W O R KI N G PA P E R N O . 7
Africa’s Urbanization:
Challenges and
Opportunities
Maria E. Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipziger
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WORKINGȱPAPERȱNO.ȱ7
Africa’sȱUrbanization:ȱ
Challengesȱandȱ
Opportunitiesȱ
MariaȱE.ȱFreire,ȱSomikȱLall,ȱȱ
andȱDannyȱLeipzigerȱ
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©ȱ2014ȱTheȱGrowthȱDialogueȱ
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Coverȱdesign:ȱMichaelȱAlwanȱ
Contentsȱ
AboutȱtheȱAuthorsȱ.............................................................................................ȱv
Abstractȱ............................................................................................................ȱvii
Acknowledgmentsȱ............................................................................................ȱix
TheȱMainȱIdeaȱ....................................................................................................ȱ1
Africa’sȱUrbanȱExpansionȱ.................................................................................ȱ4
AlternativeȱAnalyticalȱFrameworks:ȱIsȱUrbanizationȱDifferentȱinȱ
Africa?ȱ..........................................................................................................ȱ9
DensityȱwithoutȱCongestion:ȱAreȱThereȱSolutionsȱThatȱAreȱFeasibleȱ
andȱAffordable?ȱ........................................................................................ȱ11
ObservationsȱforȱtheȱFuture:ȱAsȱAfricaȱUrbanizesȱ......................................ȱ21
Referencesȱ.........................................................................................................ȱ27
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Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
iii
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AboutȱtheȱAuthorsȱ
Dr.ȱMariaȱEmiliaȱFreireȱisȱaȱSeniorȱAdvisorȱatȱtheȱGrowthȱDialogueȱandȱ
formerȱSeniorȱAdvisorȱatȱtheȱWorldȱBank.ȱȱ
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Dr.ȱ Somikȱ Lallȱ isȱ aȱ Leadȱ Economistȱ forȱ Urbanȱ Developmentȱ inȱ theȱ
WorldȱBank’sȱUrbanȱandȱDisasterȱRiskȱManagementȱDepartment.ȱȱ
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Dr.ȱDannyȱLeipzigerȱisȱtheȱManagingȱDirectorȱofȱtheȱGrowthȱDialogueȱ
andȱ Professorȱ ofȱ Internationalȱ Businessȱ atȱ theȱ Georgeȱ Washingtonȱ
UniversityȱSchoolȱofȱBusinessȱinȱWashington,ȱDC.ȱȱ
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Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
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Abstractȱ
Africaȱisȱurbanizingȱfast.ȱItsȱrateȱofȱurbanizationȱsoaredȱfromȱ15ȱpercentȱ
inȱ1960ȱtoȱ40ȱpercentȱinȱ2010,ȱandȱisȱprojectedȱtoȱreachȱ60ȱpercentȱinȱ2050ȱ
(UNȱHabitatȱ2010).ȱUrbanȱpopulationsȱinȱAfricaȱareȱexpectedȱtoȱtripleȱinȱ
theȱ nextȱ 50ȱ years,ȱ changingȱ theȱ profileȱ ofȱ theȱ region,ȱ andȱ challengingȱ
policyȱ makersȱ toȱ harnessȱ urbanizationȱ forȱ sustainableȱ andȱ inclusiveȱ
growth.ȱ Althoughȱ manyȱ haveȱ writtenȱ aboutȱ theȱ phenomena,ȱ whatȱ isȱ
clearȱtoȱusȱisȱthatȱisȱimpossibleȱtoȱdealȱwithȱAfrica’sȱgrowthȱandȱpovertyȱ
challengesȱ withoutȱ managingȱ urbanization.ȱ Urbanizationȱ isȱ notȱ aȱ subȬ
plot,ȱbutȱratherȱtheȱmainȱpolicyȱnarrativeȱforȱAfrica.ȱȱ
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Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
vii
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Acknowledgmentsȱ
TheȱauthorsȱwouldȱlikeȱtoȱacknowledgeȱtheȱcommentsȱofȱDr.ȱMaryvonneȱ
PlessisȬFraissardȱandȱProfessorȱDanielȱHoornwegȱonȱanȱearlierȱversionȱofȱ
thisȱ paper.ȱ Researchȱ supportȱ fromȱ theȱ Instituteȱ forȱ Internationalȱ
EconomicȱPolicyȱ(IIEP)ȱisȱgratefullyȱacknowledged.ȱ
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Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
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Africa’sȱUrbanization:ȱȱ
ChallengesȱandȱOpportunities1ȱ
MariaȱE.ȱFreire,ȱSomikȱLall,ȱandȱDannyȱLeipzigerȱ
TheȱMainȱIdeaȱ
Africaȱisȱurbanizingȱfast.ȱItsȱrateȱofȱurbanizationȱsoaredȱfromȱ15ȱpercentȱ
inȱ1960ȱtoȱ40ȱpercentȱinȱ2010,ȱandȱisȱprojectedȱtoȱreachȱ60ȱpercentȱinȱ2050ȱ
(UNȱHabitatȱ2010).ȱUrbanȱpopulationsȱinȱAfricaȱareȱexpectedȱtoȱtripleȱinȱ
theȱ nextȱ 50ȱ years,ȱ changingȱ theȱ profileȱ ofȱ theȱ region,ȱ andȱ challengingȱ
policyȱ makersȱ toȱ harnessȱ urbanizationȱ forȱ sustainableȱ andȱ inclusiveȱ
growth.ȱ Althoughȱ manyȱ haveȱ writtenȱ aboutȱ theȱ phenomena,ȱ whatȱ isȱ
clearȱtoȱusȱisȱthatȱisȱimpossibleȱtoȱdealȱwithȱAfrica’sȱgrowthȱandȱpovertyȱ
challengesȱ withoutȱ managingȱ urbanization.ȱ Urbanizationȱ isȱ notȱ aȱ subȬ
plot,ȱbutȱratherȱtheȱmainȱpolicyȱnarrativeȱforȱAfrica.ȱȱ
Africa’sȱ urbanȱ growthȱ isȱ inȱ lineȱ withȱ theȱ trendsȱ observedȱ inȱ mostȱ
emergingȱ andȱ developedȱ countries.ȱ Inȱ theȱ lastȱ 10ȱ years,ȱ theȱ region’sȱ
economiesȱ grewȱ rapidly—aboveȱ 5ȱ percentȱ aȱ yearȱ (IMFȱ 2012)—andȱ theȱ
outlookȱ forȱ theȱ nearȱ termȱ isȱ largelyȱ positive.ȱ Findingsȱ fromȱ economicȱ
geographyȱ tellȱ usȱ thatȱ densityȱ isȱ neededȱ forȱ economicȱ prosperityȱ andȱ
thatȱ urbanȱ growthȱ isȱ aȱ necessaryȱ conditionȱ forȱ acceleratedȱ growthȱ andȱ
sharedȱ prosperityȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2008;ȱ Hendersonȱ 2005,ȱ 2010;ȱ Venablesȱ
2010).ȱ LongȬrunȱ growthȱ needsȱ anȱ efficientȱ systemȱ ofȱ urbanȱ centersȱ thatȱ
produceȱ industrialȱ goodsȱ andȱ highȬvalueȱ services,ȱ alongȱ withȱ
transportationȱ networksȱ toȱ linkȱ nationalȱ economiesȱ withȱ regionalȱ andȱ
globalȱmarketsȱ(Spenceȱetȱal.ȱ2009;ȱWorldȱBankȱ2009).ȱȱ
Alongȱ theȱ broadȱ spectrumȱ ofȱ developmentȱ patterns,ȱ Africaȱ
urbanizationȱpresentsȱsomeȱpeculiarities.ȱWhileȱtheȱheterogeneityȱofȱtheȱ
regionȱ precludesȱ easyȱ generalizations,ȱ oneȱ canȱ takeȱ noteȱ ofȱ someȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
1ȱThisȱworkingȱpaperȱhasȱbeenȱacceptedȱforȱpublicationȱinȱJ.ȱY.ȱLinȱandȱC.ȱMonga,ȱeds,ȱTheȱ
Oxfordȱ Handbookȱ ofȱ Africaȱ andȱ Economics,ȱ Volumeȱ 1:ȱ Contextȱ andȱ Concepts,ȱ Newȱ
York,ȱOxfordȱUniversityȱPressȱ(forthcoming,ȱ2015).ȱAllȱfutureȱrightsȱreserved.ȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
1
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singularȱ characteristics.ȱ Althoughȱ Africaȱ andȱ Asiaȱ haveȱ similarȱ urbanȱ
ratesȱ(aroundȱ40ȱpercent),ȱperȱcapitaȱGDPȱinȱAfricaȱwasȱoneȱthirdȱthatȱofȱ
Asianȱ countriesȱ inȱ 2012.ȱ Inȱ addition,ȱ Africa’sȱ literacyȱ ratesȱ andȱ
institutionalȱ developmentȱ indicesȱ areȱ muchȱ lowerȱ thanȱ Asianȱ
counterparts,ȱandȱAfrica’sȱinfrastructureȱlagsȱbehind.ȱȱ
Recentȱpopulationȱcensusesȱareȱprovidingȱmoreȱaccurateȱdataȱthanȱ
hasȱbeenȱavailableȱinȱtheȱpast.ȱAmongȱotherȱissues,ȱthisȱnewȱinformationȱ
willȱ shedȱ lightȱ onȱ suchȱ questionsȱ asȱ (a)ȱ theȱ sizeȱ andȱ sourceȱ ofȱ urbanȱ
growthȱ acrossȱ Africanȱ countriesȱ (Pottsȱ 2012;ȱ Gollinȱ etȱ al.ȱ 2013);ȱ (b)ȱ theȱ
roleȱ ofȱ ruralȱ migrationȱ versusȱ naturalȱ growthȱ inȱ urbanȱ expansionȱ (Foxȱ
2012);ȱ andȱ (c)ȱ theȱ usefulnessȱ ofȱ growthȱ modelsȱ inȱ explainingȱ theȱ longȬ
termȱ patternȱ ofȱ urbanization.ȱ Theȱ typicalȱ modelsȱ ofȱ structuralȱ
transformationȱexplainȱurbanȱexpansionȱthroughȱtheȱmovementȱofȱlaborȱ
fromȱruralȱtoȱurbanȱareasȱthatȱfollowȱtheȱtransformationȱfromȱagricultureȱ
toȱ industryȱ andȱ services.ȱ Urbanizationȱ wouldȱ beȱ aȱ resultȱ ofȱ eitherȱ aȱ
“push”ȱfromȱagriculturalȱproductivityȱgrowthȱorȱaȱ“pull”ȱfromȱindustrialȱ
productivityȱ growthȱ leadingȱ toȱ “productionȱ cities,”ȱ withȱ aȱ mixȱ ofȱ
workersȱinȱtradableȱandȱnonȬtradableȱsectors.ȱȱ
However,ȱthisȱmodelȱofȱdevelopmentȱdoesȱnotȱseemȱtoȱexplainȱtheȱ
urbanizationȱ patternȱ ofȱ moreȱ thanȱ aȱ dozenȱ Africanȱ countries—thoseȱ
whoseȱ economicȱ growthȱ hasȱ beenȱ associatedȱ withȱ naturalȱ resourceȱ
exploitationȱ butȱ notȱ withȱ increasedȱ manufacturingȱ sharesȱ ofȱ GDPȱ
(Collierȱ2009;ȱGollinȱetȱal.ȱ2013).ȱInȱtheseȱcountries,ȱurbanizationȱisȱlikelyȱ
toȱ haveȱ beenȱ drivenȱ byȱ theȱ incomeȱ effectȱ ofȱ naturalȱ resourceȱ
endowments.ȱ Assumingȱ thatȱ tradableȱ goodsȱ areȱ moreȱ likelyȱ associatedȱ
withȱ increasesȱ inȱ productivityȱ thanȱ nonȬtradableȱ goods,ȱ theȱ lackȱ ofȱ
manufacturingȱ developmentȱ couldȱ hinderȱ longȬrunȱ economicȱ potentialȱ
forȱAfricanȱcities.ȱThisȱargumentȱmeritsȱfurtherȱempiricalȱresearch.ȱȱ
Understandingȱ Africanȱ urbanizationȱ isȱ highlyȱ relevantȱ inȱ otherȱ
domainsȱ asȱ well.ȱ Extremeȱ povertyȱ continuesȱ toȱ beȱ moreȱ prominentȱ inȱ
ruralȱ thanȱ inȱ urbanȱ areasȱ (atȱ leastȱ threeȱ timesȱ higher).ȱ Therefore,ȱ
urbanizationȱwouldȱseemȱtoȱbeȱaȱsuperiorȱwayȱtoȱprovideȱbetterȱservicesȱ
andȱ livelihoodsȱ toȱ millions,ȱ asȱ wellȱ illustratedȱ inȱ theȱ caseȱ ofȱ Chinaȱ
(Taylorȱ 2008).ȱ Oneȱ mayȱ expectȱ thatȱ overȱ time,ȱ theȱ gapȱ betweenȱ urbanȱ
andȱ ruralȱ earningsȱ willȱ declineȱ andȱ eventuallyȱ disappear,ȱ asȱ surplusȱ
laborȱ shrinksȱ andȱ theȱ ruralȱ sectorȱ modernizes.ȱ Butȱ itȱ beȱ quiteȱ aȱ whileȱ
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Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
untilȱthisȱoccurs.2ȱAsȱpartȱofȱtheȱprocess,ȱoneȱmightȱstressȱtheȱimportanceȱ
ofȱ governmentsȱ providingȱ basicȱ servicesȱ toȱ smallerȱ citiesȱ andȱ
intermediateȱ townsȱ thatȱ canȱ facilitateȱ theȱ transitionȱ betweenȱ ruralȱ andȱ
nonȬruralȱ activitiesȱ (Ferreȱ etȱ al.ȱ 2010),ȱ theȱ mobilityȱ ofȱ labor,ȱ andȱ theȱ
generationȱofȱeconomicȱactivity.ȱȱ
Asȱinȱmostȱdevelopingȱcountries,ȱurbanizingȱAfricaȱwillȱfaceȱseriousȱ
challenges,ȱ especiallyȱ asȱ policyȱ structuresȱ adjustȱ slowlyȱ (Hendersonȱ
2005).ȱ Atȱ theȱ nationalȱ level,ȱ integrationȱ ofȱ capitalȱ marketsȱ oftenȱ occursȱ
moreȱ slowlyȱ thanȱ laborȱ marketȱ integration,ȱ whichȱ isȱ facilitatedȱ byȱ
migration.ȱ Investmentȱ inȱ infrastructureȱ isȱ woefullyȱ inadequate,ȱ
institutionalȱ developmentȱ lags,ȱ andȱ theȱ fiscalȱ baseȱ isȱ weakenedȱ byȱ
centralizedȱ processes.ȱ Urbanȱ managementȱ andȱ planningȱ needsȱ toȱ beȱ
strengthenedȱ toȱ helpȱ citiesȱ planȱ aheadȱ andȱ avoidȱ congestion,ȱ pollution,ȱ
andȱtheȱemergenceȱofȱurbanȱslums;ȱbutȱtheȱtrackȱrecordȱofȱmostȱAfricanȱ
countriesȱinȱthisȱarenaȱisȱpoorȱsoȱfar.ȱForȱthisȱreason,ȱtheȱissueȱofȱurbanȱ
managementȱisȱatȱtheȱcoreȱofȱtheȱcontinent’sȱdevelopmentȱchallenge.ȱ
Thisȱ paperȱ addressesȱ theȱ questionȱ ofȱ whatȱ isȱ requiredȱ toȱ makeȱ
Africanȱ citiesȱ efficient,ȱ sustainable,ȱ andȱ inclusive.ȱ Weȱ willȱ beȱ usingȱ
economicȱ geographyȱ asȱ anȱ organizingȱ frameworkȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2008;ȱ
Henderson,ȱ 2005;ȱ Venablesȱ 2010)ȱ forȱ policyȱ recommendationsȱ thatȱ
supportȱ agglomerationȱ benefitsȱ whileȱ managingȱ congestionȱ costs.ȱ Theȱ
paperȱ isȱ organizedȱ inȱ fiveȱ sections.ȱ Theȱ firstȱ sharesȱ keyȱ elementsȱ onȱ
Africanȱ urbanization.ȱ Theȱ secondȱ sectionȱ reviewsȱ recentȱ literatureȱ onȱ
urbanȱ growthȱ modelsȱ andȱ howȱ theseȱ modelsȱ applyȱ toȱ Africa’sȱ
urbanizationȱprocess.ȱTheȱthirdȱandȱfourthȱsectionsȱdiscussȱwhatȱitȱwillȱ
takeȱtoȱencourageȱefficientȱandȱinclusiveȱAfricanȱcities,ȱwhileȱtakingȱintoȱ
accountȱ theȱ diversityȱ ofȱ countriesȱ andȱ theȱ geographicalȱ andȱ socialȱ
divisionȱ ofȱ theȱ continent.ȱ Sectionȱ fiveȱ closesȱ withȱ keyȱ conclusionsȱ andȱ
observationsȱforȱtheȱfuture.ȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱForȱexample,ȱinȱtheȱRepublicȱofȱKorea,ȱtheȱurbanȬruralȱwageȱgapȱwasȱeliminatedȱbyȱ1994;ȱ
andȱinȱSriȱLankaȱtheȱratioȱwasȱunderȱ1.4ȱbyȱ1995.ȱByȱcomparison,ȱAfricaȱstandsȱfarȱafieldȱinȱ
termsȱofȱwageȱdisparities.ȱ
2
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
3
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Africa’sȱUrbanȱExpansionȱȱ
Urbanization rates
Inȱ mostȱ partsȱ ofȱ theȱ world,ȱ urbanizationȱ hasȱ beenȱ accompaniedȱ byȱ
industrializationȱ andȱ economicȱ development,ȱ asȱ increasesȱ inȱ
productivityȱ inȱ manufacturingȱ andȱ servicesȱ benefitedȱ fromȱ proximityȱ
andȱ concentrationȱ ofȱ activitiesȱ andȱ inputs.ȱ Inȱ Africa,ȱ dataȱ forȱ 2011ȱ
confirmȱtheȱrelationȱbetweenȱperȱcapitaȱincomeȱandȱurbanizationȱlevelsȱ
(seeȱfigureȱ1).ȱHowever,ȱAfrica’sȱurbanizationȱisȱoccurringȱatȱlowerȱlevelsȱ
ofȱ incomeȱ andȱ withȱ farȱ lessȱ investmentȱ inȱ infrastructure.ȱ Theseȱ trendsȱ
suggestȱ seriousȱ problemsȱ inȱ copingȱ withȱ theȱ challengesȱ ofȱ rapidȱ
urbanization,ȱnotablyȱaccommodatingȱaȱlargerȱpopulationȱandȱensuringȱ
aȱfavorableȱbusinessȱenvironment.ȱȱ
Africanȱ urbanizationȱ isȱ characterizedȱ byȱ aȱ numberȱ ofȱ uniqueȱ
characteristics,ȱdescribedȱbelow.ȱ
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Figureȱ1:ȱIncomeȱandȱUrbanizationȱRate,ȱ2011ȱ
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5
6
7
8
9
Ln per capita income, 2011
10
11
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Source:ȱWorldȱBank 2013c.ȱ
Heterogeneityȱȱ
SubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱisȱaȱcollectionȱofȱwidelyȱheterogeneousȱcountriesȱandȱ
citiesȱwithȱconsiderableȱdifferentiationȱinȱtheirȱpatternsȱofȱurbanization.ȱ
Forȱ example,ȱ thereȱ areȱ 13ȱ countriesȱ withȱ urbanizationȱ levelsȱ aboveȱ 50ȱ
percent,ȱ mostlyȱ oilȬproducingȱ countriesȱ andȱ middleȬincomeȱ countries.ȱ
4
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
Sevenȱ countriesȱ haveȱlevelsȱ belowȱ 20ȱ percent;ȱ theseȱ includeȱ theȱ lowestȬ
incomeȱ countriesȱ suchȱ asȱ Burundi,ȱ Ethiopia,ȱ Niger,ȱ andȱ Uganda.ȱ Withȱ
theȱ exceptionȱ ofȱ Nigeria,ȱ allȱ countriesȱ withȱ urbanizationȱ ratesȱ aboveȱ 50ȱ
percentȱhaveȱperȱcapitaȱincomesȱ(inȱ2000ȱU.S.ȱdollars)ȱaboveȱUS$1,300.ȱȱ
Africanȱ urbanizationȱ hasȱ happenedȱ quickly,ȱ butȱ withȱ littleȱ changeȱ
inȱtheȱeconomicȱstructureȱofȱmostȱofȱitsȱcountries.ȱTheȱaverageȱshareȱofȱ
manufacturingȱhasȱactuallyȱdeclinedȱinȱtheȱlastȱ15ȱyearsȱ(figureȱ2),ȱwhileȱ
servicesȱ haveȱ remainedȱ atȱ 51ȱ percentȱ ofȱ GDP,ȱ accordingȱ toȱ theȱ Worldȱ
Bank’sȱWorldȱDevelopmentȱIndicatorsȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2013c).ȱȱ
ȱ
Figureȱ2:ȱOutputȱShares,ȱSubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱandȱEastȱAsiaȱandȱtheȱ
Pacificȱ
60
50
Percent
40
30
EAP
SSA
20
10
0
1995
2012
Manufacturing
1995
2012
Industry
1995
2012
Services
ȱ
Source:ȱWorldȱBankȱ2013c.ȱ
ȱ
Africaȱshowsȱmuchȱlowerȱincomeȱlevelsȱthanȱotherȱregions,ȱsuchȱasȱ
Eastȱ Asiaȱ orȱ Southȱ Asia,ȱ atȱ similarȱ stagesȱ ofȱ urbanization.ȱ Countriesȱ inȱ
Eastȱ Asiaȱ andȱ theȱ Pacificȱ (EAP)ȱ surpassedȱ urbanizationȱ ratesȱ ofȱ 50ȱ
percentȱinȱ2009ȱwhileȱexhibitingȱanȱaverageȱGDPȱperȱcapitaȱofȱUS$5,300ȱ
(inȱ 2005ȱ US$).ȱ Theȱ Middleȱ Eastȱ andȱ Northȱ Africaȱ (MENA)ȱ becameȱ 50ȱ
percentȱurbanȱinȱ1981ȱwithȱanȱaverageȱGDPȱperȱcapitaȱofȱUS$3,700,ȱandȱ
Latinȱ Americaȱ andȱ theȱ Caribbeanȱ (LAC)ȱ crossedȱ theȱ sameȱ thresholdȱ inȱ
1961ȱatȱGDPȱperȱcapitaȱofȱUS$2,300ȱ(seeȱfigureȱ3).ȱSubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱisȱ
currentlyȱ 37ȱ percentȱ urbanȱ withȱ anȱ averageȱ GDPȱ perȱ capitaȱ ofȱ US$992.ȱ
Comparedȱ withȱ otherȱ developingȱ regions,ȱ theȱ continentȱ isȱ urbanizingȱ
whileȱpoorer.ȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
5
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Figureȱ3:ȱUrbanizationȱandȱperȱCapitaȱGDPȱacrossȱRegionsȱ
ȱ
Source:ȱWorldȱBankȱ2013c.ȱ
ȱ
Rapidȱurbanȱgrowthȱatȱearlyȱstagesȱofȱdevelopmentȱhasȱmeantȱthatȱ
peopleȱ haveȱ beenȱ concentratingȱ inȱ urbanȱ areasȱ withoutȱ theȱ
accompanyingȱ investmentȱ inȱ physicalȱ structuresȱ andȱ humanȱ capitalȱ
neededȱ toȱ reapȱ theȱ expectedȱ economicȱ benefitsȱ ofȱ agglomeration;ȱ andȱ
governmentsȱ haveȱ beenȱ lessȱ ableȱ toȱ manageȱ negativeȱ externalities.ȱ Inȱ
fact,ȱ averageȱ populationȱ densitiesȱ ofȱ citiesȱ inȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africaȱ areȱ
estimatedȱ toȱ beȱ approximatelyȱ 20,861peopleȱ perȱ squareȱ mile,ȱ whichȱ isȱ
comparableȱtoȱdensitiesȱinȱEAPȱ(19,223ȱpeopleȱperȱsquareȱmile)ȱandȱLACȱ
(18,190ȱ peopleȱ perȱ squareȱ mile)ȱ cities,ȱ andȱ moreȱ thanȱ fourȱ timesȱ theȱ
OECDȱaverageȱ(4,882ȱpeopleȱperȱsquareȱmile).3ȱTheȱnetȱresult,ȱasȱseenȱinȱ
figureȱ 4,ȱ isȱ thatȱ Africaȱ hasȱ notȱ seenȱ theȱ majorȱ declineȱ inȱ povertyȱ
experiencedȱ inȱ Eastȱ Asia,ȱ forȱ example,ȱ inȱ theȱ courseȱ ofȱ theȱ lastȱ twoȱ
decades.ȱ Theȱ keyȱ variableȱ inȱ explainingȱ thisȱ isȱ theȱ relativeȱ lowȱ levelȱ ofȱ
capitalȱinvestmentȱduringȱtheȱrapidȱurbanizationȱperiod.ȱȱ
ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
3
ȱDataȱfromȱDemographia:ȱhttp://www.demographia.com/.ȱ
6
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
Figureȱ4:ȱComparingȱSubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱandȱEastȱAsiaȱandȱtheȱPacificȱ
60
East Asia and the Pacific
50
Sub-Saharan Africa
Percent
40
30
20
10
0
1995
2012
Manufacturing
as % GDP
1995
2012
Investment
as % GDP
1995
2012
Urban share as
% of population
1990
2010
Poverty, % below
poverty line
ȱ
Source:ȱDemographia:ȱhttp://www.demographia.com/.ȱ
ȱ
Capitalȱ investmentȱ inȱ Africaȱ hasȱ remainedȱ aroundȱ 20ȱ percentȱ ofȱ
GDPȱ forȱ theȱ pastȱ 40ȱ years.ȱ Inȱ contrast,ȱ Eastȱ Asianȱ countriesȱ suchȱ asȱ
China,ȱ Japan,ȱ andȱ theȱ Republicȱ ofȱ Koreaȱ steppedȱ upȱ infrastructureȱ
investmentȱ duringȱ periodsȱ ofȱ rapidȱ urbanization.ȱ Inȱ China,ȱ capitalȱ
investmentȱ (includingȱ infrastructure,ȱ housing,ȱ andȱ officeȱ buildings)ȱ
increasedȱ fromȱ 35ȱ percentȱ ofȱ GDPȱ inȱ 1980ȱ toȱ 48ȱ percentȱ inȱ 2011,ȱ
accompanyingȱ aȱ rapidȱ increaseȱ inȱ urbanȱ populationȱ fromȱ 18ȱ percentȱ inȱ
1978ȱ toȱ 52ȱ percentȱ inȱ 2012.ȱ Forȱ theȱ regionȱ asȱ aȱ whole,ȱ Eastȱ Asiaȱ
investmentȱ remainsȱ aboveȱ 40ȱ percentȱ ofȱ GDPȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2013a).ȱ
Povertyȱ reductionȱ isȱ probablyȱ theȱ mostȱ visibleȱ accomplishment.ȱ Whileȱ
theȱpercentageȱofȱpeopleȱlivingȱunderȱUS$1.25ȱperȱdayȱdeclinedȱfromȱ58ȱ
percentȱtoȱaboutȱ12ȱpercentȱinȱEastȱAsia,ȱtheȱshareȱofȱpeopleȱatȱveryȱlowȱ
incomeȱlevelsȱremainsȱatȱoverȱ45ȱpercentȱinȱSubȬSaharanȱAfrica.ȱȱ
Urbanȱ populationsȱ inȱ Africaȱ areȱ concentratedȱ inȱ smallȱ towns,ȱ
reflectingȱ earlyȱ stagesȱ ofȱ development.ȱ Basedȱ onȱ theȱ mostȱ recentȱ
populationȱ estimates,ȱ thereȱ areȱ moreȱ thanȱ 20ȱ Africanȱ countriesȱ whereȱ
moreȱthanȱ70ȱpercentȱofȱtheȱurbanȱpopulationȱlivesȱinȱcitiesȱofȱlessȱthanȱ
500,000ȱ peopleȱ (Simkinsȱ 2013).ȱ Thisȱ isȱ similarȱ toȱ China’sȱ experienceȱ inȱ
theȱ 1990s,ȱ whenȱ itsȱ citiesȱ wereȱ (relatively)ȱ undersizedȱ dueȱ toȱ migrationȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
7
ȱ
restrictions,ȱ substantiallyȱ impairingȱ theirȱ efficiencyȱ (Auȱ andȱ Hendersonȱ
2006).ȱ Migrationȱ restrictionsȱ limitedȱ laborȱ mobilityȱ andȱ agglomeration,ȱ
andȱatȱthatȱtimeȱChinaȱhadȱaȱmuchȱlargerȱshareȱofȱitsȱurbanȱpopulationȱ
inȱ smallerȱ citiesȱ (betweenȱ 100,000ȱ andȱ 1ȱ million)ȱ thanȱ otherȱ emergingȱ
economies.ȱ Theȱ relaxationȱ ofȱ migrationȱ restrictionsȱ hasȱ sinceȱ redrawnȱ
China’sȱ demographicȱ map,ȱ promptingȱ aȱ hugeȱ redistributionȱ ofȱ peopleȱ
acrossȱ citiesȱ ofȱ differentȱ sizes.ȱ Asȱ largeȱ citiesȱ playȱ aȱ criticalȱ roleȱ inȱ
productivityȱ levelsȱ andȱ businessȱ climateȱ (Pugaȱ andȱ Venablesȱ 1996;ȱ
Hendersonȱ andȱ Venablesȱ 2010),ȱ itȱ isȱ clearȱ thatȱ Africaȱ isȱ missingȱ aȱ largeȱ
opportunity.ȱȱ
TooȱFewȱLargeȱCitiesȱȱ
Mostȱ citiesȱinȱ Africaȱ haveȱpopulationsȱ tooȱ smallȱ toȱ properlyȱexploitȱ theȱ
scaleȱ benefitsȱ ofȱ clusteringȱ localȱ economicȱ activity,ȱ therebyȱ limitingȱ
urbanȱ productivityȱ gainsȱ andȱ economicȱ growth.ȱ Relativeȱ toȱ theȱ restȱ ofȱ
theȱ world,ȱ Africanȱ countriesȱ distinctlyȱ lackȱ citiesȱ inȱ theȱ rangeȱ ofȱ 1–5ȱ
millionȱ inȱ population.ȱ Asȱ Hendersonȱ (2009:ȱ 5)ȱ notes:ȱ “Whileȱ Shanghai,ȱ
Beijingȱ andȱ Guangzhou,ȱ forȱ example,ȱ haveȱ evolvedȱ intoȱ megacities,ȱ
recentȱresearchȱsuggestsȱthatȱmanyȱprefectureȬlevelȱcitiesȱareȱaboutȱhalfȱ
theirȱ efficientȱ size.ȱ Theȱ researchȱ indicatesȱ thatȱ aȱ doublingȱ ofȱ theȱ
populationȱinȱsuchȱcitiesȱwouldȱleadȱtoȱaȱ20Ȭ35ȱpercentȱincreaseȱinȱoutputȱ
perȱ worker.”ȱ Divisionsȱ betweenȱ countriesȱ inȱ Africaȱ haveȱ ofȱ courseȱ
playedȱaȱroleȱinȱthisȱpatternȱofȱurbanization.ȱIfȱAfrica’sȱ50ȱcountriesȱwereȱ
50ȱ statesȱ inȱ oneȱ countryȱ likeȱ theȱ Unitedȱ States,ȱ thenȱ theȱ largestȱ citiesȱ
wouldȱbeȱlargeȱenoughȱtoȱsustainȱgreaterȱdiversificationȱandȱincubationȱ
ofȱnewȱfirmsȱ(Venablesȱ2010).ȱȱ
Thereȱ isȱ alsoȱevidenceȱ toȱ suggestȱ thatȱ cityȱ primacyȱ inȱ SubȬSaharanȱ
Africaȱ isȱ lowerȱ thanȱ optimalȱ forȱ manyȱ countries.ȱ Hendersonȱ (2004)ȱ
arguesȱthatȱoptimalȱprimacyȱisȱinverselyȱrelatedȱtoȱlandȱarea,ȱpopulation,ȱ
andȱ incomeȱperȱ capita.ȱ Deviationsȱ fromȱ optimalȱ primacyȱ entailȱcostsȱ inȱ
termsȱ ofȱ productivityȱ growth.ȱ Basedȱ onȱ estimatesȱ inȱ Hendersonȱ (2003)ȱ
andȱ dataȱ forȱ 2010,ȱ theȱ followingȱ countriesȱ haveȱ lessȱ thanȱ 80ȱ percentȱ
levelsȱ ofȱ optimalȱ primacy:ȱ Benin,ȱ Chad,ȱ Ethiopia,ȱ Ghana,ȱ Lesotho,ȱ
Madagascar,ȱ Malawi,ȱ Morocco,ȱ Mozambique,ȱ Nigeria,ȱ Rwanda,ȱ Sierraȱ
Leone,ȱandȱSouthȱAfrica.ȱPoliticalȱfragmentationȱfurtherȱimpingesȱonȱcityȱ
sizeȱandȱcanȱhurtȱproductivity.ȱCollierȱandȱVenablesȱ(2007)ȱandȱVenablesȱ
(2010)ȱ showȱ thatȱ countryȱ areaȱ andȱ populationȱ areȱ highlyȱ significantȱ
8
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
driversȱofȱcityȱsize.ȱTheyȱfurtherȱshowȱthatȱaȱmergerȱofȱtwoȱsimilarȱsizeȱ
countries—thatȱ is,ȱ aȱ doublingȱ ofȱ populationȱ andȱ area—wouldȱ leadȱ toȱ
developmentsȱresultingȱinȱaȱ75ȱpercentȱincreaseȱinȱtheȱsizeȱofȱtheȱlargestȱ
city.ȱȱ
Poorȱ qualityȱ ofȱ dataȱ continuesȱ toȱ hinderȱ theȱ qualityȱ ofȱ analysisȱ ofȱ
Africanȱurbanizationȱandȱdevelopmentȱ(Hendersonȱetȱal.,ȱ2013,ȱSimkinsȱ
2013).ȱ Newȱ populationȱ censusesȱ haveȱ improvedȱ theȱ informationȱ onȱ
Africa’sȱ urbanization,ȱ butȱ manyȱ countriesȱ stillȱ haveȱ notȱ hadȱ censusesȱ
sinceȱ 2000ȱ andȱ forȱ thoseȱ whoȱ haveȱ hadȱ them,ȱ publicȱ accessȱ isȱ limited.ȱ
Thereȱ areȱ alsoȱ problemsȱ ofȱ definitions.ȱ Inȱ theȱ caseȱ ofȱ Nigeria,ȱ whenȱ
urbanizationȱ isȱ measuredȱ byȱ densityȱ andȱ distanceȱ betweenȱ dwellings,ȱ
theȱresultȱisȱ100ȱmillionȱpeopleȱratherȱthanȱtheȱ140ȱmillionȱmentionedȱinȱ
theȱ censusȱ (AFRICAPOLISȱ 2008).ȱ Basedȱ onȱ censusȱ dataȱ andȱ individualȱ
cityȱ analysis,ȱ Foxȱ (2012)ȱ andȱ Pottsȱ (2010)ȱ argueȱ thatȱ urbanizationȱ mayȱ
haveȱ slowedȱ downȱ inȱ severalȱ countries,ȱ suchȱ asȱ Benin,ȱ Burkinaȱ Faso,ȱ
Mauritania,ȱ Mozambique,ȱ Niger,ȱ Senegal,ȱ andȱ Zimbabwe.ȱ Oneȱ
explanationȱ ofȱ thisȱ findingȱ inȱ contrastȱ toȱ overallȱ urbanizationȱ ratesȱ
reportedȱbyȱtheȱWorldȱBankȱandȱothersȱisȱthatȱprimateȱcitiesȱhaveȱgainedȱ
populationsȱ whileȱ secondaryȱ townsȱ andȱ citiesȱ haveȱ not.ȱ Thus,ȱ nationalȱ
urbanizationȱpercentagesȱmayȱnotȱexceedȱpopulationȱgrowth;ȱyetȱslumsȱ
areȱ growingȱ inȱ theȱ primateȱ cityȱ withȱ higherȱ cityȱ concentrations.ȱ Bothȱ
Pottsȱ (2013)ȱ andȱ Gollinȱ etȱ al.ȱ (2013)ȱ argueȱ thatȱ naturalȱ demographicȱ
growthȱofȱcitiesȱandȱtownsȱ(dueȱtoȱhighȱfertilityȱrates)ȱratherȱthanȱruralȱ
migrationȱ isȱ atȱ theȱ rootȱ ofȱ cityȱ growth.ȱ Pottsȱ (2013)ȱ suggestsȱ thatȱ theȱ
contributionȱofȱinȬmigrationȱtoȱurbanȱgrowthȱhasȱfallenȱfromȱ55ȱpercentȱ
inȱtheȱearlyȱ1960sȱtoȱaroundȱ30ȱpercentȱfromȱtheȱmidȬ1990sȱonwards.ȱȱ
AlternativeȱAnalyticalȱFrameworks:ȱ
IsȱUrbanizationȱDifferentȱinȱAfrica?ȱ
Theȱ typicalȱ analyticalȱ frameworkȱ thatȱ explainsȱ theȱ linkȱ betweenȱ
urbanizationȱandȱeconomicȱdevelopmentȱisȱtheȱstructuralȱtransformationȱ
model.ȱ Itȱ suggestsȱ thatȱ asȱ growthȱ occurs,ȱ productionȱ shiftsȱ outȱ ofȱ
agricultureȱ toȱ manufacturingȱ andȱ servicesȱ andȱ tendsȱ toȱ concentrateȱ inȱ
urbanȱ areas,ȱ benefitingȱ fromȱ largeȱ poolsȱ ofȱ laborȱ andȱ capitalȱ andȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
9
ȱ
proximityȱtoȱotherȱfirms.ȱAsȱagricultureȱisȱlandȱintensive,ȱthereȱisȱlimitedȱ
scopeȱforȱaȱlargeȱnumberȱofȱpeopleȱtoȱconcentrateȱinȱoneȱsettlement.ȱForȱ
manufacturing,ȱ however,ȱ capitalȱ canȱ substituteȱ forȱ landȱ limitations.ȱ Inȱ
addition,ȱ scaleȱ andȱ agglomerationȱ economiesȱ increaseȱ efficiencyȱ ofȱ
productionȱ andȱ alsoȱ theȱ likelihoodȱ ofȱ spatialȱ concentrationȱ ofȱ industryȱ
andȱ services.ȱ Certainlyȱ thisȱ isȱ theȱ basicȱ developmentȱ paradigmȱ
originatingȱ withȱ W.ȱ Arthurȱ Lewisȱ (1955)ȱ andȱ reinforcedȱ byȱ theȱ policyȱ
empiricsȱ ofȱ theȱ Commissionȱ onȱ Growthȱ andȱ Developmentȱ (2008)ȱ inȱ itsȱ
GrowthȱReport.ȱ
Aȱ recentȱ bodyȱ ofȱ literatureȱ suggestsȱ thatȱ theȱ aboveȱ linkȱ betweenȱ
urbanizationȱ andȱ industrializationȱ mayȱ notȱ beȱ universal,ȱ however.ȱ
Urbanizationȱ inȱ Africaȱ (atȱ leastȱ inȱ severalȱ countries)ȱ mayȱ haveȱ beenȱ
triggeredȱ byȱ developmentȱ ofȱ naturalȱ resourceȱ exportsȱ ratherȱ thanȱ byȱ
improvementsȱ inȱ manufacturingȱ productivity.ȱ Usingȱ aȱ sampleȱ ofȱ 116ȱ
countriesȱ forȱ 2010,ȱ Gollinȱ etȱ al.ȱ (2013)ȱ illustrateȱ thatȱ aȱ numberȱ ofȱ
countriesȱ areȱ highlyȱ urbanizedȱ withoutȱ havingȱ industrializedȱ much.ȱ
Theseȱ areȱ mostlyȱ resourceȬexportingȱ countriesȱ thatȱ haveȱ urbanizedȱ
withoutȱincreasingȱoutputȱinȱeitherȱmanufacturingȱorȱindustrialȱservices.ȱ
Thisȱ patternȱ isȱ alsoȱ observedȱ byȱ Collierȱ (2006).ȱ Inȱ theȱ moreȱ prevalentȱ
developmentȱ paradigm,ȱ urbanizationȱ happensȱ asȱ consequenceȱ ofȱ
productivityȱ increasesȱ inȱ manufacturingȱ (enablingȱ higherȱ wagesȱ andȱ
attractingȱlaborȱfromȱtheȱruralȱareas);ȱinȱaddition,ȱproductivityȱincreasesȱ
inȱ agricultureȱ (agricultureȱ revolution)ȱ freeȱ ruralȱ laborȱ toȱ moveȱ toȱ citiesȱ
andȱbeȱemployedȱinȱtradableȱproduction—soȬcalledȱ“productionȱcities.”ȱ
Inȱ theȱ alternativeȱ model,ȱ citiesȱ inȱ countriesȱ derivingȱ substantialȱ incomeȱ
fromȱcommoditiesȱandȱnaturalȱresourceȱexportsȱwillȱgrowȱinȱresponseȱtoȱ
theȱ consumptionȱ ofȱ nonȬtradablesȱ associatedȱ withȱ thatȱ increaseȱ inȱ
disposableȱincome.ȱInȱthisȱcase,ȱresourceȬledȱdevelopmentȱwouldȱleadȱtoȱ
theȱ creationȱ ofȱ “consumptionȱ cities”ȱ byȱ increasingȱ theȱ incomeȱ surplusȱ
andȱshiftingȱworkersȱawayȱfromȱtheȱtradableȱsector.ȱȱ
Theȱ latterȱ modelȱ seemsȱ toȱ applyȱ toȱ manyȱ Africaȱ countriesȱ (atȱ leastȱ
15ȱ ofȱ them)ȱ (Gollinȱ etȱ al.ȱ 2013).ȱ Theȱ authorsȱ showȱ thatȱ thereȱ isȱ littleȱ
evidenceȱofȱaȱgreenȱrevolutionȱinȱSubȬSaharanȱAfrica,ȱasȱfoodȱyieldsȱhaveȱ
remainedȱlowȱ(EvensonȱandȱGollinȱ2003);ȱinȱ2010,ȱcerealȱyieldsȱwereȱ2.8ȱ
timesȱ lowerȱ thanȱ inȱ Asia.ȱ Concomitantly,ȱ anȱ industrialȱ revolutionȱ inȱ
Africaȱisȱnotȱevident.ȱItsȱmanufacturingȱandȱhigherȬvalueȱserviceȱsectorsȱ
areȱ relativelyȱ smallȱ (McMillanȱ andȱ Rodrikȱ 2011)ȱ andȱ itsȱ 2010ȱ
10
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
employmentȱ sharesȱ inȱ industryȱ wereȱ 5ȱ percentȱ ofȱ totalȱ employment—
oneȱ thirdȱ ofȱ Asia’sȱ shareȱ ofȱ laborȱ inȱ manufacturing.ȱ Africanȱ laborȱ
productivityȱwasȱalsoȱroughlyȱhalfȱthatȱofȱeitherȱindustryȱorȱservicesȱinȱ
Asiaȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2013a).ȱAsȱnotedȱbyȱGollinȱetȱal.ȱ(2013):ȱȱ
Despiteȱtheȱlackȱofȱtheȱstandardȱpushȱoutȱofȱagricultureȱorȱpullȱfromȱ
industry,ȱAfricaȱhasȱurbanizedȱtoȱtheȱsameȱlevelȱasȱAsiaȱoverȱtheȱlastȱ
halfȬcentury.ȱNaturalȱresourcesȱextractiveȱactivitiesȱareȱhighlyȱcapitalȬ
intensive,ȱandȱtheirȱproductionȱcreatesȱveryȱlittleȱdirectȱemployment.ȱ
Butȱ theȱ rentsȱ generatedȱ provideȱ aȱ differentȱ originȱ forȱ aȱ “pull”ȱ intoȱ
urbanȱ areasȱ asȱ theȱ increasedȱ purchasingȱ powerȱ madeȱ availableȱ fromȱ
resourcesȱincreasesȱdemandȱforȱurbanȱgoodsȱandȱamenities.ȱ
WhetherȱurbanizationȱisȱdifferentȱinȱAfricaȱmayȱnotȱmatterȱasȱmuchȱ
asȱ theȱ consequences.ȱ Ifȱ urbanizationȱ isȱ unaccompaniedȱ byȱ formalȱ
employmentȱ andȱ broadȬbasedȱ incomeȱ gains,ȱ thenȱ citiesȱ willȱ becomeȱ
concentrationsȱ ofȱ relativelyȱ richerȱ peopleȱ purchasingȱ lowȬlevelȱ servicesȱ
fromȱ thoseȱ migratingȱ toȱ cities.ȱ Theȱ creationȱ ofȱ slumsȱ willȱ beȱ inevitableȱ
andȱ theȱ concentrationȱ ofȱ basicȱ infrastructureȱ servicesȱ toȱ caterȱ toȱ theȱ
higherȬincomeȱ partsȱ ofȱ theȱ cityȱ willȱ continueȱ theȱ cycleȱ ofȱ poverty,ȱ
whetherȱ inȱ ruralȱ areasȱ orȱ inȱ cities.ȱ Oneȱ canȱ alsoȱ visualizeȱ theȱ
developmentȱ ofȱ importantȱ serviceȱ sectorsȱ thatȱ reflectȱ theȱ geographicalȱ
andȱ physicalȱ advantagesȱ ofȱ theȱ region.ȱ Theȱ broaderȱ issueȱ ofȱ viableȱ
developmentȱ strategiesȱ thenȱ fallsȱ backȱ onȱ governmentȱ toȱ createȱ theȱ
conditionsȱ forȱ higherȱ densities,ȱ betterȱ connectivity,ȱ andȱ deliberateȱ andȱ
targetedȱ interventionsȱ toȱ makeȱ developmentȱ inclusiveȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ
2008).ȱȱ
DensityȱwithoutȱCongestion:ȱAreȱThereȱSolutionsȱ
ThatȱAreȱFeasibleȱandȱAffordable?ȱȱ
RapidȱurbanizationȱisȱprojectedȱtoȱcontinueȱinȱAfrica,ȱandȱmanyȱprimateȱ
citiesȱmayȱdoubleȱorȱtripleȱinȱtheȱnextȱtwoȱdecades.ȱPredictingȱtheȱfutureȱ
sizeȱ ofȱ Africanȱ citiesȱ isȱ riskyȱ sinceȱ theȱ spatialȱ transformationsȱ thatȱ
accompanyȱdevelopmentȱorȱrespondȱtoȱeconomicȱshocksȱcannotȱeasilyȱbeȱ
foreseenȱ (Hendersonȱ 2005).ȱ Moreover,ȱ itȱ isȱ difficultȱ toȱ separateȱ
urbanizationȱ policiesȱ fromȱ broaderȱ economicȱ policies,ȱ economicȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
11
ȱ
planning,ȱandȱtheȱroleȱofȱtheȱstate.ȱTrade,ȱinvestment,ȱandȱspecializationȱ
resultȱinȱspatialȱtransformations;ȱtheseȱwillȱbeȱsmootherȱifȱlandȱmarketsȱ
functionȱ well,ȱ ifȱ localȱ infrastructureȱ isȱ ableȱ toȱ boostȱ competitiveȱ
advantage,ȱandȱifȱcitiesȱofferȱtheȱamenitiesȱandȱservicesȱrequiredȱbyȱtheȱ
growingȱworkforce.ȱGoodȱurbanȱpoliciesȱareȱrequiredȱtoȱmaintainȱwellȬ
functioningȱ citiesȱ (Freireȱ 2013).ȱ Someȱ expertsȱ haveȱ identifiedȱ landȱ
policiesȱ andȱ taxȱ policiesȱ asȱ criticalȱ elements,ȱ whileȱ othersȱ haveȱ stressedȱ
governanceȱ moreȱ generally.ȱ Oneȱ keyȱ variableȱ thatȱ distinguishesȱ
successfulȱfromȱunsuccessfulȱcitiesȱisȱtheȱqualityȱofȱinfrastructure.ȱ
Thereȱhasȱbeenȱconsiderableȱworkȱonȱtheȱdearthȱofȱinfrastructureȱinȱ
SubȬSaharanȱ Africaȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2010)ȱ andȱ itsȱ linkȱ toȱ lowerȱ ratesȱ ofȱ
economicȱ growth.ȱ Equallyȱ important,ȱ however,ȱ isȱ theȱ impactȱ ofȱ
infrastructureȱ investmentsȱ onȱ theȱ generationȱ ofȱ outputȱ andȱ incomeȱ andȱ
jobs.ȱ Aȱ simpleȱ pictureȱ ofȱ energyȱ accessȱ andȱ economicȱ activityȱ forȱ
Tanzaniaȱ (figureȱ 5)ȱ showsȱ theȱ clearȱ relationshipȱ betweenȱ infrastructureȱ
andȱ theȱ levelȱ ofȱ economicȱ activityȱ inȱ cities.ȱ Mostȱ Tanzanianȱ citiesȱ haveȱ
electrificationȱratesȱatȱorȱbelowȱ20ȱpercentȱofȱtheȱpopulation.ȱȱ
ȱ
Figureȱ5:ȱEnergyȱAccessȱandȱEconomicȱAtivityȱinȱTanzanianȱCitiesȱ
ȱ
Source:ȱBasedȱonȱdataȱfromȱNationalȱAccountsȱofȱTanzanianȱMainlandȱandȱPowerȱSystemȱ
MasterȱPlanȱ2012ȱUpdate.ȱ
12
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
Therefore,ȱ itȱ isȱ notȱ surprisingȱ thatȱ perȱ capitaȱ incomeȱ inȱ thoseȱ
secondaryȱcitiesȱisȱoneȱquarterȱtoȱoneȱhalfȱofȱincomeȱinȱtheȱcapital.ȱLikeȱ
education,ȱ infrastructureȱ isȱ theȱ greatȱ equalizer.ȱ Moreover,ȱ onceȱ
connected,ȱ theȱ infrastructureȱ citiesȱ canȱ generateȱ willȱ scaleȱ economiesȱ inȱ
waysȱ similarȱ toȱ agglomeratedȱ cities.ȱ Givenȱ theȱ patternȱ describedȱ byȱ
CollierȱandȱVenablesȱ(2011)ȱofȱone,ȱundersizedȱprimaryȱcity,ȱAfricaȱmustȱ
betterȱconnectȱitsȱsecondaryȱorȱintermediateȬsizedȱcitiesȱ(inȱlineȱwithȱtheȱ
establishedȱ evidenceȱ ofȱ theȱ importanceȱ ofȱ connectivityȱ andȱ prosperity)ȱ
whileȱ tryingȱ toȱ achieveȱ theȱ largerȱ densitiesȱ requiredȱ forȱ efficiencyȱ inȱ
productionȱandȱserviceȱdelivery.ȱȱ
Givenȱ theȱ realitiesȱ ofȱ geography,ȱ connectivityȱ cannotȱ beȱ viewedȱ
onlyȱwithinȱnationalȱborders.ȱThisȱhasȱimplicationsȱforȱcitiesȱandȱspatialȱ
planning.ȱ Someȱ citiesȱ willȱ beȱ closerȱ toȱ aȱ railȱ linkȱ orȱ aȱ portȱ inȱ aȱ
neighboringȱcountry,ȱsoȱtheȱeconomicsȱwillȱrequireȱadditionalȱeffortsȱinȱ
theȱ realmȱ ofȱ politicalȱ economy.ȱ Greaterȱ regionalȱ integrationȱ andȱ
cooperationȱ willȱ beȱ importantȱ forȱ sharedȱ infrastructure,ȱ suchȱ asȱ energyȱ
supply,ȱasȱwellȱasȱforȱoverallȱgrowth.ȱTheȱlackȱofȱsizeȱandȱdensityȱcan,ȱinȱ
someȱ respects,ȱ beȱ compensatedȱ forȱ byȱ connectedȱ cities,ȱ andȱ deeperȱ
integrationȱ andȱ cooperationȱ canȱ leadȱ toȱ largerȱ economicȱ dividends.ȱ
CrossȬborderȱmigrationȱandȱitsȱmanagementȱisȱgettingȱattentionȱinȱmanyȱ
ofȱ theȱ Africanȱ agendasȱ andȱ someȱ progressȱ isȱ beingȱ recorded.ȱ Suchȱ
integrationȱisȱoccurringȱalongȱtheȱcorridorsȱofȱselectedȱtradeȱroutesȱandȱ
couldȱ mirrorȱ theȱ largerȱ megacitiesȱ ofȱ Asiaȱ ifȱ regionalȱ infrastructureȱ
obstaclesȱcanȱbeȱovercomeȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2009).ȱȱ
Theȱ particularȱ characteristicsȱ ofȱ theȱ Africaȱ regionȱ requireȱ specificȱ
urbanizationȱ policies.ȱ Drawingȱ fromȱ theȱ Worldȱ Developmentȱ Reportȱ 2009ȱ
(WorldȱBankȱ2009),ȱsomeȱpillarsȱareȱessential.ȱFirst,ȱAfricanȱcountriesȱareȱ
characterizedȱ byȱ lowȱ populationȱ densitiesȱ inȱ smallȱ andȱ scatteredȱ cities,ȱ
whichȱ lackȱ scaleȱ andȱ primacy—although,ȱ atȱ theȱ cityȱ level,ȱ densitiesȱ areȱ
asȱhighȱasȱinȱLatinȱAmericaȱorȱEastȱAsia.ȱTheȱpopulationȱmovementsȱwillȱ
beȱ intenseȱ inȱ theȱ nearȱ futureȱ asȱ theȱ regionȱ movesȱ upȱ theȱ urbanizationȱ
ladder.ȱ Nationalȱ developmentȱ policyȱ willȱ thereforeȱ needȱ toȱ focusȱ onȱ aȱ
portfolioȱofȱplacesȱtoȱimproveȱtheȱsynergiesȱandȱconnectivityȱofȱcities.ȱAsȱ
seenȱinȱfigureȱ6,ȱhalfȱofȱtheȱpopulationȱlivesȱinȱtheȱruralȱhinterlandȱandȱ
10ȱpercentȱinȱperiȬurbanȱareas.ȱToȱfacilitateȱmobilityȱandȱefficiencyȱinȱtheȱ
densificationȱ process,ȱ landȱ policies,ȱ infrastructureȱ investments,ȱ andȱ
marketȬbasedȱenergiesȱwillȱneedȱtoȱfocusȱequallyȱonȱbothȱmegacitiesȱandȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
13
ȱ
intermediateȱ andȱ secondaryȱ cities.ȱ Spatialȱ considerations—suchȱ asȱ
connectivityȱtoȱtheȱcapital,ȱaccessȱtoȱports,ȱandȱtheȱavailabilityȱofȱlargerȱ
(atȱ timesȱ crossȬborder)ȱ markets—willȱ beȱ keyȱ toȱ success.ȱ Therefore,ȱ
governmentsȱwillȱneedȱcustomizedȱdevelopmentȱplansȱbasedȱonȱenergy,ȱ
transport,ȱ andȱ economicȱ activity.ȱ Peopleȱ willȱ migrateȱ towardȱ economicȱ
opportunitiesȱandȱtheȱprovisionȱofȱbasicȱservices.ȱȱ
ȱ
Figureȱ6:ȱDistributionȱofȱPopulationȱinȱSubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱ
Megacities
13% Secondary
Remote
Rural
Areas
16%
cities
11%
Rural
Hinterland
50%
Periurban
areas
10%
ȱ
Source:ȱWorldȱBankȱ2010.ȱ
ȱ
Densification.ȱ Densificationȱ isȱ anȱ importantȱ elementȱ ofȱ efficientȱ
urbanizationȱinȱAfrica.ȱTheȱaverageȱpopulationȱdensityȱonȱtheȱcontinentȱ
(77ȱpeopleȱperȱsquareȱkilometer)ȱisȱstillȱamongȱtheȱlowestȱinȱtheȱworld.ȱ
Theȱ agglomerationȱ indexȱ inȱ theȱ Worldȱ Developmentȱ Reportȱ 2009ȱ givesȱ
Africaȱaȱscoreȱofȱ30ȱpercent,ȱcomparedȱwithȱaboutȱ50ȱpercentȱforȱtheȱrestȱ
ofȱtheȱworldȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2009).ȱAsȱaȱwhole,ȱurbanȱdensityȱinȱtheȱAfricanȱ
continentȱ isȱ quiteȱ flat,ȱ althoughȱ theȱ averageȱ cityȱ densityȱ isȱ aboutȱ theȱ
sameȱlevelȱasȱobservedȱinȱEastȱAsiaȱandȱLatinȱAmerica.ȱHowever,ȱrapidȱ
expansionȱ ofȱ periȬurbanȱ citiesȱ withoutȱ planningȱ andȱ withoutȱ
infrastructureȱ willȱ resultȱ inȱ patchyȱ development.ȱ Thisȱ willȱ increaseȱ theȱ
costsȱofȱprovidingȱbasicȱservicesȱandȱwillȱhurtȱconnectivityȱandȱmobilityȱ
ofȱlabor.ȱDensityȱmattersȱbecauseȱtheȱconcentrationȱofȱpeopleȱandȱfirmsȱ
inȱtownsȱandȱcitiesȱgenerateȱscaleȱandȱagglomerationȱeconomies,ȱbecauseȱ
theȱ costsȱ ofȱ providingȱ basicȱ servicesȱ declineȱ rapidlyȱ withȱ density,ȱ andȱ
becauseȱ densityȱ canȱ beȱ greener.ȱ Theȱ averageȱ greenhouseȱ gasȱ (GHG)ȱ
14
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
emissionȱ ofȱ aȱ denseȱ cityȱ isȱ exponentiallyȱ lowerȱ thanȱ aȱ sprawledȱ oneȱ
(Hoornwegȱ 2011).ȱ Theȱ challengeȱ inȱ Africaȱ willȱ beȱ toȱ getȱ theȱ “right”ȱ
densityȱ thatȱ harnessesȱ marketȱ forcesȱ toȱ encourageȱ concentrationȱ andȱ
promoteȱ convergenceȱ inȱ livingȱ standardsȱ betweenȱ villages,ȱ towns,ȱ andȱ
cities.ȱForȱinstance,ȱtheȱeconomicȱdensityȱinȱNewȱDelhiȱisȱmoreȱthanȱ60ȱ
timesȱ higherȱ thanȱ Accra;ȱ obviouslyȱ oneȱ isȱ overȬsizedȱ andȱ theȱ otherȱ
underȬsized.ȱPlannersȱwillȱhaveȱtoȱdealȱwithȱNewȱDelhi’sȱproblemsȱasȱaȱ
retrofit,ȱwhereasȱAccra’sȱplannersȱhaveȱtheȱchanceȱtoȱanticipateȱandȱplanȱ
(WorldȱBankȱ2013c).ȱ
ȱ
Expansionȱofȱbasicȱservices.ȱTheȱprovisionȱofȱinfrastructureȱandȱpublicȱ
servicesȱ shouldȱ beȱ cheaperȱ andȱ moreȱ efficientȱ inȱ denserȱ areas,ȱ andȱ
indeedȱ thisȱ isȱ theȱ case.ȱ However,ȱ theȱ sheerȱ sizeȱ ofȱ newȱ populationsȱ
typicallyȱconstitutesȱaȱsubstantialȱburdenȱforȱalreadyȱstretchedȱmunicipalȱ
budgets.ȱ Theȱ resultȱ isȱ thatȱ inȱ someȱ casesȱ serviceȱ coverageȱ hasȱ beenȱ
declining,ȱ notablyȱ withȱ regardsȱ toȱ waterȱ supply.ȱ Adequateȱ
investments—whetherȱ publicȱ orȱ private—inȱ infrastructureȱ andȱ servicesȱ
willȱ beȱ crucialȱ toȱ reapȱ theȱ benefitsȱ ofȱ density.ȱ Furthermore,ȱ inadequateȱ
provisionȱ ofȱ basicȱ servicesȱ doesȱ notȱ deterȱ theȱ migrationȱ ofȱ peopleȱ toȱ
cities;ȱtheyȱwillȱcomeȱjustȱforȱtheȱchanceȱofȱgettingȱtheseȱservices.ȱ
ȱ
Infrastructure.ȱ Africanȱ countriesȱ lagȱ behindȱ theirȱ peersȱ inȱ developingȱ
countriesȱinȱinfrastructureȱprovisionȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2010).ȱTheȱdifferencesȱ
areȱ particularlyȱ largeȱ forȱ pavedȱ roads,ȱ powerȱ generation,ȱ andȱ accessȱ toȱ
potableȱ waterȱ andȱ sanitation.ȱ Accessȱ toȱ electricityȱ reachesȱ onlyȱ 16ȱ
percentȱ ofȱ Africanȱ citizens,ȱ comparedȱ withȱ 41ȱ percentȱ inȱ otherȱ
developingȱ countries.ȱ Averageȱ powerȱ consumptionȱ isȱ 124ȱ kilowattsȱ perȱ
capita,ȱ orȱ 10ȱ percentȱ ofȱ thatȱ inȱ theȱ restȱ ofȱ theȱ developingȱ worldȱ (Worldȱ
Bankȱ2010).ȱAfricanȱfirmsȱreportȱlosingȱ5ȱpercentȱofȱtheirȱsalesȱbecauseȱofȱ
frequentȱ powerȱ outages;ȱ thisȱ figureȱ jumpsȱ toȱ 20ȱ percentȱ forȱ informalȱ
firms.ȱ Whileȱ privateȱ firmsȱ areȱ eagerȱ toȱ exploreȱ theȱ potentialȱ ofȱ Africanȱ
rapidȱgrowingȱmarkets,ȱtheȱlackȱofȱinfrastructureȱandȱredȱtapeȱconstituteȱ
majorȱobstaclesȱtoȱprivateȱinvestment.ȱȱ
ȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
15
ȱ
Miles per 1,000 inhabitants
Figureȱ7:ȱPavedȱRoadsȱinȱCitiesȱinȱSubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱ(milesȱperȱ1,000ȱ
inhabitants)ȱȱ
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Addas
Abeba
Dar as
Salaam
Dakar
City
SSA
average
Average of
developing
Cities
ȱ
Source:ȱWorldȱBankȱ2006.ȱ
ȱ
Strengtheningȱ connectivity.ȱ Citiesȱ withinȱ aȱ countryȱ areȱ notȱ isolatedȱ
entitiesȱ andȱ theirȱ successȱ isȱ closelyȱ linkedȱ toȱ theirȱ connectivityȱ withȱ
domesticȱandȱinternationalȱmarkets.ȱCitiesȱinȱAfricaȱhaveȱrelativelyȱpoorȱ
connectivityȱwithȱdomesticȱandȱinternationalȱmarkets.ȱUrbanizationȱhasȱ
beenȱ associatedȱ withȱ motorization,ȱ butȱ investmentȱ inȱ roadsȱ andȱ
improvedȱ trafficȱ managementȱ hasȱ lagged,ȱ leadingȱ toȱ highȱ levelsȱ ofȱ
congestion.ȱ Whileȱ muchȱ isȱ madeȱ ofȱ Africa’sȱ distanceȱ fromȱ worldȱ
markets,ȱ theȱ primaryȱ problemȱ isȱ domestic—longȱ distancesȱ withinȱ
countries.ȱ Africaȱ hasȱ oneȱ ofȱ theȱ lowestȱ roadȱ densitiesȱ inȱ theȱ world,ȱ
secondȱonlyȱtoȱLatinȱAmericaȱ(figureȱ7).ȱButȱunlikeȱLatinȱAmerica,ȱAfricaȱ
hasȱaȱthirdȱofȱitsȱpopulationȱinȱlandlockedȱcountriesȱandȱevenȱmoreȱfarȱ
fromȱ accessȱ toȱ regionalȱ ifȱ notȱ globalȱ markets.ȱ Lowȱ interȬregionalȱ
transportȱ costsȱ areȱ alsoȱ criticalȱ toȱ fosteringȱ industrialȱ competitiveness,ȱ
particularlyȱ inȱ theȱ contextȱ ofȱ retainingȱ tradeȱ andȱ manufacturingȱ
competitivenessȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2009).ȱ Africaȱ scoresȱ poorlyȱ onȱ logisticsȱ
indices.ȱȱ
Highȱtransportȱcostsȱaddȱtoȱtheȱhighȱfragmentationȱofȱtheȱcontinent.ȱ
Transportationȱ costsȱ fromȱ Westȱ Africaȱ toȱ theȱ Unitedȱ Statesȱ areȱ twiceȱ
thoseȱofȱotherȱregions.ȱItȱtakesȱmoreȱthanȱ40ȱdaysȱforȱgoodsȱtoȱpassȱtheȱ
borderȱ inȱ Africa,ȱ twiceȱ theȱ periodȱ inȱ Latinȱ America.ȱ Forȱ landlockedȱ
16
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
countriesȱ theȱ constraintsȱ areȱ evenȱ larger.ȱ Integrationȱ isȱ theȱ obviousȱ
recommendation;ȱ butȱ whileȱ thereȱ areȱ manyȱ internationalȱ agreements,ȱ
theyȱnotȱnecessarilyȱreflectȱsuccessfulȱcooperation.ȱForȱexample,ȱtheȱcostsȱ
ofȱparticipatingȱinȱtheȱagreementsȱareȱtooȱhigh,ȱgivenȱtheȱmeagerȱbenefitsȱ
andȱsmallȱsizeȱofȱparticipatingȱeconomies.ȱAgreementsȱacrossȱcitiesȱandȱ
regionsȱ withȱ similarȱ culturesȱ andȱ languageȱ areȱ moreȱ likelyȱ toȱ beȱ
successful.ȱ Integrationȱ betweenȱ neighboringȱ citiesȱ acrossȱ countriesȱ canȱ
alsoȱ provideȱ theȱ baseȱ forȱ broaderȱ integration.ȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africaȱ hasȱ
manyȱ pairsȱ ofȱ largeȱ citiesȱ thatȱ areȱ nearȱ eachȱ otherȱ butȱ separatedȱ byȱ
nationalȱ borders.ȱ Agreementsȱ betweenȱ theseȱ citiesȱ orȱ triangulationȱ ofȱ
agreementsȱ likeȱ thoseȱ startedȱ inȱ Eastȱ Asiaȱ inȱ theȱ 1980sȱ canȱ promoteȱ
integrationȱ acrossȱ space.ȱ Finally,ȱ theȱ coastlineȱ ofȱ Westȱ Africaȱ isȱ theȱ
locationȱ ofȱ aȱ successionȱ ofȱ largeȱ cities,ȱ fromȱ Abidjanȱ toȱ Lome.ȱ Theȱ
potentialȱ ofȱ multicountryȱ agglomerationsȱ shouldȱ beȱ consideredȱ whenȱ
thinkingȱofȱinfrastructureȱandȱconnectiveȱinvestments.ȱUNȱHabitatȱ(2010)ȱ
hasȱ identifiedȱ threeȱ majorȱ urbanȱ corridorsȱ thatȱ areȱ formingȱ aroundȱ theȱ
productionȱ andȱ tradeȱ ofȱ cotton.ȱ Theseȱ areȱ illustrationsȱ ofȱ crossȬborderȱ
spatialȱthinkingȱthatȱwouldȱrequireȱconcreteȱpolicyȱfollowȬup.ȱȱ
SustainableȱCitiesȱandȱInclusiveȱGrowthȱ
Whileȱ urbanizationȱ canȱ speedȱ upȱ economicȱ transformationȱ andȱ fosterȱ
broadȬbasedȱ growth,ȱ itȱ canȱ alsoȱ leadȱ toȱ persistentȱ povertyȱ andȱ
unsustainabilityȱ ifȱ notȱ properlyȱ managed.ȱ Theȱ mostȱ importantȱ negativeȱ
externalitiesȱ areȱ congestion,ȱ pollution,ȱ andȱ concentrationȱ ofȱ peopleȱ andȱ
assetsȱinȱareasȱproneȱtoȱpollutionȱandȱnaturalȱhazards.ȱIfȱleftȱunregulatedȱ
andȱ inȱ theȱ faceȱ ofȱ poorȱ planning,ȱ theȱ benefitsȱ ofȱ citiesȱ canȱ beȱ
overshadowedȱbyȱtheirȱcosts.ȱInȱrapidlyȱgrowingȱeconomiesȱlikeȱChina,ȱ
theseȱ costsȱ areȱ highȱ andȱ increasinglyȱ moreȱ transparent.ȱ Prematureȱ
mortalityȱ linkedȱ toȱ airȱ pollutionȱ isȱ oneȱ suchȱ consequence.ȱ Inȱ Africa,ȱ
particulateȱ matterȱ pollutionȱ isȱ veryȱ highȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2013b),ȱ
compoundingȱ theȱ dangersȱ associatedȱ withȱ untreatedȱ sewage,ȱ
contaminatedȱ waterȱ sources,ȱ andȱ roadȱ accidents.ȱ Theseȱ areȱ allȱ
preventableȱwithȱbasicȱinfrastructureȱinvestments.ȱȱ
Withȱincreasingȱnumbersȱofȱpeopleȱlocatingȱinȱcitiesȱwithȱhighȱrisksȱ
ofȱ naturalȱ disasters,ȱ policiesȱ thatȱ strengthenȱ sustainabilityȱ areȱ essential.ȱ
Africa’sȱurbanȱareasȱareȱoftenȱlocatedȱinȱlowȬriverȱdeltasȱorȱcoastalȱareasȱ
directlyȱ exposedȱ toȱ seaȬlevelȱ riseȱ andȱ coastalȱ surges,ȱ andȱ thusȱ areȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
17
ȱ
especiallyȱ vulnerableȱ toȱ disasterȱ andȱ climateȱ change.ȱ Inȱ Tanzania,ȱ aȱ 2ȱ
degreeȱ orȱ moreȱ warmingȱ inȱ globalȱ temperaturesȱ couldȱ causeȱ 5–19ȱ
centimetersȱ ofȱ landȱ toȱ beȱ submergedȱ byȱ risingȱ seaȱ levelsȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ
2013d).ȱ Theȱ forcedȱ dislocationȱ ofȱ coastalȱ populationsȱ willȱ overwhelmȱ
alreadyȱ weakȱ administrativeȱ structuresȱ andȱ precariousȱ finances.ȱ
Environmentalȱ externalitiesȱ generatedȱ byȱ urbanizationȱ areȱ notȱ beingȱ
properlyȱ addressedȱ andȱ theȱ riskȱ andȱ costsȱ ofȱ damageȱ toȱ infrastructureȱ
areȱ veryȱ substantial.ȱ Inȱ Namibia,ȱ forȱ example,ȱ afterȱ theȱ majorȱ floodsȱ inȱ
2009,ȱ theȱ costsȱ forȱ reconstructionȱ ofȱ theȱ transportȱ infrastructureȱ wereȱ
estimatedȱtoȱbeȱnearlyȱUS$350ȱmillionȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2013d).ȱȱ
Successfulȱ urbanizationȱ isȱ primarilyȱ aboutȱ coordinatingȱ variousȱ
typesȱ ofȱ longȬrunȱinvestment.ȱ Sinceȱurbanȱ policiesȱlockȱ inȱ developmentȱ
patternsȱforȱdecadesȱtoȱcome,ȱtheyȱneedȱtoȱbeȱwellȱdesignedȱatȱtheȱoutset.ȱ
TheȱWorldȱBankȱandȱUNEPȱhaveȱarguedȱtheȱmeritsȱofȱsustainable,ȱgreenȱ
growthȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2012;ȱ Hallegatteȱ 2012).ȱ Itsȱ basicȱ tenetsȱ includeȱ
efficientȱ useȱ ofȱ resources,ȱ lowerȱ energyȱ consumption,ȱ andȱ reducedȱ
emissions.ȱ Greenȱ sustainableȱ developmentȱ isȱ smartȱ policyȱ insofarȱ asȱ itȱ
canȱ avoidȱ gettingȱ lockedȱ intoȱ unsustainableȱ andȱ ultimatelyȱ costlyȱ
developmentȱ paths.ȱ Citiesȱ areȱ fundamentalȱ forȱ anyȱ greenȱ growthȱ
agenda.ȱAtȱtheȱcityȱlevelȱthisȱagendaȱunfoldsȱalongȱthreeȱpillars:ȱȱ
1.
2.
3.
Cityȱ formȱ (densityȱ leadsȱ toȱ lowerȱ GHGȱ emissionsȱ andȱ lessȱ
pollution)ȱȱ
Greeningȱ publicȱ investmentsȱ andȱ purchasingȱ (buildings,ȱ
energy,ȱwasteȱmanagement,ȱurbanȱtransport)ȱbyȱeasingȱtheȱwayȱ
forȱgreenȱstartȬupsȱandȱtrainingȱofȱlocalȱworkersȱȱ
Raisingȱ consumerȱ awarenessȱ andȱ lowingȱ theȱ costsȱ ofȱ greenȱ
technologyȱpurchasesȱ(Leipzigerȱ2012;ȱOECDȱ2011)ȱȱ
Fromȱ aȱ greenȱ growthȱ perspective,ȱ theȱ massiveȱ needȱ forȱ
infrastructureȱ investmentȱ mayȱ beȱ anȱ opportunityȱ forȱ Africanȱ citiesȱ toȱ
adoptȱgreenerȱtechnologies,ȱpromoteȱdensity,ȱinvestȱinȱconnectivity,ȱandȱ
avoidȱlockȬinȱinvestmentsȱthatȱwillȱbeȱdifficultȱtoȱreverseȱinȱtheȱfuture.ȱItȱ
isȱ wellȱ establishedȱ thatȱ inȱ theȱ absenceȱ ofȱ smartȱ policiesȱ asȱ describedȱ
above,ȱ economicȱ growthȱ willȱ resultȱ inȱ increasedȱ carbonȱ emissions—atȱ
leastȱ untilȱ publicȱ pressureȱ leadsȱ toȱ abatementȱ policiesȱ (Hoornwegȱ andȱ
Freireȱ 2013).ȱ Figureȱ 8ȱ showsȱ theȱ crossȬcountryȱ relationȱ betweenȱ perȱ
capitaȱCO2ȱandȱperȱcapitaȱGDPȱforȱ120ȱcountries.ȱThreeȱpointsȱareȱclear:ȱ
18
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
first,ȱ theȱ relationshipȱ isȱ positive;ȱ second,ȱ theȱ shapeȱ ofȱ aȱ fittedȱ curveȱ isȱ
exponential;ȱ third,ȱ thereȱ isȱ muchȱ higherȱ variabilityȱ amongȱ highȬincomeȱ
economies,ȱdenotingȱdifferencesȱinȱincentivesȱandȱabatementȱpolicies.4ȱ
ȱ
Figureȱ8:ȱCarbonȱEmissionsȱGoȱUpȱwithȱIncomeȱȱ
Per capita CO2 (2009)
25
20
15
10
5
0
4
6
8
10
Ln per capita income (2009)
12
ȱ
Sources:ȱWorldȱBankȱ(2013)ȱforȱperȱcapitaȱincome;ȱBodenȱetȱal.ȱ(2013)ȱforȱCO2ȱemissions.ȱ
ȱ
Oneȱ persuasiveȱ argumentȱ isȱ thatȱ theȱ greenȱ growthȱ agenda,ȱ theȱ
urbanizationȱstrategiesȱthatȱcountriesȱcanȱpursue,ȱandȱbasicȱdevelopmentȱ
policiesȱtoȱfosterȱhigh,ȱsustained,ȱandȱinclusiveȱgrowthȱareȱreallyȱoneȱandȱ
theȱ same.ȱ Theȱ basicȱ infrastructureȱ investmentsȱ neededȱ toȱ makeȱ citiesȱ
efficientȱ andȱ competitive,ȱ andȱ theȱ investmentsȱ neededȱ toȱ makeȱ citiesȱ
moreȱresilientȱandȱmanageable,ȱandȱtheȱinvestmentsȱneededȱtoȱimproveȱ
livabilityȱandȱwelfareȱofȱinhabitants,ȱcoincide.ȱThisȱisȱtheȱessenceȱofȱtheȱ
greenȱgrowthȱagenda:ȱhowȱtoȱtakeȱadvantageȱofȱtheȱurgencyȱtoȱinvestȱinȱ
infrastructureȱandȱpromoteȱgrowthȱwhileȱimprovingȱresourceȱefficiency,ȱ
reducingȱwaste,ȱandȱpromotingȱsocialȱinclusionȱandȱresilienceȱ(Halegatteȱ
2011).ȱTheȱagendaȱwillȱincludeȱlandȱpoliciesȱtoȱpromoteȱdensity;ȱenergyȱ
policiesȱ toȱ promoteȱ efficiencyȱ andȱ useȱ ofȱ renewableȱ sourcesȱ (especiallyȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
4ȱ Aȱ similarȱ graphȱ displayingȱ emissionsȱ overȱ timeȱ wouldȱ showȱ thatȱ mostȱ OECDȱ countriesȱ
startedȱ onȱ theȱ pathȱ toȱ theirȱ currentȱ perȱ capitaȱ emissionsȱ 20ȱ yearsȱ ago,ȱ whileȱ emergingȱ
economiesȱareȱrapidlyȱcatchingȱup.ȱȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
19
ȱ
forȱ buildingsȱ andȱ urbanȱ traffic);ȱ priceȱ policiesȱ toȱ discourageȱ wasteȱ inȱ
consumptionȱ ofȱ waterȱ andȱ energy;ȱ andȱ integratedȱ policiesȱ toȱ containȱ
congestion,ȱ encourageȱ density,ȱ andȱ reduceȱ theȱ useȱ ofȱ privatelyȱ ownedȱ
carsȱ inȱ theȱ rapidlyȱ growingȱ citiesȱ ofȱ Africa.ȱ Thisȱ isȱ theȱ urbanizationȱ
challenge,ȱ andȱ howȱ governmentȱ dealsȱ withȱ itȱ willȱ helpȱ determineȱ theȱ
economicȱfutureȱofȱAfricanȱeconomies.ȱ
Makingȱurbanizationȱinclusiveȱisȱmoreȱthanȱaȱmantra.ȱItȱimpliesȱthatȱ
urbanizationȱ shouldȱ beȱ aȱ keyȱ elementȱ ofȱ bringingȱ inclusiveȱ orȱ broadȬ
basedȱgrowthȱtoȱAfricanȱcitiesȱandȱtowns,ȱratherȱthanȱcreatingȱslumsȱinȱ
largeȱ citiesȱ andȱ unsustainableȱ livingȱ inȱ smallerȱ ones.ȱ Butȱ despiteȱ itsȱ
developmentȱ potentialȱ asȱ vehiclesȱ forȱ inclusion,ȱ urbanizationȱ andȱ cityȱ
growthȱ inȱ Africaȱ haveȱ deepenedȱ divisions.ȱ Forȱ example,ȱ twoȱ thirdsȱ ofȱ
Africa’sȱurbanȱpopulationȱlivesȱinȱinformalȱsettlementsȱorȱslumsȱandȱ60ȱ
percentȱofȱtotalȱurbanȱemploymentȱisȱinȱtheȱinformalȱeconomy.ȱWithoutȱ
aȱradicalȱshiftȱinȱpriorities,ȱtheseȱconditionsȱwillȱonlyȱgetȱworse.ȱWeȱhaveȱ
seenȱ thatȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africa’sȱ urbanȱ populationȱ hasȱ increasedȱ fromȱ 23ȱ
percentȱinȱ1970ȱtoȱ37ȱpercentȱinȱ2011,ȱwhileȱurbanȱpovertyȱdeclinedȱonlyȱ
marginallyȱ fromȱ 41.5ȱ toȱ 33.6ȱ percentȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2013b).ȱ Thisȱ isȱ notȱ aȱ
goodȱtrackȱrecord,ȱandȱisȱcontraryȱtoȱtrendsȱinȱotherȱpartsȱofȱtheȱworld.ȱ
Theȱ mostȱ promisingȱ avenueȱ toȱ achievingȱ someȱ degreeȱ ofȱ economicȱ
justiceȱ seemsȱ toȱ beȱ theȱ provisionȱ ofȱ aȱ minimalȱ levelȱ ofȱ publicȱ services.ȱ
Thisȱ inȱ turnȱ willȱ requireȱ theȱ infrastructureȱ neededȱ toȱ provideȱ suchȱ
servicesȱ(Arnottȱ2009).ȱ
Policiesȱ toȱ affectȱ povertyȱ alleviationȱ inȱ Africaȱ mayȱ wellȱ needȱ toȱ
includeȱ urbanȱ interventionsȱ throughoutȱ theȱ citiesȱ ofȱ differentȱ sizesȱ andȱ
specializations,ȱ includingȱ intermediateȬsizeȱ citiesȱ andȱ smallerȱ marketȱ
townsȱ thatȱ serveȱ theȱ ruralȱ sector.ȱ Aȱ surveyȱ inȱ ruralȱ Kagera,ȱ Tanzaniaȱ
overȱ 20ȱ yearsȱ foundȱ thatȱ aboutȱ 50ȱ percentȱ ofȱ thoseȱ whoȱ exitedȱ povertyȱ
didȱ soȱ byȱ transitioningȱ fromȱ agricultureȱ intoȱ smallȱ ruralȱ towns.ȱ Onȱ
average,ȱ 40–50ȱ percentȱ ofȱ householdsȱ reliedȱ onȱ nonfarmȱ householdȱ
enterprisesȱ asȱ anȱ incomeȱ sourceȱ (Christiansenȱ etȱ al.ȱ 2013).ȱ Moreȱ
generally,ȱhouseholdȱenterprisesȱhaveȱbeenȱresponsibleȱforȱtheȱmajorityȱ
ofȱ theȱ nonagriculturalȱ employmentȱ growthȱ inȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africa,ȱ andȱ
thisȱ trendȱ isȱ likelyȱ toȱ continueȱ forȱ severalȱ decades.ȱ Whileȱ informalȱ
solutionsȱ mayȱ beȱ moreȱ suitableȱ toȱ theȱ incomeȱ andȱ educationȱ levelȱ ofȱ
manyȱ Africanȱ townsȱ andȱ cities,ȱ government’sȱ responsibilityȱ toȱ provideȱ
basicȱ accessȱ toȱ servicesȱ shouldȱ targetȱ whereȱ theȱ poorȱ are.ȱ Forȱ severalȱ
20
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
countriesȱ inȱ Africa,ȱ theȱ potentialȱ forȱ manufacturingȱ andȱ servicesȱ toȱ
absorbȱ ruralȱ laborȱ surplusȱ mayȱ beȱ lessȱ thanȱ inȱ countriesȱ withȱ strongȱ
tradableȱ sectorsȱ inȱ cities.ȱ Inȱ theseȱ cases,ȱ Africa’sȱ jobsȱ mayȱ wellȱ endȱ upȱ
beingȱ closerȱ toȱ theȱ agriculturalȱ sector;ȱ however,ȱ theyȱ cannotȱ emergeȱ
withoutȱbasicȱinfrastructureȱservices.ȱȱ
ObservationsȱforȱtheȱFuture:ȱAsȱAfricaȱUrbanizesȱ
Inȱ orderȱ toȱ makeȱ senseȱ ofȱ urbanizationȱ inȱ Africa,ȱ itȱ isȱ usefulȱ toȱ firstȱ
recognizeȱ thatȱ Africa’sȱ populationȱ remainsȱ predominantlyȱ rural.ȱ Aboutȱ
66ȱpercentȱofȱtheȱinhabitantsȱliveȱinȱruralȱareasȱwithȱsignificantȱvariationȱ
acrossȱcountriesȱ(tableȱ1).ȱInȱAfrica’sȱmiddleȬincomeȱcountries,ȱhalfȱofȱtheȱ
inhabitantsȱ stillȱ liveȱ inȱ ruralȱ areas,ȱ whereasȱ inȱ theȱ landlocked,ȱ lowȬ
incomeȱ countriesȱ theyȱ accountȱ forȱ aboutȱ 70ȱ percentȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2010).ȱ
Theȱvastȱmajorityȱofȱtheȱpopulationȱlivesȱinȱtheȱruralȱhinterlandsȱwithinȱ
sixȱhoursȱtravelȱtimeȱofȱcitiesȱhavingȱatȱleastȱ50,000ȱinhabitants.ȱOneȱthirdȱ
ofȱAfrica’sȱurbanȱpopulationȱisȱconcentratedȱinȱtheȱregion’sȱ36ȱmegacitiesȱ
withȱmoreȱthanȱ1ȱmillionȱinhabitants.ȱHowever,ȱmuchȱofȱtheȱremainingȱ
populationȱ isȱ spreadȱ acrossȱ 232ȱ intermediateȱ citiesȱ ofȱ betweenȱ 100,000ȱ
andȱ 1ȱ millionȱ inhabitantsȱ andȱ inȱ periȬurbanȱ areas.ȱ Soȱ whileȱ muchȱ ofȱ
Africaȱ canȱ beȱ officiallyȱ classifiedȱ asȱ urbanized,ȱ theseȱ settlementsȱ areȱ
urbanȱ withȱ significantȱ caveats.ȱ Mostȱ lackȱ basicȱ infrastructureȱ andȱ
amenitiesȱ andȱ mostȱ areȱ thereforeȱ unableȱ toȱ captureȱ theȱ usualȱ economicȱ
benefitsȱofȱcities.ȱ
ȱ
Table 1: Current Distribution of Population by Type of Settlement
Percentage of total population
GNI per
Capita ($)
Megacities
Secondary
cities
Peri-urban
areas
Rural
hinterland
Remote rural
areas
Sub-Saharan
Africa
875
13.4
10.4
10.3
49.8
16.4
Middle income
countries
5,081
24.6
16.2
12.5
50.1
1.6
Country type
Source:ȱWorldȱBankȱ2010.ȱ
ȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
21
ȱ
Withinȱ thisȱ reality,ȱ Africanȱ urbanizationȱ facesȱ fourȱ broadȱ
challenges:ȱȱ
1.
2.
3.
4.
rapidȱ growthȱ ofȱ populationsȱ withȱ lowȱ levelsȱ ofȱ economicȱ
activityȱbasedȱonȱinadequateȱphysicalȱandȱhumanȱcapitalȱȱ
lowȱ density,ȱ sprawl,ȱ andȱ informalityȱ inȱ periȬurbanȱ fringesȱ thatȱ
exacerbateȱpovertyȱinȱtheȱcontinentȱȱ
weakȱ coverageȱ ofȱ basicȱ infrastructureȱ services,ȱ notablyȱ water,ȱ
energy,ȱ andȱ sanitation,ȱ whichȱ makesȱ itȱ difficultȱ toȱ improveȱ
welfareȱinȱeitherȱurbanȱorȱruralȱenvironmentsȱȱ
weaknessesȱinȱadministration,ȱinstitutions,ȱandȱoverallȱplanningȱ
capacityȱȱ
Theseȱ areȱ theȱ challengesȱ ofȱ development,ȱ regardlessȱ ofȱ whereȱ
peopleȱresideȱorȱwhatȱtheirȱtypeȱofȱsettlement.ȱForȱthisȱreason,ȱweȱwouldȱ
argueȱ againstȱ separatingȱ theȱ urbanizationȱ agendaȱ fromȱ theȱ overallȱ
developmentȱ agenda.ȱ Oneȱ criticalȱ dimensionȱ ofȱ aȱ responseȱ toȱ theȱ fourȱ
challengesȱisȱeconomicȱplanning,ȱanȱindispensableȱtoolȱforȱtheȱgenerationȱ
ofȱ economicȱ growthȱ andȱ jobs,ȱ asȱ wellȱ asȱ theȱ deliveryȱ ofȱ servicesȱ toȱ theȱ
poor.ȱ Thisȱ includesȱ soundȱ developmentȱ planningȱ andȱ urbanȱ landȱ useȱ
planning.ȱ Anotherȱ dimensionȱ isȱ infrastructure—withȱ electricityȱ andȱ
transportȱbeingȱtheȱhighestȱpriority—toȱalleviateȱurbanizationȱpressuresȱ
andȱbottlenecksȱtoȱdevelopment.ȱȱ
AccordingȱtoȱtheȱWorldȱDevelopmentȱReportȱ2009ȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2009),ȱ
aȱstrategyȱtoȱpromoteȱefficientȱurbanizationȱshouldȱbeȱtargetedȱtoȱdensityȱ
levelȱ ofȱ eachȱ area.ȱ Moreȱ specifically,ȱ theȱ strategyȱ shouldȱ focusȱ onȱ landȱ
marketȱ efficiency,ȱ connectivity,ȱ andȱ targetedȱ interventionsȱ toȱ dealȱ withȱ
problemsȱarisingȱfromȱpollution,ȱcongestion,ȱandȱconcentrationȱofȱpeopleȱ
inȱ vulnerableȱ areas.ȱ Forȱ easeȱ ofȱ expositionȱ andȱ forȱ policyȱ purposes,ȱ weȱ
illustrateȱ theseȱ principlesȱ inȱ threeȱ typesȱ ofȱ Africanȱ cities:ȱ fastȱ growingȱ
citiesȱ(thoseȱgrowingȱatȱperhapsȱ4ȱpercentȱaȱyear,ȱsoȱtheyȱwillȱdoubleȱinȱ
sizeȱ inȱ lessȱ thanȱ 20ȱ years),ȱ majorȱ citiesȱ (capitalsȱ thatȱ areȱ expandingȱ
faster),ȱandȱmegacitiesȱ(ofȱaboutȱ10ȱmillionȱinhabitantsȱorȱmore)ȱ(tableȱ2).ȱȱ
ȱ
ȱ
22
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
23
9.1
4.8
1.6
4.2
4.1
Kinshasa/Congo,
Dem. Rep.
Luanda/Angola
Maputo/Mozambique
Kampala/Unganda
Abidjan/Côte
d’Ivoire
6.3
2.6
8.7
16.1
2025
3.0
4.7
3.0
3.7
4.1
Growth
(%)
Dakar/Senegal
Addis
Ababa/Ethiopia
Dar es
Salaam/Tanzania
Nairobi/Kenya
City/county
2.9
2.8
3.4
3.3
2010
4.3
4.2
6.2
5.7
2025
2.8
3.9
3.7
3.8
Growth
(%)
Population (millions)
Major cities
ȱ
ȱ
ȱ
Cairo/Egypt
City/county
Kinshasa/Congo,
Dem. Rep.
Johannesburg/
South Africa
9.1
3.9
10.6
12.5
2010
16.1
4.1
15.8
15.6
2025
4.1
0.7
2.7
1.5
Growth
(%)
Population (millions)
Mega cities/mega regions
Lagos/Nigeria
Source:ȱUNȬHabitatȱ2010ȱ(http://www.unhabitat.org.jo/en/inp/Upload/1052216_Data%20tables.pdf).ȱ
2010
City/county
Population (millions)
Fast growing
ȱ
ȱ
ȱ
ȱ
Table 2: Projected Urban Populations
ȱ
TheȱFastȱGrowingȱCity:ȱTheȱCaseȱforȱEarlyȱActionȱȱ
Countriesȱ atȱ aȱ lowȱ levelȱ ofȱ urbanizationȱ butȱ withȱ rapidȱ populationȱ
growthȱfaceȱtheȱmostȱcomplicatedȱchallengeȱbutȱalsoȱtheȱgreatestȱpolicyȱ
opportunity.ȱBurkinaȱFaso,ȱBurundi,ȱtheȱDemocraticȱRepublicȱofȱCongo,ȱ
Ethiopia,ȱMalawi,ȱNiger,ȱTanzania,ȱandȱUgandaȱareȱinȱthisȱcategory.ȱTheȱ
urbanȱpopulationȱisȱgrowingȱaboveȱ4ȱpercentȱaȱyear,ȱwhileȱmoreȱthanȱ75ȱ
percentȱ ofȱ theȱ populationȱ isȱ stillȱ livingȱ inȱ ruralȱ areas.ȱ Incomesȱ areȱ lowȱ
andȱ infrastructureȱ isȱ lagging.ȱ Publicȱ policyȱ willȱ probablyȱ favorȱ
investmentȱ inȱ productiveȱ infrastructureȱ toȱ accommodateȱ theȱ needsȱ ofȱ
economicȱ activityȱ andȱ newȱ firms,ȱ leavingȱ newȱ migrantsȱ toȱ fendȱ forȱ
themselvesȱ inȱ theȱ urbanȱ periphery.ȱ Theȱ capitalȱ cities—includingȱ
Kinshasa,ȱLuanda,ȱMaputo,ȱandȱKampala—haveȱbeenȱgrowingȱfastȱatȱ4–
5ȱ percentȱ aȱ yearȱ andȱ willȱ continueȱ toȱ growȱ fastȱ inȱ theȱ nearȱ future.ȱ Thisȱ
willȱ absorbȱ muchȱ ofȱ theȱ migrationȱ fromȱ theȱ ruralȱ areasȱ andȱ theȱ
demographicȱgrowthȱofȱtheȱurbanȱareasȱthemselves.ȱȱ
Theseȱ citiesȱ couldȱ useȱ theȱ opportunityȱ ofȱ rapidȱ growthȱ toȱ makeȱ
efficientȱ decisionsȱ inȱ termsȱ ofȱ bothȱ investmentȱ andȱ cityȱ form.ȱ Theȱ mostȱ
importantȱ policyȱ toolȱ wouldȱ beȱ forwardȬlookingȱ urbanȱ participatoryȱ
planning,ȱ whichȱ couldȱ guideȱ urbanȱ expansionȱ andȱ theȱ associatedȱ
infrastructureȱneeds.ȱUrbanȱdynamicsȱareȱseldomȱcorrectlyȱforeseen,ȱandȱ
inȱmostȱcasesȱtheȱpoliticalȱeconomyȱhasȱtheȱlastȱwordȱinȱdeterminingȱtheȱ
locationȱ ofȱ infrastructure.ȱ Toȱ beȱ efficient,ȱ planningȱ shouldȱ beȱ flexible,ȱ
participatory,ȱ andȱ indicativeȱ (withȱ aȱ visionȱ forȱ theȱ nextȱ 10–15ȱ years).ȱ
Urbanȱ referenceȱ mapsȱ shouldȱ planȱ majorȱ roadsȱ andȱ cityȱ services,ȱ theȱ
areasȱforȱurbanȱexpansion,ȱandȱtheȱreservesȱforȱamenities.ȱȱ
Planningȱ shouldȱ aimȱ toȱ reduceȱ sprawl,ȱ enhanceȱ densification,ȱ andȱ
preventȱ developmentȱ inȱ environmentallyȱ precariousȱ zones.ȱ Withoutȱ
realisticȱfiscalȱprojectionsȱforȱresourceȱavailability,ȱurbanȱplansȱoftenȱfail.ȱ
Dakar,ȱ Lagos,ȱ andȱ Maputoȱ recentlyȱ preparedȱ cityȱ developmentȱ
strategies,ȱ asȱ frameworksȱ toȱ encourageȱ participationȱ fromȱ theȱ
communityȱinȱdiscussingȱchallengesȱandȱopportunities.ȱȱ
Theȱ secondȱ policyȱ priorityȱ wouldȱ beȱ theȱ efficientȱ useȱ ofȱ landȱ andȱ
institutionsȱ toȱ strengthenȱ propertyȱ rights,ȱ recordȱ marketȱ transactions,ȱ
andȱ steadilyȱ moveȱ towardȱ moreȱ efficientȱ landȱ markets.ȱ Povertyȱ andȱ
inclusionȱ issuesȱ canȱ bestȱ beȱ addressedȱ byȱ recognizingȱ theȱ roleȱ ofȱ
informalȱ settlementsȱ inȱ providingȱ shelterȱ forȱ millionsȱ ofȱ poorȱ people,ȱ
andȱ ensuringȱ theȱ deliveryȱ ofȱ basicȱ services,ȱ includingȱ educationȱ andȱ
24
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
health,ȱ regardlessȱ ofȱ location.ȱ Thisȱ developmentȱ ofȱ humanȱ capitalȱ isȱ
essentialȱforȱbridgingȱtheȱinequalityȱgapȱinȱnextȱgenerations,ȱbutȱalsoȱinȱ
upgradingȱ theȱ skillsȱ ofȱ theȱ workforce.ȱ Financeȱ willȱ needȱ toȱ comeȱ fromȱ
theȱcentralȱgovernment,ȱbutȱlandȬbasedȱtaxesȱ(includingȱpropertyȱtaxes)ȱ
andȱ userȱ chargesȱ canȱ beȱ effectivelyȱ used.ȱ Internationalȱ assistanceȱ couldȱ
beȱ importantȱ inȱ identifyingȱ theȱ factorsȱ thatȱ wouldȱ makeȱ possibleȱ earlyȬ
onȱgreenȱstrategiesȱforȱurbanizingȱAfrica.ȱ
TheȱLargeȱCities:ȱCapitalizingȱonȱEconomicȱActivityȱȱ
Darȱ esȱ Salaam,ȱ Nairobi,ȱ andȱ Addisȱ Ababaȱ areȱ large,ȱ fastȬgrowingȱ citiesȱ
withȱ theȱ potentialȱ toȱ captureȱ agglomerationȱ economies.ȱ Nationalȱ
universitiesȱ areȱ producingȱ plannersȱ andȱ engineersȱ whoȱ areȱ ableȱ toȱ
contributeȱ toȱ theȱ urbanȱ sustainabilityȱ debate.ȱ Theirȱ countriesȱ areȱ
reachingȱ theȱ 50ȱ percentȱ urbanizationȱ rateȱ andȱ haveȱ governanceȱ
structuresȱinȱplace.ȱTheȱchallengeȱisȱtoȱensureȱcontinuingȱurbanȱgrowth,ȱ
whileȱimprovingȱdensityȱinȱtheȱcenterȱandȱconnectivityȱtoȱtheȱperiphery.ȱ
Thisȱ groupingȱ includesȱ theȱ oilȬexportingȱ countriesȱ andȱ theȱ middleȬ
incomeȱcountries,ȱsuchȱasȱBotswana,ȱCapeȱVerde,ȱandȱSenegal.ȱMiddleȬ
incomeȱcountriesȱofȱNorthernȱAfricaȱhaveȱintroducedȱeffectiveȱpoliciesȱtoȱ
absorbȱ informalȱ settlementsȱ andȱ provideȱ shelterȱ toȱ theȱ population.5ȱ Forȱ
largeȱ citiesȱ inȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africa,ȱ theȱ challengeȱ willȱ beȱ toȱ includeȱ theȱ
emergingȱ developmentȱ inȱ theȱ peripheryȱ andȱ consolidateȱ orȱ reformȱ theȱ
olderȱ structuresȱ inȱ cityȱ centers.ȱ Onȱ landȱ management,ȱ thereȱ mayȱ beȱ
benefitȱ inȱ relaxingȱ regulationsȱ soȱ thatȱ citiesȱ canȱ growȱ inȱ heightȱ andȱ
captureȱ theȱ benefitsȱ ofȱ density.ȱ Ifȱ governanceȱ issuesȱ canȱ beȱ effectivelyȱ
handled,ȱgreaterȱcooperationȱwithȱtheȱprivateȱsectorȱcanȱyieldȱeconomicȱ
gains,ȱespeciallyȱinȱconnectiveȱinfrastructure.ȱ
MegaȱCitiesȱ
IfȱUNȱHabitatȱprojectionsȱproveȱaccurate,ȱbyȱ2050,ȱ20ȱofȱtheȱlargestȱworldȱ
citiesȱ willȱ beȱ inȱ Africa.ȱ Largeȱ citiesȱ bringȱ enormousȱ opportunitiesȱ ofȱ
growthȱandȱprosperity,ȱprovidedȱthatȱbasicȱpolicyȱstructuresȱareȱinȱplace.ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱ Egypt,ȱ Morocco,ȱ andȱ Tunisiaȱ haveȱ achievedȱ aȱ remarkableȱ declineȱ inȱ theȱ percentageȱ ofȱ
populationȱlivingȱinȱslums.ȱTheyȱhaveȱusedȱmethodologiesȱsimilarȱtoȱtheȱhighlyȱsuccessfulȱ
programsȱ inȱ Hongȱ Kongȱ SAR,ȱ China,ȱ andȱ Singapore,ȱ includingȱ strongȱ presenceȱ ofȱ theȱ
publicȱ sectorȱ andȱ anȱ effectiveȱ housingȱ financeȱ system.ȱ Thousandsȱ ofȱ housingȱ unitsȱ haveȱ
beenȱmadeȱavailableȱinȱtheȱlastȱ10ȱyears.ȱ
5
Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities
25
ȱ
Thisȱ includesȱ wellȬfunctioningȱ landȱ markets,ȱ urbanȱ mobility,ȱ andȱ waysȱ
toȱ dealȱ withȱ pollution.ȱ Toȱ accommodateȱ increasingȱ populationȱ andȱ
absorbȱ slums,ȱ financialȱ marketsȱ haveȱ toȱ workȱ wellȱ andȱ complexȱ
programsȱ needȱ toȱ beȱ organizedȱ toȱ helpȱ createȱ affordableȱ housingȱ
markets.ȱ Cairo,ȱ Johannesburg,ȱ andȱ Moroccanȱ citiesȱ haveȱ beenȱ
experimenting.ȱ Targetedȱ programsȱ haveȱ beenȱ designedȱ andȱ
implemented,ȱ someȱ withȱ remarkableȱ success:ȱ forȱ example,ȱ theȱ
percentageȱofȱslumȱdwellersȱinȱCairoȱfellȱfromȱ50ȱpercentȱtoȱ17ȱpercentȱinȱ
20ȱyears.ȱTheȱcityȱhasȱalsoȱauctionedȱpublicȱlandȱtoȱfinanceȱinfrastructureȱ
programs.ȱ Theȱ Egyptianȱ governmentȱ alsoȱ triedȱ aȱ costlyȱ planȱ toȱ
accommodateȱ newcomersȱ byȱ creatingȱ newȱ citiesȱ inȱ theȱ desert,ȱ butȱ withȱ
littleȱ success.ȱ Inȱ Seoul,ȱ theȱ creationȱ ofȱ aȱ polycentricȱ structureȱ forȱ theȱ
megaȬregionȱ embracedȱ connectivityȱ byȱ placingȱ newȱ localitiesȱ relativelyȱ
closeȱ toȱ Seoulȱ (10ȱ kilometers).ȱ Thisȱ schemeȱ allowedȱ forȱ anȱ organicȱ
decentralizationȱ andȱ economicȱ specializationȱ accordingȱ toȱ economicȱ
clustering.ȱTheȱRepublicȱofȱKoreaȱhasȱsignificantȱexperienceȱinȱmanagingȱ
megacities.ȱ Financingȱ usuallyȱ isȱ notȱ aȱ majorȱ obstacle,ȱ sinceȱ theȱ bulkȱ ofȱ
nationalȱeconomicȱactivityȱisȱcenteredȱinȱandȱaroundȱtheȱmegacity.ȱThus,ȱ
theȱ emergingȱ megacitiesȱ ofȱ Lagosȱ andȱ Kinshasaȱ willȱ haveȱ modelsȱ toȱ
chooseȱfromȱifȱtheyȱplanȱeffectively.ȱ
Goingȱ forward,ȱ urbanizationȱ canȱ eitherȱ beȱ seenȱ asȱ aȱ threatȱ orȱ anȱ
opportunity.ȱ Africaȱ hasȱ someȱ distinctȱ characteristicsȱ inȱ itsȱ urbanizationȱ
pattern.ȱHowever,ȱthereȱisȱalsoȱaȱbodyȱofȱpracticeȱthatȱcanȱbeȱdrawnȱonȱ
toȱenableȱurbanizationȱtoȱplayȱaȱpositive,ȱandȱprobablyȱdecisive,ȱroleȱinȱ
Africa’sȱ development.ȱ Notȱ toȱ dealȱ withȱ urbanizationȱ willȱ retardȱ
developmentȱ prospectsȱ andȱ proveȱ costly.ȱ Itȱ isȱ theȱ developmentȱ agendaȱ
forȱtheȱcontinent.ȱ
ȱ
26
ȱ
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
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30
Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ
A
frica is urbanizing fast. Its rate of urbanization soared from 15
percent in 1960 to 40 percent in 2010, and is projected to reach
60 percent in 2050 (UN Habitat 2010). Urban populations in Africa
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region, and challenging policy makers to harness urbanization for
sustainable and inclusive growth. Although many have written about
the phenomena, what is clear to us is that is impossible to deal with
Africa’s growth and poverty challenges without managing urbanization. Urbanization is not a sub-plot, but rather the main policy narrative for Africa.
Maria Emilia Freire is a Senior Advisor at the Growth Dialogue and
former Senior Advisor at the World Bank.
Somik Lall is a Lead Economist for Urban Development in the World
Bank’s Urban and Disaster Risk Management Department.
Danny Leipziger is the Managing Director of the Growth Dialogue
and Professor of International Business at the George Washington
University School of Business in Washington, DC.
The Growth Dialogue is a network of senior policy makers, advisors,
and academics dedicated to sustainable and shared economic
growth. Towards this end, it aims to promulgate new views and
insights on policies that can help shape global thinking; to be an
independent voice on economic growth; and to be an active platform
for policy dialogue among those entrusted with producing growth in
developing and emerging market economies.
http://www.growthdialogue.org/
info@growthdialogue.org