R Winning the BRIC Auto Markets Achieving Deep Localization in Brazil, Russia, India, and China The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting firm and the world’s leading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients in all sectors and regions to identify their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform their businesses. Our customized approach combines deep insight into the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable competitive advantage, build more capable organizations, and secure lasting results. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with 68 offices in 39 countries. For more information, please visit www.bcg.com. Winning the BRIC Auto Markets Achieving Deep Localization in Brazil, Russia, India, and China Nikolaus S. Lang Stefan Mauerer With regional contributions by Marcos Aguiar (Brazil) Ewald Kreid (Russia) Arindam Bhattacharya (India) Christoph Nettesheim (China) January 2010 bcg.com © The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. 2010. All rights reserved. For information or permission to reprint, please contact BCG at: E-mail: bcg-info@bcg.com Fax: +1 617 850 3901, attention BCG/Permissions Mail: BCG/Permissions The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. One Beacon Street Boston, MA 02108 USA Contents Executive Summary 4 Localizing in the BRIC Markets 6 Diverse Market Size, Growth, and Structures 6 Varying Degrees of Localization 8 Taking a Close Look at the BRIC Markets 11 Brazil 11 Russia 15 India 20 China 24 Prioritizing Investments Across the BRIC Markets 31 Formulating a Cross-BRIC Strategy 33 Evaluating Current Localization Profiles 33 Developing an Optimal Localization Profile 35 Six Key Lessons from the BRIC Markets 40 For Further Reading 41 Note to the Reader 42 W BRIC A M Executive Summary F or the next decade, the future of the automotive industry lies in the BRIC countries. Together, Brazil, Russia, India, and China will account for some 30 percent of world auto sales in 2014—while also offering significant opportunities for cost-effective R&D, sourcing, and manufacturing. Yet, although virtually all multinational automotive OEMs and suppliers are now conducting operations in the BRIC countries, they are not fully capturing those markets’ strategic potential. Why is that? And what should auto companies be doing differently? In this report, the second in our series on capturing global advantage in the automotive industry,1 we examine the strategies employed by leading OEMs and suppliers in localizing their R&D, sourcing, manufacturing, and sales in the BRIC countries. Specifically, we analyze the degree of localization of 49 OEMs and suppliers in each BRIC country for each function, compare localization across the BRIC countries, assess the future development of these markets, compare local capabilities and resources, identify particularly promising combinations of functions and countries, and define numerous best practices that can help automotive OEMs and suppliers operate effectively in the BRIC countries. Industry participants can use the observations presented in this report to develop new localization strategies for individual BRIC countries, refine existing strategies, design an overall cross-BRIC strategy, and profit from other companies’ experiences. The analyses and best practices presented here, while focusing on the BRIC countries, are applicable also to other rapidly developing economies. Auto markets in three of the four BRIC countries have strongly outperformed triad markets (Europe, Japan, and North America) during the crisis—and will continue their strong growth. ◊ While the economic crisis plunged many of the world’s automotive markets into free fall, markets in the BRIC countries were generally less affected and now offer prospects for exceptional growth. ◊ Whereas auto sales in the most developed markets will grow only moderately from year-end 2009 through 2014, at an average rate of some 2 percent per year, sales in the BRIC countries will grow at rates ranging from 3 to 15 percent per year, to end up accounting for some 30 percent of the global auto market in 2014. Auto companies are not fully realizing the strategic potential of the BRIC countries as locations for conducting R&D, sourcing, manufacturing, and sales. ◊ Although the BRIC countries offer advantageous conditions for conducting R&D, sourcing, manufacturing, and sales, less than 10 percent of leading automotive OEMs and suppliers are deeply localized in all four countries. ◊ This is not to say that more localization in a particular country is necessarily better than less, or that all automotive companies should localize all their operations in all four BRIC countries. Nonetheless, it is clear that there is considerable room for deeper—and more profitable—localization. 1. Our first report in the series was Winning the Localization Game: How Multinational Automotive OEMs and Suppliers Are Realizing the Strategic Potential of China and India, BCG report, January 2008. T B C G ◊ Companies that are localized are oen operating in ways that are less than optimal. Some 55 percent of foreign automotive companies’ R&D centers in China and India, and 30 percent of those in Brazil, are “engineering nuclei” that have little or no autonomy from global R&D centers and only low levels of project responsibility. In sourcing, volumes remain low: foreign OEMs’ sourcing from China, for example, typically averages just 1 to 5 percent of their overall sourcing. And in manufacturing, companies are generally paying a premium of 5 to 15 percent to manufacture in the BRIC countries, mainly because of diseconomies of scale and higher quality-assurance costs; only in Brazil do they actually save money on manufacturing. The four BRIC countries differ dramatically in market development and local capabilities, as well as consumer preferences. ◊ Brazil, China, and India are the BRIC countries’ safe bets. All three will continue growing through 2014. While Brazil will grow moderately at about 3 percent per year, China will grow at about 5 percent per year and India at about 9 percent per year. ◊ In contrast, Russia is the BRIC countries’ roller coaster. Sales dropped by an estimated 50 percent in 2009 but are expected to stabilize in 2010, achieving growth of some 15 percent per year through 2014. Russia’s development is hard to anticipate, however, because it will depend greatly on external factors, such as prices of raw materials. ◊ China will remain by far the largest of the four automotive markets, expanding its share of total BRIC sales volume from 53 percent in 2008 to 61 percent in 2014. ◊ Brazil is the most mature and stable of the BRIC markets and is likely to remain the second largest of the four through 2014. ◊ India will outpace both Brazil and China in growth throughout our forecast period, occupying third place in terms of market size until 2014, when Russia’s strong postcrisis recovery is likely to propel it to that rank, nudging India down to fourth place. W BRIC A M ◊ Companies must understand that there is no standard BRIC car: Brazilian consumers favor sporty hatchbacks, Russians prefer Western sedans and sport-utility vehicles without visible local adaptations, Indians seek ultra-low-cost minicars, and the Chinese enjoy affordable luxury-style sedans with flair. Our recommendations to auto companies fall under three general headings: ◊ In terms of country strategies, make China the cornerstone of any BRIC strategy, strengthen the company’s presence in Brazil and India, and invest selectively in Russia with a view to its long-term potential. ◊ Until each BRIC country provides enough scale to justify completely individualized products, adapt standard platforms significantly to meet local requirements, and engage local partners as needed to help develop appropriate local sales-and-marketing concepts. ◊ Expand sales networks in all four BRIC countries and, depending on the company’s capabilities and prospects, invest selectively in particular countries to increase local R&D, sourcing, and manufacturing where those activities are most advantaged. About the Authors Nikolaus S. Lang is a partner and managing director in the Munich office of The Boston Consulting Group; you may contact him by e-mail at lang.nikolaus@bcg.com. Stefan Mauerer is a project leader in the firm’s Munich office; you may contact him by e-mail at mauerer. stefan@bcg.com. Regional contributors: Marcos Aguiar (Brazil) is a senior partner and managing director in BCG’s São Paulo office; you may contact him by e-mail at aguiar.marcos@bcg. com. Arindam Bhattacharya (India) is a partner and managing director in the firm’s New Delhi office; you may contact him by e-mail at bhattacharya.arindam@ bcg.com. Ewald Kreid (Russia) is a partner and managing director in BCG’s Moscow office; you may contact him by e-mail at kreid.ewald@bcg.com. Christoph Nettesheim (China) is a senior partner and managing director in the firm’s Beijing office; you may contact him by e-mail at nettesheim.christoph@bcg.com. Localizing in the BRIC Markets T he world’s leading automotive OEMs and tier 1 suppliers, facing stagnating or declining sales at home in the triad markets (Europe, Japan, and North America), are turning their attention to the BRIC countries. Auto markets in other rapidly developing economies (RDEs) in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are either stagnant or still relatively small. In contrast, Brazil, China, and India are showing above-average resistance to the current economic crisis. All three markets have grown, and together with Russia they will achieve exceptional growth through 2014. (See Exhibit 1.) Specifically, the four BRIC countries together will provide approximately 30 percent of global automotive sales in 2014. To capture that growth, automotive companies must be present in each BRIC market, selling vehicles that local consumers want to buy. Most leading OEMs and tier 1 suppliers have localized at least some of their R&D, sourcing, manufacturing, and sales in the BRIC countries. Many of these companies have attempted to standardize their products, processes, and localization approaches across the BRIC countries, on the assumption that standardization would ensure a cost-effective market presence. However, in view of these markets’ highly diverse capabilities and requirements, companies should take differentiated approaches to them in order to realize the full value of localization. Diverse Market Size, Growth, and Structures The four BRIC automotive markets have developed— and will continue developing—quite differently. (See Exhibit 2.) During the current financial crisis, China’s market has achieved strong sales growth, while markets in Brazil and India have also continued growing. All three will continue to grow through 2014. The Russian market, in contrast, will achieve very high recovery rates aer having contracted by approximately 50 percent in 2009. However, forecasts for Russia must be viewed with some caution because of the Russian market’s strong dependence on the prices of raw materials, including oil and gas. Of the four markets, Brazil’s will likely be the most stable, with comparatively slow postcrisis growth through 2014; Brazil has already overtaken Russia to rank as the second largest of the four markets and will retain that rank throughout our forecast period. India’s market will show the second-highest growth rates, outpacing both Brazil and China; however, as it is growing from a relatively small base, it will remain third in rank through 2013 and will then be surpassed by the Russian market in 2014. And China’s massive market, bullish in 2009, will likely experience a slowdown in sales growth from 2010 on, as government incentives end, but will nonetheless expand its share of BRIC sales volume from 53 percent in 2008 to 61 percent in 2014. (See Exhibit 3.) Aer 2014, the Russian market will grow more moderately. In contrast, India’s market will continue to boom and will likely become the second largest of the BRIC markets by year-end 2018, followed by Russia and then Brazil. Like market size and growth, market structures also vary across the BRIC countries. While imports and vehicles made by localized foreign OEMs will continue to account for virtually the entire Brazilian market over the forecast period, local OEMs will likely gain market share in China and India. The market share of imported vehicles will stay relatively stable in Brazil, China, and India and will decline significantly in Russia, partly because of Russia’s T B C G Exhibit 1. The BRIC Automotive Markets Will Grow Strongly Through 2014... Automotive marketa (millions of units) 90 The BRIC markets will drive 31 percent of world growth through 2014 78–87 80 70 60 70 –12 62 15 While the world market shrank, the BRIC markets grew 50 40 30 12–17 4 23–27 4–8 19 55–60 55 43 20 10 0 World market, 2007 BRIC markets’ gain, b 2007–2009 Rest of world market’s loss, 2007–2009b World market, 2009b BRIC markets’ gain, 2009b–2014b Rest of world market’s gain, 2009b–2014b World market, 2014b Rest of world BRIC Sources: IHS Global Insight, November 2009; BCG analysis. a Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 3.5 tons. b Estimates. Exhibit 2. ...But Growth Patterns Will Differ Among the Four Markets Estimated Estimated performance CAGR 2008–2009 2009–2014 (%) (%) Sales indexa (2008 = 100) 200 180 China India 42 13 5 9 Brazil 11 3 Russia –48 15 160 140 120 100 80 60 0 2008 b 2009 b 2010 b 2011 b 2012 2013 b b 2014 Sources: IHS Global Insight, November 2009; Economist Intelligence Unit, November 2009; BCG analysis. a Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 3.5 tons. b Estimates. W BRIC A M Exhibit 3. China’s Automotive Market Will Continue to Dwarf Other BRIC Markets in 2014 2008 Salesa (millions of units) Estimated 2014 Salesa (millions of units) Total: 16.1 million units <0.1 Local OEMs’ vehicles <0.1 0.5 0.8 4.2 0.6 2.3 Localized foreign OEMs’ vehicles 2.9 1.4 b 2.0 1.2 b 4.1 Imports 0.6 1.0 8.4 Local OEMs’ vehicles Localized foreign OEMs’ vehicles Total: 24.9 million units 1.1 0.6 Imports 0.4 Brazil 2.7 6.6 1.6 0.3 China 8.6 <0.1 India Russia 3.0 1.7 Brazil 3.5 0.3 China 15.3 <0.1 India Russia 3.0 3.1 Sources: IHS Global Insight, November 2009; Economist Intelligence Unit; BCG analysis. a Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 3.5 tons. b Including Maruti. negative incentives against imports, which were instituted at the beginning of the 2008–2009 downturn, but principally because foreign OEMs will expand their local production capacity. In the context of the BRIC countries’ varied market size, growth, and structures, how are leading automotive OEMs and suppliers participating in these markets? The answer is that they have been entering them in a number of ways, achieving varying degrees of localization, and learning many valuable lessons along the way. Varying Degrees of Localization Assessing the degree to which foreign companies are localized in a given country or region is far from simple. In Winning the Localization Game, our earlier report in this series, we introduced the BCG localization framework, which lays out the typical progression of automotive OEMs and suppliers as they become increasingly localized in an RDE market. (See Exhibit 4.) In general, companies localizing in RDEs (including the BRIC countries) occupy one of five localization stages: ◊ Home players serve the local market only by exporting low volumes from their home bases, which are generally in Europe, Japan, or North America ◊ Exporters have a minor presence in the local market but keep all localized functions under tight control from their headquarters ◊ Explorers have localized some independent functions in the RDE, but their headquarters still have a strong impact on local strategies ◊ Settlers have localized all their core functions in the RDE and have empowered them to act relatively independently from headquarters ◊ Global players give their operations in the RDE not only considerable autonomy but also global responsibility for particular functions and products—for example, making a given BRIC country the sole production hub for a product line sold globally It should be noted that a company’s various functions— R&D, manufacturing, sourcing, and sales—can occupy T B C G Exhibit 4. Companies Typically Move Through Five Stages of Localization Home players Functions in the value chain Characteristics Exporters Explorers Settlers Global players Serve the BRIC markets only through lowvolume exports Minor presence in the BRIC markets; key functions under tight control from headquarters Some independent presence in some functions; headquarters still exert strong impact on development Fully independent from headquarters; all key functions managed by local staff and organization Fully independent from headquarters, with global responsibility for some or all functions No presence No presence; vehicles exported with only minor adaptations Conduct minor local R&D activities Conduct major local R&D activities Maintain major R&D centers with global responsibility No presence Source simple parts Source submodules Source a wide array of products Conduct full-scale sourcing to serve the company worldwide No presence CKD production or small local production1 Operate one or two full-scale plants Operate several plants Operate several large plants for local and export markets Low-volume exports Only key functions localized Sales network serves tier 1 and tier 2 cities Sales network serves first- to fihtier cities Sales department also manages exports R&D Sourcing Manufacturing Sales Source: BCG analysis. 1 CKD = completely knocked down. different stages of localization in different countries or even within the same country. A company can be described as having attained “deep localization” in one or more of its functions when it has localized those functions to the settler or global player stage. We identified the degree of localization of all 49 top international automotive OEMs and suppliers in the BRIC markets, and then combined those scores to show overall patterns of localization. (See Exhibit 5.) Interestingly, none of the companies have reached the highest level of localization across all four markets. Each company’s pattern of localization varies significantly across the BRIC countries and across functions within each country. Typically, companies’ sales and manufacturing functions are more localized than their sourcing, and far more so than their R&D. The few exceptions to this general rule reflect distinctive business models. For example, a European power-train-engineering company has localized its R&D and sales in China to a greater extent than its sourcing and manufacturing because this company is partnering with local Chinese OEMs in the development of their power-train technology. W BRIC A M Looking country by country at the levels of localization that foreign auto companies have achieved, we again see distinctive patterns: ◊ China shows the highest levels of localization, thanks to the vast size of its current and potential market ◊ Brazil follows closely aer China, in part because foreign OEMs have such a long-established presence there ◊ India trails China and Brazil in the degree of foreign auto companies’ localization, mostly because its relatively small market size and specific requirements pose challenges for industry participants ◊ Russia has the lowest level of localization to date, partly because the international automotive industry began entering the Russian market even later than it entered India As these major differences among BRIC markets suggest, auto companies cannot succeed in them by offering one Exhibit 5. Foreign Automotive Companies Are Most Deeply Localized in China and Brazil Average degrees of localization in each country Home players Exporters Explorers Settlers Global players R&D Sourcing Manufacturing Sales Russia India China Brazil Sources: Corporate information; company interviews; BCG localization database; BCG analysis. Note: Forty-nine companies were evaluated. size-fits-all BRIC products, processes, or approaches. Nonetheless, companies are creating significant value by pursuing cross-BRIC learning, synergies, sharing of best practices, and investments—while also respecting the unique characteristics of each market. In the following section, we look at Brazil, Russia, India, and China individually. T B C G Taking a Close Look at the BRIC Markets T he four BRIC countries differ dramatically in their market development and local capabilities, as well as in consumer preferences. Each offers a unique constellation of challenges and opportunities for automotive companies. Brazil The Brazilian automotive market can be considered the most mature and stable of the four BRIC markets and the front-runner in terms of auto companies’ localization. In 1921, the Ford Motor Company began producing its Model T there. Later, as in many European countries, Volkswagen introduced its Beetle to spearhead the country’s motorization, winning a peak market share of close to 80 percent in the late 1960s. The Brazilian auto market was dominated by the “first wave” OEMs—Fiat, Ford, General Motors, and Volkswagen—through the 1980s. Subsequently, a second wave brought companies such as Daimler, Honda, Hyundai, Land Rover, Mitsubishi, PSA, Renault, and Toyota into the market. Thanks to this long history, Brazil has a relatively stable automotive market, in which most OEMs and suppliers are localized to a high degree. This is not to deny that there has been considerable market volatility in recent years, with annual sales expanding and contracting by as much as some 30 percent. Nonetheless, of the four BRIC automotive markets, Brazil’s is now the most mature and very likely will remain so throughout our forecast period. We expect sales to climb by some 5 percent in 2010, aer having grown by a strong 10 percent in 2009, and then to stabilize at around 2 percent per year through 2014. (See Exhibit 6.) Aer 2014, we expect the Brazilian market to achieve continuous moderate growth but to be overtaken eventually by the W BRIC A M faster-growing Indian and Russian markets, which will rank second and third among the BRIC markets, respectively, in 2018. Brazil’s market structure differs significantly from those of the three other BRIC countries. Unlike China, India, and Russia, Brazil did not block international automotive OEMs from gaining access to the country’s auto market during the early decades of the industry’s development. Therefore, the presence of highly competitive foreign companies has historically hindered the establishment of local automotive OEMs. Apart from a few small-volume niche players—including Agrale and Marcopolo—the Brazilian auto market belongs entirely to foreign OEMs. We expect distribution of market shares to remain stable throughout our forecast period. Manufacturing is concentrated in the southern part of the country, in four main automotive clusters, as shown in Exhibit 6. Recently, several automakers have also opened factories outside these clusters. Examples include Ford’s factory in Camaçari, Hyundai’s in Anápolis, and Mitsubishi’s in Catalão. Within these clusters—and beyond them—the overall degree of localization is high. The four foreign OEMs that arrived in the first wave are far ahead of their competitors, having achieved deep localization in all four major functions. These companies typically have local R&D centers with international reach, operate several production plants for both local sales and export, and manage broad sales networks not only in the largest cities but also in third- to fih-tier cities, such as Lagarto, Rodonopolis, and Santarém. Such OEMs have established significant footprints. For example, Volkswagen is operating four large plants in Brazil—in São Bernardo do Campo, São Carlos, Taubaté, and Exhibit 6. Brazil’s Automotive Market Will Grow Moderately Through 2014 Moderate growth aer a strong 2009 Currently four main production clusters (selected examples) OEM plants: 19 Tier 1 plants: ~50 3% per year Sales volumea (millions) Local OEMs’ vehicles 2.7 <1% ~3.0 <1% Minas Gerais OEMs: Daimler, Fiat, Iveco Suppliers: Delphi, Magneti Marelli ~3.5 <1% São Paulo OEMs: Ford, General Motors, Honda, Nissan, PSA Peugeot Citroën, Renault, Toyota, Volkswagen Suppliers: Bosch, Bridgestone, Delphi, Goodyear, Magneti Marelli, Mahle, Pirelli, TRW, Valeo 83% Localized foreign OEMs’ vehicles Imports 81% 86% 14% 2008 19% 17% 2009b 2014b Rio Grande do Sul OEMs: Agrale, General Motors, Marcopolo, Navistar Suppliers: Delphi, Pirelli, Valeo Paraná OEMs: Supplier: General Motors, Nissan, Renault, Volkswagen, Volvo Delphi Sources: IHS Global Insight, November 2009; Economist Intelligence Unit; corporate information; company interviews; companies’ annual reports and press releases; BCG analysis. Note: Includes only OEMs and international suppliers with significant production footprints in Brazil. a Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 3.5 tons. b Estimates. São José dos Pinhais. And Fiat’s plant in Betim, with a capacity of 700,000 units, is not only the company’s largest but one of the industry’s five largest in the world. Like these leading OEMs, the top suppliers in Brazil have very advanced localization profiles, and each top supplier typically supplies most of the OEMs. In contrast to the front-runners, however, most other foreign OEMs and suppliers are pursuing little or no R&D activities in Brazil. In general, their sourcing activities are limited to buying submodules for their international needs. Their plants tend to be relatively small, and their dealers serve mainly first- and second-tier cities, such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belém, and Cuiabá. On average, then, the international automotive industry in Brazil has attained a medium level of localization in R&D, manufacturing, and sourcing, and an advanced level in sales. We discuss these four functions individually below. R&D In localizing R&D to RDEs, companies typically set up four kinds of R&D centers: offshore units, engineering nuclei, local R&D hubs, and centers of competence. (See the sidebar “Four Roles for Localized R&D Centers.”) In Brazil, specifically, companies can benefit from the more than 40,000 well-trained engineers who graduate each year, as well as from Brazil’s large population of experienced engineers who have acquired deep familiarity with the automotive industry over decades. Drawing on these strengths, foreign auto companies in Brazil maintain three of the four types of R&D centers: T B C G Four Roles for Localized R&D Centers R&D centers in the BRIC countries—and in other RDEs— typically play one of four roles. (See the exhibit below.) ◊ Offshore Unit. This kind of R&D center takes advantage of low local factor costs to develop specific contents for products; typical examples include soware programming and electronics engineering. Offshore units have local autonomy in executing projects and managing local human resources; however, the company’s R&D headquarters defines their processes, standards, and interfaces and monitors the quality of their work. ◊ Engineering Nucleus. This kind of center adapts worldwide products to local requirements; an example would be designing exterior body adaptations to a global model to make it more appealing for the Chinese market. Engineering nuclei have local autonomy in exploring customer needs and managing day-to-day projects. The company’s R&D headquarters ensures that these units have appropriate capabilities and arranges international exchanges of best practices and R&D staff. ◊ Local R&D Hub. A local R&D hub develops products for the local market; for example, developing flex-fuel applications for Brazilian customers. Local R&D hubs have autonomy in defining business cases and product specifications; the company’s R&D headquarters acts as a consultant and facilitates exchanges of best practices. ◊ Center of Competence. This kind of center has global leadership responsibility for developing products or technologies for worldwide use. An example might be developing a small, low-cost SUV for markets around the globe. The company’s R&D headquarters ensures each center’s integration into the company’s global network. It is generally not advisable for a given R&D center to try to play more than one of these roles at the same time. Often, a localized R&D center in an RDE will progress from the first, simplest role through the subsequent roles and eventually evolve into a center of competence. Localized R&D Centers in RDEs Are of Four Types Share of OEMs and suppliers operating in each type of R&D setup High Local R&D hub Center of competence 50% 25% 20% 10% 1 10% 5% 1 NA Brazil China India Russia NA Brazil China India Russia Engineering nucleus Offshore unit Autonomy from global R&D center 55% 55% 30% 30% NA1 Brazil China India Russia 10% 1 0% NA Brazil China India Russia Low Local Project responsibility Global Sources: Company interviews; BCG analysis. Note: Total number of OEMs and suppliers interviewed = 49. Most were interviewed in all four BRIC countries. 1 NA = not applicable. W BRIC A M ◊ Engineering Nuclei. Thirty percent of the industry’s R&D centers focus on adapting (also referred to as “tropicalizing”) the company’s worldwide products to local requirements under tight control from the company’s R&D headquarters. Example: A European supplier of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems uses its 55 engineers and 20 support staff to build prototypes and operate testing facilities to adapt its products to specific local conditions, including high heat and humidity. ◊ Local R&D Hubs. Half of the industry’s local R&D centers not only adapt worldwide products but also develop products to meet the needs of Brazilian consumers. Example: A North American supplier of engine and transmission components used a local R&D hub to develop a low-cost torque control for small front-wheel-drive cars. ◊ Centers of Competence. Only 20 percent of the industry’s Brazilian R&D centers have full responsibility for developing products and technologies for both local and global use. Example: Foreign OEMs’ and suppliers’ local R&D centers have been given global responsibility for low-cost four-wheel-drive technology, small multipurpose vehicles (MPVs), and sporty, ultra-low-cost hatchbacks. Contributing to the potential value of conducting R&D in Brazil is local market demand for vehicles and technolo- gies that are also attractive for worldwide use, such as ultra-low-cost small cars and flex-fuel. Familiarity with R&D projects in these areas is positioning Brazilian R&D centers to serve global markets as well. (See Exhibit 7.) Sourcing International OEMs’ high volume of production in Brazil provides sufficient scale to justify the local production of some 80 percent of the parts used, mostly by international suppliers with generally high levels of quality and productivity. However, auto companies do not yet source from Brazil a significant percentage of the parts used in their global operations. Brazil exported just $9.1 billion worth of parts in 2008—far less than China’s $30 billion. Some OEMs operating in Brazil are sourcing from lowercost suppliers in other Latin American countries or even in China. For example, one OEM has launched a China sourcing strategy for its Brazilian production in order to profit from favorable exchange rates between the Brazilian real and the Chinese renminbi. It plans to source 50,000 tires and 15,000 light wheels from China, where it manufactures products similar to the ones it makes in Brazil. Manufacturing As mentioned above, Brazil is the only BRIC country in which production costs are lower than those in the triad markets—and far lower than those in the three other BRIC countries. Our interview partners confirmed that Exhibit 7. R&D Hubs in Brazil Excel in Applications for Global Market Niches Global niches Flex-fuel technologies Low-cost off-road technology Small cars and engines Local low-cost materials Examples Contributing circumstances ◊ Electronic control units ◊ Flex start systems Domestic sugar-cane ethanol production and government energy policies led to the development of key expertise in flex-fuel engines and related power trains ◊ Torque-controlling differentials Rough local road conditions, the popularity of off-road vehicles and vehicle styling, and the local focus on affordability led to the development of competencies in low-cost off-road technology ◊ 1.0-liter engines The dominant share of the 1.0-liter “popular” car led to the development of key competencies and specialization in the design of B-segment cars and small, efficient engines ◊ Low-cost plastics, alloys, and textiles The focus on affordability, together with consumer preferences and local climate conditions, led to specialization in less expensive materials that are better adapted to local use Sources: Company interviews; BCG analysis. T B C G OEMs Are Targeting Market Niches in Brazil One sign that a market is maturing is that OEMs begin to seek market “white spaces”—niches of previously unidentified consumer demand for specific products and features—and introduce low-volume models designed to meet that demand. Over the past 15 years, OEMs in Brazil have targeted several such niches. For example: ◊ Fiat gained market leadership in entry-level cars with the ultra-low-cost Uno/Mille ◊ Japanese OEMs successfully introduced midsize sedans, including the Honda Civic and the Toyota Corolla Brazil’s cost advantage rests on the market’s relatively large scale of production, reliable product quality, and largely manual performance of processes not critical to quality. Furthermore, in response to past market volatility, the Brazilian industry has developed a specific local competence: production flexibility. Brazilian plants are now generally more flexible than plants in the triad markets. One interview partner—a U.S. supplier—told us: “High spending on robotics is not justifiable. The core of the business is balancing the tradeoffs between automation and flexible manual labor.” Nonetheless, despite Brazil’s attractive manufacturing cost position, most automotive production is dedicated to the domestic market. Only 18 percent of vehicles manufactured in Brazil are exported, of which some 85 percent go to other Latin American markets owing to production strategies focusing on these countries. Exports outside Latin America are low largely because of Brazil’s relatively volatile currency, its only partially developed export infrastructure, its bureaucratic customs procedures, and its complex taxation system, which discourages exports. Sales The first-wave OEMs have now built up extensive sales networks with wide regional coverage and a strong presence even in third- to fih-tier cities. The sales networks of OEMs that began operating in Brazil more recently are less extensive. The cars being sold by the first-wave OEMs and by some later-wave OEMs reflect the highest degree of product adW BRIC A M ◊ Ford attacked the unexplored niche for small, low-cost SUVs with the EcoSport ◊ GM successfully created the small-MPV market with the Chevrolet Meriva Thanks to these and other pioneering forays into niche markets, the market share of so-called white-space vehicles swelled from 0.2 percent in 1996 to 22 percent in 2008. aptation to local requirements among the BRIC countries. For instance, most OEMs offer a version of the carro popular—a small, inexpensive hatchback with a one-liter engine. Examples include the Chevrolet Celta, the Fiat Palio, and the Volkswagen Gol. The largest OEMs offer more than one carro popular. As is typical in maturing markets, OEMs in Brazil have begun to identify and target market niches. (See the sidebar “OEMs Are Targeting Market Niches in Brazil.”) In contrast to new-car sales, used-car and aer-sales networks are considerably less developed in Brazil than in the triad markets. However, OEM pioneers in Brazil’s carfinancing market have reached a high level of maturity. One OEM has developed a car-financing offering that covers a wide range of both automotive and unrelated products; some of its offerings involve partners. While most suppliers in Brazil serve multiple OEMs, some have not yet managed to level out demand among their various OEM clients. Because they are overly dependent on one or a few companies, they are not yet realizing the full potential of the Brazilian market. However, the leading suppliers are successfully serving most or all OEMs and have started offering parts and systems designed specifically to meet local requirements for low cost and the ruggedness to withstand rough terrain. Russia In contrast to Brazil, with its long experience of hosting international automotive companies, Russia has a history of solely domestic production. Most of that production has emanated from what was once the world’s largest auto factory, the AvtoVAZ (Lada) plant in Togliatti. The plant opened in 1969, initially producing a single model—the Lada 2101—which was based on the Fiat 124. From the mid-1970s through the mid-1980s, the market for Lada vehicles exceeded 1 million units per year; thereaer it stagnated and fell to between 600,000 and 1 million units per year until the beginning of this century. With the deregulation of the Russian automotive market in the late 1990s, international companies began exporting into the Russian market, some OEMs and suppliers began localizing sales there, and sales volumes resumed growing, driven almost entirely by imports and localized foreign companies. Russian carmakers were able to maintain their production volumes, but as the market expanded, they lost share to the newly arrived outsiders. Among the first to begin localizing operations in Russia were Ford, GM, Hyundai, and Renault; others soon followed. Because of Russia’s relatively short history as an international automotive market, it is more volatile than the other BRIC markets and its future development is less predictable. It has also been hardest hit by the economic downturn. While auto sales in China skyrocketed by some 40 percent in 2009, and auto sales in Brazil and India grew strongly, sales in Russia dropped by approximately 50 percent. Even when the economy recovers, sales will attain 2008 levels only in 2014. (See Exhibit 8.) Meanwhile, as Russia’s market contracted in 2009, it fell to fourth place among the BRIC markets. It will likely remain there until 2014, when its strong postcrisis recovery Exhibit 8. The Russian Market’s Contraction Will Be Followed by a Strong Growth Surge Currently five main production clusters (selected examples) Shi away from imports 15% per year Sales volumea (millions) Local OEMs’ vehicles Localized foreign OEMs’ vehicles ~3.1 3.0 Kaliningrad OEMs: Avtotor, BMW, Chery, General Motors, Kia Supplier: Brisk 20% 28% 19% 44% ~1.5 36% Imports 54% 28% 36% 36% 2008 2009b b 2014 Greater Moscow and Kaluga OEMs: Mitsubishi, PSA Peugeot Citroën, Renault, Škoda, Volkswagen Suppliers: Continental, Hella, Magneti Marelli, Michelin OEM plants: Tier 1 plants: 13 23 Saint Petersburg OEMs: Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Nissan, Opel, Toyota Suppliers: Asahi Glass, Toyota Boshoku, Denso, Johnson Controls, Lear Nizhny Novgorod OEM: GAZ Suppliers: Benteler, Faurecia, Ficosa, Johnson Controls, Lear, Magna, Valeo Togliatti and Samara OEMs: AvtoVAZ, General Motors Suppliers: Bosch, Delphi, Federal Mogul, Johnson Controls, Tenneco, Woco Sources: IHS Global Insight, November 2009; Economist Intelligence Unit; press research; corporate information; company interviews; companies’ annual reports and press releases; BCG analysis. Note: Includes only OEMs and international suppliers with significant production footprints in Russia; also includes completely knocked down (CKD) and semi-knocked-down (SKD) production. a Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 3.5 tons. b Estimates. T B C G should propel it into third place, displacing India. Aer 2014, however, India’s market will outpace Russia’s, while Brazil’s will grow more slowly, so that by year-end 2018 the Russian market is likely to be smaller than China’s and India’s but larger than Brazil’s. Moreover, in Russia the downturn has brought a significant shi in market share between imports and local production. While localized foreign OEMs have been increasing their market shares considerably, the share of imports has been decreasing, for two main reasons: ◊ Local production has become much more attractive economically, given the devaluation of the ruble, the imposition of import barriers for used cars, and the increased duties on imported new cars ◊ International OEMs have increased their localized production volumes significantly, using existing plant capacity and expansions that had been planned before the downturn The indigenous Russian automotive industry is focused in two clusters, where some international suppliers have also localized, whereas the localized foreign OEMs and suppliers are focused in three main clusters, as shown in Exhibit 8. The international automotive industry overall is considerably less localized in Russia than in the other BRIC countries, and the focus of its localization is on manufacturing and sales. Most foreign companies have no local R&D activities in Russia and do not source there for either domestic or international purposes. In Russia, unlike in Brazil, the difference in localization between the average localized foreign automotive companies and the localization front-runners is comparatively small. For example, one of the first OEMs to have entered Russia—a company that now has R&D centers totaling more than 1,000 employees in Bangalore, São Paulo, and Shanghai—conducts no major R&D in Russia. The major distinction between front-runners and average industry participants, in terms of localization, is that the front-runners no longer do completely knocked down (CKD) production exclusively but have built large plants for full-fledged production; they have also extended their sales networks to include more of the smaller cities. The localized foreign suppliers, meanwhile, primarily serve localized foreign OEMs; only a few have begun cooperating with indigenous Russian OEMs. W BRIC A M R&D Although Russia graduates an impressive 400,000 engineers a year, and thus provides a large pool of qualified R&D talent, no international OEMs or suppliers have built up R&D centers in Russia to a significant scale. There are a number of reasons why they have not felt the need to do so: ◊ Russian consumers prefer triad-market vehicles. In the Russian market’s SUV and Western sedan segments, the slogan “Equal to the West” is an important selling point. Russians demand virtually the same models that are sold in Europe, Japan, and the United States and will not accept adapted versions. In the low-cost segment, international competitors have gained market share by selling low-cost models from other countries. ◊ Local engineers lack automotive R&D experience. Russia’s significant numbers of well-educated engineers are focusing on other industries, such as electronics and the military. Local OEMs have not provided a strong foundation for developing automotive experience; instead, they have focused their product-development activity on updating existing product designs. ◊ Engineers’ wages are rising. Engineers’ wages have been rising by approximately 20 percent per year; by 2008, they had reached fully half the level of wages in Western R&D centers. Sourcing Here, too, the international automotive industry is only slightly localized in Russia. Many OEMs still operate on a semi-knocked-down (SKD) or a CKD basis and import more than 80 percent of their components. Russian exports of automotive parts totaled just $1.7 billion in 2008—a very minor amount in the overall picture of global automotive sourcing. A major challenge to growing this percentage is that less than 5 percent of Russian suppliers meet international OEMs’ global sourcing policies and quality standards. Moreover, few international suppliers have entered Russia so far, mainly because low production volumes, together with an existing stock of vehicles that have short remaining life spans, combine to limit suppliers’ likely return on their investments. Those international suppliers that have localized in Russia produce mainly low-value-added products. For these reasons, most localized OEMs are struggling to meet Russia’s official requirement that they achieve 30 percent local content aer three years of operations. However, localizing sourcing in Russia could become easier as the country’s suppliers of raw materials increasingly meet international standards. (See the sidebar “Creating Conditions for Higher Local Content in Russia.”) nificantly, productivity was relatively low, and employee attrition was high. Today, however, with both wage levels and attrition rates declining, companies need to explore opportunities to replace costly automation with lowercost manual processes. Companies willing to take this approach can learn from best practices in Brazil, China, and India. To address the scale disadvantage by bundling volumes, one international OEM has developed a joint sourcing task force with a Russian OEM. The international OEM is introducing international quality standards and providing supplier development, while the Russian OEM is contributing broad knowledge of and access to the Russian supply base. An additional goal is to jointly attract new international suppliers to invest in Russia. Another way to address the cost issue is by adopting more flexible approaches to automotive manufacturing. As in Brazil, where historical market volatility led companies to develop special competence in flexible manufacturing, in Russia companies are beginning to hedge against fluctuating demand with highly flexible production systems. (See the sidebar “Addressing Volatility by Expanding the Model Range and Employing Flexible Production.”) Manufacturing Sales In manufacturing, as in R&D and sourcing, foreign automotive companies are still in relatively early stages of localization in Russia. Those that have set up production there are operating primarily in low-scale SKD or CKD modes. Currently, most of their Russian plants are subscale, leading to a significant cost disadvantage compared with triad markets. Most global OEMs are present in Russia. They have employed independent multibrand dealer networks to cover tier 1 and tier 2 cities, such as Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, and Samara, where the bulk of current demand is located. OEMs are now expanding into thirdto fih-tier cities, which are home to some 70 percent of the Russian population—and some 55 percent of the country’s income. These regions will increase their share of demand as incomes rise. A best-practice example in this market is a North American OEM that has located 35 percent of its more than 120 dealerships in third- to fihtier cities—almost as many as the 39 percent of its dealers that are in tier 1 cities. One factor driving high costs in Russia is that most foreign companies have duplicated their home-country production processes there, using large amounts of costly automation. Before the downturn, this approach made sense because the cost of skilled labor was increasing sig- Creating Conditions for Higher Local Content in Russia Despite Russia’s role as a net exporter of raw materials, OEMs making cars there still tend to rely on imported steel, chemicals, and other materials and parts. This could change soon. Local and international automotive suppliers are building up the infrastructure that will allow OEMs operating in Russia to reduce their dependence on imports. The goal is to encourage these OEMs to benefit from Russia’s cost advantages—and in turn benefit the economy—by buying locally. For example, to address the issue that the quality of Russian-produced steel has not been high enough for stamping body parts for foreign OEMs’ cars, Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works is opening a new plant especially designed to produce automotive steel. The quality of the steel should meet the standards of the entire Russian automotive industry. Similarly, to address the problem that it has not been possible to source polypropylene parts in Russia because of the absence of polyolephines (chemical elements that are essential to polypropylene production), a European petrochemical company has announced plans to open a plant that will produce polyolephines in Russia. T B C G Addressing Volatility by Expanding the Model Range and Employing Flexible Production In 2007, the Volkswagen Group opened its first production plant in Russia in Kaluga, near Moscow. The plant, operated by Volkswagen Group Rus, is part of the Volkswagen Group’s international expansion strategy in one of the world’s most important long-term growth markets. In the project’s first stage, the plant began assembling SKD kits in November 2007. As of late 2009, the plant had reached a capacity equivalent to 85,000 vehicles annually. To comply with Decree 166, which governs the share of local content of vehicles manufactured in Russia, Volkswa- Before Russia’s tax on imported used cars jumped to 30 percent in 2009, one Japanese OEM actively fostered its used-car imports into Russia. The company is now leveraging the resulting heightened brand awareness, positive brand image, and sales infrastructure—especially in remote areas—for its new-car sales. Some OEMs adjust their products to local requirements— for example, by outfitting them with “bad road” suspensions. However, Russia-specific adaptations are limited. This is partly because Russian consumers prefer cars very similar to those driven in Europe and the United States, gen Group Rus recently began full production using local content. In October 2009, 11 months ahead of schedule, it began employing the plant’s own body shop, paint shop, and assembly lines to manufacture the Volkswagen Tiguan and the Škoda Octavia. During 2010, the plant is expected to attain its maximum production capacity, equivalent to 150,000 vehicles annually. Volkswagen Group Rus intends to expand local production to add three more models, including a Volkswagen notchback especially developed for the Russian market. rather than those common in the other BRIC countries. As a consequence, the Russian market’s segmentation resembles that of the U.S. market. (See Exhibit 9.) International suppliers have been hesitant to enter Russia, largely because OEMs’ production volumes for each model are low, making potential supplier volumes subscale. Suppliers that have localized in Russia tend to focus mainly on simple, low-value-added products. The Russian market remains immature and volatile, in part because international companies entered the mar- Exhibit 9. Russian Preferences for SUVs and Sedans Resemble U.S. Preferences Hatchbacks, sedans, SUVs, and MPVs sold in 2008 (percentage of total sales) 100 7 80 10 11 21 26 17 32 9 8 60 66 49 40 60 60 46 52 20 18 23 China Russia 0 India Western Europe Brazil Hatchback markets Hatchbacks Sedans SUVs 6 United States Sedan markets MPVs Others Sources: IHS Global Insight, November 2009; BCG analysis. W BRIC A M ket so recently. But Russia offers considerable potential for localization, if only because it is starting from a small base. As India’s example shows, market stability can contribute to deep localization of the automotive industry. India For decades, India’s automotive market consisted almost entirely of vehicles produced domestically by Indian companies, using designs based closely on European models. Foreign automakers entered the Indian market only a little over a decade ago. Before they arrived, Indian consumers achieved automotive mobility largely by means of models such as the Hindustan Ambassador and the Premier Padmini, whose designs changed only slightly over the decades. Car production volumes grew from 19,000 in 1960 to 44,000 in 1983, then increased substantially aer the 1983 founding of Maruti, a joint venture between the Indian government and Suzuki. (Suzuki held a minority stake until 2002 and now holds a 54 percent stake, qualifying Maruti for inclusion in our analysis of localized foreign auto companies.) Aer the Indian government deregulated the automotive market, the growth in sales accelerated, sometimes reaching rates as high as 50 percent per year. Growth was driven primarily by the entry of foreign companies and by emerging local competitors, such as Tata Motors. That rapid growth is likely to continue. Despite some historical similarities between India’s automotive history and Russia’s, their markets are very different. India’s stricter import regulations, more distinctive consumer requirements, and less saturated market have positioned the Indian market for healthy growth. (See Exhibit 10.) Even during 2009, a particularly difficult year, sales grew by more than 10 percent; we expect that they will continue growing at approximately 9 percent per year through 2014—faster than either Brazil’s or China’s markets. Although the Russian market is likely to overtake the Indian market in 2014, thanks to its strong postcrisis recovery, we expect that by 2018 India will have surpassed both Russia and Brazil to become the second largest of the BRIC auto markets. Imported vehicles’ share of the national market is by far the smallest among the BRIC countries because of India’s significant barriers to market entry and Indian consumers’ exceptional price sensitivity. The Indian carmakers’ share of the market will increase from 30 percent in 2009 to 33 percent in 2014. The ability of local OEMs, such as Tata, to ensure that their vehicles perfectly meet Indian consumers’ demands for ultra-low-cost cars will drive this growth. In addition, foreign OEMs are planning to ramp up their production significantly and to launch less expensive vehicles in order to retain as much market share as possible. Currently, production takes place in India’s three main automotive clusters, as shown in Exhibit 10. Foreign automotive companies have already achieved, on average, a medium degree of localization in India in all four functions. However, the localization front-runners, such as Bosch, Hyundai, and Maruti, are far more localized than the rest of the foreign companies operating in the country. The front-runners have distinguished themselves from their competitors by adapting their products to local market requirements. They also establish strong local R&D hubs, which oen undertake soware development, among other projects. In addition, localization front-runners use local sourcing for much of their products’ contents; this includes sourcing some components (oen metal parts) for international use. They all engage in large-scale local production. Front-runner OEMs have extensive local sales networks, which oen include third- to fih-tier cities such as Dharmapuri, Godhra, and Secunderabad. Front-runner suppliers sell large shares of their production to local OEMs. However, the localization frontrunners are far from representative of all the foreign automotive companies operating in India. R&D With Indian universities graduating some 500,000 engineers a year, and wages well below those in the triad markets, one might expect that foreign automakers would choose to conduct large portions of their R&D in India. However, most foreign auto companies operating in India have not localized their R&D there significantly. Although many have established R&D centers in India, some 30 percent of those centers are “offshore units,” typically developing soware, electronics, and other contents—rather than entire cars or engines—for vehicles to be produced outside India. Generally, the company’s R&D headquarters executes tight control over these centers, defining processes, standards, and interfaces and monitoring quality. Another 55 percent of foreign auto companies’ R&D centers in India are engineering nuclei, which have local responsibility for adapting hardware compoT B C G Exhibit 10. The Indian Automotive Market Will Grow Fast from a Relatively Small Base Local OEMs’ share will increase Currently three main production clusters (selected examples) OEM plants: Tier 1 plants: 9% per year Sales volumea (millions) Delhi and Gurgaon OEMs: Honda, Maruti Suppliers: Continental, Delphi, Denso, Lear, Visteon, ZF ~3.0 33% Pune and Mumbai OEMs: Mahindra, Škoda, Tata, Volkswagen Suppliers: ArvinMeritor, Bosch, Continental, Dana, Johnson Controls, Lear, Magna, TRW, Visteon, ZF ~2.0 1.7 30% Local OEMs’ vehicles Localized foreign OEMs’ vehicles 31% 66% 69% 70% Imports <1% 2008 <1% b 2009 <1% 2014b 22 60 Bangalore and Chennai OEMs: BMW, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Mahindra, Toyota Suppliers: Aisin, ArvinMeritor, Bosch, Dana, Delphi, Denso, Faurecia, Toyota Boshoku, TRW, Visteon Sources: IHS Global Insight, November 2009; Economist Intelligence Unit; press research; corporate information; company interviews; companies’ annual reports and press releases; BCG analysis. Note: Includes only OEMs and international suppliers with significant production footprints in India; also includes CKD production. a Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 3.5 tons. b Estimates. nents such as suspensions, front ends, and seats. Only 15 percent of the R&D centers are local R&D hubs or centers of competence and have more autonomy from the global R&D headquarters. plier told us: “Our engineers at headquarters are not trained to develop low-cost products. Only by developing products locally, with local engineers, could we gain significant volume from local Indian suppliers.” Although Indian consumers have the most distinctive automotive requirements among the BRIC countries—for instance, a growing demand for vehicles that cost well below $5,000—foreign OEMs have so far made few local adaptations to those requirements. Moreover, they generally lead whatever adaptations they make from their R&D headquarters in the triad markets. Sourcing In contrast, pioneering suppliers have transferred R&D responsibility for local products to their Indian R&D centers. (See the sidebar “Shiing Responsibility for R&D to India.”) As one interview partner from a European supW BRIC A M While pioneering OEMs and suppliers have established full-fledged local production based on significant levels of local sourcing, a number of other companies still conduct CKD production or rely on high levels of imported parts and raw materials. In 2008, India exported only $3 billion worth of auto parts—one-tenth as much as China. Nonetheless, “local for global” sourcing is growing fast. Clearly, companies have not yet realized the full potential of sourcing from India. This is partly because most foreign OEMs and suppliers have just recently set up their Shifting Responsibility for R&D to India In 2007, one North American supplier inaugurated a technology park in Chennai that included an R&D center that was given global responsibility for the company’s soware development. The center also has sole responsibility for the development and validation of electronic modules and a variety of additional business processes. According to plans, close to 1,000 soware engineers and business process staff will be employed there. Indian sourcing offices, and partly because their sourcing is focused on commodities rather than on technologies, and on localized foreign suppliers rather than on local suppliers. Manufacturing Most foreign OEMs and suppliers have localized production, though their volumes are below the levels they produce in Brazil and China. Our interview partners confirmed that production costs are somewhat higher in India than in the triad markets because of low scale effects, far higher quality costs, and higher costs for the logistics involved in importing parts. To address the cost challenges, auto companies are undertaking a number of initiatives to do more production manually and to improve quality. Several competitors, particularly local suppliers, are applying the latest quality approaches and succeeding in bringing failure rates to within international standards. (See the sidebar “Sona Koyo Steering Systems Sets the Quality Standard.”) Sales In this area also, foreign auto companies have reached a medium level of localization in India. Some foreign OEMs, including Ford, GM, Hyundai, and Maruti, have expanded their sales networks to tier 3, tier 4, and tier 5 cities, reflecting the distribution of market potential. Hyundai is a front-runner in this area, along with Maruti. Other foreign OEMs tend to focus their sales efforts on tier 1 cities. To tap into previously uncovered regions, OEMs may find aer-sales satellites useful. One interview partner from an international OEM told us: “Indian consumers may travel long distances to buy a car, but not to repair it. Without a nearby option for service and repair, they won’t buy even the most attractive car. Outlets Similarly, a European OEM uses its proprietary Indian R&D center for, among other activities, conducting basic and applied research in encryption, image and signal processing, and telematics; doing soware engineering and development; and consulting in technology, embedded soware, and IT security. specialized in aer-sales or ‘fly-in’ technicians are the solution.” Foreign OEMs have not yet developed vehicles specifically to meet local Indian requirements, nor have they entered the rapidly developing ultra-low-cost microcar segment. Instead, they mostly adapt global models to Indian consumers’ requirements—for example, by fitting the vehicles with diesel engines and by increasing their utility (for instance, with larger storage space) and stability (for instance, with “dog bars” in the front to protect the vehicle from accidents involving animals). Even market leader Maruti has been focusing on older Suzuki models, such as the Maruti 800 or the Maruti Omni, or on newer designs, such as the Swi or the SX4; and only recently has Maruti started to offer models based on substantial development by Indian engineers, such as the A-star. In contrast, local automaker Tata has boldly broken new ground with the Nano, for which it has also developed innovative approaches not only to the product itself but also to its manufacture and sales. Suppliers supported Tata significantly in meeting the vehicle’s low cost targets. (See the sidebar “Tata Mobilized Suppliers to Meet Indian Requirements.”) As in the Nano example, suppliers in India have begun to serve local OEMs with ultra-low-cost components that were developed locally, at least in part. Thus they are expanding their market shares with local OEMs, increasing their volume, and contributing to the further localization of the industry. Foreign automotive companies operating in India have managed to achieve a medium degree of localization despite their relatively short tenure in the country. In contrast to Russia, India’s stable development in the past and T B C G Sona Koyo Steering Systems Sets the Quality Standard Sona Koyo Steering Systems, an Indian supplier, has participated in a joint venture with a major Japanese partner since 1985. From the beginning, Sona Koyo has always stressed quality management initiatives. In 1988, it began implementing total quality management and total productive maintenance practices throughout the organization. Thanks to these measures, the company was able to reduce customer rejection rates from 1,579 parts per million in 1998 to 112 parts per million in 2004. In parallel, it invested in tier 2 supplier development and implemented quality programs at its suppliers. These efforts led to a reduction of supplier rejection rates from 35,000 parts per million to 932 parts per million during the same period. (See the exhibit below.) In 2003, Sona Koyo’s achievements were honored with the Deming Prize, which is awarded by the Union of Japanese Scientists and Engineers to companies that make major contributions to the advancement of quality. Since then, the company has launched several new initiatives, such as just-in-time production, flow management, breakthrough management, risk hazard analysis, and kaizen. Its objective is to lower customer rejections to 5 parts per million and supplier rejections to 300 parts per million. Sona Koyo is seen as the benchmark for quality management in India. Sona Koyo’s Quality Program Has Achieved Extraordinary Performance Improvement Supplier rejections (parts per million) In-house rejections (parts per million) 35,000 18,000 30,000 15,000 Customer rejections (parts per million) 1,600 1,200 25,000 12,000 20,000 35,000 15,000 –97% 9,000 17,300 800 –95% 1,579 –93% 6,000 10,000 400 3,000 5,000 932 0 876 0 Past Aer introduction of quality program Past Aer introduction of quality program 112 0 Past Aer introduction of quality program Sources: Sona Koyo; BCG analysis. W BRIC A M Tata Mobilized Suppliers to Meet Indian Requirements In the Nano, Tata has succeeded in launching a car that can be afforded by millions of Indians whose annual incomes are below 2 lakhs of rupees ($4,300)—effectively, a car that competes in price with large motorcycles. The Nano’s features are not luxurious, but they meet Indian consumers’ requirements: a large interior space, four doors, and five seats. The principal levers Tata employed to develop the Nano included a low-investment production strategy that avoids, for example, expensive welding; a distribution strategy that focuses on direct orders, direct sales, and avoiding dealer margins where possible; and an innovative supplier strategy whereby Tata selected some 100 suppliers on the basis of their ability to coinvest in R&D, ramp up their capacity, and perform in-house anticipated strong growth in the future give automotive companies a sound planning horizon, and thus a good basis for investing in further localization. China Among the BRIC automotive markets, the Chinese market has experienced the most radical transformation over the past three decades. When foreign carmakers first entered China in the early 1980s, the automotive market— with sales of less than 10,000 units annually—consisted mainly of two models, both domestic: the Hongqi and the Shanghai. By the early 1990s, despite the localized production of vehicles such as the Volkswagen Santana and the Audi 100, China still had the smallest sales volume of the four BRIC auto markets. But from the early 1990s to the early years of this century, the explosive growth of China’s auto market took it soaring past the other BRIC markets, from fourth place to first. Today China makes up more than half of the total BRIC market volume—and its share is steadily increasing. Moreover, no country on earth has more foreign OEMs and suppliers localized within its borders: virtually all major OEMs and suppliers now have localized production in China. China’s economic stability during the current downturn, coupled with its strongly growing demand for cars, mean that China’s prominence among the BRIC automotive markets will continue to expand. Clearly, China needs to be the cornerstone of every international automotive company’s BRIC strategy. However, aer operating very testing. One large European supplier, which gained more than 10 percent of the Nano’s supply volume by locally adapting or developing low-cost components, is serving Tata, among others, with throttle position sensors, 35-amp generators, an engine management system, a motor starter, and various electric body parts. More than 70 percent of the Nano’s parts were designed and are produced in India. Eighty-five percent of the parts were either developed from scratch or adapted from motorcycle applications. The scope and creativity of the Nano project demonstrate the level of flexibility required of foreign and local suppliers alike when serving local Indian OEMs. successfully through the downturn in 2009, the Chinese automotive market will experience more moderate growth, owing partly to the expected discontinuation of sales stimuli. (See Exhibit 11.) Over the five-year period from the beginning of 2010 through 2014, the market will grow at approximately 5 percent annually, reaching sales of some 15 million units in 2014. Because of Chinese restrictions on imports, their share of the Chinese automotive market is small and will remain so. Local Chinese OEMs and foreign OEMs with localized production currently divide up most of the market almost equally. We expect that over the next few years, the local automotive industry will expand its share by promoting inexpensive models tailored specifically to Chinese consumers’ needs, thus attaining a market share of 55 percent in 2014. The Chinese automotive industry currently includes more than 100 plants belonging to foreign OEMs and tier 1 suppliers. While the Chinese government has expressed its intention to locate new plants in the north and especially in the west of the country, plants currently fall into four main automotive clusters along the east coast, as shown in Exhibit 11. Despite China’s relatively brief history as a base for foreign automotive companies, these companies have already achieved a slightly higher degree of localization in China than even in Brazil. Nonetheless, that localization can still be characterized as medium, rather than adT B C G vanced. And unlike the situation in Brazil and India, the top three localization pioneers in China are only slightly more localized than most others in the market. In short, there is significant potential for auto companies to create value by pushing for further localization in all four major functions. At present, some 55 percent of foreign auto companies’ Chinese R&D centers function as engineering nuclei. One European supplier, for example, transferred to its Chinese R&D center full responsibility for adapting gearboxes to local application needs; but the center remains under tight control from the company’s headquarters and serves China only. R&D Most foreign companies in China use their local R&D centers mostly to adapt their existing models to meet local needs, rather than giving them responsibility for worldwide projects. But auto companies’ use of Chinese R&D centers is evolving fast, driven by the massive scale of the current and potential market and the specificity of Chinese consumers’ automotive requirements. It is also helpful that China graduates an astonishing 1.8 million engineers annually. Another 25 percent of these centers function as local R&D hubs. One supplier, for example, keeps its R&D center occupied primarily with applications engineering and only occasionally assigns it responsibility for more sophisticated work, such as developing backlights for a new model or adapting hardware or soware. Some localization pioneers have begun undertaking local development of models designed specifically to meet Chi- Exhibit 11. China’s Auto Market Will Continue Its Impressive Growth Through 2014 Stable and strong market growth Currently four main production clusters (selected examples) OEM plants: 32 Tier 1 plants: ~70 5% per year Sales volumea (millions) Changchun and Shenyang OEMs: Audi, BMW, General Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen Suppliers: Autoliv, Continental, Johnson Controls, Lear, TRW, Valeo, Visteon ~15.3 ~12.2 55% 8.6 Local OEMs’ vehicles Localized foreign OEMs’ vehicles 52% 49% 47% 46% 43% Imports 3% 3% 2% 2008 2009b 2014b Beijing and Tianjin OEMs: Daimler, Hyundai, Toyota Suppliers: Aisin, Autoliv, Delphi, Denso, Johnson Controls, Lear, TRW, Visteon, Yazaki Shanghai OEMs: Fiat, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Iveco, Kia, Škoda, Volkswagen Suppliers: Aisin, Autoliv, Guangzhou Bosch, Continental, OEMs: Honda, Delphi, Denso, Nissan, Faurecia, Johnson Toyota Controls, Lear, Suppliers: Aisin, Autoliv, Magna, TRW, Continental, Valeo, Visteon, Denso, Yazaki Johnson Controls, Lear, Magna, Valeo, Yazaki Sources: IHS Global Insight, November 2009; Economist Intelligence Unit; press research; corporate information; company interviews; companies’ annual reports and press releases; BCG analysis. Note: Includes only international OEMs and suppliers with significant production footprints in China. a Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 3.5 tons. b Estimates. W BRIC A M nese market demand. One European OEM, with this goal in mind, is already managing multiple full-fledged R&D centers in China. It operates two R&D centers, each with more than 500 employees; both focus primarily on local adaptation tasks, including developing products for local production on the basis of existing platforms. Some localized foreign suppliers are now serving not only foreign OEMs but also local Chinese OEMs, providing low-cost components either developed locally from scratch or heavily adapted from global products. To benefit from China’s ambition to become a leader in electric-vehicle technology, some companies have started developing R&D capacities there. (See the sidebar “China Pushes for E-Car Leadership.”) local staff access to their headquarters’ servers, while providing their localized international staff access from offsite locations, such as their home offices. One of foreign auto companies’ main concerns about conducting R&D in China is the protection of their intellectual property (IP). Especially in China, it is essential to take precautions to ensure IP protection. The first step is to secure the company’s know-how through licenses, patents, and nondiffusion agreements. A German OEM was able to forestall the production of a copy of its small vehicle only because of previous patent and license protection, while a North American competitor could not prevent such copying because the company lacked a design patent under Chinese law. Sourcing The second step to ensure IP protection is restricting access to critical or proprietary information. Several European OEMs and suppliers take the precaution of denying The third step companies should take to protect their IP is promoting employee retention. One supplier makes a special effort to retain employees who are familiar with the company’s IP by implementing a mentoring program for them. Although these measures by no means ensure total IP security, they can reduce leakages and provide some safeguards. Clearly, IP protection needs to be high on the agenda of all Chinese operations. In sourcing, foreign automotive companies have achieved high levels of localization in China. For instance, several OEMs and suppliers are investing significant efforts in supplier development. Far more than in Brazil, foreign OEMs and suppliers alike are already using China sourcing to meet not just local but also worldwide demand. In 2008, China exported some $30 billion worth of automotive parts, compared with Brazil’s $9.1 billion. However, no automotive company has yet allowed its China local-for-global sourcing to represent a truly significant share of its overall sourcing. Typically, even localization front-runners’ local-for-global sourcing in China amounts to just 1 to 5 percent of their total worldwide China Pushes for E-Car Leadership China wants to become the technology leader in electric vehicles. Some 60 million electric scooters already travel China’s roads. The government has set the ambitious target of producing and selling 500,000 electric, fuel-cell, and hybrid vehicles by year-end 2011. To achieve that goal, the Chinese government strongly supports the development of relevant technological competencies. Since 2008, it has issued incentives to foster the development of environment-friendly vehicles. In addition, the government has dedicated some $1.5 billion to vehicles and parts that are based on new forms of energy. The government also subsidizes each purchase of an ecar with an incentive of $8,800. China’s ambition is supported by its large reserves of raw materials, such as neo- dymium, that are essential to the production of batteries for e-cars. The Chinese battery-and-car producer BYD is seen as having significant potential to become a future e-car leader. Drawing on its experience in both businesses, it recently launched its model F3DM. Priced at approximately $22,000, it promises a battery range of 100 kilometers, or 62 miles. China’s strong incentives and relevant competence clusters may change the logic of where to conduct R&D for electric vehicles. Already some international automotive companies are considering localizing their e-car R&D centers of competence in China. T B C G spending. Only one North American supplier has grown its China sourcing to more than 10 percent of its total spending. At these volumes, the ambitious local-for-global sourcing programs that auto companies have been conducting for many years have had relatively little impact. As we learned from our interview partners, the worldwide crisis and the increasing need to reduce the cost of worldwide production provided significant “tail wind” to existing programs for offshore sourcing, with targets rising and new programs being set up. For successful localfor-global sourcing, a clearly delineated functional structure is essential. (See Exhibit 12.) Furthermore, foreign OEMs and suppliers source mainly from localized foreign suppliers rather than from local Chinese suppliers. Of these companies’ Chinasourcing volumes, 56 percent is from localized foreign suppliers. But because these suppliers’ production systems and cost positions in China closely resemble those in their home countries, the OEMs that source from them are not fulfilling China’s potential for low-cost sourcing. Many companies cite quality issues and unfamiliarity with international processes, such as ramping up production, as the core obstacles to increasing their sourcing from China. Some auto companies have surmounted these obstacles by building up supplier development capabilities on the ground in China. For example, one European company has created a supplier development unit that supports the company’s 40 core local suppliers in implementing improvements related to quality, cost, manufacturing, logistics, and project management. The unit uses external and internal resources, and coordinates and monitors the initiative centrally across the company’s joint ventures. Best-practice automotive companies have twice as many supplier development staff as purchasing staff. As a European OEM in China put it: “Local Chinese suppliers usually do not match the tight time frames of our strict R&D processes. For example, it takes them much longer to produce samples that match our drawings. To keep deadlines within the R&D process, many companies choose international suppliers instead of starting to develop local sup- Exhibit 12. Worldwide Sourcing Offices Need a Proven Structure and Clear Accountabilities Head of local sourcing office Planned sourcing volume: $100 million to $150 million Purchasing Possible head count Key activities ~6 to 8 b ◊ Supplier identification ◊ Prequalification ◊ Request-forquote support and negotiation Quality Logistics Product developmenta Supplier development ~2 to 4b ~3 to 5c ~1 to 3d ~1 to 3e a ◊ Quality auditing ◊ Quality training ◊ Management of local qualitycontrol infrastructure a ◊ Logistics auditing ◊ Supplier-LLP interface management ◊ Local logistics optimization ◊ Explanation of specs and drawings ◊ Codevelopment support ◊ Supplier productivity enhancement ◊ Supplier network structuring Source: BCG project experience. Note: LLP = lead logistics provider. a Functional reporting to headquarters. b Head count will increase with sourcing volume. c Start-up team with broad functionality; only limited further increases in head count. d Will depend on type of sourced parts. e Will depend on nature of local supplier base. W BRIC A M pliers up front. The consequence is that they pay higher prices over years.” fih-tier cities such as Benxi, Kashi, and Wenchang. In contrast, the networks of smaller and premium foreign OEMs still focus only on first- and second-tier cities. Manufacturing While all major international OEMs and suppliers have localized some of their production in China, the suppliers have established particularly wide production networks. For example, one supplier of suspension and power train modules has built up a network of some 20 production sites, which are coordinated centrally by a corporation set up to direct the network and identify synergies within it. Thanks to China’s massive automotive market, which allows carmakers to produce very large volumes of each model, the benefits of scale are significantly higher there than in the other BRIC countries, especially India and Russia, although they do not yet reach triad market levels. Meanwhile, China’s factor-cost advantages, including low wages, do not make up for the country’s higher costs in the areas of quality assurance and logistics. Taking all these conditions together, automotive production costs slightly more in China, on average, than it does in the triad markets. Moreover, whatever is produced by localized foreign OEMs and suppliers goes almost entirely to meet demand in the Chinese domestic market. Almost none of it is exported, mainly because of the scale of internal demand and the higher logistics costs for exports. Some companies have begun carefully replacing some of their automated manufacturing processes with manual ones—especially processes that have little impact on quality and allow the company to reduce its investment in machinery and tools. For example, one European OEM has, at least in part, switched to manual production processes for body welding, scribing of the chassis number, and wheel mounting—in which minor variances in the process are unlikely to have a significant impact on the product’s final quality—but has kept quality-sensitive activities, such as merging the body with the power train and postproduction testing, as automated as in the company’s home-country plants. (See Exhibit 13.) To meet Chinese consumers’ demand for “high status” vehicles, OEMs have been extending their cars’ wheelbases, adding exterior chrome, and installing entertainment and control equipment in rear seats, where the car’s owner can access it while the car is being driven by a chauffeur. A number of OEMs, including premium carmakers, now offer such long-wheelbase versions of their products in China. Localization front-runners go one step further and develop China-specific vehicles rather than modifying existing designs. Market leader Volkswagen recently launched two models specifically developed for China: the New Bora and the Lavida. Both are based on the platform of the former Volkswagen Bora, but their new designs are geared specifically to Chinese tastes and they target two different segments: consumers with conservative tastes and consumers with sportier tastes. Recognizing the growing significance of the Chinese market and its specific needs, foreign companies have begun testing their new sales approaches in China rather than in their home markets. For example, some OEMs have established innovative incentive schemes for their dealers. One Japanese OEM pays out part of the margin for sales performance directly to the dealers’ employees, including the general manager and the sales, service, parts, and financial services staff. Leading foreign OEMs in China have developed sophisticated offerings involving not only sales of new vehicles but also aer-sales services, financial services, and usedcar businesses. Some examples: ◊ Aer-Sales Services: A North American OEM has established a layered, spun-off aer-sales network with service satellites. ◊ Financial Services: Most European OEMs have developed extensive financing and insurance offerings. Sales Foreign automotive companies’ sales operations in China have almost reached the deep localization levels of their sales operations in Brazil, despite these companies’ much shorter history in China. As in Brazil, most of the major foreign OEMs in China have widespread sales networks that serve not only tier 1 cities but also smaller, third- to ◊ Used-Car Businesses: A Japanese OEM is supporting its dealers by investing in their used-car businesses. Like the major international OEMs, all the leading international suppliers now have localized production capacity in China. Most have started to serve local Chinese T B C G OEMs as well as localized foreign ones. However, their sales to those local OEMs remain far smaller than they could be. Although one European supplier of electronic parts now sells 60 percent of its production to local Chinese OEMs, this is an exception to the rule. Most localized foreign suppliers sell on average just 15 percent of their production to local Chinese OEMs—though a share of more than 50 percent would more accurately reflect the number and purchasing power of local OEMs. Expanding sales to local Chinese OEMs clearly represents a large opportunity for localized foreign suppliers. Several suppliers are adapting their existing product designs to local requirements by reducing their specifications and contents, using lower-cost materials that can be sourced locally, and transplanting low-cost designs from other RDEs to sell to local Chinese OEMs. Chinese OEMs are especially interested in international suppliers’ engineering and design capabilities, as well as their quality performance. As one of our interview partners—an international supplier localized in China—put it: “We won contracts with the local OEM only because we could help define its so-far nonexistent requirement specification.” Regulations in China have required foreign OEMs and suppliers to form joint ventures with local companies. Exhibit 13. Converting Noncritical Processes from Automated to Manual Can Cut Costs Process Overview Selected steps in car manufacturing Testing on the roller dynamometer Body welding Germany China Germany China 1. Liing of body part 2. Positioning 3. Welding a s a s s a 1. Testing of ◊ Driving performance ◊ Brakes ◊ Controls ◊ Electrical functions 2. Analysis of failure data Layout of a typical automotive plant Body shop Paint shop Window mounting Assembly Germany China 1. Delivery of window to preassembly table 2. Application of glue 3. Mounting of window a s a a m a a a a a a a a a Delivery Mounting s Germany China Level of automation Scribing the chassis number Germany China 1. Delivery of body 2. Application of scribing head 3. Scribing of chassis number 4. Removal of scribing head a a a m m a a a m Quality relevance a Automated High s Semiautomated Medium m Manual Low 1. Cockpit mounting 2. Wheel mounting a s a m Merging the body with the engine (“marriage”) Germany China 1. Lowering of body 2. Raising of platform 3. Joining with screw rod a a a s a a Sources: Company interviews; BCG analysis. W BRIC A M However, many local joint-venture partners also represent their partners’ suppliers, customers, and competitors at the same time, which generates conflicts of interest. For this reason, some companies question the merits of further localization. To manage their joint ventures successfully, foreign companies in this situation need to rethink them and adopt the following principles: ◊ If possible, engage in more than one joint venture to avoid power plays and overdependence on a single partner ◊ Ensure clarity and alignment on long-term strategic objectives ◊ Set up pragmatic escalation processes to solve strategic and operational disputes ◊ Staff the joint ventures adequately from the board to the operational level ◊ Be prepared for ongoing negotiation and regular reevaluation of each partner’s contribution to the joint venture All four BRIC automotive markets offer opportunities. The art lies in determining which functions to localize in each country, and to what extent. ◊ Clearly define which joint-venture partner takes the lead in which role T B C G Prioritizing Investments Across the BRIC Markets A utomotive companies’ strategic approaches to the BRIC markets differ tremendously. In general, companies have adopted detailed strategies for each BRIC country and each function in which they are active. However, in our experience, such strategies are oen flawed. For instance, some companies focus their investments not on the countries that offer the highest potential profits but on those in which their own operations are already most or least localized. But any investment strategy that is based on the company’s current pattern of localization, rather than on a carefully thought out crossBRIC strategy, is unlikely to realize the BRIC countries’ opportunities for growth and profit. On the other hand, a strategy that focuses on standardized cross-BRIC approaches is equally risky, because different levels of localization require different forms of investment. In our view, companies can optimize their investment activity across the BRIC markets by focusing specifically on the “sweet spots” of localization. We recommend allocating investments in each of the BRIC automotive markets on the basis of the following criteria: ◊ The Market’s Current Degree of Automotive Industry Localization: How localized are foreign auto companies’ R&D, sourcing, manufacturing, and sales in comparison with their activities in the other BRIC countries? ◊ The Outlook for Profit Opportunities: How will profit drivers, such as market growth, cost-competitiveness, and the availability of local talent, evolve? ◊ Future Market Size: How big will the market be when the investment becomes effective? W BRIC A M With these criteria in mind, it is critically important to deaverage the localization process. Companies need to select the particular functions in each of the BRIC countries that offer the highest potential benefits, as well as the particular BRIC countries that offer the best prospects for localizing functions. On the basis of our extensive research and firsthand experience, we have developed a matrix of investment attractiveness by country and function. (See Exhibit 14.) Let’s look at the four BRIC markets individually. Brazil, like India, is a prime choice for localizing R&D because it has very specific customer requirements, highly qualified local capabilities, and a relatively low risk of intellectual property loss or employee attrition. Given the relative stability of the Brazilian market and its likely future growth, OEMs and suppliers should reinforce their current positions in the country and invest in improving their cost positions even further. They should also consider the right balance between automated and manual processes in order to cope with the market’s volatility in terms of model demand. To avoid overcapacities, companies should invest in expanding organically as well as in identifying and addressing all capacity bottlenecks in existing plants and sales networks. In Russia, with its highly unpredictable market, companies should carefully consider investment decisions. Companies should also try to make their production and sales capacities more flexible—for example, by importing best practices in flexible manufacturing from Brazil. Although India is currently the second smallest of the BRIC automotive markets, its expected fast growth and entry barriers against imports qualify it as a good target for further investment, especially in R&D and manufac Exhibit 14. Some Combinations of Functions and Countries Are Particularly Attractive Functions R&D Brazil India Russia uu Very attractive thanks to experience and need for countryspecific models u Attractive as long as employees can be retained uu Attractiveness lies primarily in India’s IT specialists v Lack of countryspecific consumer needs makes R&D relatively unattractive u Local-for-local sourcing viable owing to trade barriers; currency makes local-forglobal difficult uu Very attractive owing to import barriers, large number of suppliers, and low factor costs u Attractive owing to low factor costs, but local-content requirements are low v Less attractive owing to small number of suppliers, relatively low quality, and currency risk u Attractive regional hubs, skilled labor, and attractive cost position uu Very attractive, as large local market can outweigh challenging cost situation uu Very attractive owing to large and growing labor force, although local market is relatively small t Comparatively high labor costs, but presence useful as hedge against external factors u Moderate growth locally, but good potential for exporting to nearby markets uu Largest BRIC market by far—and expanding relative to others u Very strong growth, but market is relatively small u Hardest hit by crisis, but likely to make a strong recovery Sourcing Manufacturing Sales China Most attractive combinations of functions and countries. Sources: IHS Global Insight, November 2009; Economist Intelligence Unit; IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook; World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2008–2009; BCG analysis. turing. However, for foreign auto companies to profit from local potential, they must undertake further localization—for example, by using local R&D capabilities to develop ultra-low-cost opportunities both for India and for global markets. To compensate for the relatively small scale of production, India could be considered as an export base, especially for low-cost components or vehicles. Among the BRIC countries, China should be automotive companies’ primary target for low-cost sourcing. It offers a lower risk of currency fluctuations than the other three countries, stricter directives mandating local sourcing, and a much larger number of local suppliers that already perform at high levels and have the potential to ramp up production significantly. China’s massive and growing market also makes it a prime contender among the BRIC countries as a site for both manufacturing and sales. China’s status as the current and future BRIC stronghold dic- tates that auto companies should make it the primary focus of their investment strategies. However, to maintain a competitive edge there in view of the Chinese market’s rapid growth and keen price competition, companies will need to move quickly to further localize, expanding first their sales and aer-sales networks and potentially also their production facilities. While China’s massive market makes it a particularly attractive locale for automotive sales, all four BRIC auto markets are more promising than most other markets. All of them should therefore be considered worthy targets for possible investment in sales infrastructure. Once a company has determined its investment focus by country and by function, the next step is to decide precisely where to invest and how to embed those investments in effective cross-BRIC strategies. T B C G Formulating a Cross-BRIC Strategy F ◊ In Russia, it participates in a local joint venture that has produced emissions control systems since 1995, selling principally to local OEMs ◊ Evaluate the company’s current localization profile across the BRIC countries, both in its own right and in comparison with competitors ◊ In India, it has engaged in local production since 1952 and currently operates 11 plants, exporting some 20 percent of their production; it also has a technical center that provides soware and engineering solutions for locations in some 15 countries ◊ Develop an optimal localization profile on the country and function levels ◊ In China, it operates 14 branch offices, seven joint ventures, six trading companies, and four R&D centers Evaluating Current Localization Profiles To extend their globalization further, BRIC champions such as this company could consider creating global centers of competence for R&D, sourcing, and manufacturing, as well as enforcing the sharing of best practices across the company. or many automotive companies, developing an integrated cross-BRIC strategy will be a new exercise. To date, companies have tended to approach the BRIC markets opportunistically rather than systematically, and to consider them individually rather than as elements of a global strategy. To arrive at an integrated cross-BRIC strategy, companies must take two important steps: To assess the present status of a company’s localization in the BRIC markets, it is useful to apply a systematic framework. (See Exhibit 15.) We have conducted this evaluation for 49 automotive companies across the four BRIC countries and the four relevant functions. Our analysis revealed that most of these companies follow one of four patterns of localization—BRIC champion, country champion, function localizer, or centralist—while onequarter of them may be considered selective opportunity seekers, since they do not exhibit a clear pattern. Brazilian suppliers to provide their products to all the company’s worldwide plants The largest proportion of companies (45 percent) are country champions—companies that focus their localization efforts on one or two BRIC countries. For example, one supplier has no major activities in India or Russia but is strongly localized in Brazil and China. Only 8 percent of the companies we profiled are BRIC champions—companies that have achieved deep localization in all four BRIC countries. For example, one German supplier has established the following capabilities: ◊ In Brazil, where the company has been present since 1978, it operates 11 plants and two R&D centers, exporting some 20 percent of its production; it also does local development of products for production outside Brazil ◊ In Brazil, it has seven plants and runs a global supplier-development program that enables the company’s ◊ In China, which it entered in 1996, it operates three plants and two R&D centers; local customers, includ- W BRIC A M Exhibit 15. Automotive Companies Follow Five Patterns of Localization Localization pattern Description Percentage of companies1 BRIC champion Deeply localized in all BRIC countries at settler level or higher 8 Country champion Localized primarily in one or two BRIC countries, oen China or Brazil; less present in Russia 45 Function localizer More localized in some functions—oen manufacturing or sales—than in others 14 Centralist Localized to a low-to-medium degree—at or below the explorer level—in all BRIC countries 8 Selective opportunity seeker No discernible localization strategy (typically true of suppliers rather than OEMs) 24 Sample localization curves Sources: BCG localization database; BCG analysis. 1 Within the BCG study group. ing Chery, Geely, and Great Wall Motors, purchase more than half of its production Companies in the country champion category need to review their current degree of localization country by country and ensure the exchange of best practices from countries in which they are more localized to those in which they are less localized. Another 14 percent of the companies we evaluated are function localizers—companies that focus on localizing certain functions. For example, one Japanese OEM heavily localizes its sourcing and sales in the BRIC countries while keeping local R&D under tight control from headquarters and applying standard Japanese production processes. materials it needs for products for the Chinese market, while it sources in India some 75 percent of its spending for new models that it produces in that country); it sources primarily from localized Japanese suppliers with which it has long-term relationships ◊ In manufacturing, the company produces high volumes in all four BRIC countries, generally employing standard production processes and high degrees of automation ◊ In sales, the company operates extensive networks that serve a number of third- to fih-tier cities across the BRIC markets ◊ In R&D, all the company’s centers outside Japan offer only technical support and development that involves minor adaptations; they do not have research capability Companies in the function localizer category need to review their current degree of localization of each function in each country, and to develop clear policies governing the effective distribution of roles between the company’s headquarters and local hubs. ◊ In sourcing, the company localizes significant shares of its global spending in the BRIC countries (for instance, it sources in China fully 85 percent of the parts and Just 8 percent of the companies we evaluated are centralists—companies that serve the BRIC countries mainly from their headquarters. One European premium OEM T B C G takes this approach, maintaining only minor operations in the BRIC countries. tion and then developing a master integration map and strategic plan. ◊ In Brazil, the OEM serves the market by means of imports from its European and North American plants Developing an Optimal Localization Profile ◊ In Russia and India, it operates local CKD plants that produce fewer than 10,000 units per year; it also maintains an exclusive sales network in each country but conducts no significant R&D or sourcing activities there Once a company has identified its current BRIC localization profile, it can be helpful to compare that profile with competitors’ profiles in order to identify areas where strategic changes may be needed. However, more is not necessarily better: we do not generally recommend that all automotive companies localize all four functions in all four BRIC countries. ◊ In China, it has a large CKD plant producing 50,000 units annually, as well as a sales network focusing on tier 1 and tier 2 cities; but it conducts no significant R&D or sourcing activities Companies that operate as centralists need to challenge their current degree of centralization and explore the potential advantages of extending their localization in specific areas. Almost one-quarter of the companies we evaluated (24 percent) are selective opportunity seekers—companies that either have no overall localization strategy or have one that is not evident. For example, one supplier appears to be focusing on different combinations of countries and functions. ◊ R&D in Russia. The supplier operates an engineering office in Novgorod, where some 15 engineers develop technological solutions based on orders from the German headquarters. To decide which functions to localize to which degree in which BRIC countries, companies need to address certain core issues relevant to each function. The goal in each case is to achieve the optimal balance between taking a decentralized, market-specific approach and achieving global synergies. In localizing R&D, automotive companies that are experienced in conducting multinational R&D networks stress that it is crucial to assign clear local and global R&D responsibilities that take advantage of each country’s particular R&D expertise. Currently, the four BRIC countries have highly diverse areas of R&D focus. (See Exhibit 16.) So, for instance, it might make sense for a company to distribute its R&D as follows: ◊ Soware development in India ◊ Electronics applications in China ◊ Manufacturing in Brazil. The supplier operates plants in Campinas, Camaçari, Porto Real, and São José dos Pinhais to produce axes, suspensions, and body parts. The company also does local production in the other BRIC countries but is less localized there. ◊ Alternative fuel technologies in Brazil ◊ Sourcing from India and China. In India, the supplier runs a global sourcing office in Bangalore for automotive components. In China, its sourcing activities have achieved a local sourcing share of close to 70 percent. Aer having identified the focus of R&D in each BRIC country, the company must define the role of each local R&D center as one of the following: an offshore unit, an engineering nucleus, a local engineering hub, or a center of competence. It is generally not advisable for a center to be tasked with playing more than one of those roles. The company must also set forth the rules and mechanisms governing the centers’ interactions with the company’s R&D headquarters. Automotive companies that have no clear pattern of localization can benefit by reevaluating the attractiveness of their localization opportunities by country and funcW BRIC A M Of course, these BRIC specializations would need to be aligned with the competencies in the company’s existing R&D centers. Exhibit 16. R&D in the BRIC Countries Focuses on Different Products and Technologies Representative Areas of R&D Specialization Russia1 ◊ Special vehicles ◊ Electronic controls ◊ CAD and modeling ◊ Body design Brazil ◊ Small SUVs ◊ B-segment cars ◊ Flex-fuel and related combustion technology ◊ Low-tech electronic parts ◊ Small engines ◊ Suspension ◊ Materials China India ◊ Minicars and small cars ◊ Soware ◊ Embedded control systems ◊ CAD and virtual manufacturing ◊ Materials ◊ Cars designed for RDEs ◊ Electrical components ◊ Body and exterior ◊ Vehicle design and prototyping ◊ Testing ◊ Battery technology ◊ Electronics Sources: Corporate information; company interviews; BCG analysis. 1 Russia is not yet at the level of the other BRIC countries. The categories cited are those in which Russia is currently closest to achieving competitive parity. In sourcing, companies should identify their primary sourcing needs and determine which countries or regions offer the best combination of high quality and low cost for each category of sourced items. (See Exhibit 17.) Armed with this awareness, a company might choose, for example, to localize its network of sourcing offices as follows: ◊ Brazil for processed metal ◊ India for IT and engineering services ◊ China for electric modules and electronics ◊ Russia for selected body parts Aer deciding where to locate each sourcing office and what it should source, it is important to design a common blueprint and governance tools to link the offices across functions and regions. (See the sidebar “Governance Tools Play a Key Role in a Worldwide Sourcing Network.”) At the same time, headquarters should ensure that each sourcing office’s organization, available functions, and skills reflect country-specific requirements. In manufacturing, as noted above, costs are higher in most BRIC countries than in automotive companies’ home countries—Brazil being the one exception. To keep costs as low as possible, companies need to take full advantage of the following cost levers, adapting them to local conditions in each location: exploiting scale advantages; benefiting from low-cost labor (for example, by performing noncritical processes manually, as discussed above); carefully managing sourcing (for example, by conducting extensive supplier-development programs); and applying proven quality-assurance techniques. In designing a BRIC-based manufacturing network, companies should consider adopting one of the following T B C G Exhibit 17. Sourcing in the BRIC Countries Focuses on Different Parts and Technologies Principal Automotive Exports and Representative Sourcing Categories $1.7 billion $30.0 billion Brazil $9.1 billion ◊ Aluminum parts ◊ Brakes ◊ Crankshas ◊ Cylinder blocks, valve heads, and crankcases ◊ Engine pistons ◊ Gearboxes ◊ Injection pumps Value of 2008 exports of automotive components $3.0 billion India ◊ Bolts ◊ Cabling and wiring ◊ Cast steel ◊ Crankshas ◊ Gearboxes ◊ IT and engineering services ◊ Lamps ◊ Weld nuts Russia ◊ Batteries ◊ Flat, cast, and welded steel ◊ Glass ◊ Paints ◊ Plastic fittings ◊ Stamping parts China ◊ Brakes ◊ Cabling and wiring ◊ Electronic motors ◊ Forged or die-casting engine parts ◊ Fuses and switches ◊ Glass ◊ Heating systems ◊ Hydraulic parts ◊ Plastic and rubber parts ◊ Radios ◊ Speakers ◊ Wheels and seat parts Sources: UN Comtrade Database; corporate information; company interviews; BCG analysis. Governance Tools Play a Key Role in a Worldwide Sourcing Network The backbone of every global sourcing strategy is a strong network of local sourcing offices. Typically, these offices are charged with implementing five core functions: purchasing, quality assurance, logistics, product development, and supplier development. The allocation of functions may vary from country to country, depending on the kinds of commodities being sourced and the maturity of the local supply base. For example, a Japanese OEM that sources in all four BRIC countries has a ratio of one supplier-development employee per purchasing agent in Japan, a ratio of two to one in China, and a ratio of three to one in India, reflecting the greater need for supplier development in the BRIC countries than in Japan. To coordinate such a global sourcing network, companies need a set of specific governance tools and techniques. Six types of tools have proved particularly effective: W BRIC A M ◊ A shared sourcing strategy developed jointly between headquarters and sourcing offices, with local and global targets clearly specified ◊ Weekly conference calls among all sourcing offices and sourcing headquarters to make major decisions ◊ Weekly conference calls between sourcing offices and sourcing headquarters to align organizational topics ◊ Weekly or every-other-week functional conference calls to review supplier panels ◊ Global information sharing to exchange supplier information and RFP documents ◊ Global progress-tracking documents three approaches, depending on whether their primary goal is to secure volume-related cost advantages, maximize their localization, or achieve high quality at low cost: ◊ The Global-Scale Network. To secure volume-related cost advantages, a company should consider establishing one to three large plants in the BRIC countries to supply markets worldwide. One Korean OEM has made India its core manufacturing hub for low-cost minicars, serving all RDE markets from there and thus minimizing investment and maximizing scale effects. ◊ The Broken-Chain Network. To maximize a company’s localization, it should consider distributing pre- and final assembly in different countries. For example, one Indian supplier is delivering relatively simple products from India and highly complex products—together with customer support—from the triad markets. This approach allows the company to realize the advantages of low factor costs without compromising quality or service. ◊ The Isolated-Empire Network. To achieve high quality at low cost, a company should consider serving world markets from several regional hubs. One Japanese OEM has been able to shi the production of its pickup-truck models from high-cost Japanese plants to plants in several RDE countries while maintaining its strict quality standards, thus offering products with Japanese performance and quality at competitive prices in the RDE markets. These three approaches represent different forms of a decentralized but synergistic network, ensuring that operations in the BRIC markets profit from those in the triad markets and vice versa. In maximizing sales, the first requirement is to gain an intimate knowledge of local market tastes, preferences, and requirements so that products can be adapted accordingly. As noted above, consumers’ automotive preferences vary dramatically across the BRIC markets. (See Exhibit 18.) And taste is not the only issue. As one of our interview partners from a European OEM put it: “Not only are consumers’ tastes highly different, but car buyers in all BRIC countries, and especially in Russia and China, may consider the manufacture and sale of a car that was originally developed for another BRIC country as an insult.” It is clear that there can be no such thing as a single, homogeneous “BRIC car.” On the contrary, the differences in automotive tastes are much more pronounced among the BRIC countries than among countries in the triad markets. Brazilian consumers demand sporty hatchbacks, Russians want Western sedans and SUVs without adaptations, Indians require ultra-low-cost minicars, and the Chinese prefer luxury-style sedans with flair. The challenge is to produce these various models at sufficient scale to make them economically viable over the next few years, while the individual BRIC markets are still developing and before each one becomes large enough to justify the design and production of an individual, nonstandardized product. One possible way to meet that challenge is to develop a common platform that allows multiple local adaptations for BRIC markets, using local partners to help implement that solution. For example, a European OEM has developed a vehicle platform for low-cost countries with a standard wheelbase of 2,630 millimeters and a standard track of 1,480 millimeters. To cater to individual market requirements, the company not only has made local product adaptations but also has undertaken country-specific branding and marketing, and has engaged in joint ventures with local partners where appropriate. To satisfy Brazilians’ preference for sporty hatchbacks and small SUVs, the company introduced, in addition to its sedan, a hatchback model and a model that resembles an SUV and is marketed as a sporty adventure car. In Russia, the company produces the sedan without major adaptations, collaborating on production and sales with a local partner and enjoying strong government support. The model is positioned to compete successfully against top-selling local vehicles. To meet Indians’ need for low-cost products, the OEM redesigned the vehicle to pare away 15 percent of its costs. In China, the car is scheduled for production in 2010; there, too, the OEM will work with a local partner. Aer a company answers the core strategic questions for each key function and designs an overall BRIC strategy, the next step is implementation. In that effort, cross-market learning through the exchange of best practices can be invaluable in helping to get strategies “on the road.” In the course of our study, we identified many best practices in every BRIC country. Most of them are found in only one BRIC country, despite the fact that transferring them to other countries could create value. Only rarely T B C G Exhibit 18. Consumers in the BRIC Countries Demand Different Models Russia Brazil “Carro popular”— 1.0-liter hatchback ◊ Ethanol and flex-fuel, no diesel ◊ Off-road-style vehicles and small SUVs ◊ B-segment car family ◊ Hatchbacks rather than sedans ◊ Sporty pickups Example: Chevrolet Celta India Minicars ◊ Ultra-low-cost vehicles 1 ◊ Extra stability, such as “dog bars” ◊ Improved capabilities for flooded roads ◊ Greater practicality, such as larger interior spaces and trunks ◊ High-temperature gear, including stronger air-conditioning systems Example: Tata Nano Western sedans and SUVs, RDE-made sedans ◊ Western sedans and SUVs: no adaptation except kits for cold weather and rough roads ◊ RDE-designed sedans: robust technology, lower safety and emissions standards, less equipment Examples: Lada Priora, Toyota Camry China Midsize and larger sedans ◊ Extended wheelbases ◊ Luxurious rear-seat appointments (for larger vehicles) ◊ Large trunks ◊ Comfort and luxury items, such as diode lights and chrome ◊ Entertainment equipment Example: Volkswagen Passat Sources: Corporate information; company interviews; companies’ annual reports; BCG analysis. 1 An iron bar on the front end to protect the vehicle from impact during a crash with an animal. are best practices not transferable because of local conditions. In almost all cases, companies can benefit significantly from transferring best practices. For example, a European OEM holds regular dealer conventions in Brazil to identify issues on both sides and improve knowledge and data transfer. The company then convenes small work groups, composed of representatives from W BRIC A M both the OEM and the dealerships, to address each issue. This approach could be usefully applied in China, India, and Russia as well. Six Key Lessons from the BRIC Markets T hroughout this report, we have identified six key lessons for leveraging a company’s presence across the BRIC countries. 5. Adapt standard designs to meet local needs. Benefit from scale and offer tailored products by using standard platforms with significant product adaptations, local partnering, and market-specific sales and marketing concepts. 1. Actively allocate investment spending across BRIC countries and functions. Keeping in mind the company’s overall strategy, prioritize the relevance and value of conducting each of the four functions within each of the four BRIC countries. Take into consideration the company’s current degree of localization in each area, the prospects for profitable development of each particularly promising combination of function and BRIC country, and the future size and growth of the market. 6. Accelerate localization by transferring best practices among BRIC countries. Identify and transfer all applicable best practices across all functions and locations. 2. Localize R&D to take advantage of local engineering strengths. For instance, a company might focus R&D in India on soware and IT, in China on electronics, and in Brazil on metal parts and low-cost components. 3. Seek opportunities to cut sourcing costs according to individual markets’ strengths. For instance, a company might focus its sourcing in Brazil on processed metal, in India on IT and engineering services, in China on electric modules and electronics, and in Russia on selected body parts. A final note: Although this report focuses on the BRIC markets because of their size and potential for helping auto companies recover sales volumes lost to the crisis, it is important to recognize that our analysis of effective strategies for achieving deep localization in the BRIC markets can be applied with equal success in other rapidly developing economies, such as Argentina, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, or Thailand. In all such markets, unique constellations of local capabilities and market tastes require individually tailored approaches. That said, the smaller sales volumes in some RDE markets can exacerbate scale-related localization challenges. The BRIC countries, in which localization is relatively advanced, can serve as a valuable source of best practices and potential synergies with other RDE markets. 4. Orchestrate BRIC manufacturing to optimize cost, localization, and quality. Use the global-scale approach to profit from volume-related cost advantages, the broken-chain approach to drive localization, or the isolatedempire approach to improve quality and cost. T B C G For Further Reading The Boston Consulting Group publishes other publications on capturing global advantage and on the automotive industry that may be of interest to readers of this report. Some recent examples are listed here. Batteries for Electric Cars: Challenges, Opportunities, and the Outlook to 2020 A Focus by The Boston Consulting Group, January 2010 From Crisis to Opportunity: How Global Challenger Companies Are Seeking Industry Leadership in the Postcrisis World A White Paper by The Boston Consulting Group, September 2009 The 2009 BCG 100 New Global Challengers: How Companies from Rapidly Developing Economies Are Contending for Global Leadership A report by The Boston Consulting Group, January 2009 The Comeback of the Electric Car? How Real, How Soon, and What Must Happen Next A Focus by The Boston Consulting Group, January 2009 Winning the Localization Game: How Multinational Automotive OEMs and Suppliers Are Realizing the Strategic Potential of China and India A report by The Boston Consulting Group, January 2008 W BRIC A M Note to the Reader Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank all the people who contributed to this report. In researching it, our multinational team of colleagues at BCG conducted more than 250 interviews with senior executives at the leading automotive OEMs and suppliers that are active in the BRIC countries. We spoke with high-ranking individuals at every automotive OEM, at 15 of the top 20 suppliers, and at many tier 2 suppliers—as well as at universities, industry associations, and government institutions. We are particularly indebted to all the people who spoke with us and generously shared their insights into the challenges of achieving deep localization. In addition, we would like to thank the following people: ◊ The executives at the automotive companies with which BCG has worked to shape their localization strategies in the BRIC markets, who kindly allowed us to include our insights from those experiences in this report ◊ The project team of consultants and researchers: Pascal Bruckner, Ilson Dal-Ri, Judith Eimannsberger, Susanne Frick, Jonatas Garcia, Benjamin Gubitz, Kiyotaka Ishige, Nicole Landauer, Bernd Loeser, Karsten Meier, Tobias Mezger, Alex Mittelman, Raphael Pfältzer, Stefan Reiter, Arist von Harpe, Hadi Zablit, and Christiane Zorn ◊ Kathleen Lancaster, for her assistance in writing the report ◊ Barry Adler, Gary Callahan, Kim Friedman, and Sharon Slodki, for their editorial and production assistance For Further Contact If you would like to discuss our observations and conclusions, please contact one of the authors: Nikolaus S. Lang Partner and Managing Director BCG Munich +49 89 2317 4459 lang.nikolaus@bcg.com Stefan Mauerer Project Leader BCG Munich +49 89 2317 4595 mauerer.stefan@bcg.com You may also contact any of our senior industry experts: Marcos Aguiar Senior Partner and Managing Director BCG São Paulo +55 11 3046 3533 aguiar.marcos@bcg.com Arindam Bhattacharya Partner and Managing Director BCG New Delhi +91 124 459 7000 bhattacharya.arindam@bcg.com Ewald Kreid Partner and Managing Director BCG Moscow +7 495 258 34 34 kreid.ewald@bcg.com Xavier Mosquet Senior Partner and Managing Director BCG Detroit +1 248 688 3500 mosquet.xavier@bcg.com Christoph Nettesheim Senior Partner and Managing Director BCG Beijing +86 10 8527 9000 nettesheim.christoph@bcg.com Georg Sticher Senior Partner and Managing Director BCG Munich +49 89 23 17 40 sticher.georg@bcg.com This report was sponsored by BCG’s Industrial Goods and Global Advantage practices. For further information about BCG’s Industrial Goods practice, please contact its global leader, Josef Rick, a senior partner and managing director in BCG’s Düsseldorf office, at rick.josef@bcg.com. For further information about BCG’s Global Advantage practice, please contact its global leader, David Michael, a senior partner and managing director in BCG’s Beijing office, at michael.david@bcg.com. T B C G For a complete list of BCG publications and information about how to obtain copies, please visit our Web site at www.bcg.com/publications. 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