Census 2011: Filling in the Gaps
With Data Models
David Wilson
17 September 2013
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IHS – A leading information provider
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IHS Regional eXplorer
Population structure, 2011
Male
Census2011 vs. IHS
Female
Census2011
70-74
IHS Global Insight
60-64
50.3m
IHS Total 2011
Population Estimate
50-54
40-44
30-34
51.5m
20-24
10-14
Census 2011
Population Estimate
00-04
8%
6%
4%
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
IHS Regional eXplorer
Population Enumerated in the
Census
Population
True Population
Enumerated in
the PES
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
IHS Regional eXplorer
1996
2001
2011
People (m)
40.58
1996
44.82
2001
51.77
2011
Undercount
People (m) (%)
10.7%
40.58
17.6%
44.82
14.6%
51.77
Out
of Scope(%)
(m)
Undercount
10.7%
2.19
17.6%
1.79
14.6%
Actual
(m)
Out of counted
Scope (m)
36.25
35.11
2.19
42.08
1.79
Actual counted (m)
36.25
35.11
42.08
49.8m – 53.7m
True Population Range
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IHS Regional eXplorer
Industry Specific Indicators
related to output
Sectoral & Structural Trends
and Indicators
National Accounts
Economic Module
Global Economy
Commodity Trends
Econometric Sectoral Model
International Trade
Unemployment
Household Income
Retail Sales
Skill Levels
Labour
Module
Income
Module
Consumption
HIV
Fertility
Remuneration
Formal / Informal
Employment
Demographic Module
Life expectancy
Cohort Component Model
Age distribution
Migration
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Absorption
Mortality
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
HIV
Fertility
Demographic Module
Life expectancy
Cohort Component Model
Age distribution
Mortality
Migration
Population year 2
Population year 1
Stable
Births
Deaths
Immig.
Emig.
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IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
HIV
Fertility
Demographic Module
Life expectancy
Cohort Component Model
Age distribution
Mortality
Migration
World Population t+1
World Population t
Inside South Africa
Foreign Born
Population
Foreign Born
Population
SA Born
Population
SA Born
Population
Foreign Born
Population
Foreign Born
Population
Births
Outside South Africa
Outside South Africa
SA Born
Population
Deaths
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Births
Inside South Africa
Deaths
SA Born
Population
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Fertility Rates - African Population Group
Current
Previous
3.4
Total Fertility Rate
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
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IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Demographic Module
HIV
40k
Life expectancy
Flows from South Africa to the
United Kingdom (various sources)
Cohort Component Model
Age distribution
Fertility
Declared Outward Emigration
Mortality
Migration
Settlement Grants Issued
30k
20k
15k
k
SA Born
Population
Foreign Born
Population
Foreign Born
Population
SA Born
Population
SA Born
Population
Foreign Born
Population
Foreign Born
Population
Deaths
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Births
Births
Outside South Africa
5k
Outside South Africa
10k
Deaths
SA Born
Population
Inside South Africa
IPS Immigrants
25k
World Population t+1
World Population t
Inside South Africa
Number of People (thousands)
35k
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
People Born in South Africa, Living in the UK (various sources)
250k
UK Census - SA Born
Number of People (thousands)
UK Household Survey (SA Born)
200k
150k
100k
50k
k
1970
1975
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1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Foreign Born African Population in South Africa
1.6
1.4
1.2
100
Cumulative Declared Immigration
90
Census Foreign Born Pop
80
UN Refugee Trends
70
1.0
60
50
0.8
0.6
40
30
0.4
20
0.2
10
0.0
0
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Thousand Refugees Moved pa
Foreign Born Population Millions
1.8
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Net Migration by Population Group
200k
Thousand People
150k
100k
50k
k
-50k
-100k
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African
White
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Source
Gauteng
ASSA
BMR
IHS GI
StatsSA
10.82
10.38
10.81
11.33
Census 2011
12.27
-1.45
-1.89
-1.46
-0.94
KwaZulu-Natal
10.56
10.41
10.52
10.82
10.27
0.29
0.14
0.25
0.55
North West
3.47
3.34
3.52
3.25
3.51
* All models are mid-year estimates, Census 2011 is an October number
* Provincial boundaries are not explicitly defined either.
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-0.04
-0.17
0.01
-0.26
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Xhosa Speaking population
Province
Western Cape
Eastern Cape
Northern Cape
Free State
KwaZulu-Natal
North West
Gauteng
Mpumalanga
Limpopo
South Africa
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2001
(all ages)
1 071 808
5 250 182
54 373
246 215
335 984
242 638
644 378
45 945
15 631
7 907 154
2011
(aged 10&up)
1 108 560
3 875 237
48 099
160 445
272 375
154 467
641 393
39 952
17 133
6 317 661
Xhosa
Survival
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
2011
Expected
856 354
4 194 792
43 443
196 721
268 445
193 863
514 845
36 709
12 489
6 317 661
Movement
252 206
-319 555
4 656
-36 276
3 930
-39 396
126 548
3 243
4 644
-
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
150k
Net Provincial Migration
People Migrated
Current
100k
50k
k
-50k
-100k
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Previous
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
2013 Population Pyramid - African
Male
3
Female
75+
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
05-09
00-04
2
1
1
Million People
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2
3
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Registration Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Birth year
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
more registrations
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less registrations
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
10th Day School Survey
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
GR1
GR2
GR3
GR4
GR5
1 055 397 1 090 765 1 178 712 1 167 949 1 088 836
1 150 637
944 961 1 087 675 1 175 860 1 098 863
1 286 591 1 012 892
949 721 1 076 107 1 142 806
1 277 499 1 111 858 1 003 331
952 465 1 035 707
1 303 016 1 109 201 1 081 956
985 139
916 911
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IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Number of Learners per Grade (1999-2012)
(Assuming Grade is a good proxy for Age)
GR1
Number of Learners, indexed to 1994=1
1.25
GR2
1.2
GR3
1.15
GR4
1.1
GR5
GR6
1.05
GR7
1
GR 8
0.95
GR 9
0.9
GR 10
GR 11
0.85
GR 12
0.8
1986
1988
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1990
1992
1994 1996 1998
Approximate Year Born
2000
2002
2004
Avg
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Age Distribution, 2011
Year Born
% of population / overlayed index value
Source comparisons
2011
2.3%
2006
2001
1996
1991
1986
20
25
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
Census 2011
Other Surveys
Births StatsSA (incl estimates for late registrations)
Births Dept of Home Affairs
Learners Dept of Education
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
0
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5
10
15
Age (in 2011)
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Urban / Rural Age Distribution
3.0%
Rural (<500 p/km2), 22.5m
Urban (>500 p/km2) 29.3m
% of Population
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
100
Age
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0.0%
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Economic Output
Relative Product
Share of current prices
Capita GDP (2011)
JHB
16.7%
Top Five
Population
Cape Town
34.5%
10.7%
Durban
10.2%
Top 5 Metros
R85.3k
Remainder
46.8%
Everywhere Else
Pretoria
9.5% Ekurhuleni
6.1%
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R37.5k
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
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IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
PGM Production (kg pa)
350
PGM Mining
PGM Mining Employees
Employees
300
93k
250
Minerals Bureau 1997
200
150
199k
100
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
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2012
Minerals Bureau 2012
50
1997
Thousands
Platinum Group Metals Mining Industry
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Gold Mining Industry
Gold Production (kg pa)
800
Gold Mining Employees
Gold Mining
Employees
700
350k
Thousands
600
500
Minerals Bureau 1996
400
300
200
123k
100
Minerals Bureau 2012
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2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
0
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Rustenburg
Odendaalsrus
108k
650k
106k
600k
104k
550k
102k
500k
100k
450k
98k
400k
96k
350k
94k
300k
92k
250k
90k
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Odendaalsrus Population
Rustenburg Population
700k
A Tale of Two Mining Towns
IHS Regional eXplorer Demography
Local Municipalities
Local Municipalities
Metropolitan Municipalities
Economy Size, Diversity and Growth
Bubble Size:
Growth in GDP 1996-2011
JHB
8.7
Gross Geographic Product (Log)
CT
ETH
8.2
TSH
EKU
NMA
BUF
7.7
Rustenburg
MAN
Thabazimbi
7.2
Moss.
Bay.
6.7
6.2
Plettenberg
5.7
Laingsburg
5.2
30
40
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50
60
Tress Index
70
80
90
28
Witbank
300k
IHS Witbank
Population Estimate
350k
Census 2011
Witbank Estimate
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Witbank
South African Coal Production
24
Million Tonnes of Coal Produced
22
20
18
16
14
12
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
10
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Witbank
2001
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Witbank
2013
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Take Away Points
Revisions to Existing Models
Migration Trends
Fertility Rates
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Take Away Points
Was Census 2011 of Suitable Quality?
a
a
Does the Economic Story Make Sense?
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Thank You
David Wilson
david.wilson@ihs.com
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.