WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS WHITE PAPER – INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Last Mile Backhaul Options for West European Mobile Operators By Dimitris Mavrakis, Senior Analyst Associate. Dimitris coordinated the research and formulated the calculation model for backhaul costs. Dimitris is an experienced analyst with more than 10 years experience in mobile telecoms. He has a PhD in 4G mobile networks and is the author of several strategic reports; Dimitris has also undertaken many consultancy projects on behalf of leading operators and vendors. Chris White, Director, Bristol York Ltd, Chris is a telecoms consultant with widespread experience of mobile telecoms having consulted with BT, Cable & Wireless, Vodafone, SK Telecom, Nokia and Ericsson. He has authored a number of reports for Informa and other research firms including Facing The Backhaul Challenge, Femtocells & Picocells; and Mobile TV. Freda Benlamlih, Editor/Co-ordinator, is Director of Consulting at Informa Telecoms & Media. She has broad ranging expertise in mobile and fixed communications markets and has worked on projects on mobile handsets and interfaces, wireless automation, telematics & M2M, networks & infrastructure. She is a Member of the Chartered Institute of Linguists (MCIL). For further information please contact Freda Benlamlih on +44 20 70175558 or email: fredab@informa.com This white paper contains the findings of independent research and analysis carried out by Informa Telecoms & Media between December 2009 and February 2010. The research was sponsored by Cambridge Broadband Networks. Table of Contents Section A – Mobile market overview ………………………………………………………………………………… 1 Section B – Western European Mobile Backhaul ……………………………… ……………………………… 12 Section C – Cost Comparison …………………………………………………………………………………………… 11 Section D – Conclusions …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 15 Appendix ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 16 Sponsored by Cambridge Broadband Networks ABOUT INFORMA TELECOMS & MEDIA Informa Telecoms & Media is the leading provider of business intelligence and strategic marketing solutions to global telecoms and media markets. Driven by constant first-hand contact with the industry our 90 analysts and researchers produce a range of intelligence services including news and analytical products, in-depth market reports and datasets focused on technology, strategy and content. Informa Telecoms & Media – Head Office Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street London W1T 3JH, UK Website: www.informatm.com ABOUT CAMBRIDGE BROADBAND NETWORKS Cambridge Broadband Networks is pioneering the development and deployment of next generation microwave transmission equipment. The company’s VectaStar ‘point-to-multipoint’ (PTMP) microwave backhaul and access solutions were designed to meet the unique requirements of data saturated mobile networks. They are highly efficient, quick to deploy and offer significant capital and operational savings compared to the legacy point to point solutions they replace. VectaStar is deployed by more operators, in more markets, than any other PTMP solution and operates at the heart of the world’s busiest mobile data network. Privately-held, Cambridge Broadband Networks has headquarters in Cambridge, UK, with offices in Malaysia and South Africa and manufacturing facilities in China. For more information, visit www.cbnl.com For further information about, please contact: Lance Hiley Cambridge Broadband Networks Ltd. Tel: +44 1223 703 000 Email: LHiley@cbnl.com Acknowledgements For this white paper interviews were conducted with the following companies Ericsson T-Mobile Vodafone Telia Sonera © Informa UK Limited 2010 All rights reserved. The contents of this publication are protected by international copyright laws, database rights and other intellectual property rights. The owner of these rights is Informa UK Limited, our affiliates or other third party licensors. All product and company names and logos contained within or appearing on this publication are the trade marks, service marks or trading names of their respective owners, including Informa UK Limited. This publication may not be:(a) copied or reproduced; or (b) lent, resold, hired out or otherwise circulated in any way or form without the prior permission of Informa UK Limited. Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the information and content of this publication was correct as at the date of first publication, neither Informa UK Limited nor any person engaged or employed by Informa UK Limited accepts any liability for any errors, omissions or other inaccuracies. Readers should independently verify any facts and figures as no liability can be accepted in this regard - readers assume full responsibility and risk accordingly for their use of such information and content. Any views and/or opinions expressed in this publication by individual authors or contributors are their personal views and/or opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views and/or opinions of Informa UK Limited. WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Section A – Mobile market overview Backhaul has always been upgraded in parallel to the RAN network in a linear fashion. This was fine for the voice-centric world where demand could be easily predicted and there was a direct correlation between traffic and revenues. However, the seismic shift in capacity and demand for data has put such a strain on this relationship that a more radical upgrade is required. The main reasons for this are three major trends that have upset the balance of cost to revenue within the network: • Flat rate data plans where users can opt for “as much as you can eat” data tariffs. This has encouraged subscribers to use their handset in the same way they use their Internet connection at home or in the office. • Higher end handsets, dongles and tablets that allow laptop-like products and services. Multimedia capability leads to a greater strain on bandwidth • Broadband speeds on the network with HSPA and above commonplace. This is leading to very peaky traffic in the network With this in mind operators are balancing their burgeoning OPEX costs against the CAPEX costs of upgrading. The perfect option would be a staged migration path where CAPEX could be kept in check whilst lowering OPEX over time. The transmission technology migration paths come in many forms however. The list includes E1 lines, fibre, satellite, Free Space Optics and microwave. Traditionally, the operator would simply plug in extra E1 lines but this linear approach to upgrade cannot cope with the step change in bandwidth. There is general consensus that although E1s are not going to go away soon, they are not really a viable alternative for the operator looking to prepare for the future. Fibre is the ultimate long-term solution but prohibitively expensive for most operators in the short to medium term. Partnering with a cable player or fixed line incumbent who can justify the roll out costs by providing the backbone to several operators is increasingly attractive. However, microwave has been proven to be the most popular solution in the last 3-5 years, albeit as part of a wider backhaul mix including wireline. Informa estimates that 60% of last mile traffic in Europe is carried over microwave. PDH, SONET/SDH and ATM represent the legacy technologies in backhaul and are still likely to make up a significant portion of traffic for some time, gradually getting phased out. New methods of running Ethernet over PDH and SDH as well as ATM will ensure continuity over the transition period. 1.1 CAPEX Forecasts As a consequence of this data explosion, the amount spent by operators on backhaul has increased dramatically over the last 3 years. Informa predicts that backhaul CAPEX will level off over the forecast period as operators tackle their medium term problems with microwave and start build out fibre. 1 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS The major pan European operators – Vodafone, Orange, T-Mobile and Telefonica – have spent heavily on upgrading their networks but are also entering into backhaul sharing agreements. Alliances between Vodafone and Telefonica as well as T-Mobile and 3 are likely to be the first of many and this will again serve to lower overall CAPEX and OPEX expenditures. Full scale merger is also underway in several countries (eg Orange UK and T-Mobile UK) and this will reduce CAPEX spend on backhaul. Cost savings will increasingly move beyond simple mast sharing to network sharing. Table 1: European Backhaul CAPEX expenditure 2009-2013 ($ million) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2,504 2,598 2,632 2,689 2,795 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media The mix of technologies will shift during this period with a move away from E1 to alternative technologies and a general move to Ethernet. Users of legacy equipment will increasingly find themselves at an OPEX cost disadvantage to Ethernet users – on average 7-10 times the Ethernet equivalent OPEX cost – and will thus be forced into the Ethernet camp. 1.2 Market Drivers The principal drivers that are moving the backhaul market are demand related. The huge increase in demand created by upgraded RAN networks; new device types; flat-rate data contracts and laptop users using the mobile network is pushing data traffic to new highs. The fundamental correlation between traffic and revenue is diverging which means operators have to invest in different kind of backhaul to create a new cost/revenue equation. 1.2.1 Divergence Between Mobile Data Traffic & Revenues There is clear evidence that the surge in mobile broadband subscribers is boosting mobile operator data revenues but data traffic is growing much faster than data revenues and this is adversely affecting profit margins. Mobile operators are now grappling with the challenges faced by ISPs in the early years of the fixed broadband Internet – how to scale their networks and cost structures to cope with data volumes that are growing dramatically faster than data revenues. Looking forward, Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts that global mobile data traffic will increase at a CAGR of 76% from 238PB in 2008 to 4,105PB in 2013, representing an increase of 1587% from 2008 to 2013. Global mobile data revenues will increase 84% from US$175 billion in 2008 to US$322 billion in 2013, but will not come close to keeping pace with the network traffic boom. This will lead operators and vendors to significantly reduce costs through everything from outsourcing to network upgrades. 1.2.2 HSPA Creates New Data Burden With the growth of HSPA deployments and the upgrade path to LTE, new products and services will become available. Access to HSDPA, HSUPA and HSPA+ is increasing all the time in Western Europe and is expected to increase continually in the forecast period for this study through 2013 2 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS and beyond. Gradually, non-broadband data will be overtaken as the proliferation of HSPA mobile and portable devices increases. The worrying aspect of more widespread HSPA is that it creates a high peak to mean variance in bandwidth requirement – sometimes varying tenfold or more in one cell. Very peaky traffic is becoming a challenge for mobile operators since it means they have to over-provision their network so that it is never fully utilised. One way to deal with this is to use technologies such as Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) to manage and prioritise data flows within the network or to use more flexible network configurations that allow cell offload of peak traffic. Europe will be the leading region for LTE throughout the forecast period, due to the deployment plans of several operators including Telecom Italia and TeliaSonera. The region is expected to have 390,000 LTE subscribers in 2010 increasing at a CAGR of 236% to 15 million in 2013. 1.2.3 Dongles & Flat Rate Plans Lead To Wall of Data By introducing flat rate or ‘all you can eat’ tariffs operators are effectively encouraging their customers to access the Internet in the same way as PC users - to access 'free' services, be they Internet mail, information and entertainment services or third-party e-commerce sites. This is a reversal of previous mobile operator thinking, which saw the operator trying to develop a revenue stream from Internet content as well as access and directing their users to their operator-owned walled garden. Portable devices like laptops and net-books tend to have different usage profiles to a mobile phone. Users may wish to stream a video or download a large file to work on which they would be reluctant to do on a mobile phone. As portable devices become more popular it seems likely that operators will struggle to maintain QoS on their RAN networks and will have to be more efficient on their backhaul networks to make the services viable. 1.3 Backhaul Market & Technology Trends 1.3.1 Continued Growth Of Pseudowire GSM and UMTS networks today generally use TDM and ATM, not Ethernet, as interfaces for base stations. Therefore, if these operators want to capitalize on the benefits of using inexpensive packet-switched transport (DSL, wireless, GPON), they need some means of emulating TDM or ATM over Ethernet. The basis for the solution comes in the form of pseudowire types of circuit emulation and pseudowire types of service emulation, which enable TDM- and ATM-type traffic, such as 2G GSM and 3G UMTS, to run transparently over IP. As an interim technology with the main purpose being to help mobile operators bridge the gap between their legacy networks and their future all-IP networks, it is not seen as a long-term option. Therefore, as operators replace their legacy backhaul networks with more advanced technology, it becomes more likely that the need for pseudowire will dissipate in advanced markets. 3 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS 1.3.2 Backhaul Network Sharing Previously, sharing backhaul was going too far for many operators. Although there were plenty of companies sharing passively, using the same tower, this did not address the traffic issue. Active sharing, using the same boxes and transport facilities, is on the increase as operators look to spread the costs of backhaul upgrade. Up till now, most sharing has been done on a country by country basis but there are signs that pan European deals may come to pass. Vodafone and Telefonica are exploring options in multiple countries and it seems likely that second and third operators in most regions will look to reduce CAPEX and OPEX through similar arrangements. 1.3.3 Increased Use Of PON A passive optical network (PON) is a point to multipoint, fibre to the premises network architecture in which unpowered optical splitters are used to enable a single optical fibre to serve multiple premises. Gigabyte PON represents a boost in both the total bandwidth and bandwidth efficiency through the use of larger, variable-length packets. PON is a more cost–effective way to deliver fibre but the use of PON—be it GPON, EPON, or WDM– PON—for wireless backhaul continues to be low scale. Informa does not expect PON to leapfrog microwave or copper–based technologies in the near term. 1.3.4 Growth in Use of DPI Another technology seeing increased use is deep packet inspection (DPI) and deep content inspection (DCI). Until recently, DPI/DCI was mostly used for surveillance and other security applications but is now being used to analyse network, application and user behaviour, service control and traffic management, as well as security, peer to peer control (such as for VoIP), and distributed denial of attack mitigation. DPI software can intercept all incoming traffic and ensure each bit is routed appropriately, even altering the way data is carried if necessary – such as to accommodate a router that can’t cope with MPLS. 1.3.5 Unlicensed & Spread Spectrum Gains Interest Because of shortages in licensed spectrum in Europe, operators are looking at unlicensed and spread spectrum as alternatives for backhaul. Spread spectrum techniques (e.g. frequency hopping spread spectrum) mitigate security concerns in unlicensed bands but impose spectral efficiency overheads to process the signal. Interference is a big hindrance to unlicensed spectrum. Of the three technologies, licensed microwave produces the least residual noise and gives the greatest protection ("isolation") from interference. Unlicensed systems simply do not incorporate the level of interference protection that the higher cost licensed radios do, and that mobile operators require given their cost for time out of service and service level agreements with operator corporate customers. That and the lack of adequate standards mean that no unlicensed vendor will guarantee a single year of clear, interference-free operation. As such, unlicensed spectrum solutions are rarely deployed in 4 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS mobile networks, except in cases where temporary, quickly deployed backhaul solutions are necessary. Licensed radios also use higher performance antennas. Those antennas have a more narrow beam-width than what's used in spread spectrum and unlicensed radios. At face value, licensed microwave is several times more costly than unlicensed and spread spectrum radios. However, total cost of ownership and the trade off with performance may make unlicensed and spread spectrum generally less attractive. Section B: Western European Mobile Backhaul 2.1 Mobile Backhaul Market Trends Most mobile operators in Western Europe will currently be running a mix of technologies. Many will be leasing rather than owning the network but all are looking at new technologies to manage the high data growth throughout the region. Legacy technologies that were devised for voice, such as ATM, PDH or SONET/SDH, will continue to run alongside any upgrade or new rollout for the foreseeable future. Microwave continues to be the most popular form of last mile backhaul for European mobile networks, with a market share continuing at 60% or better of most European cell sites for the next 5 years or more. Fibre and microwave share is currently increasing at the expense of the only form of backhaul in decline, which is copper. However, Fibre and microwave have their challenges in Europe: Fibre is costly and time consuming to deploy. Conventional microwave is struggling to cope with ever-denser networks, which put strain on network architecture and spectrum resources. New microwave solutions are coming to prominence to deal with the issue. Over the air backhaul has gained in popularity significantly in the last 2-3 years as the price points and performance improved. Virtually all Tier-1 operators use microwave to backhaul their traffic to a greater or lesser extent. A lot of operators already have spectrum that they can utilize as backhaul with microwave and even unlicensed spectrum is being looked at. 2.1.1 Balancing OPEX and CAPEX The major backhaul challenges facing mobile operators in Western Europe are as follows: • Preventing Operating expenses getting out of control while supporting exponential data traffic growth • Transitioning away from legacy to new backhaul technologies in a logical and efficient manner • 5 Getting the technology mix right at the right time WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS In order to deal with these challenges most operators are building a medium-term plan to manage OPEX costs with an eye towards a move to fibre in the long-term where practical. The various tools at their disposal are market tools such as backhaul sharing or leasing and technology tools such as using new technologies and improvements in traffic management such as DPI and statistical gain. In order to effectively pursue a mobile backhaul strategy the operator needs to balance their CAPEX and OPEX expenditure and accurately assess the total cost of ownership (TCO) of deployment. In order to better understand the implications of these decisions Informa has built a series of matrices to weigh up the advantages and disadvantages of each different technology options with regard to OPEX and CAPEX against performance gains. By looking at the following OPEX and the CAPEX matrices, the operator can determine a best fit for a short to medium-term strategy. The matrices below plot the relative performance of leading backhaul technologies against their operating expenses (left matrix) and their capital expenses (right matrix). This is over a 5 year timeframe and is Informa’s opinion based on discussions with operators and vendors. Figure 1: OPEX / CAPEX Decision Matrices l Source: Informa Telecoms & Media In the OPEX matrix, fibre is the most attractive proposition. Fibre degradation is low so replacement or breakdown is likely to be infrequent and bandwidth can be improved via software upgrade rather than expensive hardware replacement. It is also an extremely high bandwidth solution – 100Mbps in early deployments rising to 3Gbps in later versions. CAPEX is a different matter however and fibre is seen to be prohibitively expensive to deploy widely in Europe in the coming years. E1 replacement is the least attractive proposition from an OPEX point of view. Essentially adding more lines is a linear way to deal with something that needs a step change to a new technology. Very soon the costs of maintaining a network of E1’s will put the operator at such a cost disadvantage it will be deemed non-viable. Depending on how the operator accounts for E1’s the CAPEX can be relatively minor. 6 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Pseudowire or equivalent E1 over Ethernet technologies are an attractive proposition for operators looking to manage short-term resources effectively and cheaply. Both CAPEX and OPEX are relatively modest but over the years it is likely to become less attractive as it is restrained by the legacy networks on which it runs. It is likely to be used in Ethernet backhaul networks to support existing E1 interfaced base stations where the expense to upgrade the base station to Ethernet can not be justified. Similarly, software that enables better management of traffic can only go so far in managing backhaul. However, as part of the wider mix of technologies it is an essential tool to maximise resources. It is also a low cost way of managing traffic in an effective manner. Despite being capable of sending up to 1.25 Gbps of data, voice, and video communications simultaneously through the air without requiring physical fibre-optic Free Space Optics has several things against it that are clearly the reasons for its lack of success in Europe. It has a limited range, it has deep fade in fog and rain, and it also suffers from a lack of commercial pedigree and proven deployment advantages. Operators are reluctant to add yet another technology, especially one with a short history, to their mix of backhaul technologies. WiMAX and next generation WiMAX as a backhaul medium has never really been tried thoroughly. Costs are likely to be low as the likelihood is WiMAX will have more than one use (ie backhaul will have to share with other services). However, for this reason there may be a performance tradeoff as backhaul has to deal with the peaks and troughs of other services. WiMAX in its present form also has lower capacity capability than Microwave or Fibre. Satellite backhaul is expensive to maintain and largely impractical for the urban and suburban centres of Europe. It may have some in-fill applications in remote or rural areas however. Performance will be limited although in terms of distance it has no limitations. Microwave backhaul solutions come out better when looking at both OPEX and CAPEX overall. As a low cost rapid to deploy solution they are comparatively high performance and low overall cost. Of the Microwave backhaul solutions, Microwave Point to Multipoint (Microwave PTMP) sits in the advantageous top right quadrant in both matrices. PTMP uses less antennas than PTP and E-Band microwave and so has a lower OPEX cost in terms of maintenance and the cost of renting space for the tower. PTMP is also more spectrally efficient which is very important with Europe’s shortage in spectrum. 2.2 Comparative Benefits Matrix This analysis is based on a 5 year timeframe using a tier 1 Western European operator as the case example. Obviously every country has a different topology and legacy network and every operator will have different priorities and strategic plans for its RAN network but in this case it is assumed the operator has an HSPA network and a mix of existing backhaul technologies including E1’s and PTP microwave backhaul. In the case of spectral efficiency, wireline technologies automatically score 5 since they are subject to a much friendlier communications channel – contrary to wireless which is facing a hostile radio environment – and make full use of available bandwidth. 7 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Figure 2: Comparative Benefits Matrix Source: Informa Telecoms & Media 2.2.1 PTMP Microwave Overall, the technology most suited to deal with the current upgrade requirement in Western Europe is Microwave PTMP with 28 points. PTMP microwave scores highly on low CAPEX costs due to the reduced number of antennas required and on OPEX costs due to the need for less roof space and rental costs for those antennas. It also has excellent bandwidth performance due to its ability to manage traffic dynamically in a distributed architecture. Deployment time is less than half of PTP and the only issue it is facing is lower market penetration due to the predominance of PTP microwave in Europe. However, PTMP has now evolved to a mature, tactical and strategic technology and increasingly being considered for mobile broadband operators. A traditional point-to-point (PTP) network has two radios for each link compared with one for PTMP. This very simple fundamental difference between PTP and PTMP is one of the key reasons that PTMP is cheaper than PTP. Less equipment means lower CAPEX and lower OPEX (for example, roof right fees for antennae). PTMP systems have been designed both as single and bi-directional systems. A central antenna or antenna array broadcasts to several receiving antennae and the system uses a form of time division multiplexing to allow for the back-channel traffic. PTMP is increasingly viewed as a costeffective way to serve areas of higher base station density in urban and suburban environments. PTMP allows the operator to instantly share resources across radios and, as capacity and density rise, bandwidth can be distributed more effectively between links. Consequently PTMP offers a natural trunking gain, aggregating traffic from many points into a single point and then passing through the TDM, ATM, Ethernet, layer 2 native IP or any other interface/network protocol to be carried across the backbone. Further aggregation occurs at the PTMP Hub station where statistical multiplexing techniques reduce the bandwidth demand at the interface to the core network. This aggregated and 8 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS optimised traffic is then transported to the BSC/RNC over the Ethernet or SDH network, thus saving capacity. Statistical multiplexing is unique to PTMP and means CAPEX and OPEX can be further reduced. The primary reason PTMP has not seen wider adoption in Europe is mainly down to the unfamiliarity of mobile operators with PTMP spectrum and concerns that future demands may not be met by available spectrum. However, PTMP spectrum is practically underutilised in Europe – primarily due to the low penetration of PTMP - while PTP spectrum has become congested. Bundling by backhaul vendors and enhancements in PTP have managed to keep PTMP out of the market despite its success as a strategic backhaul solution elsewhere. However, several Tier-1 mobile operators have deployed PTMP in smaller scales, including Vodafone, TIM and T-Mobile. 2.2.2 E-Band Microwave Microwave E-Band also scores highly on OPEX reduction and performance but suffers from higher cost on CAPEX and spectral efficiency. There is some doubt about its ability to give ubiquitous coverage due to constraints on distance. Similarly, it suffers from a lack of deployments on which to draw experience. Overall E-Band scores 24 points. Systems operating at the e-band frequencies have two unique characteristics not experienced by conventional lower frequency devices. Firstly, the high operational frequencies of e-band systems make antennas highly directional, meaning systems communicate via highly focused "pencil beam" transmissions. Secondly, the 71-76 and 81-86 GHz frequency bands are configured as two single channels, meaning traditional frequency planning does not need to be considered. Together, these two unique properties of e-band systems enable operators to realize networks with a high degree of frequency reuse, even configuring links close to one another without interference concerns. E-Band uses a spectrum band that is easier to find in Europe and for short-distance links is extremely efficient. These short, fat pipes, traditionally used for local-area network (LAN) extension in private campus networks, might be valuable in dense urban cellular networks at the access or possibly aggregation layers. Their inherent limitations on link distance and poorweather performance may however make them less obvious as a choice for suburban and rural locations. Since e-band is a licensed technology, all links are granted full interference protection from other nearby wireless sources. Links are licensed under a "light license" process in most countries, whereby licenses can be obtained quickly and cheaply unlike spectrum for other solutions. 2.2.3 Fibre Fibre also scores highly overall with 24 points and specifically in the categories of long-term applicability, OPEX saving and bandwidth performance. It performs very badly in the CAPEX section and the speed of deployment. In areas where suitable wireline infrastructure is missing, microwave transmission can typically connect more than ten times as many sites for the same investment as a greenfield fibre-backhaul installation. The average cost of rolling out fibre ranges between US$32 and US$64 per metre, while microwave backhaul costs around 5% of that. 9 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Fibre is a long term solution that is too costly to roll out in most of Western Europe. The most likely scenario is that it will be deployed gradually over time with legacy technologies and microwave making up the largest share of the market until CAPEX costs are low enough for it to make sense. However, a case could be made to deploy fibre extensively in urban areas where there is already significant fibre presence if it is considered over a 10 year plus timeframe and network sharing could also make the technology more affordable. In terms of speed of deployment, fibre also performs poorly, with deployment times being dominated with requirement to dig up streets – 90 to 180 days is normal, with some deployments being longer. 2.2.4 PTP Microwave Traditional PTP microwave scores comparatively poorly on bandwidth and spectral efficiency with a total score of 23. Despite having a larger range and capacity per link, where a density of links is required in urban areas it does not perform as well. Its low initial cost per link however ensures CAPEX costs can be kept low. On the other hand, PTP microwave is very suitable in mesh networks when redundant links are included but is inefficient in its use of available spectrum and incurs high OPEX costs. Microwave is widely deployed throughout Europe and is a tried and tested technology. Compared with E1 connectivity the uptime expectations for licensed PTP microwave is much higher and this is an important factor for operators. PTP radios operating in the 7-15GHz bands often have far more capacity than is actually needed for a rural base transceiver station (BTS) link. The capital costs of these over-specified radios, combined with their installation costs, contribute to the significant increase in rural backhaul network costs. 2.2.5 E1 E1 lines are still the mainstay of many European networks but they are increasingly being supplemented or replaced by technologies better able to cope with the explosion in data capacity required. For that reason E1 lines had a total score of 21 points. Although upgrades can be made, the long term viability of E1 is severely impaired which is why it only scored 1 when it comes to upgrade path. Similarly, bandwidth performance is poor as there is a limit to how many lines can be added. The cost of these lines is becoming prohibitively expensive for an OPEX budget. 2.2.6 Hybrid E1/DSL Although the use of E1 lines is being reduced due to increasing costs, the availability of copper at the vast majority of base stations in Western Europe has allowed operators to take advantage of DSL to backhaul non-time critical traffic, in most cases HSPA traffic. Several infrastructure vendors are now bundling hybrid backhaul solutions with base stations and TDM infrastructure while mobile operators are starting to install DSL in congested base stations. Compared to E1 lines, DSL allows much higher data rates (up to 24Mbps and in most cases 16Mbps) at a fraction of the monthly cost. Although DSL can backhaul non-realtime data efficiently, it is currently considered a tactical short-term solution to alleviate backhaul constraints before a long-term solution is deployed in the next few years. Nevertheless, DSL is 10 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS receiving tactical importance to reduce E1 costs and is being deployed in mobile broadband operators throughout Europe in the short term. For this reason we have not included Hybrid E1/DSL in our table due to the fact that it is not a long-term backhaul solution. 2.2.7 Satellite Satellite backhaul scored 20 overall in the comparison matrix. Satellite is not particularly cost effective from a CAPEX and OPEX perspective in Western Europe. This is partly due to geography and the fact that wireline infrastructure is already well established. There may be a scenario eventually when satellite may make sense if it is shared by several operators and used in rural areas. Section C: Cost comparison 3.1 Background This section describes backhaul scenarios for two types of typical mobile operators in Western Europe. Although the calculations are not performed for specific operators, they are modelled after a typical case: A mobile broadband operator in a developed market who is currently experiencing radio network and backhaul bottlenecks and assessing upgrade scenarios for both networks. The majority of Tier-1 mobile operators in several developed markets fall under this category, including operators in UK, Germany, Nordic countries, France and Spain. The presence of cheap data tariffs and highend smartphones in these markets have created a mobile broadband explosion, creating challenges for mobile operators that aim to grow their subscriber base organically. All operator categories are experiencing similar challenges in backhaul but for different reasons. Cost savings must be achieved in both cases: advanced mobile broadband operators must keep costs to a minimum in order to generate revenues from exploding traffic (since traffic and revenues for mobile broadband are decoupled) whereas operators in developing markets are sensitive to new network rollouts in order to introduce a high margin, robust business model. The calculation methodology is presented in the Appendix. 3.2 Case study 3.2.1 Tier-1 Mobile broadband operator in UK This section describes the backhaul cost for a Tier-1 mobile broadband operator in the UK for various backhaul technologies. In order to get a grasp of cost involved with each technology, a direct comparison has been made between technologies, assuming that all backhaul traffic is transferred through a single technology. Although this is unlikely (due to terrain, copper/fibre availability), it outlines the overall cost of each technology to transfer the amount of traffic that goes through an advanced mobile broadband network. 11 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS The traffic included in the calculation model is presented in the following diagram. Figure 3: Total traffic for a Tier-1 UK mobile operator Source: Informa Telecoms & Media Although voice and data traffic were of similar size during 2008, the explosion of mobile broadband fuels an exponential increase on data traffic which creates bottlenecks in both radio and backhaul networks as the end of the forecasting period is reached. The following diagram illustrates the cost of transferring the data traffic (voice traffic is assumed to be transferred through E1) through the backhaul technologies outlined above. Figure 4: Cost comparison for various backhaul technologies Source: Informa Telecoms & Media 12 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Figure 5: Cost comparison for various backhaul technologies, lowest costs Source: Informa Telecoms & Media As expected, the highest backhaul cost is leasing E1 lines, due to the extremely high cost per Mbps and the need for multiple leased lines per base station. As the end of the forecast period approaches, the cost of backhauling traffic with E1 increases proportionally with traffic, making its use extremely inefficient. The second most expensive technology is fibre deployment but due to its higher capacity and long-term usage, it may be an option for certain mobile operators compared with leasing E1. The most cost effective technologies are microwave technologies, with PTMP being more cost efficient than PTP. This is also accentuated by the trend to own infrastructure rather than lease it, making RF the most viable solution if owned fibre is not present. Naturally, it is not possible to generalise backhaul requirements for all mobile operators, but the analysis presented above outlines the cost of each backhaul technology and suggests that microwave (especially PTMP) is the most cost-efficient. The following chart illustrates a realistic scenario, where traffic is backhauled through a variety of technologies, as in typical Tier-1 networks in the UK. The following table illustrates the segmentation of traffic per backhaul technology. Table 2: Traffic segmentation per backhaul technology Backhaul technology E1 Fibre (leased) Hybrid (E1/Ethernet DSL) Traffic percentage 20% 40% 40% Source: Informa Telecoms & Media The following graph illustrates the cost of transferring all data traffic through each of the backhaul technologies outlined above. 13 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Figure 6: Backhaul costs for TDM/leased fibre scenario Source: Informa Telecoms & Media The following chart illustrates the cost of backhaul if both fibre and hybrid technologies are replaced with PTMP microwave. Figure 7: Backhaul costs for TDM/PTMP microwave Source: Informa Telecoms & Media Finally, the following diagram illustrates a direct comparison between the two scenarios outlined above and a third scenario where 20% of traffic is backhauled through TDM infrastructure while the rest is transferred via PTP microwave. The figure below illustrates the cost comparison between PTMP and the other two prominent technologies, PTP and fibre (leasing). 14 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Figure 8: Cost savings of PTMP vs Hybrid compared with PTP vs Leased fibre Source: Informa Telecoms & Media Key takeaways Although both leasing fibre and hybrid backhaul technologies are considered cost-efficient, analysis shows that PTMP can provide better cost savings in backhaul, even compared to the widely established PTP microwave in Western Europe. Moreover, the operator owns the infrastructure rather than relying on a third party, making the use of PTMP ideal in Western Europe, where mobile broadband traffic is set to explode and create severe backhaul bottlenecks. The analysis here illustrates several attractive cost savings for the mobile broadband operator covered in this case study: • Cost savings of PTMP compared with TDM/fibre leasing for the total cost to transfer traffic amounts to US$497 million per year during 2010, increasing to US$2.8 billion per year for 2014 • PTMP is expected to offer cost savings of US$26 million during 2010 and this will increase to US$248 million during 2014 compared to PTP microwave. Although PTP microwave is considered the most cost-effective solution for densely populated urban areas, this analysis illustrates that PTMP is more cost efficient and can help mobile operators to reduce infrastructure costs while meeting mobile broadband capacity demands. The analysis presented here has been undertaken for an international Tier-1 operator running a mobile broadband network in the UK. Given that Tier-1 operator currently operate several networks in developed markets, cost savings of using PTMP in several market would amount to formidable OPEX savings in the 5-year period: • Assuming that mobile traffic across developed markets is similar, a Tier-1 mobile operator will be able to save up to US$10 billion in OPEX if PTMP is used rather than fibre. 15 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS • The first year of operating PTMP would save approximately US$2.5 billion, a considerable amount for any Tier-1 mobile operator using leased fibre to backhaul data traffic. Section D: Conclusions The following list outlines key conclusions that were an outcome of the research and calculations presented above: Capacity Requirements Continue to Rise – The data explosion is the result of upgraded networks, higher end handsets and flat rate data plans. With higher network speeds planned and new and more sophisticated handsets in the pipeline the situation is set to become more acute. E1 is Not a Viable Option - It is universally acknowledged that simply plugging in more E1 lines is not a sustainable strategy in the new data age. The operator pursuing this strategy will be put at a major operating cost disadvantage. Fibre is Still too Expensive to be Rolled Out in Europe – The cost economics of rolling out fibre mean that it is still too expensive to deploy widely. There will come a tipping point in about 8-10 years when costs have fallen and benefits of upgrading make sense. Mixed Technology Approach will be the Most Likely Strategy - Mobile operators do not have the luxury or the capital to upgrade their backhaul networks in one go. Instead they will use a mix of technologies with microwave likely to be widely deployed alongside legacy technologies. Over time fibre will become a larger part of the mix. PTMP is the Most Logical Short to Medium Term Choice for Mobile Backhaul – PTMP microwave is a relative newcomer to Western Europe but in terms of OPEX/CAPEX benefits performance gains it is the most attractive of the technologies on offer. According to the calculations in this white paper, PTMP can offer savings of up to US$5 billion over a 5-year period for a Tier-1 mobile operator with networks in 5 European developed markets. Informa estimates that PTMP can be deployed at 5% the cost of fibre and is 40% more cost effective to deploy compared with PTP microwave. Given that CAPEX is expected to reach US$2.6 billion during 2010 in Western Europe, cost savings from PTMP can become an important driver to reduce overall costs. 16 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Appendix Calculation Methodology Informa has formulated a comprehensive cost calculation tool, which uses a variety of input parameters to calculate the incremental annual cost of transferring data traffic for several backhaul technologies. The foundation of the backhaul calculations is Informa's traffic forecasts, which have been formulated by Informa's forecasting team and validated by an experienced audience, including infrastructure vendors and mobile operators. The following diagram illustrates the calculation methodology. Figure 9: Backhaul cost calculation methodology Source: Informa Telecoms & Media The parameters and assumptions used in the calculation model are outlined below for each backhaul technology. 17 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Backhaul technologies Several backhaul technologies are assessed in the calculation model and include: • E1 • Hybrid backhaul: E1 for voice, Ethernet over DSL for non-realtime data • Fibre (leasing) • Fibre (deploying) • Point-to-point microwave • Point-to-Multipoint microwave In order to be able to compare all backhaul technologies, a relevant metric has be to introduced, since leasing capacity usually amounts to OPEX while deploying infrastructure is referred to as CAPEX. In order to compare these two alternatives, the model calculates the annual cost of transporting data through backhaul: • In the case of leasing capacity (E1, fibre leasing and hybrid), annual charges are calculated according to the actual capacity leased. Leasing costs typically vary according to the state of the market, the leased contract size and competition from alternative backhaul providers. In these calculations, moderate leasing costs were introduced that are tailored to a competitive market, where copper and fibre bandwidth is freely available. For example, the cost of leasing a E1 line is calculated at US$200 as a moderate price point. On the other hand, more competitive markets (especially US), the cost of a E1 line may be significantly lower (some fixed incumbents are expected to be leasing E1 lines at sub-$100 prices in order to compete with fibre) while in developing markets prices are expected to be significantly higher due to lack of competition. • In the case of deploying hardware (PTP RF, PTMP RF, fibre deployment) a suitable depreciation period is chosen in order to calculate the annual cost of the hardware infrastructure and deployment. Infrastructure deployment typically amounts to CAPEX but network build-outs are financed using amortisation, spreading the cost of the infrastructure build-out over a fixed period of time. The depreciation period for each of the technologies is different and varies according to the overall cost of deployment, capacity and the overall penetration of the technology in different markets. The depreciation periods chosen for each technology were validated through secondary and primary research and mimic typical deployment scenarios for mobile networks in both developed and developing markets. The following sections present the calculation parameters and assumptions that were used to calculate the backhaul cost for each technology. E1 Although E1 lines are typically used for voice, there are several cases where other backhaul technologies are either not available or not cost-effective to be considered for data traffic. In these cases, mobile operators – particularly in developing markets – have to resort to incumbent fixed operators to lease backhaul bandwidth in the form of E1 lines. Even in developed markets, 18 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS it may not be possible to provide an alternative backhaul technology to sparsely populated base stations in rural environments, forcing mobile operators to resort to copper leased lines. The following table illustrates the parameters used for the calculation of E1 backhaul calculations. Table 3: Parameters for leasing E1 backhaul Parameter Value Data rate 2 Mbps Setup cost US$ 500 Monthly cost US$ 200 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media It is also possible for mobile operators to lease DS3 lines (an ultra high-speed copper leased line which can carry up to 45Mbps) but the cost per Mbps is roughly similar to that of a E1 line, and mobile operators hardly lease DS3 lines for single base station traffic. On the other hand, DS3 lines are used in central nodes or communication between MSC’s or as a failsafe solution when other backhaul technologies are not available. In this analysis, it is assumed that the cost per Mbps is similar for E1 and DS3 and only the former are considered in the analysis. Hybrid This technology combines the robust performance of a E1 line for transporting voice with the flexibility and cost efficiency of Ethernet over DSL. A typical case in developed markets, where mobile operators cannot lease several E1 lines for backhauling mobile broadband traffic but also do not wish to migrate from E1 to alternative technologies for voice. Although pseudowire and VoIP for transporting voice over packet networks are increasingly being considered, mobile operators are still reluctant to switch from TDM to IP. Hybrid technologies present a stepwise upgrade from TDM to packet networks and are considered both cost-effective and robust for mobile broadband traffic. The following table illustrates the parameters used for calculating hybrid backhaul costs. Table 4: Parameters for hybrid E1-Ethernet over DSL backhaul Parameter Value Data rate (E1) 2 Mbps Setup cost (E1) US$ 500 Monthly cost (E1) US$ 200 Data rate (DSL) 16 Mbps Setup cost (DSL) US$ 200 Monthly cost (DSL) US$ 100 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media The cost of an Ethernet over DSL backhaul link is usually double the retail price of a retail DSL connection due to the higher QoS guarantee for mobile operator use. In markets where copper is available and mobile broadband is booming, hybrid technologies are proving to be a very suitable 19 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS solution for networks that do not require the higher backhaul capacity and deploying a backhaul technology is not cost-efficient. Fibre (leasing) Contrary to E1 lines, fibre is increasingly being considered as a future-proof technology for mobile broadband backhaul in developed markets. Several incumbent fixed operators have already upgraded their transport network to fibre and are leasing parts of their network to mobile operators for mobile backhaul. BT’s 21CN is a notable example, where the UK’s incumbent operator has build out a nationwide fibre network that is currently being used by several mobile operators, including Vodafone, T-Mobile and Hutchinson 3UK. The high capacity offered by fibre makes it significantly more attractive than copper in developed markets. The following table illustrates the parameters used for calculating the cost of leasing fibre backhaul. Table 5: Parameters for leasing fibre backhaul Parameter Value Data rate 155 Mbps Setup cost US$ 6000 Monthly cost US$ 5000 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media Although fibre is the most effective technology, mobile operators currently aim to own their own backhaul rather than to depend on an external backhaul provider, whether this is fibre, copper or microwave. Leasing fibre is a competitive solution that is widely used throughout developed markets but it is not always available. In the US, fibre is estimated to be reaching approximately 20% of total base stations, thus hardly a nationwide technology. Fibre (deployment) Deploying fibre is the ultimate solution for meeting current and future backhaul needs, but in several cases, the cost of deployment is prohibitive and does not justify a large-area deployment if the required link capacity is below a few Gbps. Mobile operators that choose to deploy fibre themselves are typically subject to extremely high CAPEX since deploying the actual fibre network can cost up to US$150,000 per mile, depending on geography. As such, fibre deployment is not suited to all terrains, operators and markets but it does solve backhaul problems in the short- and long-term. The business model of fibre deployment may also be enhanced by leasing bandwidth to third parties, but this is a value added benefit rather than of primary importance when considering fibre deployment. The following table illustrates the calculation parameters used for deploying fibre for backhaul. 20 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Table 6: Parameters for deploying fibre backhaul Parameter Data rate Cost per mile Average link distance Depreciation period Value 155 Mbps US$ 150000 5 miles 15 years Source: Informa Telecoms & Media The cost of deploying fibre is largely variable and depends on several parameters. Mobile operators are generally not expected to deploy fibre by themselves due to the high cost of deployment unless backhaul requirements exceed a Gbps. If so, deploying fibre may be cost efficient compared to other backhaul technologies due to the extremely high cost of leasing or deploying backhaul capacity in the order of Gbps. In these cases, fibre is the only technology able to fulfil backhaul requirements. Although fibre can certainly reach higher data rates, mobile operators are likely to utilise only smaller parts of its bandwidth for individual links. As such, a moderate data rate of 155Mbps was used for the calculations, and a moderate deployment cost per mile of US$150,000 for the calculations. The calculation model also assumes that an average link distance for a typical fibre link is 15 miles – assuming a nationwide deployment of fibre and that every base station is linked to the MSC through fibre. A typical mobile network in the UK operates approximately 20 MSCs geographically dispersed throughout the country, while base stations are scattered throughout the country. Although several base stations are likely to be dispersed throughout rural locations, the majority of data-hungry base stations are likely to be densely distributed in urban areas. In these areas, the cost of deploying fibre may be prohibitive, as the cost of trenching densely populated urban areas is usually extremely high. The depreciation period for a fibre deployment is set at 15 years, much higher than radio and RF backhaul equipment. Point to Point Microwave Point to Point microwave (PTP) is a backhaul technology that is widely used in mobile, especially in developing markets where there is a lack of copper. The economics and capacity offered by typical PTP microwave solutions is sufficient to cover mobile broadband needs. Moreover, several PTP vendors have been advancing in terms of hardware efficiency to offer several Gbps in short distances. Microwave Ethernet is also becoming a de facto standard in several markets where other backhaul solutions are either not cost efficient or the mobile operators chooses to own the infrastructure rather than lease bandwidth from a third party. The following table illustrates the parameters used for the PTP microwave calculations. 21 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS Table 7: Parameters for deploying PTP microwave Parameter Data rate Upfront cost Antenna cost Installation cost Licence cost Depreciation period Value 100 Mbps US$ 10,000 US$ 5,000 US$ 5,000 US$ 2,000 7-8 years Source: Informa Telecoms & Media The depreciation period for PTP RF is reported to be approximately 7-8 years for typical RF links while mobile operators deploy 100Mbps links for mobile broadband applications. Point to Multipoint Microwave In Point to Multipoint microwave (PTMP), several base stations connect to a centralised node – often referred to as the hub – rather than to each other for connectivity. By doing so, the introduction of PTMP offers several advantages over PTP, including lower costs, better use of spectrum. PTMP microwave is particularly suited for data hungry areas, including densely populated urban areas where mobile broadband subscriptions are popular. The following table illustrates the cost considered for PTMP microwave in the calculation tool, where a per link price is calculated for the upfront cost based on a multi-link PTMP system. Table 8: Parameters for deploying PTMP microwave Parameter Data rate Links per sector Upfront cost Antenna cost Installation cost Licence cost Depreciation period Value 150 Mbps 1 US$ 5,000 Included in upfront cost US$ 2,000 US$ 2,000 7-8 years Source: Informa Telecoms & Media Although PTMP allows base stations to communicate with a central node, our analysis takes a single PTMP link into account in order to satisfy the calculation criteria and make PTMP comparable with other technologies. However, the benefit of PTMP will be accentuated when several links are introduced where statistical multiplexing improves efficiency further. The cost of deploying PTMP microwave is lower than PTP microwave, since RF equipment for the majority of base stations are typically lower footprint and cost while the deployment cost is significantly lower per link. The depreciation period is typically similar to PTP RF, i.e. 7-8 years. Assumptions The following assumptions have been made to perform the calculation and comparison between backhaul technologies. 22 WHITE PAPER – LAST MILE BACKHAUL OPTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE OPERATORS 1. Every link considered in this analysis is considered to be fully utilised. Although this is not a typical real-life scenario, the calculations illustrated the effective cost of transferring all data in a mobile broadband network via a certain backhaul technology. It is likely that a larger number of smaller links may be deployed for several sites (rather than the high-speed links considered above), but it is assumed that the cost per Mbps is similar regardless of the bandwidth for each technology. 2. An annual price decline of 10% is considered for leasing bandwidth, including copper and fibre. 3. Only data traffic is considered while voice is carried over traditional TDM infrastructure. Apart from a few mobile operators that have deployed advanced all-IP networks and are converting voice to VoIP at the base station, the majority of mobile operators still resort to TDM for transporting voice to the core network. 23