11 Februari 2015
Emas vs. Mata Uang: Pertarungan Berlanjut
“I’m positive [that] gold will go up substantially [in 2015] – say 30%. My belief is
that the big surprise this year is that investor confidence in central banks collapses.
And when that happens – I can’t short central banks, although I’d really like to,
and the only way to short them is to go long gold, silver and platinum. That’s the
only way. That’s something I will do. We simply have highly inflated asset markets.
Real estate is high, stocks are high, bonds are high, art prices are high, and interest
rates and short-term deposits are basically zero. The only sector that I think is very
inexpensive is precious metals, and in particular precious-metals stocks.”
-- Marc Faber
“We have this massive volatility in the currency markets and gold is a currency.
Gold has attracted a lot of attention here. Something like 84 percent of the world’s
population would have made money if they were invested in gold in the past year.
I think we can safely say that nearly 100 percent of the world’s population would
have made money if they owned gold in the month of January.”
-- Eric Sprott
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
“A friend asked me to choose one investment that I would want to leave to
my great-great-grandchildren. I immediately answered that it would be gold
coins. The reason I explained is as follows – corporations can disappear,
stocks can collapse, governments can change and they can fall, booms
and recessions come and go – but gold is intrinsic money, and no man
or nation has ever doubted its value. And they never will.”
-- Richard Russell
“The reality is that the global fiat currencies have now started their final leg down
that began with the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Before this Great
Purge is completed, all fiat currencies will reach their intrinsic value, which is
zero. There will be a panic into gold and this will save a handful of the world’s
population from the coming collapse of the global currencies. At the end of this
disastrous and chaotic period, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National
Bank won’t survive, nor will the Bank of Japan or the Fed. And if the central banks
won’t survive, neither will the commercial banks. Regardless of how this Great
Purge unfolds, now is the final opportunity to buy wealth protection insurance
in the form of physical gold and have it stored outside of the banking system.”
-- Egon von Greyerz
“Central bankers tend to be duplicitous and incompetent plutocrats. Investors would
be far better off placing their faith in markets and real money instead of fiat currencies
and empty promises. Of course, this misplaced faith will eventually lead to the biggest
shock of all … the soon to arrive collapse of paper currencies, soaring gold and silver
prices and the insolvent sovereign debt backed by central banks. When governments
finally lose control of the markets they currently dominate – currencies, bonds,
commodities, and equities – the collapse of the euro against the Swiss franc will be
seen as just an opening act compared to the chaos that is still to come.”
-- Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
“Is there peak gold that will become evident in the years to come? We can’t really answer
that. But we do know there is no peak dollar, as the Fed can essentially create as many
as it wants. There is also no such thing as peak yen or peak yuan or peak euro. Investors
worldwide are going to discover that they can’t trust the money that is issued by their own
governments and central banks. For this reason, we should expect the demand for gold to
go higher in the coming years. When all of the major countries in the world are debasing
their currencies at a staggering rate, people will be left with few alternatives. We should
not even be surprised if the Fed goes back into money creation mode if the stock market
goes down enough or the U.S. economy falls back into recession. Do you really think
Janet Yellen and the Fed are going to sit on their hands if the U.S. economy shows
significant signs of weakening? You should bet on more central bank inflation with
gold in your portfolio. If this idea of peak gold is true and new supplies start to diminish,
then it will just be icing on the cake as more people demand gold.”
-- Geoffrey Pike for Wealth Daily
“Gold is not a commodity. Gold is money. Gold actually performed extremely well
last year because it was the second strongest currency after the U.S. dollar. And
everybody who lives in a country where the central bank, with dumb policies,
weakens and devalues the paper currency values by printing money like mad, is
extremely well-protected by owning gold. Gold is fulfilling its historic function.”
-- Felix Zulauf
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Seperti minyak, emas tertekan di semester kedua 2014 akibat penguatan dolar AS.
Banyak analis mengibaratkan dolar AS seperti pakaian yang paling bersih di antara tumpukan cucian
kotor. Namun banyak yang lupa bahwa masih ada baju yang benar-benar bersih, yakni emas.
Untuk mengingatnya kembali, bahwa performa emas tahun lalu jauh lampaui tahun 2013, ketika
terjadi penurunan 28 persen – terbesar sejak awal masa pertama Ronald Reagan sebagai presiden
AS.
Simon A. Mikhailovich dari Tocqueville Bullion Reserve L.P. pada 13 Januari 2015 lal membuat
laporan yang luar biasa mengenai ilustrasi emas yang WAJIB DILIHAT para investor emas:
Regarding Gold In 2014,
Did You Know?
1. It is only in America that nobody seems to know or care but, in fact, during 2014 gold was the
second best performing currency after the US$.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
2. Most Western investors see gold as a short term trade even though over the past 10 years, gold is
+157% vs. S&P +70% and over the past 15 years, gold is +300% vs. S&P +40%.
3. When the Ruble collapsed in 2014, it was gold, not equities, which offered a safe haven. As the
Ruble declined 70% against the US$, Russian equities lost about 12% in Ruble terms whereas the
gold price in Rubles rose 73%.
4. Gold ETF holdings have declined with gold prices but silver ETF holdings have remained stable.
What gives? Over the past two years gold ETFs have served as a “swing bullion supplier” that
prevented supply shortages as prices of paper gold declined even as demand for physical gold has
remained strong.
5. While Western investors have been trading gold securities, real gold has been flowing to the East
where it is viewed as a core reserve holding that is independent from the fortunes of fiat currencies
and financial assets (see charts below of Russian Gold Reserves & Shanghai Gold Withdrawals).
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
In 2014 gold has protected investors whose currencies lost global purchasing power. This property of
gold is valued in the East where they continue taking advantage of the West’s willingness to part with
its bullion at current prices."
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Bahkan, “Swiss currency shock,” yang menurut Reuters, mengalami reaksi yang tertunda, “has raised
an awkward question many investors have been fearful of asking – what if central banks become as
unpredictable and fallible as they are powerful?”
James G. Rickards, editor dari Strategic Intelligence dan penulis laris menurut The New York Times
berjudul Currency Wars dan The Death of Money, menulis mengenai kebohongan bank sentral:
The Currency Wars’ “Pearl Harbor”
The most dramatic battle yet in the currency wars took place last Thursday
[January 15, 2015]. It was the financial equivalent of a Pearl Harbor sneak
attack...
"I find it a bit surprising that he did not contact me,” IMF Director Christine
Lagarde told CNBC’s Steve Liesman that day, “but, you know, we'll check on
that.”
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
You can almost imagine the conversation afterwards between Mario Draghi of the European Central
Bank (ECB) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan…
Mario Draghi: “Did you tell Christine?”
Thomas Jordan: “I thought you were going to tell her…”
Mario Draghi: “Wait, I thought you were!”
Switzerland had just abandoned its peg of the Swiss Franc to the Euro. The result was mayhem with
an immediate 30% drop in the value of the Euro against the Franc, and billions of dollars of trading
losses by banks and investors around the world.
Several foreign exchange brokers went bankrupt because their customers could not settle their losing
trades. The Swiss operated in total secrecy.
Currency wars resemble real wars in the sense that they do not involve continuous fighting all the
time. At certain times, there are intense battles, followed by lulls, followed by more intense battles.
But there is nothing new about the Swiss National Bank’s move. It’s the latest salvo in the currency
war that President Obama started in 2010 and it won’t be the last. It was in 2010 that the president
announced his National Export Initiative designed to double U.S. exports in five years.
The only way to do that was with a cheaper dollar, so the president’s policy amounted to a declaration
to the world that the U.S. wanted other countries to let their currencies go up so the dollar could go
down. Ten months later, the Brazilian Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, shocked global financial
elites by publicly proclaiming what everyone knew, but no one would say -- that the world was in a
new currency war.
The problem with currency wars is they last a long time; sometimes even fifteen or twenty years. The
reason is they have no logical conclusion, just back-and-forth devaluations and revaluations as
countries retaliate against each other.
We have seen this seesaw pattern re-emerge. The weak dollar of 2011 has turned into the strong
dollar of 2015. Countries that complained the weak dollar was hurting their exports in 2011 now
complain that the strong dollar is hurting their capital markets in 2015.
That’s the other problem with currency wars -- no one wins and everyone loses. Currency wars don’t
create growth; they just steal; growth temporarily from trading partners until the trading partners steal
it back with their own devaluations.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
The surprise revaluation of the Swiss Franc on Jan. 15 will not be the last such surprise. There are
many important pegs left in the international monetary system they are vulnerable to being broken.
Right now the Hong Kong dollar and the major Arab currencies are all tightly pegged to the U.S.
dollar.
The Chinese Yuan is loosely pegged to the U.S. dollar, too. If the U.S. raises interest rates this year
as the Fed has warned, the stronger dollar may force those countries to break the peg because their
own currencies become too strong and hurt their exports.
If the Fed does not raise interest rates, the result could be a violent reversal of current trends and a
weaker dollar as the “risk on” mantra causes capital to flow out of the U.S. and back to the emerging
markets. Either way, volatility is the one certainty.
The other problem with the currency wars is what the IMF calls “spillover” effects, also known as
financial contagion. Many mortgages in Poland, Hungary, and other parts of Central and Eastern
Europe are made not in local currency but in Swiss Francs. The stronger Swiss Franc means those
borrowers need more local currency to pay off their mortgages.
This could lead to a wave of mortgage defaults and a mortgage market meltdown similar to what the
U.S. experienced in 2007. This shows how a decision made in Zurich can wipe out a homeowner in
Budapest. Financial contagion works just like Ebola. Once an outbreak begins, it can be difficult to
contain. It may not be long before the Swiss Franc sneak attack infects investor portfolios in the U.S.
We’ll be monitoring the danger on your behalf. Financial contagion can also be a two-way street. It
not only creates dangers, it creates opportunities for investors who can connect the dots in the
currency wars. The easiest conclusion you can draw and act on is this simple truth: Do not believe
government and central bank lies.
This maxim is not without historical precedent. You’ve probably heard about Franklin Roosevelt’s own
sneak currency attack. In 1933, President Roosevelt devised a plan to increase the price of gold in
dollars, effectively a dollar devaluation. But he had a problem. If he increased the price of gold while
Americans owned it, the profit would go to the citizens, not the U.S. Treasury. He knew that he had to
lie to the American people about his intentions in order to pull off the theft of the century.
So Roosevelt issued an emergency executive order confiscating the gold at about $20.00 per ounce,
and then revalued it to $35.00 per ounce, with the Treasury getting the profits.
On Thursday [January 15, 2015], the Swiss National Bank pulled a similar stunt. Last November, the
Swiss citizens voted on a referendum to require an informal link of the Swiss Franc to gold. The
Swiss National Bank argued against the referendum on the ground that it would cause them to break
the peg of the Swiss Franc to the Euro.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
The people believed them and voted “no” on the referendum. But now the Swiss National Bank has
broken the peg anyway. The price of gold is spiking as a result, but the Swiss citizens have lost the
benefit of that because the referendum is now a dead letter. The Swiss National Bank lied to the
Swiss people about their intentions with regard to the peg.
The lesson of history is that citizens should own some gold, store it safely, and don’t believe
government and central bank lies. In fact, we could see more investors fleeing to the safety of
gold in the coming months as trust in central bankers wanes. [Emphasis mine]
Terakhir, seperti yang sudah diduga, bank sentral Eropa (ECB) pun memulai program Quantitative
Easing, sesuatu yang diakuinya dulu sama sekali tidak pernah dipertimbangkan sebagai sebuah
institusi supranasional.
Kini ECB menggelontorkan dana 60 milyar euro per bulan (atau $70 milyar) ke pasar finansial, yang
jumlahnya tersebut di luar dugaan.
Artinya total nilai program Quantitative Easing tersebut sekitar $1,26 milyar atau sekitar 10% dari total
GDP Zona Eropa dalam 1,5 tahun.
Yang tak kalah penting berikutnya adalah ketika emas kembali menjadi SAFE HAVEN untuk
melindungi nilai kekayaan seseorang dari depresiasi seketika nilai tukar, yang dijelaskan berikut ini
oleh John Rubino melalui Dollar Collapse blog:
This Is What Gold Does In A
Currency Crisis, Euro Edition
Yesterday the European Central Bank acknowledged that the currency it manages is being sucked
into a deflationary vortex. It responded in the usual way with, in effect, a massive devaluation. Euro
zone citizens have also responded predictably, by converting their unbacked, make-believe,
soon-to-be-worth-a-lot-less paper money into something tangible. They’re bidding gold up
dramatically.
So after falling hard in 2013 and treading water for most of 2014, the euro price of gold has gone
parabolic in the space of a couple of months. This sudden rather than gradual awakening is the
standard pattern for a currency crisis, mainly because it takes a long time for most people to figure
out their government is clueless and/or lying. But once they do figure it out, they act quickly.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Europe’s gold chart isn’t as dramatic as Russia’s (see it here) because Europe doesn’t depend on oil
exports and the euro, while dropping versus the dollar, isn’t yet in free-fall. But with another trillion
Euros due to hit the market in the coming year, and a series of currency union-threatening political
crises in the pipeline, the flight to safety could easily become a stampede.
Europe and Russia, meanwhile aren’t the only countries with incipient currency crises. Here’s
gold in Canadian dollars:
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Just to be clear, this isn’t a prediction about the immediate future, but an attempt to illustrate the
nature of gold. It behaves this way in crises because it is sound money which can’t be created in
infinite quantities by panicked central banks as can Euros, Canadian dollars and all other fiat
currencies. These charts illustrate what happens when this difference starts to matter.
Right now, the fear is country-specific. Europeans start to distrust their government and shift to
gold, without necessarily questioning foundational concepts like big, activist government and central
bank management of fiat currencies. They still assume that the euro would be fine if managed
correctly.
The next stage will begin when enough local currencies blow up to make people realize that
the problem isn’t with specific governments or national forms of money, but with the idea of
fiat currency itself. When that happens the global gold chart will look like Europe’s — but with more
zeros.”
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
By the way, although this story is currently focused on the euro zone, but the United States might
soon be in the same position.
Right now, the US dollar is considered to be a safe haven currency, mainly because people are
ignorant and believe the economic growth story of the US government.
But this charade may soon be over as the reality will set in, especially now that the debt-to-GDP ratio
of the USA is a triple digit percentage and the budget deficit will only increase.
Gold has always proven its value.
In Japan, more recently in Russia and last month in the euro zone, the purchasing power of the
citizens was safeguarded by their gold holdings.
Whenever a country is in distress, gold keeps its value.
What Do the Charts Say?
Pertanyaan besar bagi para investor emas saat ini adalah apakah sudah tidak ada low lagi di pasar
bearish emas saat ini…?
Hanya waktu yang bisa menjawab, namun rebound kuat di awal tahun ini meningkatkan dugaan saya
bahwa low harga emas sudah dilewati.
Untuk saat ini, selama masih bertahan di atas $1200, maka akan baik-baik saja bagi emas dan
penguatan harganya sejak November masih akan berlanjut.
Sementara emas akan menjadi super bullish jika berhasil naik lagi dan bertahan di atas $1300, level
moving average pentingnya, seperti terlihat pada grafik di bawah ini, milik Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
dari The Aden Forecast.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Jordan Roy Byrne, pemilik Trendsman Research dan anggota afiliasi the Market Technicians
Association (MTA), belm lama memberikan laporan terbarunya yang luar biasa mengenai emas,
beserta dengan 2 grafik yang layak Anda lihat:
Gold and Gold Stocks Consolidate at Resistance
Gold and gold mining shares rebounded strongly from the end of December through the first three
weeks of January. Over the past several weeks the sector has digested those gains while holding
above rising 50-day moving averages. The sector is nearing a bit of a decision point where either a
breakout could occur or further corrective activity.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Gold has snapped back after hitting trend line resistance at $1300/oz. Gold is consolidating below the
trend line and around its 400-day moving average ($1277/oz) which it has not wrestled with since
exactly two years ago. A confirmed break above the trend line and $1300/oz would potentially
put Gold on a path to $1400/oz. There is Fibonacci resistance and weekly resistance around
$1380-$1390/oz. If Gold can't breakout then look for support around $1240/oz. [Emphasis
mine]
The daily line chart of GDX (large gold miners) is below. GDX has consolidated below a confluence of
major resistance for several weeks and has held in well. The 400-day moving average has marked
each important top since 2012 while the trend line dates back almost as far. A confirmed break above
the trend line would bring targets of $27.50 (21% upside) and $30.00 (25% upside) into play. A break
above an RSI of 70 would signal sustained positive momentum and offer strong confirmation of the
breakout. GDX has strong support at $20.50.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Gold and gold miners in particular have digested recent gains in bullish fashion and could be
positioning for the next move higher. The miners turned up in December ahead of the metals and led
the rebound. In recent days the miners have inched higher while Gold and Silver have remained flat.
That leadership could be another positive leading indicator. At the same time, failure to breakout
immediately isn't necessarily bearish. Further consolidation while maintaining support puts the market
in better position for a sustainable breakout. Given the significance of the 400-day moving averages,
the next breakout could mark the start of a bull market in earnest.
Good Luck!”
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Jika Anda seorang trader jangka pendek, maka silahkan ikuti analisa singkat Bill Downey, editor di
www.GoldTrends.net, yang mungkin lebih cocok untuk Anda:
“Gold has pretty much reached the lower red line support at 1217-1225 with a 1228 low. Any NEW
LOW AFTER MONDAY [February 9, 2015] and a close below 1217 will favor gold reaching the lower
trend line under 1200 and an end to the rally from November.
With today’s plunge, gold has now taken on a choppy and overlapping scenario, which is overall
bearish. The blue cycle has a 70% chance of making this the low and moving higher into mid month.
However, that leaves 30% potential for a failure/inversion where price would move lower to the next
RED cycle and put the “rotation” of cycles back into a bearish scenario and favor the rally from
November is over.
Any bounce back to 1255-1272 should meet SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE. Today`s [February 6,
2015] close below 1272 will not be good news for gold`s technical. Neither will 1255.”
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Terakhir yang tak kalah penting, James Turk, pendiri dan sekaligus managing director
www.GoldMoney.com, kepada King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) pada 26 Januari 2015
menjelaskan alasan emas akan ulangi salah satu kenaikan terbesarnya sepanjang sejarah.
Di dalamnya juga diketengahkan grafik emas 5 dekade:
Is The Gold Price About To Repeat One
Of Its Greatest Upside Moves In History
The Big Picture
There are not too many people today who are old enough to remember the 1970’s bull market, let
alone participated in it. So to focus on the big picture I have prepared the following chart.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
From the late 1960s to January 1980 gold rose from $35 to $850 at its peak. The green uptrend line
marks gold’s ascent back then, but note that this major bull market had two distinct price moves,
marked by the two red ovals.
1970s Gold Rise And Parallels To The Present
The first peak occurred in 1974 at $200, after which there was a 2-1/2 year correction that brought
gold all the way back to $100 and its green uptrend line. Then from August 1976 gold began its
remarkable multi-year rise. Note how gold never really looked back. It kept climbing without any major
correction.
Gold’s ascent was driven by the Federal Reserve’s money printing. Of course the money printing
really started in the 1960s when President Johnson busted the federal budget with his reckless “guns
& butter” spending on the Vietnam War, while at the same time launching new welfare programs. I
think there is an interesting parallel to the present.
Central bank money printing has been well established for years, and the gold price has risen, just
like it did up until 1974. We have now had a correction, again repeating the experience of the 1970s.
History About To Repeat As Gold Price To Soar
So the question becomes: Is gold ready to launch higher, again repeating its experience from the
1970s? I believe it will repeat, and that the above chart provides an insightful roadmap into what we
can expect for gold. It looks like the second leg of gold’s 21st century bull market began from the low
price reached this past November.
The circumstances today are of course different from the 1970s. And as Mark Twain so cogently
observed, history doesn’t repeat – it rhymes. But the driving force behind the rise in the gold price this
century is exactly the same as the key factor that caused the gold price to rise in the 1970s — central
bank money printing.
What central banks are doing is turning government debt into currency, which even a cursory reading
of monetary history makes clear is a recipe for disaster and the primary reason the gold price will
soar.”
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
The Currency Wars Are A Race To The Bottom Where No Fiat Currency Wins
With the world's fiat currencies waging war and dislocations mounting, gold is no longer the 'David'
underdog fighting against the 'Goliath' central banks... but is - as Alan Greenspan opined - "the
premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it."
Therefore …
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Spot The Difference: Money Printing, Then And Now
As Tyler Durden of www.zerohedge.com pointed out two weeks ago, “It's different this time.. and just
remember Draghi's perspective - hyperinflation hasn't happened yet, so what's the harm?”
h/t @macroymercados
The global central bank balance sheet is even more concerning.
* * *
As to the hyperinflation question,
Draghi's answer is simple: we have now thrown the kitchen sink at the deflation problem and there
has been no inflation (he conveniently forgets to mention that the world is now caught in a vicious
spiral in which every single central bank is printing money just to export deflation to its peers, with
more and more printing necessary each year just to stay in one place). In other words, just because
hyperinflation hasn't materialized so far, it never will.
Or, as Bernanke would say: "Hyperinflation is contained."
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
As for Draghi's comment at the end, one can respond just as snidely: for the people who say printing
money will create growth, yes "when" please. And for those who say that money printing will lead to
economic improvement, "tell me, within what?"
As for Draghi's "statute of limitations" comment, he may be right, but one thing is also becoming
clearly obvious: as central banks are poised to monetize a record amount of debt this year, 7 years
into the "recovery", and as the amount of eligible collateral dwindles to a point where the functioning
of the entire market is becoming impaired (see the TBAC's complaints from the summer of 2013), the
moment of "hyperinflationary containment" is coming to an end.”
* * *
Nah, saya rasa kita lebih sabar menanti sampai bank-bank sentral benar-benar masuk lebih dalam
dan mencetak uang lebih banyak lagi…
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Kesimpulan
Seiring dengan meluasnya suku bunga rendah, maka prospek emas tahun 2015 akan lebih baik.
Jika uang kas tidak terpakai, mengapa tidak membeli emas untuk harapan keuntungan?
Ini sekaligus adalah asuransi yang sangat bermanfaat terhadap bencana finansial!
Begitu dolar AS melemah mengikuti kondisi dunia, maka emas akan semakin berkilau.
Dunia sudah memalingkan diri dari mata uang utama dunia lainnya, termasuk euro, yen dan pound
sterling Inggris.
Sementara dolar AS menguat karena mata uang lain melemah.
Meskipun saat ini investor swasta saat ini berduyun-duyun ke obligasi pemerintah AS yang
menawarkan imbal hasil kurang dari 2% dalam 10 than (sebelum pajak), akan tiba saatnya mereka
menyadari bahwa emas lah yang merupakan satu-satunya safe haven.
Lagi pula, emas tidak bisa dicetakkan…?
Akhirnya, mata uang akan melanjutkan pelemahannya, termask dolar AS, yang mungkin bisa
diperkirakan akan dimulai pada saat the Fed kembali memulai program QE-nya, yakni QE4.
Seperti tahun 70an, namun dalam skala yang jauh lebih besar, akan semakin banyak investor yang
melirik aset-aset lindung nilai, seperti emas (dan juga perak), karena daya beli mata uang kian
merosot.
Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!
Regards,
Nico Omer Jonckheere
VP Research and Analysis
PT. Valbury Asia Futures
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.