―To see what is right and not to do it is want of courage.‖ Confucius Strategic Management BU601A Class 11 Instructor: Steve Hummel, P. Eng. Stephen J. Hummel, P. Eng. 1 "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." Edmund Burke Agenda Strategic Management Final Exam Articles Moral Muteness of Managers The Ethical Mind Corruption in International Business Reputation Risk in the Global Art Market Review Stephen J. Hummel, P. Eng. 2 Final Exam Notes Strategic Management Use only information available in the case. Any information gathered from outside the case will not be marked. The exam is open book, you may bring in any paper documents or texts to help you to arrive at an answer. When answering the question above please ―convince me‖ with interlocked analysis. Failure to use numerical analysis in terms of evaluating firm performance will result in an exam failure. The only documents marked are the exam booklets. Please do not insert any other paper into the exam booklets as only the exam booklets will be marked. If you wish to use any analysis that you may have done in preparation for this exam you must copy it on to the exam booklets. The only electronic allowed in the exam is a calculator. No cell phones allowed unless you have made special arrangements with the professor. If your cell phone rings please stop writing and hand in your paper as your exam is over. Write legibly. If your work cannot be read it cannot be marked. Point form is permissible. If you are going to use point form please ensure that your analysis, conclusions, and recommendation flow in one continuous ―story‖. The time available for the exam is 3 hours. Please use your time wisely. 12/7/2010 Moral Muteness of Managers Strategic Management Moral standards are often passed off as ―street smarts‖ or ―ways to succeed‖ Managers seldom discuss the ethical problems that they encounter Nice model on pg. 75 Causes of moral muteness: Consequences of moral muteness: Threat to harmony Threat to efficiency Threat to image of power and effectiveness Moral amnesia Narrowed concept of morality Moral stress Neglect of abuses Decreased authority of moral standards How to make it work: Make it legitimate. i.e. ―academic freedom‖ Keep it focused, avoid distractions Treat this issue as a ―long run‖ item, it requires patience and reflection to make it work 12/7/2010 The Ethical Mind Strategic Management Ethical orientation begins at home The quality and behaviour of your peers impacts you Exposure to ―leaders of character‖ can change your view Threats to an ethical orientation: The quality of institutions Adaptation to changing environments Temptation of greed in the absence of control systems Unprincipled values of leading figures in firms Failure to educate ―Good work‖ 4 M’s, Mission, Models, Mirror test (individual), Mirror test (professional) 12/7/2010 Corruption in International Business Causal factors Strategic Management Types of corruption Interdependence of economic and political spheres Petty; typically low level bureaucrats, things like taxes, regulations, licensing, discretionary allocation of gov’t benefits Grand; need high level officials for things like procurement of military equipment, infrastructure projects, policy decisions Influence peddling; things like campaign contributions Real cost, makes everything more expensive What is your reaction to the mini-cases reviewed in the reading? 12/7/2010 Reputation Risk in the Global Art Market Strategic Management This case focuses on reputation risk, ethics, and good governance in international business. It allows the student to explore the impact of culture and perspective differences in an attempt to develop good governance models. What are the considerations for companies deciding between a course of action that is technically legal but raises ethical issues? What are the cultural differences in this case? How can firms operating internationally develop good governance models that are culturally flexible? How can companies who have received negative publicity repair their reputations in the international market? 12/7/2010 International Ethical Options Imperialist approach Strategic Management Relativist approach ―When in Rome, do as the Romans do‖ Universalist approach Home country ethical code Use global standards or rules of international law Relationship-building approach Establish trust through building realtionships 12/7/2010 Repairing Reputations Strategic Management Communicating immediately to stakeholders Acknowledging mistakes with genuine regret Committing to finding a solution and making it happen Demonstrating co-operation with relevant authorities Taking steps to ensure the same situation does not happen again Listening to your stakeholders 12/7/2010 Strategic Management Final Exam • Open book • A case • You are asked to solve a general problem • Ensure that your exam: • is legible (if I cannot read it I cannot mark it) • Neat (use white space and titles) How to spend your time Strategic Management 1 hour reading and collecting and organizing data 1 hour analysing the data and drawing conclusion 1 hour writing your exam Hour 1: Reading the Case Strategic Management Read it thoroughly Don’t rush. Take time and absorb the details The case is designed to be written in less than 3 hours, you have lots of time to read slowly, it is not a long case Make sure that you understand what you are being asked to do! After all, you want to answer the right question! Hour 1: Collecting Your Thoughts Strategic Management • Organize the data into models you have learned – – – – • Strategic components Diamond E Resource analysis Organization analysis Who are the key players and what are their skills, preferences, and power? Hints Strategic Management DO NOT get “target-lock” at this point, only develop “concerns and opportunities” Collect all the numbers you can Run the basic numbers so you understand relationships Street Smart Financial Analysis Strategic Management Balance Sheet – snapshot of a company’s financial position at a set point in time Income Statement – reveals how well the company performs financially over a set period of time Cash Flow Statement – reveals how much cash the company generated over a set period of time and how it used that cash What is happening over time? Hour 2: Analysis of the Material Strategic Management Performance and hence urgency for action Implications from data laid out including opportunities to pursue and constraints on action Assess the viability of the alternative solutions, including tradeoffs Select the appropriate alternative and flesh out what has to be done to put it in place, and what the results will be Performance Strategic Management Making $ or Not? Increasing or decreasing profits? Increasing or decreasing volume? Employee turnover? Customer retention? Quality? Urgency for Action Strategic Management Good Anticipatory Change Reactive Change Strategic Performance Crisis Change Poor Time Rules to Analyze By! Strategic Management Always look at how a company performs over time, use several statements over several time periods Always understand how much money the principles have ―in the game‖ Look at the security and ranking of the debt Understand if any rules have been broken! Is the company being financed by suppliers? Where does cost really come from? Analyze the income statement as a percentage of sales dollar! Cash is king! Is the company being a bank? How efficient is the company in managing money? Is there any ―noise― in the balance sheet or income statement? As volume increase what is happening to fixed costs? Strategic Management The Strategic Proposal As a Focusing Tool •Strategic goals establish the performance priorities and expectations that need to be evaluated in your environmental analysis •Product market focus sets up a bounded environment for the analysis of demand, competition, etc. •A proposal’s value proposition defines a very tangible benchmark for testing customer appeal and competitive differentiation •The nature and structure of a proposal’s core activities provide a basis for identifying the cost, control, and flexibility trade-offs that would be sensitive to external trends and developments •Again, think about this as it helps to focus your efforts! The Profit Model As a Focusing Tool •High fixed cost structures Strategic Management –Strong temptation to cut prices to capture volume, result is war! •High variable cost structures –Accuracy of assumptions for input costs are critical! •High break-even points –Carefully assess ability to achieve required market share position •High up-front investment –Market potential assessment and competitive assessment must be very carefully done • Inflexible investment structures –Carefully explore the probabilities of external forces that would lead to “worse case” scenarios Examples of Models & Tools vision, mission, values frozen preferences gap analysis Strategic Management MP O capabilities model leverage points str. change plan R resource gap analysis Collis & Montgomery tests S Porter framework BEAM model competitor profiles concept of CA profit/cost structure demand forecasts PEST life cycle E components of hard & soft goals goal structure concept of CA product/market matrix core activity diagrams criterion of consistency Day’s “5 Tests” of strategy growth trap emergent vs. deliberate Diamond – E Framework Strategic Management Management Preferences Organization Watch out!: Disruptive technologies and Global influences Strategy Environment Resources Key: Coherence and Consistency between the elements. Internal and External. Strategic Tension WANT Management Preferences Strategic Management Individual Strategic Tension CAN Resource Capabilities and Organization Firm NEED Environment Industry Remember, there is always tension! Diamond-E Keys Strategic Management High consistency among the component variables will lead to successful performance The rub is that a strategy must satisfy internal and external circumstances simultaneously Always start with the strategy-environment linkage Strategy-resources, management preferences, and organization examine required versus existing New strategies are developed as you move around the framework so you begin all over again (think about implications of engagement) Note notion of strategic tension, Want-Need-Can, this must be managed! Environment Analysis Strategic Management Identify the underlying industry economics and drivers of profitability Understand the industry value chain Assess the attractiveness of the industry for future investment Identify the key success factors, what it takes to win in the industry Make preliminary assessments of how industry analysis will impact strategic options Now move on through the rest of the Diamond-E Key Environment Models • Porter’s 5 Forces – “Who has the Power?” & Industry Attractiveness Strategic Management • Porter’s Value Chain – “Where does the Profit lie” & “Are we doing the right/wrong things? • Game Theory – “We want to be the leader!” • Prisoner’s Dilemma –”Indication of Game Theory!” & “Can we play the game successfully?” • PEST or STEEP (Environment) – “Forces have long lead time but can be surprised by events” • Scenario Planning – “Must use tool for PESTE to examine possible outcomes” • New Economy – “Must use for disruptive technologies!” • Global Industry – “Standard or specialized, what is best for us?” • Globalization Potential – “Are the forces in our favour?” • Stakeholder Analysis – “Can we balance their issues with what must be done?” • BEAM – “How adaptive is our strategy to these forces?” Identify & Evaluate The Current Strategy Strategic Management Bottom Line, is it good or bad or even exist at all? Where are the gaps? What will happen in the future if we continue with this strategy? Decide on the need, nature, and urgency of change! Strategic Management Forecast Performance • As you forecast performance at this point you are assuming that the business has the resources/capabilities to do as planned • The question that you want to answer is will the strategic proposal fulfill the goals • Make sure that you draw conclusions about the likelihood of achieving goals • Identify and note the primary risks • Careful about the assumptions with respect to both revenue growth and cost containment • Once you have a short list of acceptable proposals move to the next step in the Diamond-E Strategic Management Defining the Right Time Horizon • You should know this already from your size-up at the performance assessment stage! • Pace of external change • Flexibility of commitment • Implementation horizon Minimizing the Risks of Focus Strategic Management • Challenge is to avoid strategic myopia • Macro-environment scanning – Essentially an issue seeking process, what will kill you? • Identifying market intrusions – Look for newcomers and technology, remember, watch out for “the Hun out of the sun” • Recycling – Difficult to follow in real life, but do not recycle forever, this results in paralysis, remember TRADE-OFF’S! So What Does All This Mean For Case Analysis? The smart move is to always: Strategic Management Draw a strategy triangle, look for fit and a clear value proposition Draw a Diamond-E, use the environment tools that are applicable to the situation, populate the rest of it, examine gaps, recycle as required Do a Porter 5-Forces to understand who has the power in the industry & how attractive it is Don’t use every environmental analysis tool, just those that fit the situation and might give you meaningful information Once you have a strategy test it with Day’s 5 tests Make sure that you find a competitive advantage! Do financials that are in line with environment and gaps in the Diamond-E, always attempt to forecast future performance based upon your recommendation, remember, your job is to increase value for the firm! No Plan Survives Contact with the Environment! Strategic Management Strategy is ultimately a pattern of actions... Unrealized Strategy Realized Strategy Intended Strategy Emergent Strategy …based on day-to-day decisions and actions. Remember Law of Nemisis! So What Does This Mean? Strategic Management Develop a strategy has a reasonable degree of fault tolerance and/or adaptability to the environment! Is there a way out of ―Dodge City‖ if the worst happens? Creating a Change Plan Strategic Management Analysis of Starting Conditions Urgency Are you dealing with anticipatory, reactive, or crisis change? Organizational Readiness Who will be most affected by the proposed change? How ready are they? Personal Readiness How ready are you to lead the change process? Creating a Change Plan Top 3 things that I need to do now Strategic Management Who does it, by when, what resources, how measure Top 3 things that I need to do later Who does it, by when, what resources, how measure Strategic Management Assessing Potential Priority Targets Proactive Resistors Change Agents Bystanders Defensive Resistors Actively Opposed Change Agents in Waiting Neutral Commitment to Proposed Change Strongly Supportive Hour 3: Write up your report Strategic Management Recommendation: tight and to the point Support: justification of the problem and the solution (#’s whenever possible!) Plan of action (Gantt chart) Projected results Contingency plan Any exhibits you consider appropriate Cautions Strategic Management Managers take actions that deliver results Strategic issues always have some tension associated with them Do not try to fix all the problems in the business—focus on those related to the problem as you have defined it Summary Advice Strategic Management The goal is always to have a competitive advantage ―Stick to your knitting‖ Use common sense ―It is easier to slide on grease than gravel‖ Focus, focus, focus! Do not forget financials! Tell me risk (i.e. Best Case/Worse Case financials) Tell me how you are going to make it work Remember your job is to improve value…… An average strategy with brilliant execution trumps a brilliant strategy with poor execution every time! Seek an implementation plan that increases fit, the higher the order of fit, the better the chance of succeeding Pretend it is your money, what would you do? ―Follow the money‖ Convince me! Thanks for a Great Term! ―Management Strategic Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things.‖ Peter F. Drucker Stephen J. Hummel, P. Eng 41