Poland in 2010 vs. projections made in 1995
Yesterday’s Future Today
Leszek Kuźnicki
Forecasting always bears a risk of committing errors in assessing the future. Preparing
a range of different development scenarios
allows us to minimize this risk
ature of today’s world is the increased rate of
change. Under those conditions, any forecasts
expressed in absolute or relative categories can
be treated as very unlikely. In spite of these reservations I reached the conclusion that if we
are to try to picture our reality in 15 years’ time,
then it is essential to include numerical values.
Without them discussion about the future instantly becomes vacuous. There was one other
reason that encouraged me to take a risk and
make my projections as specific as possible. In
the past, especially during pre-election periods,
Polish society was astonished by visions of rapid development and increasing general wellbeing. As its title suggests, my work ‘Poland in
2010: An Optimistic Projection’ presents maximum development thresholds, and shows that
even so we will remain far behind the European Union in many fields, while many social and
environmental problems will remain unsolved.”
I took Poland’s accession to the European
Union by 2005 to be a basic prerequisite for
my optimistic vision. This major breakthrough
actually took place on 1 May 2004. On other,
less important issues, progress occurred at rates that have been both slower and faster than
predicted.
In early 1995, the “Poland in the 21st Century” Forecasting Committee affiliated with the
Presidium of the Polish Academy of Sciences
presented a book entitled In the Perspective of
2010. The publication included two sections: a
joint work entitled “The Road to 2010: A Report
on Preparing a Long-term Development Strategy for Poland Over 15 Years” and a text written
by me entitled “Poland in 2010: An Optimistic
Projection.” The first was a strategy outline, while the second presented a vision of our country,
differing from the first section both in method
and in content. My section, which included four
chapters devoted to society, the environment,
the economy, and culture, attempted to characterize my vision of Poland in 2010 concisely,
and to express it numerically wherever possible.
Optimistic projections
The introduction to my projections included
the reasons which led me to write on the topic
in the first place. I wrote: “A characteristic fe-
Poznań Supercomputing and Networking Centre
Forecasts from 1995 predicted that investment in science in Poland would reach around 2.0-2.5%
of GDP between 2005-2010. In reality it is just 0.5% of GDP
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One major shock was the rate of development of higher education, telecommunications,
and foreign travel. I projected that the number
of students would double between 1995-2010;
in fact the numbers trebled. I assumed that
the number of mobile phones would increase
a hundredfold over 15 years, while it increased
over a thousandfold. I did not predict that life
expectancy – one of the most objective measures of the society’s wellbeing – would increase
by almost two years for both men and women.
However, some of my predictions have turned
out to be very accurate: for example, replacing
military conscription with vocational and semi-vocational service, or a decrease in the number of parties in parliament.
There is no reason here to get into an in-depth analysis of all 64 quantifiers from my
publication. However, I do feel it is necessary to
point out those instances where my forecasts
turned out to be significantly incorrect.
Firstly, I predicted that science and R&D funding would come to account for around 2-2.5%
of GDP between 2005-2010. Unfortunately the
expenditure devoted to those essential fields
has hovered around 0.5%. A corollary of my assumptions was that at the end of the first decade of the new millennium, high-tech industry
would have a 15% share in Poland’s industrial
output. In reality it is only around 4%, and the
last 15 years have seen growth of only around
0.6%. This is a major step backwards, especially when this index is around 17% for the entire
EU.
On a global scale, I did not predict such a
major collapse of the US economy. I thought
that in 2010 the exchange rate of the US dollar
to the zloty would be 5:1.
met with my approval and support. On 31 October 1995, the national daily Rzeczpospolita published an article entitled “Poland in 2010: A
Pessimistic Projection”, prepared by a group of
students from Warsaw’s higher education establishments: Piotr Dubno, Jakub Fogtt, Łukasz
Grochowski, Jakub Karnowski, Dariusz Karwacki (coordinator), Adam Leszczyński, Marek Nowakowski, Artur Olech, Piotr Osiecki, Marek Pycia, Marek Tokarski, and Grzegorz Zawada. The
work on formulating the forecasts was supported by a group of consultant scientists: Krzysztof Ciebiera, Sebastian Duda, Robert Dygas, Michał Warchala, Paweł Olech, Jacek Pliszka, and
Jacek Sadowski.
The authors adopted nine general assumptions. Firstly they predicted negative changes
in the natural environment; secondly, the EU’s
unwillingness to accept Poland even though the
country would strive to join; thirdly, an identity
crisis at NATO. Within foreign policy, the authors
assumed a worsening in Poland’s relations with
Russia. In terms of domestic policy, they predicted no systemic reforms. In demographics they
raised concerns about the baby boomers of the
1970s reaching the working age. Finally they forecast no systemic reforms in agriculture, and
predicted that the significance of education would be under-appreciated.
The first three predictions have turned out
to be incorrect. The condition of Poland’s natural environment, waterways in particular, has
seen a marked improvement. Poland became a
member of the EU in May 2004, reaping numerous benefits ever since. NATO has not experienced an identity crisis, although the organization
is certainly badly in need of reform. Concerns
associated with the 1970s generation entering
the working age turned out to have been exaggerated. In addition, subsequent governments
over the course of the last 20 years have been
consistently failed to property appreciate the
importance of investing in education, but efforts have been largely taken on by society itself. We educate badly, but on a record scale.
On the other hand, during the past 15 years
Poland has not implemented essential reforms
of its political system, public finance and agricultural policy, while its relations with Russia
have seriously deteriorated. As such five out of
the nine predictions have turned out to be accu-
Youthful pessimism
The “Poland in 2010” report was met with
widespread interest and obtained many responses from the mass media, including newspapers, TV, and radio. It also provoked many
scientific discussions. One of them was my
meeting with a group of young people from the
Warsaw School of Economics and the University
of Warsaw. Following a long and heated debate,
some participants expressed a wish to prepare an antithesis to “Poland in 2010”, with the
backing of the Polish Academy of Sciences. This
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Polska Fundacja im. Roberta Schumana
Despite the pessimistic projections from 1995, Poland joined the European Union in 2004. The
photo shows an annual parade organized by the Schuman Foundation
lapse in foreign trade and balance of payments,
as well as increased poverty in rural areas and
structural unemployment. The authors forecast
a collapse in all spheres connected to the state
budget, including science, education, and healthcare – three areas key to Poland’s continuing
development.
Consequences not directly tied to the economy were also expected to be serious. The
projection assumed that Poland would not be
accepted by either the EU or NATO. Poland’s
reduced credibility and significance on the international arena, degradation of Polish society
and culture, and the potential return to Russia’s
sphere of influence were other elements in the
pessimistic forecast.
However, only the first two points have turned out to be true. Fortunately the others have
turned out to be excessively gloomy, and the
projected consequences nowadays simply provoke an indulgent smile. However, one question
needs answering: why were young people inclined to paint such a pessimistic picture of Poland in 2010?
I think that the reasons behind the pessi-
rate. Overall, considering the four incorrect assumptions, the “Pessimistic Projection” might
seem to be fairly accurate. However, when the
students’ predictions are analyzed in detail, the
reasons behind the failures and conflicts turn
out to be different from those in the forecast.
One prediction was that the reason behind a
lack of radical reforms would be an increase in
the number of political parties with poorly defined programs. The situation developed in the
opposite direction, with the number of political
parties decreasing.
The assumed failed reform, aging society,
decreasing investment, and neglected infrastructure came together to shape the following
vision of Poland in 2010. Firstly, there was to be
an increase in the budget deficit. Secondly, the
authors predicted an increase in the financial
burden borne by companies. The authors believed that financing the budget deficit would take
place at a cost of the economic sphere; they
predicted an impoverishment of society, as well
as social tension and conflict. There was to be
a return to high rates of inflation, decrease in
manufacturing levels, reduced investment, col-
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mism of students from the mid-90s were twofold. On one hand it carried the baggage of
idealized knowledge acquired from schools, TV,
and press during the 1980s. On the other hand
their insufficient understanding of the EU and
NATO was quite apparent. This was likely the
reason for the expressed concerns about foreigners settling freely in Poland, purchasing land
(especially Germans), or about the installation
of nuclear weapons in the country. At the same
time the text published in Rzeczpospolita in
1995 suggested that both the EU and NATO would try to put off Poland’s accession, while Russia would quickly regain its strength and start
pulling Poland back under its own influence.
Kleer J., Gawlas B., Wierzbicki A. (eds.). (2009). Rola nauki w myśleniu o przyszłości [The Role of Science in Thinking About the Future] Warsaw: Warszawska Drukarnia
Naukowa.
The real picture
The reality is quite different from those forecasts. External conditions between 1996-2009
have been extremely favorable for Poland’s development. All basic events set by the students
as measures of success – such as membership
in the EU and NATO – have been met. Furthermore the Lisbon Treaty, signed in late 2007,
was implemented on 1 December 2009 in spite
of various difficulties along the way. It paves the
way for further improvements of the EU.
In contrast to the incorrect assessments of
external factors in the “Pessimistic Projection,”
the internal factors which have a negative impact on Poland’s condition in 2010 were predicted accurately. The list includes conflicts
of jurisdiction between state institutions as a
consequence of the ambivalence of the constitution; destructive political conflict and putting immediate party interests above long-term
benefits for the state; a reluctance to carry out
effective reforms for fear of losing votes; and
under-appreciation of the role played by education and science.
I am convinced my optimistic view of Poland’s development was excessive 15 years ago,
but fortunately the key points of the pessimistic
vision have not come true. ■
Kuźnicki L. (1995). Polska w roku 2010 – projekcja optymistyczna [Poland in 2010: An Optimistic Projection]. In:
W perspektywie roku 2010 [In the Perspective of 2010].
Collective work of the “Poland 2000 Plus” Forecasting
Committee. Warsaw: Elipsa.
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