LIMNOLOGY and OCEANOGRAPHY: METHODS Limnol. Oceanogr.: Methods 9, 2011, 432–442 © 2011, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc. Reconstructing the realized niche of phytoplankton species from environmental data: fitness versus abundance approach Nico Grüner1*, Christina Gebühr2, Maarten Boersma2, Ulrike Feudel1, Karen H. Wiltshire2,3, and Jan A. Freund1 1 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment (ICBM) – University of Oldenburg, P.O. Box 2503, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany 2 Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Biologische Anstalt Helgoland, P.O. Box 180, 27483 Helgoland, Germany 3 School of Engineering and Science, Jacobs University Bremen, Campus Ring 1, 28759 Bremen, Germany Abstract The classification of the ecological niche and the grouping of species into generalists and specialists are established ecological concepts. In this study, we compare two methods for the calculation of the realized ecological niche from long-term species data. As the first method, we present a new approach to reconstruct the realized niche not in terms of abundance but via a measure of fitness (optimal niche), which we call the Optimal Niche Estimate (ONE). The second method, the outlying mean index (OMI) analysis, is performed with abundance data for calculating the ecological niche. We demonstrate and discuss differences between methods by applying them to time series of three phytoplankton species from the Helgoland Roads long-term data set: Ceratium fusus, Odontella regia, and Paralia sulcata. the typically reduced n-dimensional hypervolume that is actually occupied by a species is called the realized niche, an expression also found in Hutchinson (1957). In experimental ecology, the transition from the fundamental to the realized niche is often paralleled by the step from laboratory experiments to field work. While in a typical laboratory experiment, all but a few abiotic factors are kept constant and biotic factors are preferably excluded, in the field all factors including the biotic or interaction milieu (McGill et al. 2006) (competitors, predators, and prey) are dynamic quantities and prone to fluctuations. Therefore, projections of the fundamental niche reconstructed from laboratory experiments may vastly differ from corresponding projections of the realized niche reconstructed from field data. Several statistical methods exist for describing the ecological niche of species. These include measuring the individual distribution of species between several environmental parameters (Colwell and Futuyma 1971), quantifying niche breadth using the proportional similarity index (Feinsinger et al. 1981) or determining species-environment relationships using ordination methods (ter Braak 1986; Dolédec and Chessel 1994). A relatively recent method measures the distance between the average habitat conditions used by a species and the average habitat conditions of the sampling area or period (Dolédec et al. 2000, after Hausser 1995). Because this method determines the marginality of a given species, it is called outlying mean index (OMI) analysis. The niche parameters are calculated by an ordination technique, weighting the environmental factors The concept of an ecological niche was introduced by J. Grinnell (1917). The concept was popularized by G. E. Hutchinson (1957) who formally identified a niche as an “ndimensional hypervolume”, where n-dimensional refers to the number of all ecological factors relative to a species and comprising all environmental conditions “which would permit the species S1 to exist indefinitely”. Because this definition considers a species under defined conditions, it represents the fundamental niche, a term Hutchinson credited R. H. MacArthur with. As a result of biological interactions a species hardly ever realizes the full size of its fundamental niche, and *Corresponding author: E-mail: gruener@icbm.de Acknowledgments We thank the crews of RV Aade and RV Ellenbogen for their dedication to the long-term monitoring program, and we acknowledge all those who measured the physicochemical parameters, temperature, and nutrients and counted phytoplankton samples at Helgoland Roads. We thank Germany`s National Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) for providing the wind speed and sunshine duration data. We thank John Smol and two anonymous reviewers for help in clarifying this manuscript and Sabrina Brüse for fruitful discussions. This study is partly funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and is part of the priority program 1162 “The Impact of Climate Variability on Aquatic Ecosystems: Match and Mismatch Resulting from Shifts in Seasonality and Distribution” (AQUASHIFT), and partly by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, FK2 03F0609A and 03F0603C). DOI 10.4319/lom.2011.9.432 432 Grüner et al. Realized niche: fitness versus abundance Sampling and data sets In 1962, the Biologische Anstalt Helgoland started a periodic water sampling and measurement at Helgoland Roads, North Sea (54°11.3¢N; 7°54.0¢E) (Wiltshire and Manly 2004). Surface water samples were taken three times per week until 1974 and five times per week thereafter (Franke et al. 2004). The water samples were taken from the surface as representative of the entire water column, which is generally well-mixed as a result of strong tidal currents (Hickel 1998). Daily identification and quantification of the phytoplankton community, the photometrical determination of inorganic nutrients (such as nitrite, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, and silicate) and the measurement of temperature, Secchi depth and salinity were carried out (Wiltshire 2004). Due to missing values of Secchi depth and silicate concentrations in the period from 1962-67, we used the long-term data of the phytoplankton and the physico-chemical parameters from 1968 to 2008. This longterm abiotic dataset was reviewed and quality controlled by Raabe and Wiltshire (2009) through a careful comparison with other available data sets [e.g., BSH (Hamburg), ICES (Copenhagen) and MUDAB (Hamburg)] for the North Sea. Sunshine duration (hours) and wind speed (Beaufort scale) were provided by Germany’s National Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD). The environmental variables included in the analysis are thus temperature, Secchi depth, salinity, concentrations of total dissolved inorganic nitrogen (sum of ammonium, nitrate and nitrite), phosphate, silicate, sunshine duration, and wind speed. As an additional environmental factor, we included this interaction milieu into our analysis. This interaction milieu was established by the sum of the abundances of 23 phytoplankton species as a measure for inter- and intraspecific competition. To include the latter, the three investigated species (Ceratium fusus, Odontella regia, and Paralia sulcata) here are part of this sum. No formal zooplankton was included into this data, although some of the dinoflagellates also graze on the diatoms. We took these 23 species as the most abundant and representative ones in this dataset. The species were: Ceratium furca, Ceratium fusus, Ceratium horridum, Ceratium lineatum, Ceratium tripos, Eucampia zodiacus, Guinardia delicatula, Guinardia striata, Noctiluca scintillans, Odontella aurita, Odontella regia, Odontella rhombus, Odontella sinensis, Paralia sulcata, Phaeocystis ssp., Porosira glacialis, Prorocentrum micans, Protoperidinium depressum, Scrippsiella ssp., Skeletonema costatum, Thalassionema nitzschioides, Thalassiosira rotula, Torodinium robustum. These species were representative species of this habitat (Hoppenrath 2004; Wiltshire and Dürselen 2004). Two species were pooled to genus level due to the lower abundances (Hoppenrath 2004). We demonstrated our niche analysis with three members of this list: Ceratium fusus, Odontella regia and Paralia sulcata. The OMI method was recently applied to the long-term data series of Paralia sulcata at Helgoland Roads, and hence to connect our analysis to previous work (Gebühr et al. 2009), we selected by the species’ abundance. The OMI method gives a niche for the analyzed species characterized by niche position and niche breadth. Niche position is a measure of the distance between the mean habitat conditions used by this species and the mean habitat conditions of the sampling site. Therefore, niche position describes the location (center) of the realized niche in the n-dimensional hypervolume. Niche breadth describes the tolerance of a species associated with the environmental parameters in the habitat, i.e., the expansion of the niche in the hypervolume (Dolédec et al. 2000; Heino and Soininen 2006; Tsiftsis et al. 2008). Until now, all quantitative methods of niche description were abundance-oriented. Here, we propose and investigate a fitness-oriented approach, the Optimal Niche Estimate (ONE). A species-specific optimal niche is reconstructed by extracting those moments of a growth period in which the selected species grows fastest. Hutchinson’s original notion defined a niche as the n-dimensional hypervolume where a species can exist indefinitely. In a seasonally varying environment, we can think of no easy way to separate conditions for indefinite existence from those which lead to extinction. Fastest growth, however, reflects optimal conditions. We estimate the volume of a correlation ellipsoid for the moments of fastest growth (high fitness) and assess its value in relation to that of the ellipsoid of environmental values for the full time range, much in the same way as is done in the OMI method. Through this relationship and a resampling procedure to test for the statistical significance, we identify specialists and more generalized species. Identifying fitness with fastest growth of the species, our approach places emphasis on the aspect of fitness and has to be seen in contrast to all approaches based on abundance. Here, we demonstrate the reconstruction of different niches of three phytoplankton species (Ceratium fusus, Odontella regia, and Paralia sulcata). Our application is based on the Helgoland Roads long-term data (1962-2008), a high frequency (on weekdays, Monday till Friday) time series comprising species cell counts (biotic factors) and physico-chemical parameters (abiotic factors) (Wiltshire 2004; Wiltshire et al. 2010). We discuss the differences between our ONE fitness approach and the abundance-based OMI analysis, recently applied to a part of the Helgoland Roads data series (Gebühr et al. 2009). Finally, we show how to extend and refine niche analysis by including features of correlation ellipsoids beyond the mere volume. Material and procedures Sampling site Helgoland is located in the German Bight about 65 km off the German coast in a hydrographically dynamic area, which can be under the influence of oceanic as well as coastal waters (Bauerfeind et al. 1990). The sampling site, Helgoland Roads (54°11.3¢N; 7°54.0¢E) is situated between the two small islands of Helgoland. 433 Grüner et al. Realized niche: fitness versus abundance • After one detected inflection point, the abundance curve has to fall below 10% of the annual maximum before accepting the next point. Because raw data exhibit high variability on short time scales, blooms with two closely connected peaks can appear. These interspersed dips presumably resulted from algal patches drifting through the narrow channel between the two islands at Helgoland. P. sulcata and added the two other species, O. regia as an example for a species occurring the whole year and C. fusus as a typical summer species. Therefore, these species were taken here as an example to demonstrate the procedure. The quality of the phytoplankton data were controlled by Wiltshire and Dürselen (2004). The comparison of the electronic database with the original lists recorded by the different persons and inclusion of available metadata were an integral part of this evaluation. Data preprocessing The abundance data were pretreated using a smoothing spline algorithm (Reinsch 1967), programmed and supplied by Mieruch and coworkers (Mieruch et al. 2010), and abiotic data were interpolated linearly to fill the short gaps (i.e., weekends, missing values due to storm events, etc.) in these time series. These and all other computations for the fitness-based approach (Method 1: ONE) were executed in MATLAB (MathWorks 2009). Method 1: Optimal niche estimate (ONE) Detection of the inflection points As a measure for the fastest growth of single phytoplankton species the inflection points of the smoothed abundance curves were computed. These points were extracted for every bloom event and as net growth was highest at these days, we propose that these indicated the times of highest fitness of the species. The extraction was performed by an algorithm obeying the following criteria (Fig. 1): • To exclude inflection points at rather low values of smoothed cell counts, we set an acceptance threshold at 10% of the annual maximum. The use of a percentage is due to the normal but large interannual variation of peaks. It is possible to detect more than one inflection point per year, in particular for species with a spring and summer bloom. The result of this algorithm was a list containing the times of maximal net growth (high fitness) for each species investigated. Principal component analysis and visualization It is complicated to visualize a large number of factors [in our case a total of nine: 8 abiotic environmental factors plus the biotic interaction milieu (sum of 23 species)]. Hence, to reduce this high dimensionality, we performed a principal component analysis (PCA) of the multivariate data series constituted by all considered environmental factors (McGarigal et al. 2000; Handl 2002; Jolliffe 2004). Fig. 2 shows how the variance was distributed among the nine principal components. This was the share of the total variance each principal component (PC) accounted for (PC1: 31%, PC2: 18%, PC3: 11%) and showed the consequences of the dimension reduction. The cumulative variance contains the variance explained by the considered PCs. According to the scree-plot criterion (Cattell 1966), the reduction to two dimensions would be appropriate. By taking the Kaiser-Guttmann criterion (Guttman 1954, Kaiser 1960), only PCs with an eigenvalue larger or equal to one should be included in the analysis. Because of the normalization before the PCA, PCs with an eigenvalue larger than one explain more variance than a single original variable (dotted line in • Only inflection points on ascending parts of the abundance curve were taken into account. Fig. 1. Detection of one inflection point (filled black circle) shown for an Fig. 2. Fractions of the total variance (left ordinate) and cumulative variance (right ordinate) distributed among the 9 principal components. algal bloom of C. fusus, normalized to the annual maximum (smoothed data, line: 10% of the annual maximum). 434 Grüner et al. Realized niche: fitness versus abundance Fig. 2). This was the case for the first three principal components of our PCA (third PC 0.99). We chose these criteria because of the simple and practical application. Another reason for the selection of three PCs was that we had to find an appropriate solution for the stretch of taking enough PCs and not losing too much information on the one hand and getting a high estimation error by increasing the dimension on the other hand (see “Assessment” for a test of the sensitivity to axes number). We applied this classical test, but one can argue if this is the best method. Therefore, we give the advice to check for the results of the PCA. The environmental factors included in this PCA should also be selected with care. One can see in this approach that we included some climate data from the DWD to the analysis, which we considered as important environmental factors for phytoplankton growth. Light, included through sunshine duration, was doubtlessly an important factor here. By including irrelevant factors, the reduction to lower the dimension might cause misinterpretations through unimportant information in the principal components. Geometrically speaking, a PCA translates the origin of the coordinate system into the data cloud’s center of gravity (defined by the vector of mean values) and aligns the basis vectors with the principal axes of the correlation ellipsoid (Brandt 1999) via rotations. The result of the PCA has same dimension than the original data set, but normally a projection on a lower dimensional space is aspired. A result of this projection is shown in Fig. 3 for the three species. The light gray points correspond to the bulk of the whole dataset and are species-unspecific whereas the bigger black circles indicate the environmental conditions at the inflection points, i.e., the instants of fastest growth and were highly species specific. This enabled a comparison of the environmental and the species-specific cluster. The varying lengths of the principal axes reflect different size of the hypervolume in different directions of projection space. To obtain one quantity for the niche width, we computed the product of the axes lengths. This quantity was the volume (up to a dimension specific proportionality factor, e.g., p for 2 d and 4/3p for 3 d) of the correlation ellipsoid that was estimated from the inflection point (ONE-) cluster. Since the length of the i-th principal axis was given by the square root of the i-th eigenvalue li of the covariance matrix (Brandt 1999) the product of the first n principal axis n lengths was given by the expression Π li . This volume of i =1 the correlation ellipsoid is an unbiased measure. With the lengths of the longest and shortest ellipsoid’s semiaxis, we further characterized the shape. We repeated the estimation of a covariance matrix but now using the whole dataset and computed the volume of the related ellipsoid in projection space. An illustration of these ellipsoids for the chosen three species is displayed in Fig. 4. Fig. 3. Species-unspecific principal component cluster (light gray points) and the species-specific inflection points (filled black circles). For a better visualization, here we display only the first two principal components. The light gray AP-cluster ellipsoid in Fig. 4 (here and in the following AP is used as an acronym for “all points”) is species435 Grüner et al. Realized niche: fitness versus abundance unspecific and is identical in all three panels. By contrast, the black ONE-ellipsoids, related to species-specific inflection points (filled black circles), exhibits significant variation thus demonstrating their species-specific character. A normalization of the ONE-ellipsoid to the AP-ellipsoid was executed and thereby the results were on a scale between 0 and the order of 1. The other advantage of this standardization was that the dimension specific geometrical factor dropped out when computing the ratio. Statistics To decide whether a species should be regarded as specialist or nonspecialist, we had to assess the normalized volume of the ONE-ellipsoid. Even so, this still left us with the uncertainty resulting from the fact that the estimation of correlation ellipsoids from a possibly small number of points introduces considerable estimation errors. To estimate the range of these statistical fluctuations, we adopted a resampling procedure: The same number of points used to estimate the ONEellipsoid was picked randomly from the AP-cluster and the corresponding volume was computed. This step was repeated 10000 times to test the null hypothesis, which assumes that the inflection points are scattered randomly across the APcluster, with the consequence that the volume of the ONEellipsoid was identical to the volume of the AP ellipsoid within statistical fluctuations. Binning the volumes resulting from the 10000 random pickings generates histograms like those shown in Fig. 5. The gray lines indicate the volume of the ONE-ellipsoids and the black bars show the resample’s volumes. The p-value was directly calculated as the fraction of ellipsoids that had a volume identical to or smaller than the ONE-ellipsoid. The significance of this computation depended on the number of inflection points. A small number of inflection points caused a high estimation error. In Fig. 6 (upper panel), we show results of a simulation with various choices for the number of points. Each vertical column corresponds to a specific choice of the number of points and related histograms (cf. Fig. 5) are coded by color. As before, the resamples were calculated 10000 times for each chosen number of points. As expected, with increasing number of points the observed contraction of the null statistics raised the chance of finding statistically significant normalized volumes. To delimit the range of the null statistics, we plotted the standard quantiles in addition to mean and median. Specialists (smaller normalized volumes) were relatively easy to identify, but generalists were harder to detect since the resampling histogram exhibits comparatively long tails. This pushed the upper quantiles to relatively large values and one had to reconsider a practical choice. To solve this problem, we added a measure for the range of specialization. This measure was constructed corresponding to Fig. 6; we extracted the species’ result and normalized it to the quantiles. In this perspective the 5% quantile corresponded to –1, the median to 0 and the 95% to 1. According to this procedure, we obtained a range of specialization, Fig. 4. Illustration of the correlation ellipsoids: inflection points in dark gray, whole data set in light gray. For a better visualization, here we display only the first two PCs. 436 Grüner et al. Realized niche: fitness versus abundance Fig. 6. Upper panel: Simulation of the resampling procedure with the original AP-cluster (gray area, upright histograms from Fig. 5 for different numbers of inflection points [4-180]). The lines show the different significance quantiles, the median and the mean of the normalized volumes. 10000 resamples are executed with the numbers of points in the theoretical ONE-ellipsoid noted on the x-axis. The volume on the y-axis is again normalized to the volume of the AP-cluster (CFS: C. fusus, ORG: O. regia, PSL: P. sulcata). Lower left panel: Simulation of the resampling procedure with different number of points taken out of an AP-cluster subset with normalized volume 0.32 (artificial specialist). Blue lines correspond to the upper panel, green lines to the subsamples, and the black squares identify the type II error of 5% and 1%, respectively. Lower right panel: Type II error as a function of the number of points, the two curves correspond to the different acceptance thresholds. species with –1 and below were classified as specialists and species with 1 and above were classified as generalists. The results for the species showed the range of (non-) specialization and C. fusus was classified as a specialist with –1.11, the other species were found in the intermediate range. O. regia was found close to the median with –0.11 and P. sulcata on the upper end with 0.74. Some studies of specialists and generalists have suffered from type II errors (false negative, was here a rejection of a true specialist\generalist). Telford et al. (2006) quantified the type II error through a simulation technique. We performed a similar simulation and quantified the type II error for an artificial specialist. To explain the method, we picked 8312 points out of our AP-cluster (14968 points) thus forming a subset with a normalized volume of 0.32 (i.e., the volume of the smallest ONE-ellipsoid for C. fusus). Again, we resampled this subset by randomly picking a given number of points. The null statistic was generated by 10000 repetitions of this procedure. The type II error was quantified as the fraction of resamples being rejected as a specialist, i.e., those resamples that fall above the acceptance threshold for a specialist (1% or 5% quantiles, Fig. 5. Histogram of the normalized volumes of 10000 randomly resampled ellipsoids and marked volume of the ONE-ellipsoid (indicated by black lines). The histogram shape depends on the species-specific number of points defining the ONE-ellipsoid. 437 Grüner et al. Realized niche: fitness versus abundance in the analysis and the dimension reduction will underestimate the environmental parameters. In Table 1, we compiled the results for two, three, and four dimensions. We continued with three dimensions, and we had a representation of 60% from the total variance and the possibility to show the results graphically. The main point here was to show that the results for the specialist were convincing for three axes. Table 1 shows that the p-value is lowest and this as the optimal solution. At four axes the estimation error was higher and the significance test failed more often, shown by the higher p-value. The decreasing trend of a smaller normalized volume for the specialist with the dimension is expected, because of adding axis with lower explained variance. This shows the advantage of the dimension reduction to lowering the risk of a high estimation error. It is not possible to give a general number of axes one should extract, and we give the advice to conduct a comparable test. We found the PCA to be a transparent method supported by the applied resampling technique, which provided levels of significance for empirical distributions and was assumption free. The calculated volumes are different between the three analyzed species. The length of the semiaxis explained the expansion in the subspace. An extreme value for one of these lengths indicated an extremely (small or large) axis and could be a useful in the interpretation of volumes (here we do not have such an extreme value for one of the axes). The normalized volume for C. fusus was bigger for only two dimensions, for three and four it stayed more or less constant on a lower value. The expansion of the cluster for O. regia was smallest for three dimensions, two dimensions and four dimensions showed a trend toward bigger volumes. By a comparison with the OMI method, the result for three dimensions seemed to be most appropriate. P. sulcata showed the biggest volume for three dimensions, because Paralia sulcata changed the timing of presence over the whole data set and the average niche should show a broad expansion. OMI Niche position describes the location in the hypervolume, i.e., low numbers describe a position close to the average environmental conditions (center) and vice versa. The niche breadth describes the tolerance of a species, i.e., the expansion of the niche in the hypervolume. The niche positions for all shown as blue lines in the lower left panel in Fig. 6). The values resulting for various numbers of points are plotted in the lower right panel in Fig. 6. Already for 30 points, we find a type II error less than 5%. Method 2: Outlying mean index (OMI) The niche position and niche breadth of the three phytoplankton species were determined with the OMI analysis using R v.2.12.1 (R Core Development Team 2010) and the software package ADE-4 (Thioulouse et al. 1997). This multivariate technique quantifies niche parameters along several environmental gradients (Dolédec et al. 2000; Lappalainen and Soininen 2006) by measuring the distance between the average habitat conditions used by a species and the average habitat conditions of the sampling area or period (Dolédec et al. 2000, after Hausser 1995). The parameters are computed by an ordination technique and weighted by the abundance. The results are two measures, niche position and niche breadth. The position describes the location of the niche in the hypervolume and the breadth describes the corresponding expansion (Dolédec et al. 2000; Heino and Soininen 2006; Tsiftsis et al. 2008). With an analyses of only one species (or habitat), it is hardly possible to tell if this is a specialist or a generalist, the classification is therefore done in a comparative way. Niche position and niche breadth were calculated on a yearly basis for the abundance data and with biotic interaction milieu. The ONE gave a niche for the complete timeframe and can be interpreted as an envelope over yearly niches. In contrast, the yearly niche of the OMI analysis may be interpreted as the realized niche for the species for each single year. Assessment ONE The extent of the ONE-ellipsoid (Fig. 4) of C. fusus is visibly smaller than that of the AP ellipsoid but the spread of the ONE-ellipsoid of P. sulcata is nearly the same as the AP ellipsoid. O. regia is found to be in an intermediate position. This visual impression is confirmed by the obtained numerical values. Table 1 shows the different amounts of total variance by the PCA after extracting different numbers of PC. Extracting the appropriate number of PCs after applying the PCA has to be taken seriously. By taking fewer axes than optimal, an amount of information is lost and not represented Table 1. Results for the extraction of a different number of PCs calculated for the three species [d: dimension (number of extracted PCs)]; n: number of inflection points, l max (min): length of the longest (shortest) semiaxis, percentage of total variance: 49.08 for 2 d, 60.1 for 3 d and 70.84 for 4 d. d norm. volume l max l min p-value 2 Ceratium fusus (n=61) 3 4 0.598 1.191 1.0204 0.002 0.319 1.2613 0.5055 < 10–6 0.222 1.2083 0.465 0.016 2 Odontella regia (n=94) 3 4 1.148 1.7985 1.5538 0.903 438 0.765 1.7405 0.6601 0.456 1.072 1.8169 0.7542 0.802 2 Paralia sulcata (n=133) 3 4 0.833 1.6439 1.295 0.058 1.245 1.8062 1.1015 0.836 0.816 1.6903 0.6859 0.689 Grüner et al. Realized niche: fitness versus abundance Fig. 8. Mean niche positions (filled dots) and mean niche breadths (error bars) of Ceratium fusus, Odontella regia, and Paralia sulcata from 1968 to 2008. species fluctuated for the time period from 1968 to 2008. The niche breadth for Ceratium fusus was generally very small indicating a narrow niche (Fig. 7). In general, the lower values in niche breadth and the higher values in niche position indicated that C. fusus grows under more specialized conditions (Fig. 7). No typical pattern could be found for the niche position for Odontella regia but some extreme deviations of niche position in the abundance-based analyses were found. Also, there was no permanent shift of the niche position within the investigated time period and the average niche position was not significantly higher than that of C. fusus (Figs. 7, 8). From the high values of niche position occupied by O. regia, one would expect a more specialized species, but the niche breadth was variable within the investigated time period and showed higher values thus suggesting that O. regia was more of a generalist. Because of these diametrical descriptors, O. regia could not be safely classified. In contrast to both other algae, Paralia sulcata showed significantly lower values in niche position, explaining an occurrence at the average conditions (Figs. 7, 8) of the environment. More importantly, the niche breadth was significantly higher than the one of C. fusus (Figs. 7, 8). Both observations indicated that P. sulcata is a generalist. The niche of P. sulcata was rather narrow in the period from 1980 to 1996 and then widens abruptly, which suggested a transition from a more specialized to a more generalized strain (see Gebühr et al. 2009). Discussion Comparison of ONE and OMI The ONE as well as the OMI analyses detected different classifications for the three phytoplankton species (C. fusus, O. regia, and P. sulcata), which can be explained by all three algae living in different habitat conditions. P. sulcata and O. Fig. 7. Annual niche positions (filled dots) and niche breadths (error bars) of Ceratium fusus, Odontella regia, and Paralia sulcata (cf. Gebühr et al. 2009) from 1968 to 2008. 439 Grüner et al. Realized niche: fitness versus abundance cific effects, we performed a cross comparison employing both methods, the single point ONE analysis and the abundance weighted OMI analysis, with both approaches, abundance, and fitness. This comparison shows that a reconstruction of the ecological niche can be accomplished via both approaches and are not method specific (see Web Appendix A for detailed description). The main objective of our study was to investigate the consequences for niche reconstruction when changing from abundance- to a fitness-based approach. This fitness-based approach explains the ecology of phytoplankton species in a new way. The fitness-based niche is ecologically more meaningful than the abundance-based niche, because indefinite existence (Hutchinson 1957) is rather a question of fitness than abundance. Identifying fitness with sheer abundance can be misleading since highest abundance specifies a moment when net growth ceases. Several other reasons may explain the stagnation and subsequent decline of population size, for instance, increased grazing pressure or viral infection, and we admit that reduced net growth expressing poor fitness is only one of them—but a not so unlikely one. By contrast, most rapid net growth can only be explained by high fitness—sufficiently high to overcompensate for all losses. For bloom-forming species fitness is linked with instantaneous growth rates, in other cases other fitness indicators might be more relevant, e.g., a high metabolic rate or a high cell division rate. Both methods (ONE and OMI) of ecological niche classification are based on multivariate data analysis techniques. Since the OMI was already discussed at length in other publications (Dolédec et al. 2000; Lappalainen and Soininen 2006) we will here devote remaining space to the novel ONE method. The ONE employed in this study is applicable to other bloom-forming species, i.e., to species which exhibit rapid growth within a short period as, for instance, zooplankton or bacteria. The ONE method allows a classification of these planktonic species, and the results can be interpreted in ecological terms. The standard way in phytoplankton ecology is a classification of groups or functional groups and not single species. With our detailed data set, we have the opportunity to do this on a species-specific level. The optimal niche can be discussed and interpreted for every species with respect to its fitness, here the fastest growth. In this work, a classification of three exemplary species is reached. C. fusus is found to be a specialist and P. sulcata a more general species. O. regia is a representative of species, which can hardly be classified by ONE and is found in the intermediate range of specialization. One advantage of the method is that the normalized volume gives a well interpretable degree of specialization for every species and does not lead to a simplistic binary classification into specialists and generalists. Reconstruction methods for yearly niches (like the OMI) should always be complemented with those across several years (like the ONE) since both have their advantages and drawbacks. The risk of yearly niche analyses is to over-inter- regia occurred throughout the whole year and thereby experience a wide range of environmental parameters whereas C. fusus typically occurs in the summer months and is therefore more specialized. With the OMI analysis, it is possible (but not restricted to) to analyze the species on a yearly basis, and this is a very interesting and fascinating aspect. The advantage of the detection of changes in the ecology and the influence of shifts in the environment on the species can be noteworthy information. According to both methods, C. fusus is a clear specialist whereas, according to the niche breadth, P. sulcata is a generalist. C. fusus is typically found in summer, where the water temperature is elevated, and the day length longer. Typical for this alga is the independence of silicate because dinoflagellates do not need silicate for their valve formation like diatoms do. This matches the typical summer conditions found at Helgoland Roads in agreement with the occurrence of C. fusus in late spring and summer times. P. sulcata is an alga which recently has begun to be present throughout the whole year, reflecting the fact that the species complex can now tolerate a wider range of environmental conditions (cf. Gebühr et al. 2009). P. sulcata seems to be well adapted to the seasonally changing environmental parameters in this habitat. In the OMI analyses, O. regia takes on an intermediate position. The ONE method reaches no significant result for O. regia. In the OMI analysis, the intermediate position is reflected by the combination of a higher niche position, suggesting a specialist, and a larger niche breadt, which indicates the generalist. O. regia is a large centric diatom species that also occurs throughout the whole year in the water column at Helgoland Roads but the abundance is not as high as for P. sulcata and the species is not detected so frequently over the investigated time period. This might be the reason that the yearly ecological niche of O. regia cannot be described by the OMI consistently, but this should not be the case for the ONE method. Here it is based on the expansion of the ONE-ellipsoid and so an average or envelope niche. The OMI method gives a yearly niche and the classification is based on these changes over the years. The problem with this conception is the drastic change from one year to another, and it has to be discussed, if this is biologically meaningful - is it conceivable, that one species has a completely different niche in two consecutive years? The reasons for these changes can be found in the changing environment, but a species cannot adapt in such a short time span. This situation could only be explained by the presence of different adapted strains in the system. The classical concept of the ecological niche explains the cloud of factors a species can persist; this is reached by the ONE method in a new, but comparable way. An analysis of changes or trends is not yet integrated and a sliding analysis across few years is, because of the loss of a statistical significance, not feasible. An evaluation of the Helgoland Roads dataset in this direction is left to future studies. To disentangle method-specific from approach-spe440 Grüner et al. Realized niche: fitness versus abundance ———, and D. Chessel. 1994. Co-inertia analysis: an alternative method for studying species-environment relationships. Freshw. Biol. 31:277-294 [doi:10.1111/j.1365-2427. 1994.tb01741.x]. Feinsinger, P., E. E. Spears, and R. W. Poole. 1981. A simple measure of niche breadth. Ecology 62:27-32 [doi:10.2307/ 1936664]. Franke, H., F. Buchholz, and K. H. Wiltshire. 2004. Ecological long-term research at Helgoland (German Bight, North Sea): retrospect and prospect—an introduction. Helgoland Mar. Res. 58:223-229 [doi:10.1007/s10152-004-0197-z]. Gebühr, C., K. H. Wiltshire, N. Aberle, J. E. van Beusekom, and G. Gerdts. 2009. Influence of nutrients, temperature, light and salinity on the occurrence of Paralia sulcata at Helgoland Roads, North Sea. Aquat. Biol. 7:185-197 [doi:10.3354/ab00191]. Greve, W., F. Reiners, J. Nast, and S. Hoffmann. 2004. Helgoland Roads meso- and macrozooplankton time-series 1974 to 2004: lessons from 30 years of single spot, high frequency sampling at the only off-shore island of the North Sea. Helgoland Mar. Res. 58:274-288 [doi:10.1007/s10152004-0191-5]. Grinnell, J. 1917. The niche-relationships of the California thrasher. Auk 34:427-433. Guttman, L. 1954. Some necessary conditions for commonfactor analysis. Psychometrika 19:149-161 [doi:10.1007/ BF02289162]. Handl, A. 2002. Multivariate analysemethoden. Springer. Hausser, J. 1995. Säugetiere der Schweiz. Mammifères de la Suisse. Mammiferi della Svizzera. Berlin, Germany: Birkhäuser Verlag Heino, J., and J. Soininen. 2006. Regional occupancy in unicellular eukaryotes: a reflection of niche breadth, habitat availability or size-related dispersal capacity? Freshw. Biol. 51:672-685 [doi:10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01520.x]. Hickel, W. 1998. Temporal variability of micro- and nanoplankton in the German Bight in relation to hydrographic structure and nutrient changes. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 55:600-609 [doi:10.1006/jmsc.1998.0382]. Hoppenrath, M. 2004. A revised checklist of planktonic diatoms and dinoflagellates from Helgoland (North Sea, German Bight). Helgoland Mar. Res. 58:243-251 [doi:10.1007/s10152-004-0190-6]. Hutchinson, G. E. 1957. Concluding remarks—Cold Spring Harbour Symposium. Quant. Biol. 22:415-427. Jolliffe, I. T. 2004. Principal component analysis. Springer. Kaiser, H. 1960. The application of electronic computer to factor analysis. Educ. Psychol. Meas. 20:141-151 [doi:10.1177/ 001316446002000116]. Lappalainen, J., and J. Soininen. 2006. Latitudinal gradients in niche breadth and position-regional patterns in freshwater fish. Die Naturwissenschaften 93:246-50 [doi:10.1007/ s00114-006-0093-2]. MathWorks. 2009. MATLAB®. The MathWorks. pret short-term fluctuations and to underestimate the true niche size. The disadvantage of niche analyses across several years is that, caused by lack of statistical significance, they may overlook genuine changes. While yearly niche analyses have the potential to uncover such shifts, the envelope property of across year analyses avoids the problems of over-interpretation and underestimation. Comments and recommendations Here we propose a new approach to detect the ecological niche based on a fitness parameter. Our ONE analysis is a new approach to classify the ecological niche. An application to other data are conceivable given an appropriate definition of the moments of highest fitness. We applied a PCA in this analysis, but it is not essential. We could calculate the niche volume in an n-dimensional space as well, but this could lead to higher estimation errors. If the original data set is low dimensional, this would give an appropriate and satisfying result. By an inclusion of existing zooplankton abundance data (Greve et al. 2004), the grazing pressure on phytoplankton species at Helgoland can be accounted for. Grazers can be included, whereby the effect of grazers on the maximal growth rate is not expected to be large. In line with Hutchinson’s niche definition we have, so far, only evaluated ellipsoid volumes plus maximal and minimal semiaxis. More ecologically relevant information may be contained in further geometrical features of the ONE-ellipsoid, e.g., the location of its center, i.e., the equivalent to the niche position, or the specific orientation of its principal axes. Moreover, the by-now 45 years range of the Helgoland Roads data seems sufficient for a sliding or split window analysis aiming to detect statistically significant changes (trends, break points) of niche parameters and interpret them in an ecological context. Extensions of our analysis in these directions will be left to future research. References Bauerfeind, E., W. Hickel, U. Niermann, and H. V. Westernhagen. 1990. Phytoplankton biomass and potential nutrient limitation of phytoplankton development in the southeastern North Sea in spring 1985 and 1986. Neth. J. Sea Res. 25:131-142 [doi:10.1016/0077-7579(90)90014-8]. Brandt, S. 1999. Datenanalyse, 4th ed. Spektrum Akademischer Verlag. Cattell, R. 1966. The scree test for the number of factors. multivariate behavioral research 1:245-276 [doi:10.1207/s1532 7906mbr0102_10]. Colwell, R. K., and D. J. Futuyma. 1971. On the measurement of niche breadth and overlap. Ecology. 52:567-576. [doi:10.2307/1934144]. Dolédec, S., D. Chessel, and C. Gimaret-Carpentier. 2000. Niche separation in community analysis: A new method. Ecology 81:2914-2927. 441 Grüner et al. Realized niche: fitness versus abundance McGarigal, K., S. Cushman, and S. Stafford. 2000. Multivariate statistics for wildlife and ecology research. Springer [doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-1288-1]. McGill, B. J., B. J. Enquist, E. Weiher, and M. Westoby. 2006. Rebuilding community ecology from functional traits. Trends Ecol. Evol. 21:178-85 [doi:10.1016/j.tree.2006. 02.002]. Mieruch, S., J. Freund, U. Feudel, M. Boersma, S. Janisch, and K. Wiltshire. 2010. A new method of describing phytoplankton blooms: Examples from Helgoland Roads. J. Mar. Sys. 79:36-43 [doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.06.004]. R Core Development Team. 2010. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Raabe, T., and K. Wiltshire. 2009. Quality control and analyses of the long-term nutrient data from Helgoland Roads, North Sea. J. Sea Res. 61:3-16 [doi:10.1016/j.seares.2008.07. 004]. Reinsch, C. 1967. Smoothing by spline functions. Numerische Mathematik 10:177-183 [doi:10.1007/BF02162161]. Telford, R. J., V. Vandvik, and H. J. B. Birks. 2006. How many freshwater diatoms are pH specialists? Ecol. Lett. 9:E1-E5 [doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00875.x]. ter Braak, C. J. 1986. Canonical correspondence analysis: A New Eigenvector Technique for multivariate direct gradient analysis. Ecology 67:1167-1179 [doi:10.2307/1938672]. Thioulouse, J., D. Chessel, S. Dolèdec, and J. Olivier. 1997. ADE-4: a multivariate analysis and graphical display software. Stat. Comput. 7:75-83 [doi:10.1023/A:101851353 0268]. Tsiftsis, S., I. Tsiripidis, V. Karagiannakidou, and D. Alifragis. 2008. Niche analysis and conservation of the orchids of east Macedonia (NE Greece). Acta Oecol. 33:27-35 [doi:10.1016/j.actao.2007.08.001]. Wiltshire, K. H. 2004. Editorial. Helgoland Mar. Res. 58:221222 [doi:10.1007/s10152-004-0198-y]. ———, and B. F. Manly. 2004. The warming trend at Helgoland Roads, North Sea: phytoplankton response. Helgoland Mar. Res. 58:269-273 [doi:10.1007/s10152-0040196-0]. ———, and C. Dürselen. 2004. Revision and quality analyses of the Helgoland Reede long-term phytoplankton data archive. Helgoland Mar. Res. 58:252-268 [doi:10.1007/ s10152-004-0192-4]. ———, A. Kraberg, I. Bartsch, M. Boersma, H.-D. Franke, J. A. Freund, C. Gebühr, G. Gerdts, K. Stockmann, and A. Wichels. 2010. Helgoland Roads, North Sea: 45 years of change. Estuar. Coasts 33:295-310 [doi:10.1007/s12237009-9228-y]. Submitted 5 April 2011 Revised 23 August 2011 Accepted 30 August 2011 442