest camps and lodges or can be coupled to the existing power supply configuring hybrid systems. The market for grid-connected hotels is now limited, as explained in section 2.3.1 on green buildings. Electricity tariff increases or favourable changes in policy can however change this in the short/medium term. Several tourism groups have shown interest in solar energy. Off-grid solar energy systems (including batteries) can reduce the overall cost of energy for the tourism sector but a number of constraints have up to date kept the market small: 45 High investment cost and risky nature of tourism business. Short return on investment is needed. Lack of long term financing instruments for solar energy Familiarity with gen-sets and lack of larger demonstrated PV systems, most tourism players view solar as second class solution Local system integration capacity; maintenance and back-up capabilities are low, especially in comparison with companies distributing generators. The solar PV market potential in the tourism sector can be estimated based upon installed genset capacity in off-grid lodges. Stand-alone solar energy systems can be a good solution for the smaller lodges (below 20 kVA) and hybrid systems will be preferred by larger facilities, where solar PV capacity is usually sized to provide from 30 to 60% of the total load. Based on these figures, the total market in the off-grid tourism sector can be estimated at 2 MWp. The potential for grid-connected systems in the tourism sector has been included in section 2.3.1 on Green buildings. Examples of tourism groups that have already invested in solar energy or are currently considering investment are Sopa Lodges, Elewana Afrika, Tourvest East Africa and AfrikaAfrika among others. More information on tourism groups of interest is provided in the annexed database. Additionally, the developing pipeline of the RTAP facility in Tanzania is said to include several projects from the tourism sector. Recommendations for German companies - Most of existing market will require retrofit. Best considered during planned hotel rehabs/refurbishment projects. - Rapid uptake for good quality solar PV and hybrid systems is possible once a “bold mover” can demonstrate proof of concept – this is demonstrated by previous experience with battery-back up systems - Financing solutions will be a key determinant, especially in high capital cost solar PV. The RTAP facility will play a major role in the dissemination of solar PV in the tourism industry. As indicated by Eric Outtara from Bank of Africa Tanzania, there already is high interest from the tourism sector in the upcoming facility. - Penetrate the existing market by work with larger tourism groups that have international partners and/or presence such as Serena, Sopa Lodges and Hotels and Lodges Tanzania Ltd. - Market for new hotels and lodges will require marketing and engagement with design teams (project managers, architects, consulting engineers) – currently more inclined towards traditional forms of supplying energy 4.3.6 Manufacturing sector The manufacturing sector represents 10.3% of Tanzania‟s GDP and includes a large variety of companies and products, such as food products, breweries, soft drinks, cement, steel, etc. 46 With 350 members, the Confederation of Tanzanian Industries (CTI) groups the largest players in the manufacturing sector, from large industries to SMEs. It is possibly the most relevant association to approach when looking for solar energy opportunities in the manufacturing sector. The KAM/RTAP facility for renewable energy is utilizing CTI as a leading partner in raising awareness and capacity building for renewables in the Tanzania industry. The main challenge in promoting renewable energies in the manufacturing sector is the low price of electricity in Tanzania, as most companies are grid-connected in Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Tanga, etc. (or connected to mini-grids managed by Tanesco). Tanesco tariffs for T2 and T3 customers (see chapter 1.4.) are as low as 0.08 and 0.07 USD/kWh respectively and make renewable energies an unattractive option. Potential tariff increases in the near future can uncap the potential for grid-connected solar PV in the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing industry is too varied in order to be thoroughly covered in this report and it is recommended to contact the Confederation of Tanzania Industries (CTI) to address the manufacturing sector as a whole. However, some players of interest are presented in Table 22. These are large players in the manufacturing business or industries that are known for being energy intensive. No analysis on energy consumption per type of industry has been performed in Tanzania, so the information in the table is based on estimates. The RTAP facility is expected to play a vital role in the promotion of renewables in the manufacturing sector. Table 22: Manufacturing sector players in Tanzania Company or group Industry Size METL is a large group in Tanzania with investments across a wide variety of sectors. In the manufacturing industry METL is active in the production of textiles, beverages, agro-processing, edible oils and soaps, food, sweeteners, grain milling and bicycles. MeTL Group contributes 2.5% of Tanzania‟s GDP with major investments and successful operating companies in all key business sectors. It employs over 20,000 people. Bakhresa Group / azam Agro-processing, food and beverages and packaging. Bakhresa Group is one of the leading Industrial Houses in Tanzania. The Group has a turnover of >600 million USD and employs > 5,000 people. Same as previous Tanzania Portland Cement Company Limited (TPCC) (Twiga cement) Cement The company remains the market leader in the cement industry in Tanzania. 670,000 tons p.a. (56% of market) and seeking to expand. Plant located 25km from Dar es Salaam. Grid-connected. Mohammed Enterprises Tanzania (METL) Energy Most if not all companies are gridconnected. Agro-processing businesses are better suited to incorporate bio-energy as clean energy rather than solar PV. Solar PV could however be incorporated as a pilot for grid-connect applications in industry or in their many CSR projects. Energy intensive, >20MW electric demand. 47 Other cement companies Tanzania Cigarette Company Cement Tobacco According to the PSMP Dangote Cement and Eagle Cement are to open new plants in Tanzania. Dangote Cement in Mtwara, 40MW, could connect to Mtwara minigrid in 2015 Largest cigarette manufacturer. Produces for domestic markets and exports to neighbouring countries. Factory is gridconnected; however it has 1.3 MW selfgeneration capacity with gensets. Solar PV proposed as fuel saver. Eagle cement, 20MW, Coastal region, in 2015 Very few companies obviously are interested in Solar PV, despite the non-exiting net-metering and the quite lower power tariffs. An example is Twiga cement: They plan to install a 5 MW solar PV system in addition to 3 MW diesel generators. GIZ provides Technical assistance to that project; the engineering company, which is in charge to design the system and to accompany the whole project, is NEO Energies GmbH, with an office in Tanzania. The procurement process will probably start in Autumn 2013. Another company, which is open to consider Solar PV solutions, is Tanga cement./ Simba Cement According to th annual report, production expenses increased by 59%, to which the power tariff increase of 40% in April 2012 significantly contributed. The unreliable supply of electricity throughout the year forced the company to make extensive use of its own power generating capacity in order to safeguard production, again significantly increasing production costs. Furthermore, Simba Cement implements a comprehensive Corporate Social Investment Programme for uplifting local communities, e.g. through improvement of infrastructure. Market opportunities, challenges and recommendations - Market size very difficult to predict since it will depend on future developments on policy for grid-connection of renewables and evolution of grid electricity prices. Market of 2-3 MW/year (after 2015?) easily identifiable. - Most projects will fall under the category of Small and medium scale Grid Connect, although some of the largest players could invest in the MW scale. - Main drivers are low quality, intermittent and high cost of grid power as well as Green power demand - Companies with comprehensive Corporate Social Investment Programms also provide windows of opportunities - There is an extremely low capacity to conduct energy audits - local clients are still not willing to pay what they consider to be high energy auditing costs. The RTAP facility will address this issue and promote the use of renewables. 48 4.3.7 Summary of underdeveloped market opportunities Table 23: Summary of underdeveloped market opportunities Sector Mining Market opportunity Several mines are offgrid, with grid connections expected several years after the start of operations. High cost of diesel at ca. 0.50 USD/kWh. Estimated market size ca. 30MWp opportunity of solar for hybridization of diesel power supply in off-grid locations. Opportunities in staff camps and CSR projects as well. Telecoms Hybridizing off-grid telecom towers to offset fuel cost. Green energy for offices, customer centres and warehouses. Manufacturing Most industry is grid-connected. Main driver is low quality of grid power as well as green power demand. Electricity price increase in the near future can spark demand. Construction (Green buildings) Demand for green energy in urban grid-connected areas. Main driver is Opportunities in SHS or mini-grid power infrastructure for small-holder farmers and large farming operations with employee villages. Potential for solar PV More than a dozen mines which could benefit from energy cost reductions using solar hybrid systems. Challenges Competing with promised grid connections with very low cost of electricity (0.07 USD/kWh) Very high investment cost Gold mines minimizing investment in current low gold price situation The market potential for retrofitting existing sites is of 16 MWp and the potential for new sites is of 3.5 MWp per annum Few players in the market (3 mobile network operators), one tower company and a few service providers. Large and well financed players needed given the large infrastructure of telecom sector. Market of 2-3 MW/year (after 2015?) easily identifiable. Several players in the industrial sector Policy barriers and low cost of grid electricity Several players in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Policy barriers and low cost of grid electricity Several large farming groups or associations of smallholding farmers. Competition with market of cheap and low quality “over the counter” SHS. Market of 2-3 MW/year (after 2015?) easily identifiable. low quality of grid power as well as green power demand. Electricity price increase in the near future can spark demand. Agriculture Number of opportuniti es Market >2MWp for household energy 49 in water pumping. Other productive use of solar PV (milling, drying, etc.) is limited. 5. Engagement and positioning of German companies Although Kenya is seen as a “hub” of business in East Africa, Tanzania has some advantages that make it an attractive long-term location for the development of business. First, it has a stable political climate and has enjoyed continued economic growth for over a decade. Secondly, it has had long traditional ties with Germany. Thirdly, the large off-grid areas make solar PV attractive in more economically active areas than in Kenya --- both in stand-alone systems and as part of mini- and microgrids. Finally, the PV market in Tanzania is much less congested than the Kenya market; it would be easier for a company to gain part of the market than in the competitive Kenya market. There is ample room the Tanzania market --- however, there is a need to create the space for quality and there is a need to educate Governments and key consumers that solar is not only for the poor. The wind energy sector in Tanzania is developing in the utility-scale segment, with 150 MW in the pipeline (Singida). The investors in the Singida projects (Geo Wind Power and Wind East Africa) are planning on future expansions (to 300 MW and 200 MW respectively) if the first phase succeeds. The on-going wind resource assessments in Tanzania should create opportunities for the development of wind in other regions, both in the utility-scale segment as well as off-grid installations. The engagement of German companies in the solar Pv and wind power market in Tanzania is not yet so strong as in Kenya. A part of the firms, which do business in Kenya, is also active in Tanzania: Table 26: German companies with engagement in Tanzania Company Engagement Energiebau Solarstromsysteme Energiebau plans and installs grid-connected and off-grid Solar PV systems as well as Solar PV-hybrid ones, turnkey provider of offgrid system for 30 years, Local cooperation partner Solar works Kenya Solar PV-hybrid system for electrification of the Convent of Vincentian Sisters, Mbinga/Tansania (Roy Family Award der Harvard University, 2007) Donauer Solartechnik Distribution, project development, engineering, installation, O&M services, consulting Represented in Kenya/ East Africa by Harmonic Systems Ltd. (http://www.harmonicafrica.com/) , since 2012 Juwi Juwi is a project developer and an EPC, also in the field of off-grid solar power supply systems e.g. Tanzania, Village electrification:11 kWp system and Mini-grid for 100 households. Extension to 33 kWp and 400 households foreseen 50 MobiSol Markets, monitors and finances SHS through use of mobile money platforms (Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda) SolarKiosk This sells products and services in rural areas (e.g. charging mobile phones, batteries, lamps; services such as cooling, internet and communication). Products such as pico-systems and SHS are sold as well. At least 1 SolarKiosk has been in Tanzania. Source: German Energy Desk German solar companies need to do in Africa what they did in Germany: bring solar to the center of energy discussions. Currently, solar energy is seen as a power source for the off-grid poor. This perception hinders the solar industry development because a) it has put a ceiling on the development of PV power as a source for commercial, household and urban markets and b) the low-cost requirements of the “access”-markets have driven out German players and created room for lower quality suppliers from Asia. There is room for everyone in the markets --- however, there is a need to create the space for quality and there is a need to educate Governments and key consumers, that solar are not only for the poor. Key strategy points for German companies include the following: Develop products that meet the unique needs of the East African market: German grid-connect products do not adequately address the demand for products that can both supply power and survive frequent power cuts. They have not been adequately marketed to consumers that need long-life and flexible off-grid solutions. The adaptation of products and business concepts is promoted by German funds such as the CLIENT Programme of the BMBF, but also by broader funds such as the ZIM (Zentrales Innovationsprogramm Mittelstand) of the BMWi. “Make the difference”, create a special value-added to the customers: o Benefit from the “made-in-Germany” reputation and sell the benefits of quality: Many German products are high cost but worth the high cost. There is a need to match German quality capabilities with existing demand for quality among consumers. Especially in the solar PV market, the reputation of solar energy has been affected to some extent by many bad quality products. For that reason, quality assurance initiative such as Lighting Africa are very important. German companies bring also in their expertise in these quality initiatives. o Contributing to the trainings on solar PV. German companies can bring in their expertise in the existing and upcoming training infrastructure on Solar PV and Wind. They can also initiate further trainings, in cooperation with local institutions as well as German vocational training institutions. 51 o Coming not only with the product and the solution, but also with a business model: One of the crucial challenges in Tanzania is the financing of the upfront investment costs. Leasing models or the pay-as-you-use model, which MobiSol runs, helps to reduce these costs. Of course, ESCO-models are also attractive for the clients because they just face running costs, while the investments are done by the energy service provider. Maintenance is also the challenge very often, which can be addressed by proper business models: In case of the installation of a solar PV and/ or wind system for a health centre/ dispensary for instance, the facility could be used as load centre, which also offers mobile charging against a fee. Thus, the dispensary gets revenues to finance the maintenance of the system. German companies could use the CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility ) programmes of some companies for developing a proper business model:The largest companies in the mining, telecom, tourism and manufacturing sector have active CSR programs that can include the provision of energy to off-grid communities in the areas where they operate. E.g. GSMA is pushing forward the development of energy and water services through the mobile telecom infrastructure. In the mining sector, Shanta Gold has expressed interest in developing solar energy for a nearby community. o Supporting the client to get access to finance: This is the most important key to do business in the market. German companies should inform about available funds, linking the client up to these ones and even support him in the communication and acquisition of funds. Following table summarizes some of the relevant funds: Table 25: Sources for financing solar PV and wind projects Agency/Project Type of Description of Project Activities Project or Company African Enterprise Challenge Fund Project-based interventions AFD/KAM RTAP Credit line Responsibility DFID Green Energy Equity Fund East Africa (upcoming) Donor project Regional private sector program supports private companies to invest in innovative renewable-based solutions that help to increase energy access. Project receives support from a variety of donors and holds regular regional competitions for private companies. $30M AFD Private sector program to support commercial energy efficiency and renewable investments through lowinterest loans Credits are finally provided by the partner banks Stanbic and Coop. - Target 40 – 50 Mio. USD; investment of energy entrepreneurs and of Renewable Energy projects. - First closure: expected for autumn 2013 - Equity contribution by average 2 – 4 Mio. USD/ project, around 25% of overall project volume - Up to now, no solar PV projects among the projects with completed feasibility study, - But fund is open for Solar PV projects, e.g. contributing equity to ESCO who is investing in Solar PV system and supplies the power Developing major regional investment project to support renewable energy powered mini-grid investments: - Minimum 50 Mio. British Pounds East Africa 52 - - - International Green Mini-Grids Promotion Fund support to feasibility studies and preparatory work, support to evaluation Multi-Country Loan and PGR Fund providing long tenor senior debt + partial risk guarantee on off-taker default Country-specific Project Development and Impact Fund Support to project development, support to community mobilization, support to end-user finance o The export credit scheme (including a cover) is one of the most important financing instruments, German companies and especially the responsible of business development and sales should know very well. The cover offers protection against borrower‟s failure to make payment within 1 month after due time, other commercial risks (e.g. insolvency) as well as political risks (e.g. warlike events). The lending bank acts as policyholder. Euler Hermes Deutschland AG and PricewaterhouseCoopers manage the official export credit guarantee scheme on behalf of the Federal Government. Euler Hermes acts as leading partner in this consortium. In contrast to a supplier‟s credit, the export credit has the advantage that the lending bank negotiates the terms and conditions with the borrower (foreign buyer or bank). Know. The German suppliers should ask already quite early a lending bank (e.g. house bank) to prepare a preliminary financial proposal, which the German supplier can take along with his technical proposal to meetings with the (potential) buyer. This saves time and increases the interest of the clients significantly. Import-Export Banks like the American one or the Chinese one are very fast and usually the client follows the FirstComes-First-Serves-Approach. The following table shows the recommended procedure: Table 26: Recommended procedure Activity Responsible Gathering rough information about the project, e.g. : Supplier - Overall order volume Potential client (private or public; if private maybe already balance sheet/ annual report) … Check with potential lending bank the eligibility of the project/ order for export credit financing (and respective cover) (maybe supported by local partner or German Chamber of Commerce) Supplier with lending bank; lending bank with Euler Hermes (for the cover) Rough estimation of terms and conditions (loan duration, interest rate, premium rate for cover etc.) First visit/ meeting with the potential client, technical presentations (together with the preliminary information about financing opportunity) Supplier/ Buyer Request for detailed project description and other information needed for detailed technical and financial Supplier (if needed with support of 53 proposal German Chamber of Commerce in target country) Submitting the detailed technical and financial proposal to client Supplier Follow-up Supplier Negotiation and loan agreement between lending bank and buyer Lending bank Closing export contract Supplier/ Buyer Applying for credit cover Lending Bank Source: German Energy Desk The cover policy (premium rate for cover included) differs from country to country and depends on the risk category of the respective country. Tanzania is in category 6. The cover Policy is as follows: Table 27: German cover policy for Tanzania Parameter/ Category Description Short-Term credits There are no formal restrictions on cover Medium-/ long term Cover facilities are available for smaller transactions on a caseby-case basis, in particular foreign exchange-generating projects of private buyers. Collateral If the foreign buyer‟s creditworthiness is inadequate, bank security is required. Country risk category 6 Source: http://www.agaportal.de/en/aga/deckungspolitik.html There is no clear definition of “smaller” transaction (from experience estimated to be < 10 Mio. €). That does not mean, that transactions of higher volume are not possible to be covered. But it becomes probably more complicated and requires more argumentation. The basic issues of the cover policy is decided by an Interministerial Committee (IMC) and in case of higher volume transactions, maybe it can be of help to contact the Federal Ministry of Economics (BMWi), which has the lead function. The premium risk for the cover is calculated in consideration of the risk category of the country and the repayment term of credit, i.e. that it has to be calculated from case-to-case. The interest rate of the credit is fixed according to the XXX. Important requirement of a German export credit and credit cover is, that usually 70% of the order volume has to come originally from Germany (German content). Components manufactured by subsidiaries of a German company abroad, are not considered as part of the German content. Engage the Government and international donors: Actively support and participate in the policy dialogue with local partners. The Government of Tanzania 54 (e.g. ewura as regulatory commission and the Rural Energy Agency) has been seeking international partners and allows private approaches from investing companies. GIZ as well as DFID intend to strongly promote the involvement of the private sector in the investment and operation of RE systems. German companies should keep an eye on opportunities which may result from these development cooperation programmes: Concerns and ideas of German suppliers e.g. about licensing procedures, quality assurance, technical best practices etc. can be fed in the existing and upcoming policy advisory mechanism. Approach government and administration on local level: With regard to public facilities it is difficult for German companies to get contracts through public tenders; however, it is advisable to contact directly for instance district officers (e.g. district medical officers for local health stations): They have the power to decide about the allocation of financial means. Experiences show, that they are willing to spend money, if they are convinced about the advantages of a Solar PV system e.g. for health stations. “Shaping the demand”: Some market segments such as the small/ medium grid-connect one are still “sleeping”, which requires a pro-active approach. For example, grid connect, though not active yet, will be an important market in the long term. Those players that get the first projects are likely to continue to enjoy a strong position in the developing sector. German companies have to approach potential clients, especially from private sectors such as mining, tourism, telecoms and construction sector and offer them to calculate the case. They should help local partners to “educate” potential clients on the technical and financial benefits of solar PV and wind systems. Besides that, German companies can generate the demand through contributing to policy advice: they can actively support and participate in the policy dialogue with local partners. Another channel which has already been mentioned is the training of stakeholders in the public and private sector. In this context, they can cooperate with strategic partners such as TAREA (Tanzania Renewable Energy Association). TAREA is an extremely well-run members association which actively promotes its members interests and holds regular sector-building events. Selecting very carefully local partners (e.g. for installation and service as well as for business development): Seek high-end partners as suppliers (often these are new entrants to the market). Old players are often no adapt to the rapidly changing new PV environment and continue to follow the old off-the-shelf/Government procurement routes which do not favour high quality products. In addition, it can be useful to look not only for those companies which already have solar PV and wind products and solutions in their portfolio; there are suppliers of electrical equipment (e.g. of diesel generators, electric drives etc.) which are maybe interested in diversifying and have a good network to clients, which are also of relevance for solar PV and wind. Recognize that African markets take time to develop. If you cannot participate over the long term, this may not be a market that is of interest. For taking the necessary time to develop the business, it is advisable to look for possibilities to limit the requirements at profits. This can be done for instance 55 through the approach to establish a foundation. The SOLidarity of Energiebau Solarstromsysteme is one example. Stick to the sector you have targeted. Do not try to do everything. 6. Key market players The attached database contains information on the main players in the solar PV and wind energy sectors. Other players in the decentralized power supply market (such as genset distributors) are also included in the analysis since they can provide valuable access to the market. Solar PV There are about 30 companies in the Solar PV sector that have been recommended by the Tanzania Renewable Energy Association (TAREA). These include projects developers, wholesalers and distributors. There is consensus that the largest companies in terms of sales of solar PV equipment are Rex Energy (awarded the Kigoma MCC project in 2012, the largest PV project in Tanzania up to the time of writing) and Ensol. These two companies work as project developers and started operations 12 years ago. Most of their projects are funded by donors, NGOs or the government. Zara Solar is an active wholesaler with a strong presence in the Mwanza/Lake Victoria Basin. Other companies with a strong presence in the professional solar PV market include Voltzon and Helvetic Solar. These companies are younger and smaller than the previous. Most of their projects are in the private sector, having completed installations in the tourism and residential sectors among others. With regards to the companies active in the wholesale market for SHS and picosystems, the most prominent examples are Zara Solar, SHS-wholesaler with a strong presence in the Mwanza/Lake Victoria Basin and Solar Aid/Sunny Money, a distributor of solar portable lights Utility-scale project developers were mentioned in section 1.2 and are NextGen Solawazi and Windpower Serengeti, both developing MW-scale projects to connect to existing Tanesco mnigrids under the SPPA framework. The attached database provides information on the 10-15 most important players in the solar PV field. Aside of these companies the sector is very fragmented with lots of new entrants. Wind energy There are only a few players in the wind energy field. In the field of off-grid small scale wind energy there are two active companies in Tanzania, Windpower Serengeti and REDCOT. Both of these companies are however small players. In the utility-scale wind power, two large projects totalling 150MW are currently in the pipeline and were mentioned in section 1.2. They are Geo Windpower and Wind East Africa. The attached database provides additional information on these players. 56 Genset distributors The three leading players in the distribution of generators are Mantrac Tanzania, Merrywater and Plustronics. Mantrac Tanzania Ltd. is the sole authorized dealer for Caterpillar products in Tanzania and has an extensive branch network that includes a head office in Dar Es Salaam and branches in Mwanza, Moshi and Tanga. Merrywater is the sole authorized distributor for Tanzania Mainland and Zanzibar of FG Wilson Ltd of the United Kingdom, the largest manufacturer of generators in Europe and a 100% subsidiary of Caterpillar Inc. Finally, Plustronics distributes AJ Power (United Kingdom) generators. Plustronics recently partnered with Sollatek to provide solar hybrid solutions. Other than the three main players mentioned above, the distribution of generators is fragmented with lots of new entrants from China, Turkey and South Africa. In addition to the distribution of generators, companies such as Plustronics and Sincronicity Power provide operational leases of generators as well as operation and maintenance services. Sincronicity Power refuels and maintains the power infrastructure of Helios Towers, which currently owns all towers used by telecom company Tigo. They also supply prime and back-up power to hotels and other private sector players. More information and genset distributors can be found in the annexed database. 57 7. Annexes Annex 1: List of Players RET companies. Company Contact Person. Contacts Web Address Business Focus Company Strategy Comments Solar Energy Rex Investments Francis Khabisa Managing Director +255 713 607533 f.kibhisa@rexsolarenergy.com www.rexsolarenergy. com Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and electrical installation works Recently completed the Kigoma MCC project, the largest PV project in Tanzania (275 kWp total ) Hamisi Mkate Managing Director +255 754 694 413 http://www.ensol.co.t z/ Solar PV, SWH and Battery back-up systems. Service provider. Leading solar energy contractor. Clients in public sector (education, health, rural electrification) as well as private (hotels, lodges). System integrator and installer. Mostly projects in 1-10kWp for donors, NGOs and government Voltzon Pepijn Steemers Commercial Director +255 752 904 043 psteemers@gmail.com www.voltzon.com Solar energy systems for tourism, residential sector and institutions. System integrators and installers. Several projects in the private (residentail, tourism) and public sectors Helvetic Solar Patrick Ngowi CEO patrick@helveticsolar.com http://helveticsolar.co m/ Wide range of solar energy products. From pico to kW scale. Clients include private sector, government and donors. Retail sales, wholesale supplier, importer, distributor, system integrators and installers. Active in Northern Circuit of Tanzania. Ensol hmikate@ensol.co.tz 58 Sales in the order of 200 kWp/year, upward trend Zara Solar Eng. Parpia Mohammed +255 754229162 http://www.zarasolar.com SHS and pico-SHS zarasolar@yahoo.com Wholesale, 2 branches, Dar es Salaam and Mwanza Zara Solar won the Ashden Award for renewable energies in 2007 and the World Bank Lighting Africa Award in 2008. In 2010 Zara Solar also won the Lighting Rural Tanzania competition. Andrew Soper General Manager +255 787 737 463 www.sollatek.co.tz Wholesale of power control equipment and project developer for solar PV. Recently partnered with diesel genset distributor Plustronics. Recently completed a 30 kWp project for the UN Carbon X Naeem Mawji CEO: +255 787 623 366 Chair:+255 754 770 780 info@carbonxenergy.com www.carbonxenergy. com System integrator. Solar Kits for SHS, Solar Energy Systems, Solar Modules, Charge Controllers, Solar Lights, Different range of high quality Batteries. Solar-PV and hybrid mini-grid systems for rural electrification Davis & Shirtliff Ellison Malyi +255 773 318 827 www.dayliff.com Chloride Exide Mr. Gabriel Odongo Sollatek andrew.soper@sollatek.co.tz Ellison@mwz.tzdayliff.com +255 756 776493 gabriel@chlorideexide.co.tz http://www.cekl.com Rural electrification, fee for service model. Pilot stage. Winner of Lighting Rural Tanzania 2010. Supply and installation of Solar PV, Solar Pumps and Wind Pumps Battery based systems and SHS 59 Aqua solar Mr. Mitha Naeem +255 656 684551; +255 788303066 naeem@aquasolartz.com Green Energy for Africa Enterprise Dr. Frank Boris Thiesen +491741707555, 0654878727, +255 719004411 Power 4 Africa Mr. Hooda Bob Power Providers Co. Ltd. Clive Jones Managing Director +255 787 847969 Renerg (T) Ltd. Mr. Ndunguru Deodatus +255 764 658634 info@renerg.de,deodatusndung ur u@yahoo.com frank@dr-thiesen.de +255 754 394844 info@power4africa.de http://www.aquasolart z.com/ http://www.greenenergy-forafrica.com http://www.power4afri ca.de/ Solar Power Contractors, Importers and Resellers. Products: Solar Water Pumping systems, Solar Back-Up, Solar Micro Products, Solar Hot Water Systems, Solar Street Lights Projecting with Solar power, Wind Power, Micro hydro power. Installing solar power for houses, compounds, clinics, businesses, NGO's, and other institutions. Completed solar water pumping projects and a 5kWp system for a private sector institution in Dar es Salaam Consultancy, Planning, Installation and Maintanance of Renewable Energy Systems. Partnership in national and international Development Programms. Start-up in very early stage of development. Project developer Developing a 1MWp solar farm in Moshi Distributor of Lorentz. Active in the tourism sector. clive@powerproviders.co.tz http://www.renergtanzania.de Socially orientated company, providing installation and maintenance of PV solar systems in the rural areas of Tanzania. Has completed several off-grid installations in public facilities 60 Wind Energy Windpower Serengeti Redcot (Renewable Energy Development Company Tanzania) Genset Distributors Mantrac Tanzania Merrywater Arthur J. Karomba Director +255 784 688 094 arthurkaromba@yahoo.com www.windpowerserengeti.com Mr Julius Kilimo +255 732 996 869 www.redcot.co.tz info@redcot.co.tz Small wind turbine manufacturer and developing a 1MWp solar plant to connect to Mpanda minigrid Supplier of renewable energy products, especially wind turbines James Serre +255 0741 234 470 jserre@mantractanzania.com www.mantractanzania.c om Mantrac Tanzania Ltd. is the sole authorized dealer for Caterpillar Products in Tanzania. Henrik S. Nielsen Resident Manager & Power Division henrik@merrywater.de http://www.merrywater.c o.tz/ Merrywater is the sole authorized distributor for Tanzania Mainland and Zanzibar of FG Wilson Ltd of the United Kingdom, the largest manufacturer of generators in Europe and a 100% subsidiary of Caterpillar Inc. 61 Plustronics Sincronicity Power Nagib Delaware Technical Director +255 784 877 770 Mark Foley CEO +255 716 500 902 nagib@plustronics.com mark.foley@sincrositewatch. com http://www.plustronics.c om/ Distribution of generators and power supply (18 kVA to 1 MW) http://www.sincrosite watch.com/ Power supply to telecom industry (Helios Towers) and other private sector clients (e.g. hotels) Distribution to NGOs, banks, hotels, embassies, etc. Recently partnered with Sollatek to provide solar hybrid solutions. No major advances though. Sale of 100-200 units per year, mostly in the 18-30 kVA range. Developing business plan for rural utilities powered by solar energy 62 Projects Company/ Organization Contact Person Contacts Symbion & MultiEquipment Engineering Services Peter Gathercole Symbion & MultiEquipment Engineering Services SWECO Derek Phillips +255 754785340 peter.gathercole@symbion-power.com petergathercole@jaag.biz, petergathercole@ymail.com +25576630335 derek.philips@mees.co.tz Camco Jeff Felten Managing Director +255 763 821 315 michael.sulzer@sweco.se +255 758 178 120 jeff.felten@camcoglobal.com Confederation of Tanzanian Industry (CTI) Mrs. Christine kilindu, Executive Director +255744404161 christineKilindu@cti.co.tz Neema Mhondo Director of Membership Development and Communication +255 714 498 523 neema@cti.co.tz Web Address Solar/ wind Business Focus africa.camcoglobal.com Consultant. Conduceted feasibility study for 50MWp PV plant in Shinyanga. www.cti.co.tz Industry association with 350 members. Partner in the RTAP project to promote renewables in industry. General Resource Experts & Consulting Tanzania Chamber of Commerce, industry and Agriculture (TCCIA) Michael Sulzer Daniel Machemba, Executive Director Large Scale Power Generation 63 Wind East Africa Rashid Shamte Founder and Head of Group Strategy at Six Telecoms Geo Wind Power Mr. Gideon John Nasari (National Development Corporation) Managing Director and CEO at NDC Mayank Bhargava Managing Director Mayank Bhargava Managing Director 1-703-249-2381 bhargava@nextgensolar.net 1-703-249-2381 bhargava@nextgensolar.net Windpower Serengeti Arthur J. Karomba Director +255 784 688 094 arthurkaromba@yahoo.com www.windpower-serengeti.com Energio Verda Africa Ltd. Frederic Morel Managing Director +255 772 937895 frederic.morel@energioverda.com www.energioverda.com Project developer in wind and solar Camco Jeff Felten Managing Director +255 758 178 120 jeff.felten@camcoglobal.com africa.camcoglobal.com Consultant. Conduceted feasibility study for 50MWp PV plant in Shinyanga. Symbion Power (IPP) Peter Gathercole CEO +255 689 118 731 peter.gathercole@symbion-power.com www.symbion-power.com Jacobsen Elektro AS (IPP) Wartsila Tanzania (IPP) Shaun Moore Project Manager Jaska Kaihua Country Contract Manager +255 689906239 Richard Kasesela, Chairman Chairman +255 767777151 rkasesela@gmail.com NextGen Solar LLC NextGen Solawazi Developing 100MW wind park in Singida with Aldwych International, Six Telecoms and IFC +255-22-2112893 gnasari@ndc.go.tz +255 754788113 jaakko.kaihua@wartsila.com Mining Sector Mining Advisory Board, Ministry of Energy and Minerals 64 Developing 50MW with IFC, Adwych and Six Telecoms Setting up a 2 MWp solar power plant connected to the Tanesco minigrid in Kigoma Small wind turbine manufacturer and developing a 1MWp solar plant to connect to Mpanda minigrid Chamber of Energy and Mines Emmanuel Jengo +255 713 322 692 immaj@chamberofmines.org www.chamberofmines-tz.com Shanta Gold Steve Quigley Administration Manager +255 767200462 steveq@shantagold.com www.shantagold.com 1 site off-grid. Looking for alternatives to reduce energy cost by 30%. Considering 1MWp solar. African Barrick Gold Shailendr Yadav +255 767565672 Syadav@africanbarrickgold.com www.africanbarrickgold.com Completed study on solar power for one Tanzania mine (Buzwagi). Not progressing due to the priority ranking in the current low gold price climate. African Barrick Gold Deo Mwanyika +255 757 279 708 dmwanyika@africanbarrickgold.com www.africanbarrickgold.com African Barrick Gold Nic Schoeman Director Operations Support www.africanbarrickgold.com AngloGold Ashanti Gary Davies Managing Director +27 83 650 0994 (SA) +255 767 338 812 (Tnz) nschoeman@africanbarrickgold.com +254 754 210122 www.anglogold.com 1 off-grid gold mine in TZ (Geita) Kabanga Nickel Kevin Olshefsky General Manager +255 767 566 602 kolshefsky@xstratanickel.ca www.xstratanickel.com 1 site in feasibility stage, potential for solar to hybridize power Williamson Diamonds Ltd. Charl Barnard Country Manager and General Manager Dir: 028 2763850,0754 643596 028 2763849,0754 208614 028 2763853,0784 540166 255 22 2151609,2152170 www.petradiamonds.com Williamson Mine is gridconnected Mantra Uranium ASA MWAIPOPO Country Manager Panafrican Group Chris Hoppe Group Technical Director The site will commence operations off-grid +254 716431092 c.hoppe@panafricangroup.com www.panafricangroup.com 65 Tourism Baobob Selous Nomad Grumeti Reserves Foxes Safari Camp John Fox or Bruce fox@tanzaniasafaris.info, fox@safaricamps.info, operations@safaricamps.info Coastal Group Conservation Corporation Africa Serena Sopa Lodges Mike Sanders +255 782 333 555 www.sopalodges.com msanders@elewana.com Elewana Afrika Mike Sanders +255 782 333 555 http://elewanacollection.com/ msanders@elewana.com Kirurumu Hotels and Lodges Tanzania Ltd Moivaro Asilia Tanganyika Wilderness Camps Willy Chambulo Managing Director +255 784 281 170 wildwilly@tanganyikawildernesscamps. com Tourvest East Africa Tom Yule Regional Director +254 716 511 324 tom@tourvesteastafrica.com tanganyikawildernesscamps.com 66 AfrikaAfrika http://www.afrikaafrikasafaris.co m/ The Anasa Safari Collection www.anasasafaris.com Green Buildings Architectural Pioneering Consultants Ltd. IPA Architects Tanzania Dark Gummich CCBRT Hospital Susan Boone International School of Tanzania Martin Shaw Tigo HQ Kerion Barnes Infrastructure manager Twiga Cement Heidelberger (D. Gummich's contact) John Kelly http://www.apc-tz.com/ Green buildings for private sector www.ipatanzania.com Green buildings for several sectors of economy (government, biand milti-lateral agencies, industry, residential, etc. info@ipatanzania.com + 255 713 123 740 kerion.barnes@tigo.co.tz Efficiency in HQ to reduce energy consumption by 30% Contractors Registration Board Tanzania Keeps the construction industry informed of new developments in the construction business in Tanzania, the East African region and the world at large. Opportunity for trainings in solar PV in green buildings? Telecom 67 Vodacom Tigo Kerion Barnes Infrastructure manager + 255 713 123 740 kerion.barnes@tigo.co.tz Solar energy for base stations, sales points, warehouses, etc. Airtel Jackson Mmbando Public Relations Manager Helios Towers Tanzania (HTT) Simon Payne CTO Helios Towers Tanzania (HTT) Martin Perks CFO mperks@heliostowersafrica.com Helios Towers Tanzania (HTT) Yusuph Magessa Operations Manager +255 658 880 032 Ymagesa@httanzania.com www.heliostowersafrica.com Helios Towers Tanzania (HTT) Joseph Mgullo Deputy Network Operations Director +255 658 880 170 Jmgullo@httanzania.com www.heliostowersafrica.com Sincro Sitewatch Mark Foley CEO +255 716 500 902 mark.foley@sincrositewatch.com www.sincrositewatch.com www.heliostowersafrica.com www.heliostowersafrica.com Manufacturing Mohammed Enterprises Tanzania (METL) http://www.metl.net/ Bakhresa Group http://bakhresa.com/ 68 Airtel is greening their sites in Tanzania, Inauguration of first solar hybrid site in Sept 2012 Owner of towers of Tigo, potential for hybridization with solar. Owner of towers of Tigo, potential for hybridization with solar. Interested in developing ESCO model for telecoms and surrounding communities incorporating solar energy Tanzania Portland Cement Company Limited (TPCC) (Twiga cement) Tanga cement Mr.Onesmo Kitomari Confederation of Tanzanian Industries (CTI) Neema Mhondo Director of Membership Development and Communication +255 714 498 523 neema@cti.co.tz www.cti.co.tz Agriculture Mohammed Enterprises Tanzania (METL) Tanzanian Horticulture Association (TAHA) http://www.metl.net/ Jacqueline Mkindi, Executive director ed.taha@habari.co.tz Flower and Coffee grower Greg Emmanuel (contact from Peter Gathercole) Tobacco Project Morogoro Peter Gathercole suggestion Tanzania Chamber of Commerce, industry and Agriculture (TCCIA) Daniel Machemba, Exceutive Director +255 787 439 282 Rural Electrification (Government Led) USAID Schools Project MCC Kigoma Clusters Project EU Eric Youngrin (Solar Nexus) Developer Jeff Felten (Camco) Developer +255 758 178 120 jeff.felten@camcoglobal.com Jeff Felten (Camco) Developer +255 758 178 120 jeff.felten@camcoglobal.com 69 Industry association with 350 members. Partner in the RTAP project to promote renewables in industry. Rural Electrification (Commercial) Carbon X CEO: +255 787 623 366 Chair:+255 754 770 780 info@carbonxenergy.com www.carbonxenergy.com Solar-PV and hybrid minigrid systems for rural electrification Frederic Morel Managing Director +255 772 937895 frederic.morel@energioverda.com www.energioverda.com Project developer in wind and solar Agency Contact Person Contacts Tatedo Estomih Sawe Executive Director Cell: +255 787 289 868 edirector@tatedo.org TAREA Matthew Matimbwi Executive Secretary +255 715 993 755 matimbwi@tarea-tz.org, matimbwi@gmail.com www.tarea-tz.org +44 (0)20 7278 0400 info@solar-aid.org info@solar-aid.org +44 (0)7917 046588 FMottakin@gsma.com www.gsma.com/greenpower Energio Verda Africa Ltd. NGOs Solar Aid GSMA Ferdous Mottakin Programme Manager, Green Power for Mobile Web Address 70 Solar Business Focus Government Agency Contact Person Contacts Ministry of Energy and Minerals (MEM) Ministry of Energy and Minerals (MEM) Eleakim Maswi Permanent Secretary Edward Ishengoma Assistant Commissioner, Renewable Energies ps@mem.go.tz 255 755 898679 e_leonardishe@yahoo.com, edward.ishengoma@mem.go.tz Mr. James Andilile Assistant Commissioner for Energy Development Teil: + 255 22 2135159, Mob.:+255 759804559, 255 783937716 andilile@gmail.com Sam Mgweno +255 754 651364 Samuel.mgweno@gmail.com Web Address Hosea Mbise TANESCO Eng, Emmanual Manirabona, Manager Projects T&D Eng. Felchesmi J. Mramba, Deputy Managing Director, Distribution & Customer Services Francis M. Maze, Manager Large Power Users Mob: +255 763511182 emmanuel.manirabona@tanesco.co.tz Mob +255 767042009 felchesmi.mramba@tanesco.co.tz Mob. +255 762450226 francis.maze@tanesco.co.tz 71 Eng. Sophia S. Mgonja, Senior Manager Distribution Rural Energy Agency (REA)/ Rural Energy Fund (REF) EWURA, regulatory body Mwakahesya Lutengano Director General Mob +255 767902 312 sophia.mgonja@tanesco.co.tz +255 784291801 lmwakahesya@rea.go.tz Anastas Mbawala mbawala@ewura.go.tz Haruna Masebu masebu@ewura.go.tz National Environment Management Council Godfrey Chibulunje Commercial Manager Electricity Ephata Ole-Lolubo Principal Economist Cell: +255 688 255 707 chibulunje@ewura.go.tz Cell: +255 784 256 124 lolubo@ewura.go.tz Ng'anzi Kiboko Principal Commercial Officer Electricity James Ngeleja Principle Environment Management Officer Cell: +255 784 204 730 kiboko@ewura.go.tz Cell: +255 713 785 193 jlngeleja@gmail.com Donor and Finance NAME Contact Person John McIntire GIZ KfW Dr. Regine Qualmann Wolfgang Solzbacher CONTACTS Cell: 255 784 411137 255 754788225 regine.qualmann@giz.de wolfgang.solzbacher@kfw.de Office: +255 22 21 28 1-89 / 90 SIDA UNDP 72 Donor Coordination Samer al-Fayadh Chair of energy donors samer.al-fayadh@gov.se Botschaft Claudia Imwolde-Kraemer Counsellor - Development Cooperation wz-2@dare.auswaertiges-amt.de Phone: +255-22-2117409/15 Finance Bank of Africa Tanzania Eric Ouattara Deputy General Manager mob +255783625222 eric.ouattara@boatanzania.com Sikudhani Mayalla Assistant Manager, Corporate department mob +255756962022 sikudhani.mayalla@boatanzania.com CRDB National Microfinance Bank 73 Annex 2: Bibliography and Resources A1 Bibliography Bank of Tanzania, ECONOMIC BULLETIN FOR THE QUARTER ENDING DECEMBER, 2012 Bertheau, Paul (paul.bertheau@rl-institut.de) “Geographic, technological and economic analysis of isolated diesel grids to assess the upgrading potential with renewable energies: A case study of Tanzania” Reiner-Lemoine-Institut, Berlin, Germany 2013. Energy Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (EWURA) Order: Standardized SPPT Tariff , 2012, EWURA (website http://www.tanesco.co.tz electricity charges) GSMA. “Powering Telecoms: East Africa Market Analysis. Sizing the Potential for Green Telecoms in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda”, GSMA 2012 Ministry of Energy and Minerals (2003). “The National Energy Policy.”Feb,2003. Ministry of Energy and Minerals (2005). “The Rural Energy Act, 2005.” Ministry of Energy and Minerals (2008). “The Electricity Act, 2008.” Ministry of Energy and Minerals (2012). “Power Master Plan 2012 Update.”Feb.2013 Ministry of Energy and Minerals Scaling-Up Renewable Energy Programme (2012) “Investment Plan for Tanzania.” 21st Apr.2013. Tanzania Renewable Energy Association. Report on Tanzania Solar PV Market Trends Study for Years 2008 and 2009: Status of Solar PV Dealers in Tanzania Recruited by Sida/MEM Solar PV Project. (AUGUST, 2010) Tanzania Renewable Energy Association (TAREA), member directory 2013-14. Tanzania Tourist Board (http://www.tanzaniatouristboard.com/), THE LIST OF LICENSED TOURISM OPERATORS FOR 2013 Interviews and websites of sector players. See database. Websites/Press release http://www.tanesco.co.tz/ electricity charges http://www.gsma.com/.../wp.../GSM_Vendor_Landscape_EastAfrica_V5.pdf http://www.gsma.com/.../wp-content/.../GPM-Market-Analysis-East-Africa-v3.pdf 74 A4. Selection of Anticipated Major Loads in Tanzania (from PSMP) Load Capacity (MW) Location Expected Online Kabanga – Nickel 32 Kagera 2016 Mibongo – Gold 20 Kigoma 2016 Ntaka Hill – Nickel 30 Lindi 2018 Dangote Cement plant 40 Mtwara 2015 Panda Hill – Gold 5 Mbeya 2016 Buckreef – Gold 8 Geita 2015 Geita – Gold 30 Geita 2015 Mchuchuma – Iron Smelter 100 Iringa 2018 Golden Ridge - Gold 7 Shinyanga 2015 Dutwa – Nickel 10 Shinyanga 2015 Bulyanhulu – Gold 20 Shinyanga 2013 Textile Mill 30 Shinyanga 2014 Williamson Diamond 10 Shinyanga 2013 Williamson Diamond 12 Shinyanga 2014 Williamson Diamond 3 Shinyanga 2015 Liquidified Natural Gas Power plant(LNG) 100 Mtwara 2018 Expansion of Makonde Plateau Water Supply and Sanitation Authority 6 Mtwara 2017 Ikwiriri Sugar factory 4 Lindi 2014 Mtwara Fertilizer Factory 30 Mtwara 2017 75 Dawasa- Ruvu pumping Expansion 12 Coast 2015 Hong Yu Steel (T) Ltd – Expansion 34 Coast 2015 Eagle Cement Co. Ltd 20 Coast 2015 76