Closing The Deal - National Reinsurance Corporation of the

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PHILIPPINE NON-LIFE

INSURANCE BUSINESS

TRENDS & DEVELOPMENTS

- A Reinsurer’s Perspective

10 th Philippine General Insurance Summit,

24 April 2013

Hotel Intercontinental, Makati City

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Agenda

3.

4.

1.

2.

Major Losses in 2012

Snapshots of 2013 Treaty Renewals

Analysis of Selected Industry Trends 2001 to 2011

Steps Moving Forward

2

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

1. MAJOR LOSSES IN 2012

3

Major Losses in 2012

A. Insured Loss (in excess of PHP 100M)

Event / Assured

1.

Est. Loss (in PHP)

Habagat Flood Loss

(est. 70% Property, 23% Motor, 7% other Lines)

3 – 4 B

2.

3.

4.

5.

Ever Gotesco Fire Loss

Triple Star Packaging Fire Loss

Deco Arts Marketing Fire Loss

Tutuban Properties Fire Loss

6.

Trans-Manila Fire Loss

B. Economic Loss

1.

Typhoon Bopha ( mostly Agricultural loss )

732 M

470 M

419 M

386 M

121 M

36.9 B

4

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

2. SNAPSHOTS OF 2013

TREATY RENEWALS

5

Event Limits Under Fire Treaties

YEAR

2010 2011

Number of Fire Treaties

- Without Event Limit 52 46

- With Event Limit 14 10

2012

11

45

A) Gross Earthquake

Aggregates (in PHP) 491 B 359 B 395 B

B) Gross Earthquake Aggregate

After Event Limit (in PHP) 338 B 222 B 179 B

B/A 69% 62% 45%

Note: as of Jan 2013 100% of the Treaties have Event Limit

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

6

Breakdown of EQ Accumulation by Zone

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 10

Zone A*Total

Zone B Total

2010

3%

12%

0%

1%

36%

29%

11%

3%

3%

4%

80%

20%

Percent of Total

2011

2%

9%

0%

1%

34%

31%

12%

3%

2%

6%

77%

23%

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

* Zone A excludes Zone 10

2012

2%

10%

0%

0%

28%

34%

11%

4%

2%

9%

75%

25%

7

Rates on Line for Fire XOL Covers

ROL Range

2012

YEAR

High : 48%

Low: 0.245%

2013

High: 52%

Low: 0.359%

Average ROL 5.08%

Range of Decrease - Increase

5.71%

-18.55% to 10.75%

8

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

3. ANALYSIS OF SELECTED

INDUSTRY TRENDS

(2001-2011)

9

Number of Policies (in 1,000s)

Total Fire and Allied

Perils

Fire Only

Earthquake

Typhoon

Flood

Extended Cover

Marine

Motor

Accident

Fidelity and Surety

2011 2010 2009 2006 2001

1,204 1,359 1,156

806 857 764

109

106

136

124

137

92

949

744

72

55

729

590

46

35

96

87

104

138

86

77

43

36

21

36

175 170 138 158 157

5,790 6,550 5,520 4,010 2,250

420

346

511

341

542

319

394

356

422

267

10

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Total Gross Direct Premiums Written (in PHP Billions)

Total Fire and Allied

Perils

Fire Only

Earthquake

Typhoon

Flood

Extended Cover

Marine

Motor

Accident

Fidelity and Surety

2011 2010 2009 2006 2001

12.41

9.05

1.85

0.71

0.46

0.33

4.20 3.52

13.51 11.79 10.09

2.25

1.77

10.52

7.36

1.86

0.63

0.40

0.28

3.83

2.41

1.56

9.86

7.43

1.39

0.51

0.29

0.24

2.12

1.23

8.67

7.04

0.93

0.30

0.17

0.22

3.05

8.33

1.38

1.04

7.04

6.00

0.55

0.20

0.10

0.19

2.41

6.85

0.81

0.74

11

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

2001-2011 Graph: Total Gross Direct Premiums Written

(in PHP Billions)

Total Gross Premiums Written (in PHP Billions)

16.00

14.00

12.00

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001

Total Fire and Allied Perils

Fire Only

Earthquake

Typhoon

Flood

Extended Cover

Marine

Motor

Accident

Fidelity and Surety

12

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Total Direct Liabilities/Exposures (in PHP Trillions)

Total Fire and Allied

Perils

Fire Only

Earthquake

Typhoon

Flood

Extended Cover

Motor

2011 2010 2009 2006 2001

15.94 14.03 12.91 12.11

7.66

2.22

5.80

2.15

5.64

2.02

6.92

2.16

2.23

1.87

1.96

1.67

2.29

1.90

1.88

1.44

2.01

1.66

1.58

1.26

1.18

0.83

1.02

0.80

3.93

2.33

0.51

0.38

0.30

0.40

0.58

13

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Average Premium Rate by Class/Line of Business (Direct)

Total Fire and Allied

Perils

Fire Only

Earthquake

Typhoon

Flood

Extended Cover

Marine

Motor

Accident

Fidelity and Surety

2011 2010 2009 2006 2001

0.078% 0.075% 0.076% 0.072% 0.179%

0.118% 0.127% 0.132% 0.102% 0.258%

0.083% 0.086% 0.069% 0.043% 0.106%

0.032% 0.027% 0.025% 0.025% 0.053%

0.025% 0.021% 0.018% 0.021% 0.033%

0.017% 0.015% 0.015% 0.022% 0.047%

0.082% 0.088% 0.087% 0.084% 0.217%

0.809% 0.818% 0.798% 1.045% 1.187%

0.061% 0.104% 0.057% 0.036% 0.163%

0.656% 0.628% 0.333% 0.710% 0.637%

14

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Average Premium Rate by Class/Line of Business (Direct)

Average Premium Rate

1.400%

1.200%

1.000%

0.800%

0.600%

0.400%

0.200%

0.000%

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001

Total Fire and Allied Perils

Fire Only

Earthquake

Typhoon

Flood

Extended Cover

Marine

Motor

Accident

Fidelity and Surety

15

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Loss Ratio by Class/Line of Business (Direct)

Total Fire and Allied

Perils

Fire Only

Earthquake

Typhoon

Flood

Extended Cover

Marine

Motor

Accident

Fidelity and Surety

2011

56%

58%

3%

93%

245%

-12%

37%

43%

27%

10%

2010

42%

39%

2%

141%

117%

78%

87%

44%

36%

2%

2009

69%

58%

10%

288%

326%

74%

34%

50%

40%

2%

2006

52%

45%

8%

444%

65%

22%

33%

47%

48%

20%

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

2001

34%

36%

10%

33%

68%

29%

33%

54%

27%

18%

16

Graph of Loss Ratio

200%

180%

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Total Fire and Allied

Perils

Total Fire Earthquake Typhoon Flood Extended

Cover

Marine Motor Accident Fidelity and

Surety

2011

2010

2009

2006

2001

17

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Underwriting Profit Ratio by Class/Line of Business (Direct)

2011 2010 2009 2006 2001

Total Fire and Allied

Perils

Fire Only

Earthquake

Typhoon

Flood

Extended Cover

Marine

Motor

Accident

Fidelity and Surety

22%

20%

64%

-11%

-135%

74%

43%

35%

50%

67%

39%

42%

77%

-66%

-38%

2%

-6%

34%

41%

71%

11%

22%

67%

-202%

-227%

8%

48%

30%

40%

78%

27%

35%

67%

-331%

18%

56%

46%

31%

29%

57%

47%

44%

71%

50%

14%

53%

42%

28%

54%

69%

18

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Graph of Underwriting Profits

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

Total Fire and Allied

Perils

Fire Only Earthquake Typhoon Flood Extended

Cover

Marine Motor Accident Fidelity and

Surety

2011

2010

2009

2006

2001

19

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Average Gross Premiums Written Per Policy

Total Fire and Allied

Perils

Fire Only

Earthquake

Typhoon

Flood

Extended Cover

Marine

Motor

Accident

Fidelity and Surety

2011 2010 2009 2006 2001

10,302 7,740 8,534 9,129 9,664

11,231 8,587 9,722 9,461 10,183

16,911 13,597 10,183 13,001 11,881

6,730

4,795

5,086

3,787

5,524

3,399

5,459

3,978

5,778

4,565

3,815 2,046 3,113 6,262 5,231

24,027 22,494 25,548 19,261 15,292

2,331

5,362

5,106

1,799

4,727

4,592

1,827

3,919

3,848

2,077

3,519

2,909

3,039

1,916

2,794

20

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

COMPARISON OF

OPERATING RATIOS

ACCORDING TO

COMPANIES’ NET WORTH

21

Companies According to Net Worth, ROE and

U/W Profit, Loss and Acquisition Ratios

YEAR /

NETWORTH (PHP)

DOMESTIC

No. of

Companies

Average

ROE

U/W Profit

Ratio

Loss

Ratio

Acquisition

Ratio

2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011

Below 250 M

250 M to

500 M

Over 500 M

39

24

14

34 2.46% 3.77% 36% 37% 32% 33% 20% 19%

22

19

5.92% 4.52%

7.40% 6.09%

29%

33%

31%

28%

42%

41%

39%

43%

20%

19%

18%

20%

FOREIGN

TOTAL INDUSTRY

8

85

8 12.84% 9.87% 45% 37% 29% 33% 15% 17%

83 7.0% 6.0% 34% 31% 38% 40% 19% 19%

22

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

COMPARISON OF FIRE & A. P.

AVERAGE PREMIUM RATES

BY COMPANY CAPITALIZATION

23

Companies by Paid Up Capital

Domestic (PHP) below 250 M

Number of Companies

2011 2010

58 64

250 M to 500 M

Over 500 M

15

2

11

2

Foreign 8

83

8

85

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

2009

67

8

2

9

86

24

Companies by Paid Up Capital

Average Premium Rate : Fire and Allied Perils

2011 2010 2009

Domestic (PHP) below 250 M 0.115% 0.071% 0.066%

250 M to 500 M 0.072% 0.071% 0.059%

Over 500 M 0.067% 0.121% 0.159%

Foreign 0.096% 0.066% 0.083%

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

25

Companies by Paid Up Capital

Average Premium Rate : Fire only

2011 2010 2009

Domestic (PHP) below 250 M 0.179% 0.119% 0.104%

250 M to 500 M 0.107% 0.123% 0.112%

Over 500 M 0.126% 0.257% 0.231%

Foreign 0.139% 0.084% 0.125%

26

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Companies by Paid Up Capital

Average Premium Rate : Earthquake

2011 2010 2009

Domestic (PHP) below 250 M 0.089% 0.114% 0.095%

250 M to 500 M 0.074% 0.066% 0.049%

Over 500 M 0.109% 0.149% 0.086%

Foreign 0.120% 0.098% 0.096%

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

27

Companies by Paid Up Capital

Average Premium Rate : Typhoon

2011 2010 2009

Domestic (PHP) below 250 M 0.032% 0.027% 0.028%

250 M to 500 M 0.031% 0.026% 0.021%

Over 500 M 0.037% 0.045% 0.023%

Foreign

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

0.034% 0.026% 0.031%

28

Companies by Paid Up Capital

Average Premium Rate : Flood

2011 2010 2009

Domestic (PHP) below 250 M 0.027% 0.021% 0.019%

250 M to 500 M 0.020% 0.016% 0.012%

Over 500 M 0.032% 0.038% 0.024%

Foreign 0.039% 0.027% 0.038%

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

29

4. STEPS MOVING FORWARD

30

7.

8.

3.

4.

1.

2.

5.

6.

9.

Natural Perils-Related

Establishment of Philippine Catastrophe Facility (Pool or Company).

Flood Accumulation Reporting System.

Flood Modeling.

Proportional vs. Non-Proportional Cover for Natural Perils.

Tax Relief for Natural Perils Policies and Catastrophe Loss Reserves.

Review of Minimum Catastrophe Excess of Loss Protection Required by the Insurance Commission.

More accurate and up-to-date reporting of Catastrophe Claims.

Implementation of major infrastructure projects to mitigate consequences of natural catastrophes.

Relocation of settlements along catastrophe-prone areas like waterways, earthquake faults, volcanoes, etc.

31

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

1.

2.

3.

4.

Others

Review and rationalization of Fire Rates.

Government incentives for setting up head offices of insurance companies outside Metro Manila.

Tax relief on non-life insurance policies.

Incentives for mergers among insurance companies.

32

National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines

Acknowledgements:

• Insurance Commission Annual Reports 2001-2011

• Non Life Underwriting Division – PhilNaRe

• Actuarial and Corporate Planning Department – PhilNaRe

THANK YOU

Presenter:

Roberto B. Crisol

President & CEO

National Reinsurance Corp of the Philippines

33

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