EMPORIA STATE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Department of Business Administration and Education Course Syllabus - Fall 2012 COURSE NUMBER AND TITLE: BU 255 A- Business Statistics CLASS MEETING TIME: MWF 10:00 a.m. -10:50 p.m. (Room CH 515) PREREQUISITES: MA110, 161 OR 165 INSTRUCTOR: Dr. Mohammad Chowdhury E-mail: mchowdhu@emporia.edu OFFICE: 309 Cremer Hall (CH 309) OFFICE HOURS: MTRF 9 a.m.-10:00 a.m.; TR 10 a.m. -11:00 a.m. and by appointment TELEPHONE NUMBER: (620)-341-5659 and Fax: (620)-341-6345 REQUIRED TEXT: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics by Lind, Marchal, and Wathen; McGraw-Hill, 15th Edition, 2012 (ISBN: 978-0-07-340180-5) SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIALS: Hand Calculator and Flash Drive COURSE DESCRIPTION: The Business Statistics course is designed to introduce the student to both descriptive and inferential statistics as they apply to business. This course includes summarization of raw data and graphic representation of data, measures of central tendency, dispersion and skewness, probability concepts, some discrete and continuous probability distributions, simple random sampling method and sampling distributions, tests of hypotheses for large and small samples, simple linear regression and correlation analysis, Chi-Square applications and analysis of ranked data in nonparametric methods. This course includes the use of statistical software Microsoft Excel/SPSS. COURSE OBJECTIVES: 1. Learn to convert data into useful information using graphs, charts, tables, and use a variety of statistical measures (mean, median, mode, standard deviation etc.) by themselves and in conjunction with graphical techniques. 2. Learn to quantify uncertainty and basic rules that govern probability operations. Get familiar With discrete and continuous probability distributions and learn how to use them in decision making. Syllabus, BU255A-Business Statistics, Fall 2012, MIC, P 1 3. Learn about population, sample, the distribution of sampling errors, the Central Limit Theorem and the steps needed to develop and interpret statistical estimations of various population values. 4. Learn how to determine whether the sample information tends to support or refute the Statement about a population parameter, and also recognize the importance of making an error in hypothesis testing. 5. Learn to determine whether sample data come from a population having specific characteristics (goodness-of-fit tests). 6. Learn the techniques for modeling the linear relationship between the two variables and get acquainted with the basic terminology of forecasting and time-series analysis. 7. Learn to test when the data analyzed are nominal or ordinal and the underlying populations Being analyzed are non-normal. 8. a. Gaining factual knowledge (terminology, classifications, methods, trends) b. Learning fundamental principles, generalizations, or theories c. Learning to apply course material (to improve thinking, problem solving, and decisions) d. Learning to analyze and critically evaluate ideas. COURSE EVALUATION / PROCESS LEARNING ACTIVITIES: The outcome of this course will be measured by four examinations, computer assignments, critical thinking assignment, participation including attendance, and home-work. The break down of percentages for the course is shown in the EXAMINATION SCHEDULE AND WEIGHTS below. The overall accumulation of percentages required to obtain a certain letter grade is shown in the GRADING AND OTHER POLICIES. EXAMINATION SCHEDULE AND WEIGHTS: EXAM I Sep. 12, 2012 (W) 20% EXAM II Oct. 8, 2012 (M) 20% EXAM III Nov. 5, 2012 (M) 20% FINAL EXAM Dec. 12, 2012 (W) 20% HOMEWORK 12% THREE COMPUTER assignments using Excel/SPSS 6% PARTICIPATION* (includes attendance (1%)) 2% All key formulas and statistical tables are provided for the tests * Participation means regular attendance and be on time, frequent involvement and positive contributions in class discussions, and presentations. If a student has more than one unexcused absence, the student will lose ALL participation points (2%) for the course. Syllabus, BU 255A-Business Statistics, Fall 2012, MIC, P 2 GRADING AND OTHER POLICIES: Overall accumulation of percentages earned: 90 percent and above: A; 80% - below 90%: B; 70% - below 80%: C; 60% - below 70%: D; Less than 60%: F Course Policies: No make-up examination will be provided without a valid documentary proof acceptable to the instructor. All make-up examinations will be given during the final exam week. Homework or assignments turned in late will not be graded. Critical Thinking assignment, homework assignments, and excel assignments must be your own work (must not be done as a group). If you are unable to attend class, you still can turn in your assignment on time via e-mail. Use of cell phones, iPods, MP3 players, other electronic storage devices, and hats will not be allowed during examination hours. This course requires appropriate learning efforts by the student. See the instructor for permission to use laptops or non-English electronic dictionaries. ATTENDANCE POLICY: Regular class attendance is crucial to the development of a student’s knowledge and skills. Student evaluation is based upon both active class participation and upon completed projects. ACADEMIC DISHONESTY: At Emporia State University, academic dishonesty is a basis for disciplinary action. Academic dishonesty includes, but is not limited to, activities such as cheating and plagiarism (presenting as one's own the intellectual or creative accomplishments of another without giving credit to the source or sources). Cheating in homework assignment(s) will cause automatic loss of all homework points for the course. Any student who cheats during an examination or who assists another student in cheating an examination will result in a grade of "F" for the course. The case will also be informed to the appropriate school officials for further action. Cheating includes, but not limited to, crib sheets, copying answers from another student's exam, use of recording devices, and gaining unauthorized prior access to examinations or answers. If you have any doubts, ask your instructor before you submit the work as your own. Emporia State University may impose penalties for academic dishonesty up to and including expulsion from the university. The student has the right to appeal the charge of academic dishonesty in accordance with the university's Academic Appeals policy and procedure as set forth in section 9A-04 of the Faculty Handbook. Major Field Test (MFT) in Business: All students pursuing a Bachelor of Science are required to earn a score of 135 (or higher) of a possible 200 on the Major Field Test in Business (MFT). The MFT is administered to students enrolled in MG 473-Business Policy. Some of the content of this course is a portion of the material that is examined on the MFT. More information about the MFT is available at http://www.ets.org/mft. You are encouraged to learn this material in depth and remember it. You are also encouraged to keep your course materials to assist you in doing a quick review prior to taking the MFT. The following topics are included in the MFT: 1. Measure of set operations; 2. Conditional/joint probabilities; 3. Counting rules; 4. Measures of Central Tendency and Dispersion; 5. Distributions (including Normal and Binomial); 6.Sampling and estimation; 7. Hypothesis Testing; 8. Correlation and Regression; 9. Time-series forecasting; 10. Statistical concepts in quality control. Syllabus, BU 255A-Business Statistics, Fall 2012, MIC, P 3 TENTATIVE SCHEDULE OF TOPICS TO BE COVERED: DATE 8/15 8/15-20 CHAPTER 8/22-27 Ch. 2 Construction of a Frequency Distribution, Relative Frequency Distribution, Graphic Presentation of a Frequency DistributionHistogram, Frequency Polygon, Cumulative Frequency Polygon; Pie Charts 8/29-9/5 Ch. 3 Describing Data: Measures of Center and Location, Parameters and Statistics, Population mean, Sample mean, Impact of Extreme Values on the Mean, Weighted Mean, Median, Mode, Skewed and Symmetric Distributions, Geometric Mean, Measures of DispersionRange, Mean Deviation, Variance and Standard Deviation (sample and population), Chebyshev’s Theorem, The Empirical Rule, Mean and Standard Deviation of Grouped Data 9/7, 10 Ch. 4 9/10 Measures of position- Quartiles, Deciles, and Percentiles; Box Plots, Coefficient of Skewness Address questions related to exam. I materials 9/12/2012 (W) EXAM I 9/14 9/14 Address questions related to exam. I Computer assignment in Excel on mean, standard deviation, and other measures. Ch. 1 BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF CLASS TOPIC Explain the Syllabus Meaning of Business Statistics; Why Study Statistics? Descriptive and Inferential Statistics, Population, Sample, Types of Variables; Data Measurement Levels-Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, and Ratio. 9/17-21 Ch. 5 Sets and set operations; Probability, Event, Independent and dependent Events, Mutually Exclusive Events, Conditional and Joint probability, Complement Rule, Addition and Multiplicative Rules of Probability; Three Counting formulas- Multiplication, Permutation and Combination 9/24-28 Ch. 6 Discrete Probability Distributions: Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Probability Distribution; Binomial Distribution and its characteristics, Binomial formula, Mean and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Distribution, Cumulative Binomial Probability Distributions; Poisson distribution and its characteristics, Poisson formula, Poisson Table, Mean and Standard Deviation of Poisson distribution, Cumulative Poisson Probability Distributions Syllabus, BU 255A-Business Statistics, Fall 2012, MIC, P 4 DATE 10/1-5 CHAPTER Ch. 7 10/5 BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF CLASS TOPIC________ _____ Normal Probability Distributions, Standard Normal Distribution and its application; Finding Areas under the Normal Curve, Normal approximation to the Binomial. Address questions related to exam. II materials 10/8/2012 (M) EXAM II 10/10 10/10-17 Address questions relating to exam. II Sampling Methods- Simple Random Sampling, Sampling Error, Role of Sample size in Sampling error, Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean, Sampling from Normal Populations, Central Limit Theorem, Finding the Z value using sampling distribution of X-bar. Ch. 8 10/19 Fall-Break 10/22-26 Ch. 9 Point Estimates; Confidence Interval estimates for a population mean and a population proportion; Margin of error; Impact of changing the confidence level; Impact of sample size on the Interval estimate, Student’s t-distribution; Estimating a Population proportion, Finite Population Correction; Sample size determination for estimating a Population Mean and a Population Proportion. 10/29-11/2 Ch. 10 One-Sample hypothesis tests for means (large and small samples); Null and Alternative hypotheses, Level of significance, Critical value, Type I & Type II errors, P- value for one tailed and two tailed tests, One and two tailed tests about Population Mean and Population Proportion (large sample, small sample, sigma known or unknown). 11/2 11/5/2012 (M) 11/7 11/7, 9 Address questions relating to exam. III EXAM III Ch. 11 11/12 11/16 11/16, 19 11/21-23 Address questions related to exam. III materials Hypothesis tests for the difference between two population means, Hypothesis testing for paired (dependent) samples. Veterans Day Ch. 13 Computer assignment in excel based on Chapters 5-11 materials. Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis; Scatter diagram, Dependent and Independent variables, Correlation versus regression, Coefficient of correlation, Significance test for the coefficient of correlation, Simple Linear Regression, Least Square estimates and their meaning, Coefficient of determination, regression analysis for prediction. Thanksgiving vacation Syllabus, BU 255A-Business Statistics, Fall 2012, MIC, P 5 DATE 11/26 11/26, 28 CHAPTER 11/30-12/3 Ch. 17 Nonparametric Methods: Chi-Square applications (Equal and Unequal expected frequencies) 12/5-12/7 12/7 Ch.19 Statistical Process Control and Quality Management Address questions related to final exam materials 12/12/2012 Ch. 16 BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF CLASS TOPIC_________________ Computer assignment on Simple Regression and Correlation analysis. Time Series and forecasting: Components of a time series, Moving Average method, Linear Trend, and Seasonal variation FINAL EXAM (Wed., 10:10 a.m. -12:00 Noon) OTHER: Instructor discretions and circumstances during the semester may lead to revision of the course content. DISABLED STUDENT POLICY: Any special arrangements that may be necessary will be made to accommodate students with documented disabilities. Students need to contact the Director of Disability Services and the professor as early in the semester as possible. Office of disability services and Non-Traditional Student Programs is located at 250 SE Morse Hall. Contact info: (620)-341-5222 Voice, (620)-341-6646 TTY, or e-mail: disabser@emporia.edu. WITHDRAWL POLICY: October 24, 2012 is the last day to withdraw from a class with a "W" on academic transcript. After that date the instructor must assign a grade. EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS: In the event of a tornado evacuation from the classroom, use the stairwells of the building and go to the first floor hallway. In the event of a fire, exit the building using the steps nearest the classroom and meet on the west side of Cremer Hall. If anyone needs special assistance to get down the stairs, please let me know the first day of class so that special arrangements can be made. Syllabus, BU 255A-Business Statistics, Fall 2012, MIC, P 6 Business Statistics 1. Must be logical (think rationally) and must be detailed 2. The course is highly cumulative and has an extensive technical vocabulary 3. It is a precise field. A seemingly minor mistake in procedures may lead to a very wrong answer. 4. Luck is NOT the key to succeed in Statistics. Comments/experience (not edited) from previous students (Spring 2005- Spring 2010): Statistics can be applied to all subjects in some way. Homework keeps this very difficult subject fresh in my mind Challenging yet achievable if you apply yourself. I really learned a lot in this class. It is not an easy class that’s for sure. I know that this class is essential for Operations Management. I learned mainly to be persistent and precise, because one mistake can mess up the entire analysis and your grade in the class. To pass the tests in statistics it took constant reading the material every week and doing every assignment In Business Statistics I have learned critical thinking. It takes a lot of thought and concentration to learn statistics. This class has helped me to become a better critical thinker. This class has been very beneficial. When I first started out in this class, I didn’t think this class would be more than another math class. However, I quickly discovered that statistics is used to solve problems in the real world. This class has shown me how to connect to the real world which is something most classes lack. Thanks for a great semester! I’ve learned a lot. I learned that sometimes the complicated things are actually the ones that make our life much easier. I feel lucky, and I am very glad that I took this class because at that point I feel much smarter about many things that happen to me every day. We all know that Business Statistics involves a lot of hard material but thanks to you I think we all had a good time after all. I learned to come to class because if you don’t you miss too much and hate to teach yourself. I learned that doing homework every class actually helps and it is not pointless and cruel. A lot of things we learned in class are easily transferred to real life problems and our examples in class were great for that cause. I learned that Math is still easy if you know the concepts. Another aspect of this class is that it expanded my mind to new ways of thinking and solving problems. Overall I have found the course to be off great value to me. Very insightful class. Syllabus, BU 255A-Business Statistics, Fall 2012, MIC, P 7