25
$
2013 WEEK 4
Featuring
the SDQL
Including: Week 4 NFL selections+!!
NFL Player Trends, SBB’s Spotlight System, Dozens of NFL/NCAA Trends
MTI’s Newsletter Teaser Plays...
Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week
Arizona +8.5, Baltimore +2.5
Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Cardinals are 15-0
ATSp6 when one game under 500. The Bills are 15-0 ATSp6
when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60%
of their offensive plays, season-to-date.
Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week
San Francisco +7, Cleveland +15, Indianapolis +2
Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The 49ers are 38-0
ATSp10 when their opponent’s season-to-date average
rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Browns are
26-0 ATSp10 as a home dog when their opponent’s seasonto-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35.
The Colts are 21-0 ATSp10 on the road when their opponent’s
season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer
than 25.
Complimentary NCAA Play This
Week from SBB..
W
hile this newsletter focuses primarily on NFL action you
do get a sampling of SportsBook Breakers and Cajun
Sports ability to handicap NCAA football successfully as well
using the powerful SDQL. If you want to see exactly what this
kind of handicapping looks like in action, go to killercappers.
com this week and check out one of SBB’s guaranteed selections
for this Saturday’s action complementary! SBB currently has a
big Thursday night side available and the complimentary play
and its other Saturday selections will be posted Friday morning.
In This Issue:
MTi’s Week 4 Selections....................................................... 2
SportsBook Breakers’ Week 4 Selections............................. 3
The Power of Two-Team Teasers.......................................... 4
SportsBook Breakers’ Spotlight System............................... 4
Cajun Sports College Football System.................................. 5
SBB’s Five NFL Trends to Watch in Week 4........................... 6
SBB’s NCAA Trends to Watch................................................ 6
Pick Sixty Totally Covered: OU Angles.................................. 7
NFL Schedule Chart.............................................................. 8
NFL Trends and Notes......................................................9-11
NFL Handicapping Bible Trends.......................................... 10
SBB’s NFL Player Trends...................................................... 11
Tracking The 2013 Season...
W
hile the powerful SDQL is great for tracking complex and
very specific handicapping information, it is also just as
useful for tracking the basics. In this spot all season long we
will track basic handicapping situations over the full season, as
well as how they’ve gone the past three weeks.
Situation
2013 ats record
ats record Last 3
Weeks
Home
27-19-2
27-19-2
Home Dog
9-5
9-5
Home Favorite
18-14-2
18-14-2
TD+ Favorite
6-7
6-7
10+ Pt Favorite
2-3
2-3
Off a win
15-16-1
15-16-1
Off a Cover
10-5
10-5
Average Total Score
45.3 ppg.
45.3 ppg.
MTi’s NFL Selections / Week 4
MTi’s Newsletter Side Play
4-Star SAN DIEGO +1.5 over Dallas – The reason for the
Chargers loss last week was that the ran the ball twice in a row
from a 2nd-and-16 with three minutes left to go in the game
while leading 17-13. They were forced to punt the ball away
and with 2:05 left in the game, the Titans marched down the
field for the winning TD. The Chargers have Philip Rivers and
they run the ball twice with long yardage to go and the game
on the line? Idiocy.
Now they are under 500 at 1-2. We like them at home vs a
Dallas team that is thinking they have a cakewalk to the division title.
San Diego has crushed their opponent in this spot. The
Chargers are 8-0 ATS when a game under 500 at home, winning
by an average of 22.5 ppg and covered by an average of over
two touchdowns. The SDQL text is:
team=Chargers and H and losses-wins=1 and date>=20071001
Note that the Chargers won every game by at least two TDs.
In addition, San Diego is 12-0 ATS when their completion
percentage increased in each of their past two games as long
as they are not off a loss by more than a TD or were a doubledigit favorite in their last game. The SDQL text is:
team=Chargers and p:CP>pp:CP>ppp:CP and p:line>-10 and
p:margin>=-7 and season>=2004
The Cowboys are in a soft spot – off an easy home win against
the Rams. Dallas is 0-8 ATS as a favorite after a win versus any
team with fewer wins. The SDQL text is:
team=Cowboys and F and p:W and wins>o:wins and
date>=20101225
Dallas was in this spot four times last season and the only
time they managed to win straight up was a 23-20 overtime
win over the Browns laying seven – and they entered the fourth
trailing by double-digits and needed a FG as time expired just
to send it to overtime.
Against the Rams DeMarco Murray had more rushing attempts than Romo had passes and this is very unusual for the
Cowboys. It is also a strong negative indicator. Dallas is 0-11
ATS as a favorite the week after a game in which they threw at
least 10 fewer passes than their season-to-date average and
rushed for fewer than 220 yards. The SDQL text is:
team=Cowboys and F and p:F and tA(p:passes)-p:passes>=10
and NB and p:RY<220 and date>=19931101
Both of Dallas’ wins this season came at home against the
Giants and the Rams respectively. These two are a combined
0-6 ATS this season. The Chargers should be ready to play.
MTi’s FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 Dallas 24
MTi’s Newsletter Total
4-Star Chicago at Detroit UNDER 47.5 – We had the Bears
and Steelers OVER last week because the Steelers were in such
a desperate situation and many key performance indicators on
both sides pointed to the OVER. This has given us great line
value here and we’ll grab it.
Chicago has allow more points than expected in each of their
first three games this season. This points to a defensive effort,
as they are 0-17 OU as a dog when they have had a positive DPA
in each of their last three games. The SDQL text is:
team=Bears and D and 0<p:dpa and 0<pp:dpa and 0<ppp:dpa
and date>=19921201
Also, Chicago is 0-9 OU since 2009 as a dog vs a divisional
opponent with a non-divisional opponent next:
team=Bears and D and DIV and n:NDIV and season>=2009
and 0-8 OU since 2008 as a dog when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season:
team=Bears and D and DIV and season=P:season + 1 and
season>=2008
If the Lions lose at home to the 3-0 Bears, it will be very
tough to catch them in the divisional race. As a favorite, we
expect the Lions to start conservatively against the ball-hawking
Bears’ defense. Indeed, Detroit is 0-6 OU after week 2 vs an
undefeated opponent. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Lions and o:losses=0 and week>2 and season>=2003
Yes, the Bears have gone over in every game so far this
season, but this is the first time that they are the underdog.
Chicago should back this game about their defense and not
about Jay Cutler.
In the history of the database (since 1989) the Bears have
had three games in which the OU was higher than 47. All three
stayed under. This one should as well.
MTi’s FORECAST: DETROIT 20 Chicago 17
Purchase MTi’s NFL Sides, Totals, Teasers, Futures,
First Quarter and First Half Plays at:
www.killercappers.com
2 | www.KillerSports.com
SportsBook Breakers’ NFL Selections / Week 4
SBB’s Newsletter Side
4-STAR CLEVELAND over Cincinnati - People are overreacting to
Cincinnati’s win over Green Bay last week. That game was littered
with fluky plays from both sides with the ultimate changer and game
winner coming on a long, double fumble return. Cleveland is one place
where the Bengals have struggled and with the Browns rejevinated
after last week, we see it happening again.
Cincinnati has struggled when favored over the Browns when
they are ahead of them in the standings. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS
since Dec 31, 2006 as a favorite when facing a divisional opponent
that has a worse record (team=Bengals and F and DIV and o:WP<WP
and date>=20061231). The last six of those games all came against
the Browns.
Last week, Cincinnati won over the Packers, 34-30. The total was
49.5 in that game, eight points higher than it is here. When facing a
team which saw its total drop by at least 6.5 points from last game,
teams are 432-317-21 (o:total-op:total<=-6.5).
The 30 points allowed though were the highest they have allowed
this year. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS since Dec 27, 2009 after they
allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average
(team=Bengals and Average(po:points@team and season and
po:season=season) + 10<po:points and date>=20091227).
This is a huge line swing after being home dogs of 2.5 points in that
game. Favorites after winning as a home dog last game by less than
17 points 58-87-1 ATS (F and p:HDW and p:margin<17).
They are now not just favored, but favored on the road by a
significant amount. Teams favored by at least two points on the road
after playing as a dog of at least 2.5 points at home last game are 5680-5 ATS (p:HD and AF and p:line>=2.5 and line<=2).
Cincinnati relied on ball control last week but not so here, having
the ball for just 28 minutes in the win. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS since
Dec 07, 2003 the week after a win in which they had at least three
fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average
(team=Bengals and p:W and p:time of possession + 180<=Average(time
of possession@team and season and tp:season=season) and
date>=20031207).
Cleveland’s offense broke out in a big way last week, winning 31-27
in Minnesota with Brian Hoyer behind center. They had 306 passing
yards. The Browns are 6-0 ATS since Oct 24, 2004 the week after a
win in which they had at least 300 yards passing (team=Browns and
300<=p:passing yards and p:W and date>=20041024).
They also threw for four TDs in the game. Teams which threw for
at least 4 touchdowns last game are 132-105-6 ATS (p:PTD>=4).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CLEVELAND BY 4
SportsBook Breakers’ Top Total
4-STAR NY Giants/Kansas City Under - Kansas City is maybe the most
conservative team in the league. Their offense doesn’t make big strikes,
preferring to control the ball in long drives which lead to unders. On the
other side, the Giants have almost no choice but to continue go with
a similar strategy. Worries about fumbling have already sapped David
Wilson of his explosiveness and with the rate Eli Manning is turning
the ball over, he’s going to have to rein things in as well.
New York is a sizable road dog here after playing as road favorites just
last week in a 38-0 loss to Carolina. The Giants are 0-6-1 OU since Dec
03, 1990 as a road dog after playing as an away favorite (team=Giants
and AD and p:AF and date>=19901203).
They now get a KC team which has started the season out 3-0. The
Giants are 0-6 OU since Jan 22, 2012 when their opponent is on a 2+
game winning streak (team=Giants and 0<op:margin and 0<opp:margin
and date>=20120122).
Meanwhile New York is 0-3. The Chiefs are 0-8 OU since Sep 15, 2002
as a favorite when facing a team with no wins after week 1 (team=Chiefs
and F and o:wins=0 and o:losses>0 and date>=20020915).
Kansas City’s pass defense has been strong this season thus far.
They’ve allowed less than nine yards per completion so far this year.
The Giants are 0-9-1 OU since Oct 15, 2006 as a road dog when they
are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion
season-to-date (team=Giants and AD and Average(1.*passing
yards@o:team and season) / Average(completions@o:team and
season)<10 and date>=20061015).
This could be an issue for a New York team which has thrown the ball
39.3 times per game. The Chiefs are 0-8-1 OU since Dec 05, 2010 when
their opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts per game is
greater than 35 (team=Chiefs and oA(passes)>35 and date>=20101205)
Last week against the lowly Eagles defense, they did hit one big
play to Donnie Avery for 51 yards. The Chiefs are 0-10-1 OU since Oct
31, 2010 at home after a game in which a receiver had a reception of
29+ yards (team=Chiefs and H and 29<=max:p:longest reception and
date>=20101031).
They did still manage to get sacked five times despite the quick
throwing offense. The Chiefs are 0-9 OU since Dec 19, 2010 after
a game in which they allowed at least four sacks (team=Chiefs and
4<=po:sacks and date>=20101219).
The key to their game though was committing no turnovers.
The Chiefs are 0-6 OU since Nov 13, 2011 after a game in which
they committed no turnovers (team=Chiefs and p:turnovers=0 and
date>=20111113).
They also managed an impressive time of possession of
over 39 minutes. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU since Oct 31, 2010 as a
favorite the week after a game in which they had at least three
more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date
average (team=Chiefs and F and Average(p:time of possession@
team and season and p:season=season) + 180<=p:TOP and
date>=20101031).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
SportsBook Breakers picks
are found exclusively at
www.killercappers.com
2013 NFL Week 4 | 3
The Power of Two-Team Teasers
One of the fantastic and unique features of www.killersports.com is the ability to run teaser trends. Each week
we’ll show off five such two-team teaser trends in this space utilizing this important and often overlooked area of
handicapping. Any trend with a “p6” designation is for a play on/under 6-pt teaser and a trend including “m6” is for
a play against/over 6-pt teaser.
Teaser Trends
Sports Data Query Language
The Texans are 17-0 ATSp6 since Oct 22, 2006 as a dog after a
loss on the road.
team=Texans and D and p:AL and date>=20061022
The Cardinals are 0-24 ATSm6 since Nov 09, 2003 on the road
when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.
team=Cardinals and A and o:streak<=-2 and date>=20031109
The Vikings are 0-21 ATSm6 since Sep 26, 1999 after a loss as
a home favorite
team=Vikings and p:HFL and date>=19990926
The Falcons are 21-0-2 OUm6 since Dec 15, 2002 the week after
a loss in which their completion percentage was at least ten
points lower than their season-to-date average
team=Falcons and p:L and p:CP+10<tA(p:CP) and NB and
date>=20021215
The Ravens are 0-17 OUp6 since Sep 30, 2007 as a road
favorite after a win.
team=Ravens and AF and p:W and date>=20070930
SportsBook Breakers’ Spotlight System
SportsBook Breakers spent the offseason focused on
league systems and has found over 75 that are winners
at well over the 55% required rate for the long-term
success. Each week, SBB will highlight an active league
system here:
Playoff teams from a season ago which are
between 0-2 and 0-4 are 30-20-2 ATS.
SDQL TEXT: Sum(playoffs@team and season)[team
and season-1]>0 and wins=0 and 4>=losses>=2
The NFL is a league of what have you done for me lately.
That same mantra goes for most bettors too. That
reasoning is what provides value on the system we are
examining today.
Playoff teams from a season ago which are between 0-2 and
0-4 are 30-20-2 ATS.
When a team is struggling, it is easy to forget their previous
success. This system is a good view of that, as teams that
were in the playoffs a season ago have a much higher level
of talent than their early season struggles would indicate.
Looking at the lines for these games, it would seem that
bettors are valuing the previous 2-4 games these teams
have played instead of their past track record of success.
On average these teams are a dog in these game and when
we examine further, that is where their has been some real
great value on teams, which have gone 20-7 ATS as a dog in
these spots.
This week, there are two teams which are active in this
situation and both are playing to close lines - Washington
and Minnesota.
4 | www.KillerSports.com
Both teams were surprise playoff squads in 2012, but that
doesn’t mean they are as bad as their current 0-3 starts
either. Washington is a small favorite in Oakland this week
while Minnesota travels to London to take on another
disappointing team in Pittsburgh.
Cajun Sports College Football System
Due to extenuating circumstances, Cajun Sports was unable
to provide a system for this week’s newsletter. Cajun Sports will
return next week with its quality NCAA systems and writeups.
Cajun Sports selections can be found
each weekend at:
www.killercappers.com
2013 NFL Week 4 | 5
SBB’s Five NFL Trends to Watch: Week 4
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
The Texans are 17-0 ATSp6 since Oct 22, 2006 as a dog after a
loss on the road
team=Colts and AF and oA(rushes)<25 and date>=20021215
The Chiefs are 0-10 ATS since Oct 25, 2009 after a game when
they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.
team=Chiefs and 34 * 60<p:TOP and date>=20091025
The Cardinals are 17-0 OU since Dec 07, 2003 on the road the
week after a game in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
team=Cardinals and A and NB and p:TOP+ 180<=Average(time
of possession@team and season and p:season=season) and
date>=20031207
The Rams are 12-0 OU since Oct 09, 2005 at home when their
ats margin decreased over each of their past two games.
team=Rams and H and p:ats margin<pp:ats margin<ppp:ats
margin and date>=20051009
The Ravens are 0-11 OU since Jan 13, 2007 as a favorite when
they won and covered their last two games.
team=Ravens and F and p:W and pp:W and p:ATSW and pp:ATSW
and date>=20070113
SBB’s College Football Trends to Watch (9-28)
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
Florida is 11-0 ATS (15.6 ppg) since December 2006 when they
have one loss season past game three and not in bowl games, and
aren’t 35+ point favorites and scored at least 14 points last game.
team= ‘FLA’ and date>=20061201 and losses=1 and line>-54
and p:points>14 and line>=-35 and game number>3 and game
type!=BG
Florida St. is 0-18 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since October 2005 if not
favored by 40 or more, when they scored at least 42 points last
game in a win and weren’t 60+ point favorites.
team= ‘FLST’ and date>=20051001 and p:points>=42 and
p:line>-60 and line>-40 and p:W
Fresno State is 12-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since November 21, 2008 on
the road after a win at home where they were not favored by
more than 30 points.
team=’FRES’ and A and p:line>=-30 and p:HW and
date>=20081121
Houston is 0-10-1 ATS (-13.3 ppg) since October 27,2007 as an
away favorite of fewer than 14 points, when the total is under
77 and it is past game two of the season.
team= ‘HOU’ and AF and line>-14 and date>=20071027 and
total<77 and game number>2
Kent St. is 0-14-2 ATS (-14.7ppg) since September 30, 1995 in
Saturday games when they scored six points or fewer and allowed at least 10 points on a Saturday, last game and weren’t
34+ point dogs.
team= ‘KEST’ and date>=19950930 and p:points<=6 and
p:line<34 and p:day= ‘Saturday’ and day=’Saturday’ and
po:points>=10
Purchase SportsBook Breakers
College & Pro Football Selections
each week at www.killercappers.com
6 | www.KillerSports.com
Totally Covered: O/U Angles For Week 4
In the first week of the season the 1 pm ET start games
produced 3 overs and 8 unders. Later games, including the
Sunday and Monday nighter were a perfect 5-0 to the over. In
Week 2 we saw a 7-3 O/U record in 10 early starts compared
to 1 over and 5 unders in the late games but then in Week 3 it
flipped right back to the Week 1 track: 2-8 O/U in early games
and 5-1 O/U in late/primetime games.
This is a complete coincidence and something only an Over/
Under geek would notice but the handicapping lesson is that
lines on gameday move more than any other day of the week.
Huge public money comes pouring into sportsbooks from bettors
who are caught up in the action or perhaps chasing losses. Before
you place a bet Sunday afternoon just be sure and ask yourself,
“Why wasn’t this game added to my card earlier in the week?”
If it’s a solid play and you were just waiting to see how the
early bets turned out, the next step is to make sure you aren’t
betting into a bad number. Totals through the first three weeks
of the season have finished within a .33-point margin of the
closing number and each of the past two seasons finished less
than a point from the mark, on average.
Get your lines early, track them throughout the week and
try to make the majority of your bets before Joe Public jumps
on board.
WEATHER WATCH
It might seem a little early in the year to start checking
weather but you can bet the oddsmaker has had a peek! Here
are a few games to circle for potential rain or wind on gameday:
Bengals at Browns, O/U 41.5
Cincinnati’s defense has been good, not great, but they are still
a lot better than the Vikings team that Cleveland ran roughshod
over in Week 3. This is the first of three-straight home games
for the Browns and we’ll look for the defense to dig in its heels
as they try and build off last week’s win. Divisional teams in this
spot show 8 overs and 23 unders since 2011:
SDQL: H and DIV and n:H and n:NDIV and season >= 2011
and month in [9 , 10]
Cardinals at Buccaneers, O/U 40.5
Six of the past eight meetings between these franchises
stayed under the total and most of the unders weren’t even close
(14 points or more). This game marks the highest posted total
between these two franchises since 1989, a 14-13 Bucs win (UN
43.5) and here’s an angle to consider when `capping this game:
SDQL: H and p:ATSL and p:AD and op:ATSL and op:AD and
season >= 2000 and total < 41
Each team is off a blowout loss and the 34 games in this series
suggest we could be in for a defensive battle (12-22 O/U). You can
see by the chart that only four of 32 teams since Oct. 15, 2006
scored more than 24 points and Tampa’s defense are only giving
up 21 points per game on home turf since the start of last season.
Jets at Titans, O/U 39
Non-divisional home faves of -7 or less points off a win are 4629-3 O/U (61-percent) since 1995 including 14 overs in 18 games
since 2007. This is an early season profile (Week 5 or earlier) and
the total has to be lower than 42. If the weather co-operates we
would consider playing this game OVER up to 41 points or less.
SDQL: NDIV and HF and line >= -7 and p:W and season >=
1995 and total < 42 and week <= 5
PRIMETIME POWER
The San Francisco 49ers are in a bit a downward spiral since
beating Green Bay in Week 1 and normally for Jim Harbaugh a
trip out of the Pacific Time zone is just the thing to get his team
back on track.
SDQL: team = Fortyniners and A and o:time zone != P and
season >= 2011
Under Harbaugh the Niners have an 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS
record away from the left coast and that includes a remarkable
9-2 SU/ATS mark as dogs or when favored by less than -6 points.
The past six games in that sub-profile have produced 5 overs
and 1 under and divisional home dogs (Rams) of less than 6.5
points are 9-6 O/U the past 15 times but before piling on the
“Over” there is a nice 75-percent trend to consider that’s been
producing winners since 2003.
SDQL: H and DIV and day = Thursday and 37 <= total <= 47
and season >= 2003
20 divisional matchups on a short week with a total between
two key numbers (37 and 47) have landed below the total 15
times by an average of 5.5 points. Consider betting the Niners
and Rams to stay UNDER 42 points.
Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, co-founder
of Pick Sixty Sports. You can follow Jarvis on Twitter for
more hard-hitting NFL information at @JarvisSimes
and be sure to check out the SDQL page at www.
picksixtysports.com for more trends and systems daily!
2013 NFL Week 4 | 7
2013 NFL Week 4
Time
8:25
THUR
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1;00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
4:05
SUN
4:25
SUN
4:25
SUN
4:25
SUN
8:30
SUN
8:30
MON
Teams
San Francisco at
St. Louis
Cincinnati at
Cleveland
Baltimore at
Buffalo
Arizona at
Tampa Bay
Indianapolis at
Jacksonville
Seattle at
Houston
Chicago at
Detroit
NY Giants at
Kansas City
Pittsburgh vs
Minnesota
NY Jets at
Tennessee
Washington at
Oakland
Dallas at
San Diego
Philadelphia at
Denver
New England at
Atlanta
Miami at
New Orleans
Prev.
L vs IND
L @ DAL
W @ GB
W @ MIN
W vs HOU
L @ NYJ
L @ NO
L @ NE
W @ SF
L @ SEA
W vs JAC
L @ BAL
W @ PIT*
W @ WAS
L @ CAR
W @ PHL^
L vs CHI*
L vs CLE
W vs BUF
W vs SD
L vs DET
L @ DEN#
W vs STL
L @ TEN
L vs KC^
W vs OAK#
W vs TB
L @ MIA
W vs ATL
W vs ARZ
Next
Lines
Final
#On Monday Night, *On Sunday Night, % On Saturday Night, ^On Thursday Night
Notes:
8 | www.KillerSports.com
Notes
in London
Trends and Notes / Week 4
Fortyniners at Rams - The Fortyniners are 0-11-1 ATS since
Nov 15, 1998 within 3 of pick on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing at home. The Fortyniners are 0-6-1 ATS
since Sep 12, 2010 on artificial turf vs a divisional opponent.
The Rams are 0-7 ATS since Oct 28, 2007 as a dog the week after
they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing
yards on the road. The Rams are 7-0 ATS since Jan 01, 2012 as
a dog vs a divisional opponent. The Fortyniners are 0-10 OU
since Nov 30, 2008 after a loss in which Frank Gore had fewer
than 25 receiving yards. The Rams are 7-0 OU since Nov 21,
2010 at home after a road game in which a receiver had more
than 6 receptions.
Ravens at Bills - The Ravens are 0-8 ATS since Sep 23, 2001
as a road favorite when they are one game above 500. The Bills
are 6-0 ATS since Sep 16, 2012 after a loss as an away dog. The
Ravens are 0-7 OU since Nov 17, 2002 after a game in which
they scored a punt return touchdown. The Bills are 9-0 OU since
Dec 05, 2010 as a dog on artificial turf after a loss.
Eagles at Broncos - The Eagles are 0-8 ATS since Sep 09,
2012 after a game in which a receiver had a reception of 40+
yards. The Broncos are 0-8 ATS since Nov 27, 1994 at home
after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time at home. The Broncos are 8-0 ATS since Sep 30, 2012
as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed at least 65%
completions season-to-date. The Eagles are 9-0 OU since Nov
15, 2009 when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.
The Eagles are 0-8 OU since Oct 02, 1989 as a road dog the week
after a loss at home in which their completion percentage was
at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The
Broncos are 8-0 OU since Oct 10, 2010 after a game when they
had more than 34 minutes of possession time.
Bengals at Browns - The Bengals are 7-0-1 ATS since Nov 14,
2010 after a game in which they allowed at least four sacks. The
Bengals are 6-0 ATS since Jan 02, 2011 the week after scoring
34+ points. The Browns are 6-0 ATS since Oct 24, 2004 the
week after a win in which they had at least 300 yards passing.
The Bengals are 0-7 OU since Dec 24, 2011 as a favorite after a
win. The Browns are 7-0 OU since Nov 07, 1999 as a home dog
when they covered by 10+ points last week.
Cardinals at Buccaneers - The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS since
Sep 20, 2009 as a dog when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing
streak. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS since Nov 05, 2006 at home
the week after a loss on the road in which they attempted at
least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. The
Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS since Oct 19, 2008 at home when they
have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games. The
Cardinals are 10-0 OU since Nov 16, 2003 as a road dog after
a loss on the road.
Cowboys at Chargers - The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS since Jan
02, 1994 as a road favorite after they allowed at least 10 points
fewer than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 0-7
ATS since Sep 15, 1996 as a favorite the week after a game at
home in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than
their season-to-date average. The Chargers are 0-7 ATS since
Nov 23, 2008 at home after a loss as a dog. The Chargers are
9-0-1 OU since Sep 22, 1996 as a dog after they scored at least
10 points fewer than their season-to-date average on the road.
The Chargers are 0-11 OU since Nov 26, 2000 within 3 of pick
when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of
their offensive plays, season-to-date.
Giants at Chiefs - The Giants are 0-7 ATS since Oct 01, 2000
as a road dog the week after scoring fewer than 10 points. The
Giants are 7-0 ATS since Jan 07, 2007 as a road dog when they
have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The
Chiefs are 0-7 ATS since Sep 15, 2002 as a home favorite when
facing a team with no wins after week 1. The Giants are 7-0-1
OU since Dec 28, 2003 the week after scoring fewer than 10
points. The Chiefs are 0-8-1 OU since Dec 05, 2010 at home
when their opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts
per game is greater than 35.
Patriots at Falcons - The Patriots are 6-0 ATS since Sep 15,
2002 within 3 of pick on the road when they covered by 10+
points last week. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS since Dec 23, 2007 as
a dog after a loss. The Falcons are 0-7 ATS since Dec 02, 2001
as a home dog when their opponent’s season-to-date average
pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Patriots are 7-0
OU since Dec 03, 2007 as a road favorite on artificial turf vs a
non-divisional opponent. The Falcons are 0-12 OU since Nov 21,
1993 the week after a game as a dog in which they attempted
at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average.
The Falcons are 0-7 OU since Sep 17, 2012 after a road game in
which a receiver had more than 100 receiving yards.
Colts at Jaguars - The Colts are 6-0-1 ATS since Nov 14, 1999
as a road favorite when their rushing yards increased in each
of the last two weeks. The Colts are 0-7 OU since Jan 02, 2011
vs a divisional opponent with a non-divisional opponent next.
The Jaguars are 0-7 OU since Oct 18, 2010 vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Colts are 7-0 OU since
continued on page 10
2013 NFL Week 4 | 9
Trends and Notes / Week 4 continued
Oct 19, 2008 as a favorite when they are one game above 500
after a win.
Bears at Lions - The Bears are 0-10-2 ATS since Dec 07,
2003 on the road when they won last week as a favorite while
benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2. The Bears
are 7-0 ATS since Oct 19, 2003 as a road dog after a game as
a road dog. The Lions are 0-6 ATS since Oct 30, 2005 vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road with a divisional
opponent next. The Bears are 0-8 OU since Sep 13, 2009 as a
dog vs a divisional opponent with a non-divisional opponent
next. The Bears are 7-0 OU since Nov 13, 2011 after a win in
which Matt Forte had fewer than 25 receiving yards. The Lions
are 0-6 OU since Dec 25, 1999 as a home favorite after playing
as a favorite.
Redskins at Raiders - The Redskins are 6-0 ATS since Nov
27, 2011 after playing as a home dog. The Raiders are 0-10
ATS since Oct 27, 2002 within 3 of pick when they suffered at
least three sacks in each of the last two weeks. The Redskins
are 7-0 OU since Dec 17, 1989 as a road favorite the week
after a game in which they had at least 300 yards passing. The
Redskins are 0-6 OU since Oct 26, 2008 as a favorite when their
dps was negative in their last two games. The Raiders are 0-8
OU since Nov 06, 2006 when they allowed at least 100 more
yards passing last week than their season-to-date average.
Seahawks at Texans - The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS since Jan
08, 2011 after a win in which a receiver had more than 75 receiving yards. The Seahawks are 6-0 OU since Sep 25, 2005 the
week after a win in which they had at least 100 more yards of
offense than their season-to-date average. The Texans are 12-0
continued on page 11
SportsBook Breakers’ NFL Player Trends
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
The Seahawks are 9-0-1 ATS since September 25, 2011 after a
game in which Doug Baldwin had one reception.
Seahawks:Doug Baldwin:p:receptions=1 and date>=20110925
The Broncos are 9-0 ATS since November 17, 2011 after a game
in which Eric Decker had a reception of 25+ yards
2 5 < = B r o n co s : Er i c D e c ke r : p : l o n g e st r e ce pt i o n a n d
date>=20111117
The Steelers are 0-7 ATS since December 2011 if not a double
digit favorite, after a game in which Antonio Brown had at least
5 receptions and they ran for less than 160 yards as a team.
5<=Steelers:Antonio Brown:p:receptions and date>=20111201
and line>-10 and p:RY<160
The Bears are 0-11 ATS since October 2008 following a game
where Matt Forte had a rush of at least 33 yards and averaged
at least 3.6 yards per carry.
MForte:p:longest rush>=33 and MForte:p:rushing yards/
MForte:p:rushes>=3.6 and date>=20081001
The Bills are 7-0 OU since January 2, 2011 after a loss in which
CJ Spiller had fewer than 3 receptions
Bills:CJ Spiller:p:receptions<3 and p:L and date>=20110102
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Trends and Notes / Week 4 continued
OU since Dec 18, 2005 within 3 of pick at home after a loss.
Jets at Titans - The Jets are 9-0 ATS since Oct 25, 2009 when
their rushing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The
Titans are 0-8 ATS since Dec 06, 2009 after a home game in
which a receiver had more than 100 receiving yards. The The
Jets are 0-10 OU since Dec 10, 2000 as a dog on grass after a
win as a favorite . The Jets are 7-0 OU since Dec 10, 2006 the
week after a win in which they had at least 100 more yards of
offense than their season-to-date average. The Titans are 0-9
OU since Sep 15, 2002 as a favorite when facing a team that has
forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date.
Steelers at Vikings - The Vikings are 9-0-1 ATS since Oct 27,
1991 within 3 of pick the week after a loss in which they had at
least three more minutes of possession time than their seasonto-date average. The Vikings are 0-6 OU since Sep 16, 2012
after a game in which Kyle Rudolph had more than 5 receptions
Dolphins at Saints - The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS since Oct 31,
1999 on the road the week after a win at home in which their
dpa was positive. The Saints are 9-0 ATS since Nov 21, 2010 as
a favorite when they have had a negative dpa in each of their
last two games. The Dolphins are 0-6 OU since Nov 19, 2009
after a win as a home favorite. The Saints are 8-0 OU since Dec
31, 2006 when they have had a negative dpa in each of their
last three games.
NFL HANDICAPPING BIBLE Active Trends
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
The Bengals are 11-0 ATS (+12.5 ppg) since 1997 on the road
after they scored at least 10 points more than their seasonto-date average at home, as long as neither team is favored
by a TD or more.
team=Bengals and -7<line<7 and p:points- tA(p:points)>=10
and p:H and A and season>=1997
The Jets are 10-0 ATS (+14.9 ppg) since October 25, 2009 when
their rushing yards increased in each of the last two weeks.
team=Jets and ppp:RY<pp:RY<p:RY and 20091025<=date
The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (+11.6 ppg) since 2005 after a game
where they had a turnover margin of -4 or worse.
team = Steelers and season>= 2005 and p:TOM>=4
The Raiders are 0-13 OU (-10.6 ppg) since 2008 when the total
is under 52 and they controlled the ball for under 25 minutes
last game.
team = Raiders and season >= 2008 and p:TOP<1500 and total<52
The Texans are 12-0 OU (+10.6 ppg) since December 2005 at
home when they are off a loss and the line is within 3 of pick.
team=Texans and H and -3<=line<=3 and p:L and 20051201<=date
Every week there are several active trends available in the 2013 NFL Handicapping Bible. Check your copy to find trends
not included here. If you have yet to download your copy, do so at http://killersports.com/NFL/PDF/2013NFLBible.pdf
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2013 NFL Week 4 | 11
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