INdustry and Company Analysis Program Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Oepartement voor Toegepaste Economische Wetenschappen Dekenstraat 2 B-3000 Leuven "i!l' 016/22.75.17 Onder:oeksrapport Nr. 8601 THE HERFINDAHL INDEX AND CONCENTRATION RATIOS REVISITED By Leo E. Sleuwaegen, Raymond R. De Bondt and Wim V. Dehandschutte< Feb ~- u a ~- y l 9 8 6 Revised May 1986 t·Jette:iJk depot D/1986/23'/~_S/2~ THE HERFINDAHL INDEX AND CONCENTRATION RATIOS REVISITED. By Leo E. Sleuwaegen, Wim V. Raymond R. De Bondt and Dehandschutter. Introduction One issue of long standing in both economics organisation) and and workable measurement intrinsically cause it is behavioral in difficult related vial problems these to arise practice, market concerns power. empirically the Market grasp, structural correct power if is only be- (concentration) and characteristics of the industry which related to some attributes • of to both (collusion) turn may be ficiency 1 antitrust (industrial each other. In addition, if market power measures of economic welfare, such as nontri- are related to allocative ef- Notwithstanding a continuing debate on aspects of issues (in the field of titrust laws are applied, industrial organisation) an- relying among other things on mea- sures of concentration . ...................... 1 Cf. efficiency vs. market power controversy. See e.g. Demsetz. Two systems of belief about monopoly, in Goldschmid, Mann and Weston (Eds.), Industrial concentration, the new learning, Boston;··r::rtt.ie & Brown, (I974Y·:··Is4=I·s4; ··c;-ya:·rke·:· Davies and waters 0 n The profitability-concentration relation: markey power or efficiency?, 3 2 ' 4 3 5 - 4 50 . The • • Journal of Industrial Economics, (1984), j 0 n • • •••••••••• •••••••••••••••••• • no 0 0 • •• • • •• ••••••••••••• •• -•n • r..:,. The 1982 and 1984 modifications of the Justice include a shift ment's merger guidelines2 and intuitively "clear" four-firm depart- from the concentration simple ratio (C4) that equals the total market share of the four largest suppliers, to the somewhat more (or Herfindahl-Hirschman) rage of all of the sophisticated Herfindahl (H) index that equals a weighted ave- "revelant" firms' market shares, with each market share given a weight equal to its own value. From a practical point of view it would appear worth- wile to have a clear, operationally useful, understanding of the H index of concentration. A number of authors already made important progress towards "explaining" the H index, by relating it mathematical numerical Through to manipulation it has been examples shown and that no guarantee exists for a one to one relationship between the H and C4 indices. Two industries with different market distributions can have the same H value. number appears typically will useful characteristics to correspond a report and relation between the in this implications Ck And with a given H range of C4 paper more of share the values. fully on It the correspondence (k firm concentration ratio) and the 2 See, for example Bronsteen, A review of the revised Mar ger Guidelines, 'T...l:l~ .. ~~~t~E~.'?.~ ... ~~ll~~~.~ ( 1984) , 2 9, 613-652. 3 For this Journal, see Weinstock, Using the Herfindahl Index to measure concentration, The Antitrust Bulletin (1982), 27, 285-3ol; Miller, The--He. r"flnd:ahi·=-!IIrsc"hma!1-· Index as a market structure variable: an exposition for antitrust practitioners, The Antitrust Bulletin (1982), 2 7' 5 93-618; Weinstock' s"()"ffi"e"""""TTt"""Fie"=kn"ow"ii"""""P""r""(j"i)e rt i es 0 f the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index: problems of translation and specification, 'T...~.~·-····~·~·~·~ . ~rust Bulle.. tt~. ( 1984), 29, 705-717. H index. ship has revealed a h<?.E. r.?. shaped relation- Data analysis between several the index H characteristics and that concentration can ratios, with contribute to a better boundaries of the understanding of these measures. In the following section the correspondence are and U.S. The relevance for data. discussed and illustrated with Ck-H Belgian interpreting and valuating H values and for assessing economic performance is discussed next after which the relation with the U.S. Department of Justice's merger guidelines is clarified. Relating the Herfindahl index to concentration ratios. Suppose that and that firms a are relevant ranke~ industry is according to served by .n their of sales, with the largest firm being firm l. size firms, in terms The Herfindahl index of concentration H is n H =~ Si 2 with Si denoting the market share of the i= l i-th largest firm. It can be verified that 0 S H S l H = and l/n + cr 2 n with cr2 equalling the variance in the market shares, i.e n (l/n) [ ~ (Si - l/n) 2 ]. All firms having equal market share i=l means that cr 2 =0 and then H = l/n. The k firm concentration ratios Ck, k=l,2,3,4, ... sentially give no weight to the market share of firms For example, indicate = C2 + s1 respectively s2 the and = C4 two- and s1 + + s2 four-firm es- > j + S3 k. S4, concentration ratio. Both the Ck share distribution surprising clear, in that they however, that functional (one from partial while and H indices are a reflection of the market the the somehow in to one) index are general and hence related. there takes the size the it does not is not it is exist a calculated distribution complete is Likewise relation since the Ck information on H industry of firms distribution into account. Using the distributions it that contains extreme is all possibilities nevertheless possible of market possible to define a H values for given Ck share range values 4 This Ck-H range turns out to have the shape of a tl..?.E. ~.' • since the range of possible H values increases as the magnitude of Ck (for a given correspondence is k) becomes dependent on larger. both The the number horn shaped of firms 4 Or all possible Ck values for given H magnitudes. in the industry (n) and on the number of firms (k) included in the Ck computations. For a "large" number of firms in the industry speaking for n ~ oo) relatively simple, the boundaries of the H-Ck (strictly relation are i.e. H 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 ~ I 0.5l I 0.4 I 0.3 X 0.2 0.1 0 0 0 Fig.l. The 0.2 horn shaped 0.4 0.6 boundaries 0.8 for the C4-H relation 5 In general for n firms and a Ck ratio, which cannot be smaller than k/n, the boundaries are for n > k, min H = Ck 2 /k + (l-Ck) 2 /(n-k); max H =max {[1-(n-l)(l-Ck)/(n -k)J2 + (n-1) [(1-Ck)/(n-k)]Z, Ck/k}, except for a fraction if the maximum is Ck/k and k(l-Ck)/Ck is non -integer. A proof is given elsewhere, see Sleuwaegen and Dehandschutter, The critical choice between the concentration ration and the H index in assessing industry performance, forthcoming in The .J:. ?..~.E..l?.'?:. ~ .....<?...f ~-.l?. 9.:..L.1:.:5...!..E...~.~}-.... Xs:<?..!:l?.I_ll:.~.<?.. ::> , C 19 8 6 ) . min H = Ck 2 /4 and for max H = Ck/k for Ck:Sl/k except for a is not an integer number. This mathematical fraction range if k/Ck turns out number of firms few firms n~ro, Ck~l/k max H = Ck 2 say n=l5, not to in the n=lO, very industry, :s: n 15 be :S 4. sensitive except This is n=5 in the H-C4 to the if there actual are only a illustrated for diagram of fig. k = 4, 1. The boundaries of the horn shaped correspondence shown 1 define in Fig. observed, given for C4 the range because of purely concentration given industries may firms but it any boundaries case mathematical ratio. with the number of in of possible H values change, actual say or with the will corresponding The always to a large reasons, with a H and C4 pattern year to year from level lie that can be or of aggregation, within number of the horn firms. For some cross sections the relation between the actual H and C4 values may whatsoever be approximately exists for this linear, to be the but no typical case. point is well underscored by Fig. 2 and 3. pattern for clearly widened to 1981.- 3 digit The nevertheless, NACE more sectors disperse as it should, horn less relation clear revealing between now, is an and the C4 would and artifact This The Belgian horn pattern in from 1981 1975 stayed within the boundaries indicated. Published data for the U.S. are guarantee 3 digit sectors appear H values. of the to (see Fig. suggest This, limited it data a linear should set 4) be which H 0.9 0.8 0.7 0 0.6 0.5 Dll 0 0 0 0 0.4 0 ,0 0 0 0.3 0 X 0.2 0.1 0 0 0 Fig. 2. 0.2 The horn 0.4 relationship 0.6 for (source: unpublished statistics Statistical Institute). 0.8 Belgian from industries the Belgian (1975) National H 0.9 0.8 0.7 0 0.6 0 I 0 o 0.5 o o 0 m 0 0.4 0 0 0.3 0 X 0.2 0. t 0 0 0 Fig. 3. 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 The horn relationship for Belgian industries (1981) (source: unpublished statistics Statistical Institute) from the Belgian National H 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0 03l X 0.2 0. 1 -1 0 Fig. I o 0 0.2 4. 0.4 0.6 0.8 The horn relationship for U.S. (source: Nelson, R.L. Manufacturing Industries Yale Univ. Press) industries (1956) (1963), Concentration in the of the United States, New Haven, H I 1 0.9 J ::jI I o.s 0.51I 0.4 1 O.J lI 0.2 -i 0.1 J 0~~~~~~=-----~----~---0 Fig. 5.: 0.2 0.-/. 0.8 0.6 The horn boundaries for k = l, 2, Ck 4 and n->cn s tops at reasons) = .87 C4 ( pres um a b l y because of con f i dent i a l i t y 6 • The horn shaped correspondences between H and other Ck ratio's follow a pattern that is illustrated by Fig. figure indicates relationships Within small the boundaries in industries with the corresponding set number of firms in for the H-Cl, large number of boundaries the illustrated earlier in Fig. a industry H-C2 the 5. This and H-C4 of firms. range for follows the a pattern 1. Interpreting H and Ck values The horn shaped boundaries reveal some regularities than can be further interpreted. number of firms origin (OX possible in The horn boundaries for a finite all have their origin at a Fig. levels of l). H This and Ck line represents that can be industry with a number of firms equal to n To see this, nations, the note that, line which H = C<t/4. OX line through for The corresponding all H minimum observed = example for represents the and l/H = concentration in an k/Ck. the H-C4 C<t the combi- values for levels all 6 A referee pointed out that unpublished material prepared by the U.S. Department of Justice contains similar horn shaped correspondence for U.S. industries. The investigation of the boundaries and their implications, however, appears to have not been explored previously. 1U have the same numbers equivalent. The numbers equivalent ne is the number of equally sized firms that corresponds with a given concentration measure value. number of firms For that given concentration measure value. the example, = satisfies 0.2 numbers for numbers l/neH e qui valent It is the lowest possible equivalent = 4 I C4 = 0.2 0.4 the H for = 5, while for C4 = = l 0 . In general n e H or neH ne c neH and n e c solve: H = 1/neH and = C4 4/nec Those values of H and C4 for which the ne values are equal, satisfy When n urn b e r s the actual e q u i v a l en t , number t hen of t he firms equals mark e t is the calculated e qua 11 y di s t r i but ed and consequently the concentration is minimal for that given n. Both for industries below the values the are line U.S. and Belgium characterized H = C4/4 by (below corresponding with a C4 the and C4 OX majority values H in Fig. lower than of 2, or 3 3 digit that lie and 4). equal H to C4/4 can be considered "low" while H values larger than the C4/4 value judged "high". of the Indeed, industry can < C4 /4 if H intuitively it means that be ~--~.Y...:=.. I.?. to be the market L share of the four firms in the largest firms, industry is not the inequality between very large as the the following example illustrates. Sl S2 S3 S4 ss S6 S7 sa Sg SlO C4 H cr2 .28 .20 .19 .13 .07 .04 .03 .02 .02 .02 . 80 .18 .008 .34 .21 .14 .11 .07 .04 .03 .02 .02 .02 .80 .20 .010 .80 ')- .015 .44 .11 .16 More value (1/n is however not (0.80/4). have a also with a H C4 precisely because small will only if the 10 an this firm is ·~!) clear is larger than that a its minimum firms in the industry have The inequality between the the share of 0.80, precise sense industry with a = 0 . 20 . Now t here = 0.80 and unequal there :L. . .~.~. sl:.......?.. ~...!X...-...~...f .~ . it firms having a in firm is the larger number 0. 2 0. 0). .01 .01 that the is not able to tilt the H value above ) A five mi n i mum > large positive variance (a 2 0.20 0.18 largest very 10 hence, (cr 2 with the four shares = of H shares = n = l/10 = 0.10), unequal market firms, if precisely, concentration level .055 .025 .02 .08 .09 a small of firms in n variance is industry with C4 10 0.80 shares H value be = a2-ljn 2 the the market is and very if H index larger • But H value below minimum H index in the 5 firm industry with C4 7 The reasoning is based on dH/dn shares. in the enough will = 0.80 would f i r m indus t r y variance the = market in market lower large a lowers the variance increase is C4 than = 0.80 7 . and ln the Calculating H values from Ck The horn values correspondences from a 1 imi ted also allow knowledge of the H index somehow gives picture of the industry, market shares, of possible industry could H values that can very low (see Fig. if you know the firms, you don't need the possible H values • The "complete" into account C2 values Somewhat market to H all The spread for example accompany 5) 8 shares. a more takes needs to be qualified. state: largest since is it calculate market intuition that because to shares know lie within a the in an crudely one of two other the shares, narrow bound that can be calculated. The range of possible H values that can accompany Ck is dependent on k and this can be explored to approximate H. If one is interested in obtaining the H index for a particular industry and allows for a maximum error of 1 percent, it 8 The maximum spread of possible H values is 6. s; max H(n~ro) - min H(n~ro) with max H(n~ro) and min H(n4ro) defined on p. 5. For Ck < 1/n 6. s; Ck/k - Ck2 approximately. This range increases as k gets large~ but is small for k = 2 anyway. For Ck ~ k, k ~ 2, 6. s ((k -1)/k) Ck 2 and the maximum spread of H values is minimal for k = 2! ., ........'· / suffices to sum the squares of the k largest amount HR given by the following expression 9 HR = 0.5 [(1-Ck) where, as before, Ck (Sk = Sl firms and an . + (1-Ck)/(n-k)] + S2 + ... + Sk. The number of firms k required in the computation is implicitly given by the condition: Sk(l-Ck) - HR ~ (*) 0.01 This implies that in many cases the need for information on market shares may be very small making the computation of H indices very easy. For example, of 50 firms but where 0.07, ss .... ' = approximation account of Sl H the = 0.40, = ss 0 shares = 0.30, s2 To H-index only the market 9 The H index, = take an industry composed obtain it an suffices of the three S3 = 0.10, almost to = perfect take largest S4 into firms. n ~ Si 2 , can be written asH= Hk + Hn-k, i=l k where Hk ~ = n Si2 and Hn-k = ~ S l. 2 • If Sk (the market i=l i=k+l share of the k largest firm) is known, straightforward application of the transfer-principle (see Hannah and Kay, p. 22) implies: max Hn-k = (1-Ck)Sk + (~ 2 - ~)Sk 2 , where~ is the fraction implied by the division in the first term. Similarly, min Hn-k = (l-Ck) 2 /(n-k). The possible spread of H values is max Hn-k - min Hn-k. The midpoint is (max Hn-k +min Hn-k)/2. The condition (*) ignores the small fraction ~ and takes a 0.01 % deviation upwards and downwards from this midpoint. Hannah and Kay, Concentration in modern industry, Theory, Me as u rem en t and f"h'e'"'""'u'K"""'""ifx"i~e·:r···_ce·nc·e·:--·---L·oiidon·;··---·T}i:"e"'''Ma"c"M:C'Cian"' . 7··y--:--···--······--·-···--·--···--···--·--·----·······-----······--·-····--··----· . . . . . . . F'·:r·e·s-·s--·~····----·ri·ff7 Using the method outlined above, computing HR fo~ the three largest firms yields: = 1/2 HR [(1-0.80)(0.10 + 0.004)] = 0.0104 implying that the precision condition is met: ~ (l-0.8)0.1- HR 0.01 The corresponding H index approximately equals: H = (0.4) 2 + (0.3) 2 + (0.1)2 + 0.0104 = 0.2704 The horn correspondence and economic performance Assessment of possible welfare losses in an industry on the basis of one concentration measure may be misleading, view of the horn correspondence and established in economic theory. Static misallocations and excess profits because of market power, increases, will even independentlylo. industry with a tend the if This low to does be larger firms in not mean, H necessarily will as the the H index industry however, act that be accompanied an with 10 See Dansby and Willig, Industry Performance Gradient Indexes , A.I.Il.~.E-~~?.:.~......~.~-g~_g_f.ll..~.~----~~.Y..~~-~-, (June 19 7 9) , 6 9, 2 4 9 -260. small with welfare a losses 1 higher C4 1 and Indeed if the a low H leading ~. t:l..X. be four accompanied firms were collude, excess profits will tend to be high as welll2. low H were to be accompanied with a low C4 to If a (Ck) there would be no need to look beyond H. To achieve an operational interpretation of values H without reference or knowledge of the C4 1 the several regions of the horn correspondence can be helpful to achieve guidelines for antitrust analysis. The U.S. Department of Justice's new merger guidelines One of the most noted modifications that resulted from the 1982 revision of the merger guidelines was the adoption of the H index instead of the four-firm concentration ratio as a first The indicator of possible exercise of market primary that the H distribution argument index for reflects firm of this change better sizes in was the C4 power. observation than the the the industry. actual Another important argument brought forward by the Justice Department '"''""'''' >••>••••o•o•••••••••-<n•>< ''''''''''''''""'''''''''''''''''''''''-''''''''""'-''''' ''''''"''' ll As would be suggested, for example, by the contribution o f S t i g 1 e r , A t he or y o f o 1 i gop o l y , !.. <?...~E_f.l.t:i.. .l::.......?...f.... ~. 9.._1...~..!.~. <?. a l ~.£g.~. 9...~X· (Febr. 1964), 72. 12 See also Clarke, Davies and Waterson, opus. cit. and Sleuwaegen, On the nature and significance of collusive price-leadership, International Journal of Industrial .. . §.l.. . . .9..!::_g_~-~ ~ ~.! ~.g-~_, c19 s6")··-;. . . . 4. . . . .(.Iii . . . .P'.r"e's"s'}·:··. ··--.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . is the greater decision predictability rules concerning of its whether or merger are clearly specified in terms index and the decisions not to since the challenge a of the post merger H- resulting increase of the H-index. The report states : The Department divides the spectrum of market concentration as measured by the HHI into three regions that can be broadly characterised as unconcentrated (HHI below 1000), moderately concentrated (HHI between 1000 and 1800) and highly concentrated (HHI above 1800). An empirical study by the Department of the size dispersion of firms within markets indicates that the critical HHI thresholds at 1000 and 1800 correspond roughly to four-firm concentration ratios of 50 ~~ and 70 %, respectively. Although the resulting regions provide a useful format for merger analysis, the n um e r i cal d i v is ions s u g g e s t great e r pre c is i on than is possible with the available economic tools and information. Other things being equal, cases falling just above and just below a threshold present comparable competitive concerns". the Comments on H-index has industry when changes have probusiness to using argued benefit the C4 ratio the H-index that a is the use of non-competitive classified more the more the largest does not, contrary shares are equall3. This common a according competitive firms' these division of the interpretation, non-change of indicates the the spectrum necessaril guidelines "winners" considered less concentrated, "loserstt (the more ·································-·······-···-···········-··························-··"······· - in imply judging (those a loosening mergers. industries to or a Figure 6 which are the dotted line zones) and the concentrated, the dashed line 13 See, for example, A Loosening of Merger Rules, Week, (May 17, 1982). zones) Business 1·.:.:.:: resulting from the switch index thresholds. industries tresholds, defined from C4 Comparing according thresholds the to the to highly C4 or the new H- concentrated the H upper it should indeed be observed that the H 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0. f C4 0 0.2 0 Fig. 0.4 0.6 0.8 6 The horn relationship and the tresholds of the Justice Dept. for both the C4 (1968 guidelines) and the H index (1982 guidelines) illustrated with U.S. 1956 data (Nelson (1963)). actual (1958 number of VS) losers. distribution of firms But as distributions necessarily be the case (anymore). would imply a larger change this need not JC: However, in view of measures, concentration and the new evidence tresholds constitutes treshold clearly some adoption the progress. delineates characterized by high H index, a on welfare The H-index upper region as well of of as losses H index industries high Ck values, related under either collusive or non-collusive behaviour to unwanted possible allocative inefficiencies. Conclusions There between exists the a horn Herfindahl shaped index and correspondence the k firm relation concentration ratios that allows to : in an define the range industry with of possible H values given Ck ratios (or that can exist alternatively the range of possible Ck'S with a given H); -interpret better changes in Hand Ck, H values may be equated with magnitudes since high (low) larger (smaller) than Ck/k; - possibly approximate the range of possible H values if partial observation are available; on say market shares of leading firms - interpret the new merger guidelines, the horn shaped correspondence do not, "loosening" in line of merger policy, with recent evidence but on are, the which in view of in principle, mean a better than before, relationship between welfare losses and structural concentration measures. The discussion suggested that the focus on in H. of fact Given the horn shaped correspondence it may make little sense to existing insights on restrict welfare losses associated with either collusion or independent behavior, makes sense to relate H to the corresponding C4. boundaries employed in the new merger guidelines appear to do precisely this. In fact it the implicitly