ANNUAL REPORT ANALYSIS 5 JUN 2014 Infosys BUY INDUSTRY IT SERVICES CMP (as on 5 Jun 2014) Rs 3,041 Target Price Rs 3,871 Focus on turnaround STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) Infosys’ FY14 Annual Report reveals management’s intent to revive growth and margin trajectory. The company has lagged peers like TCS/HCL Tech on revenue growth by a wide margin. Infosys intends to increase focus on ‘Business IT’ services (~61% of revenues) and large deal wins. It also intends to regain margin leadership by improving various operating parameters like utilisation, pyramid correction and rationalization of support functions. Key takes from FY14 annual report are as follows. 52 Week high / low Nifty 7,474 Sensex 25,020 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg/Reuters INFO IN/INFY.BO No. of Shares (mn) 574 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ nn) 1,746 / 29,439 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 4,260 Rs 3,850 / 2,343 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (20.4) (9.3) 23.6 Relative (%) (38.0) (28.6) (4.3) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 15.94 FIs & Local MFs 13.66 FIIs 42.10 Public & Others 28.30 Source : BSE Madhu Babu madhu.babu@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7316 d) Infosys Cloud EcoSystem Hub : This enables clients to establish and manage a scalable, hybrid cloud eco-system. driving client spends and Infosys is seeing resilient demand for SMAC technologies across key verticals. Company sees new channels of revenue growth emerging from these initiatives. Report mentions Infosys developing tools and platforms to enable automation and hence improve efficiencies in delivery. This will reduce effort and improve productivity. Some of the market differentiators in the delivery model include : b) Infosys Global Agile and Vscrum methodology : These methodologies enable company to deliver projects efficiently on a global scale with better utilisation of resources across its global centres. c) Infosys Big Data Edge : The solution enables enterprises to analyse BigData to discover relevant information and develop Insights. Client wins : Infosys added 238 clients during the year and total client base at the end of year stands at 890. Infosys derived 97.7% of the consolidated revenues from repeat business in FY14. Infosys had 13 clients which contributed to over USD 100mn per year in revenues for FY14. Infosys expanded its global delivery footprint by adding a new centre in Netherlands. In India, Infosys commenced work for new campuses in Indore, Mohali, Noida and Nagpur. New tools for Delivery Efficiency : The Annual a) IT Service Management Platform : An end to end solution that automates ticket resolution and IT service management. Infosys indicates that ITSM has the potential to achieve 25% service automation. Growth Drivers : Digital transformation has been FINANCIAL SUMMARY - CONSOLIDATED (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Net Sales 403,520 501,330 540,078 596,201 EBITDA 115,580 136,340 148,953 165,232 94,210 108,670 120,524 134,024 164.9 190.2 211.0 234.6 P/E (x) 18.5 16.4 14.5 13.0 EV / EBITDA (x) 13.0 10.7 9.4 8.1 RoE (%) 25.7 24.4 23.6 22.9 PAT Diluted EPS (Rs) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters INFOSYS : ANNUAL REPORT ANALYSIS Strategy : Business strategy evolved during the year is focused on achieving three objectives (1) Cost optimization (2) Sales efficiency and (3) Delivery efficiency. Infosys indicated of focusing on reducing the operational costs to deliver margin expansion. Employee costs account for 70-80% of the total operating expenses for Infosys. Management indicated of improving pyramid structure, boosting utilisation rates and streamlining business support functions to improve efficiencies. Infosys has already started reaping the benefits of cost optimisation. EBIT margin expanded to 25.5% as on 4QFY14 as compared to 23.5% in 1QFY14. In a bid to improve delivery efficiency, Infosys intends to strengthen its IP-based solutions to delink revenues from effort. Company is also focusing on re-energizing the sales team by enabling them with better systems, training, processes and metrics. Products and Platforms : Infosys has created a new subsidiary named EdgeServe Systems Ltd to transfer the existing products and platforms (excluding Finacle). This would enable Infosys to increase focus and provide operational flexibility. It operates the products and platforms business under the Edge suite and has over 90 clients. Some of the products developed include Infosys Assist Edge, Infosys Brand Edge, Infosys Credit servicing platform, Infosys Digital Edge, Infosys Interact Edge, Infosys Digital Edge, Infosys Procure Edge, Infosys Trade Edge. Infosys Labs : During the fiscal year FY14, Infosys Labs filed 79 unique patent applications at various jurisdictions. R&D expenditure for FY14 stood at Rs 8.73bn (~2% of standalone revenues). Growth trends for FY14 : Infosys delivered 11.5% USD revenue growth in FY14 (vs. 5.8% in FY13). Healthcare (up 50% YoY), Life Sciences (up 22% YoY) and Manufacturing (up 16% YoY) delivered higher growth on the vertical front for FY14. India (up 38% YoY) and Europe (up 18% YoY) delivered higher growth on geographic front. IMS (up 14.6% YoY), Testing (up 15.2% YoY), Consulting and SI (up 18% YoY) delivered higher growth on the service front. Metrics : Though gross addition for FY14 stood at 39,985 employees, net addition was a minuscule 3,717 employees. Attrition rate stands at 18.7% compared to 16.3% for the previous year. Exit headcount at the end of FY14 stands at 160,405 employees. The group has 93 global development centres as at Mar-14, of which 36 are located in India, 18 in North and South America, 20 in the APAC region and 19 in Europe. Investment in subsidiaries : During the year, Infosys (standalone) invested Rs 1.36bn and Rs 0.75bn in Lodestone and Infosys Public Services subsidiaries. Financial Metrics : Capex (consolidated) for the year FY14 stood at Rs 25.3bn. A major part of the capex (Rs 17.63 bn) was in Infrastructure development for the business. Cash and liquid assets on balance sheet as at Mar-14 were Rs 302.7bn vs. Rs 239.4bn in the previous year. Dividend policy : Company paid Rs 63/sh dividend for FY14. Dividend payout ratio (Including dividend tax) for FY14 stands at 40% (vs. 30% for the previous year). Infosys intends to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40% over the coming period. Page | 2 INFOSYS : ANNUAL REPORT ANALYSIS View We model 8.2/11.3% USD revenue growth for FY15E/FY16E. However, Infosys’ growth in FY15 is likely to be much lower than peerset. We expect TCS/HCL Tech to deliver 15.5/14.2% USD revenue growth for FY15. Recent key exits in top management have been weighing on the stock. We believe that some of these exits have also led to middle level churn which could weigh on near term growth. Infosys is currently trading at 25% discount to TCS owing to lower revenue growth and EBIT margin. Considering the prolonged volatile operating performance of Infosys, we think re-rating will take a while. An impending CEO change could lead to further uncertainty in the near term. However, this could also be a turning point in the positive direction. Attractive valuations (12.7x FY16 EPS) and strong cash position on balance sheet (Rs 302.5bn, Rs 528/sh) offer comfort. Our TP is Rs 3,871/sh (16.5x FY16E EPS). Maintain BUY. Page | 3 INFOSYS : ANNUAL REPORT ANALYSIS GEOGRAPHY WISE REVENUES Europe and India delivered higher growth on geographic front. Higher growth in Europe is owing to full impact of Lodestone consolidation USD MN North America Growth (%) Europe Growth (%) India Growth (%) Rest of the world Growth (%) Total Revenues Growth (%) FY10 3,164 7.2 1,106 (9.9) 57 (9.5) 477 13.1 4,804 3.0 FY11 3,944 24.7 1,301 17.6 133 133.2 663 38.9 6,041 25.7 FY12 4,468 13.3 1,531 17.7 155 17.0 839 26.6 6,994 15.8 FY13 4,604 3.0 1,712 11.8 152 (1.8) 930 10.9 7,398 5.8 FY14 5,004 8.7 2,016 17.8 210 38.1 1,019 9.5 8,249 11.5 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research VERTICAL MIX OF REVENUES BFSI vertical has shown uptick in growth in FY14. Manufacturing delivered higher growth aided by full impact of lodestone consolidation. Healthcare and Life sciences verticals delivered strong growth on a smaller base USD MN BFSI Growth (%) Manufacturing Growth (%) Retail and CPG Growth (%) Transport and Logistics Growth (%) Healthcare Growth (%) Life sciences Growth (%) Energy and Utilities Growth (%) Communication services Growth (%) Others Growth (%) Total Revenues Growth (%) FY12 2,453 1,438 1,096 124 111 271 411 715 376 6,994 FY13 2,508 2.2 1,627 13.2 1,206 10.0 130 4.3 115 4.1 320 17.8 380 (7.6) 719 0.6 394 4.9 7,398 5.8 FY14 2,765 10.3 1,887 16.0 1,299 7.7 142 9.7 173 50.1 392 22.6 423 11.4 686 (4.5) 482 22.3 8,250 11.5 Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Page | 4 INFOSYS : ANNUAL REPORT ANALYSIS SERVICE LINE MIX IMS, Testing and BPM delivered strong growth on the service front Consulting and SI delivered 18% YoY growth in FY14 owing to full impact of Lodestone consolidation USD MN FY12 FY13 FY14 Business IT services 4,410 4,657 5,076 5.6 9.0 1207 1301 2.7 7.8 1514 1519 1588 418 0.3 509 584 21.8 14.6 621 716 13.1 15.2 Growth (%) a)Application Development b) Application Maintenance Growth (%) c) Infrastructure Management Services Growth (%) d) Testing Services Despite much hype, Products and Platform delivered a muted 3.3% YoY growth 1176 Growth (%) 549 Growth (%) e)Business Process Management 325 Growth (%) f) Others 190 183 (0.6) 238 246 270 2,180 3.2 2,320 2,738 6.4 18.0 404 421 435 4.3 3.3 7,398 8,249 5.8 11.5 Growth (%) Products and Others Growth (%) Total Revenues Growth (%) 433 17.0 184 Growth (%) Consulting & System Integration 370 14.0 (3.1) Growth (%) g) Product engineering 4.6 6,994 10.0 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Page | 5 INFOSYS : ANNUAL REPORT ANALYSIS HEADCOUNT FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Total Employees (Consolidated) 130,820 149,994 156,688 160,405 S/W professionals (IT Services and Consulting) 106,696 122,337 123,666 125,344 92,183 105,957 112,440 111,986 Banking Product Group 6,220 8,139 7,249 6,254 Trainees 8,293 8,241 3,977 7,104 Support and sales 6,011 7,134 8,388 7,904 Infosys BPO 18,113 20,523 24,634 27,157 Gross additions - consolidated 43,120 45,605 37,036 39,985 Net additions - consolidated 17,024 19,174 6694 3,717 Laterals hired - consolidated 15,883 14,966 16,781 12,247 LTM Attrition (Standalone) 17.0% 14.7% 16.3% 18.7% Voluntary LTM Attrition (Standalone) 15.5% 14.0% 15.0% 17.5% Onsite 29.4% 30.4% 30.5% 30.6% Onsite 70.6% 69.6% 69.5% 69.4% Including trainees 70.3% 66.9% 67.0% 72.3% Excluding trainees 78.2% 74.1% 70.7% 76.4% Billable Attrition remained on an uptrend over the past two years Infosys showed steep improvement in utilisation rates in FY14 owing to company’s focus on improving operating efficiencies Effort (IT Services and Consulting) Utilization measures (IT Services and Consulting) Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Page | 6 INFOSYS : ANNUAL REPORT ANALYSIS INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E (Rs mn) Revenue (US$ mn) 6,994 7,398 8,249 8,929 9,937 SOURCES OF FUNDS FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Growth (%) 15.8 5.8 11.5 8.2 11.3 Share Capital 2,860 2,860 2,860 2,860 2,860 Average Exchange Rates 48.2 54.6 60.7 60.5 60.0 Reserves 331,750 395,110 472,440 543,694 622,929 337,340 403,520 501,330 540,078 596,201 Total Shareholder’s Funds 334,610 397,970 475,300 546,554 625,789 Net Sales Growth (%) 22.7 19.6 24.2 7.7 10.4 188,710 241,510 307,670 331,325 366,579 Selling and Marketing Expenses 17,570 20,340 26,250 26,594 29,214 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS Administrative Expenses 23,900 26,090 31,070 33,206 35,176 APPLICATION OF FUNDS 107,160 115,580 136,340 148,953 165,232 EBIDTA Margin (%) 31.8 28.6 27.2 27.6 27.7 CWIP 1,730 3,680 3,420 3,420 3,420 EBIDTA Growth (%) 19.5 7.9 18.0 9.3 10.9 Goodwill 9,930 19,760 21,570 21,570 21,570 Cost of Sales EBIDTA Depreciation EBIT 9,370 11,290 13,740 14,712 14,972 97,790 104,290 122,600 134,241 150,260 28.9 25.8 24.5 24.9 25.2 EBIT Margin (%) Other Income PBT 19,040 23,590 26,690 32,000 34,600 116,830 127,880 149,290 166,241 184,860 Tax 33,670 33,670 40,620 45,716 50,837 APAT 83,160 94,210 108,670 120,524 134,024 2,190 0 0 Exceptional item RPAT 83,160 94,210 106,480 120,524 134,024 145.5 164.9 190.2 211.0 234.6 21.8 13.3 15.4% 10.9% 11.2% EPS EPS Growth(%) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Deferred Taxes 120 1,190 640 640 640 1,090 1,490 3,230 1,300 1,300 335,820 400,650 479,170 548,494 627,729 54,090 64,680 78,870 86,158 91,186 Long Term Provisions Net Block Investments 3,890 21,330 32,760 32,760 32,760 LT Loans & Advances 27,220 35,530 50,290 41,520 45,620 Trade Receivables 77,550 95,180 111,620 121,185 133,778 Cash & Equivalents 205,910 218,320 259,500 323,964 386,934 Current Assets 310,680 349,030 421,410 486,669 566,332 24,560 30,820 47,450 42,697 43,715 21,770 29,910 40,140 48,115 52,554 1,330 2,130 3,790 3,790 3,790 Other current Liabilities Trade payables ,Unearned Revenues Provisions Current Liabilities 47,660 62,860 91,380 94,602 100,059 Net current assets 263,020 286,170 330,030 392,066 466,273 3,160 5,030 12,520 12,520 12,520 335,820 400,650 479,170 548,494 627,729 Misc expenses and others TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Page | 7 INFOSYS : ANNUAL REPORT ANALYSIS CASH FLOW KEY RATIOS (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E 83,160 94,210 106,480 120,524 134,024 PROFITABILITY (%) (12,107) (12,006) (14,445) (16,750) (18,090) 71,053 82,204 92,035 103,774 115,934 9,370 11,290 13,740 14,712 14,972 (10,410) (10,720) (190) 498 70,013 82,774 107,425 118,984 (16,410) (32,470) (27,450) Reported PAT Non-operating & Interest Income PAT from Operations Depreciation Working Capital Change OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) Capex+ Acquisitions Free cash flow FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E GPM 44.1 40.1 38.6 38.7 38.5 EBITDA Margin 31.8 28.6 27.2 27.6 27.7 EBIT Margin 29.0 25.8 24.5 24.9 25.2 (11,237) APAT Margin 24.7 23.3 21.7 22.3 22.5 119,669 RoE 27.4 25.7 24.4 23.6 22.9 (22,000) (20,000) RoCE 27.2 25.6 24.2 23.5 22.8 43.7 38.3 34.3 34.2 36.4 53,603 50,304 79,975 96,984 99,669 ROIC 7,907 (6,034) (8,135) 16,750 18,090 EFFICIENCY (8,503) (38,504) (35,585) (5,250) (1,910) Tax Rate (%) 60 10 - - - Investments INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) FY12 Share capital Issuance Debt Raised (890) 28.8 26.3 27.2 27.5 27.5 Asset Turnover 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 Unbilled Days 20.3 22.0 20.5 20.0 20.0 Dividend (23,270) (31,230) (31,430) (49,270) (54,789) Debtor Days 62.8 63.2 60.0 60.0 60.0 FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (23,210) (32,110) (31,430) (49,270) (54,789) Creditor days 16.3 15.2 10.9 10.9 10.9 38,300 12,160 40,410 64,464 62,970 Cash Conversion Cycle 66.7 70.0 69.5 69.1 69.1 950 250 770 - - 0 0 0 0 0 205,910 218,320 259,500 323,964 386,934 (0.63) (0.55) (0.56) (0.61) (0.83) - - - - - NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) Effect of change in Exchange rates Closing Cash & Equivalents Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Debt/EBITDA (x) Net D/E Interest Coverage Ratio VALUATION EPS (Rs/sh) 145.5 164.9 190.2 211.0 234.6 CEPS (Rs/sh) 162 185 210.4 236.7 260.8 BV (Rs/sh) 586 696 832.0 899.8 1110.5 DPS 47 43 63.4 73.8 82.1 P/E 21.0 18.5 16.4 14.5 13.0 P/BV 5.2 4.4 3.7 3.4 2.7 14.3 13.0 10.7 9.4 8.1 4.6 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.2 Dividend Yield (%) 1.6% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.7% FCFE/Mcap(%) 3.1% 2.9% 4.6% 5.7% 5.7% OCF/EV 4.6% 5.5% 7.4% 8.7% 9.0% FCF/EV 3.5% 3.3% 5.5% 7.2% 7.5% EV/EBITDA EV/Revenues Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Page | 8 INFOSYS : ANNUAL REPORT ANALYSIS RECOMMENDATION HISTORY Infosys 4,500 Date 12-Jul-13 9-Oct-13 11-Oct-13 11-Jan-14 17-Feb-14 15-Apr-14 5-Jun-14 TP 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 2,000 CMP 2,804 3,110 3,275 3,556 3,655 3,260 3,041 Reco BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY Target 2,944 3,247 3,675 3,870 3,871 3,871 3,871 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. 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