Pergamon S0264-8377(96)00029-4 Land Use Policy, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 25-39, 1997 Copyright ca 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0264-8377/97 $17.00 + 0.00 Economic restructuring and land use planning in Hong Kong Anthony Gar-On Yeh Since the late 1970s, economic restructuring associated with deindustrialization and increased unemployment has affected many cities in the world, especially those in the old industrial regions (Massey and Meegan, 1978, p. 273; Martin et al., 1986; Goe et al., 1991, p. 559). This has led to many inner city problems (Danson et al., 1980, p. 193) and caused many local governments to pay particular attention to economic development. Past urban planning practices and land use policies have proved unable to cope with the challenge of economic restructuring. New urban planning practices and land use policies are often used to promote economic development. These range from the provision of different types of land and buildings, monitoring and registration of vacant properties, to relaxing development control (Sellgren, 1991, p. 341). An employment land use policy which deals with the quantity, quality, and promotion of land which can generate employment has also been used (Adams et al., 1993, p. 151). Measures have been designed to deal with the rehabilitation of derelict industrial land caused by deindustrialization (Roberts, 1994). As local governments are keen to lure mobile capital into their own localities, urban planning is becoming more facilitative and subservient to the demands of capital (McGuirk, 1994, p. 287). Although different in form and nature, economic restructuring is also Anthony Gar-On Yeh is with the Centre occurring in some cities in the newly industrialized economies in Asia. In of Urban Planning and Environmental Singapore, the shortage of labour has encouraged the economy from Management, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong [Tel: (852) low-cost labour intensive industries to high-value-added industries and 2859-2721; Fax: (852) 2559-0468]. services (Ho, 1994, p. 33). This has led to greater state intervention in The author would like to thank the financial support of the Hong Kong Research order to maximize labour and land resources and a greater regional Grant Council for an industrial location division of labour with its neighbouring countries, especially in the Singastudy in which this paper is based. pore-Johor-Riau growth triangle. Rapid increases in wages, labour disputes, currency revaluation, and high financial costs resulging from high interest rates and a valuable financial structure has triggered industrial restructuring in the Seoul metropolitan region (Park, 1994, p. 527). As a result, there has been a decline in labour-intensive industries, increases in subcontracting of production, and the relocation of labour-intensive industries to regions outside Seoul. The problems created by economic restructuring in the cities in the NIEs are different and not as severe as those faced by the cities in Europe and North America. Their economies are still relatively healthy and growing, although at a slower rate. Because of this, the inner city problems Due to the northward migration of its industries to China, Hong Kong has lost its position as a major manufacturing centre in Asia. It has undergone rapid economic restructuring since t h e late 1980s and is transforming itself into a financial and service centre. Economic restructuring in Hong Kong is mainly due to the adoption of the 'open door' policy in China in 1978 which provided opportunities for Hong Kong manufacturers to establish plants in China. Not only has this had a major impact on the development of Hong Kong, it has also had an impact on urban planning. Urban planning has to deal with the decline of old urban districts, increased demand for industrial/office building, and changes in the IocaUonal demands of industries. It also has to provide the basic infrastructure to attract new types of industries and economic activities to face the challenge of the rapid decline in its traditional manufacturing base. Copyright © 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. 25 Economic restructuring and land use planning: A Gar-On Yeh of high unemployment and derelict land are not yet present. As a result, urban planning and land use policy responses to economic restructuring are different from those found in the cities in Europe and North America. This paper attempts to examine the nature, causes, and land use impacts of economic restructuring in Hong Kong and the effectiveness of land use planning responses to economic restructuring. Economic restructuring in Hong Kong 1 Labour-intensive, high value-added, and small industries are defined by the Hong Kong PlanningStandards and Guidelinesof the Planning Department for the purpose of forecasting territorial industrial floor space requirement. Industries that employed more than the average book value of plant, machinery and equipment per worker are classified as capital-intensive and those less than the average are classified as labour-intensive. Industries that exceed the average value-added per worker are classified as high value-added and those below the average are classified as low value-added. The average floor space is used to define small and largeindustries. The average floor space in 1988 when this classification was used was 1303 m 2, 26 Economic growth in Hong Kong is mainly a post-war phenomenon. In the early 1950s, the decline in the entrep6t trade and the influx of refugees from China which provided cheap labour, capital, and entrepreneurship, saw Hong Kong rapidly transformed into an industrial city between 1952 and 1956 (Szczepanik, 1958). External demand for goods also helped in developing the export-led industries (Koo, 1968, p. 199; Lin et al., 1980). Jhe textile and plastic industries expanded quickly at an early stage. The eiectronics and electrical industries started to grow in the 1960s. Since the early 1970s, manufacturing industries progressively diversified. There was a shift from labour-intensive and simple products to more technology-intensive and sophisticated products. Although manufacturing still remained important to its economy in the late 1970s, Hong Kong was further transformed into a major financial centre of the region (Chen, 1984, p. 1; Chen, 1990, p. 91). The most significant economic restructuring in Hong Kong occurred in the late 1980s after the adoption of economic reform and open door policy of China in 1978. This resulted in a marked decline in the manufacturing sector. Economic restructuring in Hong Kong is reflected in changes in the employment structure between 1961 and 1991 (Figure 1). The manufacturing sector increased steadily from 43 per cent in 1961 to 47 per cent in 1971 followed by a tremendous decline from 41.2 per cent in 1981 to 28.2 per cent in 1991. There was a steady increase in the service (wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels) sector from 14.4 per cent in 1961 to 22.5 per cent in 1991 and a slight increase in the professional service sector (community, social and personal services) from 18.3 per cent to 19.9 per cent. The marked increase in the office (financing, insurance, real estate and business services) sector mainly occurred after 1981. It increased from 4.8 per cent in 1981 to 10.6 per cent in 1991. The decline in the manufacturing sector has not only occurred in relation to its proportion of total employment, but has also been an absolute decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector has dropped from 0.9 million at its peak in 1981 to about 0.6 million in 1991. Its contribution to the GDP also dropped from 26.9 per cent to 15.9 per cent. It is anticipated that the manufacturing employment will further decrease in the future under the prevailing economic and production environment (the latest figure is about 9 per cent). Apart from the decline in employment and contribution to GDP of the manufacturing sector, the industrial structure is also changing. In 1986-1994, there was a marked decline in labour intensive, high value added, small industries. ~ Their share in the total industrial employment dropped from 10.3 per cent to 4.2 per cent (Table 1). Labour intensive, low value added, small industries are also declining rapidly, with their share in the total employment dropping from 70.2 per cent to 60.0 per cent. Although most industries are declining, some are actually growing. These are: Economic restructuring and land use planning: A Gar-On Yeh 50 40 E o 30 E Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels uJ "6 Community, Social and Personal Services 20 -- ..... ~ ..,,.. " " " " ....... ..-..........." "" ,~ .......- . ~ - - - . ~ ,=== ..,.-- ..................... Financing, Insurance, A 10 Figure 1. Economic restructuring in Hong Kong 1961-1991. Source: Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong 1991 Population Census, 1992. . .. Real Estate and grlculture ..... . . Business Services ..." ...-' . I i I i 1961 1971 1981 1991 Table 1. Industrial restructuring In Hong Kong. 1984-1996 Employment Industrial type Share (%) Difference from total growth (%) (%) (%) 1986 1994 33082 20969 3.8 4.8 36.6 1.0 12.7 B. Capital-intensive, high value-added, small establishments 10721 8201 1.2 1.9 -23.5 0.6 25.8 C. Capital intensive, low value-added, large establishments 8187 3442 0.9 0.8 -58.0 0.2 8.6 D. Capital-intensive, low value-added, small establishments 94439 100489 10.9 23.0 6.4 12.0 55.8 E. Labour-intensive, high value-added, large establishments 8537 8705 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 51.3 F. Labour-intensive, high value-added, small establishments 88723 18517 10.3 4.2 79.1 6.0 29.8 G. Labour-intensive, low value-added, large establishments 7672 8209 0.9 1.9 7.0 1.0 56.4 H. Labour-intensive, low value-added, small establishments 606545 262600 70.2 60.0 -56.7 10.2 7.4 O. Others t 994 Share change A. Capital-intensive, high value-added, large establishments Total 1986 Growth rate 6035 6419 0.7 1.5 6.4 0.8 55.7 863941 437551 100.0 100.0 -49.4 0.0 0.0 Source: Compiled from Census and Statistics Department, Employmentand Vacancies Statistics 1988, 1995, Hong Kong Government, Hong Kong. 27 Economic restructuring and land use planning: A Gar-On Yeh (i) capital-intensive, low value-added, small industries; (ii) labour intensive, high value-added, large industries, and (iii) labour intensive, low value-added, large industries. Industries in Hong Kong are becoming more capital intensive and larger. The decline in the manufacturing sector and industrial restructuring reflects the impact of both internal and external factors. Internally, serious labour shortages in the 1980s boosted wages. Externally, protectionism in foreign markets has forced local industralists to upgrade the quality of their products and to diversify into new products. Neighbouring ASEAN countries have gained the advantage in the production of labour-intensive products. Thus, local manufacturing industries have to restructure in order to maintain their competitiveness in the world market. In the context of the New International Division of Labour (NIDL), industrialists, especially those with large scale production, attempt to maximize their benefits through disintegrating their production processes. They allocate production processes to countries or regions with comparative advantages with the aim of reducing overall production costs. The subcontracting and outward processing to China is a realization of the concept of the NIDL. China's economic reforms since the late 1970s and 1980s has had a far reaching effect on the economic restructuring of Hong Kong's economy. In 1978, China adopted the 'open door' policy and set up new development areas (NDA) like the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone to encourage foreign investments. As a result, many local industrialists began to set up branch plants or undertake subcontracting processes in China. A gradual 'regional division of labour' between Hong Kong and China's new development areas, especially the Pearl River Delta Region, began to take shape. This was quite common among the labour-intensive industries such as garment making, toys and electronics to disintegrate their production processes with the shifting of the labour-intensive production processes which required unskilled labour to China through outward processing arrangements. In order to ensure operational efficiency and control by the management in Hong Kong, local industrialists preferred to subcontract such production processes within the Guangdong Province. Although economic reform and economic development in China, especially the Pearl River Delta, have contributed to the decline in Hong Kong's industries, it has led to the growth of the service and office sectors. Hong Kong industries that are outward processing in the Pearl River Delta are still using Hong Kong as a base for research, marketing and distribution. Hong Kong is also providing a hub function to China. It is resuming the function of an entrep6t for the rapidly growing areas in the Pearl River Delta. Re-exports to and from China have increased sharply since 1990. Apart from providing transhipment services by the world's second largest and highly efficient container port in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong also has an efficient banking system to handle letters of credit for China. Many international firms are also using Hong Kong as a stepping stone for doing business with China, making use of local expertise and professional services. China, especially areas in the Pearl River Delta, is increasingly important to the economic development of Hong Kong (Ho, 1992). There is a close partnership between Hong Kong and Guangdong province (Kwok and So, 1995). Hong Kong is the major source of foreign investment in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Many provincial and municipal entities are setting up their own companies in Hong Kong, investing in all major economic sectors (Ho, 1992). Despite the decrease in the manufacturing sector, Hong Kong's 28 Economic restructuring and land use planning." A Gar-On Yeh economy is still growing, although at a slower rate, because of the counter growth in the service and office sectors of the economy related to China trade. High unemployment rates associated with economic restructuring in some of the cities in Europe and North America has not yet occurred in Hong Kong. The unemployment rate remained below 3 per cent in the 1980s and early 1990s, although b.y 1995 it had reached 3.2 per cent. But, the overall low unemployment rate is deceptive. As other places that have undergone economic restructuring, the unemployment rate in the manufacturing labour is the highest. There are no official figures for unemployment among the manufacturing labour force because these are difficult to collect, but some labour unions claim that it could be as high as 9 per cent. Old and middle aged unskilled labours have been hit most. The government is offering them retraining by the setting up of the Employee Retraining Board in 1992. But how effective these programmes are has yet to be seen. Land use impacts of economic restructuring As noted, one of the main triggers of economic restructuring of Hong Kong has been economic reform and development in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta. Because of this, it is not surprising to find that there has been a marked increase in both cross border passenger and freight traffic between Hong Kong and China (Yeh, 1995, p. 261). This has led to a great increase in traffic volumes, especially freight traffic, on the highways in the New Territories. Vehicles crossing the border have increased from 0.7 million in 1983 to 8 million in 1994. The unanticipated 10 times increase in cross border vehicular traffic has caused many traffic problems in Hong Kong. The Tuen Mun Highway and the Tolo Highway that were designed in the later 1970s were not for the purpose of handling such a large volume of cross-border traffic. As a result, traffic congestion often occurs on these two highways that link the new towns in the New Territories with the core urban areas. The increase in re-exports to and from China as a result of outward processing rapid economic growth in the Pearl River Delta has increased the need for container storage in Hong Kong. Because of this, there is a shortage of land for open storage. This activity has spilled over to the rural areas in the New Territories during the 1980s in a haphazard and disorderly manner, creating incompatible land uses, as well as environmental and traffic problems. The proliferation of open storage in the rural areas of the New Territories was mainly due to the availability of cheap rural land and a loop hole in the Town Planning Ordinance. For historical reasons, the Town Planning Ordinance only covered the existing and potential urban areas which basically included the main urban areas and the new towns in the New Territories. Other areas were not covered by the Ordinance and were not therefore subject to planning control. Furthermore, land leasing conditions could not be used to control such development in the New Territories because of the Melhado law case in 1983 which allowed agricultural land to be used for open storage and car parks (Yeh, 1994, p. 3). To stop the environment from further rapid deterioration, the government finally passed the Town Planning (Amendment) Bill 1990 in January 1991. It extended the jurisdiction of the Ordinance to cover the whole of Hong Kong with new types of zoning such as country parks, green belts, village type development and open storage uses (Hong Kong Government, 1990). Interim planning control through the use of development permission 29 Economic restructuring and land use planning." A Gar-On Yeh area plans has been used to guide and control developments in the New Territories while the Outline Zoning Plans, which are statutory plans for development control, are under preparation. The Town Planning Board may designate areas which require immediate planning control as Development Permission Areas (DPAs), which are effective for three years. All development in DPAs requires planning permission from the Town Planning Board. To give the Town Planning Ordinance enforcement power to control unauthorized development in DPAs enforcement notices, reinstatement notices and stop notices, similar to those used in Britain, were introduced. An Appeal Board was also set up to deal with appeals related to objections and refusals of planning permission in the Development Permission Areas. In addition to the provision of infrastructure, the Hong Kong government has been actively involved in industrial land use planning to promote economic development, particularly in the past when the economy was industry-oriented. Industrial land use planning has involved the zoning of land for industrial development and the estimation of the amount of land needed for industrial development (Yeh and Tang, 1995). To ensure that a sufficient amount of industrial land could be made available for industrial development, the Government set up a Special Committee on Land Production (SCLP) in 1977 to monitor the formation and disposal of land to the private sector (Yeh, 1992, p. 87). The committee was renamed as the Special Committee on Land Supply (SCLS) in 1981 to reflect its changing role of not only advising on land production but also the optimum use of land (Hong Kong Government, 1981). It was disbanded in 1984 when the objectives of its establishment were considered to be largely fulfilled. The monitoring of land supply together with other land uses was taken over by the Land and Building Advisory Committee. The Planning Department continues to produce an annual ten-year rolling assessment of future land requirement and land supply for the Land and Building Advisory Committee to make sure that an adequate amount of land is provided to meet the demand. With the decline in the manufacturing sector and the increase in the service and office sectors, there is now an oversupply of industrial land. In 1993, there was a surplus of 62.4 ha of industrial land and a ten year surplus of 206 ha (Planning Department, 1993). The impacts of restructuring on different districts in Hong Kong vary. Shift-share analysis (Danson et al., 1980, p. 193; Klosterman and Richard, 1990) which compares the growth rate of the whole of Hong Kong with those of district board areas has been used to analyse the spatial impacts of restructuring in the two main economic sectors of manufacturing and offices which are locational specific between 1986 and 1994. For the whole territory of Hong Kong, there has been a negative growth of 50 per cent in manufacturing but a growth of 88 per cent in the office industry. Overall, there has been a decentralization of manufacturing and office employment from the main urban area to the outside areas (Table 2). As indicated by the change in the share of employment in the main urban area in 1986-1994, manufacturing is decentralized faster than office industry. Despite slight decentralization, the office industry is still highly concentrated in the main urban area with 90 per cent of the office employment located there. Although all districts are experiencing negative growth rates in manufacturing, the major decline is in the main urban area, especially the older industrial districts such as Sham Shui Po and Wong Tai Sin. Districts that have declined less are mainly located in the New Territories, such as Yuen Long, Tai Po and Sha Tin (Table 2, Figure 2). All districts 30 Economic restructuring and land use planning." A Gar-On Yeh Table 2. Shift share analysis of changes in spatial distribution of manufacturing and office sectors In Hong Kong, 1986-1994. Financing, Insurance, real estate and business services Manufacturing Growth rate Shift share District board (%) (%) 1986 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. - 56 -41 -48 49 53 61 -46 62 -53 48 41 19 32 - 7 2 18 -60 6 9 2 1 -3 -12 3 -12 3 2 9 31 18 43 47 32 10 2 1 6 3 6 12 7 10 19 24 4 2 1 2 0 2 0 50 0 100 - 54 48 - 25 5 2 25 65 24 11 Central and Western Wanchai Eastern Southern Yau Tsim Mon 0 Sham Shui Po Kowloon City Wong Tai Sin Kwun Tong Tsuen Wan/Kwai Tsing Tuen Mun Yuen Long North Tai Po Sai Kung Sha Tin Islands All areas Main urban area (1-9) Tsuen Wan/Kwai Tsing Non-urban area (11 - 17) Share change 86-94 Growth rate Shift share 1994 (%) (%) (%) 2 1 7 3 5 9 7 7 18 25 4 3 1 4 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 1 1 1 1 O 2 O 1 0 63 80 298 109 65 58 169 22 169 125 370 167 228 327 629 425 248 100 0 59 25 16 - 6 1 5 Share (%) Share (%) Share change 86-94 1986 1994 (%) - 25 -8 209 21 23 -30 81 110 81 37 282 79 140 239 541 337 160 45 19 4 1 15 4 2 2 2 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 39 18 8 1 13 3 3 1 3 4 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 - 6 - 1 4 0 -2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 O 88 0 100 100 0 80 125 316 - 8 37 228 94 4 3 90 4 6 4 0 3 Source: Compiled from Census and Statistics Department, Employment and Vacancies Statistics 1988, 1995. Hong Kong Government, Hong Kong. are experiencing the growth in office employment but districts in Tsuen Wan and Kwai Tsing and locations outside the main urban area such as Tuen Mun, North and Tai Po are growing much faster (Table 2, Figure 3). The office industry is still, however, highly concentrated in the main urban area. This area's share of total office employment has dropped from 94 per cent to 90 per cent. Within the main urban area, Eastern, Southern, Kowloon City, and Kwun Tong have higher growth rates than the territorial growth rate. Economic restructuring and land use planning in Hong Kong Urban planning in Hong Kong has evolved from ameliorative planning to deal with the sudden influx of population after 1949 and the economic boom of the 1950s to be more forward looking. These significant improvements in urban planning were first reflected in the development of new towns in the 1970s. A Territorial Development Strategy was formulated in the early 1980s to coordinate land use and transport development to provide a better living and working environment and to sustain economic development. But the economic restructuring that has occurred since the mid-1980s has created new challenges for urban planning in Hong Kong. New transport strategies have to be developed to deal with the increasing cross-border traffic. The Territorial Development Strategy has to be reviewed and new measures have to be developed to accommodate the changing needs of the economy. (A ) TerritorialDevelopment Strategy A Territorial Development Strategy (TDS) was adopted in 1984 for the comprehensive long-term development strategy of Hong Kong in the 1990s. It was not only concerned with meeting the requirements for land, services and facilities but also sustaining the growth of key economic activities to achieving a wide range of socio-economic-environmental 31 Economic restructuring and land use planning: A Gar-On Yeh Main Urban Area 1 Central and Western 2 Wanchai 3 Eastern 4 Southern 5 Yau Tsim Mong 6 Sham Shui Po 7 Kowloon City 8 Wong Tai Sin 9 Kwun Tong Manufacturing Growth Rate 1986-94 Above Average Growth Rate over 30% 15% to 30% i__] 0% to 15% 0% to-15% less than -15% Below Average Growth Rate Figure 2. Shift-share analysis of manufacturing growth rates 1986-1994. Source: Compiled from Census and Statistics Department, Employment and Vacancies Statistics 1988, 1995, Hong Kong Government, Hong Kong. Main Urban Area 1 Central and Western 2 Wanchai 3 Eastern 4 Southern 5 Yau Tsim Mong 6 Sham Shui Po 7 Kowloon City 8 Wong Tai Sin 9 Kwun Tong Office Growth Rate 1986-94 Above Average Growth Rate over 100% m I 50% to100% I 0% to 50% 0% to -50% [::::::::] less than -50% Below Average Growth Rate Figure 3. Shift-share analysis of office growth rates 1986-1994. Source: Compiled from Census and Statistics Department, Employment and Vacancies Statistics 1988, 1995, Hong Kong Government, Hong Kong. 32 Economic restructuring and land use planning." A Gar-On Yeh objectives (Hong Kong Government, 1985). The decision to formulate the Territorial Development Strategy was in part attributable to the recognition of the lack of coordination between urban development and transport provision, especially in the case of new towns where transport was still inadequate. The TDS took four years to prepare and was completed in 1984. It recommended further growth in the main urban areas when all the new towns were developed. Metroplan, the subregional plan for the metro region composed of the main urban area and the Tsuen Wan and Kwai Tsing, was formulated in 1989 and recommended urban redevelopment in the old districts and massive land reclamation to accommodate the need for offices and housing (Planning, Environment and Lands Branch, 1990). There were many uncertainties when Hong Kong was preparing its TDS in the early 1980s (Yeh, 1985, p. 252). It was prepared at the time when the political future of Hong Kong and economic relations with the Pearl River Delta were most uncertain. Britain at that time was negotiating with China on the political future of Hong Kong and China was experimenting with the setting up of special economic zones (SEZs) to promote economic development. It was unclear whether the SEZs would be successful and what their impact would be on Hong Kong. Economic relations between Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta did not really develop until 1984 after the TDS was prepared. Because of this, crossborder traffic and relations were not given much emphasis in the TDS. The TDS mainly dealt with the internal transport and land use interactions in Hong Kong. In the TDS study, the location of the new international airport was recognized as a significant factor affecting the future development pattern of Hong Kong. While a number of development options concerning future airport locations were considered, doubts were cast over the possible relocation of the existing airport in view of the uncertain political future of Hong Kong in 1984. As a result, two alternative long-term growth patterns based on the existing airport location at Kai Tak were produced. Both options saw a need for major improvements and extensions of the existing planned highways and rail systems. Each represented an end-state plan for the year 2001 and beyond then fundamental changes in basic assumptions might be necessary. In view of the uncertainty of Hong Kong's political and economic future, a common-component approach was used to identify in the two options common projects where detailed planning and associated works could be started soon, in order to sustain the momentum of urban development. Since the adoption of the Territorial Development Strategy in 1984, there has been a sharp increase in economic relations with China and, as a result, a major increase in cross-border traffic. The government decided to undertake a major review of the strategy in 1990 soon after it realized that Hong Kong's economic relations with China will grow further rather than diminish and that the territory's economic future relied on the integration of its economy with China, particularly the Pearl River Delta. A paper, Territorial Development Strategy Review Development Options was published in 1993 for public consultation (Planning Department, 1993a; 1993b). The review was needed because the location of the key infrastructure of the airport and port which was not finalized in the TDS of 1984 had been determined. In 1989, the Port and Airport Development Strategy (PADS) decided to relocate the airport from Kai Tak to Chek Lap Kok and to expand the port facilities on North Lantau and in the Western Harbour Area. The review was also needed because of the major increase 33 Economic restructuring and land use planning." A Gar-On Yeh in economic interactions and cross-border traffic between Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta after 1984. A long term planning framework for the provision of land and infrastructure, taking into consideration the increase in cross border traffic was needed (Planning Department, 1993a). The importance of the linkage with the Pearl River Delta has been fully acknowledged in the review of the TDS. It is one of the two major principles reflected in the formulation of the TDS. The other one is the direction of growth within the territory which is also affected by the linkage with the Pearl River Delta. The development scenarios are also closely related to the interactions and development of the Pearl River Delta. Scenario A assumes the PRD region as Hong Kong's primary economic hinterland, while Scenario B includes both the PRD and the inner provinces of China as the economic hinterland. Under Scenario A, two further sub-scenarios were developed--steady growth (AI) and high growth (AII). Both sub-scenarios assume growth in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta. The difference is the degree of reliance of the Pearl River Delta on Hong Kong. The steady growth scenario (AI) assumes that there would be considerable growth in the Pearl River Delta but the relationship between Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta would be more as equal partners. The high growth scenario (AII) assumes that Hong Kong will be a primary centre of development in the Pearl River Delta. It will be the key trading outlet, entrep6t and financial centre of the region. Scenario B assumes that Hong Kong's economic ties will go beyond the Pearl River Delta and reach the inner provinces of China, providing entrep6t services, and acting as a major trading outlet and source of foreign investment. This scenario is considered as the extra high growth scenario by adding 20 per cent to the high land use and transport demand in Scenario AII (high growth). From these scenarios, a range of land use and infrastructure requirements are established. Cross-border transport demands range from relatively low in the Steady Growth Scenario (AI) to extra high in the Extra High Growth Scenario (B). The increase in crossborder traffic will not only affect the border but also internal traffic as well. New internal transport networks and cross-border linkages are proposed based on the updated findings of transport studies, such as the Railway Development Study. Route Y which would link the proposed Lantau port facilities via the Tuen Mun Road southern bypass, Tuen Mun West to the Ma Wan area in Shenzhen is considered under the High Growth and Extra High Growth Scenarios. Route Y was first recommended under the updating of the Second Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS-2). Industrial and office land uses are important components of the review of the TDS. Comprehensive studies on industry and office needs have been carried out in formulating options (Planning Department, 1991; 1992; 1993). A land development strategy is needed to provide a wider range of industrial premises to accommodate the need for industrial restructuring and diversification. An office land development strategy is needed to enhance the role of Hong Kong as an international business and financial centre. It recognizes that since 1987, the office sector has become the most important economic sector and there are special land use needs for its development. Some offices may need to be located outside the central district, but many offices, especially financial institutions may need a central location. Increases in China trade may lead to an increase in the demand for locations near the border and port and airport facilities. The office development strategy recommends the additional and timely supply 34 Economic restructuring and land use planning: A Gar-On Yeh of office land at suitable locations so that rentals can be maintained at a competitive level. It further recommends the development of a high quality and vibrant office centre in the CBD; the development of strong secondary centres to complement the CBD expansion along key transport networks such as MTR stations; the development of selected off-centre office nodes at accessible locations to cater for the needs of specialized business activities that do not need to be located in the CBD; and the development of non-Metro office centres to cater for local and special needs outside the Metro region. (B) Industrial land use planning The recent acceleration of outward processing and subcontracting to China had led to new trends in industrial land use planning. At the strategic level, the Territorial Development Strategy (TDS) which is guiding the future land use development in Hong Kong has addressed certain issues related to changes in the industrial structure (Planning Department, 1993a). The growth areas for manufacturing industries are mainly located along the routes between the border and the container terminal and the new airport (Figure 3). The location of these new growth areas is supported by the results of the survey conducted by the Industry Department (Industry Department, 1991) on the future development of Hong Kong in 1991. The linkages mainly involved the transfer of semi-finished products between factories in Hong Kong and China. The zoning of industrial land near the border and along the major routes between the border and the airport or the container terminals can therefore facilitate linkages between the factories in Hong Kong and China. The decline of manufacturing in Hong Kong has resulted in an oversupply of industrial land because such land was programmed to be formed on the basis of past high estimates of future land requirements which were made when there was no major sign of industrial decline in the early 1980s. To cope with the outward processing and subcontracting phenomenon, the local planning authority has undertaken some remedial measures. In the annual assessment of industrial land requirements, the employment-based methodology has been replaced by a new econometric approach which can give a more realistic estimate of the quantitative demand of industrial land. The new assessment method has also been adopted in the formulation of the Territorial Development Strategy (TDS) for the long term development of the territory. The Hong Kong Planning Standards and Guidelines (HKPSG) lay down the detailed planning standards and guidelines to guide various types of land development. Chapter 5 of HKPSG sets out the standards and parameters of industrial land use development. The principles of industrial land reservation have also been laid down. Given the recent changes in the industrial structure, the planning authority has employed consultants to review the standards and parameters, with a view of revising both the principles of industrial land reservation and the planning parameters adopted for industrial building development. It is hoped that a wider range of industrial premises can be provided to cater for various types of industrial production as well as to improve the environment of new industrial areas. The feasibility of introducing science parks and business park developments to Hong Kong is also being explored. (C) New mixed industrial~office land uses The results of a survey conducted by the Industry Department in 1991 on the future development of industries in Hong Kong revealed that there 35 Economic restructuring and land use planning." A Gar-On Yeh were trends towards supporting activities complementing subcontracting processes to China and a movement towards automation and high-value added production (Industry Department, 1991). Hong Kong maintains well-established business connections with the foreign markets in the rest of the world and possesses high quality human resources. Therefore only .those labour-intensive production processes are shifted to China. Head office and other supporting activities related to subcontracting production processes, such as R&D, administration, design, and quality control are still taking place in Hong Kong. These generate demand for ancillary office space. Such demand, due to its distinctive nature, is quite different from that for other economic and financial activities. Such trends are expected to continue in the future. As a result, there is a need for introducing 'flexibility' in the use of floor space for industrial or other ancillary office activities. In the past, because of the difference in environmental and safety requirements, industrial and office land uses were separated from each other. With the changing industrial structure in Hong Kong, the need for industrial related office space has led to the development of a new mixed industrial/office land use. There are two forms of such mixed land uses--industrial/office buildings and industrial/office zones. Industrial~office buildings. The concept of industrial/office (I/O) buildings was introduced into the planning system of Hong Kong in 1989. It was implemented through planning applications for I/O building developments under Section 16 of the Town Planning Ordinance on sites zoned for industrial use. The I/O buildings are dual-purpose buildings in which every unit of the building can be used flexibly for either industrial or office purposes. The original guidelines for planning applications in composite I/O buildings in 'industrial' zones specified that offices to be accommodated in an I/O building should be ancillary to industrial activities in the same industrial area. However, problems have been encountered in defining the term 'the same industrial area'. The situation has been compounded because production lines of industrial firms have been moving out to other locations where labour and land costs are cheaper, thus leaving non-manufacturing and headquarters functions in Hong Kong. The requirement that the office should be ancillary to an industrial operation in the same industrial area may not be flexible enough to meet changing market needs. As a result, the Town Planning Board agreed in 1994 to revise the guidelines for 'Application for Composite Industrial-Office Buildings in Industrial Zone' to the effect that the requirement for an office to be ancillary to an industrial operation 'in the same industrial area' be deleted (Town Planning Board, 1995). Such a modification matched well with the escalating demand for office space and resulted in a tremendous increase in the number of planning applications for I/O developments. As revealed from past statistics on I/O development applications, the number has surged drastically from 33 cases in 1993 to 133 cases in 1994, an annual growth rate of 400 per cent. As the nature of the office activities in I/O buildings is quite different from other economic and financial activities, I/O office users have different sets of locational preferences. Most of the I/O planning applications have been concentrated in the main urban area comprising Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Kowloon, and Tsuen Wan. Most were from the old industrial districts in the main urban area which are close to the city centre (Kowloon and New Kowloon) and underground railway (MTR) stations 36 Economic restructuring and land use planning: A Gar-On Yeh (Cheung Sha Wan, Kwun Tong and Tuen Wan). Industrial districts on Hong Kong Island which are located far away from the city centre have the least number of applications. This shows that accessibility may be one of the major location criteria for this type of development. Besides accessibility, proximity to supporting facilities and efficient linkages related to production processes and the interflow of information between production partners are two major factors affecting locational preferences. Industrial~office (I/0) zone. Changes in the industrial structure of Hong Kong have led to increased demand for industrial/office buildings to accommodate headquarters and uses related to outward processing activities. To facilitate I/O developments, in addition to I/O planning applications, a new I/O zone concept may be a feasible solution. The primary objective of the I/O zone will be to allow mixed industrial and office uses on such sites without planning permissions or payment of a high land premium. An 'OU(I/O)' zone was introduced in the draft South West Kowloon Outline Zoning Plan (OZP) with plan number S/K2I)/I in 1994. The primary objective of this land use zone is to serve as a buffer area for some environmental sensitive uses such as housing. Ancillary office and other industry-related uses are permitted in this zone. All industrial uses except heavy, obnoxious industries and offensive trades are allowed and can also operate in the zone. This experimental zone lays the foundation for the subsequent introduction of the new I/O zone concept which will pass through the review and revision stages. Conclusion Economic relationships with China would already be important to Hong Kong's economy, even without the return of Hong Kong to China. Such a relationship is mainly related to the rapid economic growth in the Pearl River Delta region after economic reform and the introduction of the open door policy of China in 1978. Political integration with China when Hong Kong becomes a Special Administrative Region after 1 July 1997, and the completion of major transport infrastructure will further strengthen the connection between China and Hong Kong, enhancing the role of the territory as a gateway to Southern China. Profound changes have taken place in the economy of Hong Kong over the last decade, resulting from economic reform in China which has opened up a great source of cheap labour and land. The sector that has been hit the hardest has been the manufacturing sector. The industrial structure of Hong Kong has changed from labour intensive to capitalintensive and high value-added modes of production with great increases in subcontracting to the neighbouring Pearl River Delta region in China. The changing industrial structure in Hong Kong has had a profound influence on industrial land use planning in the territory. Planning in Hong Kong has been quite responsive in dealing with changing land use requirements as a result of economic restructuring and the new economic relationship with China. The changing demand for industrial land and economic restructuring have led to the review of the territorial development strategy of Hong Kong. The development of industrial/office buildings and zones to meet the office demand generated from outward processing to China and the decreasing demand for industrial space in the old industrial districts is a response to the changing industrial structure. As well as meeting the need 37 Economic restructuring and land use planning."A Gar-On Yeh for mixed industrial/office developments in the changing industrial structure, it can also be an effective planning tool and 'catalyst' for accelerating redevelopment of obsolete buildings in old industrial areas which otherwise lack redevelopment incentives. Economic restructuring in Hong Kong is affected by the global economy and the regional division of labour. Fortunately, Hong Kong does not yet have to deal with the high unemployment and inner city problems experienced by many cities in Europe and North America. The economy is still growing but at a slower rate. Urban planning can help to restructure the urban space to meet the changing needs of different land uses as a result of economic restructuring. As shown by experience in other cities, there is a need for more government intervention to help adjust to the changing land use, infrastructure and labour skills needed for economic restructuring (Ho, 1994, p. 33). Hong Kong needs to have an industrial policy for manpower planning and promotion of high tech industries (Yeh and Ng, 1994, p. 449). It also needs government support to attract foreign investment and improve the skills of labour to meet the needs of high value added service and office industries. As a start, the Trade and Industry Branch has completed a study on the promotion of Hong Kong services in 1995, making recommendations on how to help Hong Kong to restructure its economy towards the service and office industries in which the economic future of Hong Kong will depend on in the 21st century. 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