Q600 ‐ Fall 2012 ‐ 1 of 5 MBA Q600: Applied Business Statistics Fall 2012 Course Outline September 5, 2012 COURSE OBJECTIVE Statistics involves the study of collection, organization, presentation, analysis and interpretation of data. The goal is that data is used to inform business decision making so that the best possible actions can be taken. In this introductory course we study the following important statistical analysis methods: descriptive statistics, probability, discrete and continuous random variables, sampling distributions, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, experimental design and analysis of variance, regression analysis, nonparametric statistics, and decision theory. TEACHING STAFF AND COURSE INFORMATION Instructor Dr. John Miltenburg miltenb@mcmaster.ca Office: RJC-218 Office Hours*: Before and after class, and Friday 9:30-11:30 Tel: (905) 525-9140 x20516 Teaching Assistants Hangfei Guo Jie Han guoh24@mcmaster.ca hanj36@mcmaster.ca Office: tba Office Hours: tba Tel: tba * Whenever possible questions about course content should be posted on the Avenue Discussion Board. Class Times and Rooms: Q600-1 day -- Monday 8:30 am to 11:30 am, room RJC-313 Q600-2 day -- Tuesday 2:30 pm to 5:30 pm, room RJC-313 Q600-1 night -- Tuesday 7:00 pm to 10:00 pm, room RJC-313 Q600-3 day -- Friday 11:30 pm to 2:30 pm, room RJC-313 Please attend lectures in the section in which you are registered. All sections cover the same material each week. Course Website: http://avenue.mcmaster.ca COURSE ELEMENTS Credit Value: Web: Participation: 3 Yes Yes Leadership: Ethics: Innovation: No No Yes IT skills: Numeracy: Team skills: Yes Yes No Global view: Written skills: Verbal skills: Yes Yes No COURSE DESCRIPTION This course introduces the statistical analysis methods that are commonly used for managerial decision making. Extensive use is made of statistical software package MegaStat (which is an Excel add-in) and the Excel Data Analysis tool. The course begins with a review of descriptive statistics, probability, random variables, and discrete and continuous probability distributions. Then the course studies sampling, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, correlation analysis, analysis of variance, simple and multiple regression, non-parametric statistics, and decision theory. LEARNING OUTCOMES Upon completion of this course, students will be able to complete the following key tasks: Use descriptive statistics to summarize a set of data, Recognize the characteristics under which a managerial situation could be described by a various discrete probability distributions (binomial, Poisson, hypergeometric) and continuous distributions (uniform, normal exponential), www.degroote.mcmaster.ca Q600 – Fall 2012 – page 2 of 5 Use these distributions to answer managerial probability questions, Use sample results to make estimates of population parameters, Use sample results to test theories (hypotheses) about population parameters, Use sample results from two (or more) sets of data to determine if there are differences between two (or more) population parameters, Use covariance, analysis of variance, and regression to estimate the relationship between two (or more) sets of data, Use the Excel’s Data Analysis tool and MegaStat to perform data analysis, confidence intervals, hypothesis tests, and conduct regression analysis, Interpret Excel Data Analysis output and MegaStat output. REQUIRED COURSE MATERIALS Textbook: Business Statistics in Practice, 2nd Canadian Edition (2011), by Bruce Bowerman, Richard O’Connell, Julie Aitken Schermer, and James Adcock. Do not purchase the ‘Connect On-Line Access Card’. We will not use this feature in this course. The textbook web site is http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/0070000237/student_view0/index.html. Software: We will use the Excel Data Analysis tool and the Excel add-in MegaStat 10.2. MegaStat is available at: http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/0070000237/student_view0/megastat_tutorials.html. Refer to the contents of the MegaStat.zip file for help in installing MegaStat v10.2. PC’s: This version of MegaStat will work with all versions of Excel on a PC. Mac’s: This version of MegaStat will only work with Excel 2011 on a Mac running OS X. It will not work with Excel 2008 (or earlier) since these versions of Excel on a Mac do not support add-ins. If you must use one of these versions of Excel then you can access MegaStat through the McMaster ‘Citrix’ environment. You must register to be able to access this environment. More details will be given in class. Lecture Notes: Each student must download the Lecture Notes each week from the course website. It is not necessary to print out the Lecture Notes. During class students are expected to also write notes on paper. EVALUATION Component Weekly attendance Mark 8 Weekly quiz 8 Exam #1 Exam #2 Final exam 28 28 28 Total 100 1 mark/week for any 8 of 10 weeks in weeks 2,3,4,6,7,8, 10,11,12,13. Students must not arrive late or leave before the break (at the mid-point of the 3-hour class). Short quiz written at the beginning of class. 1 mark/week for any 8 of 10 weeks in weeks 2,3,4,6,7,8, 10,11,12,13. In-class, problems-2.5 hours, computer-0.5 hours In-class, problems-2.5 hours, computer-0.5 hours Day and time will be scheduled by the MBA Office: Problems-2.5 hours, computer-0.5 hours At the end of the course students overall percentage grade will be converted to a letter grade in accordance with the following conversion scheme. If appropriate, the letter grade will be adjusted upwards or downwards to give a class median of A-. LETTER GRADE A+ A A- PERCENT 90 – 100 85 – 89 80 – 84 LETTER GRADE B+ B BF PERCENT 75 – 79 70 – 74 60 - 69 00 – 59 www.degroote.mcmaster.ca Q600 – Fall 2012 – page 3 of 5 Attendance, Readings, Exams Students must attend class. Attendance will be taken: students must not arrive late or leave before the break (at the mid-point of the 3-hour class. Students must bring their textbook to class. Students must also bring a computer and the Lecture Notes to class. Students may share a computer and the Lecture Notes. Students are expected to read the assigned material in the textbook before coming to class. At the beginning of each class there will be a 10 minute written quiz on the assigned reading. Students may use their textbook during the quiz but not the Lecture Notes or their computer. Students cannot share a textbook during the quiz. It is not possible to ‘make up’ marks that are lost due to missing a class or a quiz. Students must download the Lecture Notes each week from the course website. It is not necessary to print out the Lecture Notes. The instructor will lecture from the Lecture Notes. During class students are expected to write notes on paper, and to use their computers to download problem data from Avenue and use the MegaStat and Data Analysis software to do statistical calculations. There are no weekly hand-in assignments. Instead students must complete assigned Practice Problems on their own. This should be done after the weekly lecture, but before the in-class exam. Detailed solutions and data sets for all Practice Problems are available on Avenue. The two in-class exams and the final exam are 3 hours long. Exams will not be comprehensive; rather each will cover material since the previous exam. All exams will have a 2½ hour ‘problems test’, and a ½ hour ‘computer test’ in which students will solve three problems using Megastat and Excel Data Analysis. Students must bring their own (laptop) computer for this ‘computer test’. Students can also use a notebook computer from the Concierge Desk. (Make sure that you are very familiar with your computer because no extra time will be given for the ‘computer test’.) Students may use their textbook during the exams and a McMaster standard calculator (Casio FX-991); students may not use the Lecture Notes or their personal notes during the exams. Students cannot share a textbook or a calculator during an exam. Notes written in the textbook must not be excessive. If notes are excessive the student will not be allowed to use the textbook during the exam. ‘Post-it’ tabs may be inserted into the textbook; but no other papers may be inserted into the textbook. Students must also bring pencils and an ink pen to the exams. Students who are unable to write an in-class exam for approved business or personal reasons may be permitted to write a make-up exam. These students must see the instructor, explain their situation, show documentation in support of their situation, and receive the instructor’s permission. This must be done in person; it cannot be done by e-mail. Students who miss an in-class exam and the make-up exam will be required to write a longer final exam that includes the missed material. Problems with grades (attendance, quiz, or exam) must be resolved with the instructor within 2 weeks of the grades being posted on Avenue. Communication and Feedback Students who are uncomfortable in directly approaching an instructor regarding a course concern may send a confidential and anonymous email to the respective Area Chair or Director: http://www.degroote.mcmaster.ca/curr/emailchairs.aspx Students who wish to correspond with instructors or TAs directly via email must send messages that originate from their official McMaster University email account. This protects the confidentiality and sensitivity of information as well as confirms the identity of the student. Academic Dishonesty It is the student’s responsibility to understand what constitutes academic dishonesty. Please refer to the University Senate Academic Integrity Policy at: http://www.mcmaster.ca/policy/Students-AcademicStudies/AcademicIntegrity.pdf This policy describes the responsibilities, procedures, and guidelines for students and faculty should a case of academic dishonesty arise. Academic dishonesty is defined as to knowingly act or fail to act in a way that results or could result in unearned academic credit or advantage. Please refer to the policy for a list of examples. The policy also provides faculty with procedures to follow in cases of academic dishonesty as well as general guidelines for penalties. For further information related to the policy, please refer to the Office of Academic Integrity at: http://www.mcmaster.ca/academicintegrity Copyright McMaster University has signed a license with the Canadian Copyright Licensing Agency (Access Copyright) which allows professors, students, and staff to make copies allowed under fair dealing. Fair dealing with a work does not require the permission of the copyright owner or the payment of royalties as long as the purpose for the material is private study, and that www.degroote.mcmaster.ca Q600 – Fall 2012 – page 4 of 5 the total amount copied equals NO MORE THAN 10 percent of a work or an entire chapter which is less than 20 percent of a work. In other words, it is illegal to: i) copy an entire book, or ii) repeatedly copy smaller sections of a publication that cumulatively cover over 10 percent of the total work’s content. Please refer to the following copyright guide for further information: http://library.mcmaster.ca/about/copying.pdf MISSED EXAMINATION/ TESTS/ CLASS PARTICIPATION When students miss a regularly scheduled midterm, test or class participation for legitimate reasons as adjudicated by the MBA Academic Services Office, the weight for that midterm/test/participation will be distributed across other evaluative components of the course at the discretion of the instructor. Documentation explaining such an absence must be provided to the MBA Academic Services Office within five (5) working days upon returning to school. To document absences for health related reasons, please provide the Petition for Relief for MBA Missed Term Work and the McMaster University Student Health Certificate, which can be found on the DeGroote website at: http://www.degroote.mcmaster.ca/MBA/registration.html University policy states that a student may submit a maximum of three (3) medical certificates per year after which the student must meet with the Director of the program. To document absences for reasons other than health related, please provide documentation supporting the reason for the absence and the Petition for Relief for MBA Missed Term Work: http://www.degroote.mcmaster.ca/MBA/documents/relief.pdf Students unable to write a midterm at the posted exam time due to the following reasons: religious; work-related (for parttime students only); representing university at an academic or varsity athletic event; conflicts between two overlapping scheduled midterm exams; or other extenuating circumstances, have the option of applying for special exam arrangements. Such requests must be made to the MBA Academic Services Office at least ten (10) working days before the scheduled exam along with acceptable documentation. Instructors cannot themselves allow students to unofficially write make-up exams/tests. Adjudication of the request must be handled by the MBA Academic Services Office. All applications for deferred and special final examination arrangements must be made to the MBA Academic Services Office. Failure to meet the stated deadlines may result in the denial of these arrangements. Deferred examination privileges, if granted, must be satisfied during the examination period at the end of the term immediately following. There will be one common sitting for all deferred exams. Please refer to the MBA Calendar for further details. If any exam is missed without a valid reason, students will receive a grade of Zero (0) for that component. STUDENT ACCESSIBILITY SERVICES Student Accessibility Services (SAS) offers various support services for students with disabilities. Students are required to inform SAS of accommodation needs for examinations on or before the last date for withdrawal from a course without failure (please refer to official university sessional dates). Students must forward a copy of such SAS accommodation to the instructor immediately upon receipt. If a student with a disability chooses NOT to take advantage of an SAS accommodation and chooses to sit for a regular exam, a petition for relief may not be filed after the examination is complete. The SAS website is: http://sas.mcmaster.ca Potential Modifications to the Course The instructor and university reserve the right to modify elements of the course during the term. The university may change the dates and deadlines for any or all courses in extreme circumstances. If either type of modification becomes necessary, reasonable notice and communication with the students will be given with explanation and the opportunity to comment on changes. It is the responsibility of the student to check their McMaster email and course websites weekly during the term and to note any changes. www.degroote.mcmaster.ca Q600 – Fall 2012 – page 5 of 5 Course Schedule Week, Dates 1. Sep. 10-14 2. Sep. 17-21 3. Sep. 24-28 4. Oct. 1-5 Topics (Lecture Notes are on Avenue.) Ch. 1: Introduction Ch. 3: Probability Ch. 2: Descriptive Statistics, Statistical software Ch. 3: Probability Ch. 4: Discrete Random Variables Ch. 5: Continuous Random Variables Ch. 6: Sampling Distributions Practice Problems (Solutions are on Avenue.) Ch 1 – 7, 15, 21, 22 Ch 2 – 5, 7, 22, 28, 29, 31, 35, 41,49,54,62, 65 Ch 3 – 9, 17, 20, 26, 34, 37, 42, 43, 44 Ch 4 – 3, 12, 15, 19, 22, 25, 33, 35, 37, 45, 51 Ch 5 – 6, 11, 23, 25, 26, 27, 31, 55, 65, 69 Ch 6 – 7, 9, 21, 25, 29 5. Oct. 8-12 In-class Midterm Exam #1 covering Ch. 1-6: ‘problems’--2½ hours; ‘computer test’--½ hours Mon. Oct. 8 is Thanksgiving Holiday; class is rescheduled to Fri. Oct. 12, 6:15-9:15, RJC-313. 6. Oct. 15-19 7. Oct. 22-26 Ch. 7: Confidence Intervals Ch. 8: Hypothesis Testing Ch. 8: Hypothesis Testing Ch. 9: Statistical Inferences – two samples Ch. 10: Experimental Design and ANOVA Ch 7 – 5, 7, 13, 17, 19, 25, 35, 37, 43, 45, 55, 59, 63, 67, 71, 72, 75, 81, 83, 93 Ch 8 – 13, 23, 25, 27, 29, 33, 37, 39, 41, 43, 51, 53, 55, 65, 67, 69 Ch 9 – 3, 5, 11, 14, 15, 17, 31, 35, 43, 45 Ch 10 – 3, 4, 11, 15, 17, 22, 25 8. Oct. 29Nov. 2 9. Nov. 5-9 In-class Midterm Exam #2 covering Ch. 7-10: ‘problems’--2½ hours; ‘computer test’--½ hours 10. Nov. 12-16 Ch. 11: Correlation & Simple Regression 11. Nov. 19-23 Ch. 12: Multiple Regression Ch 12 – 7, 15, 19, 23, 28, 12. Nov. 26-30 Ch. 13: Nonparametric Statistics Ch 13 – 3, 5, 11, 17, 25, 31 13. Dec. 3-7 Ch. 14: Chi-Square Tests Ch 11 – 3, 7, 17, 29, 35, 39, 47, 54, 60, 69, 73 Ch 14 – 2, 8, 13, 15, 23 14. Dec. ? Final exam (scheduled by MBA office) covering Ch. 11-14: ‘problems’--2½ hours; ‘computer test’--½ hours Notes: 1. Data Sets: Data sets used in the Lectures are posted on Avenue with the Lecture Notes. Data sets used in the Practice Problems are posted on Avenue with the Practice Problems Solutions. Data sets for all problems in the textbook are available at the textbook web site: http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/0070000237/student_view0/index.html. 2. If the university closes (due, for example, to bad weather) causing a class to be cancelled, the missed class will be made up by scheduling a make-up class on the following Friday evening (7 - 10 pm). An announcement will be made on Avenue. www.degroote.mcmaster.ca