My Best Idea for Teaching a Tough Concept: Sums and Differences of Random Variables Josh Tabor joshtabor@hotmail.com What I hope to show… 1. 2. It is better to start with an interesting question than a boring formula Simulation is a powerful tool for estimation— and discovery Speed Dating Suppose that the height M of male speed daters follows a Normal distribution with a mean of 69.5 inches and a standard deviation of 4 inches and the height F of female speed daters follows a Normal distribution with a mean of 65 inches and a standard deviation of 3 inches. What is the probability that a randomly selected male speed dater is taller than the randomly selected female speed dater that he is paired with? Example from the Annotated Teacher’s Edition for The Practice of Statistics 4e by Starnes, Yates, and Moore Speed Dating On your calculators, generate the height of a randomly selected Male speed dater On your calculators, generate the height of a randomly selected Female speed dater TI-84: Math: Prb: RandNorm(69.5,4) TI-84: Math: Prb: RandNorm(65,3) Who is taller?? Speed Dating Now, we will each generate 100 speed dating couples (well, we can at least generate their heights…) In the heading of L1, enter RandNorm(69.5,4,100) In the heading of L2, enter RandNorm(65,3,100) What should we do next? Speed Dating How can we estimate P(M – F > 0) without doing a simulation? We need to know the distribution of M – F. To Fathom! Speed Dating Screen Shot (just in case…) Speed Dating Screen Shot (just in case…) Speed Dating What did we learn about the distribution of M – F? Shape: Approximately Normal Center: Mean = 69.5 – 65 = 4.5 Spread: SD = 42 + 32 = 5 Speed Dating Rules for the difference of two independent random variables, X and Y: Mean: 𝜇𝑋−𝑌 = 𝜇𝑋 − 𝜇𝑌 SD: σ= X −Y σ +σ 2 X 2 Y Note: Just like the Pythagorean Theorem only works for right triangles, this formula only works when the variables are independent. Speed Dating…at a Circus? What do we know about the sum of two independent random variables? That is, what if a randomly selected female were to stand on the head of a randomly selected male? What is the distribution of M + F? To Fathom! Speed Dating…at a Circus? Screen Shot (just in case…) Speed Dating…at a Circus? Rules for the sum of two independent random variables, X and Y: Mean: 𝜇𝑋+𝑌 = 𝜇𝑋 + 𝜇𝑌 SD: σ= X +Y σ +σ 2 X 2 Y Note: Just like the Pythagorean Theorem only works for right triangles, this formula only works when the variables are independent. Extension 1 From a student: What about the product of two random variables? Not a standard topic in intro stats! To Fathom! Extension 1 Screen Shot (just in case…) Extension 1 Rules for the product of two independent random variables, X and Y: Mean: SD: µ XY = µ X µY σ XY = σ σ +σ µ +σ µ 2 X 2 Y 2 X 2 Y 2 Y 2 X SD formula courtesy of Dr. Roy St. Laurent, Northern Arizona University Extension 2 What about the sum of more than 2 random variables? Suppose that the weights of apples are Normally distributed with a mean of 6 ounce and a standard deviation of 1 ounce. If you were to repeatedly select 9 apples at random and find the sum of their weights, what are the mean and standard deviation of the sum? Extension 2 Shape: Should be approximately Normal Mean = 6+6+6+6+6+6+6+6+6 = 54 SD = 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 = 9= 3 Extension 2 Screen Shot (just in case…) Thanks! Have questions? Want the powerpoint? Email me: joshtabor@hotmail.com