Singapore Company Focus Sheng Siong Group Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Bloomberg: SSG SP | Reuters: SHEN.SI DBS Group Research . Equity 13 Jan 2015 BUY S$0.70 STI : 3,344.89 More positives ahead Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.82 (Prev S$ 0.78) Reason for Report : Post-conference notes Potential Catalyst: Market share gains, margin expansion DBS vs Consensus: More conservative SSSG and store growth outlook Buoyant outlook on store openings, margin and earnings growth Strengthening position in the mass market segment Analyst Alfie YEO +65 6682 3717 alfieyeo@dbs.com Raise FY15F and FY16F earnings by 5% on higher gross margin expectation Valuations below historical and peer average, maintain BUY with higher $0.82 TP Andy SIM CFA +65 6682 3718 andysim@dbs.com Positive on store openings, margins and long-term potential. We remain positive on the stock for three reasons: 1) more stores are expected to open, starting with SSG’s new Tampines store, which is scheduled to open this month; 2) margins have further room to improve through increased bulk handling activities (currently 60% of volume); and 3) the planned opening of its first store in Kunming, China, and e-commerce business offer longer-term growth opportunities. Price Relative S$ Relative Index 0.8 209 0.8 0.7 189 0.7 169 0.6 0.6 149 0.5 0.5 129 0.4 109 0.4 0.3 Aug-11 89 Aug-12 Aug-13 Sheng Siong Group (LHS) Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (S$ m) Revenue EBITDA Pre-tax Profit Net Profit Net Pft (Pre Ex.) EPS (S cts) EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) EPS Gth (%) EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) Diluted EPS (S cts) Net DPS (S cts) BV Per Share (S cts) PE (X) PE Pre Ex. (X) P/Cash Flow (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Net Div Yield (%) P/Book Value (X) Net Debt/Equity (X) ROAE (%) Earnings Rev (%): Consensus EPS (S cts): Other Broker Recs: 2013A 687 52 48 39 39 2.8 2.8 (7) 25 2.8 2.6 10.8 24.9 24.9 20.6 16.8 3.7 6.5 CASH 25.8 Aug-14 Relative STI INDEX (RHS) 2014F 718 61 56 46 46 3.3 3.3 16 16 3.3 2.9 16.5 21.5 21.5 16.3 13.3 4.2 4.2 CASH 24.1 2015F 732 65 60 49 49 3.3 3.3 1 1 3.3 3.0 15.9 21.3 21.3 16.6 13.6 4.2 4.4 CASH 20.8 2016F 770 68 63 52 52 3.4 3.4 5 5 3.4 3.1 16.3 20.3 20.3 15.6 13.0 4.4 4.3 CASH 21.4 3.2 B: 8 5 3.5 S: 0 5 3.9 H: 0 ICB Industry : Consumer Services ICB Sector: Food & Drug Retailers Principal Business: Retailer principally engaged in operating the Sheng Siong Groceries Chain. Source of all data: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P www.dbsvickers.com ed: TH / sa: JC SSG is gaining traction in the mass market segment. SSG has been able to gain traction in the mass market space as NTUC shifts its focus into the premium space. Mass market NTUC supermarkets have grown less aggressively than premium ones. DFI’s store count has also shrunk in tandem with direct competition from NTUC, leaving SSG in a sweet spot to dominate the mass market segment. Raise gross margin assumption. We raise our gross margin assumptions for FY15 and FY16F as we see room for bulk purchasing activities to ramp up. We envisage that supermarkets’ bargaining power will strengthen, with NTUC’s new Joo Koon distribution hub. We raise both our gross margin assumptions for FY15F and FY16F from 24% to 24.4%. Lower oil prices could also lead to lower utility costs and better operating margins. Maintain BUY, with a higher TP of S$0.82 SSG currently trades at 21.3x FY15F PE, below its historical (23x forward PE) and regional peer average (25x forward PE). In line with our earnings revision, we revise our TP to a higher S$0.82, pegged to 25x FY15F PE and aligned to peer average. Maintain BUY. At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) Major Shareholders SS Holdings (%) Lim Family (%) Free Float (%) Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 1,504 1,052 / 789 29.9 33.9 36.2 2,434 Company Focus Sheng Siong Group INVESTMENT THESIS Profile Sheng Siong is the third largest supermarket operator in Singapore, behind NTUC Fairprice and Dairy Farm International. Rationale Improvement in SSSG, margins We expect SSSG to be sustained through marketing initiatives. Margins are also anticipated to expand through more bulk purchase activities and higher sales mix of fresh products. Cash business We like supermarket businesses as they are typically cash generative. Sales are made in cash while purchases for inventory are generally bought on credit. Stable earnings, attractive dividend yield Supermarket businesses are non-cyclical and therefore provide stable earnings and dividends to shareholders. Sheng Siong pays out 90% or more of its earnings as dividends. Valuation Our target price for Sheng Siong is S$0.82 based on 25x forward earnings. We derive Sheng Siong's target price based on PE. Our 25x valuation peg is based on +1SD of its historical mean PE. Risks Revenue growth limited by store openings Store expansion has been tough for Sheng Siong as rental rates have been a consistent challenge. It did not open any new stores in FY13, leaving growth in FY14F solely dependent on same-store sales growth. Excessive discounts and promotions may erode margins Heavier discounts and promotions vis-a-vis competitors would drive sales revenue, but this could be gained at the expense of margins. Rental and labour costs As a retailer, labour and rental costs are key operating costs components. Labour costs have been increasing due to foreign worker dependency ratio and the government's initiative to raise wages. This trend, if it persists, could lead to lower operating margins. Source: DBS Bank Page 2 Company Focus Sheng Siong Group Keen investor interest in SSG SSG has gained market share through DFI’s rationalisation Investors like SSG for its sound fundamentals. We hosted SSG’s CEO, Mr. Lim Hock Chee and Finance Director, Mr. Wong Soon Kit at our 2015 Pulse of Asia Conference in Singapore last week, which drew keen interest from more than 50 clients. Most investors were positive on SSG for its stable earnings, dividend yield, net cash balance sheet, cash generating capabilities, expanding margins, potential for growth in China, and focus on e-commerce. Gained market share in the midst of keen competition Optimistic on the decline of wet markets in Singapore. Management believes that supermarkets will eventually steal market share from wet markets due to changing lifestyles, consumption patterns and limited continuity of wet market store operators. We remain positive on the supermarket business over the long term as Singapore trend towards purchase of grocery retail through modern channels. This will benefit modern grocery retailers with higher demand for fresh products, which will lead to higher margins over time. Traditional grocery retailers giving way to modern trade channels Number of outlets 2011 2012 2013 2014 NTUC 254 269 280 290 DFI 672 686 655 616 SSG 25 33 33 33 Total 951 988 968 939 NTUC 42% 43% 45% 46% DFI 34% 34% 34% 33% SSG 12% 12% 14% 14% Market share by revenue Others Total 12% 11% 7% 7% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank estimates Expanding store network Raised funds through share placement to retain room for gearing up in the future. Even though SSG’s net cash balance sheet has room to gear up, management has opted to first raise funds through shareholder placement as this allows management to retain the option to gear up, should it require further funding in the future. Use of proceeds Mkt share (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 Modern channel 70.0 70.6 70.6 70.8 Use of placement proceeds Traditional channel 30.0 29.4 29.4 29.2 Property purchase 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank estimates Placement fees Utilised amount Proportion S$66.95m 83.7% S$1.38m 1.7% Excess S$11.67m 14.6% Total S$80.00m 100.0% SSG is gaining traction in the mass market segment. While NTUC shifts its focus into the premium space by expanding its NTUC Finest brand, SSG has been able to gain traction in the mass market space. The number of NTUC supermarkets targeting the mass market has grown less aggressively than NTUC Finest, both in terms of floor area and store count. DFI’s store count has shrunk in tandem with direct competition from NTUC Finest. This leaves SSG in a sweet spot to dominate the mass market segment, even as NTUC Finest expands and competes directly with DFI’s cold storage. Source: Company, DBS Bank NTUC has been focusing on expanding Finest 35 stores by January 2015. SSG recently opened its 34th store in Penjuru and will be opening its Tampines store this month. SSG prefers not to pay high rental rates, but is more than willing to purchase shop space in locations it wants to have a presence in. It targets to open 2-3 stores per year. Number of outlets 2011 2012 2013 2014 Finest 9 10 17 16 Xtra 4 5 6 7 100 Supermarkets 94 96 98 Xpress 24 24 24 20 Cheers 123 134 135 147 Total NTUC outlets 254 269 280 290 Source: Euromonitor, annual report, DBS Bank estimates Page 3 Funds have been partially deployed, expanding footprint to Tampines. SSG successfully completed its property purchase at Block 506 Tampines Central 1 for S$65m on 31 December 2014. It will open a new supermarket with a gross floor area of approximately 9,800 sqft on the property’s second storey. Operations will commence by the end of January 2015. The bulk of the S$80m placement has been utilised for its Tampines property purchase. Company Focus Sheng Siong Group Room for margin to improve Raise FY15F and FY16F earnings by 5% Will be aiming to bulk handle 80% of volumes eventually, in line with NTUC. With the opening of Joo Koon distribution hub, NTUC targets to bulk handle 80% of total volumes. SSG currently bulk handles 60% of volumes and will be aiming to bulk handle volumes similar to NTUC’s target. With NTUC taking on bulk purchase, supermarkets' purchasing power will strengthen, which is positive for margins. Raise gross margin assumptions. We raise our gross margin assumption for FY15 as we believe that higher margins will eventually come through. SSG’s bulk purchasing activities have room to ramp up and with NTUC having started Joo Koon distribution hub, we envisage heavier discounts and lower cost of goods due to the strengthening bargaining power of supermarkets. We raise our gross margin assumptions for FY15F and FY16F from 24% to 24.4%. We are conservatively not imputing any gross margin change going into FY16F. Lower oil prices could also lead to lower utility costs and better operating margins. 27.0 +2sd 25.0 +1sd 23.0 19.0 -1sd 17.0 -2sd Kunming LuChen Group Co Ltd US$3m 30% US$1m 10% US$10m 100% * Also SSG’s executive director Source: Company, DBS Bank E-commerce, a new store format for the future Positive on e-commerce store format for the long term. SSG’s e-commerce business now serves four areas and has 80 customers a day. E-commerce continues to be in the pilot phase but management believes that it will be more viable for places with high population density such as Singapore, than other more sparsely populated markets. We maintain our positive view on SSG’s e-commence initiative over the long term. Source: DBS Bank Aug-14 60% Avg 21.0 Feb-14 Stake US$6m Page 4 29.0 Aug-13 Registered capital Sheng Siong (x) Feb-13 Shareholders Total 31.0 15.0 Joint venture Mr. Tan Ling San* Trades at below historical average valuations Aug-12 First store planned for opening in 2H15. Developments in China have been progressing after SSG executed a conditional JV agreement with its JV partners. The LuChen Group manufactures and distributions food products such as sauces and condiments and we believe this will be synergistic to the JV. SSG’s initial investment will be US$6m, with the first store in Kunming targeted to open in 2H15. It will avoid competing directly with Walmart and Carrefour, but will be leveraging on location, price, service, quality of products and SKUs to differentiate itself from the competition. SSG’s CEO Mr Lim will be initially deploying himself to Kunming to oversee operational developments there. Maintain BUY, with a higher TP of S$0.82. SSG currently trades at 21.3x FY15F and FY16F PE, below its historical (23x forward PE) and regional peer average (25x forward PE). In line with our earnings revision, we revise our TP to a higher S$0.82, pegged to 25x PE and aligned to peer average. Feb-12 China presents longer-term growth opportunities Valuation Aug-11 We believe fresh products’ contribution will improve over time. Mix of fresh products versus dry groceries currently stands at 40%/60%, with blended gross profit margin at 24%. We believe contribution from higher-margin fresh products will improve over time as wet markets lose appeal over the longer term. Company Focus Sheng Siong Group Key Assumptions FY Dec Rev per sqft Operation Area (sqft) Number of stores 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F 1,593.3 1,718.5 1,718.5 1,718.5 1,718.5 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0 426,000.0 452,000.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 37.0 41.0 On track to achieve our four new store assumption with new Penjuru, Tampines stores confirmed. Segmental Breakdown FY Dec Revenues (S$ m) Singapore Total Operating profit (S$ m) Singapore Total Operating profit Margins (%) Singapore Total Income Statement (S$ m) FY Dec Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Other Opng (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Preference Dividend Net Profit Net Profit before Except. EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins & Ratio Gross Margins (%) Opg Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) ROAE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Div Payout Ratio (%) Net Interest Cover (x) Source: Company, DBS Bank Page 5 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F 637 637 687 687 718 718 732 732 770 770 35 35 42 42 50 50 54 54 57 57 5.5 5.5 6.1 6.1 7.0 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F 637 (496) 141 (106) 35 4 0 1 10 50 (9) 0 0 42 31 43 687 (529) 158 (117) 42 5 0 1 0 48 (9) 0 0 39 39 52 718 (544) 173 (123) 50 5 0 1 0 56 (10) 0 0 46 46 61 732 (553) 179 (124) 54 5 0 1 0 60 (11) 0 0 49 49 65 770 (582) 188 (131) 57 5 0 1 0 63 (11) 0 0 52 52 68 10.2 16.1 12.0 52.9 7.9 19.8 19.8 (6.6) 4.4 18.2 21.0 18.8 1.9 6.1 7.4 6.8 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.0 22.1 5.5 6.5 27.8 17.3 19.0 91.3 NM 23.0 6.1 5.7 25.8 15.9 22.3 92.5 NM 24.1 7.0 6.4 24.1 15.8 21.2 90.0 NM 24.4 7.4 6.7 20.8 14.5 18.5 90.0 NM 24.4 7.4 6.7 21.4 14.8 19.2 90.0 NM Margins Trend 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 2012A 2013A Operating Margin % 2014F 2015F 2016F Net Income Margin % Below consensus EPS Conservative as SSG had already achieved 24.4% for combined 2Q14 and 3Q14. Company Focus Sheng Siong Group (4.2) (9.0) (13.4) (11.9) 11.3 29.3 36.4 34.4 (9.6) (9.5) (8.3) (11.6) 8.6 8.5 7.8 10.2 23.2 6.5 5.9 23.2 5.8 5.5 23.8 7.1 6.6 24.7 7.2 6.5 24.2 7.2 6.5 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Net Fixed Assets Invts in Associates & JVs Other LT Assets Cash & ST Invts Inventory Debtors Other Current Assets Total Assets 75 0 0 120 40 7 0 242 91 0 0 100 46 12 0 248 93 0 0 184 47 13 0 337 111 0 0 172 48 13 0 344 129 0 0 162 50 13 0 355 ST Debt Creditor Other Current Liab LT Debt Other LT Liabilities Shareholder’s Equity Minority Interests Total Cap. & Liab. 0 80 9 0 2 152 0 242 0 88 8 0 2 150 0 248 0 90 10 0 2 234 0 337 0 91 11 0 2 239 0 344 0 96 11 0 2 245 0 355 (42) 120 3.9 61.0 28.6 2.6 1.9 1.4 CASH CASH N/A 9.5 (38) 100 5.0 59.0 30.1 2.8 1.6 1.2 CASH CASH N/A 9.1 (41) 184 6.3 60.9 31.6 2.5 2.4 2.0 CASH CASH N/A 8.6 (42) 172 6.3 61.0 31.8 2.1 2.3 1.8 CASH CASH N/A 8.8 (44) 162 6.2 60.0 31.2 2.2 2.1 1.6 CASH CASH N/A 8.5 Balance Sheet (S$ m) FY Dec Non-Cash Wkg. Capital Net Cash/(Debt) Debtors Turn (avg days) Creditors Turn (avg days) Inventory Turn (avg days) Asset Turnover (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) Net Debt/Equity (X) Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) Capex to Debt (%) Z-Score (X) Source: Company, DBS Bank Page 6 10% 140 120 5% 100 0% 80 60 -5% 40 -10% 20 -15% 0 Revenue 3Q2014 11.3 19.0 22.8 24.4 Growth (QoQ) Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins Gross Margins (%) Opg Profit Margins (%) Net Profit Margins (%) 15% 160 2Q2014 186 (141) 45 (32) 13 1 0 0 0 15 (3) 0 12 12 17 1Q2014 172 (129) 42 (30) 12 1 0 0 0 14 (3) 0 11 11 16 4Q2013 190 (145) 45 (32) 14 2 0 0 0 15 (3) 0 13 13 18 3Q2013 170 (131) 40 (30) 10 1 0 1 0 12 (2) 0 9 9 14 180 2Q2013 178 (137) 41 (30) 11 1 0 0 0 13 (2) 0 11 11 15 20% 200 1Q2013 3Q2014 4Q2012 2Q2014 3Q2012 Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Net Profit Net profit bef Except. EBITDA Revenue Trend 1Q2014 2Q2012 Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (S$ m) FY Dec 3Q2013 4Q2013 Revenue Growth % (QoQ) Asset Breakdown (2014) Debtors 3.7% Net Fixed Assets 27.6% Assocs'/JVs 0.0% Inventory 13.9% Bank, Cash and Liquid Assets 54.7% Unaffected by increases in SIBOR. Company Focus Sheng Siong Group Cash Flow Statement (S$ m) FY Dec Capital Expenditure 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F 50 10 (8) 0 (6) (11) 36 (12) 0 0 0 15 3 (38) 0 0 0 (38) 0 0 3.0 1.7 48 12 (9) 0 (3) (1) 47 (26) 0 0 0 1 (25) (41) 0 0 0 (41) 0 (19) 3.6 1.5 56 13 (8) 0 0 0 61 (13) 0 0 0 0 (13) (42) 0 80 0 38 0 87 4.3 3.4 60 13 (10) 0 1 0 64 (29) 0 0 0 0 (29) (44) 0 0 0 (44) 0 (10) 4.2 2.3 63 13 (11) 0 2 0 67 (29) 0 0 0 0 (29) (47) 0 0 0 (47) 0 (8) 4.4 2.5 35 Pre-Tax Profit Dep. & Amort. Tax Paid Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) Chg in Wkg.Cap. Other Operating CF Net Operating CF Capital Exp.(net) Other Invts.(net) Invts in Assoc. & JV Div from Assoc & JV Other Investing CF Net Investing CF Div Paid Chg in Gross Debt Capital Issues Other Financing CF Net Financing CF Currency Adjustments Chg in Cash Opg CFPS (S cts) Free CFPS (S cts) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2012A 2013A Target Price & Ratings History S$ S.No . 1: 2: 0.71 3 0.66 4 6 2 5 0.61 0.56 Jan-14 1 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Not e : Share price and Target price are adjusted for corporate actions. Source: DBS Bank Page 7 2015F Assume 90% dividend payout. Source: Company, DBS Bank 0.76 2014F Capital Expenditure (-) Cl o s i n g Ta rg e t Pri c e Pri c e 25 Apr 14 0.62 0.76 10 Jun 14 0.65 0.76 Da te R a ti n g Buy Buy 3: 31 Jul 14 0.71 0.85 Buy 4: 05 Sep 14 0.68 0.78 Buy 5: 29 Oct 14 0.65 0.78 Buy 6: 18 Dec 14 0.67 0.78 Buy 2016F Company Focus Sheng Siong Group DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame) Share price appreciation + dividends GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the “DBS Vickers Group”) only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. 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As of the date of the report is published, the analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities). COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES 1. DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates do not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of 30 Nov 2014. 2. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of common equity securities of the company mentioned as of 30 Nov 2014. 3. Compensation for investment banking services: DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may have received compensation, within the past 12 months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the company mentioned. Page 8 Company Focus Sheng Siong Group DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively. 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