TRIM Daily
Nov 10, 2015
TRIM Highlights
JCI
Expect more sell-off today on the back of more concerns over Fed rate
(regional indices opened mostly lower this morning) and domestically investors are still awaiting upcoming cabinet reshuffle and tax amnesty proposal.
The stocks likely to buck the downtrend are: HMSP (on the back of lower
excise tax for hand-rolled kretek which contributes 25% of revenue, and
HMSP joining MSCI tomorrow), and KAEF (robust revenue growth expectation
as generic drugs volumes gaining traction). WIKA: private placement to
mitigate impact of delayed rights issue plan, positive. Consumer/retail:
Orangtua group is becoming aggressive on retail, potentially negative for
ACES and MDRN.
Global Wrap
Oil prices fell almost 1 percent on Monday, extending losses for a fourth
straight day, pressured by fresh inventory builds at the delivery point for
U.S. crude futures. On Monday, the front-month in Brent crude futures settled down 23 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $47.19 a barrel.
4,499.5
C hange
Transaction Volume (m)
Transaction Value (Rpbn)
Mkt C ap (Rptr)
Market 2015 P/E (x)
Market Div. Yield (%)
-1.47%
3,440
4,189
4,714
12.9
2.8%
Global Indices
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
Nikkei
ST Times
FTSE
Hang Seng
Price
C hg
%
17,730.5
5,095.3
19,642.7
2,997.7
6,295.2
22,726.8
-179.9
-51.8
377
-12.8
-58.7
-141
-1.0
-1.0
2.0
-0.4
-0.9
-0.6
Technical Market View
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 67 point or 1.5% to 4499 yesterday.
Index movers were mostly driven by basic industry (-3.2%), Miscellaneous
industry (-2.7%) and finance (-1.8%). Total transaction value was Rp3.4tr.
foreign recorded Rp87bn net sell. With negative sentiment from global and
regional market mostly opened in negative territory this morning. JCI today
is expected to continue its weakening trend and trade in 4432-4564 range.
Others
(USD)
TLKM
39.6
(Rp)
C hg
%
13,491
-0.41
-1.0
Dual Listing (NYSE)
USD IDR
Technical analysis: trading picks
10 yr Indo Govt bond (%)
10 yr US govt bond (%)
Stock
Price
Rating
AALI
19325
Spec Buy
LSIP
1365
Spec Buy
HMSP
KLBF
97775
1440
Buy
Reason
Stochastic Oscilator indicates positive signal of
a potential technical rebound for AALI. Spec
Buy at level 19000 with target price 19800
(resistance)
With stochastic indicator to form a golden
cross, we expect a technical rebound for LSIP
today in the range of 1310-1425. Spec Buy at
level 1330 with target price 1425 (resistance)
13,644
8.69
2.3
Spread (%)
EIDO
6.35
20.2
Foreign YtD (USDmn)
(2,740)
C hg
%
80 0.6
0.1 0.7
0.02 0.8
0.04 -0.1
-0.9 -4.4
6 -0.2
Buy at level 97700 with potential upside to level 99000 (resistance and double top)
Trading
Sell
KLBF is a long term bearish. We expect the
stock to mixed at the range of 1370-1455 as it
formed a black candle pattern yesterday.
ASII
6425
Sell
Despite its deep correction in the last days, we
believe ASII to move downward to close 6250
price-gaps. ASII’s support and resistance levels
for today are 6250-6700
BBRI
10575
Sell
BBRI today is expected to continue its weakening trend and trade in 10200-10750 range
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
TRIM DAILY
1
Investor Summit Takeaway
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ; BUY—TP Rp3,300)
•
TLKM guides 2015E revenue to grow better than market , while 2015E EBITDA margin to slightly decline. Its
9M15 revenue is already above consensus and slightly above our estimate, while EBITDA is in-line with consensus and ours.
•
Regarding asset revaluation, TKLM still studies it, but if the company decides to revaluate asset, possibily it
will be done on subsidiaries which will go public.
•
Project Loon will go for technical trial (cooperate with Telkomsel), but commercial is yet discussed. According
to TLKM, for commercial usage, the Loon Project is required to follow Indonesia’s regulations.
•
The company is trading at 7x 2016E EV/EBITDA.
Bakrie Telecom (BTEL IJ; NOT RATED; IDR50)
•
This telecommunication company was established back in 1993. In 2003, it started providing CDMA networks
through its brand Esia. BTEL mostly make a revenue from its cellular sales of voice and SMS.
•
Esia lost around 4,000 of subscribers from 11,648 in FY14 to 7,811 in 1H15, making its market share of
subscribers of ~8% from total telco market despite its marketing efforts.
•
In 2014, the company decided to shift its business model to be asset-light based by using its affiliated company’s networks instead of using theirs.
•
Despite fierce competition, BTEL still wants to expand its voice OTT business through newly launched mobile
app Esia Talk which allow customers to communicate to all networks, regardless which operators they subscribe to. Also, the company will start venturing into the 4G/LTE provider business.
•
Based on this strategy the company expects lower capex in the future.
•
BTEL booked a 1H15 net earnings loss of IDR2.4trn from a positive figure of IDR316bn in 1H14. The 1H15
earnings loss is dragged by large operating and financing costs.
•
BTEL plans to offer convertible bonds in FY16 to refinance its debt. (management trainee - Della.Agatha@trimegah.com)
MNC Land (KPIG IJ; NOT RATED; IDR1,345)
•
This property company was established in 1990. It has three types of property businesses: 1) Lifestyle &
entertainment property, 2) Resorts, 3) General developer and property management.
•
MNC Land has two key future projects under JV with foreign partners: Lido Nirwana at Bogor, West Java &
Nirwana Resort at Tanah Lot, Bali..
•
KPIG has just finished its 12 floor office tower in Surabaya, Oakwood Apartment in the East of Java is next to
be completed. Another upcoming project on the pipeline are MNC media tower and Park Hyatt Hotel.
•
Despite numerous projects on the pipeline, KPIG is still relying on its recurring income business streams
(office, hotel, and apartment) to support its 7-10% revenue growth in FY16.
•
The amount of capex needed for 2016 was not mentioned, however any financing schemes will be raised via
pre-sales proceeds and conventional loans.
•
9M15 revenue reached IDR839bn, up 37% YoY. 55.4% of its revenue comes from its hospitality business and
26% comes from apartment rentals.
•
The company is being
la.Agatha@trimegah.com)
traded
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
at
18.8x
annualized
FY15
P/E.
(management
trainee
-
TRIM DAILY
Del-
2
Investor Summit Takeaway
Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ; NOT RATED; IDR1,110)
•
MEDC was established in 1980 and had its IPO back in 1994. PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) is
an upstream oil and gas (O&G) player with several domestic and international assets in possession (eg;
Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Oman, Yemen, Libya, Tunisia and USA).
•
65% of MEDC O&G reserves are domestic-based and 35% are international-based. The upstream O&G business is highly driven by oil prices & gas prices.
•
However, MEDC is highly exposed to long term sales contract for gas (9M15 production accounts 41% gas
while 59% comes from oil).
•
MEDC’s Senoro Upstream/Downstream project has reached full-commercial phase and started its 1st LNG
delivery on August 2015.
•
MEDC will continue slimming down its business by cutting non-profitable segments going forward.
•
MEDC had around 200 Bn debt that will be mature in 2016. Half of the debt matured in 2016 will have its
maturity extended.
•
MEDC is currently trading at 13.6x/10.2x 2016-17 P/E based on bloomberg consensus.
•
Catalysts are: 1.) Rebound in oil price, 2.) Continous divestments on its unprofitable business segments.
(management trainee – alwin.januar@trimegah.com)
TLKM
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
TRIM DAILY
3
News of the Day
Banks: loan demand starts to increase, says some
bankers
BMRI Vice CEO, Sulaiman A Arianto, mentioned the company sees an increase in loan demand from its corporate,
commercial, small, and micro customers. The increase in
loan demand was particularly from food and beverage
sectors. Departing from this, BMRI remains optimistic to
book 11-13% YoY loan growth this year. At the same
time, OCBC NISP (NISP) also mentioned an increase in
loan demand prevalently from its retail to corporate
customers. Until 9M15, NISP has registered 23% YoY
loan
growth
to
Rp82tn.
Source:
kontan
(angga.aditya@trimegah.com)
BBNI: plans to
strengthen CAR
conduct
asset
revaluation
to
The company has chosen a public appraisal office to
revalue its fixed assets and expected to be done before
the end of FY15. The purpose is to enhance capitalization
by utilizing tax allowance opportunity provided by the
government. As of 9M15, BBNI’s CAR was at 17.4%.
Source: Investor Daily (angga.aditya@trimegah.com)
BMRI: sharia subsidiary to issue Rp500bn sukuk
bond next year
The proceeds from sukuk issuance will be used to refinance maturing sukuk in 1H16. In addition, the company also admits to have done a private placement deal on
project-based sukuk (PBS) series 010 worth Rp1tn to
support sharia capital market development. Source:
Investor Daily (angga.aditya@trimegah.com)
BBTN: obtains Rp700bn borrowings from SMF
The proceeds will be used to support company’s loan
growth. The borrowings has 8.5% interest rate with 1
year tenor. This make up a Rp2.7tn total borrowing provided by SMF to BBTN. Source: Investor Daily
(angga.aditya@trimegah.com)
BBTN: proposes 0% DP for low-income first home
buyers
Data from Ministry of Public Works and Housing says
there are 25 million families in the country who are not
able to get mortgage loans to buy a house. The numbers
is equivalent to ~100 millions of Indonesian people
(~40% of total Indonesia population). Therefore, BBTN
proposes the government to review the down-payment
regulation for low-income first home buyers, by eliminating the down-payment for these customers. Source:
detik.com (angga.aditya@trimegah.com)
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
BVIC: to become one of BUKU III banks in 2018
The company targets to increase its tier-1 capital to be
>Rp5tn in 2018. As of 9M15, total tier-1 capital was
Rp2.1tn. Director Andrew Haswin explains the company
might conduct rights issue, accumulating more retained
earnings, or inviting strategic partners to realize this goal.
Source: Investor Daily (angga.aditya@trimegah.com)
Textile industry to grow 10% QoQ in 4Q15
The textile industry expects government efforts to curb
illegal imports and reduce electricity costs will help improve
the industry’s growth in 4Q15, said senior executive at the
Indonesian Textile Association (API). Industry is expected
to grow 11% QoQ in 4Q15 but lower compared to YoY (no
figure
given).
Source:
The
Jakarta
Post
(willinoy.sitorus@trimegah.com)
Comment:
Beneficiaries are SRIL and PBRX.
MYRX: plans to issue 10% of new shares (1.53bn
shares) with price of IDR700/share
This translates to proceeds of IDR1,073bn. The proceeds
would be used for expansion purposes. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia (willinoy.sitorus@trimegah.com)
TAM targets 5,000 units of Innova sales for the next
3 months
Toyota Astra Motor (TAM - ASII owns 51% ownership),
targets Innova to be sold 5,000 units in the next 3 months
from its launch in 23 November 2015 and will normalize at
4,000 units/month after that. TAM marketing director,
Rahmat Samulo, said that 60% of Innova users are loyal
customers.
Source:
The
Bisnis
Indonesia
(willinoy.sitorus@trimegah.com)
Comment:
4,000 units/month is too conservative in our view as there
is no change compared to monthly sales of the current
Innova. We maintain our BUY call for ASII with TP of
IDR7,200.
TLKM: Possibility for three subsidiaries to go public
TLKM intends to maximize its subsidiary’s value through
capital market considering that TLKM’s multiple to EBITDA
is ~5-7x, while tower company and data center are higher
(13x and 12x respectively). Source: Kontan, Tempo.co
PANR: Lower revenue growth target from 20% to
12%
Amounting to Rp2.19tn. In 9M15, outbound travel grows
12.3% to Rp1.2tr, while inbound only grows 0.03% to
Rp250bn. Source: Kontan
TRIM DAILY
4
News of the Day
WIKA: Private placement and bonds issuance to
mitigate capital injection delay
Retail industry: Orang Tua Group to expand its retail
business
According to Adji Firmantoro, WIKA is still waiting for the
capital injection approval in 2016 revised state budget,
but, should the capital injection does not come through,
WIKA will provide alternative scheme to raise funds. Adji
mentioned 10% private placement, with Rp2,800/share,
the proceeds should amount to Rp2.8tn. WIKA also has
the alternative plan to issue shelf-registered global bonds
with the amount of Rp6tn and 5 years maturity, with the
first phase issuing Rp1.4tn. Source: Investor Daily
Orang Tua group will seriously expand its retail business by
opening new stores for JYSK Indonesia (home improvement store), MOR (convenience store), and BEAU (beauty
store). The company plans to open 10 new stores for each
segment in FY16. Currently, it has 7 JYSK stores, 15 MOR
stores, and 10 BEAU stores. Source: Kontan
Comment:
This will bring tighter competition for ACES (Neutral, TP
Rp600), and MDRN. (dian.ociana@trimegah.com).
Comment:
The director mentioned that government must maintain
at least 55% ownership of WIKA, thus 10% private
placement will be the max WIKA can do. That said, possible cancelation in the capital injection is detrimental for
WIKA, as interest expense could shoot up in the effort to
bridge WIKA’s funding.
Cigarette industry: breakdown indication of new
excise tax
According to our channel check, the highest raise of new
cigarette’s excise tariff will be applied to SPM and SKM
segment; 16.47% and 15.66%, respectively. We note
that average excise tariff hikes is approximately 11%, as
same as The Finance Minister’s statement. The related
regulation will soon to be released.
PBRX: Planned to create subsidiaries in Vietnam,
Cambodia, and Bangladesh
In-line with their expansion plan in Asia. Currently, export
contributed 98.5% of PBRX’s revenue, with 48% comes
from Asia. PBRX targeted 10-20% revenue growth in 2016.
They will add 3 new factories that will start its development in the end of 2Q16 and will increase production
capacity to 96mn pieces per year. Investment needed
amounts to USD25.7mn which will be taken from 2017
capex amounting to USD30mn. Source: Kontan
LPKR: prepares Rp2.3tr REIT
Backed by their shopping malls and hospitals through Lippo
Malls Indonesia Retail Trust Management Ltd in Singapore.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia (wisnu.budhiargo@trimegah.com)
Comment:
This new excise tariff will bring bigger effect to GGRM, as
SKM segment contributes ~90% of its production volume. Meanwhile, HMSP has more diversified segments in
its production volume; ~60% SKM, ~25% SKT, and
~15% SPM. Yet, our forecast for GGRM and HMSP has
factored a 15% excise tariff hike for SKM segment in
FY16. We have a BUY call for GGRM (TP Rp52,800) and
HMSP (TP Rp102k). (dian.octiana@trimegah.com)
Current excise Average
% % average
tariff (Rp/
excise hike
Increase
increase
s ck)
(Rp)
SKM
1
415
65
15.7
15.7
SKM
15.7
SKM
2
305
35
11.5
12.3
SKM
2
265
35
13.2
12.3
SPM
1
425
70
16.5
16.5
SPM
16.5
SPM
16.5
SPM
2
270
35
13.0
14.4
SPM
2
220
35
15.9
14.4
SKT / SPT
1
290
30
10.3
10.9
SKT / SPT
1
220
25
11.4
10.9
SKT / SPT
2
140
15
10.7
11.4
SKT / SPT
2
125
15
12.0
11.4
SKT / SPT
11.4
SKT / SPT
3A
85
5
5.9
SKT / SPT
3B
80
0
0.0
Average increase, %
11.3
Type
Tier
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
Economy : Lower income tax (personal & corporate)
is on discussion.
Finance Minister, Bambang Brodjonegoro, state that currently government is on discussion to revise Income Tax
Decree (UU PPh). They plan to lower corporate income tax
from the 25% to at least 20%. Meanwhile, they still unclear for the personal income tax cut which currently varied
from
5%
to
30%.
Source:
Kontan
(dini.anggraeni@trimegah.com)
New
480
340
300
495
305
255
320
245
155
140
90
80
TRIM DAILY
5
Table
Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield
JCI PE (LHS)
(X)
18.0
5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield
Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)
17.0
(%)
10.0
4.5
9.5
4.0
9.0
16.0
8.5
Bond Yield US
(%)
Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD
3.5
3.0
2.5
15.0
8.0
2.0
7.5
14.0
1.5
7.0
1.0
Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)
Weekly
Hang Seng
Singapore
Thailand
Philippines
Oct-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
0.0
Jan-15
12.0
6.0
Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov14 14
15
15 15
15 15
15 15
15
15 15
15
Nov-14
0.5
Nov-14
6.5
Dec-14
13.0
Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days
Malaysia
Indonesia
(x)
22.0
5 Days
(USDmn)
30 Days
1,000
846
800
20.0
600
18.0
400
283
200
112
4
(400)
8.0
(600)
-472
2015
2015
2014
2014
2013
2013
2012
2012
2011
2011
2010
2010
2010
6.0
Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold
Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS)
Coal (mt) (LHS)
CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)
Gold (RHS)
(USD)
(USD/ Troy oz.)
85
-2
-74
PHILIPPINES
10.0
INDONESIA
(200)
SOUTH KOREA
-10
12.0
49
5
INDIA
0
VIETNAM
14
14.0
76
THAILAND
16.0
CPO Malaysia (LHS)
Soybean (RHS)
(USD
Bushels)
1,100
(MYR Tons)
3,000
1,500
80
2,500
1,000
2,000
900
1,500
800
1,000
700
500
600
-
500
1,300
75
70
1,100
65
60
900
55
50
700
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
500
Nov-14
40
Nov-14
45
TRIM DAILY
6
Table
Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector
Coal (LHS)
CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector
CPO Malaysia (LHS)
COAL Sector (RHS)
CPO Sector (RHS)
(MYR / Ton)
(USD/MT)
80
250
3,000
90
80
70
200
2,500
70
60
2,000
50
60
150
50
1,500
40
40
100
30
30
1,000
20
50
20
500
10
10
ANTM (LHS)
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Apr-15
May-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
0
Nov-14
INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)
INCO (LHS)
-
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Feb-15
0
Dec-14
-
ANTM vs Gold price
Nickel LME (RHS)
(Rp)
4,500
(USD /MT)
18,000
4,000
16,000
3,500
14,000
ANTM (LHS)
(Rp)
1,000
Gold (RHS)
(USD troy oz.)
1,400
900
1,300
800
1,200
700
3,000
1,100
12,000
600
2,500
1,000
10,000
500
900
2,000
8,000
1,500
6,000
1,000
4,000
200
500
2,000
100
600
0
500
TINS (LHS)
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
700
Nov-14
TINS vs Tin price (LME)
(Rp)
1,400
800
300
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
Nov-14
-
400
GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil
Tin LME (RHS)
(USD/MT)
24,000
GIAA (LHS)
Crude Oil Brent (RHS)
(Rp)
700
(USD bbl)
100
21,000
1,200
600
80
18,000
1,000
500
15,000
800
60
400
12,000
600
9,000
400
300
6,000
200
3,000
100
40
20
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
0
Dec-14
0
Dec-14
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
Nov-14
0
Nov-14
200
TRIM DAILY
7
World Economic Calendar
Date Time
Country Event
Period
Survey
Actual
Prior
11/3/2015
US
Factory Orders
Sep
-0.9
-1.0
-1.7
11/4/2015
EC
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Oct F
54.2
54.1
54.2
54
53.9
54
--
-0.8
-3.5
11/5/2015
11/6/2015
EC
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Oct F
US
MBA Mortgage Applications
30-Oct
US
ADP Employment Change (USDbn)
Oct
180
182.0
200
US
Trade Balance (USDbn)
Sep
-41
-40.8
-48.3
US
Markit US Composite PMI
Oct F
--
55.0
54.5
US
Markit US Services PMI
Oct F
54.5
54.8
54.4
US
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Oct
56.5
59.1
56.9
EC
PPI MoM
Sep
-0.5
-0.3
-0.8
-2.6
EC
PPI YoY
Sep
-3.3
-3.1
ID
GDP YoY
3Q
4.8
4.7
4.7
US
Initial Jobless Claims ('000')
31-Oct
262
276.0
260
US
Continuing Claims ('000')
24-Oct
2140
2163.0
2144
US
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
1-Nov
--
41.1
42.8
EC
Markit Eurozone Retail PMI
Oct
--
51.3
51.9
EC
Retail Sales MoM
Sep
0.2
-0.1
0.0
EC
Retail Sales YoY
Sep
3.0
2.9
2.3
142
US
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls ('000')
Oct
185
271
US
Change in Manufact. Payrolls ('000')
Oct
-5
0
-9
US
Unemployment Rate (%)
Oct
5
5
5.1
101.7
ID
Foreign Reserves (USDbn)
Oct
-
100.7
11/9/2015
EC
Sentix Investor Confidence
Nov
13.1
15.1
11.7
11/10/2015
US
NFIB Small Business Optimism
Oct
96.5
--
96.1
US
US
Import Price Index MoM
Wholesale Inventories MoM
Oct
Sep
-0.3
0.1
---
-0.1
0.1
11/11/2015
US
MBA Mortgage Applications
6-Nov
--
--
-0.8
11/12/2015
US
Initial Jobless Claims
7-Nov
270
--
276
2165
--
2163
--
--
41.1
11/13/2015
US
Continuing Claims
31-Oct
US
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
8-Nov
EC
Industrial Production SA MoM
Sep
-0.1
--
-0.5
EC
US
US
Industrial Production WDA YoY
Monthly Budget Statement (USDbn)
Retail Sales Advance MoM (%)
Sep
Oct
Oct
1.3
-130
0.2
----
0.9
-0.1
-0.3
US
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (%)
Oct
0.4
--
US
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (%)
Oct
0.4
--
0.0
US
PPI Final Demand MoM (%)
Oct
0.2
--
-0.5
US
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%)
Oct
0.1
--
-0.3
US
PPI Final Demand YoY (%)
Oct
-1.2
--
-1.1
US
PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (%)
Oct
--
--
0.8
US
U. of Mich. Sentiment
Nov P
91.5
--
90
EC
Trade Balance SA (USDbn)
Sep
19.3
--
19.8
EC
Trade Balance NSA (USDbn)
Sep
16
--
11.2
EC
GDP SA QoQ (%)
3Q A
0.4
--
0.4
EC
GDP SA YoY (%)
3Q A
1.7
--
1.5
11/16/2015
US
Empire Manufacturing
Nov
-5
--
-11.4
11/16/2015
ID
Trade Balance (USDmn)
Oct
--
--
1017
11/17/2015
ID
Exports YoY
Oct
--
--
-18.0
EC
CPI MoM
Oct
--
--
0.2
EC
CPI YoY
Oct F
--
--
0.0
EC
CPI Core YoY
Oct F
--
--
1.0
--
--
-0.2
--
--
0.2
11/17/2015
US
US
CPI MoM
CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
Oct
Oct
TRIM DAILY
8
Corporate Action
Warrant
Code
Price
Exercise
INVS-W
165
SUGI-W
100
MCOR-W
200
Maturity Emiten
8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom
21-May-15 Sugih Energy
Description
WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM
WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY
10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL
GAMA-W
105
16-Jul-15 Gading Development
SUPR-W
4800
28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama
WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA
NIRO-W
110
11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development
WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT
BSIM-W
149
11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas
WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT
TRIM DAILY
9
Statistics
JCI
4,499.5
YTD (Rp)
YTD (USD)
Moving Avg 20day
Moving Avg 50day
Moving Avg 200day
Indonesia & Sectors
MSC I Indonesia
JII
LQ45
JAKFIN Index
JAKINFR Index
JAKMINE Index
JAKC ONS Index
JAKTRAD Index
JAKMIND Index
JAKBIND Index
JAKPROP Index
JAKAGRI Index
Commodities
C RB Index
Oil & Gas
(67.0)
-13.92%
5.67%
4,565
4,439
4,962
Ma rket Div. Yield (%) 2.8%
5,275.7
591.4
768.0
664.8
903.2
940.5
2,074.6
822.7
1,117.8
377.6
472.6
1,735.8
+/-111.0
-12.4
-15.8
-12.4
-4.9
-9.4
-11.8
-6.9
-26.8
-12.6
-13.5
-32.3
(%)YTD (%)
-2.1
-14.9
-2.1
-14.4
-2.0
-14.5
-1.8
-9.1
-0.5
-22.2
-1.0
-31.3
-0.6
-4.7
-0.8
-6.4
-2.3
-14.5
-3.2
-30.6
-2.8
-10.0
-1.8
-26.2
189.2
+/-1.8
(%)YTD (%)
-0.95
-17.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
0.1
-0.49
-0.95
-2.99
0.19
-17.6
-17.7
-20.7
-15.8
-9.5
-50
-65
-0.63
-0.52
-0.44
-17.8
-36.8
-24.9
0.4
-0.3
0.04
-1.89
-8.1
-7.6
47.0
-2.1
-6.3
-21.5
-1.0
2.09
-0.18
-1.68
-4.11
-0.12
0.0
-27.5
-7.6
-15.0
-15.0
Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl)
47.2
Nymex Oil (USD/bbl)
43.9
Natural Gas
2.3
C OAL (AUS Daily)
52.2
Industrial Metals
Aluminum (USD/tonne)
1,507.5
Nickel (USD/tonne)
9,580
Tin (USD/tonne)
14,575
Precious Metal
Gold (USD/t oz.)
1,088.1
Silver (USD/t oz.)
14.4
Soft Commodities
C PO
PO (Malaysia
(Malaysia- Rm/tonne)
- Rm/tonne) 2,291
Rubber (JPY/kg)
1,191
C orn (USD/bu.)
367
Wheat (USD/bu.)
502
Soybeans (USD/bu.)
866
JCI Winners (%)
-1.5%
Volume (m)
3,440
Value (Rpbn)
4,189
Mkt C ap (Rptr)
4,714
Market 2015 P/E (x) 12.9
JCI Losers (%)
Indices
Region
MXWO
MSC I Word
1,691.6
SPX
S&P 500
2,078.6
US
Dow Jones Industrial
17,730.5
Nasdaq
US
5,095.3
Europe
EURO 50
Europe
375.9
FTSE
London
6,295.2
DAX
Jerman
10,815.5
C AC
France
4,911.2
SMI
Swiss
8,876.7
BRIC
BOVESPA
Brazil
46,194.9
MIC EX
Russia
1,751.4
SENSEX
India
26,121.4
NIFTY
India
7,915.2
SHC OMP
C hina
3,646.9
SZC OMP
C hina
2,191.6
Developed ASIA
+/-12.79
-20.62
(%) Y T D ( %)
-0.75
-1.06
-0.98
0.96
-179.9
-51.82
-1.00
-1.01
-0.52
7.58
-4.07
-58.67
-172.6
-72.98
-93.60
-1.07
-0.92
-1.57
-1.46
-1.04
9.75
-4.13
10.30
14.94
-1.19
-724
-2.92
-143.8
-39.1
56.85
39.17
-1.54
-0.17
-0.55
-0.49
1.58
1.82
-7.62
25.41
-5.01
-4.44
12.74
54.86
Nikkei
TPX
HSI
KOSPI
TAIEX
FSSTI
ASEAN
SET
PC OMP
KLC I
Kurs
VNINDEX
USDEUR
USDGBP
USDC HF
USDC AD
USDAUD
USDNZD
USDJPY
USDC NY
USDHKD
USDSGD
Rupiah
377.1
27.38
-141
-15.37
-51.1
-12.75
1.96
1.75
-0.61
-0.75
-0.59
-0.42
12.56
13.04
-3.72
5.75
-7.14
-10.92
JCI Value (Rpbn)
-
200
Japan
Japan
Hong kong
S.Korea
Taiwan
Singapore
Thailand
1,402.6
Philipines
7,070.2
Malaysia
1,686.1
Region
Vietnam
610.7
Euro
0.930
UK
0.662
Switzerland
1.004
C anada
1.329
Australia
1.419
New Zealand
1.531
Japan
123.18
C hina
6.36
Hongkong
7.752
Singapore
1.423
Indonesia
13,644
JCI Volume (mn Lot)
400
0
ANTM
5,952
MYRX
150
PGAS
5,865
115
MIKA
5,843
103
ASII
ASRI
90
ISSP
5,072
102
SUGI
88
BBNI
5,068
BBCA
99
SSMS
83
SSMS
4,606
ASII
MIKA
98
META
78
UNTR
4,424
BBRI
PGAS
89
TARA
69
HMSP
4,233
UNVR
BBNI
84
ISSP
63
LPPF
4,154
INTP
HMSP
-5.1
INDF
SSMS
158
PPRO
2.8
-4.0
SMGR
BMRI
144
BIPI
KLBF
2.5
-3.9
PGAS
BBRI
117
HMSP
2.5
-3.1
BBCA
MYRX
TOWR
2.4
-3.1
BMRI
PLIN
2.1
-2.7
BBNI
1.2
MIKA
1.0
DSNG
5.0
ISAT
4.7
BMTR
-8.2
-6.5
-1.2
-0.8
JCI Freq (x)
200
168
ASII
8.0
100
-11.97 -0.85
-6.35
-48.0 -0.67
-2.22
0.41
0.02
-4.27
D ( %)
+/- (%)
-1.70
-0.28 Y T 11.92
-0.001
-0.1
16.3
-0.003
-0.4
10.3
-0.002
-0.2
0.4
-0.002
-0.1
10.7
-0.001
-0.0
18.3
-0.002
-0.1
17.7
0.050
0.0
2.8
0.01
0.1
2.6
0.001
0.0
-0.6
0.002
0.2
9.5
80.0
0.6
10.1
ANTM
MLBI
ABMM
19,642.7
1,591.0
22,726.8
2,025.7
8,642.5
2,997.7
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
318
193
5,592
TRIM DAILY
10
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)
Ticker
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,589
strengthened
PTPP
3,805
Buy
GGRM
43,425
Buy
SMRA
1,420
Buy
BBRI
10,550
Buy
BBTN
1,095
Buy
SRIL
Ticker
JCI
NIRO
392
Trd. Buy
Last
Technical Call
4,589
strengthened
128
Buy
DMAS
230
Buy
SMCB
1,100
Buy
ITMG
10,500
Buy
SRIL
392
Buy
3,000
Sell
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,487
strengthened
TLKM
2,740
Buy
TBIG
PGAS
Ticker
6,400
Buy
PWON
397
Buy
ASRI
398
Buy
ASII
6,125
Sell
PGAS
2,950
Sell
Last
Technical Call
4,589
strengthened
Ticker
JCI
TINS
710
Buy
INCO
2,310
Buy
BBNI
5,025
Sell
BBRI
10,550
Sell
PWON
416
Buy
SMGR
10,550
Buy
Ticker
JCI
Last
Technical Call
4,344
strengthened
AALI
20,325
Buy
BMRI
8,200
Buy
367
Buy
BBNI
4,400
Buy
ITMG
10,000
Sell
SMGR
10,050
Spec Buy
PWON
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
12-Oct-15
Chg (%)
4,612
3,830
43,700
1,440
10,675
1,105
397
9-Oct-15
130
231
1,105
10,850
397
2,995
2,710
6,450
390
377
6,325
2,890
730
2,410
5,025
10,675
420
10,700
4,446
20,000
8,900
383
4,535
10,175
10,075
0.66%
Correct
0.63%
Correct
1.41%
Correct
1.18%
Correct
0.91%
Correct
1.28%
Correct
Recommendation
0.48%
Correct
1.56%
Correct
0.43%
Correct
0.45%
Correct
3.33%
Correct
1.28%
Correct
-0.17%
Correct
Recommendation
0.10%
Correct
-1.09%
Incorrect
0.78%
Correct
-1.76%
Incorrect
-5.28%
Incorrect
3.27%
Incorrect
-2.03%
Correct
Chg (%)
4,612
6-Oct-15
Correct
Chg (%)
4,491
7-Oct-15
0.48%
Chg (%)
4,612
8-Oct-15
Recommendation
Recommendation
0.48%
Correct
2.82%
Correct
4.33%
Correct
0.00%
Incorrect
1.18%
Incorrect
0.96%
Correct
1.42%
Correct
Chg (%)
Recommendation
2.35%
Correct
-1.60%
Incorrect
8.54%
Correct
4.36%
Correct
3.07%
Correct
1.75%
Incorrect
0.25%
Correct
TRIM DAILY
11
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (2)
Ticker
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,208
strengthened
ITMG
9,725
Spec Buy
PWON
339
Spec Buy
ANTM
481
Spec Buy
PTPP
3,585
Buy
GGRM
44,450
Buy
SSMS
1,730
Buy
Ticker
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,255
Weakening
PTPP
3,580
Buy
ASII
5,275
Buy
AALI
19,300
Buy
TINS
680
Buy
2,545
Buy
43,300
Buy
INCO
GGRM
Ticker
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,224
strengthened
TLKM
2,645
Buy
TBIG
6,550
Buy
ROTI
1,175
Buy
UNVR
38,000
INCO
2,185
Trd. Buy
TINS
640
Trd. Buy
Ticker
Buy
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,178
strengthened
PTPP
3,475
Buy
BBNI
4,070
Buy
BBRI
8,350
Buy
5,300
Buy
GGRM
ASII
42,750
Sell
UNTR
16,900
Sell
Last
Technical Call
JCI
Ticker
4,121
Weakening
PTPP
3,410
Buy
ROTI
1,145
Buy
TBIG
6,400
Buy
AKRA
5,875
Sell
BBTN
1,000
Sell
LSIP
1,400
Sell
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
5-Oct-15
4,344
10,000
367
481
3,700
46,600
1,795
2-Oct-15
4,208
3,585
5,125
19,100
665
2,480
44,450
1-Oct-15
4,255
2,630
6,500
1,180
38,800
2,545
680
30-Sep-15
4,224
3,465
4,135
8,650
5,225
42,000
17,475
29-Sep-15
4,178
3,475
1,125
6,400
5,950
995
1,415
Chg (%)
3.23%
Recommendation
Correct
2.83%
Correct
8.26%
Correct
0.00%
Correct
3.21%
Correct
4.84%
Correct
3.76%
Correct
Chg (%)
-1.11%
Recommendation
Correct
0.14%
Correct
-2.84%
Incorrect
-1.04%
Incorrect
-2.21%
Incorrect
-2.55%
Incorrect
2.66%
Correct
Chg (%)
Recommendation
0.73%
Correct
-0.57%
Incorrect
-0.76%
Incorrect
0.43%
Correct
2.11%
Correct
16.48%
Correct
6.25%
Correct
Chg (%)
Recommendation
1.09%
Correct
-0.29%
Incorrect
1.60%
Correct
3.59%
Correct
-1.42%
Incorrect
-1.75%
Correct
3.40%
Incorrect
Chg (%)
Recommendation
1.41%
Incorrect
1.91%
Correct
-1.75%
Incorrect
0.00%
Correct
1.28%
Incorrect
-0.50%
Correct
1.07%
Incorrect
TRIM DAILY
12
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (3)
Ticker
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,209
Rebound
TLKM
2,655
Buy
PTPP
3,470
Buy
BBNI
4,110
Buy
BBRI
8,550
Buy
ADRO
585
Buy
AKRA
6,000
Sell
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,244
Weakening
ITMG
9,500
Buy
TBIG
6,550
Buy
LSIP
1,320
Buy
AALI
17,925
Buy
INCO
1,870
Buy
TINS
620
Buy
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,344
Weakening
LSIP
1,260
Buy
ASII
5,800
Buy
TBIG
Ticker
Ticker
6,800
Buy
ADRO
595
Buy
SRIL
373
Buy
BWPT
254
Sell
Last
Technical Call
JCI
Ticker
4,376
Rebound
TLKM
2,730
Buy
AALI
18,100
Buy
ASII
5,800
Buy
BBNI
4,330
Buy
DILD
625
Buy
ROTI
1,175
Buy
Last
Technical Call
Ticker
JCI
4,380
Weakening
ROTI
1,175
Buy
SCMA
2,780
Buy
GGRM
42,825
Buy
TLKM
2,690
Buy
EXCL
2,395
Sell
895
Sell
WTON
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
28-Sep-15
4,121
2,600
3,410
3,940
8,300
550
5,875
25-Sep-15
4,209
9,150
6,500
1,400
17,950
2,080
645
23-Sep-15
4,244
1,320
5,500
6,550
580
377
246
22-Sep-15
4,344
2,700
17,900
5,800
4,300
610
1,150
21-Sep-15
4,376
1,175
2,800
43,025
2,730
2,415
885
Chg (%)
Recommendation
-2.11%
Incorrect
-2.07%
Incorrect
-1.73%
Incorrect
-4.14%
Incorrect
-2.92%
Incorrect
-5.98%
Incorrect
-2.08%
Correct
Chg (%)
Recommendation
-0.82%
Correct
-3.68%
Incorrect
-0.76%
Incorrect
6.06%
Correct
0.14%
Correct
11.23%
Correct
4.03%
Correct
Chg (%)
Recommendation
-2.29%
Correct
4.76%
Correct
-5.17%
Incorrect
-3.68%
Incorrect
-2.52%
Incorrect
1.07%
Correct
-3.15%
Correct
Chg (%)
Recommendation
-0.73%
Incorrect
-1.10%
Incorrect
-1.10%
Incorrect
0.00%
Correct
-0.69%
Incorrect
-2.40%
Incorrect
-2.13%
Incorrect
Chg (%)
Recommendation
-0.10%
Correct
0.00%
Correct
0.72%
Correct
0.47%
Correct
1.49%
Correct
0.84%
Correct
-1.12%
Correct
TRIM DAILY
13
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (4)
Ticker
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,378
strengthened
BBNI
4,350
Buy
SCMA
2,700
Buy
UNVR
39,100
Buy
640
Buy
WIKA
2,725
Sell
ROTI
1,180
Sell
Last
Technical Call
4,333
Rebound
TINS
Ticker
JCI
UNTR
18,850
Buy
TLKM
2,720
Buy
BBNI
4,315
Buy
PWON
348
Buy
SMGR
9,700
Buy
ASII
5,900
Buy
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,347
Weakening
AKRA
5,575
Buy
UNTR
18,200
Buy
BBNI
4,360
Buy
BMRI
8,700
Buy
WIKA
2,675
Sell
MPPA
2,290
Sell
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,390
Weakening
BBNI
4,450
Buy
Ticker
Ticker
BBCA
12,100
Buy
AKRA
5,750
Buy
SMRA
1,330
Buy
19,975
Sell
2,665
Sell
Last
Technical Call
JCI
4,360
Rebond
LSIP
1,170
Buy
INTP
PGAS
Ticker
BWPT
275
Buy
KLBF
1,550
Buy
AALI
18,000
Sell
ADRO
565
PGAS
2,685
Spec. Buy
Sell
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
18-Sep-15
4,380
4,285
2,780
39,100
620
2,710
1,175
17-Sep-15
4,378
18,675
2,680
4,350
351
9,700
5,925
16-Sep-15
4,333
5,575
18,850
4,315
8,650
2,660
2,245
15-Sep-15
4,347
4,360
11,950
5,575
1,300
19,300
2,620
14-Sep-15
4,390
1,210
275
1,545
18,125
570
2,665
Chg (%)
Recommendation
0.04%
Correct
-1.49%
Incorrect
2.96%
Correct
0.00%
Correct
-3.13%
Incorrect
-0.55%
Correct
-0.42%
Correct
Chg (%)
Recommendation
1.06%
Correct
-0.93%
Incorrect
-1.47%
Correct
0.81%
Incorrect
0.86%
Incorrect
0.00%
Correct
0.42%
Correct
Chg (%)
Recommendation
-0.34%
Correct
0.00%
Correct
3.57%
Correct
-1.03%
Incorrect
-0.57%
Incorrect
-0.56%
Correct
-1.97%
Correct
Chg (%)
Recommendation
-0.98%
Correct
-2.02%
Correct
-1.24%
Correct
-3.04%
Incorrect
-2.26%
Incorrect
-3.38%
Correct
-1.69%
Correct
Chg (%)
Recommendation
0.69%
Correct
3.42%
Correct
0.00%
Correct
-0.32%
Incorrect
0.69%
Incorrect
0.88%
Correct
-0.74%
Correct
TRIM DAILY
14
Research Team
Sebastian Tobing, CFA
Head of Research & Institutional Business
(sebastian.tobing@trimegah.com)
Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA
Technical Analyst
(gina.nasution@trimegah.com)
M. Dian Octiana
Equity Analyst
(dian.octiana@trimegah.com)
Jennifer Yapply
Equity Analyst
(jennifer.yapply@trimegah.com)
Paula Ruth
Equity Analyst
(paula@trimegah.com)
Wisnu Budhiargo
Equity Analyst
(wisnu.budhiargo@trimegah.com)
Dini Agmivia Anggraeni
Fixed Income/Macro Analyst
(dini.anggraeni@trimegah.com)
Angga Aditya Assaf
Equity Analyst
(angga.aditya@trimegah.com)
Patricia Gabriela
Equity Analyst
(patricia.gabriela@trimegah.com)
Yeni Simanjuntak
On-the-ground Analyst
(yeni.simanjuntak@trimegah.com)
Willinoy Sitorus
Equity Analyst
(willinoy.sitorus@trimegah.com)
Kevie Aditya
Equity Analyst
(kevie.aditya@trimegah.com)
Rovandi
Research Associate
(rovandi@trimegah.com)
Institutional Sales Team
Daniel Dwi Seputro
Head of Institutional Equity Sales
(daniel.dwi@trimegah.com)
Dewi Yusnita
Equity Institutional Sales
(dewi.yusnita@trimegah.com)
Fachruly Fiater
Equity Institutional Sales
(fachruly.fiater@trimegah.com)
Raditya Andyono
Equity Institutional Sales
(raditya.andyono@trimegah.com)
Meitawati
Equity Institutional Sales
(meitawati.edianingsih@trimegah.com)
Henry Sidarta
Equity Institutional Sales
(henry.sidarta@trimegah.com)
Nancy Pardede
Equity Institutional Sales
(nancy.pardede@trimegah.com)
Retail Sales Team
JAKARTA AREA
Nathanael Benny Prasetyo
Head of Retail ECM
(benny.prasetyo@trimegah.com)
Ariawan Anwar
Artha Graha, Jakarta
(ariawan.anwar@trimegah.com)
SUMATERA
Juliana Effendy
Medan, Sumatera Utara
(juliana.effendi@trimegah.com)
Windra Djulnaily
Pluit, Jakarta
(windra.djulnaily@trimegah.com)
Tantie Rivi Watie
Pekanbaru, Riau
(tantierw@trimegah.com)
Ferry Zabur
Kelapa Gading, Jakarta
(ferry.zabur@trimegah.com)
EAST INDONESIA
Sonny Muljadi
Surabaya, Jawa Timur
(sonny.muljadi@trimegah.com
Eddy Sumarli
Puri Kencana, Jakarta
(eddy.sumarli@trimegah.com)
Very Wijaya
BSD, Tangerang
(very.wijaya@trimegah.com)
Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti
Denpasar, Bali
(dwihapsari.wijayanti@trimegah.com)
Ivan Jaka Perdana
Malang, Jawa Timur
(ivan.perdana@trimegah.com)
CENTRAL JAVA, AREA
Agus Bambang Suseno
Solo, Jawa Tengah
(agus.suseno@trimegah.com)
Mariana Kusuma Wati
Semarang, Jawa Tengah
Mariana.kusuma@trimegah.com)
WEST JAVA
Asep Saepudin
Bandung, Jawa Barat
(asep.saepudin@trimegah.com)
Ariffianto
Cirebon, Jawa Barat
(ariffianto@trimegah.com)
Arifin Pribadi
Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan
(arifin.pribadi@trimegah.com)
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com
TRIM DAILY
15
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk
Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53
Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
t. +62-21 2924 9088
f. +62-21 2924 9150
www.trimegah.com
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