AC bi Mil fOil A Cubic Mile of Oil
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A C bi Mil f Oil A Cubic Mile of Oil Realities and Options for Averting the Global Energy Crisis Ripudaman Malhotra, Ph.D. SRI International Menlo Park NETL, Pittsburgh NETL, Pittsburgh September 16, 2011 Energy Challenge: Tough Choices Ahead Time to reframe the debate about energy supply Time to reframe the debate about energy supply • Current practices of energy production and consumption are unsustainable • Energy use is central to our way of life, and the consequences of not E i t lt f lif d th f t meeting future energy demands are dire • Tension between protecting the environment and social justice • A comprehensive energy policy must acknowledge the magnitude of the problem How Much Energy Do We Use? A good question to ask but we confront a tower of Babel A good question to ask, but we confront a tower of Babel • Different units for different sources – – – – Gallons or barrels for oil Gallons or barrels for oil Tons or BTUs for coal SCFs for natural gas kWh for electrical energy kWh for electrical energy • Lack of uniform units – Presents a serious impediment to meaningful discussion meaningful discussion – Creates confusion: millions, billions, trillions, quadrillions!!! A Cubic Mile of Oil – CMO Understandable unit: mental image Understandable unit: mental image CMO is a unit of energy coined by SRI’s Hew Crane in the 1970s while waiting in line to buy gasoline His realization: annual global oil consumption was then in line to buy gasoline. His realization: annual global oil consumption was then approaching one cubic mile! Statue of Liberty Visualizing a Cubic Mile of Oil 1 cubic mile = 1,000 sports arenas CMO: Cubic Mile of Oil Equivalent A unit appropriate for global energy flows A unit appropriate for global energy flows – 1 CMO ؆ 1.1 trillion gallons of oil 26 Billion (109) bbl oil 26 Billion (10 ) bbl oil • 1 CMO ؆ current annual worldwide oil consumption • 1 CMO is equivalent to: – 153 153 Quadrillion (10 Quadrillion (1015) Btu (Quads) ) Btu (Quads) – 6.4 Billion (109) tons of hard coal – 15.3 Trillion (1012) kWh electricity (At 10 000 Btu/kWh; not 3412 Btu/kWh) (At 10,000 Btu/kWh; not 3412 Btu/kWh) 8 hours of cardio ؆ 1kWh ؆ 8 hours of cardio ؆ 1kWh ؆ 0.1 gal of oil 0 1 gal of oil 1 Btu ؆ the energy from a the energy from a burning match Annual Global Energy Consumption We are living off our inheritance how long will it last? We are living off our inheritance – how long will it last? Geothermal <0.01 Wind + Photovoltaic + Solar Thermal <0.03 Solar Thermal <0 03 Biomass 0.19 Hydroelectric 0.17 Nuclear 0.15 Oil 1.06 Natural gas 0.61 Coal 0.81 Total 3.0 CMO/yr 2006 Data How Do We Use Energy? More than a third of primary energy goes into producing i d i electricity, which is then Commercial/Residen used in other sectors Distribution after apportioning the energy for electricity into sectors that use it tial 13% Transportation Transportation 29% 29% Commercial/Residential 39% Electricity 36% Industrial 22% Industrial 32% Where Is Energy Produced and Consumed? Asia Pacific and North America produce more energy than the Middle East Region; f p gy g ; they also consume more! 1 1.0 Hydropower Nuclear Power 0.9 0.9 Coal 0.8 0.8 Gas Oil 0.7 0.7 C CMO 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 00 North America Central/South America Europe Russian Group Asian/Pacific Middle East/ Sub‐Saharan North Africa Africa What Drives Energy Consumption? Standard of living not population alone drives energy use Standard of living, not population alone, drives energy use 2000 1600 1400 1200 600 Centrral/South Am merica 400 200 Additional 1.48 CMO Mid‐EEast/North Africa 800 Europe (0.51) 1000 Russian Gro oup (0.26) Global Average North Americca (0.72) Per Capita Annu ual Energy Consu umption (GO) 1800 Additional 0.68 CMO A i /P ifi (0 94) Asia/Pacific (0.94) 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Population (Millions) 5000 Sub‐Saharan Africa (0.06) 6000 7000 Projected Energy Demand by 2050 Energy needed to support the world’ss 5.5% GDP growth rate Energy needed to support the world 5 5% GDP growth rate Σ 10.00 9.00 Energy y Demand: CM MO 8.00 2.6% 3.0 CMO/yr today 3 0 CMO/yr today 9.0 CMO/yr in 2050? 270 CMO 7.00 1 8% 1.8% 214 CMO 6.00 5.00 0 8% 0.8% 4.00 163 CMO 3.00 2.00 Variable profile 179 CMO 1.00 0.00 0 00 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 2060 Reserves Depend on Technology and Price Additional resources become viable at higher prices Additional resources become viable at higher prices How Much Oil, Gas, and Coal Do We Have Left? We have plenty of fossil fuels, but mostly in unconventional sources p y ff f , y Oil 46 94 Gas Reserves Coal 42 66 120 Additional Resource Reserves 400 5,000 1500 Unconventional Tar sands, oil shales Unconventional Gas hydrates Additional Resource Additional Resource Their continued use increases atmospheric CO Their continued use increases atmospheric CO2 levels They will be needed while we switch to other sources The Sun Offers 23,000 CMO/yr And we are looking for just a few CMO per year, but… gf j f p y , Questions to Consider • Does the source have CMO‐scale potential to supply energy? • What infrastructure is required for large‐scale CMO use? – Is it plug‐and‐play? – New pipelines and transmission structure? • What is its environmental footprint? – Energy return on fossil energy invested? – Competing land use issues? – Biodiversity, habitat destruction? • Can it compete with oil at $50/bbl, the cost of producing deep oil? – If not today, in the foreseeable future? Competition for green energy comes from cheap fossil sources, not other green sources 15 Changes in Global Energy Mix Have Occurred Before Transitions take scores of years Transitions take scores of years 100 Percentt Total Primary EEnergy from Various Resources 90 Wood/Biomass 80 Coal 70 60 ~1960 50 ~1940 40 30 Oil ~1880 Coal 20 Gas Nuclear 10 Oil 0 1850 1870 1890 Wood/Biomass Hydro 1910 1930 Year 1950 1970 1990 2010 Why So Long to Get to Scale? Many roadblocks along the way Many roadblocks along the way • Expansion slowed by – Inertia of the incumbent system y (sheer size) – Market acceptability (cost) – Infrastructure requirements – Lack of trained personnel – NIMBY, NOPE, and BANANA* • More rapid penetration possible p p p when aided by – Strategic importance to military – High‐value products for niche markets g p * Not in my backyard Not on planet earth Build absolutely nothing, anywhere near anything! Jimmy Margulies, The Record, New Jersey, 2006 17 Producing 1 CMO Per Year from Various Sources E Enormous task requiring trillions of dollars t k i i t illi f d ll • Hydro: 200 dams • 1 every quarter for 50 years 1 every quarter for 50 years 18 GW with 50% availability (3 Gorges Dam) • Nuclear: 2,500 plants 1 a week for 50 years y 900 MW with 90% av. • Solar CSP: 7,700 solar parks 3 a week for 50 years 900 MW with 25% av. • Windmills: 3 million 1200 a week for 50 years 1.65 MW with 35% av. • Solar Roofs: 4.2 billion 250k roofs a day for 50 years 2.1 kW with 20% av. 2 1 kW ith 20% Energy and Economic Growth C Correlation but not a destiny l ti b t t d ti En nergy per Caapita in Gallo ons of Oil 60 USA from 1985 to 2005 40 20 Ireland China • •• ••• 0 0 $10k $20k GDP per Capita $30k $40k Value Added per Unit Energy Consumed in the U.S. Industrial Sector 1985 2005 Industrial Sector, 1985–2005 70 60 Value Ad dded (dollars/GO O) 50 Manufacturing 40 Nonmanufacturing Combined 30 20 10 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 Year 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 What Is the Path Forward? Innovation is needed on all fronts to meet future energy demand f f gy • Reducing demand from 9 to 6 CMO will be a major international effort requiring new technologies • Our planning cycle needs to – Last for 40 years not four – Transcend the prevailing price of oil p gp • We need a family of innovations – Short term: public education, efficiency, conservation, CSP, nuclear – Intermediate term: Unconventional hydrocarbons, new engines, biofuels, Intermediate term: Unconventional hydrocarbons, new engines, biofuels, electrify transportation – Long term: Thin‐film PV, nuclear fusion,??? • “AND” is the operative conjunction p j – To make an impact, we need all technology options: • Efficiency AND conservation, AND nuclear AND solar AND wind AND… 21 Plant a Tree Urgent because we are late g The great French marshal Lyautey once asked his gardener to plant a tree. The gardener objected that the tree was slow growing and would not reach maturity for 100 years. The marshal replied, “In that case, there is no time to lose; plant it this afternoon!” Thank You Thank You Headquarters: Silicon Valley sri.com/energy i / SRI International 333 Ravenswood Avenue Menlo Park, CA 94025‐3493 650.859.2000 Washington, D.C. SRI International 1100 Wilson Blvd Suite 2800 1100 Wilson Blvd., Suite 2800 Arlington, VA 22209‐3915 703.524.2053 Don’t waste Be informed Get involved Princeton, New Jersey SRI International Sarnoff 201 Washington Road Princeton, NJ 08540 609.734.2553 Additional U.S. and Additional U S and international locations www.sri.com Nuclear Power An option we cannot ignore An option we cannot ignore • Opportunity – Established scalable technology – Low footprint – Ample reserves • Risks – Fears • Radiation Exposure • Explosions – Political Challenges • Nuclear proliferation • Terrorism – Technical T h i l • Long‐term storage – Cost (in part fed by fears) • Nuclear fusion, if Nuclear fusion if realized, would ameliorate these risks realized would ameliorate these risks Direct Solar Storage systems are needed Storage systems are needed • Cost – PV about 35 cents/kWh – Concentrating Solar Power competitively priced • Intermittency – Reduces availability to 20% y – Need > 4 times the installed capacity • Location – Solar Solar homes and offices (PV): close to use, homes and offices (PV): close to use, but not enough – Utility scale systems: remote from population centers – Electricity transmission limited to < 1000 km Wind Power Runs up against NIMBY Runs up against NIMBY • Pluses – Huge potential: several CMO per year – Relatively low cost • Minuses – – – – Intermittent: 25‐30% availability; needs gas backup and/or storage Dilute: 8‐10 MW/sq. mile Whose land? Habitat? Often remote from energy consuming centers Biomass The only renewable that produces storable fuel The only renewable that produces storable fuel • Lots of hope and hype • Global potential: 0.5 to 2 CMO Global potential: 0 5 to 2 CMO • May not reduce greenhouse gases – Some options release more greenhouse gases than direct use of fossil fuels than direct use of fossil fuels • Can strain water supplies • Can disrupt food supply and result in undesirable land‐use practices d i bl l d ti Residential and Commercial Buildings Low‐cost Low cost options abound options abound • Consumes about 51% of primary energy – 39% in operations: HVAC, lighting, appliances – 12% iin materials: t i l steel, t l concrete, t glass, l sheetrock h t k • Energy saving practices can pay off – Better insulation, efficient lighting, efficient heating • Smart grid – Allows for added savings and increased use of wind and solar sources • Green construction materials Commercial Residential 28 The Cost Challenge Meeting the Chindia g Price • Opportunity in developed countries – Over $500 billion in renovations in the US – Impact of adopting green practices is ~0.1 CMO/yr • Bigger opportunity in developing nations – New construction equivalent q to the entire US is projected for China/India over the next 10 years – Several trillion dollars • Potential impact of adopting green practices CHINDIA – Ca. 2 CMO/yr – Cost of using green materials in construction is prohibitive M j innovations Major i ti needed d d tto produce d costt effective ff ti solutions l ti 29 Efficiency and Conservation Low‐hanging Low hanging fruit fruit • Efficiency: Using less energy to do what we do – Easiest and most economical path – Does not go all the way – Historically, we end up increasing total Historically we end up increasing total consumption! • Conservation: Avoid what we need not do – Tough to change lifestyles – Switch to high‐density urban living and mass transit anyone? Vegetarian diet? d – Can have a substantial impact 1 CMO ؆ 100 billion CFLs! Boiling‐water reactor g NPR, 3/15/11
