IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT
The City of Moncton
PHASE 1 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A MULTI-USE SPORTS AND ENTERTAINMENT FACILITY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Purpose
This Phase 1 report assesses the market capacity for, and benefits of, developing a new Multi-Use
Sports and Entertainment Facility to be located within the Downtown area. As the Moncton
Coliseum is almost 40 years old, its location, overall purpose, general functionality, and age
together represent a significant opportunity cost to the City in terms of maximizing the market
capture for sports and entertainment dollars as well as the wider economic potential associated with
major civic and commercial buildings.
The purpose of Phase 1 is to define the market opportunities and likely size of such a facility based
on market considerations. Phase 2 will provide a financial feasibility assessment. At that time, the
results of both Phase 1 (market) and Phase 2 will together define the recommended facility size and
program.
Trade Area
The market analysis defines three Trade Areas as follows:

The primary Trade Area consists of the south-eastern part of New Brunswick and one
county in Nova Scotia (Cumberland). This area is generally defined by a 1.5 hour
drive time and includes the City of Saint John. The primary Trade Area draws a
population of approximately 420,000. The PMA is considered the maximum extent of
the regular market area both for sports and the majority of, but by no means all,
entertainment events.

The secondary Trade Area is generally accessible within a 2 – 2.5 hour drive time
from the City of Moncton. The secondary Trade Area (exclusive of the PMA) comprises
a population of approximately 535,000. This market area is less relevant for regular
events such as hockey, but is an important source of market draw for higher profile
entertainment events, particularly those which offer only one stop in New Brunswick
and the Maritimes as a whole;

The tertiary Trade Area is generally accessible within a 3-4 hour drive time, but
includes all of Nova Scotia except for Cape Breton. As such it includes some areas
further than 4 hours drive time. It comprises an estimated 745,000 in population. This
Trade Area is highly occasional and relevant only to those very high profile events
which have a markedly regional draw such as internationally renowned musical acts
making only one stop in the Maritimes or Atlantic Canada.
Trade Area Summary (2008 Estimates)
Approximate
Drive Time
Population
Primary Trade Area
1.5 Hours
418,487
Secondary Trade Area
2 - 2.5 Hours
952,579
Tertiary Trade Area
3 - 5 Hours
1,695,731
New Brunwsick
754,465
Canada
33,327,758
*Population data cumulative
Source: IBI Group based on Financial Post Market Data
June 2009
Average Annual
Earnings
Per Capita
$23,699.13
$23,111.60
$22,084.00
$23,998.00
$27,212.00
Average Annual Earnings
as % of Canadian Average
87.09%
84.93%
81.16%
88.19%
IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT
The City of Moncton
PHASE 1 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A MULTI-USE SPORTS AND ENTERTAINMENT FACILITY

For the majority of the market analysis contained in this report, the focus is on the
primary Trade Area.
Market Profile
The City of Moncton is an economic leader in Atlantic Canada – it acts as a transportation,
communication and retail hub for the region. The City's economy is stable and diversified, with a
local unemployment rate that is consistently less than the national average. The Moncton CMA is
also one of the fastest growing regions in Eastern Canada.
The Moncton Coliseum meets the existing market demand in part but additional demand can be
captured to some degree. The strategic advantage of the location should enable the City and its
surrounding communities to fully capitalize on entertainment and events as a pillar in its economic
development strategy.
The potential should be viewed in the context of the Maritime economy: the size and number of
major urban centres in relative proximity, population growth, household income, size of economy
and employment are lower than Provinces such as Ontario. Notwithstanding, there are real
opportunities to realize a greater role for Moncton as a major stop on tour routes and as a
destination for travellers.
The market profile, in our view, demonstrates the market opportunity for sports and entertainment
development in the City based on the following observations:
June 2009

The City and region enjoys strategic access and has a potentially large Trade Area for
one-stop and one-off events;

The economy has demonstrated good diversification and housing demand is evident,
likely to fuel continued growth;

The primary Trade Area is a realistic market for the majority of events and captures
several important urban centres – thus for touring product which is routed through the
Maritimes and Newfoundland, there is a healthy scale to the market separate and
apart from the markets for places such as Halifax.

The demographic patterns are relatively encouraging vis-à-vis organic population
growth.

The income and household expenditure profiles relative to the Province are not
significantly different while it should be recognized that income is considerably below
the national average.

Evident from the review of the residential sector, the area remains active in terms of
residential and rental accommodation demand while the commercial accommodations
sector is leading the Province –all signs of strong fundamentals even if the current
economic downtown masks these structural attributes of the region.

The CMA is a destination, that has a diversified economy and tourism visitation has
flourished, bolstering spending in the retail and entertainment sectors.

Downtown is a significant employment node, a beneficiary of an existing residential
base and functions as a regional destination.
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IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT
The City of Moncton
PHASE 1 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A MULTI-USE SPORTS AND ENTERTAINMENT FACILITY
Sports Market

The fact of a recent history of lower average attendance at the Coliseum is not, in our
opinion, reason to lower the expectations on seat count; it should, however, caution
against the belief, unsupported by market information and attendance that capacity
exists for a facility in excess of 10,000 fixed seats.

The analysis demonstrates that potential exists to grow the market for the existing
hockey franchise and to tap the corporate market which is noticeably absent at
present.

The achievement of sustainable attendance is of critical importance as hockey
represents the principal event at the facility (some 35 regular games plus play-offs and
exhibitions).

The Premier Basketball League is potentially an opportunity for secondary tenants to
the facility
Non-Sports Market

A new facility can help Moncton increase its share of the entertainment market,
potentially by upwards of 50% based on the historic average of 11 to 12 events per
year (2005-2009). This target is applied to the average – the actual annual event totals
have fluctuated considerably and has been as high as 18 events in 2008; the potential
is therefore to maintain a consistently high level of entertainment events year to year.

Despite the large Trade Area within a reasonable drive time (2 hours plus), the
immediate Trade Area remains smaller than that for Halifax.

The projection of average annual event days for concerts and other entertainment
events likely to take place at a new downtown facility in Moncton is an average of 16 to
18 events.

The question remaining is the degree to which a new facility will cannibalize existing
market share or promote additional market growth; a fully cannibalised market is a risk
factor which should be carried in any financial business plan.
Convention Space
June 2009

The new Multi-Use Facility could include meeting and convention space as an ancillary
use, attached to the centre.

A recent PKF report concerning convention space in Moncton recommended that a
50,000 square foot facility with 24,000 square feet of rentable space be constructed in
the Downtown core.

The potential creation of additional convention or meeting space in Downtown, in
addition to the on-going operation of the Trade Centre as well as the addition of space
in the Casino could generate risks to the successful operation of any significant
convention/meeting space attached to the multi-use centre, or the Trade Centre.
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IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT
The City of Moncton
PHASE 1 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A MULTI-USE SPORTS AND ENTERTAINMENT FACILITY
Opportunity Costs

Based on the findings of our market research, there is an opportunity cost in terms of
future market share for sports and entertainment dollars over the long term, attached
to maintaining the status quo.

Over time, the relative position of the City may be eroded, attributed to the aging of the
facility and functional obsolescence, as well as the advent of new facilities in other
communities in Atlantic Canada.
Recommendations
June 2009

The PMA is most relevant as a basis for forward planning, especially in relation to
multi-stop entertainment product.

Based on market research, the existing facility in terms of seat count is capable of
meeting most of the existing demand as evidenced from recent years;

Only 7 out of 27 planned events in the current season are one-stop shows; the onestop show market is where a larger facility, comparable in scale, quality and functional
to any of the large centres from Quebec City to St. John’s would create improved
competitiveness for Moncton.

However, the benefits of having a large facility capable of capturing one-stop shows is
constrained by the supply of these shows; therefore, there is a need to balance the
additional market capture that could occur with the costs of constructing and operating
a large facility, one that may for all other purposes appear out of scale.

Based on our research of existing and future operation of the Moncton and Atlantic
Canada markets, it is recommended that the facility should have a fixed seat count of
approximately 9,000 seats.

From a market perspective, the 9,000 seat cap is a maximum in our view and assumes
a responsibility on the part of the City, tenants and operator to actively grow and
sustain the market for the centre over the medium to long-term.

A facility of this size provides Moncton with an order of magnitude higher in capacity to
improve its competitiveness with the Atlantic Canada market as a whole and compete
for the one-stop events and other special projects.

The financial feasibility analysis in Phase 2 will consider the potential viability of 8,000
to 10,000 fixed seats.

The relationship of the facility, its parking requirements and the availability of parking
and traffic circulation in Downtown is an important consideration. As a first step, the
City should undertake a parking needs assessment related to the recommended site
for the Multi-Use Sports and Entertainment Centre as input to the overall parking
strategy for Downtown.
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