7.3 CHAPTER 7 The Standard Normal Distribution (Z) The standard normal deviation is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. The Normal Distribution 34.13% 34.13% 2.28% µ − 3σ CS107/chapter07 1 e −( X − µ )2 2σ 2 µ−σ CS107/chapter07 µ µ+σ µ + 2σ 2.28% µ + 3σ About 68% About 95% About 99.7% 2 Procedure σ 2π 1. Draw the picture 2. Shade the area desired All normally distributed variables can be transformed into the standard normally distributed variable by using the formula for the standard score. 3. Find the correct figure 4. Follow the direction to get the desired area value − mean X −µ or z = z= σ standard deviation CS107/chapter07 µ − 2σ 13.59% Finding Areas under the Standard Normal Distribution Curve The formula for the standard normal distribution is y= 13.59% 3 CS107/chapter07 4 1 Case 1: Between 0 and z value • Look up the z value in the table to get the area Case 2: In any tail • Look up the z value to get the area • Subtract the area from 0.5000 0 +z -z 0 -z CS107/chapter07 5 Case 3: Between two z values on the same side of the mean: • Look up both z values to get the areas 0 0 6 Case 4: Between two z values on opposite sides of the mean • Look up both z value to get the areas • Add the areas z1 z2 -z CS107/chapter07 +z CS107/chapter07 • Subtract the smaller area from the larger area -z1 -z2 0 0 7 CS107/chapter07 0 +z 8 2 Case 5: To the left of any z value, where z is greater than the mean Case 6: To the right of any z value, where z is less than the mean • Look up the z value to get the area • Look up the z value in the table to get the area • Add 0.5000 to the area • Add 0.5000 to the area 0 +z CS107/chapter07 -z 9 0 CS107/chapter07 10 Example 7.1 (Ex 7-8) Case 7: In any two tails • Look up the z value in the table to get the area Find the area between z = 0 and z = -0.48 Solution: • Subtract both areas from 0.500 Area for z = 0.48 is 0.1844 • Add the answers So area between z = 0 and z = -0.48 is 0.1844 -0.48 0 Example 7.2 (Ex 7-10) Find the area to the right of z = 1.09 Solution: Area for z = 1.09 is 0.3621 So area = 0.5 - 0.3621 -z CS107/chapter07 0 = 0.1379 +z 11 CS107/chapter07 0 +1.09 12 3 Example 7.3 (Ex 7-16) Find the area between z =-0.87 and z = -0.21 Example 7.5 (Ex 7-20) Find the area to the left of z = 1.31 Solution: Area between z =0 and z = 0.87 is 0.3708 Area between z =0 and z = 0.21 is 0.0832 So, area between z =-0.87 and z = -0.21 is 0.3708 – 0.832 = 0.2246 Solution: Area between z =0 and z = 1.31 is 0.4049 So, area to the left of z =1.31 is 0.5 + 0.4049 = 0.9049 Example 7.4 (Ex 7-18) Find the area between z = 0.24 and z = -1.12 Solution: Area between z =0 and z = 0.24 is 0.0948 Area between z =0 and z = -1.12 is 0.3686 So,area between z =0.24 and z = -1.12 is 0.0948 + 0.3686 = 0.4634 -1.12 0 +0.24 CS107/chapter07 13 Example 7.7 (Ex 7-24) -1.92 -2.15 0 0 CS107/chapter07 14 Solution: Area between z = 0 and z = 1.69 is 0.4545 So P (0 < z < 1.69) = 0.4545 0 1.69 Example 7.9 (Ex7-28) Find probabilities for P (-1.23 < z < 0), using the standard normal distribution +1.62 Solution: Area between z = 0 and z = 1.23 is 0.3907 So P (-1.23 < z < 0) = 0.3907 Thus, the area to the left of z = -2.15 and to the right of z = 1.62 is 0.0158 + 0.0526 = 0.0684 CS107/chapter07 Example 7.6 (Ex 7-22) Find the area to the right of z = -1.92 Solution: Area between z =0 and z = 1.92 is 0.4726 So, area to the right of z = -1.92 is 0.5 + 0.4726 = 0.9726 Example 7.8 (Ex 7-26) Find probabilities for P (0 < z < 1.69), using the standard normal distribution Find the area to the left of z = -2.15 and to the right of z = 1.62 Solution: Area between z =0 and z = 2.15 is 0.4842 So, area to the left of z = -2.15 is 0.5 – 0.4842 = 0.0158 Area between z =0 and z = 1.62 is 0.4474 So, area to the right of z = 1.62 is 0.5 - 0.4474 = 0.0526 +1.31 0 -0.87 -0.21 0 15 CS107/chapter07 -1.23 0 16 4 Example 7.10 (Ex 7-36) Find probabilities for P (1.32 < z < 1.51), using the standard normal distribution 7.4 Example 7.12 (Ex.7-56) Solution: Area between z = 0 and z = 1.32 is 0.4066 Area between z = 0 and z = 1.51 is 0.4345 So P (1.32 < z < 1.51) = 0.4345 – 0.4066 = 0.0279 0 1.32 1.51 Example 7.11 (Ex 7-42) Find the z value for the given area. Solution: The area between 0 and z is 0.5-0.0239 = 0.4761 Thus, from the table, z = 1.98 Application of the Normal Distribution The Speedmaster IV automobile gets an average 22.0 miles per gallon in the city. The standard deviation is 3 miles per gallon. Assume the variable is normally distributed. Find the probability that on any given day the car will get more than 26 miles per gallon when driven in the city. 0.0239 0 z CS107/chapter07 17 Solution: CS107/chapter07 Example 7.13 (Ex 7-60) Step 1: Draw the figure and represent the area, as shown on the right. The average age of CEOs is 56 years. Assume the variables Step 2: Find the z value for 26 will be in the following range. normally distributed. If the standard deviation is four years, find the probability that the age of a randomly selected CEO 26 − 22 z= 3 Z = 1.33 18 22 a. Between 53 and 59 years old b. Between 58 and 63 years old 26 c. Between 50 and 55 years old Step 3: The area between z = 0 and z = 1.333 is 0.4082 Hence, the probability is 0.5 – 0.4082 = 0.0918 or 9.18% CS107/chapter07 19 CS107/chapter07 20 5 Solution: b. a. Find the two z values X −µ 53 − 56 3 =− 4 4 X − µ 59 − 56 3 = = z2 = σ 4 4 z1 = σ = X −µ 58 − 56 1 = 4 2 X − µ 63 − 56 7 = = z2 = σ 4 4 z1 = σ = Area between z = 0 and z = 0.5 is 0.1915 56 58 63 Area between z = 0 and z = 1.75 is 0.4599 53 56 So, total area is 0.4599 – 0.1915 = 0.2684 59 The area between z = 0 and z = -0.75 is 0.2734 c. The area between z = 0 and z = 0.75 is 0.2734 So, the total area is 0.5468 or 54.68% X −µ 50 − 56 3 =− 4 2 1 X − µ 55 − 56 z2 = = =− σ 4 4 Area between z = 0 and z = -1.5 is 0.4332 z1 = σ = 50 55 56 Area between z = 0 and z = -0.25 is 0.0987 So, total area is 0.4332 – 0.0987 = 0.3345 CS107/chapter07 21 Example 7.14 (Ex 7-70) 7.5 In order to qualify for letter sorting, applicants are given a speedreading test. The scores are normally distributed, with a mean of 80 and a standard deviation of 8. If only the top 15% of the applicants are selected, find the cutoff score. The top 15% is in the right tail of the normal curve. The corresponding z score is found using area = 0.50 – 0.15 = 0.35. Thus, z = 1.04 1.04 = 15% X −µ 22 The Central Limit Theorem A sampling distribution of sample means is a distribution obtained by using the means computed from random samples of a specific size taken from a population Solution: z= CS107/chapter07 Sampling error is the difference between the sample measure and the corresponding population measure due to the fact that the sample is not a perfect representation of the population. σ X − 80 8 80 x X = 88.32 CS107/chapter07 23 CS107/chapter07 24 6 The Central Limit Theorem Properties of the Distribution of Sample Means 1. 2. As the sample size n increases, the shape of the The mean of the sample means will be the same as the population mean. distribution of the sample means taken with replacement from a population with mean µ and standard deviation σ The standard deviation of the sample means will be smaller than the standard deviation of the population, and it will be equal to the population standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size. CS107/chapter07 will approach a normal distribution. As previously shown, this distribution will have a mean µ and a standard deviation 25 Summary of Formulas and Their Uses z = z = X − µ σ X − µ σ n σ n CS107/chapter07 26 Example 7.15 (Ex 7-104) The mean grade point average of the engineering majors at a large university is 3.23, with a standard deviation of 0.72. In a class of 48 students, find the probability that the mean grade point average of the student is less than 3.15. Used to gain information about an individual data value when the variable is normally distributed. Solution: Used to gain information when applying the central limit theorem about a sample mean when the variable is normally distributed or when the sample size is 30 or more. z= X − µ 3.15 − 3.23 = = 0.77 n 0.72 48 σ P(z < 0.77) = 0.5 – 0.2794 = 0.2206 CS107/chapter07 27 CS107/chapter07 3.15 3.23 28 7 Example 7.16 (Ex 7-114) Solution: Assume that the mean systolic blood pressure of normal adults is 120 millimeters of mercury (mm Hg) and the standard deviation is 5.6. Assume the variable is normally distributed. a. b. b. If a sample of 30 adults is randomly selected, find the probability that the sample mean will be between 120 and 121.8 mm Hg. 121 . 8 − 120 = 1 .76 5 .6 30 120 121.8 c. Sample means are less variable than individual data. 29 7.1 (*Ex 7-48) CS107/chapter07 30 Review Exercise 7.2 (Ex 7-78) A small publisher wishes to publish self-improvement books. After a survey of the market, the publisher finds that the average cost of the type of the book that she wishes to publish is $12.80. If she wants to price her books to sell in the middle 70% range, what should the maximum and minimum prices of the books be? The standard deviation is $0.83 and the variable is normally distributed. Find two z values so that 40% of the middle area is bounded by them. Solution: Area between 0 and z is 0.2 Solution: X −µ z= σ From the table, z = 0.52 Thus, the two values are 0.52 and –0.52 z= P(0 < z <1.76) = 0.4608 c. Why is the answer to Part a so much smaller than the answer to Part b? Review Exercise 121.8 − 120 = 0.32 5. 6 P(0 < z < 0.32) = 0.1255 a. If an individual is selected, find the probability that the individual’s pressure will be between 120 and 121.8 mm Hg. CS107/chapter07 z= -0.52 X − 12.8 0.83 X = 13.66 1.04 = 0.52 and − 1.04 = X − 12.8 0.83 X = 11.94 ∴ The minimum price is $11.94 and the maximum price is $13.66 CS107/chapter07 31 CS107/chapter07 32 8 Review Exercise 7.3 (Ex 7-140) Solution: The average diastolic blood pressure of a certain age group of people is 85mm Hg. The standard deviation is 6. If an individual from this age group is selected, find the probability that his or her pressure will be the following. Assume the variable is normally distributed a. 90 − 85 = 0.83 6 area between z = 0 and z = 0.83 is 0.2967 z= P(z > 0.83) = 0.5 – 0.2967 85 = 0.2033 a. Greater than 90 b. Below 80 b. c. Between 85 and 95 d. Between 88 and 92 80 − 85 = −0.83 6 area between z = 0 and z = -0.83 is 0.2967 z= P(z < -0.83) = 0.5 – 0.2967 = 0.2033 CS107/chapter07 33 Solution: 95 − 85 = 1.67 c. z = 6 80 85 CS107/chapter07 34 Review Exercise 7.4 (Ex 7-144) The average weight of an airline passenger’s suitcase is 45 pounds. The standard deviation is 2 pounds. If 15% of the suitcases are overweight, find the maximum weight allowed by the airline. Assume the variable is normally distributed. area between z = 0 and z = 1.67 is 0.4525 P(0 < z <1.67) = 0.4525 90 85 95 Solution: 92 − 85 = 1.17 6 88 − 85 z= = 0. 5 6 d. z = The 15% overweight suitcases are in the right tail, the corresponding z score for the area is 1.04 area = 0.3790 area = 0.1915 z= X −µ P( 0.5 < z < 1.17) = 0.3790 - 0.1915 85 88 92 σ 1.04 = X − 4.5 2 X = 47.08 = 0.1875 CS107/chapter07 35 CS107/chapter07 36 9