Simulated Test Marketing
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STM products for evaluating new products

BASES, Burke Marketing Research
- Developed by Dr. Lynn Y.S. Lin in 1977
- Bought by Nielsen in 1998
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Assessor, M/A/R/C Research,
- Developed initially by Alvin J Silk and Glen L Urban in 1973
(Sloan School, MIT)
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Novaction
- Developed Perceptor/Concept testing system based in
Assessor in 1979
- Introduced Designor in 1986
- Bought by IPSOS in 2001
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MicroTest (Research International)
- Developed when RI was part of Unilever. RI became part of
Kantar (WPP) in 1989. Unilever now uses BASES for most of
their STM research
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BASES: Simulated Test Marketing
“BASES is a comprehensive, validated sales
estimating system which integrates consumer
response data with manufacturers’ marketing plans to
assess the volumetric potential of concepts and
products prior to introduction.”
BASES = Booz-Allen Sales Estimating System
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Agenda

BASES – Theoretical framework

BASES – The Methodology
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Modelling Overview - Deflation Factors


Consumers do not usually do what they claim to do.
There is, however, a strong correlation between
consumers’ claimed purchase behaviour and what
subsequently transpires in the marketplace.
Consumers tend to overstate their intended purchase
behaviour (albeit with consistency). The level of
overstatement varies by country, by culture, and by
measure.
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Modelling Overview

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

Take consumer response data
(what people say they will do);
Deflate claims to adjust for overstatement
Adjust for the impact of marketing activities;
To yield behavioural data
(a forecast of what people will actually do).
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BASES Modelling Paradigm
What consumers say
they will do
Consumer Response Data
Remove bias
Adjust for Overstatement
Trial and Repeat Models
Awareness
Adjust for what
the marketer will
do to influence
consumers
Distribution
Sampling
Promotions
Etc.
What consumers will
actually do
Estimate
For a combination of concept data,
product data, and marketing plan
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Volume Estimating Summarized
Trial
Volume
+
Repeat
Volume
# of Households in
Population
# of Households
Trying
X
X
Trial
Rate
Repeat
Rate
X
X
Average Trial Units Per
Purchase
Repeat Purchases Per
Repeater
=
Total
Volume
Adjusted for
overstatement
X
Average Repeat Units
Per Purchase
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Methodology
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Field Methodologies

BASES e-Panel of 225,000 panelists worldwide (of
which 125,000 in US)

Mall Intercept (CLT: Controlled Location Test)
- Live interviewing in mall sites
 Interviews are computerized but conducted by interviewer
- Use when have sniff or taste tests, or other

techniques which require an in-person interview
Other methodologies
- Telephone interview
- Door to door interviewing
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Data Collection Process
Concept
Recruit
Respondent in
e-Panel or on
location
Show
Concept
Stimulus
Product
Place Items
(In case of location
interviews, respondent
who claim they will not
try are excluded)
2-week
In-Home
Usage
(sample 300 – 500)
20-Minute
personal/
e-Panel
Interview
(sample 150 – 200)
15-Minute
phone/ ePanel
Interview
* “Definitely not try”, “Probably, not try”
+ For e-Panel studies, all respondents are placed
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Concept Stimulus




Concept board or commercial
Should contain as much information as will be
conveyed by advertising
Should also contain prices, sizes, and varieties
Nothing else
- Should not contain any other information about the
brand nor should it contain any competitive
information
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Introducing new Jasmine ambrosia drink
‘Refreshingly Nutritious’
Introducing a new ambrosia drink that is especially made for people
seeking a nutritious, appetizing drink that helps release anxiety.
Jasmine is made from nectar and green grape juice. It contains the
essence of the Jasmine flower which is known to regulate breathing and
reduce tension and anxiety. It contains no preservatives.
Jasmine is a healthy drink that is well suited for the entire family.
Sizes
330 ml:
6 x 330 ml:
$ 1.20
$ 6.00
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Introducing new Jasmine ambrosia drink
‘Refreshingly Nutritious’
Introducing a new ambrosia drink that is especially made for people
seeking a nutritious, appetizing drink that helps release anxiety.
Jasmine is made from nectar and green grape juice. It contains the
essence of the Jasmine flower which is known to regulate breathing and
reduce tension and anxiety. It contains no preservatives.
Jasmine is a healthy drink that is well suited for the entire family.
Sizes
330 ml:
6 x 330 ml:
$ 1.20
$ 6.00
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INTRODUCING NEW LUIGI’S
HOMESTYLE PASTA SAUCES
Pasta Lovers love the convenience of ready made sauce
that tastes homemade.
Preparing the right meals for your family is tough. Luckily, there is now an
easy-to-make alternative to the dull boring foods usually available when you’re
in a hurry: Luigi’s Homestyle.
New Luigi’s Homestyle pasta sauces are 100% natural and prepared with only the
freshest ingredients to make sure that your family gets the pasta sauce that they
love, without Mom having to spend all day in the kitchen. Simply pour ready made
Luigi’s Homestyle pasta sauce over prepared pasta and you have a nutritious 100%
Natural meal prepared for your family that they will love.
AVAILABLE IN your favourite shop
TWO SIZES
250ml Jar at $6.49
500ml Jar at $12.69
THREE FLAVORS:
TOMATO
MEAT
SWEET PEPPER & ONION
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Questionnaire Outline
Key Measures
Purchase intent
Units per purchase
Value for the price
Intensity of liking
Uniqueness
Diagnosis
Attribute Ratings
Likes/Dislikes
Source of Volume
Suggested Improvements
(after use)
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Interpretation
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Data Interpretation

Rating scale used for measuring purchase intent:
Concept
Definitely
Would Buy
Probably
Would Buy
After-use
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29
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Might/ Might
Not Buy
Probably Would
Not Buy
35
40
Definitely Would
Not Buy
15
10
8
6
4
good or bad?
Are these scores good or bad?
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Data Interpretation


BASES’ Database is the primary device used for
interpretation
- Database has several thousand concepts, covering
all categories (About 200,000 concepts in DB, in 2014)
- Benchmarks exist for all key measures both at
concept and after-use
Success Targets set for after use measures
- After-use Success Targets derived from products
tested by BASES that achieved in-market success
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New Product Success & Concept Purchase Intent
Concept purchase intent is not strongly correlated
with in-market success
% respondents

Concept Top-Two-Box Purchase Intent by
In-Market Success
Successful
Marginal
Failure
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New Product Success & After-Use Purchase Intent
(major determinant of long-term success)
On the contrary, after-use purchase intent is strongly
correlated with success
% respondents

After-Use Top-Two-Box Purchase Intent
by In-Market Success
Hurdle
Successful
Marginal
Failure
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BASES: Questions addressed



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What is the brand’s volume potential?
Trial and Repeat:
- What are the components of volume?
Source of growth:
- How much volume will come from your existing
brand and how much from competitors?
Diagnosis:
- What marketing plan elements drive volume, and
how can the plan be improved?
- What are the strengths and weaknesses of the
concept and product?
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