Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics July 2010 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics Contents 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Benchmark Spread .............................................................................................................................................. 3 1.1 Methodology .................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.1.1 Annual Benchmark Spread ....................................................................................................................... 3 1.1.2 Semi-annual Benchmark Spread .............................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Index Benchmark Spread.............................................................................................................................. 4 1.2.1 Annual Index Benchmark Spread ............................................................................................................. 4 1.2.2 Semi-annual Index Benchmark Spread .................................................................................................... 4 Spread to Benchmark Curve............................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Methodology .................................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1.1 Annual Spread to Benchmark Curve ........................................................................................................ 5 2.1.2 Semi-annual Benchmark Spread .............................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Index Spread to Benchmark Curve ............................................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 Annual Index Spread to Benchmark Curve .............................................................................................. 6 2.2.2 Semi-annual Index Spread to Benchmark Curve ..................................................................................... 6 Spread to Libor Curve ......................................................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Methodology .................................................................................................................................................. 7 3.1.1 Annual Spread to Libor Curve................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.2 Semi-annual Spread to Libor Curve.......................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Index Spread to Libor Curve ......................................................................................................................... 8 3.2.1 Annual Index Spread to Libor Curve......................................................................................................... 8 3.2.2 Semi-Annual Index Spread to Libor Curve ............................................................................................... 8 Z-spread .............................................................................................................................................................. 10 4.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 10 4.1.1 Benchmark Zero Coupon Curve ............................................................................................................. 10 4.1.2 Z-spread Calculation ............................................................................................................................... 11 4.2 Index Z-spread ............................................................................................................................................ 11 Z-spread over Libor Curve ................................................................................................................................ 12 5.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 12 5.1.1 Z-spread over Libor Curve Calculation ................................................................................................... 12 5.2 Index Z-spread over Libor ........................................................................................................................... 12 Option Adjusted Spread .................................................................................................................................... 13 6.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 13 6.1.1 Constructing Binomial Interest Rate Tree............................................................................................... 13 6.1.2 OAS Calculation...................................................................................................................................... 13 6.2 Index OAS ................................................................................................................................................... 14 Asset Swap Spread............................................................................................................................................ 15 7.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 15 7.1.1 Asset Swap Spread Calculation.............................................................................................................. 15 7.2 Index Asset Swap Spread ........................................................................................................................... 16 Further information............................................................................................................................................ 17 Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 2 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 1 Benchmark Spread 1.1 Methodology The benchmark spread can be defined as a premium above the yield on a default-free bond necessary to compensate for additional risk associated with holding the bond. Markit calculates the benchmark spread as the difference between the yield of the bond and the benchmark bond. Selection criteria for a benchmark bond are: – Government bond is selected as an approximation of a ‘default-free bond’ – The difference between maturities of a bond and the benchmark bond is the smallest in comparison to other alternatives 6% 5% Benchmark Spread 4% 3% 2% 1% Benchmark Yield Bond Yield 0% 0.5 4.5 8.5 12.5 16.5 20.5 24.5 28.5 32.5 1.1.1 Annual Benchmark Spread The annual benchmark spread of a bond i at time t is: 0 BMSi,ta = a a yi ,t − yBM i ,t where: yia,t - Annualized yield of a bond i at time t a yBM i ,t - Annualized yield of the benchmark of a bond i at time t Note that for benchmark bonds BMSi,a t = 0 Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 3 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 1.1.2 Semi-annual Benchmark Spread The semi-annual benchmark spread of a bond i at time t is: 0 BMSi,ts = s s yi ,t − yBM i ,t where: yis,t - Semi-annualized yield of a bond i at time t s yBM i ,t - Semi -annualized yield of the benchmark of a bond i at time t Note that for benchmark bonds BMSi,s t = 0 1.2 Index Benchmark Spread 1.2.1 Annual Index Benchmark Spread The annual index benchmark spread is calculated as follows: a i,t ⋅ MVi,t ⋅ D i,t ) ∑ (BMSBond n a BMSIndex, t = i=1 n ∑ (MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) i=1 where: – a BMSBond i,t - Annual benchmark spread of bond – MVi, t - Market value of bond – i at time t i at time t Di, t - Effective duration of bond i at time t 1.2.2 Semi-annual Index Benchmark Spread The semi-annual index benchmark spread is calculated as follows: s i,t ⋅ MVi,t ⋅ D i,t ) ∑ (BMSBond n s BMS Index, t = i=1 n ∑ (MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) i=1 where: – BMSsBond i, t - Semi-annual benchmark spread of bond i at time t – MVi, t - Market value of bond – i at time t Di, t - Effective duration of bond i at time t Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 4 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 2 Spread to Benchmark Curve 2.1 Methodology Spread to benchmark curve can be defined as a premium above the yield on a default-free bond necessary to compensate for additional risk associated with holding the bond. The default-free yield to maturity is found by a linear interpolation of two benchmark bonds with maturities being just above and just below the time to maturity of a bond. Selection criteria for benchmark bonds are: – Government bonds are selected as an approximation of a ‘default-free bond’ – The difference between maturities of a bond and the benchmark bonds is the smallest in absolute terms in comparison to other alternatives 6% 5% Spread to Benchmark Curve 4% 3% 2% 1% Benchmark Yield Bond Yield Interpolated Yield 0% 0.5 4.5 8.5 12.5 16.5 20.5 24.5 28.5 32.5 2.1.1 Annual Spread to Benchmark Curve The annual spread to benchmark of a bond i at time t is: 0 SBC i,ta = a a yi ,t − yInBM i ,t where: yia,t - Annualized yield of a bond i at time t a yInBM i ,t - Annualized yield of the interpolated benchmark of a bond i at time t Note that for benchmark bonds SBC i,ta = 0 Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 5 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 2.1.2 Semi-annual Benchmark Spread The semi-annual benchmark spread of bond i at time t is: 0 SBC i,ts = s s yi ,t − yInBM i ,t where: yis,t - Semi-annualized yield of bond i at time t s yInBM i ,t - Semi -annualized yield of the interpolated benchmark of a bond i at time t Note that for benchmark bonds SBC i,ts = 0 2.2 Index Spread to Benchmark Curve 2.2.1 Annual Index Spread to Benchmark Curve The annual index spread to benchmark curve is calculated as follows: a i,t ⋅ MVi,t ⋅ D i,t ) ∑ (SBC Bond n a SBC Index, t = i=1 n ∑ (MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) i=1 where: – a SBC Bond i,t - Annual spread to benchmark curve of bond – MVi, t - Market value of bond – i at time t i at time t Di, t - Effective duration of bond i at time t 2.2.2 Semi-annual Index Spread to Benchmark Curve The semi-annual index benchmark spread is calculated as follows: s i,t ⋅ MVi,t ⋅ D i,t ) ∑ (SBC Bond n s SBC Index, t = i=1 n ∑ (MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) i=1 where: – s SBC Bond i,t - Semi-annual spread to benchmark curve of bond – MVi, t - Market value of bond – i at time t i at time t Di, t - Effective duration of bond i at time t – Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 6 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 3 Spread to Libor Curve 3.1 Methodology Spread to Libor curve can be defined as a premium above the yield on Markit SWAP curve, constructed from Libor rates and ICAP swap rates, necessary to compensate for additional risk associated with holding the bond. 3.1.1 Annual Spread to Libor Curve The spread to benchmark of a bond i at time t is: 0 SLC ai ,t = a a y i ,t − y SWAP t where: y ia,t i ,t - Annualized yield of a bond i at time t a y SWAP t - Annualized value of Markit SWAP curve at time t 3.1.2 Semi-annual Spread to Libor Curve The spread to benchmark of a bond i at time t is: 0 SLC si ,t = s s y i ,t − y SWAP t where: y is,t i ,t - Semi- annualized yield of a bond i at time t s y SWAP t - Semi- annualized value of Markit SWAP curve at time t Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 7 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% Spread to Libor Curve 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% Markit SWAP Curve Bond Yield 1.0% 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 3.2 Index Spread to Libor Curve 3.2.1 Annual Index Spread to Libor Curve The index spread to Libor curve is calculated as follows: ∑ (SLC Bond i,t ⋅ MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) n a SLC Index, t = i=1 n ∑ (MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) i=1 where: – a SLC Bond i,t - Annual spread to benchmark curve of bond – MVi, t - Market value of bond – i at time t i at time t Di, t - Effective duration of bond i at time t 3.2.2 Semi-Annual Index Spread to Libor Curve The index spread to Libor curve is calculated as follows: ∑ (SLC Bond i,t ⋅ MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) n s SLC Index, t = i=1 n ∑ (MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) i =1 where: – s SLC Bond i,t - Semi-annual spread to benchmark curve of bond i at time t Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 8 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics – – i at time t Di, t - Effective duration of bond i at time t MVi, t - Market value of bond Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 9 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 4 Z-spread 4.1 Methodology The Z-spread is a measure of the spread the investor would realize over the entire benchmark zero coupon curve if the bond is held to maturity. 4.1.1 Benchmark Zero Coupon Curve Benchmark zero curve zt ( L) also known as spot rate curve is calculated form dirty prices of defined benchmark bonds. The following equation is solved using the Nelder-Mead-Simplex Method min = Pk ,t + Ak ,t − k =1 ! m ∑ n ∑ CFi k, j j =1 ⋅ ( 1 + zt (Lki , j ) ) −Lki , j 2 zt ( L) - Function constructed by natural splines with defined knots ( Pk ,t + Ak ,t ) - Dirty price of defined benchmark bond CFi ,kj - Cash flow of defined benchmark bond In the figure below the estimated zero curve is compared to annual yields of the benchmark bonds 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Spot Rate 0.0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Annual Yield 40 Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 45 50 10 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 4.1.2 Z-spread Calculation The Z-spread is calculated as the spread that will make the present value of the cash flows of respective bond equal to the market dirty price, when discounted at the benchmark spot rate plus the spread. The spread is found iteratively using the Newton method. In general, constant spread si , j over the spot curve zt (L ) for a bond at time t on an annual basis is calculated iteratively by using the Newton method: ∑CFi, j ⋅ (1 + zt (Li , j ) + si , j )−L n Pi ,t + Ai ,t = i, j j =1 (Pk ,t + Ak ,t ) - Dirty price of a bond CFi k, j - Cash flow of a bond 4.2 Index Z-spread The index Z-spread is calculated as follows: n ∑ (Z - spreadBond i,t ⋅ MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) Z - spreadIndex, t = i =1 n MVi,t ⋅ D i,t i =1 ∑ where: – MVi,t - Market value of a bond – i at time t Di, t - Effective duration of a bond i at time t Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 11 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 5 Z-spread over Libor Curve 5.1 Methodology The Z-spread over Libor Curve is a measure of the spread that the investor would realize over the entire ICAP curve, constructed from Libor rates and ICAP swap rates, if the bond is held to maturity. 5.1.1 Z-spread over Libor Curve Calculation The Z-spread is calculated as the spread that will make the present value of the cash flows of respective bond equal to the market dirty price, when discounted at the ICAP rate plus the spread. The spread is found iteratively using the Newton method. In general, Z-spread si , j over Markit SWAP curve zt (L ) for a bond at time t on an annual basis is calculated iteratively using the Newton method: Pi ,t + Ai ,t = ∑ CFi , j ⋅ (1 + zt ( Li , j ) + si , j ) n − Li , j j =1 ( Pk ,t + Ak ,t ) - Dirty price of a bond CFi ,kj - Cash flow of a bond 5.2 Index Z-spread over Libor The index Z-spread is calculated as follows: n ∑ (Z - spreadBond i,t ⋅ MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) Z - spreadIndex, t = i =1 n MVi,t ⋅ D i,t i =1 ∑ where: – Z - spread Bond i,t - Z-spread of a bond – – i at time t MVi, t - Market value of a bond i at time t Di, t - Effective duration of a bond i at time t Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 12 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 6 Option Adjusted Spread 6.1 Methodology Similar to Z-spread, OAS is the spread over the benchmark zero coupon curve realized if the bond is held until maturity. The major difference is the interest rate volatility assumption used in OAS. Due to the fact that interest rate changes can affect the cash flows of the security with embedded option the following relationship cab be highlighted: Z-spread = OAS + Option cost 6.1.1 Constructing Binomial Interest Rate Tree Two components are required to determine the interest rate tree: – Benchmark Zero Coupon Curve – Empirical Volatility Empirical volatility is annualized daily standard deviation of percentage change in daily yields from their mean. The number of observations equals to the number of trading days in one year period minus 5% of observations from each tail of the distribution of percentage change in daily yields. The daily standard deviation is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 trading days in a year. 6.1.2 OAS Calculation The OAS is calculated as the spread that will make the present value of the cash flows of the respective bond equal to the market dirty price when discounted at the benchmark spot rate plus the OAS spread. Given spot rates and empirical volatility the interest rate tree is derived using the iterative search method. 9.568% 5.383% 2.717% 0.989% 0.094% 3.553% 1.830% 0.742% 0.147% 1.319% 0.622% 0.203% 0.490% 0.212% 0.182% Interest rate tree of 2.5-year bond with semi-annual coupon payments. After the binomial interest rate tree is derived, the theoretical price of the bond is found by conventional backward induction of future cash flows. The OAS is found iteratively by using the Newton method, such that adding the spread to every node of the interest rate tree would make the present value of the cash-flows equal to the market dirty price of the bond. Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 13 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 6.2 Index OAS n ∑ (OASBond i,t ⋅ MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) OASIndex, t = i=1 n i=1 ∑ MVi,t ⋅ Di,t where: – OAS Bond i,t - OAS of a bond – – i at time t MVi, t - Market value of a bond i at time t Di, t - Effective duration of a bond i at time t Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 14 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 7 Asset Swap Spread 7.1 Methodology Markit SWAP curve, constructed from Libor rates and ICAP swap rates, is central to the process of asset swap spreads calculation. As soon as the curve is defined the present value of fixed and floating payoffs is calculated, and the asset swap spread is determined. The curve is interpolated to account for fixed and floating payoffs dates. 7.1.1 Asset Swap Spread Calculation To evaluate asset swap spread one needs to distinguish between fixed and floating payments. Given the frequency of fixed rate payments, the floating rate payment frequency is determined as follows: 1 2 3 4 Fixed rate paid yearly = Floating rate paid semiannually Fixed rate paid semiannually = Floating rate paid quarterly Fixed rate paid quarterly = Floating rate paid monthly else: Fixed frequency = Floating frequency Floating Rate Payments Fixed Rate Payments DFnFixed = 1 Fixed (SWAPn + 1)Ln /360 where: 1 (SWAPn + 1) LFloating / 360 n where: Markit SWAP curve rate at the next coupon payment day Number of days between next coupon payment day and calculation day (given bond’s day count convention) SWAPn LFixed n Fixed Rate Payments PVFixed = DFnFloating = T ∑ C t ⋅ DFtFixed + Principal T ⋅ DFtFixed t =1 where: C t - Coupon payment SWAPn LFloating n Markit SWAP curve rate at the next coupon payment day Number of days between next coupon payment day and calculation day (ACT/360 day count convention) Floating Rate Payments PVFloating = T L ∑ 360t ⋅ DFtFloating t =1 where: L t - Number of days between floating rate payments Given the present value of fixed and floating rate payments, the asset swap spread is calculated as follows: Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 15 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics ASW = PVFixed − DP PVFloating where: DP - Bond’s market price (dirty price) 7.2 Index Asset Swap Spread n ∑ (ASWBond i,t ⋅ MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) ASWIndex, t = i=1 n ∑ (MVi,t ⋅ Di,t ) i=1 where: – ASWBond i,t - Asset swap spread of a bond i at time t – MVi, t - Market value of a bond i at time t – Di, t - Effective duration of a bond i at time t Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 16 Markit iBoxx Spread Analytics 8 Further information For contractual or content issues please refer to Markit Indices Limited Goetheplatz 5 60313 Frankfurt am Main Germany Tel Fax +49 (0) 69 299 868 100 +49 (0) 69 299 868 149 E-mail internet: iBoxx@Markit.com indices.markit.com For technical issues please refer to E-mail iBoxx@Markit.com Licenses and Data iBoxx is a registered trademark of Markit Indices Limited. Markit Indices Limited owns all iBoxx data, database rights, indices and all intellectual property rights therein. A license is required from Markit Indices Limited to create and/or distribute any product that uses, is based upon or refers to any iBoxx index or iBoxx data. Ownership Markit Indices Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Markit Group. www.markit.com Other index products Markit Indices Limited owns, manages, compiles and publishes the iTraxx credit derivative indices and the iBoxxFX Trade Weighted Indices. Copyright © 2010, Markit Group Limited. All rights reserved. www.markit.com 17