This edition of the GRI Newsletter has been released to the
public. GRI subscribers received it over 6 months ago, along with
Part 2 The Chinese, ..and have been following updates on it ever
since....with the latest update on it in the GRI August Newsletter.
Page -1-
A Unique Perspective & Analysis of Global Events
A research & educational organization dedicated
to discovering and teaching truth, wherever it may
be found, in order to understand past, current and
future Geo-Political-Economic Events.
G-R-I Newsletter JANUARY 2, 2009 Volume 4
WWW.G-R-I.ORG
©copyright by Roger K. Young. All rights reserved.
For the private use of GRI subscribers only, not for public dissemination. May not be copied
.
RUSSIAN EXPANSIONISM
The Russian Endgame Strategy for
World Dominance
A Strategic Analysis of Global
Current and Future Events
Part 1
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -2-
Introduction:
There would be many that would immediately start to protest and argue with the title of
this article. They would argue that it was absolutely insane, or at best incompetent on
my behalf to even suggest that Russia had plans for world domination. I would argue
back, (if they would listen), that the factual evidence to support this thesis is undeniable.
As an introduction into this article, I would like to include some information from Anatoly
Golitsyn, who in his 1984 Book, NEW LIES FOR OLD, came out with the startling
statement that the leaders of Soviet Communism, mostly from the KGB, had designed
and implemented a long term, 40+ year plan for total world domination starting in the
late 1950's. He knew this because he had worked on the plan as a Major in the KGB
before he defected to the US. He outlined their plan, in detail, which was so fantastic
that it was considered too outrageous to consider as even remotely possible by most of
the Western Intelligence Community and government leadership.
This is from a National Book Review, Sept 7, 1984 (emphasis are my own):
ANATOLY GOLITSYN, now an American citizen, is a former major in the
counterintelligence service of the KGB, which he joined in 1946. He defected in
December 1961, at the age of 35, from his "cover" assignment as vice consul at the
Soviet Embassy in Helsinki. He lived in England until August 1963, when he left for the
United States. Here Anatoly Golitsyn worked for the CIA under the vigorous
sponsorship of James Angleton, for twenty years head of counterintelligence until he
was fired in December 1974 by the then CIA Director William Colby.
(Roger’s note: There is strong evidence that William Colby, who became head of
the CIA, was in actuality a Russian Spy. This would be consistent with
Golitsyns’ accusations that the CIA was riddled with Russian Spies from top to
bottom. Former CIA director Richard Helms, James Angleton and others were
convinced he was a spy, and went public with their assertions (leaking it to the
press) when Colby was actually appointed as the CIA director...and when they
could get no investigations started within the intelligence community. As Richard
Helms told his biographer, Colby’s acts “as Director of Central Intelligence were
entirely consistent with those of a man who was a Russian agent.” As the
investigation started to heat up, Colby resigned as director and then died
mysteriously in a canoe accident. It was Colby who helped dismantle the CIA,
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -3firing most of the long time field agents, cutting the CIA effectively in half, and
instituting rules whereby information was highly compartmentalized and not
shared with other agencies...which allowed things like 9/11 to occur.)
Golitsyn began working on this book almost from the moment of his defection. (The
published version contains only half of his 1,200-page manuscript.) The book opens
with an extraordinary introduction signed by four former Senior U.S. and British
intelligence officers. Three of the men have known the author and his views for 12
years or more. All four "have the highest regard for his personal and professional
integrity." (He is an Honorary Commander of the Order of the British Empire.) They
write in the introduction: “Despite the rejection of his views by many of our former
colleagues, we continue to believe that the contents of this book are of the greatest
importance and relevance to a proper understanding of contemporary events . . . We
commend the book for the most serious study by all who are interested in relations
between the Communist and non-Communist worlds.”
Golitsyn's theme is that, beginning with the power struggle that followed Stalin's death
in 1953, "the West has misunderstood the nature of changes in the Communist world
and has been misled and outmaneuvered by Communist guile." From 1958 or so
onward, the combined intelligence and security resources of the entire Communist bloc
were committed by Communist governments to playing an influential part in the
implementation of the new long-range bloc policy. This has entailed providing Western
intelligence with carefully selected "secret" information from inside the Communist
world.
In other words, for more than a quarter-century the West has been victimized by
disinformational events, ranging from false KGB defectors to the Sino-Soviet split, from
KGB-controlled dissidents to Rumanian "independence," the Soviet-Yugoslav split after
1958, Soviet "liberalization," the Soviet-Albanian split, the 1968 "Prague Spring," power
struggles in the Soviet, Chinese, and other Communist parties, and Eurocommunism.
These "case history" happenings, says Golitsyn, are nothing more than beautifully
planned and internationally coordinated KGB disinformation scenarios intended to lull
the West into thinking that the Soviet Union is tossing about in a stormy ocean of
opposition, both internal and external. In fact, the Communist movement remains a
monolith despite any alleged evidence to the contrary. As Golitsyn puts it: "The feigned
disunity of the Communist world promotes real disunity in the non-Communist world."
While these scenarios were successfully hoodwinking Western statesmen and public
opinion into thinking that time was on the side of the non-Communist world, the USSR
and its allies were building up and projecting their military and political power throughout
the world with insignificant opposition from the West. How does one deal with this
epistemological topsy-turvy?
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -4Most startling is Golitsyn's prediction that as part of the Communist bloc's strategy for
victory the following events will soon occur:
* a public Soviet-Chinese reconciliation;
* a "spectacular and impressive" liberalization in the Communist bloc with
amnesty for dissidents, who would be invited to return;
* the freeing of Sakharov,
* more trade-union independence,
*adoption of constitutional amendments guaranteeing fulfillment of the Helsinki
agreements,
* reduction in the role of Communist parties;
*a revival of controlled "democratization" on the Czech pattern for Eastern
Europe, and even the return of Dubcek to power;
*demolition of the Berlin Wall--all of them in reality "cosmetic steps," says
Golitsyn, because they have been handed down from on high.”
* ‘Restructuring’ political and military blocs—NATO and the W arsaw
Pact—and the creation of a single ‘Europe from the Atlantic to the
Urals’ incorporating a reunited, neutral Germany.’
So ends the quotes from the National Book review. Now, I would like to include some
actual excerpts from the book. New Lies For Old:
‘It was in 1958 that the Communist leaders recognized, after the Hungarian and
Polish revolts, that the Stalinist practice of mass repression had severely
damaged the system and that radical measures were necessary to restore it. It
was then that they decided to transform the Stalinist system into a more
attractive form of ‘Communist democracy’.
‘It was in 1958 that the Communist leaders accepted that their economic system
was ineffective and lagging behind the West in productivity. It was then that they
decided that it would have to be revived through the introduction of market
incentives. It was then that the Communist leaders realized that Communism
could not be spread abroad against a background of fear and mass repression
and that world Communist victory could only be achieved by transforming
the Soviet and other Communist regimes into a form more attractive to the
West.’
‘It was during 1958-1960 that the Communist leaders envisaged the
convergence of restructured and transformed capitalist systems LEADING
ULTIMATELY TO ONE SYSTEM OF WORLD GOVERNMENT.
Other goals included:
*‘Splitting the United States, W estern Europe and Japan. Dissolution
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -5of NATO and the US-Japan security pact, and the withdrawal of US
troops from W estern Europe and Japan.’
*‘The introduction and promotion of a new Soviet model with a mixed
economy and a human face in Latin America, Africa and Asia
through a joint campaign by the pseudo-social democratic regimes of
the USSR and Eastern Europe and the genuine social democrats of
W estern Europe led by the Socialist International.’
* ‘To neutralize the influence of the anti-Communist political right in
the American political parties and to create favourable
conditions for a victory of the radical left in the 1992
US presidential elections
(Roger’s Note: Bill Clinton was elected president in 1992.)
*To ‘restructure’ the American military, political, economic and social
status quo to accommodate greater convergence between the Soviet
and American systems and the eventual creation of a single
World Government.’
*‘The paramount global objective of the strategy of ‘perestroika’ is to
weaken and neutralize anti-Communist ideology and the influence of
anti-Communists in political life in the United States, W estern Europe
and elsewhere—presenting them as anachronistic survivors of the
Cold W ar, reactionaries and obstacles to ‘restructuring’ and peace.
Anyone who warns about Moscow’s true objectives is automatically
branded a ‘Cold W arrior’, even by people who have doubts about
Moscow’s motives.’
As the concluding ‘chapter’ of this Soviet Plan towards total W orld Conquest,
Golitsyn wrote:
“In the new worldwide Communist federation;
* the present different brands of Communism would disappear, to be
replaced by a uniform, rigorous brand of Leninism. The process
would be painful.
* Concessions made in the name of economic and political reform
would be withdrawn.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -6*Religious and intellectual dissent would be suppressed.
* Nationalism and all other forms of genuine oppositions would be
crushed.
* Those who had taken advantage of détente to establish friendly
W estern contacts would be rebuked or persecuted like those Soviet
officers who worked with the Allies during the Second W orld W ar. In
new Communist states—for example, in France, Italy, and the Third
W orld—the “alienated classes” would be reeducated.
* Show trials of “imperialist agents” would be staged. Action would be
taken against nationalist and social democratic leaders, party
activists, former civil servants, officers, and priests.
* The last vestiges of private enterprise and ownership would be
obliterated.
* Nationalization of industry, finance, and agriculture would be
completed. In fact, all the totalitarian features familiar from the early
stages of the Soviet revolution and the postwar Stalinist years in
Eastern Europe might be expected to reappear, especially in those
countries newly won for Communism.
* Unchallenged and unchallengeable, a true
Communist monolith would dominate the world.”
W ith foregoing in mind, let us carefully consider that of the 149 listed future
events that Golitsyn outlined in 1984, 98% have taken place. Currently,
according to Golitsyn we are in the final stages of the Russian plan for world
dominance. Therefore, the next part will be to discuss the strategic events that
have taken place over the last couple of years, including the last few months, that
indicate the intentions of this Russian Expansionism plan.
THINGS TO REMEMBER ABOUT RUSSIAN MOVES:
As we proceed, it is important to remember that Russians as a people, and
especially Russian Leadership & military, do not do anything without a plan.
They are grandmaster chess players with each step being carefully planned and
laid out to achieve final checkmate.
They often have plans within plans and are very good at setting up traps that are
unseen…and then carefully sprung on their opponents. Additionally, they are
patient players…they will take however long it needs to setup the final endgame
for checkmate. (They started this particular game some 40+ yrs ago)
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -7If Russia is truly preparing to initiate a global world war for world dominance,
then we should see specific “moves” and preparations that indicate this. From
observing these “moves” we might get an indication of timing...as in; How soon
before the big trigger is “pulled” starting World War III. In order to ascertain or
understand the importance of what we might see, it would be important for us to
understand what types of war preparation “moves” we are actually looking for?
W hat follows is a brief list of what I call the:
10 WAYS TO WIN A WAR
# PREPARATION BEFORE the war/battle is often THE KEY to winning the
war/battle.
# DEFEAT OR WEAKEN YOUR ENEMY BEFORE YOU ENGAGE THEM
MILITARILY. (critical objectives can sometimes be won without a fight.)
# MISDIRECTION, MISINFORMATION & DECEPTION can win a battle/war.
(example D-Day & Georgia)
# SURPRISE is a very powerful weapon.
# DESTROY YOUR ENEMIES COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM. (make them
blind, deaf and dumb)
# CONTROL OF VITAL SUPPLIES & SUPPLY LINES (chokepoints) is
essential. (Securing yours…and controlling/destroying your enemies.)
# IF POSSIBLE, DEPLOY SUPERIOR TECHNOLOGY. A single Superior
Weapon can win the entire war/battle. (a bomb example.)
# ELIMINATE YOUR ENEMIES POTENTIAL ALLIES …while securing your
own.
# Never underestimate the power of a 5 th Column behind enemy lines.
(especially agents & spies among enemy forces)
# ATTACK WITH OVERWHELMING FORCE. Better yet…attack where
there is no enemy force to defend. (convince your enemy to move his army
as far away as possible from where you plan to attack)
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -8# REMEMBER The best way to win a war is to win/achieve your
objective… without actually having to fight a war. (Intimidate, Bluff, Trick,
Assassinate, Coup, Economic means, Seduce/Convert to an Ally, etc.)
IN SUMMARY …If you must fight…Attack with overwhelming force when
your enemy least expects it, where/when it is weakest, when/where it
cannot get help from allies or receive critical supplies, and while it cannot
communicate (blind-deaf-dumb).
To emphasize a critical point in modern warfare... IN CURRENT MODERN
WARFARE, OIL IS THE MOST CRITICAL SUPPLY OF ALL SUPPLIES.
W ithout it, no troops move, no planes fly, no tanks run, no supplies are delivered,
etc. In essence, without an adequate supply of oil (gasoline/diesel/jet fuel)…a
modern army CANNOT even fight a war, let alone win one. This brings up the
Golden Rule...HE W HO HAS THE GOLD...RULES, and the (black) gold of this
world currently is OIL. If you want to rule the world…then you must control the
energy of the world which is now concentrated in oil.
If controlling oil means that you can win wars, control production/manufacturing,
and even control food production and distribution, then that is where the most
critical preparation for a global war would be...that of securing your
supplies of oil...and setting up the situation to deny your enemy access to
it.
W ith that in mind, let us look at the current top 10 oil production/exporting
countries.
Top Ten Oil Exporting Countries
Saudi Arabia (8.73 million barrels per day) …26.12%
Russia(6.67) …19.96%
Norway (2.91)…8.71%
Iran (2.55)…7.63%
Venezuela (2.36)…7.06%
United Arab Emirates (2.33)…6.97%
Kuwait (2.20)…6.58%
Nigeria (2.19)…6.55%
Mexico (1.80)…5.39%
Algeria (1.68)…5.03%
Legend: Red=Anti-US/Pro-Russia, Orange=Moderate Arab Countries,
Blue=US Friendly, Black=Open to highest bidder.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -9Please note in the above listing that there are only two countries, comprising only 14%
of the worlds top ten production that are overtly friendly to the United States. (Though
there would be some who would argue that Mexico is really not that friendly.) If the
moderate Arab nations were somehow convinced to join in the declared Jihad against
Israel and the U.S. being pushed by radical Islam/Iran, then Russia and its declared
allies would control over 79% of the top oil production in the world. Not good news
strategically.
On the other side of the coin, the following is a listing of the top 10 oil importing
countries:
Top Ten Oil Importing Countries (All potential allies except China)
United States (11.8 million barrels per day)
Japan (5.3)
China (2.9)
Germany (2.5)
South Korea (2.1)
France (2.0)
Italy (1.7)
Spain (1.6)
India (1.5)
Taiwan (1.0)
Please note that all of them are current allies of the United States, except China.
Nice to have...except they, just like the U.S., are all dependent upon foreign oil.
Again, not good strategically in case of a global war.
Some other points to consider:
* Russia has extensively developed its oil/natural gas reserves and production
over the last 20 years.
*Russia has developed a lot of Oil production/export “friends” over the last 10
years.
Compare this with the following:
*The U.S. has curtailed almost all development of its extensive oil/natural gas
reserves and production over the last 20 years.
*US has a lot of “Friends” that are Oil import dependent. Additionally, during
the last 10 years, it has lost oil production/export “friends.” (W ith notable
exception of Iraq, which came by attack and invasion.)
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -10But, in Europe the situation is even worse. W hile the U.S. has chosen not to
develop its oil and gas reserves, Europe has no such reserves at all. Consider
the following:
*In the last ten years Europe’s reliance on Russian crude exports has grown
from around 12 percent of total crude imports to around 31 percent in 2008.
(45% from Middle East, 23% from Norway)
*EU oil imports are set to grow by an additional 29% by 2012 with Russia
imports growing to 55% or more of the total.
*Europe now depends upon Russia for 44% of its natural gas (30% Algeria,
25% Norway);
*By 2030, over 60% of EU gas imports are expected to come from Russia
with overall external dependency expected to reach 80%.
Bottom line is simple; Europe depends heavily upon Russian Oil and Gas
and this dependency is increasing. Another point is that while Oil can be
imported via ship if needed, natural gas cannot. It must be delivered via
pipeline.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -11In the map below you can see a simplified map of the major oil reserves
that feed Europe.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -12In this map, (2007) you can see the major Russian Controlled pipelines that
feed Europe. (Also one Russian controlled pipeline that feeds Western
China.) The natural gas pipelines follow the same general flow and come
from the same general areas.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -13-
This map also shows the European Controlled pipelines. (In green). Please
note that there are two major groups of pipelines...the group coming from
Norway feeding Western Europe, and the Group coming from the Caspian
Sea area feeding Turkey, & Southern Europe. Notice that all of the Southern
Europe EU pipeline is fed from linked sources coming from the Caspian
Sea area.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -14There is one more major pipeline. It is a US/BP joint pipeline and it is in
purple. (See purple arrow.) Actually this is not one but three pipelines, the
largest in the world and one of the most expensive that was recently
completed. Over 1% of the entire oil in the world flows through these 3
pipelines that the U.S. built. The Oil originates from the large oil fields of
Azerberjain and Turkmenistan on the southern edge of the Caspian Sea.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -15Another important point is that a major leg of this pipeline crosses over
Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea (just north of the Syrian border), and
supplies 70% of the oil to Israel. Earlier this year Israel and Turkey were in
discussions to lay undersea pipe directly from the port straight to Israel.
However, in the last 90 days, that has changed.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -16-
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED (& WHY) IN
CHECHNYA AND MORE RECENTLY IN
GEORGIA?
To understand how and why this changed, we need to look at the recent
Russian invasion of Georgia. The map below shows the approximate
locations of the pipelines as they cross through the country of Georgia.
Georgia for the past several years has been pro-US, and pro-Israel. That is
why they allowed the US to build the pipeline across their country.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -17If you remember, the official excuse that the Russians gave for the invasion,
was to help the two areas (Ossetia in the South and Abkhazia in the North,
outlined in yellow) to become independent countries...to break away from Georgia.
We now know that Russia planned it at least 6 months (or more) in advance,
infiltrated Russian agents into the areas and helped to foment the planned
insurrection. Russia had approximately 100,000 troops on the border, with tanks,
etc. ready to invade when “invited” to help the breakaway areas. It caught everyone
by complete surprise, including the small Georgian army that was quickly overrun
in just a couple of days. Russia repeatedly indicated that all they were and would do
was to secure the two breakaway areas from Georgian “agression.”
However, Russia went past the borders of these areas (Russia and these two
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -18breakaway areas and Armenia are in solid yellow) to occupy the areas within the
dotted lines. Notice how coincidentally, these now extended areas, still currently
occupied by Russian Combat Troops, control the Baku pipeline. Also, the southern
Pipeline is only 12 miles from the Russian Troops. Also note, the country of Armenia to
the South is a Russian ally. To the North of Georgia, is Southern Russia...including a
very small country called Chechnya.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -19We have heard a lot about the Chechyan war of independence with Russia.
Essentially, when Russia declared the breakup of the Soviet Union, Chechnya
voted to do so. However, Russia said...NO...and then invaded Chechnya, and
according to some reports wiped out as much as 50% of the population. Why
would Russia care about such a tiny country of no consequence? The
answer is, Chechnya has some major oil refineries near Grozny, some small
oil fields, and the oil pipeline that feeds Southern Russia runs through
Chechnya. While Russia let much larger countries become independent...it
jumped on Chechnya without mercy. WHY? It is because of the oil. See the
map below:
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -20With the invasion of Georgia, Russia now has a firm grip on the only pipeline
it did not control to Easter/Southern Europe, as well as the major supply to
Israel. However, with its invasion...there were three other major benefits that
have occurred. The oil that flows through these pipelines originates from
Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Both of these countries were pro-US, which is
why they assisted in building the pipelines with US funding.
ADDITIONAL GEORGIAN INVASION BENEFIT 1:
Azerbaijan. (Baku oil region) has just switched from being a pro-US
government…to pro-Russia. It has also switched a large portion of its oil
supplies from the US/EU pipeline…to the Chechnyan/Russian pipeline.
ADDITIONAL GEORGIAN INVASION BENEFIT 2:
Turkmenistan has also followed the same direction. (Switched from pro-US to
pro-Russia and started exporting more oil/gas to Southern Russia)
ADDITIONAL GEORGIAN INVASION BENEFIT 3:
Israel had been helping Georgia, and as a benefit had been allowed to use a
Georgian airfield for Israeli military aircraft. We now know that Israel had been
planning to use the airfield as a refueling site for a planned attack on the Iranian
nuclear facilities. Russian military forces captured that base, and still hold it.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -21-
THE GEORGIAN INVASION, A BRILLIANT STRATEGIC MOVE,
WONDERFULLY PLANNED AND EXECUTED
And so, in one astute move, with the acquisition of Ossetia(Georgia), and the
subsequent capitulation of Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan... Russia now controls
the largest and most expensive oil pipeline(s) in the world that the US built.
(And they didn’t even have the courtesy to say thanks!!) All of this happened
while the United States, Europe and the world stood by in amazement. No wonder
the Chinese are declaring the days of the U.S. as a Super Power are over and
Russia has taken its place.
In the map below, with the acquisition of these new areas, plus Iran (in yellow and
light blue) you can see that RUSSIA AND ITS ALLIES NOW, EITHER CONTROL
THE PRODUCTION… OR CAN EASILY STOP THE SHIPMENT… OF 80% OF
THE WORLDS OIL PRODUCTION.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -22CONTROLLING THE MOST CRITICAL “HAVE OR DIE” SUPPLY IN MODERN
WARFARE:
In the map below you can see how easily it would be for Russia and its ally Iran, to
shut off 75% of the oil and 80% of the gas supply to Europe. There are now only five
“chokepoints” that would need to be closed...while at the same time most of this oil
and gas would be available to Russia.
If the Moderate Arab Nations join the Anti-American, Anti-Israel, pro-Russian,
“cabal,” they would control almost 90% of the worlds oil production. (All
except Norway, Canada, US, Mexico).
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -23-
WHAT IS POSSIBLY THE NEXT RUSSIAN MOVE?
W ith Russia on an “endgame” plan to prepare for a world war and world domination,
what possibly could be its next target or move? There are several areas that it could
possibly strike:
*
*
*
*
*
ISRAEL-IRAN
LEBANON-SYRIA-HAMAS-HEZBOLLA
UKRAINE
POLAND
PAKISTAN/INDIA/AFGHANISTAN
In this article we will concentrate on the first two areas ...Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Syria,
Hamas, Hezbolla, that are currently undergoing some serious buildups and are
looking to explode.
We will first start with the little country of Lebanon which sits on the North border of
Israel.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -24Lebanon is not a very large country, approximately 48 miles wide and 123 miles long
and has almost 4 million people. It is bordered by Israel on the South, and Syria to
the East and North. Damascus, the capital of Syria is only about 60 miles from
Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. The second largest city is Tripoli in the north.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -25In the last six months, immediately following the Georgian invasion & occupation,
Syria signed a military cooperation agreement with Russia. (Syria had been proRussian prior to this.) It allowed Russia to build a new Naval base on the
Mediterranean sea coast in a little place called Tartus. The first Med base for
Russia...ever. Also, Russia announced it was installing the new SS-24 tactical
nuclear missile system there. (W hich has a purported range of 200 miles). This was
in exchange for shipping to Syria weapons including tanks, artillery and the new S300 enhanced multiple anti-missile, anti-air missile system. The enhanced system
now allows Syria (& Russia) to “see” all aircraft movements over most of Israel.
These weapons and missile systems are being delivered currently in a heavy arms
buildup.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -26There is an internal struggle, including a simmering civil war that has been going on
in Lebanon for the past several years. Lebanon has been pro-US because of a
majority of its people are Christians with a minority of Muslim. However this has
been changing...primarily because of the work of the Hezbolla (or Hizbollah), a
radical Islamic terrorist group funded, armed and trained primarily by Iran & Syria.
Over the last few years, most of the Christian leadership has been assassinated.
Additionally, Hezbollah has grown so large and powerful that they have challenged
the Christian leadership. This erupted into running gun battles between the
government forces and the Hezbolla last year (in essence a small civil war) ...in the
which the Hezbollah came out on top. There is a truce of sorts, but every week the
government forces get smaller while the Hezbolla are reinforced by new troops from
Itan and Syria. In the map below you can get an idea of how strong and well
positioned the Hezbolla and the pro-Syrian militias are.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -27Recently, within the last 60 days, heavily equipped Syrian troops have deployed all
along the Lebanon border. Complete with tanks, artillery and other heavy Russian
weapons that are being delivered and stockpiled daily. They are all poised to
overrun Lebanon. The question is W HY? In essence pro-Syrian troops already
control most of Lebanon. The answer is that either they are getting ready to invade
Lebanon to finally overthrow the current pro-US Christian government and turn it into
a radical Islamic state under the control of Iran & Syria....OR, they are prepared to
pass through Lebanon and invade into Israel....OR, both. As another bad sign,
currently, tens of thousands of Lebanese (mostly Christians) are fleeing Lebanon
seeking asylum in any country that will take them. They understand that a war is
coming, soon, and they don’t want to be in the middle of it...again.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -28Israel is not a very large country, with a population of only 7 million. 70% of the
population is concentrated along the coast of Israel. It has 3 major cities, Jerusalem,
Tel Aviv, and Haifa. Because of recent concessions, in what many consider idiotic
moves to give its mortal enemies vital lands within Israel (such as recently Gaza &
parts of the West Bank)...Israel is quite vulnerable to attack. (An analogy would be
like giving Iran New Jersey, forcibly moving US citizens out and Iranian militias in,
and then standing back and complaining as the Iranians shell New York with rockets
and mortars.) GAZA is under HAMAS control and is currently shelling Southern
Israel daily. Israel is indicating that it will do something soon about the situation
soon.
The WEST BANK is where the majority of displaced Palestinians live under self
autonomy under the PLO. Many work and travel into Israel and Israel has many
settlements located there, with over 275,000 Israeli settlers. It is relatively semipeaceful at this time.
Israel controls the disputed territory of the GOLAN HEIGHTS which it captured in the
1967 war. There
is an ongoing
Syrian demand
for the land to
be returned,
and the UN as
recently as
2006 adopted a
resolution
calling upon
Israel to end its
occupation of
the Golan and
declaring all the
legislative and
administrative
measures taken
by Israel in the
Golan null and
void.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -29Either way, the end result is that things are shaping up in the Middle East for a major
attack on Israel with the Hezbolla taking the lead in the North from Lebanon, and
Hamas taking the lead in the South from Gaza. Both groups are funded, supplied,
trained by Iran and even include Iranian troops. W hat Iran and its surrogates hope
to accomplish is to provoke Israel into attacking them. Hopefully, such an attack and
war will be able to be turned into a major anti-Israel public relations program to such
a degree that the Moderate Arab countries will be forced or enticed to join the Jihad
against Israel. In other words...they are trying to start a major Middle East war
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -30-
GRI Analysis
Syria, backed by heavy Russian weapons/Armor are poised to overrun
Lebanon. But there is really no need…as ½ or more of Lebanon’s army is
Hezbolla…supportive of Syria. (In last showdown…anti-Syrian pro-Christian
Lebanon government was put into place. Since that time, Syria has pretty
much had free reign to bring in weapons, troops, etc.)
* Christians and moderates are currently fleeing Lebanon by the
thousands….again, a sure sign that war is coming.
* Whether or not Syria overruns Lebanon first, overthrowing the current
government is inconsequential. The end goal is to prepare to mount
a sustained conflict with Israel.
* Plus, we cannot forget that Syria was the recipient of most of the Iraqi
Weapons of Mass Destruction, primarily extremely deadly biological
agents, developed by Saddam Hussein.
Israel has a do or die situation. (It is more like a choice between very bad and
even worse). They need to attack the nuclear facilities of Iran…very soon,
probably before Obama takes office.
Israel has been heavily upgrading its air force and armor, holding drills, etc. It
is preparing for the INEVITABLE war.
It appears that Russia is prepping Syria and Iran for this attack.
*First, the attack on Georgia delayed the Israeli attack on Iran.
*It also put Russia in control of Israel’s major source of oil.
*Russia’s New top of the line S-300 anti missile, anti-air systems have been
delivered and are probably operational in Iran and Syria and in Tartus or will
be shortly.
*Russian heavy weapons and armor are being stockpiled in Tartus (Syria) by
the boatloads.
*In the last 45 days…Syria is massing troops on the Lebanon…AND Golan
Heights border.
*Hamas-Israel truce ended on Thursday Dec 18. Hamas refuses to
renegotiate an extension.
*Hamas has been bringing in troops, weapons, rockets into Gaza and has
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -31increased rocket and mortar barrages against Israel.
EXPECTATIONS:
Currently, Iran is doing everything it can to provoke Israel into attacking. IRAN
WANTS ISRAEL TO ATTACK IT, in the hopes that it then can do THREE things:
1. Severely hurt the attacking Israeli force…showing the other Arab
nations that the vaunted Israeli air force can be defeated.
2. It gives Iran/Syria an excuse to retaliate. Iran will shut down the Strait
of Hormuz…no oil to the Western world. This raises the price of oil back
to $100-$200+. (Great for Russia/Iran/Venezuela…VERY BAD for
US/ISRAEL/EUROPE).
3. MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL…IRAN wants this attack to provoke the
Arabs in the world, especially the moderate Arab countries, into joining
them for a global Jihad against Israel and the U.S. (This is part of the
radical 12th Imam Religious belief of the Islamic Messiah coming during
global war).
Iran/Syria/Hamas/Hezbolla is preparing to lead in this war with a massive
retaliation attack…into Israel through Lebanon, The Golan Heights, and Gaza.
They want massive military and civilian casualties on their side…in order to
spur outrage. They will make sure it gets top global press. (even if they have
to manufacture it.) THE KEY TO THEIR VICTORY...IS TO GET ENOUGH
NEGATIVE PUBLIC RELATIONS (such as: Israeli’s massacre women and
children, or a nuclear weapon goes off, or some other WMD) AGAINST ISRAEL
TO CAUSE OUTRAGE AMONG MODERATE ARABS...ENOUGH THAT THEY
ALL JOIN IN A JIHAD AGAINST ISRAEL.
WHEN?
Soon. Anytime between now and this Summer. Likely within the next 30 days.
Israel needs to do something before Obama takes over January 20th, (because
after that it become very difficult)
The subsequent ARAB retaliation might be done in stages over a period of a
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -32few to several months. (They are trying desperately to do more preparations…
including obtaining more nuclear weapons to back-up/support their Jihad. Iran
now probably has 1 nuclear weapon. They want/need several for the war.)
THE CURRENT ISRAELI PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE AGAINST GAZA:
* Israel has decided to do a surprise pre-emptive strike against its
enemies rather than wait for them to finish their preparations for war. It
choose Hamas in Gaza, as they are the weakest militarily, and do not
have good supply routes. ( This is because Egypt does not want a war
with Israel and is actually helping Israel by hindering major weapons
supplies into Gaza.)
* Israel made a surprise attack and caught Hamas completely off guard
and with a massive attack over several days has seriously damaged the
leadership and strength of Hamas.
* So far, the radical militant Islamic groups have not been able to turn it
into a massive Public Relations event against Israel. Though they are
trying desperately to publicly cry for a Jihad against Israel...and are
raising troops and monies for it, so far....it is not working as well as was
hoped. However, this could change at a moments notice. REMEMBER
THIS IS PRIMARILY A PUBLIC RELATIONS WAR FOR THE RADICAL
ISLAMIC GROUPS. Israel wants it to be over quickly, no more than two
weeks. The longer the war takes, the longer they have to work their PR
magic to fan the flames for an Islamic Jihad.
* This pre-emptive attack by Israel has thrown the Iran/Syrian/Russian
timetable into question. With a massive ground attack looming as of
this writing, Israel has a chance to almost completely eliminate a major
enemy force in the South. This would allow it to concentrate its future
efforts to the North vs Hezbolla and Syria. What will be the ultimate end
result?
- It could just delay the planned attack for a few months.
- It could delay the Iranian/Syrian attack for a year.
- Something could happen that ignites the wrath and anger of the
Islamic world, and Syria, Iran, and the moderate Arab nations
jump into the conflict and it becomes a huge Middle East War.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -33-
ÈÈÈÈÈÈ
THE SUMMER OF HELL 2009
...AND BEYOND
GRI PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT 3-24 MONTHS
A personal note from Roger K. Young, Senior Editor/GRI founder:
Part of my job with GRI is to gather all of the information that I can, sort through it,
understand it, make sense of it and how it fits into the scheme of things, and then put it out
in such a way that others can understand the point. I try to see trends. I do a lot of number
crunching and chart making to map out trends. I shoot for a 90% accuracy in these trend
calculations. So far, I have a better than 90% prediction rating...but I wish I was dead
wrong on what I predict is coming in the near future, but I am afraid that I am not. The
bottom line to all of what is coming is to prepare yourself and your family and as much as
possible encourage your friends and neighbors as well: Massive unemployment...food
shortages...energy shortages...moral and social decay and collapse.
Let me summarize the 5 PHASES OF TURMOIL IN THE UNITED STATES/NORTH
AMERICA that I see coming. These phases will also occur to some degree in many
other countries throughout the world as well. I do not know the timing, or the length
of each of these phases...except for probably the first one. The data on this first
phase is very clear...it will start in the Spring and really hit hard during the summer in
many places. It could last from 6 months to 18 months before transitioning into the
next phase.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -341. A PERIOD OF ECONOMIC CHAOS (Summer of Hell 2009)
* Massive Rising Unemployment occurs as we move from DEFLATION to
HYPERINFLATION. Hyperinflation begins to take off catching most people
by surprise. Prices will soar in different areas. The price of most
commodities will double, triple and then increase even more by the end of the
year. This sets up a COMPLETE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE and CHANGE
TO A NEW CURRENCY down the road. W hen it does occur, this will bring
about widespread violence throughout the country, especially in the large
cities. How long this phase will last is uncertain...at least 8 months starting in
the late Spring/Summer of 2009, perhaps a couple of years. (See below for
more details.)
2. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
* It will be that things will improve, or at least appear to improve. In other
words...people will believe that the country has hit rock bottom and is starting
to climb out of the hole. As part of this, New Massive Governmental W elfare
programs will be announced and instituted. This period of “hope” that the
worst is over lasts for only a few months.
3. SOCIAL CHAOS/COLLAPSE
* W hen the slight improvement fails to materialize into anything substantial,
and when things actually get worse, social chaos begins (again) and quickly
increases. The fabric of society begins to unravel.. more violence, more riots,
more civil unrest starting in the major cities and then spreading. This is
helped along with food shortages, plagues, roving electrical outages,
unemployment, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters. The government will
respond with martial laws, bringing in foreign troops to help in the situation,
and even round up “problem people” and put them into secure camps, but
things unravel very quickly. A famine begins in earnest as food production
and transportation is curtailed sharply. Also severe weather (super winter)
along with biological and other terrorist attacks hasten the collapse. This
phase lasts at least 3-6 months leading to the next phase relatively quickly.
4. GOVERNMENTAL COLLAPSE
* Things begin to break down so fast that the effectiveness of the government
collapses. Society breaks down into state governments and then into local
mobs. The authority forces (police & military) are just overwhelmed and
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -35mobocracy (rule of the gun), takes over. Regional militias (which are nothing
short of mobs) wage war on each other. This phase lasts for 1-2 years.
5. WAR/INVASION
* Other countries, seeing the United States in such chaos take advantage of
the opportunity and launch their war plans against the United States/North
America, Europe and other countries. The Middle East W ar, which has been
a limited war...now explodes into a full Jihadic war supported by all of the
Islamic nations with the intent to eradicated Israel. (Armageddon.)
THE QUESTION REMAINS...HOW SOON FOR EACH SEQUENCE? ONLY TIME WILL
TELL FOR ANYTHING EXCEPT THE FIRST PHASE.
EVENT DETAILS:
SUMMARY OF EVENTS I EXPECT TO SEE IN THE NEXT 1-6
MONTHS
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Christmas retail sales reports will be horrendous...except maybe discount
stores like W almart. A large surge of bankruptcies will follow over the next
few months.
The unemployment rate will continue to skyrocket as businesses close their
doors, banks get taken over by other banks (the bank version of closing their
doors), and the economy drops even faster.
Stock market (DJIA) to lose another 1000-2000 points, possibly more. (6500
or lower)
Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran will retaliate by shutting down oil
supplies out of the Gulf of Hormuz.
Obama will go on an unbelievable Government W elfare Spending spree.
W hat we have seen over the past 6 months by Bush will be small in
comparison.
Obama and his “team” will continue to be embroiled in corruption charges
and scandal. It will make Bill and Hillary seem “clean” by comparison.
I expect the US Supreme Court to ignore the challenge to Obama’s
citizenship. If a miracle does happen, and they do take one of the various
cases that have been appealed to it... things will happen so that the end
result will be that Obama will be declared a citizen.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -36*
*
*
Oil to jump back up to $60-$80+ per barrel with subsequent rise at the pump.
(Perhaps $3-$4 at the pump.)
Food prices to generally keep on rising. At least another 20%–50%.
A Russian Expansionism move somewhere. It could be Ukraine, Poland,
Eastern Europe, W est Asia, Middle East.
EVENTS I EXPECT TO SEE IN THE NEXT 12-24 MONTHS
* 5-10 Major Natural Disasters (each involving tens of thousands of people).
Fires, Floods, Earthquakes, Tornados, Hurricanes, Tsunamis here in the
U.S.
* Major crop failures in parts of the world.
* Food prices on most items to double. Especially wheat/rice/beans.
* Gas at $5 gal. It could even go to $10 gal.
* More roving power outages throughout the country
* International Pandemic or Pandemics
* Pakistan & India start a small scale war, probably over Kashmir. (Again.)
* Lebanon to be overrun/taken over by Syrian/Iranian forces...supplied &
supported by Russian equipment.
* Hamas/Hizbolla (supported by Syria/Iran/Lebanon/Russia) launch a major
war with Israel on some pretext or another. In essence this is just the
continuation of the Lebanon W ar that happened two years ago. However,
this time...Israel’s enemies have prepared well for it. Perhaps this is the
prelude to the Armageddon war. (Things are just about right for it...but I
hope not.) Probably in Summer 2009.
* Prop 8 in California...overturned as probably being unconstitutional. This
will signal renewed efforts by the Gay/lesbian coalition to increase their
attacks on those (primarily religious conservatives) who opposed them. The
country will become even more greatly divided on the issue. ProGay/Lesbian laws will be enforced in California and other states.
Eventually, all anti-Gay & Lesbian laws and Pro-traditional marriage/family
laws in every state will be swept aside. The effect will be that all groups,
clubs, organizations, religious groups, and individuals will be subjected to
lawsuits to be forced to provide services for the gay and lesbian community.
* Lawsuits against LDS church and other Churches succeed at the US
Supreme Court in having them declared non-Church entities. The LDS
Church will lose its tax exempt status. The persecution against the LDS
Church and other conservative Christian groups will increase, especially
prior the next congressional elections.
* There will be an Increase in general violence & crime everywhere. Gangs
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -37-
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
will flourish, especially in the larger cities.
Specific unrest/violence and even riots over economy, food, etc. in larger
cities
Regional Martial law declared at first in large cities...and then possibly
nationwide.
Several large terrorist attacks on US assets, including a few in the
continent, even perhaps a small nuclear weapon.
Unemployment rates at least double if not triple. (U-3 reaches 15%+...U-6
hits 24%... U-8 hits 35%)
Complete US dollar collapse.
Gold at $2000+. Silver at $30+
Many Troops will be pulled out of Iraq. But they will not come home. The
will most likely be increased into Afganistan.
The US Military budget will be cut, perhaps as much as half. (New
weapons development programs and New weapons to be put into
production.)
Social and W elfare spending will increase by trillions of dollars.
Banking holidays... where a large number or all of them close their doors for
a period of time.
Russian moves against Ukraine trying to force it back into the Russian
camp. They will ultimately be successful.
POSSIBLE SEQUENCE & TIMING....
U.S./NORTH AMERICA IN THE NEXT 12-24
MONTHS
**THE 2009 SPRING OF DEFLATION...Good News-Bad News for another few
months. (3-6 months?)
* GOOD NEW S--Things are cheap and still available for the most part. LAST
CHANCE TO STOCK UP ON THINGS while you can...invest in
commodities. (Food, gold, silver, bullets, guns, etc.)
-Gas might hit $1 gal.
*
BAD NEW S...people are losing their jobs. As was pointed out in last
months newsletter... contrary to what the government and the experts are
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -38saying, unemployment will continue to climb. In fact it will skyrocket,
especially after the Holiday Retail Sales disaster and the surge of
bankruptcies, foreclosures, defaults, etc, that will follow.
*
Gold & Silver will lead the way for Hyperinflation. The question is how long
can “TPTB” keep it under valued. Probably only a couple of months more
and then it will take off. It will quickly jump to $2000 and then as
Hyperinflation occurs in more areas, it could double again by the end of
summer and possibly even again by the end of the year. Currently, large
scale purchases of gold are not available. W atch Comex.
PUBLIC RELEASE NOTE: As pointed out in subsequent GRI
Newsletters. Though many of the events of the Summer of Hell have
started to happen, (gas prices, some food items, corruption, DJI hit 6500,
high unemployment, pandemic, disasters...) most of the events of the
Summer of Hell, have been pushed back a couple of months into late
Summer and the Fall.
**THE 2009 SUMMER OF HELL
(Economy collapse/Hyperinflation begins)
* Excess Inventory has been sold off and the economy has tanked big time.
The Reality of flooding trillions of dollars into the money supply, the
complete absurdity of the many “bailouts,” and the completely inept
political/economic leadership has begun to hit home.
-Look for the summer of unemployment, food scarcity, roving power
outages, multiple big storms & other “100 year” natural disasters (which
are now happening annually and semi-annually), violence & riots in the
larger cities, and overall prices skyrocketing on almost everything.
Gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, propane, energy, and coal prices will
explode.
-Crime will explode. There will be more robberies, murders, road rage,
rapes, beatings, shootings, etc. Gangs, (along racial lines), will expand
even more and become more violent, controlling large sections of cities.
-There will be a new intolerance that will be demonstrated across the
country along racial lines, religious lines, political lines, sexual
persuasions, and other groups.
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -39-Homeland security will begin to declare regional emergency after
regional emergency and will employ troops (both US and foreign) to
help control things. Martial law will be declared in specific areas and it
will expand. It will be the summer of discontent and everyone will be
expressing it both verbally and physically. Domestic terrorism will
increase.
-The new administration will be overwhelmed by both domestic and
international incidents. It will be beset by mounting charges of
corruption and incompetence. It will enact massive public works,
welfare, and more bailout programs across the country...but they will do
little to stem the economic collapse and the tide of discontent.
-The Constitution will be completely set aside or ignored, perhaps even
officially replaced because of some declared emergency. The
Homeland Security Act will be implemented and enforced more fully.
- The new currency will be introduced to replace the dollar. It will be
recognized in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
-There will be large groups of people leaving the US “sinking ship.”
There will be cries and efforts from various states for succession from
the United States.
ADDITIONAL INTERNATIONAL EVENTS
Next Month GRI will present Part 2 of the Russian Expansionism plan. This will
focus on primarily its partner...China.
Watch for Special GRI CHATS to be announced during the month of January.
You will not want to miss them.
ÈÈÈÈÈÈ
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved
Page -40-
GRI Newsletter, January 2009 © Roger K. Young 2009 all rights reserved