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Chinese TDI Weekly Report
Version: 200921（20090518-20090522）
1. Market brief
z
Taiwan Nanya 30,000 tons TDI facility is expected to resume at the end of May.
z
Jinhua newly-built 50,000 tons TDI facility will put into trial operation on May 25.
z
Gansu Yinguang 100,000 tons TDI expanded facility will be completed and put into operation this
year.
z
Northern TDI ex-factory prices dropped by RMB 1000-1500/t, with mainstream quotations at RMB
22000/t.
z
The total TDI export volumes from Korea are 22,200 tons, dropping by 2.6% year-on-year; but
increasing by 22.1% on a month-on-month basis.
2 Weekly market analysis
2.1 Summary
Domestic TDI prices drop by RMB 1500-2000/t in a whole. In early week, the overall quotations are
basically leveling with that of last week. In the middle of the week, however, the price begins to slow
down but adjusts itself at the weekend. At weekend, stocks in the south are offered at RMB
21000-21500/t without invoice but RMB 21500-22000/t with invoice. Prices in East China are decreasing
gradually this week after the stand-on in last week.
Shanghai stocks are negotiated at RMB 22000-22500/t; imported stocks are offered at RMB
21500-22000/t; northern domestic stocks are offered at RMB 21500-22000/t with delivery. In North
China, it continues with its decline trends as of last week, falling by RMB 1500/t with quotations at RMB
22000-22500/t generally.
2.2 Domestic markets
Table: TDI price-comparison between this week and last week in China (RMB/t)
Area
East China
South China
North China
USD price
This week
21500-22500
21000-22500
21500-22500
USD2500-2650/t
Last week
23000-24500
22500-24000
23000-24500
USD2500-2750/t
East China
TDI prices perform a declining adjustment state in the east. Shanghai stocks are transacted at RMB
22000-22500/t; imported stocks are sold at RMB 21000-21500/t and northern domestic stocks are
delivered at RMB 21500-22000/t. Traders contend that downstream buyers keep wait-and-see attitudes
influenced by the drop-off of ex-factory prices in the north. What’s worse, suppliers’ restricting
measures cannot stimulate the deteriorating markets.
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It is heard that along with the arrival of low-cost stocks in Zhangjiagang, the price may go down
deeply.
North China
Forced by inventory pressure and price decline in other areas, northern factories have to cut down
their quotations with mainstream prices at RMB 22000-22500/t ex-factory. Shanghai stocks are offered
at RMB 22500-23000/t with mainstream transactions at RMB 22000/t and imported stocks are quoted at
RMB 21500/t but RMB 200-300/t lower for actual transactions.
Although northern traders are willing to sell off but the downstream demands are poor in the
traditional slack season of May and June. On one hand, downstream sponge clients have some
inventories lasting for a while; on the other hand, they are expecting much lower prices. Regarding price
decline, traders attribute it to pessimistic demands in the future instead of inventory pressure.
South China
In the first half of this week, market prices in the south are out of order. It is at RMB 20000-21500/t
without invoice even lower than RMB 20000/t.
In the middle of the week, according to the sellers, the current low prices are not so impressive to
attract buyers; therefore, they have to restrict the supply to reduce the pessimistic attitudes spreading in
the markets.
At the weekends, prices are lifted slightly with mainstream quotations at RMB 21000-21500/t
without invoice.
For the moment, the spot price in Hong Kong is at USD 2500-2550/t, which bottoms out the cost line,
thereby, USD prices are not likely to further slow down in a short time.
Chinese TDI price trend from 2008 to May 2009 (East China)
55000
50000
RMB/t
45000
40000
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35000
30000
25000
20000
week
15000
1-1
2-2
3-4
5-2
6-4
8-1
9-3
11-1
12-3
Shanghai Suntower Business Consulting
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3-2
4-4
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2.3 USD markets
Affected by the RMB price decline, the surrounding USD prices follow suits.
At weekends, the spot price in Hong Kong is at USD 2500-2550/t, down USD 200/t compared with
the early week. Currently, Korean and Japanese stocks in trade are limited. The contract price in May is
around at USD 2500/t with tight supply. The prices for late May and June delivery are at USD 2600/t or
so, even if, buyers from Hong Kong and mainland are reluctant to make orders. However, Korean
suppliers will not decrease their quotations shortly. There is no quotation from Tainwan Nanya.
As per European deep-sea stocks, some sellers mainly offer at USD 2600-2700/t for May and June
delivery but some offer higher than USD2700/t.
Production Data:
● Northern TDI factories decrease ex-factory prices by RMB 1000-1500/t with quotation mainly at
RMB 22000/t.
● Gansu Yinguang keeps regular operation rates with quotations at RMB 22000/t with delivery.
● Cangzhou Dahua 30,000 tons TDI facility is under regular operation with quotations at RMB
22000/t. It is expected that its new facility will not produce massively in a short time.
● BlueStar 30,000 tons TDI facility keeps regular running rates with quotations at RMB
22000-22500/t ex-factory prices but lower for real transactions.
3. Quotes from suppliers
3.1 Quotes from domestic suppliers
Cangzhou Dahua Co.,Ltd
Prices for this week
(RMB/t)
21500-22000
Prices for four our
weeks ago (RMB/t)
25000-25500
Gansu Yinguang Co.,Ltd
22000-22000
25200-25500
BlueStar Chemical Co.,Ltd
22000-22000
25000-25500
Bayer (Shanghai)
21000-22000
24000-24500
BASF (Shanghai)
26000-26000
20500-20500
Producers
Remarks
price for factories
Monthly contract
price
3.2 Quotes from global suppliers
2600-2700
2600-2700
2600-2700
Prices for four
our weeks ago
（$/T）
2500-2600
2500-2600
2500-2600
CIF China
CIF China
CIF China
Tainwan
0-0
0-0
CIF China
Poland
Korea
2550-2600
2600-2700
2600-2700
2500-2600
CIF China
CIF China
Producers
origin
Price for this
week（$/T）
BASF
MUITSUI
KFC
Korea
Japan
Korea
NAN YA
ZACHEM
OCI
price term
Remark
suspend
quotations
4. Weekly upstream materials market analysis
4.1 Weekly oil price trends
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Date
Nymex WTI
IPE Brent
2009-5-18
2009-5-22
56.34
61.05
55.98
59.70
OPEC package
55.99
57.52
Note: prices for future contract
WTI oil price trend from 2007 to 2009
130
110
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90
70
50
30
1- 2- 3- 4- 5- 6- 7- 8- 9- 10- 11- 12- 1- 2- 3- 4- 5- 6- 7- 8- 9- 10- 11- 12- 1- 2- 3- 419 16 16 18 21 18 19 16 13 18 15 13 15 21 20 21 20 18 16 13 11 15 17 15 13 23 24 23
4.2 Weekly toluene price trends
Date
East China
South China
USD CIF
2009-5-18
5300-5350
5300-5400
630-650
2009-5-22
5350-5400
5300-5300
650-670
5. TDI Exports/ Imports analysis
Table1: China TDI ex/import data from January to March
29291010
Month
200901
200902
200903
Total
200801-03
Rate of growth
Import
4620
7664
11082
23366
25216
-7.34%
Export
273
24
74
371
2315
-83.97%
Table 2: Korean TDI export flow from January to April
Area
Hong Kong
China
Japan
Tainwan
Total in North-East Asia
Rate of growth
Total in export
Rate of growth
200901
3290
2061
40
360
5751
-22.5%
14400
-45.2%
200902
4320
2767
20
812
7919
49.2%
14853
-26.8%
200903
5160
2742
30
360
8292
23.6%
18182
-31.7%
200904
6160
1980
501
700
9341
55.9%
22203
-2.6%
Table 3: Japan TDI export flow from January to March
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Exporting
countries
January
February
March
China
146
59
448
Hong Kong
2046
3820
5400
Taiwan
60
940
115
Korea
0
0
0
North-East
Asia in 2009
2252
4819
5963
Total in
2009
3485
10188
11694
North-East
Asia in 2008
6229
7684
8233
Total in
2008
10298
11895
12491
6. Market forecast
For the markets in the future, the news of two northern TDI facilities’ trial running and slack season
of downstream sponge sectors worsen the deteriorating TDI markets to some great extent.
However, the turnarounds of Korean plants and Shanghai sites diminish the supply for the markets,
which will ease the weakening markets.
In addition, it is heard that Taiwan Nanya TDI facility will restart at the end of May, which may
stabilize the feeble markets, particularly under current plummeting TDI markets.
At weekend, the domestic prices maintain at RMB 21500-22500/t, with better transactions than
before. It is indicated that TDI prices may pick up in a short time.
Notes:
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commercial decisions claimed to have been based on the content of the report.
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