Morning Debt Notes : 11-Oct-12
Fixed Income Research
FX Rate
Berita Korporasi
10-Oct
10-Oct
(-1 day)
USD/IDR
9,633
9,604
29.000
EUR/USD
1.29
1.29
-0.01
GBP/USD
1.60
1.60
0.00
USD/JPY
78.31
78.25
0.06
USD/SGD
1.23
1.23
0.00
USD/THB
30.73
30.66
0.07
USD/MYR
3.07
3.07
0.00
Chg (pt.) % Chg
PT Modernland Realty Tbk (MDLN) berencana terbitkan obligasi
senilai Rp500 miliar dengan tenor 3-5 tahun tahun ini. Dengan
penerbitan obligasi ini, maka rasio utang terhadap modal (debt to equity
ratio akan menjadi 0,5 kali. Hasil emisi obligasi akan dipakai Rp300
miliar untuk mengakuisisi lahan dan sisanya untuk modal kerja.
Sebelumnya, perseroan berniat menambah cadangan lahan seluas 1.000
ha dalam lima tahun ke depan. MDLN telah mengakuisisi lahan seluas
400 ha senilai Rp246 miliar di awal tahun ini.
World Indexes
Last
% YTD
JCI
4,280.0
-0.2
0.0
KLCI
1,656.9
-2.5
-0.2
+8.2
Stock Ex. Thailand
1,289.4
-3.1
-0.2
+25.8
+12.0
Strait Time
3,028.3
-5.5
-0.2
+14.4
Hang Seng
20,996.4
+76.8
+0.4
+13.9
Nikkei
8,596.2
-173.4
-2.0
+1.7
Shanghai
2,109.1
-10.8
-0.5
-4.1
SENSEX
18,631.1
-162.3
-0.9
+20.6
Dow Jones
13,345.0
-128.6
-1.0
+9.2
FTSE 100
5,776.7
-33.5
-0.6
+3.7
DAX
7,205.2
-29.3
-0.4
+22.2
232
0.291
231
0.29
230
0.289
229
(Rptn)
0.288
228
0.287
227
0.286
225
0.285
224
0.284
41
09
3
41
09
4
41
09
5
41
09
6
41
09
9
41
10
0
41
10
1
41
10
2
226
Foreign Ownership in Gov't Securities (LHS)
Percentage (RHS)
PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) melakukan penawaran
umum dua obligasi dengan jumlah pokok sebanyak-banyaknya
Rp500 miliar. Obligasi yang ditawarkan terdiri dari Obligasi Surya
Semesta Internusa I/2012 seri A dan seri B dengan tingkat suku bunga
tetap. Hasil emisi obligasi akan dipakai untuk penambahan modal,
pengembangan lahan industri, dan pelunasan utang perusahaan.
Ulasan Pasar
Indeks kemarin kembali ditutup melemah. Indeks IDMA turun
9bps turun dari posisi 108,76 ke posisi 108,85. Indeks HSBC kemarin
juga ditutup melemah tipis dari posisi 696,43 ke posisi 696,40. Yield
tenor pendek 3 tahun dan 10-tahun ditutup di level yang sama dari
penutupan sebelumnya di level 5,43% dan level 5,90%. Sedangkan
yield tenor panjang 30 tahun naik 1bps ke level 6,54%.
US Treasury Note 10-year kembali turun sebesar 3bps dan
ditutup di level 1,68%. Fluktuasi 10-year note relatig stabil seiring
dengan hasil result corporate earnings 3Q12 yang akan diumumkan
dalam waktu dekat. Kekuatiran terhadap turunnya corporate earning
melebihi dari estimasi membuat pasar equity melemah dan pasar
obligasi menjadi alternatif untuk investasi. Saham Alcoa, produsen
aluminium terbesar AS, turun 4,6% setelah menurunkan forecast
terhadap permintaan global untuk logam. Kekuatiran terhadap
melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi global memberikan tekanan untuk
pasar equity di Amerika.
Pasar obligasi hari ini diperkirakan akan mengalami penurunan
namun terbatas. Hal ini dipicu oleh nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar
yang masih volatile, karena permintaan USD dalam negri masih tinggi
dan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di China turut mempengaruhi
pergerakan rupiah. Selain itu, keputusan Standard & Poor’s memangkas
peringkat utang Spanyol dan diturunkan dari level “BBB+” menjadi
“BBB-“ semakin meningkatkan kekuatiran investor global. Kondisi ini
akan mempengaruhi pergerakan pasar obligasi Indonesia yang
diprediksi melemah karena saat ini investor lebih tertarik ke US
treasuries sebagai salah satu safe haven product.
Sumber: Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily, Kontan, Bloomberg
Morning Debt Notes : 11-Oct-12
Government Debt Securities Ownership
Global Bonds
Total
10-Oct
Date
Foreign
Percentage
(-1 week)
(- 1 month)
17-Sep-12
240.25
808.00
29.73%
Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
18-Sep-12
241.51
808.00
29.89%
Fed Fund Rate
0.25
19-Sep-12
808.00
807.50
30.04%
29.98%
US T-Bill 1M
0.06
20-Sep-12
242.72
242.12
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.05
0.05
US T-Bill 3M
0.05
0.08
0.08
0.06
21-Sep-12
241.70
807.50
29.93%
0.08
2-Year
0.26
0.26
0.23
24-Sep-12
241.02
807.50
0.24
29.85%
5-Year
0.65
0.66
0.60
25-Sep-12
26-Sep-12
241.32
240.47
0.69
807.50
807.50
29.88%
29.78%
10-Year
1.68
1.71
1.62
1.76
30-Year
2.88
2.93
2.82
27-Sep-12
241.07
2.92
812.80
29.66%
Indonesia USD Bond Yield
Source: DMO
Auction Result
Total Nominal Awarded
Period
Quarter I/ 2012
Rp60.387 trillion
Quarter II/ 2012
Rp41.370 trillion
Quarter III/ 2012
Rp41.400 trillion
10-Oct
(-1 day)
5-Year
1.46
1.49
1.50
1.57
10-Year
2.15
2.04
2.11
2.34
30-Year
4.33
4.33
4.34
4.47
243.89
211.83
257.73
195.23
10-Oct
(-1 day)
(-1 week)
(- 1 month)
5-Year CDS
Money Market
10-Oct
Excluding Sukuk Retail, ORI, and International Bonds
JIBOR
*) Target
O/N
4.13
4.12
4.12
4.12
Source: DMO
1M
4.61
4.60
4.60
4.64
3M
4.90
4.89
4.90
4.93
LIBOR
Government Debt Securities Schedule (Tentative)
1M
0.21
0.22
0.22
0.22
Date
Type
Maturity
3M
0.34
0.35
0.35
0.39
25-Sep-12
ON
5, 10 year
6M
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.68
SPN
1 year
IFR/PBS
5, 25 year
10-Oct
(-1 day)
(-1 week)
(- 1 month)
SPN-S
6 month
Indonesia Interest Rates
ON
15, 20 year
BI Rate
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
SPN
3 month, 1 year
Deposit 1M
5.28
5.31
5.22
5.28
IFR/PBS
5, 25 year
Lending
14.24
14.34
14.41
14.80
SPN-S
6 month
Source: Bloomberg
ON
5, 10 year
SPN
1 year
Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
ON
5, 25 year
Maturities (Year)
10-Oct
(-1 day)
(-1 week)
(- 1 month)
SPN
6 month
1
5.18
5.22
5.24
5.26
ON
15, 20 year
2
5.29
5.30
5.35
5.43
SPN
3 month, 1 year
3
5.43
5.43
5.45
5.58
IFR/PBS
5, 25 year
4
5.48
5.48
5.54
5.61
SPN-S
6 month
5
5.57
5.56
5.58
5.70
6
6.39
5.71
5.73
5.80
7
5.81
5.79
5.81
5.83
8
5.86
5.84
5.85
5.90
9
5.90
5.87
5.88
5.95
2-Oct-12
9-Oct-12
16-Oct-12
23-Oct-12
30-Oct-12
13-Nov-12
20-Nov-12
Source: DMO
Inflation rate (%)
2011
2012
MoM
YoY
MoM
YoY
10
5.90
5.90
5.89
5.95
January
0.89
7.02
0.76
3.65
15
6.31
6.30
6.31
6.33
February
0.13
6.84
0.05
3.56
20
6.65
6.64
6.65
6.65
March
-0.32
6.65
0.07
3.97
30
6.54
6.53
6.53
6.51
April
-0.31
6.16
0.21
4.50
May
0.12
5.98
0.07
4.45
June
0.55
5.54
0.62
4.53
Last Trade Govt Bonds
July
0.67
4.61
0.70
4.56
Series
Maturity
Coupon
August
0.93
4.79
0.95
4.58
FR58
15-Jun-32
September
0.27
4.61
0.01
4.31
FR59
15-May-17
October
-0.12
4.42
FR61
November
0.34
4.15
December
0.57
3.79
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
Source: Bloomberg
10-Oct
Bid Price
Offer Price
8.25%
117.75
118.25
7.00%
106.75
107.25
15-May-22
7.00%
108.00
108.50
ORI008
15-Oct-14
7.30%
103.00
103.25
SR004
21-Jun-15
6.25%
100.85
101.35
Source: NISP Sekuritas
2
Morning Debt Notes : 11-Oct-12
Value
Fair Price
FR 23
Coupon
11.00%
Maturity Date
15-Dec-12
Maturity
0.19
4.02
4.71
-0.70
Expensive
101.11
FR 33
12.50%
15-Mar-13
0.44
4.48
4.76
-0.28
Expensive
103.27
FR 19
14.25%
15-Jun-13
0.69
4.60
4.81
-0.21
Expensive
106.25
FR 49
9.00%
15-Sep-13
0.95
5.12
4.85
0.27
Cheap
103.73
FR 20
14.28%
15-Dec-13
1.20
5.09
4.90
0.19
Cheap
110.63
FR 51
11.25%
15-May-14
1.62
5.22
4.97
0.25
Cheap
109.53
FR 26
11.00%
15-Oct-14
2.04
5.24
5.04
0.20
Cheap
111.29
FR 27
9.50%
15-Jun-15
2.72
5.28
5.14
0.14
Cheap
110.77
FR 30
10.75%
15-May-16
3.65
5.41
5.28
0.13
Cheap
117.72
FR 55
7.38%
15-Sep-16
3.99
5.37
5.33
0.05
Not Significant
107.18
FR 60
6.25%
15-Apr-17
4.58
5.43
5.40
0.03
Not Significant
103.36
FR 28
10.00%
15-Jul-17
4.83
5.53
5.43
0.09
Not Significant
118.94
FR 32
15.00%
15-Jul-18
5.85
5.64
5.55
0.09
Not Significant
146.06
FR 38
11.60%
15-Aug-18
5.93
5.65
5.56
0.09
Not Significant
129.79
FR 48
9.00%
15-Sep-18
6.02
5.64
5.57
0.07
Not Significant
117.11
FR 36
11.50%
15-Sep-19
7.03
5.71
5.68
0.03
Not Significant
132.97
FR 31
11.00%
15-Nov-20
8.22
5.76
5.79
-0.03
Not Significant
133.28
FR 34
12.80%
15-Jun-21
8.81
5.82
5.84
-0.02
Not Significant
146.82
FR 53
8.25%
15-Jul-21
8.89
5.82
5.85
-0.03
Not Significant
116.25
FR 61
7.00%
15-May-22
9.74
5.86
5.92
-0.06
Not Significant
107.81
FR 35
12.90%
15-Jun-22
9.82
6.14
5.93
0.21
Cheap
150.79
FR 43
10.25%
15-Jul-22
9.91
6.03
5.93
0.10
Cheap
131.62
FR 46
9.50%
15-Jul-23
10.92
5.99
6.01
-0.02
Not Significant
127.35
FR 39
11.75%
15-Aug-23
11.01
5.99
6.02
-0.03
Not Significant
145.18
FR 44
10.00%
15-Sep-24
12.11
6.15
6.09
0.05
Not Significant
132.79
FR 40
11.00%
15-Sep-25
13.12
6.20
6.16
0.04
Not Significant
142.76
FR 37
12.00%
15-Sep-26
14.14
6.25
6.21
0.03
Not Significant
153.40
FR 56
8.38%
15-Sep-26
14.14
6.26
6.21
0.04
Not Significant
119.94
FR 42
10.25%
15-Jul-27
14.98
6.35
6.26
0.09
Not Significant
138.07
FR 47
10.00%
15-Feb-28
15.58
6.37
6.29
0.08
Not Significant
136.17
FR 52
10.50%
15-Aug-30
18.11
6.58
6.40
0.18
Cheap
143.18
FR 54
9.50%
15-Jul-31
19.04
6.59
6.44
0.15
Cheap
133.03
FR 58
8.25%
19.97
6.60
6.48
0.13
Cheap
119.58
FR 45
9.75%
15-May-37
24.96
6.77
6.63
0.14
Cheap
137.66
FR 50
10.50%
15-Jul-38
26.14
6.80
6.65
0.14
Cheap
147.07
FR 57
9.50%
15-May-41
29.01
6.79
6.72
0.07
Not Significant
135.16
FR 62
6.38%
15-Apr-42
29.94
6.49
6.73
-0.24
Expensive
95.41
15-Jun-32
YTM
Yield Curve
Spread to YC
Yield
Yield Curve Estimate
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
0
4.99
9.99
14.99
19.99
24.99
29.99
Maturities (year)
Source: Bloomberg, NISP Sekuritas Estimates
3
Morning Debt Notes : 11-Oct-12
PT NISP Sekuritas
OCBC NISP Tower Lt. 21 (Head Office)
Jl. Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav. 25
Jakarta 12940 Indonesia
Phone. (021) 2935 2788 (hunting)
Fax. (021) 5794 4095
Email: info@nispsekuritas.com
Website: www.nispsekuritas.com
RESEARCH TEAM
Ade Putra
Elin Tjhai
Marcy Geovani
Research Analyst
Research Analyst
Research Analyst
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elin.tjhai@nispsekuritas.com
marcy.geovani@nispsekuritas.com
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Wiyanto Saadah
Head of Fixed Income Division
Direct : (021) 2935 2727
Phone. (021) 2935 2721 - 27
Fax. (021) 5794 4095
Email: wiyanto.saadah@nispsekuritas.com
Elfina
Kristianty Firmawati
Haryono Halim
Rachmawaty
Senior sales
Sales
Sales
Sales
elfina@nispsekuritas.com
kristianty.firmawati@nispsekuritas.com
haryono.halim@nispsekuritas.com
rachmawaty@nispsekuritas.com
DISCLAIMER:
This report was produced by PT NISP Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The Information contained in this report
has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable and the options, analysis, forecasts, projections and expectations contained in
this report are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that
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4