JYD CHINA FERTILIZER MARKET WEEKLY REPORT
November 21, 2014
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Content
Fertilizer Units Operation Rate
Synthetic Ammonia Price and Operation Rate
Urea Price and Operation Rate
Phosphate Price and Operation Rate
Potassic Price and Operation Rate
1
1
2
3
4
Compound fertilizer Price and Operation Rate
Sulfur Price and Operation Rate
Sulphuric Acid Price and Operation Rate
Forecast of China Fertilizer Market
5
6
6
7
China Fertilizer Unit Operation Rate
The daily output of urea averaged at 145,600 mt in China in the week ending November 21st. Phosphatic fertilizer operation
rate dropped slightly due to partial of the small plants in Central China at maintenance. The fertilizer operation rate is predicted to
edge up in the following week, albeit it is to exert little impact on market supply.
China Fertilizer Unit Operation Rate, 2014
Product
Prilled urea
Region
Nov 10th-14th (%)
Nov 17th-21st (%)
Nov 24th -28thE (%)
Total
65.53
66.23
65-68
Shandong
47.11
48.77
47-50
Henan
59.65
57.33
57-60
Anhui
84.10
85.50
83-85
MAP
Total
68.64
64.05
66-66
DAP
Total
74.72
74.05
75-75
Potassium chloride
Total
70.00
68.00
68-68
Sulfur
Total
60-65
65-70
70-75
China Synthetic Ammonia Market
Major Synthetic Ammonia Operation Status
According to JYD, a large majority of China major synthetic ammonia producers have started operating. Specifically, Anhui
Anqing Petrochemical started its liquid ammonia unit on November 18, adding a supply of 450-500 mt per day, and Anhui Zhun
Chemical started to produce on November 17, lifting daily output by 100 mt, which brought total supply in Anhui market to 7,950
mt, rising 23.26% from a week before. Hebei Tianbao Chemical put its liquid ammonia unit into production on November 18,
adding 200 mt/day supply to Hebei market. Shandong Mingshui Chemical was predicted to resume production on November
24, expected to raise market supply in Shandong by 200 mt per day.
China Synthetic Ammonia Plants Turnaround, 2014
Region
Major Producer
Operation Status
Anhui
Anhui Yingshang Xintai Chemical
Turnaround started on Nov 21 and ended on Nov 21, cutting 7,500 mt supply
Hebei
Hebei Tianbao Chemical
Turnaround started on Nov 3 and ended on Nov 18, cutting 3,200 mt supply
Hubei
Sinopec Hubei Branch
Turnaround started on Nov 3 and ended on Nov 21, cutting 9,500 mt supply
Shandong
Shandong Mingshui Dahua
Turnaround started on Nov 5 and ended on Nov 21, cutting 1,500 mt supply
Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd.
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JYD CHINA FERTILIZER MARKET WEEKLY REPORT
November 21, 2014
China Synthetic ammonia price changes
This week, China synthetic ammonia market kept the downtrend, mainly due to increasing supply and weak demand.
According to JYD, plants in regions like Anhui, Jiangsu and Hebei, which were in turnaround, had all recovered production,
lifting market supply by about 1,000 mt per day. However, traders were still slow in winter restocking, with their demand for
liquid ammonia declining rather than rising. The market was obviously plagued by oversupply. China liquid ammonia market
moved lower in the week, barring a slight price gain in Jiangsu due to a unit turnaround at Shilian Chemical.
Synthetic Ammonia Average Prices, 2014
CNY/mt
Time
Shandong
South Shandong
Hebei
Henan
Jiangsu
Anhui
Hubei
Nov 10th-14th
2,475
2,446
2,269.5
2,242
2,358
2,520
2,600
Nov17th-21st
2,386.67
2,440
2,245.5
2,240
2,400
2,510
2,480
WoW (%)
-3.57
-0.25
-1.06
-0.09
+1.78
-0.40
-4.61
YoY (%)
-3.37
-11.88
-9.08
-7.14
-9.43
-8.06
-1.59
Time
Shandong
South Shandong
Hebei
Henan
Jiangsu
Anhui
Hubei
Nov 14th
2,475
2,440
2,272.5
2,240
2,340
2,540
2,600
Nov 21st
2,386.67
2,440
2,237.5
2,240
2,400
2,475
2,400
Change (%)
-3.57
0
-1.54
0
+2.56
-2.56
-7.69
China Urea Market
Major Urea Producers’ Unit Operation Status
According to JYD, some coal-based urea producers had returned to normal operation after the APEC meeting, especially
those large ones in Shandong. Urea supply was sufficient and overall operation rate increased. Hebei Cangzhou Chemical had
stopped production due to tight natural gas supply, reducing supply by 1,700 mt per day, and had no production resumption
plan. Therefore, gas-based producers’ operation rate dropped to some extent.
China Key Urea Plants Turnaround, 2014
Region
Major Producer
Operation Status & Affected Output
Northwest
Inner Mongolia Talent Chemical
Fertilize
It has an annual urea production capacity of 520,000 mt. Unit turnaround started on Oct 25th,
planned to end in late Nov. It will reduce output by 1,700 mt per day
Shandong Mingshui Dahua
Its granular urea units, with an annual production capacity of 400,000 mt, shut down in early Nov,
predicted to cut an output by 500 mt per day. Already ignited, the units are predicted to return to
normal production in the following week. Its prilled urea units remained closed.
Zhejiang Juhua
Production suspended on Nov 10, predicted to affect an output of 600 mt per day; Operation
restarted on Nov 20, producing no more than 500 mt per day.
Hebei Jinshi Chemical
The units closed during the APEC meeting and resumed production successively thereafter, returning
to normal production on Nov 20th.
Hebei Cangzhou Dahua
It has an annual urea production capacity of 500,000 mt. Unit turnaround started on Nov 20th,
predicted to cut output by 1,700 mt per day
Henan Xinlianxin Chemical
No. 4 plant started unit turnaround on Nov 19th, to reduce output by 2,800 mt/day.
Shandong
North China
Central China
Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd.
China Urea Price Changes
China urea market showed no obvious upturn with fragile trading. Though quotations stabilized in most regions, transactions
were subdued. A part of resources in North China and East China were shipped to the Northeast, while some big plants in Henan
were reeling from relatively heavy inventory pressures. Nevertheless, capacity utilization slowed down at the compound fertilizer
plants, offering no strong support for urea demand. China urea market is hard to improve significantly in the short term.
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JYD CHINA FERTILIZER MARKET WEEKLY REPORT
November 21, 2014
China Urea Average Prices, 2014
Time
Shandong
CNY/mt
Anhui
Hubei
Liaoning
Shaanxi
Sichuan
Guangdong
Nov 10th-14th
1,532
1,536
1,564
1,600
1,560
1,660
1,668
Nov 17th-21st
1,516
1,538
1,540
1,600
1,560
1,620
1,652
WoW (%)
-1.04
+0.13
-1.53
0
0
-2.41
-0.95
YoY (%)
-11.09
-7.35
-6.67
-5.88
-2.50
-2.99
-9.23
Time
Shandong
Anhui
Hubei
Liaoning
Shaanxi
Sichuan
Guangdong
Nov 14th
1,520
1,540
1,540
1,600
1,560
1,655
1,650
Nov 21st
1,515
1,530
1,540
1,600
1,560
1,620
1,660
Change (%)
-0.33
-0.65
0
0
0
-2.11
+0.61
China Phosphate Market
China Major Phosphatic Fertilizer Unit Operation Status
This week, China MAP producers’ operation rate slightly dropped, mainly as the units at Hubei Wuhan Zhongdong, Hubei
Chunxiang Chemical and Henan Xinmi Fengyuan Phosphorus Chemical were under maintenance. MAP supply declined 39,000
mt in the week, accounting for 15.14% of the country’s total production.
China DAP producers’ operation rate remained flat, and supply dropped 537,000 mt in the week, taking up 16.68% of the
country’s total output.
China Major Phosphatic Fertilizer Plants Turnaround, 2014
Region
Major Producer
Operation Status & Affected Output
Southwest
Yuntian Chemical
With a DAP production capacity of 2.82 million mt per annum, the plant is producing at
only 80% of capacity, reducing output by 1,500 mt per day.
Hubei Yihua
Its MAP units started transformation from the end of 2013. Only one powder production
line is operational, and the granular facilities are running at 30% of capacity, cutting
supply by 970 mt per day.
Hubei Wuhan Zhongdong
With a MAP production capacity of 350,000 mt per annum, its units shut down in late
Oct and is planned to resume in mid-Dec, to reduce supply by 700 mt per day.
Hubei Chunxiang Chemical
With a MAP production capacity of 150,000 mt per annum, its units started
maintenance on Nov 15 and is planned to resume at the end of the month, to reduce
supply by 300 mt per day.
Henan Xinmi Fengyuan Phosphorus
Chemical
With a MAP production capacity of 100,000 mt per annum, its units halted production
on Oct 25, with resumption date unknown, and it is to reduce supply by 200 mt per
day.
Shandong Mingrui Chemical
With a MAP production capacity of 100,000 mt per annum, its units started
maintenance on Nov 8 and was planned to resume production on Nov 20, to reduce
supply by 200 mt per day.
Central China
East China
Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd.
China Phosphatic Fertilizer Price Changes
In China MAP market, winter restocking merely concentrated in a small scope of regions like the Northeast and Northwest,
and demand from end users was in a lull season. However, capacity utilization at MAP plants in Hubei was rallying. Under
sufficient supply and dull demand, MAP prices, hard to gain further, are predicted to stabilize.
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JYD CHINA FERTILIZER MARKET WEEKLY REPORT
November 21, 2014
China MAP Average Prices, 2014
CNY/mt
Time
Yunnan (N+P: 58%)
Guizhou (N+P: 60%)
Hubei (N+P: 55%)
East China (N+P: 55%)
Nov 10th-14th
1,900-2,000
2,000
2,100
2,150-2,200
Nov 17th-21st
1,900-2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150-2,200
WoW (%)
0
+50
0
0
YoY (%)
+18.18
+17.14
+16.67
+15.96
In China DAP market, neither domestic demand nor export volume has seen a large increase despite desirable policies next
year. Furthermore, DAP exporting, used to concentrate in only several months, now can occur at any time of the year under the
integration of custom tariff. Prices thus tend to stabilize on lack of support from concentrated demand. The outlook for China
DAP market remains blurry in 2015 due to overcapacity, in spite of incentives. Under faltering winter storage activities, market
prices for urea and potassic fertilizer will be flagging, and compound fertilizer prices are likely to maintain autumn’s low levels.
Therefore, there are still concerns about whether DAP prices could keep at the current high levels throughout the winter.
China DAP Average Prices,2014
CNY/mt
Time
Yunnan
Guizhou
Hubei
East China
North China
Northwest
Northeast
Nov 10th-14th
2,650
2,600
2,650
2,800
2,800
2,850
3,000
Nov 17th-21st
2,600
2,600
2,650
2,800
2,800
2,850
3,000
WoW (%)
-1.89
0
0
0
0
0
0
YoY (%)
+17.78
+15.38
+17.78
+19.15
+21.74
+14
+17.65
Time
Yunnan
Guizhou
Hubei
East China
North China
Northwest
Northeast
14th Nov
2,650
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,800
2,850
3,000
21st Nov
2,600
2,600
2,650
2,800
2,800
2,850
3,000
Change
-50
0
-50
0
0
0
0
Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd.
China Potassic Fertilizer Market
China Major Potassic Fertilizer Unit Operation Status
China potassic fertilizer plants kept stable production. Yanhu Potassic Fertilizer maintained a daily output of 10,000 mt,
shipping two cargoes per day, while Zangge Potassic Fertilizer produced 3,000 mt per day, delivering two cargoes every three
days.
China Major Potassic Fertilizer Turnaround, 2014
Region
Major Producer
Operation Status & Affected Output
Northwest
Golmud Zangge Potassic Fertilizer
With one unit under maintenance, output declined to 3,000 mt per day from 4,000 mt per
day
Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd.
China potassic fertilizer price changes
This week, China potassium chloride market was under narrow fluctuations amid sluggish demand, and more traders were
heard to make concessions in selling. The coming potassium chloride market is predicted to keep stable under unit maintenance at
stated-owned plants and unclear outlook for big contract negotiations.
China potassium chloride (KCl) Average prices, 2014
Time
CNY/mt
China-made KCl Crystals
Russia-made KCl Crystals
Russia-made KCl Crystals
K2O: 60%
Northeast
Ports
Nov10th-14th
2,080
2,050
2,200
Nov17th-21st
2,080
1,990
2,180
WoW (%)
0
-2.9
-0.9
YoY (%)
+2.5
-2.9
-1.8
Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd.
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JYD CHINA FERTILIZER MARKET WEEKLY REPORT
November 21, 2014
China potassium sulfate market remained flat overall this week. Potassium sulfate prices are likely to vibrate downwards in
the near future, owing to low operation rate of compound fertilizer units and rapid expansion in potassium sulfate production
capacity.
China Potash Average Prices, 2014
CNY/mt
Luobupo Potash
Foshan Qingshang
Chuanhua Qingshang
Shijiazhuang Hehe
delivered to station
K2O: 50%
K2O: 50%
K2O: 50%
Nov 10th-14th
3,600
3,600
3,600
3,550
Nov 17th-21st
3,600
3,600
3,600
3,550
WoW (%)
0
0
0
0
YoY (%)
+19.2
+12.5
+14.2
+10.9
Time
China Compound Fertilizer Market
China Major Compound Fertilizer Plants Operation Status
China Major Compound Fertilizer Turnaround, 2014
Producer
Operation Status
Hubei E’Zhong Chemical
Operation rate recovered to 80%.
Hubei Xiangyun Chemical
Tower unit restarted on Nov 15, with other units’ restarting date unknown.
Jiangsu Huachang Chemical
Units shut down on Nov 13 and restarted on Nov19, now running at 30-40% capacity.
Shandong Hongri Akang
Operation rate was 50% after units restarting production.
Jiangsu Zhongdong Fertilizer
Operation rate was 50%.
Wuxi Taipingyang Chemical
Units ran at low capacity due to weakening demand.
Anhui Hong Sifang Operation rate was 70%.
Henan Xinlianxin Chemical
Some units were under maintenance, and average operation rate was 30-40%.
Hebei Shuanglian Compound Fertilizer
Two units were under operation.
Sichuan Xindu Compound Fertilizer
Operation rate rose to 70-80%.
Anhui Zhongyuan Chemical
Units started maintenance, recovering date unknown.
Shandong Gufengyuan Fertilizer
A temporary turnaround was arranged.
Chia Tai Group
Units started maintenance, recovering date unknown.
Jiangsu Xinyi Hengyuan Fertilizer
Units shut down on Oct 24, with production resumption date unknown.
Shandong Shengdeyuan Fertilizer
Units shut down in early Nov, planned to restart in late Nov.
Jiangsu Luling Chemical Industry
Units shut down, with recovering date unknown.
Henan Junma Chemical Industry
Units ran at low operation rate.
Wuxi Baoli Fertilizer
Operation rate was 50%.
China Compound Fertilizer Price Changes
China Compound Fertilizer Average Prices, 2014
CNY/mt
Time
Shandong
Hebei
Jiangsu
Hubei
Anhui
Nov 10th-14th
2,250
2,250
1,760
2,200
1,850
Nov 17th-21st
2,200
2,200
1,730
2,150
1,800
WoW (%)
-2.2
0
-1.7
-2.3
-2.7
YoY (%)
+2.3
0
0
+4.8
0
Time
Shandong
Hebei
Jiangsu
Hubei
Anhui
2014-11-14
2,200-2,300
2,150-2,250
1,750-1,780
2,150-2,250
1,800-1,900
2014-11-21
2,150-2,250
2,150-2,250
1,700-1,750
2,150-2,250
1,800-1,850
Change (%)
-50
0
- (30-50)
0
-50
Remark: Jiangsu and Anhui: Cl: 45%; N: 15%; P: 15%; K: 15%; Shandong, Hebei and Hubei: S: 45%; N: 15%; P: 15%; K: 15%;
Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd.
P-5
JYD CHINA FERTILIZER MARKET WEEKLY REPORT
November 21, 2014
This week, some compound fertilizer producers issued pricing policies for winter restocking. They mostly set fixed prices for
compound fertilizer (S: 45%) at CNY2,150-2,250/mt, with some pricing low at CNY2,100/CNY. However, traders were not active
in payment, dragged by an unsteady feedstock market. China compound fertilizer market is predicted to show narrow volatility in
the following week, and market players are suggested to watch closely on large producers’ pricing policy for stock replenishment in
winter.
China Sulfur Market Weekly Report
China Main Sulfur Units Operation Status
Although sulfur companies in North China have restored to work, Puguang Gas Field, in short of Fuling shale gas, has lowered
its operation rate, under the vast impact of which, the average domestic sulfur unit operation rate still maintained at a low level.
China Main Sulfur Units Turnaround, 2014
Region
Company
Abnormal Operation Status & Loss
East China
Gaoqiao Petrochemical
Sulfur units halted production early September, planned to operate late November, with an
estimated loss of about 12,500mt during the overhaul.
Southeast
Beihai Petrochemical
Sulfur units halted production till middle November for overhaul, with an estimated loss of about
10,500mt and maintained a small supply.
China Sulfur Price Change
Domestic sulfur market goes through ups and downs. On the one hand, sulfur price transacted at a lower price and there’s
a noticeable decine in new orders in November as chemical fertilizer producers in Hubei Province made bulk purchase in the
middle of October. On the other hand, general quotation rises from domestic and overseas market will sustain a future transaction
price rise.
China Sulfur Price Change, 201
CNY/mt
Date
North China
East China
Central China
South China
Southwest
Last Week Average
1,100-1,150
1,150-1,180
1,130-1,180
1,150-1,180
1,160-1,220
This Week Average
1,120-1,150
1,150-1,160
1,130-1,180
1,160-1,200
1,200-1,220
WoW (%)
+0.9
-1.69
0
+1.69
+1.7
YoY (%)
+21.7
+21.21
+30.5
+35.17
+49.12
Date
North China
East China
Central China
South China
Southwest
Nov 14th, 2014
1,100-1,150
1,180-1,190
1,120-1,180
1,150-1,180
1,130-1,220
th
Nov 21 , 2014
1,150-1,160
1,150-1,180
1,130-1,180
1,170-1,200
1,200-1,220
Date
North China
East China
Central China
South China
Southwest
Weekly Price Change
+50
+120
+30
+50
+30
China Sulphuric Acid Market Weekly Report
China Main Sulfuric Acid Units Operation Status
Recently, domestic sulfuric acid units maintained an operation rate of about 70%, which eased the imbalance of supply and
demand. As units now undertaken overhaul return to work later on, supply in some regions may see an obvious rise. The market
trend is up to the downstream sulfur demand.
China Main Sulfur Units Turnaround, 2014
Region
Company
Abnormal Operation Status & Loss
North China
Shandong Humon Smelting
Production halt for overhaul since Oct 20th, planned to restart late November; lose 3,000mt/d.
North China
TanshanBaoshun
Old unit (250,000 mt/yr) undertaken production halt for overhaul early October, restart time pending,
lose 600 mt/d.
South China
YunfuGuangye Pyrite
One unit undertaken overhaul, planned to restart on Nov 28th
Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd.
P-6
JYD CHINA FERTILIZER MARKET WEEKLY REPORT
November 21, 2014
China Sulfuric Acid Price Change
This week, domestic sulfuric acid market went on in the direction as predicted, with regional adjustment of about CNY20/
mt. As of now, 98% of domestic sulfuric acid prices at CNY283/mt, almost unchanged from last month, up by about 57.5% year
on year. The current sulfur feedstock market is strong, will probably lead to a sulfuric acid price rise in a long term, but influence
from the downstream chemical fertilizer and chemical engineering markets is still negative. Traders from both upstream and
downstream all are reluctant to transact, only purchase on demand. The sulfuric acid market will maintain a stable level in a
short term, JYD suggests traders to follow the market trend.
China Sulfur Average Price Change, 2014
CNY/mt
Region
Grade
Weekly Average
WOW (%)
YOY (%)
Hebei
98% Smelting acid
280-330
0
+10
Henan
98% Smelting acid
280-300
0
+27.27
Shandong
98% Smelting acid
320-360
-3.03
+73.68
Jiangsu
98%Sulphuric acid
310-350
+3.33
+130.7
Anhui
98%Sulphuric acid
330-370
0
+175
Hubei
98% Smelting acid
310-320
0
+200
Gansu
98% Smelting acid
90-120
+3.22
+28.57
Forecast of China Fertilizer Market
This week, the domestic chemical fertilizer market remained weak, with mild price decline in nitrogen fertilizer, phosphatic
fertilizer and potassic fertilizer. According to JYD, next week, the nitrogenous fertilizer price will see a slight rebound.
Forecast on China Fertilizer Prices, Dec 1st-5th 2014
CNY/mt
Product
Price F (Nov 17th-21st)
Actual Price (Nov 17th-21st)
Price F (Nov24th-28th)
Prilled Urea
1,450-1,650
1,460-1,670
1,500-1,680
Synthesis ammonia
2,150-2,550
2,200-2,470
2,200-2,520
MAP
2,050-2,200
2,050-2,200
2,050-2,200
DAP
2,600-2,700
2,600-2,700
2,600-2,700
Russia-made KCl Crystals
2,180-2,220
2,180-2,200
2,180-2,200
Product
Price F (Nov 17th-21st)
Actual Price (Nov 17th-21st)
Price F (Nov24th-28th)
Potash 50%
3,500-3,600
3,450-3,550
3,500-3,550
CI-NPK（15:15:15）
1,750-1,850
1,700-1,850
1,700-1,850
S- CI-NPK（15:15:15）
2,100-2,300
2,100-2,250
2,100-2,250
Sulphur
1,150-1,200
1,150-1,200
1,150-1,200
Sulfuric acid
300-360
310-360
310-360
Remark: CI-NPK（15:15:15）refers to chlorine compound fertilizer (N: 15%; P: 15%; K: 15%); S- CI-NPK（15:15:15）refers to sulfur compound fertilizer (N:
15%; P: 15%; K: 15%)
Data Source: JYD Information Co., Ltd.
Focus of China phosphatic fertilizer market
1. Market players should pay attention to whether the corporate value added tax will recover next year. Given a recovery, it will
drive up phosphatic fertilizer plants’ production cost.
2. Market players should keep a watchful eye on winter restocking policies and sales in the compound fertilizer market.
Focus of China potassic fertilizer market
1. Focus should be put on downstream compound fertilizer producers’ procurement in winter.
2. Market participants are suggested to watch closely on negotiations over big import contracts in 2015.
3. As it gets cold, attention should be paid to domestic potassic fertilizer producers’ unit closures and future shipments.
P-7
JYD CHINA FERTILIZER MARKET WEEKLY REPORT
November 21, 2014
Focus of China compound fertilizer market
1. Value added tax policies for fertilizer in 2015 are worthy of notice.
2. Focus should be put on various downstream enterprises’ winter restocking policies and new pricing mechanism.
3. It is important to know about market trends for upstream urea, MAP and potassic fertilizer.
4. Compound fertilizer plants’ unit operation rate is also noteworthy.
Focus of China sulfur/sulfuric acid markets
1. Sinopec Puguang Gas Field, China’s key sulfur producer, has no inventories, which firmly bolsters the sulfur market.
2. Sulfur inventories at China’s various ports dropped further by 350,000 mt on a yearly basis in the week ending Nov 21,
lending sustaining strong support to the sulfur market.
3. Ammonium phosphate plants, which shut down previously, have successively resumed production, as winter restocking kicks
off all comprehensively. End users’ demand for sulfur looks to rally.
4. Taiwan Formosa Plastics Corporation’s and Indian Reliance’s selling prices for sulfur tick higher overall, leading to a price
inversion between foreign quotes and port stock prices. Traders are unwilling to sell at current prices in anticipation of a price
growth.
P-8