Chapter 1: An introduction to microeconomics Chapter 1 An introduction to microeconomics 1.1 What is economics all about? Each day we read and hear reports about the economy because it affects our lives in many ways. Economics studies the decisions made by individuals, businesses, governments and other groups. While not all of these decisions are economic in nature, many will tend to have economic consequences. Economics is, therefore, a social (and sometimes imprecise) science that tries to answer a number of big questions, such as those listed below. •How do people choose what they consume? •How do producers decide what and how they will produce? •How are these choices influenced by new discoveries and technological change? •What determines what a person earns? •Why do some people become unemployed? •Why do prices change for goods and services? •Why do governments intervene and how are living standards affected? •What factors influence world trade and how does interaction with the rest of the world influence Australia’s living standards? •Why does poverty occur and why are some countries richer than others? Study tip: In economics, we often use the expression ‘economic agents’ to refer to any entity (such as a person, household, government or business) that makes economic decisions. Ultimately, economics studies human behaviour; why we make the decisions we do and what motivates us to make these decisions. Economists want to know how the world works and the implications of all the decisions that are made. An economy is a place where scarce resources are allocated among competing uses. Economists distinguish between three main types of resources that can be used to produce goods and services to meet the needs and wants of the people on the planet. For this reason, they are also referred to as factors of production, where the quantity and quality of these factors of production has a big impact on national living standards or welfare. The three factors are as follows. • • • L and or natural resources refers to all those resources that occur in nature. These can be utilised in the production process to generate more elaborate products or consumed in their raw form. Examples of such resources include, water, forests, minerals, land, animals, fruit and vegetables. It may seem obvious but all production depends on natural resources. Labour refers to the mental and physical effort by humans in the production process. In Chapter 6 a detailed analysis of the Australian labour force will be undertaken. The Australian labour force only includes those who are employed plus those who are actively seeking employment. This means that some labour resources may not be available for firms to use in the production process. Capital refers to those resources that have been made by combining labour and natural resources to create a more sophisticated input in the production process. Capital goods are made with the intention of making more goods and services in the future and generally these will increase the efficiency with which natural resources can be converted into end-use products for consumption. A common example of a capital resource is machinery, such as computers and robotics. In some texts you will see reference to a fourth scarce resource (or factor of production) referred to as entrepreneurship or enterprise. This refers to the skills of those individuals who combine our resources to produce goods and services. They take financial risks to establish enterprises and are extremely important to wealth creation for every nation. They not only include high profile entrepreneurs like Rupert Murdock, Bill Gates or James Packer, but include the owners of every small or medium sized business in existence. This type of scarce resource typically forms part of ‘labour resources’ given that entrepreneurs are providing their expertise or skills to the business sector of the economy. 1 Economic Fundamentals in Australia Each economy around the world attempts to answer the three basic economic questions: 1.What goods and services will be produced and in what quantities? 2. How will the goods and services be produced? 3.For whom will these goods and services be produced? In any economy these economic questions could be answered in a number of ways. In Australia we rely predominantly on the market to answer these questions. The types of goods and services that are produced is primarily determined by the decisions of consumers. When a person buys a product at a given price they send a signal to the market. This behaviour gives producers the incentive to produce the product if doing so brings with it an economic profit. The producers will look to produce the good or service to the highest quality level and at the lowest cost. Primarily, they will be driven by the profit motive, as well as a desire to gain repeat business and develop a good reputation. The goods and services will be allocated to those who are willing and able to exchange their income, gained from a variety of sources, for the products. The system described above is a market system where the interaction of demand and supply arrives at a market price and quantity traded. Study tip: In the VCE 3/4 Economics course, we focus on the role of the Federal Government and how it influences resource allocation. In reality, all levels of government (which includes State and Local governments) play an active role in re-allocating resources to areas considered to be in the national interest. In the Australian economy, the allocation of resources is also influenced by the government. The government may choose to intervene in the free market to ensure that certain goods and services are produced and others are not. The government may also regulate the production activities of private producers so that they do not cause unnecessary pollution or excessive depletion of natural resources. The government also redistributes income and provides services so that those who may not be able to afford necessities in a free market are able to access them. This combination of market capitalism and planned socialism makes Australia a mixed economy. Refer to Box 1.1 to gain a better understanding of the different ways economies can allocate scarce resources. Box 1.1 Different systems used to allocate resources Market capitalism A market is seen as any place that allows buyers and sellers to interact and exchange goods and services. This interaction and exchange may or may not take place in a physical space. A market system is therefore one that allocates resources based on the buying and selling decisions of consumers and producers. Prices give signals which influence the behaviour of these buyers and sellers. Capitalism refers to an economic system where the majority of productive resources are owned by private individuals and firms. Capitalists will therefore use their assets to generate revenue which motivates them to provide the goods and services that are demanded. Planned Socialism A completely different type of economic system is one in which the government is primarily responsible for resource allocation. Governments may make long-term and short-term plans about what to produce, how to produce it and who gains the produce after it is produced. This is referred to as a planned economy. Socialism indicates that the majority of productive assets are state owned (owned by the people of the country collectively) and therefore no one can benefit excessively from producing goods and services. Planned Capitalism An unusual economic system may evolve whereby the government directs the private owners of productive assets to produce certain goods and services. This has been utilised by countries during war time when the owners of factors of production are directed to the production of goods and services that are needed for defence. Market Socialism Under this system the government owns most of the resources but markets determine what goods and services are ultimately produced. For example, the businesses may be owned by the government but their operations would be left to independently appointed management who would try to maximise profits. 2 Chapter 1: An introduction to microeconomics As an introduction to economics, it is often useful to look at a number of principles that were developed by Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard Professor. These principles are related to how people make decisions (1 -4), how people interact (5 -7) and how the economy as a whole works (7 -10). These principles are summarised in Table 1.1 and become a useful starting point for any discussion about the economy. One needs to be aware that in order for economists to arrive at some of their conclusions, they must make simplifying assumptions. For example, for much of our analysis of the market mechanism, it will be assumed that markets are completely flexible so that there is perfect information and prices are very responsive to changes in demand and supply. This may be somewhat unrealistic, as producers do not always have all the information they require to make perfect pricing decisions and prices change very infrequently for many goods and services. To illustrate, when was the last time a ticket to the movies increased in price (or decreased)?. While the demand and supply for a movie ticket may change on a daily basis, the price of the tickets changes only rarely. The operation of the market, and limitations on its free operation, will be considered in more detail in Chapter 2. As you proceed through this book, keep Mankiw’s principles in mind. As you gain a greater understanding of economics, you will be in a better position to question whether Mankiw’s principles are accurate or overly simplistic. For example, one notable ecological economist, Herman Daly, would argue that there is inadequate reference to the environment in Mankiw’s principles, arguing that instead, these should be a key starting point for a discussion on Economics. The issue of the economy and the environment will be discussed in more depth in Chapters 4 and 16. Table 1.1 Mankiw’s “Ten Principles of Economics” 1 People face tradeoffs In order to get something you like, you usually have to give up something else. 2 The cost of something is what you give up to get it Whenever a decision is made the decision maker looks at the explicit costs but also include the value of what they have given up. 3 Rational people think at the margin This is another way of saying that a rational person will do something if the extra benefit of doing so exceeds the extra cost associated with the action. 4 People respond to incentives The behaviour of people will change when the costs and benefits associated with any action change. 5 Trade can make everyone better off Trade allows people and countries to specialise in what they do best. By trading, a country’s citizens are generally able to buy more goods and services and therefore increase living standards. 6 Markets are usually a good way to organise economic activity In his 1776 book An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith observed that households and firms interacting in a market act as if they are guided by an “invisible hand” that leads them to desirable market outcomes. Prices are generally seen as the way the invisible hand works its magic. 7 Governments can sometimes improve market outcomes In some cases markets are unable to efficiently allocate resources (referred to as market failure). In these cases governments develop public policy to reallocate resources to those areas that will maximise society’s wellbeing. 8 A country’s standard of living Income is derived from the production of goods and services, so producing depends on its ability to produce a greater volume of goods and services will increase living standards. goods and services Increases in productivity will mean that more goods and services can be produced from a nation’s resources thereby increasing income and living standards. 9 Prices rise when the government When the government creates large volumes of its money, its value will fall. prints too much money If this is the case, and there are the same number of goods and services available, then it makes sense that more money will be needed to purchase a given good or service. 10 Society faces a short-term trade off between inflation and unemployment Reducing inflation often results in a temporary increase in the unemployment rate because it may require policies that reduce the ability of consumers to spend. Study tip: While knowledge of Mankiw’s principles of economics will enhance and provide a frame of reference for your understanding of economics, they are not required knowledge according to the VCE Economics Study Design. 3 Economic Fundamentals in Australia Microeconomics and Macroeconomics Microeconomics is the study of the economic behaviour of individuals as consumers and producers. The first three chapters of this book have a microeconomics focus and, in particular, the factors that influence the choices made by individuals and businesses. Microeconomics studies the role of markets in allocating resources and how the government intervenes in individual markets to improve efficiency. Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole. Macroeconomics therefore builds on the knowledge gained from studying the individual components of the economy. The aggregates that will be considered in this book will be Australia’s national income, production and expenditure (real GDP), inflation, unemployment, the current account deficit and net foreign debt and how Australia’s income is distributed. Macroeconomics is therefore concerned with the ‘big picture’ of how the economy works and how the government may influence the level of economic activity through the use of aggregate demand and aggregate supply side policies. 1.2 Relative scarcity, opportunity cost and the basic economic questions “Praise, like gold and diamonds, owes its value only to its scarcity. ” – Samuel Johnson Scarcity is an important concept in economics. It can be simplified by comparing the needs and wants of society with the resources available to meet those needs and wants. Relative scarcity occurs because (most) resources are generally seen as finite whereas needs and wants are assumed to be relatively infinite. Both rich and poor individuals and countries face scarcity. Economies set about solving the problem of scarcity (and are unlikely to ever succeed). Faced with scarcity, individuals, businesses, governments and other groups must make choices. We cannot have everything we want and there aren’t enough hours in the day to do everything we want to do. We must therefore allocate our scarce resources to those areas that will maximise our wellbeing. Accordingly, economics attempts to understand the choices made by different economic agents, the consequences of these choices and how changing circumstances can affect choice. To illustrate, the Federal Government would like to spend more on defence, health, education and other services, but a lack of resources means that there will always be competing interests. Economists use the term opportunity cost to describe the value of the next best alternative that is foregone whenever a choice is made. The best thing that you choose not to do is sometimes referred to as the economic cost. Opportunity cost could be measured in a number of ways. Let’s consider the decision to buy a new Hi Fi system. A person with no background in economics may think that the cost of the purchase is the price paid. A person who has studied economics, however, will soon learn that the opportunity cost has not been considered in this analysis. The person who foregoes $2000 to purchase the new stereo can no longer afford to take an overseas holiday. This is the real cost of the purchase if it was the next best alternative for the person in question. If the person has a mortgage then the opportunity cost might be that they now have to pay more interest on their home loan and they may have to work for more years to pay it off. It is important to remember that there can only be one opportunity cost, and that is the value of the next best alternative which has been foregone. The existence of scarcity means that resources have competing uses. It also means that sometimes people need to compete against each other to obtain the goods and services they desire. Competition has evolved and many aspects of competition have been facilitated by a legal framework. The Australian economy assumes that people own what they have acquired through the voluntary exchange of goods and services. People contribute to the production process in exchange for financial or non-financial reward. This income can then be used to purchase their needs and wants. If there is competition for particular goods and services then the purchaser who is able to offer the most favourable exchange will be rewarded. This may mean a seller offering a lower price or a buyer offering a higher price. 4 Chapter 1: An introduction to microeconomics Relative scarcity? Wants/Needs > Resources Case Study/Analysis task 1.1 Dealing with relative scarcity in Australia and overseas Scarcity can be described in a microeconomic sense (in terms of households or businesses) or in a macroeconomic sense (the whole economy). Each country around the world deals with relative scarcity in a different manner. For Australian households, there may be a scarcity of resources to meet their wants rather than their needs. In some countries, such as heavily indebted poor countries, the inability of the population to meet their daily needs truly highlights the power of relative scarcity. In Australia, relative scarcity certainly exists because needs and wants are greater than the resources available. The problem of relative scarcity is therefore addressed in a country like Australia through a combination of market forces and government intervention. Relative scarcity essentially means that choices must be made so that scarce resources are allocated. In Australia, this “directing” of resources is done by price signals. The prices are determined by the interaction of demand and supply. Increased demand will send signals to producers that certain goods and services should be produced. Unfortunately, this might mean that the “wants” of some people will result in fewer resources being available to satisfy the “needs” of other people - there is an opportunity cost. For example, some people may be able to purchase a Ferrari, while other people cannot afford a roof over their head. The market does not concern itself with judging whether this is right or wrong. It is impartial in the way it allocates scarce resources. In terms of the world economy, decisions made by people in Australia may actually affect the degree of relative scarcity experienced in other countries. For example, the decision by an Australian family to take a holiday overseas might actually increase the ability of foreign workers to purchase their needs and wants as their incomes rise. Alternatively, the popularity of a tourist location might impact negatively on the ability of others to satisfy their needs and wants as the prices of basic goods like real estate and food are increased in the tourist location, perhaps forcing some local residents to relocate. Similarly, a decision by a large multinational firm to “exploit” foreign labour and resources might mean that it is harder for them to develop their economy effectively and reduce the causes of poverty (where there is generally more scarcity experienced – especially in terms of needs). The Australian government interferes in the free market to reallocate resources and help some people to meet their needs. If there was no government intervention then some people might actually starve to death, have nowhere to live and never become educated. These needs are therefore provided by taxing incomes and spending or reallocating these funds, either directly or indirectly, to those in need. As you proceed through this book, keep this important concept in the back of your mind, as all economic discussion can eventually be brought back to relative scarcity, choice and opportunity cost. Application questions 1. Explain what is meant by the term relative scarcity. 2. Discuss how markets in Australia deal with the problem of relative scarcity. Is this a fair way to allocate resources? 3. Outline why the Australian Government intervenes in the market with respect to the problem of relative scarcity. 4. Identify and discuss one example where the decisions made in Australia might increase relative scarcity in another country. (Students should try to use a different example to those mentioned in the case study.) 5. Identify and discuss one example where the decisions made by Australian households could help foreigners to meet more needs and wants. (Students should try to use a different example to those mentioned in the case study.) 5 Economic Fundamentals in Australia 1.3 The production possibility frontier One way of illustrating the concept of opportunity cost is to use a production possibility diagram, also called a production possibility frontier (PPF). An economy has a number of choices that can be made in terms of how to allocate its scarce resources. Any allocation of resources to the production of certain goods and services will mean that an alternative combination cannot be achieved, hence the concept of opportunity cost arises. For simplicity it is useful to assume that the economy can produce two types of products – Goods or Services. A combination of goods and services may be produced using the available resources (factors of production) and the available technology for a small economy. The combination of goods and services for a theoretical economy is show in Table 1.2 Table 1.2 Production possibilities Production combinations Production of services (units per year - million) Production of goods (units per year - million) A 600 0 B 570 50 C 450 175 D 300 275 E 100 335 F 0 350 If the data above is transferred to a Production Possibilities Frontier (PPF) then it would appear like Figure 1.1, with the production of goods on one axis (in this case the y-axis) and production of services on the other axis (x-axis). The economy has a number of choices when it comes to allocating resources. The economy can choose, for example, to allocate all of its scarce resources to the production of services (at which point they would produce 600 million services and no goods). If they were able to achieve this point along the PPF then it is said that they have efficiently allocated their resources because they have been utilised to get the maximum that can be made with the resources. Figure 1.1 Production Possibility Frontier 400 350 Production of goods 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Production of services The hypothetical economy could choose any of the points along the PPF and in doing so there would always be trade-offs. Once a point on the PPF has been reached the only way to move to another point is to give something up. For example if the economy moves from point A to C it will gain 175 goods, but in doing so it will no longer be able to produce 150 services (which is the opportunity cost of producing the first 175 goods). All points along the PPF represent efficient outcomes in the sense that the maximum volume of goods and services is being produced from the resources available. But which one is the most efficient? There is only one point along the PPF that achieves the maximum satisfaction for society. This is referred to as allocative efficiency (see section 1.4) and its location will depend on the preferences of the citizens of the country. Consumers may reveal their preferences through their buying decisions and governments may decide to intervene in the market to ensure that resources are allocated more efficiently. Prices will give signals to producers and consumers which will generally promote the production of those goods and services that are most valued by a society. The mechanics of the market as a way to allocate resources will be discussed in Chapter 2. 6 Chapter 1: An introduction to microeconomics Things to note about the PPF: •A movement along the PPF to the left means a country is allocating more to the production of goods and less to the production of services. To increase production of goods the economy must sacrifice the production of some services (the opportunity cost of producing extra goods). •Points outside the PPF are not achievable today, but the economy may be able to consume a combination of goods and services that is outside the PPF through specialisation and trade. •Over time, a country may expand its productive capacity and therefore the PPF will shift to the right. Points outside the current PPF will therefore be obtainable as a result of improvements in the quality or quantity of resources or more productive use of resources. •Points inside the current PPF indicate that the economy is not allocating its resources efficiently. It may also mean that some resources are either underemployed or unemployed (see Chapter 6) as the maximum production levels are not being attained. 1.4 An efficient allocation of resources Allocative efficiency There are an infinite number of ways that resources could be allocated in an economy. A small change in consumer preferences or technology or the availability of resources will have implications for the way resources are allocated. The most efficient allocation of resources will be one that is able to maximise the needs and wants of society. If resources are allocated efficiently the goods and services that people want will be produced in the best possible way; i.e the right goods and services will be produced. Goods and services will be made in the right quantities and will generally go to those people who value them the most. When allocative efficiency occurs no resources will be wasted and it will be impossible to make someone better off without making someone else worse off. From a production point of view, the cost of producing a given output is minimised (or maximising the output from a given quantity of inputs) and from a consumption point of view, the goods and services produced by society will provide the highest level of ‘collective’ satisfaction. While this ideal may never be achieved in reality, it is certainly possible to make assessments about whether resources are being allocated more efficiently over time. A reduction in waste or higher living standards for a society may be some of the indicators used to assess whether a society is allocating its resources more efficiently. Economists have identified a number of alternative ways of explaining efficiency. Technical (or productive) efficiency will occur when it is not possible to increase output without increasing inputs (resources). Therefore the most technically efficient point of production occurs where productivity is at a maximum and where average costs are at a minimum. Technical efficiency, could therefore be improved if workers are able to produce more goods or services per hour worked (an increase in labour productivity). Dynamic efficiency refers to how quickly an economy can reallocate resources to achieve allocative efficiency. Because prices are often seen as ‘sticky’ it takes some time before resources are reallocated to where they are best able to meet the needs and wants of society. Successive Federal Governments from both sides of politics have encouraged flexibility in a range of markets to promote dynamic efficiency (for, by example, deregulating markets or removing subsidies that distort the allocation of resources). This will be covered in more detail in Chapter 15. Study tip: When discussing the impact of a change in economic conditions or government policy on efficiency try to focus on one or two of the types of efficiency discussed above. In recent times economists have been concerned about how resources are allocated over different time periods. If resources are consumed in excessive proportions by current generations then future generations may suffer a relative decrease in living standards. Alteration of the earth’s delicate ecosystem could also decrease the earth’s ability to facilitate future growth in the economy. If inadequate savings are available then investment opportunities may be missed. Current investment translates into future consumption so it is important for a country’s long term economic prosperity to maintain adequate levels of investment. The need for balancing current and future consumption is often referred to as inter-temporal efficiency. There is often a complementary relationship between each of the types of efficiency. For example, if the economy is able to generate more goods and services at a lower cost then it is likely that technical efficiency will be achieved. By producing more at the lowest possible cost, more goods and services can be attained which is likely to maximise society’s needs and wants (i.e. improve allocative efficiency). A society that is dynamically efficient is also more likely to achieve allocative efficiency. When market conditions change, businesses need to respond quickly and if they are able to do so then they are more likely to maximise the needs and wants of society. 7 Economic Fundamentals in Australia Achieving one type of efficiency, however, does not guarantee that another type will also be achieved. For example, an economy could be technically efficient by reducing costs and boosting productivity. But if this involves producing goods and services that nobody wants, then it will not be seen as allocatively efficient. Similarly a decision by the Federal Government to subsidise solar panels will help to promote inter-temporal efficiency because it will reduce greenhouse gases. Experts have agreed, however, that it is probably one of the most inefficient ways for an economy to reduce carbon emissions. In this respect, the improvement in intertemporal efficiency is not matched by an improvement in allocative efficiency. Case Study/Analysis task 1.2 Fuel subsidies for the mining industry – an inefficient allocation of resources? In some cases, decisions made by government may actually lead to a more inefficient allocation of resources. Decisions may have been made in the past that seemed like a good economic decision but, when viewed from a modern economic perspective, may seem to distort markets and alter incentives. Consider the case of fuel subsidies for the mining industry. The government initially introduced the Fuel Tax Credit Scheme to benefit all of those farmers who used diesel-based machinery that was never driven on public roads. This meant that farmers were effectively exempt from paying the fuel excise (which was orginally introduced to help fund the construction and maintenance of Australia’s road network). Given that the structure of the economy has changed over time, the biggest beneficiaries of the scheme are now the large mining companies. Huge mining trucks are not driven on public roads and therefore the companies gain a huge windfall. Their exemption from the fuel excise effectively amounts to a public subsidy. While subsidies to the automotive sector have been gradually cut and the government has suggested that firms need to stand on their own two feet the mining sector is still the recipient of generous government subsidies. How do these subsidies affect the efficiency of resource allocation? Allocative efficiency It could be argued that the ‘subsidy’ (or the exemption from the fuel excise) amounts to a distortion of price signals. The mining companies already make very high economic profits and by reducing their cost of production, the government is effectively encouraging more resources to be allocated to this area of production. Viewed purely in terms of prices, this will not maximize society’s needs and wants because other businesses will have to pay the taxes and this may disadvantage them in attracting needed resources compared to the mining companies. Technical efficiency The fuel excise exemption reduces the incentive for the mining companies to reduce their fuel consumption and seek the most cost effective way to transport their materials. Economic agents alter their behaviour based upon the incentives that they face. With lower fuel prices they have less incentive to reduce their waste and seek more productive production methods. Dynamic efficiency The fuel subsidy effectively protects the mining industry from fully transparent and accurate price signals. While fuel excise is expected to increase in line with inflation (see 2014/15 Budget analysis), the mining companies will not face this rising cost of production in the same way that other businesses will. Therefore they are less likely to alter their allocation of resources as quickly. Inter-temporal efficiency The subsidies send the wrong signals to the mining companies in terms of environmental sustainability. The lower fuel prices discourage conservation and the pollution caused by using excessive diesel use is unlikely to be curtailed in the industry. As a result, for example, global warming may be worsened as the companies have an incentive to mine more coal. This is an industry that does not need price advantages as it is already profitable and is associated with carbon pollution, making future generations face potential environmental costs. Application questions 1. How does allocative efficiency differ from technical efficiency? 2. Identify and justify a reason why the government may provide the mining companies with a fuel excise exemption. 3. Explain how the fuel excise exemption might affect the incentives of economic agents. 4. What might be the opportunity cost for the government in providing excise exemptions to the mining sector? 5. Explain how the fuel excise exemption is likely to result in a decrease in both technical and inter-temporal efficiency. 6. Why might an increase in one type of efficiency lead to a reduction in another? Give an example. 8 Chapter 1: An introduction to microeconomics Review questions 1.1 1. Discuss why economics is referred to as a social science. 2. Explain why economics is concerned with relative scarcity. Why does the existence of scarcity imply that there is a need for choice? 3. Discuss why there are always trade-offs associated with any decision. 4. What is the opportunity cost of buying a new computer? 5. Describe four trade-offs associated with buying a new car. 6. What is meant by the term allocative efficiency? 7. Distinguish ‘allocative efficiency’ from ‘technical efficiency.’ 8. Discuss how an improvement in technical efficiency can improve allocative efficiency. 9. Discuss how an improvement in dynamic efficiency can improve allocative efficiency. 10. Explain why it is important for an economy to focus on inter-temporal efficiency. 1.5 Factors influencing the decision making of economic agents The study of economics is generally about understanding how economic agents respond to incentives. It is assumed that rational people make decisions by analysing the costs and benefits of a decision and in doing so they respond to the incentives before them (based on their available information). Decision making by consumers When economists discuss the behaviour of consumers they often make a number of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions allow them to make predictions about the way markets may react to new economic information. Rational The average consumer is assumed to be fairly rational. This means that he or she will use their income to gain the greatest amount of satisfaction. This satisfaction is often referred to as utility and consumers aim to maximise this for the lowest possible cost. To do so they will compare the costs or benefits associated with any possible purchase and make a fully informed decision. Preferences It is generally assumed that consumers have clear preferences between the choices that are available. It is also assumed that consumers are aware of how much extra utility they are likely to gain from consuming an extra unit of the product that they will choose. The satisfaction that a person derives from a good is naturally subjective and economists do not generally attempt to explain differences between individual’s tastes. To analyse the impact of changes on markets it is generally assumed that preferences and tastes are reasonably stable. Budget constraints Each consumer is assumed to have a limited income to devote to the consumption of goods and services. Some people will obviously be less constrained than others, but the lack of income means that most consumers are forced to make choices based on their preferences and their budget constraints. The implications of these assumptions are the basis of demand analysis that will be covered in Chapter 2. It may seem obvious, but all goods and services that are purchased involve the sacrifice of income. The consumer cannot buy everything and the consumer must therefore make compromises, and choose among alternative products to obtain his or her maximum level of satisfaction. The consumer is assumed to benefit from greater consumption of a good or service rather than less and this is why products may be described as ‘goods’ (rather than ‘bads’). It is generally assumed, however, that each additional unit of a good does not necessarily generate the same degree of satisfaction. In fact, economists argue that the more of a good or service that is consumed per period, the smaller the increase in total utility that is generated from the last unit. This is referred to as diminishing marginal utility. 9 Economic Fundamentals in Australia Every person faces trade-offs in the economy. If they choose to consume more of one product then this means that their budget may not extend to another choice. The price and their income may therefore influence their choice, but what else might influence the tastes, preferences and buying behaviour of consumers? Influences on consumer choice Marketing experts spend an enormous amount of time trying to understand what motivates a consumer to purchase one product over another. They want to understand these motivations in order to influence the decision making process and encourage the consumer to shift their buying behaviour. There is obviously a vast array of factors that can influence the buying decisions of consumers. Two broad influences will be considered, but a full explanation of buying behaviour is beyond the scope of this book. Internal influences There are a range of factors that are unique to each person that may affect their decision to buy. The individual will have a certain level of knowledge of what is available and how they perceive each product. If a person has never had exposure to an iPod, and is unaware of its functionality, then it is unlikely they would sacrifice their income in exchange for the product. Consumers may also develop an attitude towards a product. If they have a bad meal at a restaurant then they may form the impression that all meals from the restaurant are bad, even if the restaurant is highly regarded in the wider community. Each person will have a perception of how they see themselves and their role in the world. This can have a big influence on their buying behaviour. For example, older citizens may make purchases that make them feel younger, or younger people may purchase products that make them feel more powerful or influential. Similarly, people cannot take in and retain all of the information that they are exposed to; they tend to filter out certain information and develop attitudes about themselves and the products that are available. As a result, each of us will have an existing set of knowledge we have gathered over our lifetime that might influence our buying decisions. We have different personalities and will therefore react differently to the information that is presented to us. Some people may be less concerned with what others think of them, while others may seek recognition and status from the goods and services they purchase. The role that a person plays in society, or in their household, can also affect buying decisions. For example, a person’s buying behaviour is likely to change once they become a parent or once they achieve a certain status or position in the community. People may also be motivated by the time available to make the decision and may in some cases worry about making the wrong decision when there is a range of options available. Clearly people have internal differences relating to patience, risk preferences, self restraint, etc. While one person may rush to purchase the latest high tech item on the shelves, others may be more patient, preferring to wait some time in order to develop a better picture of the product’s capabilities and/or limitations. External influences A consumer’s buying decisions are often influenced by their culture. This might include the way they learned certain behaviour from their family and friends, educational environment or workplace. Marketers also like to focus on sub-cultures, which refers to a smaller group that may share an ethnicity, religious belief, special interest or any other factor that may bring people together. If a person identifies with a certain sub-culture, such as Punks or Emos, this may influence their clothing and music choices. Sometimes consumers like to increase their knowledge of a product by accessing research conducted by independent organisations. A consumer who wanted to purchase a new television may want to read a recent report by a magazine or website that reviews them, such as ‘Choice’. Consumers often choose the movies they see based on the reviews they read in the paper or see on ‘At the Movies’ for example. Current affairs programs have gradually devoted more on-air time to consumer reports as the demand for information from consumers has increased. The purchase situation often has an influence on buying behaviour, even if the consumer is not aware at the time of purchase. The physical environment and the reason for the purchase may heavily influence buying decisions. The layout of a supermarket is not accidental, as much research has gone into ways to extract as much income from consumers as possible. Impulse buying, where rational evaluation of the purchase is minimal, is a good example of how the purchasing situation may influence consumer behaviour. Consumers may also buy a product in haste. For example, time constraints may cause a person to search for a gift at the last minute, resulting in the purchase of a product that is ‘sub-optimal’ compared to the one they might have purchased if more time had been allocated to the search. 10 Chapter 1: An introduction to microeconomics Advertising is used extensively to influence consumer behaviour. Successful advertising campaigns will shift consumer preferences and may encourage the purchase of a product that may not have been considered. Successful advertising may develop brand loyalty, where the purchaser may not reasonably consider a viable substitute, thereby making consumers less responsive to price changes. In addition, a lack of time may make it convenient to stick with the brand you know. The advertising industry is often accused of manipulating people to purchase goods and services that they later regret. They have employed a vast number of psychologists to understand the motivations of people. The need for approval is an aspect of the human condition that advertisers have exploited extensively and it is for this reason that the industry is often criticised. Advertising is considered in more detail in Chapter 2. Consumers may also be influenced by the behaviour and buying decisions of others. People often make inter-personal comparisons and may purchase products that are deemed to be status symbols by society. If a neighbour purchases a new car then this may motivate someone else to purchase one that is slightly better. Watching the lifestyles of others on TV can also influence buying decisions and may account for the high level of debt that many households carry in the modern era. Consumer buying behaviour may also be influenced by governments. The government can influence prices, encourage and discourage consumption of certain products and ban or mandate products. For example, the government actively makes the purchase of cigarettes unattractive. They impose high excise taxes on them, ban the consumption of the product in most public indoor areas, force producers to use only plain, unbranded packaging and run advertising campaigns designed to show that the smoking of cigarettes is very unappealing. Decision making by businesses It is generally assumed that businesses are created to make a profit. They are therefore motivated by increasing sales While minimising costs. The factors that influence their behaviour may ultimately be determined by the impact that these factors have on their bottom line. In other words, the impact they have on their level of profit. The profitability of a firm will be influenced in general by: a. The price of the product that they want to supply to the market b. Their costs of operating These factors will be covered in more detail in Chapter 2. Generally speaking, firms will respond to consumer demand by producing those goods and services desired by consumers. However, as previously discussed, businesses spend enormous amounts of money trying to influence the buying behaviour of consumers in order to create new or additional demand for their products. Chapter 3 will consider the role of competition in influencing the behaviour of firms. A lack of competition can, for example, result in a restriction in supply and higher prices for consumers. In doing so, the business knows that this strategy will generate the highest profits. Generally speaking the prevalence of competition forces a discipline on the way firms operate. They must pay attention to the behaviour of other firms who offer substitute products and find a way to make their product more appealing to consumers. A successful advertising campaign by Coca Cola, for example, may prompt Pepsi to conduct an extensive campaign to maintain their market share. Businesses may also be influenced by community attitudes. An increased awareness of environmental damage and sustainability issues may force them to analyse and alter their production practices. Ultimately the firm may be doing this to generate positive publicity that will increase their profitability. The behaviour of businesses can be significantly affected by the policy decisions made by government. The Gillard Government, for example, introduced a ‘carbon tax’ package in 2012, that placed a price on the emission of carbon pollution by many of Australia’s largest emitters. It made the production of energy using fossil fuels relatively more expensive. (see Chapter 16)This was designed to influence a number of businesses to shift resources away from these industries and into those that are more energy efficient. 11 Economic Fundamentals in Australia Decision making by government Much of the discussion in this book will examine the role of the government in the economy. Governments are elected by the population and are therefore motivated by a willingness to stay in power and do what is best for the economy at large. The government will intervene in individual markets to influence the allocation of resources, to smooth the impact of the business cycle and to redistribute income more equitably. Each of these will be considered throughout the book. Other organisations There are also a range of organisations such as not-for-profit organisations that are motivated by the desire to help others or their members. Aid agencies such as Oxfam are motivated by altruism, which is a desire to help others who may be less fortunate than themselves. Schools, clubs and associations are run to benefit their students and members respectively. Their behaviour will therefore be motivated by the impact that it will have on their members. Review questions 1.2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Outline the three key assumptions made about the way consumers behave. Discuss why consumers experience diminishing marginal utility. Explain the difference between external and internal influences on consumer buying behaviour. Describe four external factors that may influence the type of mobile phone you would choose to consume. Explain why profit is the guiding principle behind most business decisions. Explain one example of where government policy has influenced the behaviour of consumers. Explain one example of where government policy has influenced the behaviour of businesses. Explain why brand loyalty can make consumers less responsive to price changes. Multiple choice review questions 1. a) b) c) d) Economies around the world experience relative scarcity because: Natural resources are inadequate Needs and wants of consumers are manipulated by marketing experts Shortages develop in markets leading to higher prices Needs and wants are generally greater than the resources available to meet them 2. a) b) c) d) The Australian economy allocates scarce resources through: The market mechanism only Government planning A combination of the market mechanism and government planning Assessing the needs of each person 3. Which of the following statements would be inconsistent with Mankiw’s 10 principles of economics? a) China specialises in the production of clothing and trades this with Australia b)In choosing to attend university a young man gives up the opportunity to earn wages working in a local supermarket c) The government is better able to allocate resources because there wouldn’t need to be any advertising d)Australia is a rich country because we are able to utilise our resources and increase production levels each year 4. a) b) c) d) A study of microeconomics is unlikely to include: An analysis of the market for blue shirts in Australia A prediction about the future of house prices in 2015-16 The role of governments in encouraging safe levels of alcohol consumption Why the general level of prices in Australia has increased in the last 12 months 5. a) b) c) d) The opportunity cost of building a new sports pavilion at your school is: The loss of interest that the money could have earned if it were left in the bank About $2 million based on current market prices The loss of students if the pavilion had not been constructed A decrease in the number of students visiting the library 12 Chapter 1: An introduction to microeconomics 6. a) b) c) d) A country’s production possibility frontier may temporarily shift to the left if: There is an increase in the number of skilled immigrants entering. There is a decrease in demand caused by a recession The country experiences a drought for two years There is an increase in the participation rate For question 7, 8 and 9 refer to the following production possibilities for a hypothetical economy producing only services and goods (million units per year) Production combinations 7. a) b) c) d) Production of services Production of goods A 1 000 0 B 800 2 000 C 600 2 200 D 300 2 700 E 50 2 900 F 0 3 000 If the people of this country value services twice as much as goods, then the optimal allocation of resources is: Combination A Combination B Combination C Combination D 8.In 2015, the country consumed 600 services and 2400 goods. If their PPF had not expanded how could they have reached this new consumption point? a) They specialised in one area and traded with another country b) Made their workers work longer hours c) Discovered new resources d) Had an increase in rainfall that year. 9. a) b) c) d) If the country produces 600 services and 1800 goods then this may create the economic problem of: A lack of economic efficiency Unemployment Incorrect prices A lack of resource availability 10. a) b) c) d) Allocative efficiency in the Australian economy may be improved if: The taxes on alcohol are decreased The Government increases flexibility in a range of markets Taxes are placed on goods that the government deem to be luxuries Government workers are granted a pay increase 11. a) b) c) d) Inter-temporal efficiency may be improved if: Drugs and alcohol are banned from outdoor music festivals Firms are forced to pay for a permit to pollute the atmosphere Taxes are increased on the interest earned from savings Governments spend money on street lights 12. a) b) c) d) Diminishing marginal utility generally means that: Greater consumption of a product always yields more satisfaction Products that are rare will have a higher price Each additional unit consumed is a little less satisfying The opportunity cost of extra consumption is always lower 13 Economic Fundamentals in Australia 13. a) b) c) d) Supermarkets often place essential products like milk and bread at the back of the supermarket to encourage: Impulse buying Rational consideration of all the products available Increased fitness for their customers Convenience because these shelves are stacked more often 14. a) b) c) d) Which of these external factors may influence a consumer to purchase a new digital music device? A change in their music tastes An increase in the price of toasters An article in The Age reviewing the benefit of new applications A need to appear younger 15. a) b) c) d) A company is interested in developing brand loyalty amongst its customers because: It cares about its customers’ self-perception It would like its customers to be less concerned about price increases It cares about the environment It keeps its advertising department busy 16. Which of the following statements about a planned socialist country is correct? a)Assets are generally owned by the government but the buying behaviour of consumers determines what is produced b)Assets are generally owned by private firms and households and resources are generally allocated according to consumer demand. c) The government owns the assets and determines what goods and services should be produced. d)Assets are generally privately owned but the government determines what goods and services should be produced 17.Assume that you win $ 1 million in a lottery. If you choose to put the money into a high interest bearing account the opportunity cost would be: a) A loss of income from working b) An increase in income tax payable to the Federal Government c) The house that you may wish to purchase with the money d) An increased fear of a banking collapse 18. a) b) c) d) A business is unlikely to enter a new market if: there are low set up costs establishing the business there are a large number of employees who are available to work for the business there are a small number of large established businesses with strong brand loyalty the government removes restrictions on businesses in the industry 19.Which of the following changes made by business was not in response to changing community values and attitudes? a) An increase in the availability of fuel efficient vehicles b) An increase in the use of palm oil to reduce the cost of producing food c) The labelling of food with nutritional information d) Safer working conditions at building sites 20. a) b) c) d) 14 An increase in the flexibility of labour market agreements will: Increase inter-temporal efficiency Decrease allocative efficiency Increase dynamic efficiency Have no impact on technical efficiency Chapter 1: An introduction to microeconomics Chapter 1 Applied economic exercise 1 1. Draw a production possibility frontier for a small country that can produce the combinations of goods and services outlined in table 1.3 below. Table 1.3 Production possibilities Production combinations Production of services (units per year - million) Production of goods (units per year - million) A 1000 0 B 700 2000 C 600 2200 D 320 2700 E 100 2900 F 0 3000 2. Highlight a point on the PPF you have drawn which would be most efficient (in terms of allocative efficiency) if the country valued goods and services equally. 3. If the country’s preferences changed so that goods were valued twice as much as services, what would the new allocatively efficient point be on the PPF? 4. What is the opportunity cost of increasing production of services from 100 to 320 million units per year? 5. If the economy produced 320m services and 2500m goods describe the economic problem that this may cause. 6. Explain how the economy could consume 600m services and 2400m goods. 7. Explain how a movement from one point on the PPF to another can be used to illustrate the concept of ‘dynamic efficiency.’ 8. Construct a hypothetical PPF with Savings on one axis and Consumption on the other. Highlight how a movement along this PPF can demonstrate a change in ‘inter-temporal efficiency.’ Chapter 1 Applied economic exercise 2 Climatic conditions, relative scarcity and efficiency. Australia is considered to be the driest inhabited continent and drought is a regular feature of its weather patterns. A drought is seen as a prolonged period without adequate rainfall. This means that there is a lack of an essential resource to cater for users’ normal needs. It could be argued that Australians, whose livelihood is dependent upon agriculture, are the most affected during periods of drought. During periods of drought there tends to be a decrease in the productivity of the land and in some cases long term damage to the quality of the soil through loss of topsoil and erosion. Bushfires and dust storms may also become more prevalent. During 2002 and 2003 Australia was said to experience its worst drought since records began (1910). The drought shared characteristics with similar droughts in the past, but the difference was that the temperature was above average, resulting in more rapid evaporation, drying of soils and water needs for agriculture. It was estimated to have caused a 23% reduction in Australia’s agricultural production and a reduction of the rate of economic growth by 0.7 percentage points. Similarly, economic prosperity in Australia can also be worsened when a drought is broken. In early 2011, many eastern regions in Australia were negatively affected by floods, as the drought of the preceding years broke. Floods reduce the number of goods and services that are available and therefore increase the degree of relative scarcity. In addition, cyclones destroyed banana crops in 2006 and 2011. The poor weather conditions were reversed in 2012 and this helped producers to increase production, which led to a decrease in the price of much of Australia’s food. 1. Explain how unfavourable climatic conditions would affect the relative scarcity of each of the factors of production; land, labour and capital. 2. On a production possibility curve illustrate how unfavourable climatic conditions might affect Australia’s productive capacity. 3. Explain how drought may lead to an improvement in efficiency. In your answer discuss the type of efficiency that may be affected. 4. Explain how the on-going threat of climate change might affect the purchasing decisions of consumers and businesses. 5. Identify and describe one government response to the following climatic disasters in Australia: a) drought b) floods c) bush fires 15 Economic Fundamentals in Australia Chapter 1 Applied economic exercise 3 Australia could end up with a scarcity of natural gas! Australian families could face gas prices that are three times their current amount by 2021. This, on first glance, would appear to be a case of relative scarcity. Economists would predict that an increase in price is likely to be driven by the relative change in the level of demand and supply. That is, the product has become scarcer. But Australia has plenty of liquefied natural gas (LNG), so why is the price expected to increase significantly? The price prediction is linked to an expected export boom in the industry. When exporters can sell their gas to the world market at a much higher price, they will expect local buyers to pay the same price. Australians have faced much lower gas prices compared to their global counterparts so the higher prices will come as a shock to many households and businesses. This case highlights the problem of scarcity from a local and international perspective. From Australia’s perspective (and viewed in isolation), LNG is not necessarily scarce and prices have reflected this. Once Australia was able to export its LNG reserves, it entered the world market where LNG was relatively scarce. Australian buyers will now face the same scarcity problems as the rest of the world and therefore they will need to assess their current use and whether there are cheaper alternatives available. 1. If Australia were unable to trade its LNG reserves (i.e. export them to other countries), comment on the degree of relative scarcity in the industry. 2. Explain why entering the world market for LNG results in higher prices for Australian consumers. 3. “Australia could end up with a scarcity of natural gas”. Comment on the accuracy of this statement from an economic perspective. 4. Explain how changing gas prices might affect behaviour in Australia. 5. Should the government intervene in this market? Explain Chapter summary 1. Economics is the study of choices and how these choices affect the wellbeing of the individual and society. 2. All economies attempt to answer the three basic economic questions of what to produce, how to produce and for whom to produce. 3. Economists distinguish between three main types of resources that can be used to produce goods and services to meet the needs and wants of the people on the planet – land or natural resources, labour and capital. 4. Microeconomics studies the behaviour of individual economic agents whereas macroeconomics studies how the whole economy operates. 5. The primary way that resources are allocated in the Australian economy is via the market mechanism. 6. Relative scarcity occurs because the demand on resources is assumed to be infinite but the earth can only provide limited resources to meet our needs and wants. 7. Whenever a choice is made there is always a cost. The existence of trade-offs means that there will be an opportunity cost – the sacrifice of the next best alternative foregone. 8. Opportunity cost can be effectively illustrated using a production possibility frontier. This shows the combinations of goods and services that an economy can produce using all of its available resources and technology. 9. It is impossible for a country to produce at a point outside their PPF in the short term. Over time they may add to their resource pool through discoveries and immigration or find ways to use their resources more productively. 10. Any point inside the PPF represents an inefficient allocation of resources as some resources will be idle. 11. Allocative efficiency is achieved when resources are directed to those goods and services that provide society with the highest end-use. 12. Technical efficiency occurs when the society is able to produce the largest volume of goods and services from their given factors of production. 13. Dynamic efficiency can be improved when factors of production can be reallocated quickly following changing economic circumstances. 14. Inter-temporal efficiency focuses on the balance between consumption today and consumption tomorrow. 15. Consumers are assumed to be rational when making decisions based on available information about the costs and benefits of their actions. 16. All consumers are assumed to be making decisions subject to a budget constraint. 17. There are a range of internal and external factors that will influence consumer behaviour such as self esteem, perception, culture, marketing, past experiences, independent evaluations and governments. 18. The overriding factor influencing business decisions is the desire to generate profit. 16 Chapter 2: The market mechanism Chapter 2: The market mechanism: demand and supply 2.1 What is microeconomics? Microeconomics is the branch of economics that looks at the behaviour of the small economic agents that make up the whole economy. In this area of study, the behaviour of consumers and businesses is explored in detail: what motivates each of them and how they respond to changing incentives in individual markets. It is important to study microeconomics as it allows economists to make predictions about the impact of changing circumstances on prices and volumes sold. It also forms the basis of macroeconomic analysis which follows later in the course. 2.2 What is a market? The market is the main instrument for allocating scarce resources in Australia. It is therefore the primary way to answer the three key economic questions discussed in Chapter 1: • What to produce • How to produce • For whom to produce A market is seen as any place (which may or may not be a physical space) that allows buyers and sellers to interact and exchange goods and services. The purchasers of goods and services may be households, businesses, governments or a range of other economic groups such as not-for-profit organisations. The suppliers of goods and services are generally businesses, but in the labour market, households supply businesses with their labour and government bodies frequently supply goods and services. To understand how the market works, simplifying assumptions are generally made. The first is that the buyers and sellers are operating in a competitive market. A competitive market is one where there are a large number of buyers and sellers and each of them has little influence on the prices. This is often referred to as price-taking. Resources can be moved quickly in a competitive market which allows price signals to do their job. It is therefore assumed that there are low barriers to enter and exit a market so that profitable opportunities can be taken advantage of. The concept of a competitive market is discussed in more detail in Chapter 3. ‘The price that is determined in the free market is a compromise between the desires of the buyers and the sellers.’ Consumers and businesses are assumed to be acting in their own self interest. Consumers will want to obtain the good or service they wish to purchase for the lowest possible price. If they are willing to purchase the good or service at a certain price then they are giving the suppliers a clear signal that they value the good or service at least that much. If they obtain the good or service for less than the maximum they are willing to pay, then they have obtained what is referred to as consumer surplus. Consumer surplus is therefore the difference between the price the consumer is willing to pay and the market price. The seller in a competitive market, on the other hand, will try to sell their product at the highest price possible to maximise their profits (revenue less expenses). If they are able to sell the product at a price above their economic costs (which includes the opportunity cost), then they generate a producer surplus. The price that is determined in any market therefore is a compromise between how much the consumers are willing to pay and how much suppliers are willing to accept for their product. The market mechanism (or price mechanism) describes how the forces of demand and supply determine the relative prices of goods and services, which then ultimately determine the way our productive resources (e.g. labour and capital) are allocated in the economy. The role of relative prices in the allocation of resources will be discussed more fully in section 2.9. 17 Economic Fundamentals in Australia 2.3 The law of demand and the demand curve As mentioned in the previous section, buyers in any market will generally want to obtain the product at the lowest price possible and will exchange the amount of money for what they see as equal to, or less than, the value they place on the product. It is logical therefore that at higher price levels, less of most goods and services will be demanded. As the price rises, the opportunity costs associated with purchasing the product will increase, resulting in some buyers dropping out of the market. In simple terms, the willingness and ability to purchase the good or service diminishes as prices rise. The law of demand →→ As the price decreases, the quantity demanded increases. →→ As the price increases, the quantity demanded decreases. The law of demand makes sense for the following reasons: • • • Some people may no longer be able to afford the product as the price rises. At a lower price we can afford more of a good or service. As the price increases, however, some household budgets will no longer cater for the purchase of the product. Economists commonly refer to this as the ‘income effect’. Price is generally seen as an obstacle that may deter people from buying a product and an increase in price may mean that the supplier is now asking for an amount that exceeds what people think the product is worth. Given that each person is assumed to have an amount they are willing to pay for a good or service (based on its perceived value to them), it makes sense that at higher prices less will be demanded. More people will drop out of the market as the price exceeds its perceived value. Higher prices may also encourage consumers to look at the alternatives that are available in the market. When the price of one good increases, consumers will look towards cheaper substitutes so quantity demanded is likely to fall. Economists commonly refer to this as the ‘substitution effect’. Many products are subject to diminishing marginal utility. Each successive item of the product purchased yields less satisfaction. Therefore a lower price is needed to induce greater purchases of the product by individuals. Attending a house auction is a clear way to see how the law of demand works. There is generally one product for sale (the house) and there are generally a number of possible buyers who are interested in the property. In this environment, the potential buyers must compete against one another. As the price is bid up, the number of potential buyers decreases. The person who places the highest bid obviously wins the auction. Those who have dropped out of the race have either accepted that the price is above their budget or have decided that the house is not worth the price that has been achieved. There may also be similar houses nearby which they believe may sell for less. If there is only one person who is interested in the property then they may obtain it for less than what they were willing to pay. Thankfully the real estate agent is unable to read the mind of the buyer. An alternative way to think about the law of demand is to think about the sales conducted by retail outlets. When stock is released to the market, it may sit on the shelf for longer than what the retailer would like. The retailer is then keen to free up shelf space and reduces the price to attract customers. As the price is reduced, some Table 2.1 - Demand for compact discs consumers will decide that the product is now worth the lower purchase price and sales should increase as more consumers will also be able to Price (AUD) Quantity demanded per week afford the product. There are a range of factors that affect the quantity demanded in any market but people cannot generally visualise more than two dimensions. Economists have therefore decided that it makes more sense to choose the most important factor that influences the demand for most goods and services, namely price. The demand curve therefore shows the relationship between various possible prices for a product and the quantity that consumers would be willing and able to buy at each of these prices. 5.00 120,000 10.00 100,000 15.00 80,000 20.00 60,000 25.00 40,000 30.00 20,000 Consider the following hypothetical information about the market for prerecorded compact discs . Table 2.1 shows the number of CDs that would be purchased at any given price. It is clear that the demand for CDs follows the law of demand. Lower prices result in an increase 18 Chapter 2: The market mechanism in the quantity demanded and higher prices result in a lower quantity demanded. For example, if the price of CDs increases from $5.00 to $10.00, demand contracts from 120,000 per week to 100,000 per week. The law of demand is represented in a two dimensional diagram with the price on the vertical (y) axis and the quantity demanded on the horizontal (x) axis. This is represented in Figure 2.1 . It is important to note that when the price of the product changes, there will be a movement along the demand curve. When prices increase, demand generally contracts (moves left along the demand curve). When prices fall, demand usually expands (moves right along the demand curve). Figure 2.1 Demand for compact discs per week Price($) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Demand Quantity (000) It is also necessary to be able to distinguish a movement along the demand curve versus a shift of the demand curve. In both cases the demand for a good or service will change, but the reasons for the change are distinct. A movement along the curve occurs when a price change has caused the quantity demanded to be different. A shift of the entire demand curve will occur when one of the factors of demand have changed and, therefore, at any given price there is either an increase or decrease in the quantity demanded. These demand factors will now be discussed in section 2.4. 2.4 M icroeconomic demand side factors that influence price and quantity Price is a significant factor that influences the demand for any good or service purchased in the market. There are a range of other factors, however, that will affect the quantity demanded for a given product and each will cause the demand curve to shift. When the demand curve is constructed, it is assumed that each of these other demand factors is held constant (ceteris paribus). Whenever one or more of them changes, the position of the demand curve will also change. If the demand curve shifts to the right this means that for each given price, there is a greater quantity demanded. A change in a factor of demand will cause a shift in the demand curve. Accordingly, if a demand factor causes demand to increase, the demand curve will shift to the right, and if a demand factor causes demand to decrease, the demand curve will shift to the left. Some of the more significant factors that affect the demand for goods and services include: disposable income, changes in interest rates, the price of substitutes, the price of complements, preferences and tastes, population growth and demographic change and consumer sentiment. Each of these is discussed below. Disposable income Disposable income is defined as the total income that households have received in exchange for their participation in the production process plus government transfers less direct (income) taxes. This represents the total amount that consumers (or businesses) have to spend on goods and services. Study tip: It is important to distinguish between disposable income and discretionary income. Income tax increases will decrease disposable income but interest rate increases won’t (unless the individual has savings) because the individual will still receive the same rewards from their contribution to the production process. Discretionary income is a measure of how much households have to spend on non-essential items. An increase in disposable income will generally lead to an increase in demand for normal goods. This will shift the demand curve to the right as consumers (and businesses) may be willing and able to purchase a greater quantity at any given price. Some goods, however, are considered to be inferior. These are goods where demand actually decreases when disposable income increases. For example, a home brand product in a supermarket would be considered an inferior good because people are likely to substitute towards higher quality branded products as their income increases. Referring to the previous example regarding pre-recorded compact discs, if the government granted a tax cut to all workers then the disposable income of all those who receive a taxable income would increase. Some of these workers may choose to spend their increased income on purchasing music, even if the price remained the same. 19 Economic Fundamentals in Australia This would be represented by a shift of the demand curve to the right and the demand information could change as follows in table 2.2: Figure 2.2 Table 2.2 - Higher Demand for compact discs Price (AUD) Demand for compact discs per week (after a tax cut) Quantity demanded per week 5.00 130,000 10.00 110,000 15.00 90,000 20.00 70,000 25.00 50,000 30.00 30,000 Price($) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 D1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 D2 100 110 120 130 Quantity (000) Figure 2.2 shows how a personal income tax cut affects the demand for compact discs. For example, at a price of $20.00, the demand has increased by 10,000 CDs per week, from 60,000 to 70,000. This occurs at every other price, which is why the demand curve has shifted to the right in a parallel fashion. The tax cut in this case is likely to result in an extra 10,000 CDs being demanded per week (we can’t yet predict how many will be sold) across Australia as people have chosen to allocate some of their extra disposable income to this product. Change in interest rates Increases in interest rates will generally have the greatest impact on those who are indebted. Home loans in Australia are usually based on variable interest rates, which means that the banks can adjust the amount payable in line with changing economic circumstances. An increase in interest rates will mean that indebted households (and businesses) will have less discretionary income after paying interest. This will result in a decrease in demand and a shift of the demand curve to the left. In this case, less will be purchased at each price. There are a number of other ways (called transmission mechanisms) that changes in interest rates can affect the demand for goods and services. These will be discussed in more detail under the monetary policy section (Chapters 12 and 13). The price of substitutes A substitute is a viable good or service that may be used instead of the product in question. Remember that one of the reasons for the downward sloping demand curve is that when the price increases, it is assumed that some customers will switch to cheaper alternatives. If a substitute becomes cheaper, and the price of the good we are analysing doesn’t change, then it is assumed that demand will fall for the original good, resulting in a shift of the demand curve to the left as consumers substitute into the relatively cheaper good. For example, in the market for televisions the two main substitutes are LCD/LED and Plasma. They are both capable of receiving digital broadcast signals and facilitate the use of DVD players, the internet and game consoles. If the price of LCD televisions increased, it would be reasonable to expect that some consumers would look for the cheapest alternative that meets their needs. This should result in a shift of the demand curve for Plasma televisions to the right. Similarly, in the market for compact discs (CDs), there are now a wide range of substitutes available that would account for the decrease in demand for CDs. Assuming that all consumers are honest and happy to pay for music, they could download the music legally from a site such as iTunes or subscribe to a music service such as Spotify or JB HiFi Now. Given that these services allow music consumers to access music at significantly reduced prices, it makes sense that fewer CDs will be demanded. The price of complements Complementary products are generally consumed together. Continuing with the LCD/LED/Plasma TV example, it would be reasonable to argue that a Blu-ray player is a complementary product to a big screen television. If the price of either type of TV increased, then it would be reasonable to expect a decrease in the demand for Blu-ray players, shifting the demand curve to the left as some consumers will be unable (or less willing) to purchase both. With respect to CDs, the price of CD players has probably had a minimal effect on the sales of CDs. As alternative listening devices such as mp3 players have become cheaper and are more convenient, it has meant that CD players are no longer sold in vast quantities. As a result, the producers of the CD players need to charge more for what is seen as a niche market because they cannot achieve economies of scale. The higher price for CD players would therefore be another reason why fewer CDs are demanded. 20 Chapter 2: The market mechanism Preferences and tastes Demand may be affected by an individual’s tastes, attitudes and preferences towards each good or service. A person who is fanatical about music may have a greater demand for CDs than someone who is tone deaf. A music connoisseur may prefer to buy physical copies of the music for collection purposes which may also affect the demand for compact discs, vinyl LPs and downloadable music. The recent (and somewhat surprising) resurgence of vinyl as a musical source has been driven by people who prefer analog recordings to the perceived coldness of digital audio. If a particular band tours Australia then music sales tend to increase. Consumers are exposed to the music of the performer and they may become more fashionable. Going to see a music concert can influence the way the consumer considers and appreciates the music. Advertising plays a big role in influencing consumer tastes. This is discussed at length in the section on price elasticity of demand (section 2.11). Population growth and demographic change A growing population will generally need more goods and services, so it is not surprising that the production of goods and services will usually increase every year. The structure of the population may also affect the range of goods and services that are sold in the market. An ageing population, for example, may mean that demand for certain products increase, such as healthcare and nursing homes. Some younger generations have grown up with the belief that music is free so they are less likely to sacrifice their income for this type of product. As a result, CD demand for this demographic (10- 25 year olds) may be significantly less than for older generations. Consumer sentiment (confidence) Consumer sentiment or consumer confidence is a measure of the general expectations about the future state of the economy. Consumers’ expectations may affect their marginal propensity to consume (which in turn affects their willingness to save) and their willingness to take on new debt. The marginal propensity to consume measures the change in consumption that would result from a one dollar increase in income. If consumers feel secure about their future employment opportunities, for example, they may be more willing to bring forward purchases and go into debt to purchase items. Therefore when consumer confidence is high the marginal propensity to consume might increase. This means that for every extra dollar consumers receive, they might wish to spend a greater amount of it. During periods of high confidence, households are more likely to take on debt as they feel secure with their ability to service the debt. This would particularly affect the purchase of discretionary items such as a new car or a holiday. Review questions 2.1 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Define a market and describe its role in allocating resources. Define what is meant by the law of demand. Distinguish a consumer surplus from a producer surplus. Explain, using sound economic reasoning, why the demand for chocolate bars is likely to contract as their price increases. Describe how an auction process highlights the law of demand. In your answer, distinguish the income effect from the substitution effect. Distinguish a movement along the demand curve from a shift of the demand curve. Explain the difference between a normal and an inferior good and give examples of each to illustrate your response. Explain what is meant by the term ‘disposable income’ and outline how an increase in disposable income will affect the position of the demand curve. Explain why indebted households are likely to be sensitive to changes in Australian interest rates and discuss how this will affect the position of the demand curve for a range of goods and services. Identify two goods that would be considered viable substitutes for one another. Explain how an increase in the price of one would affect the demand curve of the other. Identify two goods that would be considered complementary and discuss how an increase in the price of one would affect the demand curve of the other. Explain how a significant increase in the rate of population growth might affect the demand curve for a range of goods and services. Explain how a change in consumer sentiment can affect the marginal propensity to consume and the demand curve for a range of goods and services. Give specific examples. 21 Economic Fundamentals in Australia 2.5 The law of supply and the supply curve While a higher price may act as a deterrent to the consumer, it tends to act as an incentive for the supplier of a particular good or service. To the supplier, each unit sold represents an increase in their revenue. A higher price received for each product will also result in an increase in revenue received. Assume, for example, a farmer can use his or her land to grow a range of crops, but he or she has decided to focus on the production of strawberries. An increase in the price of strawberries in the market (which could be driven by a change in tastes and fashion in the market) would tend to encourage this farmer, and indeed all strawberry farmers, to increase the supply of strawberries in the market. They might be able to achieve this by using up more of their available land or by increasing productivity. They recognise more profits are likely to be made from strawberries than any alternative use of the land, therefore the opportunity cost of producing anything other than strawberries is higher. In addition, for some suppliers, a higher output level might be associated with higher per unit costs of production. When the scale of production increases beyond a certain point, the firm’s capital resources may become crowded at relatively high production levels, the production facility becomes stretched, bottlenecks start to appear and efficiency declines. As a consequence, production costs rise and higher prices are needed to justify higher production volumes. Law of Supply →→ As price rises, the quantity supplied increases →→ As prices falls, the quantity supplied decreases The law of supply makes sense because: • a higher price received for the product represents an increase in revenue for the supplier; • a higher price increases the opportunity cost of using resources to supply an alternative product; and • to increase production, the cost per unit might increase (i.e. the marginal cost might rise). It is therefore useful to think about supply in terms of what prices will be required to encourage producers to supply the market a given quantity. There are a range of factors that affect the quantity supplied in any market but it is assumed that these are held constant (ceteris paribus) for each different price level when the supply curve is constructed. Consider the following information about the market for CDs. Table 2.3 shows the number of CDs that would be supplied at any given price. It is clear that the supply for CDs follows the law of supply. Lower prices decrease the quantity supplied. When price increases from $5 to $10, supply expands from zero per week to 20,000 per week. Like the demand curve the supply curve can be represented in a two-dimensional diagram with price on the vertical axis and quantity supplied on the horizontal axis. This is represented on the supply curve in figure 2.3. Figure 2.3 Table 2.3 - Supply of compact discs Price (AUD) Quantity supplied per week 5.00 0 10.00 20,000 15.00 40,000 20.00 60,000 25.00 80,000 30.00 100,000 Supply of compact discs per week Price($) 35 Supply 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Quantity (000) When the price of a product changes, there will be a movement along the supply curve. When prices increase, supply generally expands (moves along the supply curve to the right). This can be seen when the price increases from $10 to $15. The supply will expand from 20,000 to 40,000. When prices fall, supply usually contracts (moves along the supply curve to the left). 22 Chapter 2: The market mechanism 2.6 Microeconomic supply side factors that influence prices and quantity There are a range of factors that will cause the supply curve to shift. When the supply curve is constructed, it is assumed that each of these supply factors (other than price) is held constant. Whenever one or more of them change, the position of the supply curve will change. Study tip: Remember that when demand or supply increases, the respective curves shift right, and when they decrease, the curves shift left. Avoid talking about moving the curves up or down . If the supply curve shifts right this means that for each given price, there is a greater quantity supplied. A change in a factor of supply will cause a shift in the supply curve. If a supply factor causes supply to increase, the supply curve will shift to the right. If a supply factor causes supply to decrease the supply curve will shift to the left. Some of the more significant factors that affect the supply for goods and services include the prices of factors of production, profit margins, prices of other products, technological change, productivity and climatic conditions. Each of these will be examined below. Study tip: When trying to conceptualise the impact of a shift to the left of the supply curve, it can be useful to assume that quantities remain unchanged and then ask the following question. What price does the supplier now need to charge to justify supplying that particular quantity? The price needs to be higher at every quantity level or else the supplier will no longer be willing to supply. Consequently, this causes the whole supply line to shift left. The prices of the factors of production Each good and service that is produced in the economy requires resources, which are often referred to as the factors of production (land, labour and capital). The position of a firm’s supply curve will depend on the costs involved in making a good or service as this will influence the price they are willing to accept in return for the good. Referring back to the market for compact discs, there are a number of resources that are needed to put together an album which can be released for purchase. The artist may need to record the music in a studio which runs on electricity. The cost of hiring the studio would therefore increase if the price of electricity increased. Similarly, if the price of oil increased then each CD would cost more to make and transport. The record company may then need to increase the price they charge the retailer, which would represent an increase in their cost of production (stock). As a result, the supply will decrease at each given price, which is represented by a shift to the left of the supply curve. In other words, the higher costs of production reduce the willingness and/or ability of the retailer to supply at a given price. Refer to Box 2.1 for further information about the common costs that can affect the supply curve of most businesses. Box 2.1 Common costs of production The common costs of production faced by businesses include the following: • Wages/Salaries and other on-costs such as superannuation and Workcover premiums • Rent and property expenses • Interest on loans and overdraft facilities • Utility bills such as electricity, water and gas • Delivery costs • The cost of technology • The rate of depreciation of assets • The cost of raw materials used in the production process • Financial and insurance services • The level of government assistance or taxes and charges 23 Economic Fundamentals in Australia Profit margins This is really a subset of ‘the price of factors of production’ outlined above. Every good or service that is produced must charge a price that is high enough to cover all of the costs of production, as well as provide a return to cover the risk associated with operating a business. In other words, the owner(s) will require a portion of the price of the product to return to them in the form of profit, where this must be at least enough to justify the owner(s)’ continued investment in the business. In economics, this is sometimes referred to as a ‘normal profit.’ The profit margin is loosely defined as the difference between total sales revenue and total expenses. Most businesses will seek to maximise this difference but are constrained by many factors, most significantly, the degree of competition in the market for their particular product. When a supplier seeks to lift the profit margin, this effectively results in the supply curve moving to the left, causing price to rise and the quantity sold to fall. Whether this strategy works to lift total revenue, and/or profits, ultimately depends on the price elasticity of demand for their product (see section 2.10). Prices of other products The price of other products can be an important factor determining the willingness to supply and the position of the supply curve. This stems from the fact that our factors of production (or resources) have many alternative uses and the use of these resources in any productive activity involves opportunity costs. When there is an increase in the price of other products, it effectively results in an increase in the opportunity costs, and pushes the supply curve to the left. To illustrate, assume that the CD producer uses a small studio to manufacture the product and the owner devotes 40 hours of his labour to the business per week. Then he notices that the prices for artwork are soaring to high levels. Assume further that he has an interest in art and his studio could easily be converted into an art gallery. As the price of art continues to rise, the opportunity costs of staying in his current CD producing activity also climb. Accordingly, he may exit the CD market to concentrate on artwork, thereby resulting in a decrease in supply of CDs. This therefore represents a change in the allocation of resources, which will be discussed in section 2.9. In some cases, goods are complements in production and the increase in price of one of those goods might result in an increase in the supply of another. For example, when the demand for beef products increased due to an increase in tastes and fashion, farmers naturally responded to the higher prices available in the market by increasing supply. This also resulted in an increase in the supply of leather to the market which is made from the skins of the cows. Notice how the increase in supply of leather was not the result of an increase in the price of leather itself, but the price of beef products. Technological change and productivity growth New technology will generally increase the productivity of existing resources. This means that a greater volume of goods and services may be produced from any given quantity of land, labour and capital. If the price of these resources remains constant, this should result in a decrease in the cost per unit. Higher levels of productivity would allow the supplier to supply more at a given price. Computer technology has significantly reduced the costs associated with recording music. Many artists no longer need to hire a professional studio as there are programs that can improve the sound quality of a recording for little monetary investment. This has meant that the cost of making music has significantly decreased and may have helped to increase the supply of CDs in the market. The supply of music may have been further enhanced by the ability to buy and sell digital files which are a much cheaper way of providing music to the public. Climatic conditions and other disruptions Most goods and services rely upon nature for the provision of the raw materials either directly or indirectly. Some agricultural products are heavily dependent upon favourable climatic conditions. Until relatively recently, droughts experienced across Australia decreased the productive capabilities of many farmers as they were lacking an essential resource - water. This, for example, decreased the supply of wheat available in the market. If wheat is used to produce bread and cereal then the manufacturers of these products faced higher production costs which also shifted their supply curves to the left. Furthermore, the Australian economy has been subjected to erratic weather patterns that might be linked to climate change. In 2011, many regions of eastern Australia were flooded. If a CD manufacturing plant was in Brisbane, for example, then its ability to supply CDs to the market would have been severely hampered. The facility may have been destroyed by floods and the business might not have been physically able to supply the market. Disruptions to supply could also be caused by human action. For example, wars and acts of terrorism could result in the destruction of infrastructure or labour and other resources may be lost in these situations. 24 Chapter 2: The market mechanism Review questions 2.2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Define what is meant by the law of supply. Explain, using sound economic reasoning why supply is likely to expand as the price of chocolate bars increase. Distinguish a movement along the supply curve from a shift of the supply curve. Explain how an increase in the cost of production for firms will affect the position of the supply curve. Explain how an increase in the price of strawberries will affect the supply curve for raspberries, assuming that they can be grown on the same type of land. 6. Explain how an increase in annual rainfall may affect the supply curve for wheat. 7. Discuss how the introduction of the National Broadband Network may affect the willingness and ability of firms to supply a range of new services. 8. Discuss why a shift of the demand curve will not necessarily result in a shift of the supply curve. 2.7 Market equilibrium Up until this stage, demand and supply have been considered in isolation. In reality, buyers and sellers interact in the market to determine the selling price and quantity traded of a certain good or service. There will be one price at a moment in time, that satisfies the buyers and sellers, and the price at which the quantity demanded is equal to the quantity supplied is called the equilibrium price. At this price, an efficient outcome has been achieved, because all that has been supplied to the market has been purchased. Study tip: The market is generally seen as the best way to achieve the market clearing price. If prices are determined by a central body, which is unresponsive to the desires of consumers, then shortages and surpluses can develop. If the government, for example, set a price floor (a minimum price) for a certain product and consumers no longer desired the product, a surplus would be created and equilibrium would not be achieved. In Table 2.4, the demand and supply for compact discs is reproduced in one table. The table also shows disequilibrium, where the price is either above or below the market clearing level, resulting in either a surplus or a shortage of CDs in the market. Table 2.4 – Compact discs – demand and supply Price (AUD) Quantity demanded (CDs per week) Quantity supplied (CDs per week) Surplus (+) or shortage (-) Quantity traded 5.00 120,000 0 -120,000 0 10.00 100,00 20,000 -80,000 20,000 15.00 80,000 40,000 -40,000 40,000 20.00 60,000 60,000 0 60,000 25.00 40,000 80,000 +40,000 40,000 30.00 20,000 100,000 +80,000 20,000 The market will have a natural tendency to move towards equilibrium. When the market price is set below the equilibrium price, such as $10.00 there will be a shortage of 80,000 CDs per week. The price may be set at this level because the suppliers have entered a new market and are trying to ascertain buyer response. It will soon become evident to the supplier that the price they are charging is too low because they will run out of stock relatively quickly (resulting in a shortage). The supplier is then likely to take advantage of this by raising the price in order to maximise profits. In some markets the buyers may actually try to outbid each other to obtain the scarce products. With a higher price, some buyers will decide to leave the market because they are no longer willing or able to purchase the CDs. The higher price will also act as an incentive for the suppliers to make more CDs available to the market. This will be represented by movements along the demand and supply curves (demand contracts while supply expands). This price will therefore continue to increase until the shortage is eliminated and the quantity demanded is equal to quantity supplied. If the price is initially set above the equilibrium, the market will also move naturally towards its equilibrium. If, for example, the price was initially set at $30.00 then the suppliers would notice that they are not generating enough sales. Compact Discs may have been recorded by a number of artists, but due to the high prices, many of them are not being purchased. This represents a surplus of 80,000 CDs, which should encourage suppliers to lower their selling price and entice new customers into the market. (This is often the motivation for stores who conduct regular sales to offload stock where prices were initially set too high.) When the price is lowered, however, it gives a clear signal to potential suppliers in the market that this product may not be profitable (or less profitable than it may have been). As a result, supply should contract and some manufacturers or retailers will decide to allocate their scarce resources 25 Economic Fundamentals in Australia to relatively more profitable areas. The price will continue to decrease until there is no reason for suppliers to alter it, which means that the market has reached a state of equilibrium. This analysis is highlighted in Figure 2.4. Figure 2.4 Demand and supply for compact discs per week Excess supply (surplus) of 80,000 CDs and price falls until the surplus is eliminated Price($) 35 Supply 30 25 20 Equilibrium price 15 10 Demand 5 10 Excess demand (shortage) of 80,000 CDs and price rises until the shortage is eliminated 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20 100 110 120 Quantity (000) Equilibrium quantity 2.8 The effects of changes in supply and demand on equilibrium prices and quantities traded As noted in sections 2.4 and 2.6, the factors of demand and/or supply can change at any point in time. For example, an increase in the price of a substitute will generally result in an increase in demand for the cheaper product. This would be represented by a shift of the demand curve to the right for these products which may result in a new set of equilibrium prices and quantities traded. Consider the following simple cases outlined below: Changes in demand while supply remains constant Suppose demand increases for CDs because the government manages to close down all illegal file sharing websites, such as Limewire. The demand curve would shift to the right due to decreased availability of a viable and cheaper substitute. This indicates that there is an increase in demand for CDs at all possible prices. This is shown in the diagram to the left in Figure 2.5 below. The market price will tend to increase as the new equilibrium is at a point which is higher on both axes. The supply will expand because the higher demand initially causes a shortage. When there is a shortage, the price will increase, thereby encouraging an expansion in supply. The end result is a higher equilibrium price and quantity traded. Figure 2.5 Higher demand: a shift of the demand curve to the right Price Lower demand: a shift of the demand curve to the left Price S S P2 Shortage P1 Shortage Q1 Q2 I I I I I I I I I I I P1 D2 D1 Quantity A shortage is created at the old price (P1) and price will continue to increase until the shortage is eliminated at P2 26 P3 I I I I I I I I I I I Surplus D1 Surplus Q2 Q1 D2 A surplus is created at the old price (P1) and price will continue to decrease until the surplus is eliminated at P3 Quantity Chapter 2: The market mechanism Similarly, a decrease in demand for compact discs, which may be caused by a decrease in consumer sentiment, (consumers may delay the purchase of discretionary items) will result in a shift in the demand curve. This is shown in the diagram to the right in Figure 2.5 on the previous page. At each given price fewer compact discs will be demanded which is represented by a shift of the demand curve to the left. This will initially create a surplus in the market and sellers will most likely conduct a sale and lower their prices. In doing so the surplus may be removed and some suppliers will realise that the profitability of this market has fallen so will contract their supply (and some may leave the market altogether). The new equilibrium price is therefore lower and the quantity traded also falls. Changes in supply while demand remains constant If supply increases, due to technological advancements for example, this will result in an increase in the quantity supplied at each price level. This will be represented by a shift of the supply curve to the right. This is shown in the diagram to the left in Figure 2.6 below. The shift to the right will generally result in a surplus of stock available in the market. Prices will fall and this will encourage new consumers to enter the market. Therefore demand expands and a new lower equilibrium price is achieved with a greater quantity traded. Figure 2.6 Higher supply: a shift of the supply curve to the right Price Lower supply: a shift of the supply curve to the left Price S2 S1 S1 S2 P2 Surplus P1 P1 Shortage P3 D D Shortage Surplus Q1 Q2 Quantity A surplus is created at the old price (P1) and price will continue to decrease until the surplus is eliminated at P3 Q2 Q1 Quantity A shortage is created at the old price (P1) and price will continue to increase until the shortage is eliminated at P2 Conversely a decrease in supply will result in a decrease in the quantity traded and a higher equilibrium price. This is shown in the diagram to the right in Figure 2.6. An increase in the cost of oil, for example, will have an impact on most goods and services consumed. The oil is used as an input in the production of compact discs as well as the transportation of the final product to the retail outlet. Therefore less will be supplied at each price and the supply curve will shift to the left. The shortage that is created results in prices being bid up and some consumers will therefore leave the market as they are no longer willing and/or able to purchase the product. These dynamics are summarised in Table 2.5. Table 2.5 Change in demand Change in supply Impact on market Increase Unchanged P increase, Q increase Decrease Unchanged P decrease, Q decrease Unchanged Increase P decrease, Q increase Unchanged Decrease P increase, Q decrease There are four more complicated scenarios. Sometimes the factors of demand and supply can both change (or a factor can affect both curves such as interest rates). If, for example, interest rates are lowered across the economy then both curves are likely to shift. The lower interest rates will mean that indebted households will have more discretionary income to spend on a range of goods and services (such as CDs). This would shift the demand curve to the right. At the same time the lower interest rates will tend to reduce the cost of production for firms who operate with some level of debt. Their supply curve will therefore shift to the right. When the demand curve and the supply curve both shift to the right this is more than likely to lead to an increase in the quantity traded. It may at first glance seem impossible to determine what impact this will have on the prices of CDs. Further knowledge of the consumers 27 Economic Fundamentals in Australia and suppliers is needed to make a meaningful prediction. The price change will depend upon whether changes in interest rates will have a bigger effect on consumers or producers. Given that many producers may not be operating with debt and producers are unlikely to pass on any savings in a climate of higher demand, it is more than likely that the prices for CDs will increase. This may also depend on other factors such as the level of confidence in the economy, the degree of spare capacity and the price and income elasticity of demand. The four more complicated scenarios summarised in Table 2.6 below indicate that there will always be one of the two parameters which is difficult to determine (either price or quantity) and further knowledge of the individual market will be required to reach a conclusion. A summary of the more complicated scenarios appears in Table 2.6 Table 2.6 Change in demand Change in supply Impact on market Increases Decreases P increase, Q ? Decrease Decreases P ?, Q decrease Increase Increase P ?, Q increase Decrease Increases P decrease, Q ? Case Study/Analysis task 2.1: The changing value of the dollar and the impact on demand and supply curves. When the Australian dollar changes in value it can potentially affect the demand and the supply curves for some products. Consider the market for Australian-made motor vehicles. Each of the car manufacturers who have operated factories in Australia have chosen to cease their operations in Australia after making on-going losses. One factor that has affected both the demand and supply for Australian made cars is the value of the Australian dollar. This is a factor that is very much out of the control of the manufacturers themselves. So how does it affect the demand and supply curves for Australian-made motor vehicles? The demand curve is affected via the price of substitutes. For the three years between 2010 and 2013 the Australian dollar appreciated rapidly and hit historically very high levels (in terms of a number of currencies). It had not been this high for more than 30 years. This meant that the relative price of imported cars fell as dealerships in Australia were able to lower their costs of production. [Their costs of production fell because, for Australian car dealers selling imported cars, one of their ‘input costs’ is the wholesale cost of the imported cars themselves.] The price-conscious consumer would therefore have a greater incentive to substitute away from the Australian-made car and purchase an imported one instead. This is represented by a shift to the left of the demand curve for Australian-made cars. The high dollar also affected the supply curve for Australian-made cars. Whilst the cars were assembled in Australia, many of the parts were made in foreign countries. The cost of imported inputs would therefore be lower because less Australian dollars would be needed for each unit of foreign currency. As the cost of production fell (holding all else constant), this factor would shift the supply curve to the right. When the demand curve shifts to the left and the supply curve shifts to the right, the equilibrium price should fall. But what happens to the quantity traded? In the case of Australian-made cars the demand side effect outweighed the supply-side effect and fewer cars were sold. Application questions 1. Using a fully-labelled demand and supply diagram, illustrate how the appreciation of the AUD in recent years affected the market for Australian-made vehicles. 2. Explain, with the aid of an appropriate diagram, how the high value of the dollar may have affected the market for imported cars in Australia. 3. Identify and explain one other demand factor that may have led to the decrease in demand for Australian-made cars. 4. Explain how the high Australian dollar may have affected Australian car-parts manufacturers. 5. Identify and explain one other supply factor that may have reduced the competitiveness of Australian car manufacturers. 28 Chapter 2: The market mechanism Case Study/Analysis task 2.2: Movie Theatres Have you ever sat in a half empty movie theatre? This could be an indication that the market has the price wrong. With the increasing incidence of illegal downloading and cheap DVDs and Blu-rays on sale, paying $15 to $20 to sit in the dark might be a little too much for some customers. This creates a surplus in the market for movie tickets at cinemas (which may or may not be temporary). Even though there are peak times for cinema-goers (such as Friday and Saturday nights), there doesn’t seem to be much change in the prices that the cinema charges. They also charge the same price for a popular film as one that has been given one star by reviewers. If the cinema was looking like it was going to be empty, it would be very difficult for the cinema manager to lower ticket prices on a particular day. If management did choose to lower the price, then consumers might delay their purchases of movie tickets in future to wait for a possible price decrease. Over time, if cinemas continued to be empty the operators would have to reflect upon their pricing decisions and the price may be decreased. Application questions 1. Illustrate, using a demand and supply diagram, how a price of $20 per ticket may lead to an empty movie theatre. 2. Explain why the cinema operators are unable to offer movie tickets at a lower price when there is an unexpected decrease in demand. 3. Identify and explain two demand side factors that could lead to an increase in the demand for movie tickets. 4. Identify and explain two supply side factors that could lead to an increase in the supply of movies. 5. Explain one strategy that the cinema operators could implement that might help to curb the decline in demand caused by online piracy. 29 Economic Fundamentals in Australia 2.9 Resource allocation and the role of relative prices Resource allocation is the study of how resources such as land, labour and capital are used to produce goods and services to meet the needs of households, businesses, governments and other economic agents. Economists are interested in ‘What’ goods are produced. Therefore they want to know where the resources are being directed in terms of production. Is the country using its labour resources to produce mineral exports or to manufacture shoes? Economists may also be interested in ‘How’ resources are being used in the production process. Generally speaking, firms with a profit incentive will try to minimise their costs of production. This may mean that they seek the most efficient way to convert their land, labour and capital into the end product. Finally, economists will look at how the products that are made are ultimately distributed in the economy - in other words, ‘Who’ gets to enjoy the goods and services that are produced. In a market capitalist economy, markets will typically allocate resources to those who are willing and able to pay. Study tip: It is possible to make links between seemingly unrelated markets if one is prepared to investigate far enough. For example , any change in one market will affect labour and other factor markets for substitutes and complements as well as financial markets. Markets are able to reveal information about consumer preferences which helps to direct the allocation of resources. The ability to make free choices shows producers what consumers value, their priorities and preferences. Ultimately, the value of any good or service is determined by the buyer’s willingness to pay relative to its availability. The price is therefore used to ration the scarce goods and services to the point where the market will allocate resources to the highest end-use. The market will typically lead to the most efficient allocation of resources in the sense that resources are allocated to the production of those goods and services most satisfying the needs and wants of society. However, markets do sometimes fail, and this will be explored in Chapter 3. Across the economy there will be a set of prices for every good or service that is offered for sale. Economists are not only interested in the price of individual goods and services but also relative prices. The relative price is seen as the price of any one good or service measured in terms of the price of another good or service. This usually involves dividing the price of one good by the price of another. It is therefore a measure of opportunity cost (which was discussed in Chapter 1) as the relative price of one good can be expressed in terms of what is given up to obtain the other. For example, if the price of a CD is $20 and the price of a download album is $10, then the relative price is $20/$10 = 2:1. This means that for every CD you purchase you forego the opportunity to purchase two download albums. If the price of a CD increased to $25 then the relative price would be 2.5:1 meaning the consumer would now be giving up the opportunity to purchase 2.5 download albums for each CD purchased. Changes in these relative prices will therefore alter the incentives of producers and consumers and will result in an alteration to the goods and services that are produced and consumed in the country. With respect to the question of what to produce, an economy that relies on the market mechanism will allocate resources to those goods that are in high demand. When the relative price of a good or service increases due to an increase in demand (and/ or a decrease in supply) this sends a clear signal to economic agents. A supplier may see the price movements and decide that it is now more profitable to use their resources to produce that good or service. Consumers are therefore said to be the main driver of resource allocation in the market based economy. For example, if there was an increase in the price of petrol then people may look for cheaper forms of transport such as scooters (because they use less fuel). This will result in an increase in the demand for scooters (the demand curve shifts right) and this would create a shortage of scooters at the existing price. The shortage will encourage some potential buyers to bid up the price and existing suppliers will take the opportunity to raise the price. The price of scooters has now risen relative to other forms of transport (such as cars), which indicates that this is an area of production providing greater profit opportunities. Producers will therefore decide to allocate more land, labour and capital to the production of scooters. The introduction of the carbon tax from July 2012 (albeit for a brief period) also influenced the structure of relative prices. The carbon tax was imposed on country’s largest carbon emitters (approximately 260 companies) and it resulted in an increase in the price of carbon intensive products, such as electricity produced at coal-fired power stations. The price of coal-fired electricity increased relative to the price of installing solar panels, which then raised the demand for solar panels (shifting the demand curve to the right) and resulted in a higher equilibrium price for solar panels. As a result, producers noticed the higher ‘relative price’ of solar panels (compared to other goods that they might wish to produce), and allocated more resources to the production of solar panels. The 30 Chapter 2: The market mechanism higher price of electricity generated from coal led to a contraction along the demand curve for coal generated electricity and less coal resources were ultimately utilised within Australia to make electricity. Interestingly, a carbon tax (or carbon pricing more generally) both increases and decreases the relative price of solar panels, providing important signals to economic agents and helping to explain why and how resources are allocated in response to price signals. First, the relative price of solar panels will fall when compared to coal-fired electricity, encouraging demand to move away from this form of energy production and toward less carbon intensive forms of energy production. Resources will therefore shift out of the production of coal-fired electricity. Second, the relative price of solar panels will rise when compared to other products, resulting in more resources flowing to the production of solar panels. The price mechanism describes how the forces of demand and supply determine relative prices of goods and services, which then ultimately determine the way our productive resources (e.g. labour and capital) are allocated in the economy. The price mechanism will also influence the second fundamental economic question of how to produce the good or service. Generally speaking, a business will seek to maximise its profits by minimising its costs and selling the good or service at the highest price possible. The competitive market will ensure that resources are used as efficiently as possible so that producers can offer their product at the most attractive price to the consumer. Therefore when the price of one resource increases relative to the price of another, this may influence firms to change the way they produce their goods and services (and in the process alter the allocation of resources). For example, if unions are successful in raising wages of unskilled labour, this increases the price of labour, relative to capital, and may cause some substitution out of labour and into capital. The relatively high price of labour (when compared to capital) offered to unskilled labour in Australia, may have encouraged the supermarket industry to implement self-serve checkouts which decreases the need to hire as many workers. Similarly, the price mechanism will effectively allocate resources within factor markets themselves, with changes in the relative prices for factor inputs sending clear signals to the owners of these resources about how best to use their resources in production. For example, in labour markets, the shortage of engineers over recent years has resulted in a higher price (i.e. the wage or remuneration) for engineers relative to the price for other professions, which has sent a signal to people, such as university entrants, that a career as an engineer is relatively more lucrative. This is likely to lead to greater allocation of labour resources to this particular section of the labour market. In other words, there will be greater supply of engineers to this market as the price (or wage) of engineers has increased relative to the price offered in other professions. Again, the price mechanism has facilitated this movement of (labour) resources from one activity to another. a The third fundamental question of for whom to produce is determined by the potential consumers’ willingness and ability to pay. Resources will end up being allocated to the production of goods and services that are demanded by the consumers but some consumers will be able to demand a lot more goods and services than others. More land, labour and capital may therefore be devoted towards the material needs of the high income earners in our society because they can afford to purchase more goods and services. Therefore, the relative wages of different professions will ultimately influence who gets to consume the resources available in a country (or the world at large). Generally speaking, those goods and services that are profitable to produce in a competitive market will be produced and those that involve making a loss will not. However, governments will intervene to ensure that efficient outcomes are achieved when the market is unable to do so and to reallocate resources when equity is not achieved. Some of these instances are investigated in Chapter 3. Review questions 2.3 1. 2. 3. 4. Define what is meant by the term equilibrium. Explain how the market for haircuts would return to equilibrium if the price was initially set above the equilibrium. Explain how the market for haircuts would return to equilibrium if the price was initially set below the equilibrium. Explain how the market will answer the fundamental economic question of “what to produce”. Make reference to the role of relative prices in your response. 5. Explain how goods and services are likely to be produced in a competitive market. Make reference to the role of relative prices in your response. 6. Explain how the price mechanism will cause a reallocation of labour resources in the event that there is a shortage of engineers. 7. Explain why reliance on the price mechanism will often result in an unequal distribution of the products that are made in a country. 31 Economic Fundamentals in Australia Case Study/Analysis Task 2.3: The price mechanism at work Quinoa – the superfood Not so long ago, quinoa was an ancient grain that no one knew how to pronounce (it is kin wa) but the increasing interest in healthy eating and preventative medicine has meant that it has become in high demand around the world. The grain is unique in that it has a high protein content (with essential amino acids) which can be used to replace meat in the diet. The rapid increase in demand has, not surprisingly, led to a significant increase in prices as world supply has been unable to keep with demand. In some cases, the original consumers of the quinoa, Bolivians, have been unable to afford the grain. But the change in demand has had some interesting impacts on the allocation of resources. Quinoa consumption in the countries where it was originally produced (in the Andes Mountains of South America) has fallen as its relative price has increased. Families have chosen to consume more pasta and rice as a result and in some countries, quinoa is more expensive than chicken. Consumers have responded to price incentives and altered their consumption levels accordingly. The higher prices for Quinoa have had some positive effects in Bolivia. Farmers can now afford to send their teenagers to school and they are able to earn the income sufficient to buy a wider range of fruit and vegetables at the market. The increased revenue for the country has enabled the building of better roads, and houses that were once free of electricity now have access to this vital form of energy. The income earned by the farmers has encouraged many young people to consider staying on the land because they can now earn a decent living (they are choosing to reallocate their labour resource). The popularity and higher prices received for quinoa has encouraged agricultural entrepreneurs in Australia to reallocate their scarce land resources to its production. The crops, planted in Tasmania, have been successful and this may encourage other farmers to produce the grain in the future. Application questions 1. Explain, with the aid of a demand and supply diagram, how the market for quinoa has changed in the last 10 years. 2. Explain why the increase in demand led to a shortage in the world market for quinoa. 3. Analyse how the higher relative price of quinoa may have affected the decision making of Australian farmers. 4. Identify and explain one potential cost associated with the increased popularity of quinoa in developed nations. 5. Explain why the increase in the price of quinoa might lead to an increase in the use of electricity in Bolivia. 6. Identify and explain one reason from the case study why the allocation of resources to rice might increase in some countries but decrease in others. 32 Chapter 2: The market mechanism Case Study/Analysis task 2.4: The structure of relative prices – the story of alcohol, drugs and (seemingly free) rock ‘n’ roll This case study highlights how changes in relative prices influences the choices made by consumers and businesses. A recent report entitled Australian Trends in Ecstasy and Related Drug Markets 2010 highlighted the growing number of young people using illicit drugs such as ecstasy. Could this increase in drug use be the result of illegal downloading and well-meaning governments? An analysis of markets may help uncover the truth by looking at the structure of relative prices and resource allocation. In recent years both Federal and State Governments have sought to reduce the damage caused by alcohol consumption. Some of the damage included the negative health effects of binge drinking and alcohol-related violence. One of the most publicised policy initiatives to tackle the problems was the introduction of the so-called “Alco-pops tax” which targeted pre-mixed alcoholic drinks. In addition there was a tightening of liquor licensing rules which effectively increased the cost of operating a nightclub or music venue. This is one contributing factor to the increasing cost of alcohol at entertainment venues. Over the last 10 years there has been an increase in the incidence of “file sharing” which has resulted in a significant decrease in the revenues received by recording artists. One way that the recorded music industry has sought to recoup some of these losses is to increase the fees that are payable by the venues that play their music. This also increases the cost of production and is one factor that has contributed to an approximate increase in the price of alcohol at bars of between 20 to 25%. This is far in excess of the rate of inflation over the same period. Some nightclubs, not surprisingly, reported a decrease in alcohol sales by up to 30%. The price of concert tickets also increased because artists may have been seeking ways to recuperate the lost revenue from illegal downloading and file sharing. In response to the growth in demand for ecstacy, the Government, through its relevant drug education authorities, undertook an extensive education program. The program influenced tastes and fashion and the demand for the drug decreased. Unfortunately, the National Drug Strategy Household Survey Report found that consumption of cocaine, especially by women, had increased. The report suggested that it had become more widely available and that the high value of the Australian dollar had made it cheaper to acquire. Given the highly addictive nature of cocaine, the price elasticity of demand for the product might be quite low, and this can encourage some users to resort to crime to support their habit. The change in the structure of relative prices may be having consequences that the Government did not foresee. The relative prices of alcohol and illicit drugs have moved in an opposite direction. It may have also resulted in an increase in the instance of “preloading” where people drink a large amount of (cheaper) liquor before they go out. Unfortunately, the government’s efforts to curb one problem may therefore have contributed to the increase in the consumption of an illegal drug whose effects are yet to be fully realised and where the product’s ingredients cannot be guaranteed. The consumption of alcohol and drugs is associated with market failures and negative exernalities, which will be discussed in Chapter 3. As a consequence, governments are likely to continue investigating ways to reduce consumption of these substances. Application questions 1. Identify and explain two microeconomic demand factors that have increased in the cost of supplying alcohol at nightclubs and entertainment complexes broadcasting pre-recorded music. 2. Explain why the increased incidence of illegal downloading has resulted in a change to the structure of relative prices in the pre-recorded music industry. Explain how these price changes have influenced the price of alcohol sold in entertainment venues. 3. Explain how an increase in the price of alcohol sold at entertainment venues has influenced the allocation of resources in the alcohol industry. 4. Explain how government interference in the alcohol market has affected: • relative prices • the consumption of ecstacy • the allocation of resources 5. Discuss how the legalisation of ecstacy consumption is likely to impact on the markets for both alcohol and ecstacy. 33 Economic Fundamentals in Australia 2.10 The meaning and significance of price elasticity of demand The demand curve shows the relationship between various possible prices of a particular product and the quantities that buyers are willing and able to purchase at each of these prices. The law of demand suggests that consumers will respond to a lowering of price by purchasing more of the good or service in question. Economists are also interested in how much demand will change when a factor affecting demand changes. In particular, the price elasticity of demand measures the responsiveness of changes in the quantity demanded to changes in price. A small percentage decrease in the price of a product could result in a large percentage increase in the quantity demanded, meaning that the good or service has a high price elasticity of demand. Price Elasticity of Demand (PED) is measured by the following formula: PED = percentage change in quantity demanded percentage change in price The value for PED can be broken into three distinct categories: High PED (elastic) The product will have a high PED if the absolute value is greater than 1. In this situation the percentage change in quantity demanded will be greater than the percentage change in price. This will mean that if a supplier lowers their price they are likely to attract a bigger percentage increase in demand. If they increase the price however they will lose a much bigger percentage in quantity demanded. A demand curve where the PED is high would be one that is relatively flat (See Figure 2.7). Study tip: When the PED is calculated it will result in a negative value. This negative is generally ignored when examining data related to the PED. Low PED (inelastic) The product will have a low PED if the value is less than 1. In this situation the percentage change in quantity demand will be less than the percentage change in price. This will mean that if the supplier lowers their price they are likely to attract a smaller percentage increase in the quantity demanded. An increase in price however will result in a smaller percentage loss in quantity demanded. A demand curve where the PED is low would be one that is relatively steep. (See Figure 2.7) Box 2.2 Elasticity and Pricing One way of telling whether a product has a high or low price elasticity of demand (PED) is to look at what happens to the total revenue that results from a price change. If a price increase results in an increase in total revenue then the product will have a low PED (that is less than 1). This is because the percentage increase in price will outweigh the percentage that is lost in quantity demanded. A good with a high PED will be one where a decrease in price will result in an increase in revenue. The response of demand will outweigh the decreased price resulting in greater revenue. Generally speaking, the greater the degree of competition in markets, the higher the PED, whereas in less competitive markets, such as an oligopolistic market (for example, banking in Australia) the PED is lower. Market structures and competition will be explored more fully in Chapter 3. Medium PED (unit elastic) In some cases the percentage change in quantity demanded and price may be equal. This is called unit elasticity because the elasticity value will be exactly 1. If a product has a low PED it does not generally mean that consumer demand is completely unresponsive to changes in price. A perfectly inelastic demand curve, however, would be vertical as demand in this situation would be completely unresponsive to changes in price. A perfectly elastic demand curve would be horizontal as the smallest percentage increase in prices would result in a complete loss of sales. 34 Chapter 2: The market mechanism Figure 2.7 High price elasticity of demand Unit price elasticity of demand Price Low price elasticity of demand Price Price Price D D Quantity Quantity D Quantity 2.11 Factors affecting price elasticity of demand The degree of necessity Goods and services that are deemed to be necessities will usually have a low PED, whereas luxury products will have a relatively higher PED. If the price of bread increased, for example, the quantity demanded would decrease, but by a smaller percentage, as bread is a staple item for most households. Similarly, if a person is a diabetic, they are unlikely to decrease their consumption of insulin if the price increases. Therefore, both products would have a low PED. Addiction can also turn a seemingly discretionary item into a good with a low price elasticity of demand. When a person is addicted to a product they may continue to buy it in large quantities (remember there will be some decrease) even if the price increases. This is one reason why the Federal Government is able to continually increase the excise tax on alcohol and cigarettes. The price for the product increases (due to a decrease in supply) but the decrease in sales is relatively small. The impact of rising alcohol prices is discussed in Case study/Analysis Task 2.4. Luxury goods on the other hand can be foregone more easily because, by definition, they are not necessities. If the price increases there is likely to be a greater percentage reduction in the quantity demanded. Availability of substitutes The greater the number of substitutes that are available for a product, the greater the PED. Consumers are likely to switch to a close substitute if the price rises. At a highly competitive fruit market, like the Victoria Market, the price elasticity of demand for each orange would be very high. If one stall holder increased their prices by a small percentage they may find that they lose a big percentage of sales. Consumers would be able to easily compare prices and there would be a multitude of suppliers who the consumer could turn to quickly and easily. This is also a key reason that insulin has a low PED, as there are no viable substitutes. Case Study/Analysis Task 2.5 analyses the role of advertising in influencing the viability of substitutes. Effective advertising will decrease the viability of competitors’ products and is designed to reduce the price elasticity of demand. Proportion of income The greater the percentage of income that is needed to purchase a good or service, the greater the PED. If the price of a box of matches increased by 50% for example, it would be surprising to see a decrease in sales by 50%. A 10% increase in the price of a new house, however, could amount to thousands of dollars which, for the average person, could be the deciding factor excluding them from the market, resulting in a larger than 10% drop in the quantity demanded. Time Many consumers have habitual buying behaviour. This sometimes means that they are less likely to notice price changes in the short term. Over time however, consumers may notice the price increase and experiment with alternative products. Consider the example of petrol. If the price of petrol rises then people may continue to purchase similar quantities. In time they may be able to make alternative travel arrangements, such as public transport or car pooling. In the long run they may actually choose a more fuel-efficient car or hybrid car so that their petrol consumption can decrease in line with higher prices. This means that, for many products, price elasticity of demand is more elastic in the longer term. 35 Economic Fundamentals in Australia Case Study/Analysis task 2.5: The role of advertising Firms often spend thousands to millions of dollars per year on advertising and other forms of marketing. In terms of demand analysis the aim is twofold. Advertising is designed to inform the consumer of the product and influence their tastes and preferences. A successful advertising campaign should result in an increase in the demand for the product at each given price level, thereby shifting the demand curve to the right. Advertising is also designed to increase brand loyalty. Successful advertising and marketing will enable consumers to associate a certain lifestyle or image with the product. If firms are able to successfully create a sense of brand loyalty, then this makes their competitors’ products less viable as alternatives. Therefore a successful advertising campaign can decrease the PED for their product. A lower PED for a product may allow the company to charge higher prices and gain an increase in revenue. This may help to explain why some designer or luxury brands are able to charge far more than what it costs to produce their product. Application questions 1. Outline two reasons why businesses spend millions of dollars on advertising, using a D/S diagram to illustrate. 2. Explain what is meant by brand loyalty and outline how advertising can generate brand loyalty. 3. Identify one other product (apart from Apple) where brand loyalty is likely to be high. 4. Discuss the possible relationship between an increase in advertising expenditure, brand loyalty and the PED. 5. Explain why it is considered to be profit maximising behaviour if a business raises the price on those products with a low PED. Case Study/Analysis task 2.6: Apple – using marketing to create a low PED Why is it that people will queue up when a new iPhone is released? The first iPhone was released in 2007. Since then, there have been 7 new iterations of essentially the same phone which have encouraged people to upgrade their phone (even when their previous phone was was still fully functional). How do the factors influencing PED influence the market for iPhones? Percentage of income: iPhones are certainly not cheap (often costing in excess of $700) but many purchasers are shielded from the large initial outlay by purchasing the phone on a plan (they effectively pay for it over 12 to 24 months and it has been partially subsidised by the telecommunications companies). Therefore in reality the relatively low percentage of income that is allocated to paying a phone plan may make some people less responsive to any potential price increase in the phone. Number of substitutes: Many people have developed brand loyalty towards the Apple iPhone. They do not view the competitors as viable substitutes, which allows Apple to charge a higher relative price for their products without losing a large percentage of their sales. Degree of necessity: In many cases a new phone may not be a necessity but this is where Apple’s marketing and development team have been very clever. They have been able to develop a sense of urgency (and sometimes hysteria) amongst potential buyers, creating the feeling that they just have to have the latest phone. Apple has also been accused of planned obsolescence because the phone may mysteriously become less functional at the end of the two year plan (which might necessitate its replacement). This often occurs when software upgrades don’t function properly on earlier models and battery life diminishes. Application questions 1. Define what is meant by the price elasticity of demand. 2. With reference to at least two of the three factors discussed, explain whether the price elasticity of demand for iPhones is likely to be high or low. 3. Research what is meant by planned obsolescence. Explain how planned obsolescence might affect the allocation of resources. 4. Identify one of Apple’s competitors in the mobile phone market. Explain why it might struggle to attract demand even if it were to lower the price of its product. 36 Chapter 2: The market mechanism 2.12 The meaning and significance of price elasticity of supply Price elasticity of supply (PES) looks at the responsiveness of changes in supply when prices change. The PES is the percentage change in the quantity supplied of a good divided by the percentage change in its price. PES = percentage change in quantity supplied/percentage change in price Supply curves with a high price elasticity and a low price elasticity are depicted in Figure 2.8. A product with a PES that is greater than one will have a relatively flat supply curve. This means that suppliers are willing and able to increase the supply by a bigger percentage than the price increase. If the PES is less than one, the supply curve will be relatively steep. This means that when prices increase by a certain percentage, suppliers are either unwilling and/or unable to increase supply by the same percentage. High price elasticity of supply Figure 2.8 Price Low price elasticity of supply Price S S Quantity Quantity 2.13 Factors affecting price elasticity of supply Production period If prices increase for a particular product this will give signals to suppliers that allocating resources into the area may now be more profitable. Firms may wish to increase their supply, but it will take time to shift resources from the production of other goods and services. If there is an increase in the demand for apricots, the demand curve will shift to the right, resulting in a higher price. The higher price will therefore act as an incentive for more apricots to be grown. Unfortunately they cannot be instantly produced and require growing and harvesting. As a result, the PES will be low in the short term but will increase over time as more resources can be shifted into their production. If, however, the apricots could be stored for long periods, then suppliers may be more responsive to price changes. Spare capacity If a firm has spare capacity then it is more likely to be able to respond to changing prices. There may be idle labour which can work more hours and machinery can be utilised to increase supply quickly. If the industry is running at capacity and there are skills shortages, making it hard to attract labour to expand operations, the PES will tend to be relatively low. Over a period of time the firm may be able to increase their productive capacity and attract new labour (the Government may assist in this manner by expanding immigrant numbers and training those who are structurally unemployed). Durability of goods If the goods can be stored, then it will be much easier to respond to changing prices. The supplier can simply access the inventory that has been stored. Many firms face higher costs from storage however, which may limit their ability to respond to more profitable price levels. Food products tend to have a low price elasticity of supply in the short run as they have a limited storage life. Canned products, such as softdrinks, however, may be stored for extended periods. Therefore, if there was a sudden increase in demand (which resulted in higher prices), the supplier could simply access any inventory that is available and reap the rewards. 37 Economic Fundamentals in Australia Review questions 2.4 1. Define what is meant by price elasticity of demand. 2. Explain whether the market for following products have a high or low price elasticity of demand. a) mobile phones b) mobile phones made by Samsung c) BMW motor vehicles d) apples 3. Explain three factors that might make the price elasticity of demand increase for a particular brand of chocolate bar. 4. Explain how an increase in advertising expenditure may impact on the price elasticity of demand. 5. Explain what is likely to happen to the total revenue for a business if the product it sells has a very low price elasticity of demand and it voluntarily restricts supply (or raises price). 6. Define what is meant by price elasticity of supply. 7. Outline three factors that would lead to an increase in the price elasticity of supply for newspapers. 8. Explain whether the following products would have a high or low price elasticity of supply: a) apples b) cinema tickets c) leather jackets d) Heineken Beer 9. Discuss how the price elasticity of supply of fruit and vegetables is likely to be affected by new technology that prolongs the shelf life of all fresh produce. Multiple choice review questions 1. Which of the following statements about the demand curve is incorrect? (a)The demand curve is generally downward sloping because many products lose their value when they are consumed excessively (b) The demand curve is generally downward sloping because at higher prices fewer people can afford the good or service (c)The demand curve is generally downward sloping because at higher prices substitutes become a more viable option (d)The demand curve is generally downward sloping because at lower prices the opportunity cost of buying the product has increased 2. The demand curve for Kleenex tissues is likely to shift to the right when: (a) There is an increase in supply of tissues (b) The cost of paper production decreases (c) There is an increase in the price of Sorbent Tissues (d) There is a shortage of tissues in the market 3. The demand for wind-generated electricity is likely to increase if: (a) The Government introduces a carbon pollution reduction scheme (b) More energy efficient appliances are developed (c) The cost of producing coal-generated electricity decreases (d) There is an increase in interest rates across the economy 4. The supply curve for haircuts is likely to shift to the right if: (a) There is an increase in the price of scissors (b) The Government provides subsidies for the hiring of apprentices (c) The rent increases for buildings across Australia (d) There is a new fashion where people choose to grow their hair long 5. Which of the following is a factor that is likely to shift the supply curve for prescription spectacles to the left? (a) An increase in competition from new suppliers (b) An increase in the price of oil (c) The ageing of the Australian population (d) The introduction of new technology which enables optometrists to make more spectacles per hour 6. There would be a movement along the demand curve to the right for lettuces grown in Australia if: (a) Drought conditions persist (b) Interest rates across Australia increase (c) Lettuces are shown to have anti-cancer properties (d) New production techniques are developed which increase the volume that can be produced each year 38 Chapter 2: The market mechanism 7. A ban on cigarette smoking indoors would affect the demand and supply curves for cigarettes in the following way: (a) The demand curve would shift left and the supply curve would shift right (b) The demand curve would shift left and the supply curve would not shift (c) The demand curve would shift right and the supply curve would shift left (d) The demand curve would shift right and the supply curve would not shift 8. An increase in the oil price is unlikely to lead to: (a) More resources being allocated to the production of bicycles (b) Less resources being devoted to the production of 4 Wheel Drive vehicles (c) Less resources being devoted to the production of airline travel (d) More resources being allocated to the production of plastic bottles 9. An increase in the wages paid to electricians may be the result of: (a) A decrease in demand for electricians due to a decrease in the number of new houses being built (b) A decrease in the number of electricians being trained at TAFE colleges (c) A decrease in the number of electrical faults reported by households (d) An increase in the supply of electricians as the government has subsidised apprenticeships 10. If a farmer can grow quinoa or chickpeas on her land, an increase in the market price for quinoa will result in (a) An increase in the demand for quinoa and chickpeas (b) A movement along the supply curve to the right for quinoa (c) A shift of demand curve for chickpeas to the left (d) A shift of the demand curve for quinoa to the left 11. Sales of Australian-made cars have fallen in recent years. This may have been caused by: (a) An appreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar (b) A decrease in the value of subsidies paid to car manufacturers by the Federal Government (c) An increase in fuel prices (d) All of the above 12. A factor that will cause a movement along the supply curve to the right for lemon cheesecake is: a) a cut in income taxes in July b) an increase in interest rates in November 2006 c) a decrease in the price of lemons d) the drought 13. The Government currently restricts the importation of bananas into Australia. A removal of this restriction would result in (a) an increase in the price for bananas as the demand would increase (b) an increase in the price for bananas as the supply would increase (c) a decrease in the price of bananas as the demand would decrease (d) a decrease in the price of bananas as the supply would increase 14. Which of the following goods is likely to be an inferior good? (a) A small car such as the Mini Cooper (b) A block of Lindt chocolate (c) A can of home brand baked beans (d) A newspaper 15. An increase in the wages paid to teachers would result in (a) An increase in the number of students attending private schools (b) An increase in the demand for whiteboard markers (c) A decrease in the number of students studying Mathematics (d) An increase in the cost of providing education across all sectors 16. The price elasticity of demand for chocolate is likely to increase if: (a) More addictive ingredients are added (b) A new competitor enters the chocolate market (c) There is an imposition of a new tax on chocolate (d) A news report indicates that chocolate has health giving properties 39 Economic Fundamentals in Australia 17. Consider a market with only two competing suppliers. If one supplier exits the market, allowing the remaining supplier to enjoy a low price elasticity of demand, then to maximise profit it makes sense to: (a) Increase the price (b) Decrease the price (c) Maintain the equilibrium price set in the market (d) Offer a new range of products 18. Which of the following products would have the lowest price elasticity of supply? (a) An apricot (b) A painting by Vincent Van Gogh (c) A truck (d) A compact disc 19. If the value of the Australian dollar appreciates then: (a) The demand for televisions will increase, leading to an increase in their equilibrium price (b) The equilibrium price for televisions will decrease, resulting in an expansion in demand (c) The supply of televisions will decrease, resulting in an increase in demand for books (d) The demand and supply curves for televisions will both shift to the right. 20. An increase in the number of people watching Digital Pay Television is likely to lead to: (a) An increase in the demand for rental DVD movies (b) A decrease in the advertising revenue received by Free-To-Air television stations (c) An increase in the supply of television sets (d) A decrease in the price charged for Digital Pay Television Chapter 2 Applied economic exercise The falling price of pay TV On November 3, 2014, Australia’s biggest TV provider, Foxtel, felt the need to significantly lower its selling price. The price for a monthly subscription to the basic package was reduced from $50 to $25 per month. Foxtel, who lacked any meaningful competition in the pay TV market, had been able to charge what many saw as a relatively high fee for their service. As a result, there had not been any significant increase in the demand for connections over a 10 year period. But what drove Foxtek to change its pricing structure? Despite Foxtel being the only Pay TV provider in the metropolitan region, the substitute entertainment services available to consumers has expanded rapidly in recent years. Many consumers, objecting to the high prices charged by Foxtel, decided to use peer to peer sites such as Pirate Bay to download popular programs, including ‘Game of Thrones’, ‘Breaking Bad’ and ‘The Walking Dead’. Those consumers unwilling to break the law were able to access a wider range of programs using subscriptions services such as Quickflix. Foxtel also realized that with new competitors entering the market, such as the US based Netflix, it was likely to lose even more market share. Accordingly, the fall in Foxtel prices was clearly as a result of changing conditions of demand and supply. Foxtel has essentially taken a big risk. Will the dramatic drop in price have a positive or negative impact on its total revenue? Given that the price decrease was effectively 50% for the basic package, it is hard to imagine Foxtel’s demand increasing by such a large percentage. After all, people will still be required to pay $45 to watch Game of Thrones or $50 to $60 to view the AFL games in high definition. It would be very difficult to ascertain the price elasticity of demand given that Foxtel is essentially changing the structure of its packages. There is also the perceived increased availability of substitutes that Foxtel is trying to gain business from before they exist. The new price requires customers to sign up for a 12 months. Brian Walsh, executive director of television, echoed comments by HBO chairman and CEO Richard Plepler, saying Foxtel wants to “build addicts” to its products - people who “can’t live without” their “must-watch shows” such as Game of Thrones. They hope to boost its demand, not just by reducing prices, but by adding more content. There will be an increasing number of programs that will be exclusive to Foxtel so the company is focusing on a number of demand factors to not only shift their demand curve to the right but also make it steeper. Another factor that might help Foxtel in its quest to grow its market base (which it has little direct control over) is the proposed changes to data collection by the Federal Government. If the government decides to force telecommunications companies to collect “meta-data” then they may be able to more easily identify and prosecute those who breach copyright legislation. The Government is also considering proposals that would block file sharing sites such as Pirate Bay. 40 Chapter 2: The market mechanism Application questions 1. 2. 3. 4. Explain using a demand and supply diagram, how the decrease in price by Foxtel may affect the market for their services. Explain, with reference to substitute products how the demand curve for Foxtel may have changed over the last 3 years. Identify and explain one other demand factor that may help to boost the number of pay TV subscriptions sold. Analyse the degree of price elasticity of demand for pay TV services such as Foxtel. In your answer refer to the factors affecting the PED Chapter summary 1. Microeconomics is the study of the individual parts of the economy that interact to make up the whole economy. 2. A market is anywhere that facilitates the exchange of goods and services. 3. A competitive market is one where all economic agents are price takers. No individual buyer or seller has the market power to influence prices. 4. Consumers will try to obtain the product at the lowest price possible while the seller will try to extract the highest price possible. Analysis of demand and supply predicts the likely compromise between the two parties. 5. The law of demand states that as the price of a product increases the quantity demanded will tend to decrease. Conversely if the price of the product decreases, the quantity demanded will tend to increase. 6. The law of demand is logical because at higher prices a consumer’s ability and willingness to purchase tends to decrease and because the consumption of most goods is subject to the law of diminishing marginal utility. 7. An increase in price is represented by a movement along the demand curve to the left. A decrease in price is represented by a movement along the demand curve to the right. 8. When the demand curve is drawn with price on the vertical axis and quantity on the horizontal axis, all other factors that affect the demand for the product are assumed to be held constant. A change in any of these factors will result in a shift of the demand curve to the left or right. 9. A shift of the demand curve to the right means that more is being demanded at each given price. A shift to the left of the demand curve means that less is being demanded at each given price. 10. An increase in disposable income will generally lead to a shift of the demand curve to the right for normal goods. 11. A decrease in interest rates will increase discretionary income for indebted households and businesses and usually result in an increase in demand for most goods and services. 12. If the price of a substitute good or service increases there will be an increase in demand for the alternative product (resulting in a shift to the right of the demand curve). 13. A complementary good or service is one that is consumed together with another. An increase in the price of a complementary good or service will mean that the cost of consuming both has increased resulting in a decrease in demand for the complementary good (even if its price has not increased). 14. An increase in population will generally result in an increase in the demand for most goods and services. 15. An increase in consumer sentiment, which measures consumers’ general expectations about future economic prosperity, will generally lead to an increase in discretionary spending and result in an increase in the demand for a broad range of goods and services. 16. If a product becomes fashionable it is likely to result in an increase in demand. 17. The law of supply states that as the price increases for a good or service there will generally be an increase in the quantity supplied. 18. The law of supply is logical because at higher prices suppliers have more incentive to shift resources into those areas which will generate greater profits. 19. An increase in the price of a product will result in a shift along the supply curve to the right. A decrease in the price of a product will result in a shift along the supply curve to the left. 20. When the supply curve is drawn with price on the vertical axis and quantity on the horizontal axis, all other factors affecting supply are assumed to be held constant. A change in any of these factors will result in a shift of the supply curve to the left or right. 21. If the supply curve shifts to the right, there will be a greater volume supplied to the market at each given price. A shift of the supply curve to the left means that less will be supplied at each given price. 22. An increase in the cost of any inputs associated with making a product will result in a shift of the supply curve to the left. 23. New technology may reduce the cost per unit and will tend to shift the supply curve to the right. 24. The profit margin is loosely defined as the difference between total sales revenue and total costs (or the difference between price and costs of producing the product). When a supplier seeks to lift the profit margin, this effectively results in the supply curve moving to the left. 25. The price of other products can be an important factor determining the willingness to supply and the position of the supply curve. When there is an increase in the price of other products, this effectively results in an increase in the opportunity costs, and pushes the supply curve to the left. 26. Supply for any good or service that depends upon favourable climatic conditions will shift left if changes in the climate restrict the production of the raw ingredients used to make these goods and services. 41 Economic Fundamentals in Australia 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 42 The market equilibrium is a situation where the demand for a good or service is equal to the supply of a good or service. A shortage develops when the price is below the equilibrium price and the demand is greater than the supply for the product. A surplus develops when the price is above the equilibrium price and the demand is less than the supply for the product. A movement of the demand and/or supply curve will result in a new equilibrium price and quantity traded. The relative price is seen as the price of any one good or service measured in terms of the price of another good or service. Relative prices send clear signals to producers and consumers and therefore direct resources to their highest end use. Prices help to answer the three economic questions; what to produce, how to produce and for whom to produce. They therefore determine how resources are allocated in the economy. The price mechanism describes how the forces of demand and supply determine relative prices of goods and services, which then ultimately determines the way our productive resources (e.g. labour and capital) are allocated in the economy. Price elasticity of demand refers to the responsiveness of demand to changes in prices. A low price elasticity of demand means that the percentage change in quantity demanded is less than the percentage change in price. A high price elasticity of demand means that the percentage change in quantity demanded is higher than the percentage change in prices. Price elasticity of demand will tend to increase if there are a number of viable options available for the consumer as small price increases result in a substitution towards these alternative products. Price elasticity of demand will tend to decrease if the good or service is deemed to be a necessity or is highly addictive. Price elasticity of demand will tend to increase if the purchase of the product consumes a large portion of a purchaser’s income. Price elasticity of supply measures the responsiveness of quantity supplied to changes in price. A low price elasticity of supply means that the percentage change in quantity supplied is less than the percentage change in price. A high price elasticity of supply means that the percentage change in supply is less than the percentage change in price. Price elasticity of supply will tend to increase if the product can be easily stored. Price elasticity of supply will tend to increase if firms are operating with some spare capacity and can ramp up production quickly. Price elasticity of supply will tend to be lower in the short term but as resources are re-allocated across the economy to more profitable areas, price elasticity will tend to increase.