Public opinion, polls and the media D.S. Poornananda* ABSTRACT Polls have been making headlines in the Indian media in the recent years. Typically these polls survey citizens about their views on political issues, candidates and incumbents, their preferences about possible courses of governmental action and their general attitude toward politics and political process. In order to produce an accurate public opinion poll, a researcher must successfully perform several tasks. These include: constructing a questionnaire with properly worded and ordered questions selecting a representative sample, correctly interviewing the respondents in that sample, analyzing the data and finally drawing the correct conclusions. Sampling is the most problematic feature of public opinion polling. The dominant and preferred mode of sampling public opinion has been probability sampling. There is no particular virtue in large samples. If poorly selected, large samples provide no guarantees of accurate results. Studies have shown that preelection surveys will not have any significant impact on the vote split since the bandwagon effects and underdog effects cancel each other. The article analyses all the above key aspects. processes and practices by providing a channel through which citizens could participate in political affairs. Gallup (1865) claimed that opinion polls could provide a useful means through which voters would have a significant input into decision-making. This might be achieved by objectively measuring the views of voters and then communicating these to elected representatives. The ultimate aim of polls would be increasing the efficiency of the representative government. Opinion polling plays a significant role within the political process of most liberal democratic societies, where it is used by governments, parties and the mass media alike. Although the extent to which polls complement and improve democratic practice in countries such as India is unclear, media audiences are becoming major consumer of the results of opinion research. Substantial media coverage of polls allows citizens to compare their own beliefs with their fellow citizens and determine whether their own views are shared by others. George Gallup, who was a pioneer in using opinion polling in the United States, believed that it would serve to enhance and extend democratic The critics of opinion polling maintain that polls are simply a sop to the citizenry (Galtung, 1969; Schumpeter, 1976; Margolis, 1984). They argue that polls give people a false sense of being influenced when, in reality, political power is held and expected by a few elites who may or may not act in the public interest. Margolis (1984) claims that polls may not be the optimal way to measure public opinion on politically and socially sensitive topics. He argues that in some instances actual behaviour provides a more valid expression of public opinion than verbal responses to survey questions do. Some have also argued that polls are needed for the ideologically * Professor & Chairman, Department of Journalism and Mass Communication, Kuvempu University, Shankaraghatta – 577451, Distt. Shivmogga (Karnataka) (email ID : poornananda@yahoo.com) Media Mimansa 83 July-September 2010 hollow men who do politics like a soap-marketing campaign (Lipari, 1999; Korzi, 2000). Holding frequent polls is seen as an obsession with salesmanship rather than with governance (Henn, 2001). The advocates of polls have been criticized for completely ignoring many important features of the governing process such as dialogue, exchange, and bargaining. Some argue against opinion polls on the ground that citizens select representatives to use their best judgments, not to slavishly follow public opinion. Leo Bogart (1972) has written a provocative book where he asks what the opinions revealed by the polls are worth. He points out that many citizens have not thought about an issue until a poll taker questions them. He has argued that unwilling to appear ignorant or uncaring, citizens often give hasty and uninformed answers. According to him, such uninformed and flippant opinions cannot be considered as “public opinion”. Despite arguments against polling, the pervasiveness of polls is clearly demonstrated by their increased use in recent years. The proliferation of polls is evident in television and newspaper coverage. Typically, these polls survey citizens about their views on political issues, candidates and incumbents, their preferences about possible courses of governmental action and their general attitude toward politics and political process. Ordinary citizens’ reactions to public opinion polling are generally positive, although there are specific areas of criticism and skepticism with regard to the accuracy of survey results. In order to produce an accurate public opinion poll, a researcher must successfully perform several tasks. These include : constructing a questionnaire with properly worded and ordered questions selecting a representative sample, correctly interviewing the 84 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 respondents in that sample, analyzing the data properly and finally drawing the correct conclusions. But before any of these tasks can be performed, a researcher must ask fundamental questions. Is the proposed topic of the poll one on which citizens have genuine opinions? It is then that the topic is suitable for a public opinion survey. But if the topic is so remote from and irrelevant to citizens’ concerns that they do not hold real views on it, then any poll on the topic will measure nonattitudes rather than attitudes. Any information obtained will be suspect—even when the questions are properly worded, the sample scientifically selected and the data appropriately analyzed. Sample representativeness Sampling is the most problematic feature of public opinion polling. The requirement of the sample is that it must enable the researchers to generalize from the sample results to the broader population from which the sample was drawn. Typically, the sample is of interest because of what it reveals about the overall population and not because of the actual sample characteristics themselves. The dominant and preferred mode of sampling public opinion has been probability sampling. One of the important advantages of probability sampling is that they tend to be more representative than other kinds of samples because in large part they avoid the selection biases inherent in non-probability samples in which the investigator has discretion over who should be included in the sample. One of the major reasons for the famous failure of the polls in 1948 in the US was an error in the sampling method. Interviewers were given quotas of voters by age, race, sex and income status, but selection of subjects was left to the interviewer. Such quota samples are far better than “straw polls” that depend on voluntary response, but they are not probability samples. Quota samples favored the well-dressed and prosperous, because the interviewers found it easier to approach such people. In political terms such a poll had a Republican bias (Moore, 1991). Gallup and others had overestimated the Republican vote leading to incorrect forecast. The opinion polls switched to probability samples after 1948. Probability sampling entails procedures for selecting the sample that eliminate subjective biases about sample composition. In a country like India, stratified sampling would be more appropriate. The major advantages of stratified sampling are : a reduction in sampling error and a guarantee of representativeness with respect to variables used in stratifying. The reduction in sampling error occurs if the strata differ from each other, but internally are homogenous. Sample size is a major puzzle for Indians who wonder how a national sample of a few thousand respondents can accurately represent the views of over 1.2 billion people. While many of the surveys in the United States use a national sample size of 1500 for a population of 300 million, the sample size in India may range from 5,000 to 50,000. Given Indian diversity, a larger sample might be helpful in arriving at accurate results. The NDTV opinion polls on the performance of the UPA Government, conducted in May 2010, used a sample of 34,277 across the country. For details, see http:/www.ndtv.com/news/india/one-year-of-upa-2. Statistical and probability theory explain why small sizes suffice to generate valid results, but these theories are not very enlightening to people who lack an extensive mathematical background. Because the major cost in public opinion polling is on interviewing the selected sample, it is critical that the researcher selects a sample that suits both purposes and the budget of the project. There is no particular virtue in large samples. If poorly selected, large samples provide no guarantees of accurate results. One determinant of sample size is the amount of sampling error that can be tolerated in a poll. Sampling error is simply the difference between the estimates obtained from the sample and the true population value. Investigators often select national samples of sufficient size to generate a sampling error of about 4 percent. This means that if the sample indicates, for example, that 52 per cent of the respondents approve of Prime Minister’s foreign policy, the actual value is likely to be in the range of 48 percent to 56 percent (52 minus or plus 4 percent). How likely it is that the actual value will fall within that range is measured by the confidence level. In this example, a 95 percent confidence level would mean that in 95 out of 100 samples that might be selected, the sample would generate an estimate of approval within the range of 48 percent to 56 percent. One way to reduce a sampling error is to increase the sample size, but a larger sample entails higher costs. A sampling error of 4 percent is normally considered acceptable. Although the sampling error of the overall sample may be only 4 percent, the sampling error associated with estimates based on subsets of the sample can be substantially higher, particularly for small groups within the sample. In general, as the original sample is subdivided into increasingly smaller subsets, the sampling error becomes larger and larger (Asher, 1996). When a sample of citizens is interviewed, not every question has a response from every respondent. Some respondents may refuse to answer, others may give answers that are screened out because they reflect non-attitudes, and still others may have no opinion on the matter. In some instances, there may be a substantial difference between the total sample size and the actual number of people responding to or being included in the reporting of a particular question. Let’s assume that 2,500 citizens are asked about their vote Media Mimansa 85 July-September 2010 preferences a month before election. It is possible that only 80 percent of the sample are registered voters and only 60 percent of those registered will actually vote on the election day. If the investigator wants to report the vote preferences of likely voters only and is able to identify that group, then the effective sample has shrunk from 2500 to 1200 (0.80x0.60x2500) with an attendant increase in sampling error. Of these 1200, three percent might refuse to reveal their preferences and another 20 percent might be unsure, thereby reducing the 1200 to 900 likely voters with definite vote preferences, or just 36 percent of the original sample of 2500. This is the actual sample out of the total sample. Of the 900 voters, 400 may intend to vote for party A, 200 for party B and the remaining for other parties. It is important for the pollster to report this split and describe the subset of the sample from which it is calculated. Unless explained in detail, readers of newspapers and viewers of television would have no idea how the results came about. In what are called as pseudo polls (Orton, 1982) the representativeness of the respondents is highly questionable. For example, the print and electronic media often encourage members of their audiences to write or phone or send SMSs to express their views. But even with hundreds or thousands of replies, these straw polls are usually not representative, simply because people who voluntarily choose to participate are likely to differ in important ways from the overall population (Asher, 1998). They may be more interested, informed, and concerned about the topic at hand and thus hold views different from those of the overall population. Allowing citizens to select themselves into a survey guarantees biased results because of the motivations that lead people to participate in such surveys in the first place. Since the 1980s, magazines have regularly 86 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 published the results of surveys of their readers on several issues. Typically, magazines conduct these surveys by including the questionnaire in the magazine and encouraging readers to complete the survey and mail it back. Despite the large number of replies to a typical magazine survey, one must be very careful generalizing the results to any broader population. Selfselection presents a double problem. First, the readers and subscribers to various magazines may not be representative of the broader population of which they are members. Second, those individuals who actually complete the questionnaires may not be reflective of the magazines’ readers and subscribers in the first place. Nevertheless, the results of these surveys typically receive a lot of media coverage and probably enhance magazine sales. Such surveys are highly flawed and may give misleading portraits of public opinion. Because of loaded and unfair questions wording, self-selection biases in the respondents, outright efforts to stack the results, or other deficiencies, pseudo polls are poor ways to ascertain public opinion. Questions and response choices Answers to questions seeking opinions are more sensitive to changes in the structure, emphasis, wording and sequence and so on than are those to factual questions. The insensitivity of opinion questions does not imply instability of opinion among respondents. Rather it is an indication that opinion is many-sided. Questions asked in different ways will seem to get at different aspects of the opinion. If they result in different answers, it is largely because respondents are, in effect, answering different questions. When questions are poorly formulated and fundamentally flawed, very little analysis can be done. Use of a loaded word or an inflammatory phrase can affect the pattern of response to a survey question. Individuals and groups that have vested interests can easily construct questions that will generate desired responses. The response alternatives they provide to the interviewees can also help them achieve the intended result. If a middle choice is not listed as one of the choices, then fewer citizens will opt for that choice and this can alter the interpretation of a poll. Bad question wording may occur when polls are conducted by interested parties whose aim is to generate specific responses. In many cases, polling organizations have arrived at divergent conclusions simply because they employed different questions on a particular topic. Less obvious than the impact of question wording is the effect on responses of the order and context in which specific questions are placed. For example, a survey, in which the popularity of the prime minister is measured after a series of questions dealing with scandals in his administration and difficulties with the economy, is likely to get negative reactions. The context in which a particular survey is embedded can help shape responses to that item. A typical survey includes many questions and the placement of a particular question can affect the responses to it. Questions should be worded in unbiased, fair, and straightforward fashion. Even when the sponsor has no axe to grind question wording choices can be very consequential to the results obtained. Studies have shown that survey questions, even apparently straight forward ones, must be adequately pre-tested before they are included in an actual poll (Fowler, 1992). Ambiguous questions are to be avoided at all costs. If an ambiguous word creeps in, different people will understand the question differently and will, in effect, be answering different questions. Vague questions encourage vague answers. Using words and phrases like ‘kind of’, ‘fairly’, ‘generally’, ‘often’, ‘many’, ‘much the same’, ‘on the whole’, ‘frequently’, ‘occasionally’, ‘rarely’, ‘recently’, ‘in the last few years’ can be ambiguous because different people have different understanding of these words. The presence of non-attitudes is one of the simplest yet most perplexing problems in public polling. Too often in a survey context, people will respond to questions about which they have no genuine attitudes or opinions. Even worse, the analyst treats the non-attitude responses as if they represent actual public opinions. Under these circumstances, a misleading portrait of public opinion can emerge. That is, no distinction is made between people with real views on an issue and those whose responses simply reflect their desire to appear in an interview situation as informed citizens. It is often difficult to differentiate between genuine attitude holders and persons merely expressing non-attitudes (Asher, 1995). An interview is a social situation in which a respondent interacts in person or by telephone with an interviewer the respondent does not know. Few people in such circumstances want to admit that they are uninformed particularly on an issue others might expect them to be informed. One of the strategies is make it socially acceptable for respondents to say they are unfamiliar with the topic of the question. This response would result in the question being skipped. Another strategy is to employ screening or filter questions to separate likely attitude holders from non-attitude respondents. These strategies minimize the number of responses that are superficial reactions to the interview stimulus. The response alternatives included in an item affect the extent of non-attitudes. Research on the effects of including a middle choice in the response alternatives shows that including a middle option typically generates about 25 percent more Media Mimansa 87 July-September 2010 noncommittal responses. Bishop (1987) has demonstrated how the presence or absence of a middle response alternative can affect survey responses. Based on a series of experiments, Bishop’s work confirmed earlier research in finding that citizens are much more likely to choose the middle alternative when it is included in the question than when it is omitted. Moreover, simply mentioning the middle category in the preface of a survey question will encourage respondents to select that option even when it is not listed among the response alternatives. People who select a middle alternative when it is offered would not necessarily answer the question in the same way as other respondents if forced to choose between the polar alternatives when the middle option is not provided. The interpretation of a “don’t know” response can be especially problematic since ‘don’t know’ can mean many different things. For some people, ‘don’t know’ simply reflects the absence of a real attitude on the topic, but for other people it may represent an inability to choose among contending positions. Respondents may be too insecure to take a stance or they may decline to state their opinions out of a strong sense of privacy or because they do not want to offend anybody. Some respondents may want to hasten the completion of the interview by saying ‘don’t know’ thereby avoiding follow-up questions. The higher the level of education of respondents, the less likely they give ‘no opinion’ replies (Converse, 1997). Respondents with cognitive sophistication— less formal education and limited vocabularies—are more likely to be influenced by the order of responses. One must be sensitive to the potential distortion and even manipulation of responses that might occur because of how the response choices are presented. Is it a good idea to force responses into polar categories and minimize middle or neutral answers? Or is it better to encourage people to choose the middle 88 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 position? The answer, of course, is that it depends. If people have genuine attitudes, then the public opinion researcher wants those attitudes clearly expressed. The inclusion of a middle category in such a situation might result in cautious citizens opting for the middle position, particularly on controversial issues where they might not want to reveal their true opinions to the interviewer. Yet the exclusion of a middle category might lead people with weak or nonexistent opinions on an issue to choose one of the genuine response options thereby creating false impressions of genuine attitudes (Asher, 1995). Some times hypothetical situations are presented to citizens and then they are asked to react to these situations. More often than not, the information obtained is of dubious utility because the hypothetical situations have forced the respondents into a world that has little real meaning for them. Some surveys are commissioned by public and private bodies to address specific concerns. Commissioned surveys are likely to be high quality enterprises mainly because the sponsors have a genuine need for accurate information to address some organizational goal or problem. Many other groups, however, conduct surveys for a different reason—not to address a public concern scientifically and objectively, but instead to promote a certain position and to convince the public of the wisdom of that stand. To that end, a survey is designed to yield desired results, this is most often accomplished by the use of highly loaded questions, although more subtle methods are also used. Interpreting election polls Most election polls are sponsored by the mass media. Polls are central focus of their election coverage. The use of polls in reporting elections is seen as encouraging a horse-race mentality among the media instead of focusing on issues and the candidates’ qualifications. According to Moser and Kalton (1985) “election forecasts, although the most publicized of polling activities, are in a sense the least valuable, there is after all, little point in knowing approximately today what will be known accurately tomorrow—apart from the fact that forecasts of any kind appeal to our sporting instincts and that it is of some value to the parties to know the trends in opinion” (p.18-19). For the media that treat elections as sporting events, the dominant theme becomes who is ahead and who is behind, who is gaining and who is falling back, as measured by the polls (Broh, 1980; Asher, 1992). Many a time, media polls go beyond recording levels of support for the candidates by addressing topics such as patterns of support for the candidates among groups of voters defined by their demographic characteristics and issue stances. There has been widespread speculation about how polls affect voters. Some argue that polls that show one candidate or party ahead of another increase the incentives for supporters of the trailing candidate or party to change their preference and climb on to the winning candidate’s or party’s bandwagon. Others emphasize underdog effects. They claim that sympathetic voters rally around the candidate or party the polls show to be losing. The bandwagon effect would require that leading candidates consistently increase their margin, while the underdog effect predicts that the losing candidate or party will inexorably gain on the leaders. These simple kinds of effects have not shown up consistently in surveys (Marsh, 1984). Some studies have shown that preelection surveys could not have any significant impact on the vote split since the bandwagon effects and underdog effects cancel each other. Various practitioners of polling and survey research have become concerned about what they see as increased disinterest, skepticism, cynicism, or even hostility toward the polls. To combat these problems, Black (1991) advocates greater sensitivity toward the questions that citizens may be asking about how the entire survey was carried out. The Press Council of India has suggested that whenever the newspapers publish prepoll surveys, they should take care to preface them conspicuously by indicating the institutions which have carried such surveys, the individuals and organizations which have commissioned the surveys, the size and nature of sample selected, the method of selection of the sample for the findings and the possible margin of error in the findings. The media usually provide information about date of the interviews, the method of data collection, the size of the actual sample, and the sampling error of the overall sample. The more information that is provided about the methodology of a poll, the better consumers can judge the soundness of the poll results. All reports of surveys released for public should provide information with regard to sponsorship of the survey, dates of interview, method of obtaining the interview, population that was sampled, size of the sample, size and description of the sub-sample, if the survey report relies primarily on less than the total sample, complete wording of questions upon which the release is based and the percentages upon which conclusions are based. Without access to the complete results of polls, citizens cannot easily evaluate how well the media report on the technical aspects of polling. It is even more problematic for them to evaluate how well the media describe and interpret the substance of public opinion polls. Because interpretation of poll data can be highly judgmental and value laden, it may be difficult to demonstrate that one particular interpretation is superior to another Media Mimansa 89 July-September 2010 except in cases where obvious misreading of the data have occurred or where blatant biases have been built into the analysis. Even simple description can pose a problem if time and space constraints force the media to cover only a subset of the items on a topic. One of the criticisms against the media is that they promote the polls to such a position of prominence that the polls themselves become regular topics for news stories. Media in their role as sponsors of polls have gone into the business of creating the news rather than simply reporting it. More and more media have developed their own polling capabilities, and in order to justify the sizable expenditure they may increasingly report poll-based stories that are not newsworthy in the traditional sense. The timing of the pre-election poll influences its accuracy, the closer to the election the poll is conducted, the more accurate its results are likely to be (Crespi, 1988). Late polls can capture the effects of last minute events and campaign activities that may influence outcomes. In contrast, at the time of early polls voters have little information about the candidates, their attitudes about those candidates are highly volatile with the acquisition of some new information about the contenders. An investigator examining poll results has tremendous leeway in deciding which items to analyze, which simple subsets or breakdowns to present, and how to interpret the statistical results. The investigator may emphasize the results from one question, perhaps because of space and time constraints and the desire to keep matters simple, or because particular results best support the analyst’s own policy and ignore subgroups whose responses deviate from the overall pattern. Time and space limitations or the investigator’s own preferences may influence these choices. Besides, two investigators may interpret identical poll results 90 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 in sharply different ways depending on the perspectives and values they bring to their data analysis. Analyzing and interpreting data are not automatic objective processes, but instead entail a high degree of subjectivity and judgment. Subjectivity may not mean deliberate bias or distortion but simple professional judgments about the importance and relevance of information. Accuracy in exit polls Exit polls are interviews with voters as they leave polling booths. Pollsters not only ask voters for whom they voted but also collect some information on the issue positions and demographic characteristics of the respondents. Exit polls are conducted by major news organizations to predict and explain the outcomes of parliamentary and assembly elections. Since exit polls are polls of actual voters, they avoid the enduring problem faced by pre-election surveys where determining who will actually vote is a problem. One of the advantages of exit polls is that they can be quickly tabulated. Almost instantaneous predictions or descriptions of selection outcomes are possible. This advantage has become a central selling point for exit polls as television channels compete with each other to be the first to declare the results. While some scholars have argued that exit polls generate rich information that enables both journalists and social scientists to understand better the factors that help shape the voters’ choices (Mitofsky, 1992), others have argued that exit polls do more harm than good to the political process (Orton, 1982; Moser & Kalton, 1985; Ray, 2007). Although no significant impact of the exit polls on the outcome of the elections has been established, it is believed that they will influence voting behaviour. Some claim that exit polls cause citizens to lose confidence in the electoral process. The impact of exit polls on voting becomes a matter of debate when an election is held in phases as happened in 2004. If a rigorous sampling and estimation process is followed, then the “results” are also known with some accuracy long before voters in the subsequent phases vote (Reddy, 2004). The Indian experience has shown that exit polls are not always accurate. What went wrong with the prediction in 2004 has not been fully analyzed. Although the impact of the 2004 exit polls could not be explained they triggered stock market crash (Mukherjee, 2004) even when two more phases of polling were yet to be completed. There was a virtual “bloodbath” at the stock markets on April 27, 2004 with the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index (Sensex) crashing by 213 points at close of trading, the biggest fall after March 13, 2001 when the last stock scam broke out. The fall was attributed to the totally unexpected exit poll results which were pointing towards a hung Parliament. The market had assumed that the National Democratic Alliance would come back to power. Results of the exit polls indicating a hung Parliament, therefore, came as a shock. The declaration of the election results showed that the exit polls were off the mark. Most of the television channels and newspapers projected that the National Democratic Alliance would win. Most market-men had been caught off-guard by the exit poll results. Unlike the exit polls of 2004, the 2009 polls predicted a clear lead for the United Progressive Alliance over the National Democratic Alliance. Media had learnt from their 2004 fiasco and had adopted a rigorous sampling procedure. But, the question remains as to what purpose do exit polls serve other than creating dramatic political news if they are announced just three days before the counting of votes begins. The Election Commission of India has banned declaration of exit poll results until voting is completed. According to the guidelines of the EC, in case of a multi-phased election and in elections of different states, no result of any opinion or exit poll should be published, publicised or disseminated by any media at any time during the period starting from 48 hours till the poll is concluded in all the phases in all states. But questions remain as to what extent predictions of final outcome will help strengthen democracy. Conclusion The existence of several polls provides the stimulus of competition and thus encourages developments in opinion poll methodology. To the pollster, the value of election forcasts is that they offer one of the few opportunities of demonstrating that their methods are sound. Success in predicting elections is in many ways an unfair criterion of the value of survey methods generally, for this sort of forecasting faces special problem, notably the uncertainty of the voting turnout and of what the undecided voter will do. The 2004 experience has shaken confidence in opinion polls and perhaps in survey generally. It is important that it should be subjected to high level investigation so that such errors do not occur again. The media which conduct opinion polls should provide information with regard to the population that was sampled, method of obtaining the interview, size of the sample, complete wording of questions and the percentages upon which conclusions are based. Then only criticism and skepticism with regard to the accuracy of survey results can be addressed. l l REFERENCES Asher, H. (1992). Presidential elections and American politics. Pacific Grove, CL: Brooks/ Cole. Asher, H. (1995). Polling and the public: What every citizen should know. Washington, D.C: Media Mimansa 91 July-September 2010 l Congressional Quarterly Press. Bishop, G. (1987). Experiments with middle response alternatives in survey questions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 51 (Summer), 209-218. Bogart, L. (1972). Silent politics, polls and the awareness of public opinion. New York: WileyInterscience. Broh, C.A. (1980). Horse-race journalism: Responding to polls in 1976 Presidential Election. Public Opinion Quarterly, 44 (Winter), 514-529. Cantril, A. (1991). The opinion connection: Polling, politics, and the press. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press. Converse, J.M. (1997). Predicting no opinion in the polls. Public Opinion Quarterly, 60 (Winter). 515-530. Crespi, I. (1988). Preelection policy: Sources of accuracy and error. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Fowler, F.J. (1992). How unclear terms affect survey data. Public Opinion Quarterly, 56 (Summer), 218-231. Gallup, G. (1965). Polls and the Political Process: Past, Present and Future. Public Opinion Quarterly, 29 (Summer), 545-549. Galtung J. (1969). Theory and methods of social research. New York: Columbia University Press. George Gallup and the rhetoric of scientific democracy. Communication Monographs, 64, 161–179. Henn, M. (2001). Public Opinion and political affairs in East Europe. Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 17 ( 3), 52-70. Kent, M. L., Harrison, T.R. and Taylor, M. (2006). ‘A critique of Internet polls as symbolic representation and pseudo-events’. Communication Studies, 57 (3), 299-315. Korzi, M. J. (2000). Lapsed memory? The roots 92 Media Mimansa l l l l l l l l l l l l July-September 2010 l l l l l l l l l l l l l l of American public opinion research. Polity, 33(1), 49–75. Lipari, L. (1999). Polling as ritual. Journal of Communication, 49(1), 83–102. Margolis, M. (1984). Public opinion, polling, and political behaviour. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences, 472 (March), 61-71. Marsh, C. (1984). Do polls affect what people think? In Charles F.T & Elizabeth M. (Eds), Surveying subjective phenomenon (pp. 565591). New York: Russell Sage Foundation. McMillan, A. (1999). Exit polls and all that. Frontline, 16, (22), 25-26. Mitofsky, W.J. (1992). What went wrong with exit polling. The Public Perspective, 5 (March/ April), 17. Moore, D.S. (1991). Statistics : Concepts and controversies. New York: W.H. Freeman and Company. Moser, S.C. & Kalton, G. (1985). Survey methods in social investigation. London: Heinmann Educational Books. Mukherjee, A. (2004). Exit poll predictions trigger stock market crash. The Hindu, April 28, p.1 Orton, B. (1982). Phony polls: The pollster’s Nemesis. Public Opinion Quarterly, 5 (June/ July), 56-60. Pandy, P. (2009). Celebrities and the law. New Age Herald, July 05, p.4. Ray, S. (2007). Poll vault. Business Line. May 25, 2010. p.8. Reddy, C.R. (2004). Against the grain: The case against exit polls. The Hindu, May 02, p.10. Schumpeter J.A. (1976). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. London: George Allen & Unwin. Worcester, R. (1991). British Public Opinion. Oxford: Blackwell.Hogan, J. M. (1997). Researching new media — Complications, illusions and challenges Dev Vrat Singh* ABSTRACT The new media is the future of media. Researching a media that is constantly evolving at a very fast pace is really a difficult and challenging job. Researches in the field of new media are gaining popularity among media academicians world over. However, in Indian context, very few scholars are taking serious note of this. This research article is an endeavor to collect various research areas in new media at one place and discuss about complications, illusions and challenges faced by the scholars. Besides these, the concept of new media and its nature has also been discussed with a hope that it would provide a very basic knowledge about the emerging world of new media and encourage media scholars to explore it. Introduction When Canadian literary scholar, Marshal Mcluhan wrote his eminent book “Understanding Media : The Extensions of Man” in 1964, he was not aware of the fact that the concepts he was propounding will become reality within a span of few decades. Two most fashionable and widely quoted terms given by Mcluhan were - Medium is Message and Global Village. In fact, he was discussing these terms in the context of electronic media, mainly radio and television, and their impact on society and culture. He proclaimed that new forms of media transform our experience of ourselves and our society and this influence is ultimately more important than the content of specific messages. He also used the term global village to refer to the new form of social organization emerging as instantaneous electronic media tie the entire world into one great social, political and cultural 1 system. Convergence is the new buzzword in new media technology that made it possible to communicate at a very fast pace. There are three basic technologies which are mainly responsible for the convergence and emergence of new media. Firstly, communication Satellites made global broadcasting possible. Secondly, digitization ensured unified platform for data storage, data retrieval and data processing. And, lastly, through optical fiber, we could send and receive huge quantity of data in never-before speed and ease. What is new media? Defining new media is as difficult as researching this phenomenon. Known by several names – digital media, cyber media, web media, online media, internet media, virtual media, convergence media—this technological occurrence is believed to be the future of media. Without sticking to a particular media, technology or mode of communication, academicians world over have agreed to name this as new media. This word gives glamorous connotation to something new. It covers the whole gamut of things that is related to this debate. 1. Baran and Davis (2006), Mass Communication Theory : Foundation, Ferment and Future, Thomson Wadsworth (Indian Edition), p.302-305 *Reader, Department of Journalism and Mass Communication, Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak, Haryana (email ID : vrat.dev@gmail.com) Media Mimansa 93 July-September 2010 ‘New media’ has gained currency as a term because of its useful inclusiveness. It avoids, at the expense of its generality and its ideological overtones, the reductions of some of its alternatives. It avoids the emphasis on purely technical and formal definition, as in ‘digital’ or ‘electronic’ media; the stress on a single, ill-defined and contentious quality as in ‘interactive media’, or the limitation to one set of machines and practices as in ‘computer-mediated communication, 2 (CMC). New media is a term meant to encompass the emergence of digital, computerized or networked information and communication technologies in the latter part of the 20th century. Most technologies described as “new media” are digital, often having characteristics of being manipulable, net-workable, 3 dense, compressible and impartial. Nature of new media To understand the concept of new media, it would be wise to compare it with the old media in reference to textual experience, genre, textual form, technology, patterns of organization, production, distribution, and consumption of computer-mediated communications. New media is truly global medium not only in terms of consumption of its content but production and distribution also. Inherently, it is digital and provides a unified platform for various kinds of data i.e. audio, video, visuals, graphics, animation and texts. Being convergence media, we can call it a multimedia also where we can work with many media simultaneously. The level of interactivity is extremely high and instant in new media. This feature makes new media more active that gives its use enormous opportunities to participate in content formation. The commentators, therefore, call this medium more democratic and user friendly. All earlier media provide facility of one or two levels of communication. For example, telephone is used for interpersonal communication only while radio and television is for doing mass communication. Whereas, in new media we can communicate at different levels at the same time. Mailing is for interpersonal communication, social community sites do group communication, blogs are for public communication and web sites are doing mass communication. This makes the new media a medium of multiple communications. Hypertextuality is another feature that gives new media a very unique user-friendly shape. Moreover the model of information flow in new media is quite different from the older media. Interpersonal communication is one-to-one, group communication is one-to-many, and mass communication is some-tomany, while in new media there is a paradigm shift to the model of many-to-many communication. New media first time provides a virtual space where anybody can be visible for free or lesser amount. In this way, new media is playing the role of great equalizer. Emerging areas of research If new media has come up with umpteen opportunities, it has also created much confusion. It has created a havoc of technology among the audience. Lots of new terminologies and concepts arise every day out of new media putting up a constant challenge before academicians and users to understand and react. For new media researchers, emailing, blogging, community sites, bulletin boards, chatting rooms, you tube, virtual life, Wikipedia, Amazon, eBay online games, telecommunications, e-journalism may be of wide interest. 2. Lister, M. Dovey, J. Giddings, S. Grant, I. and Kelly, K. (2009), New Media—A Critical Introduction, Routledge, page 11-12 3. Wikipedia.com 94 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 l l l Uses and gratifications researches : Just like any other media, lot of studies have been conducted about the usage patterns of internet and during nineties many scholars across the globe tried to find out what the users do with internet. The main queries were how much new medium is used for what purpose. What are the timings of usage and what are the user’s experiences. Later on it was also dig up that what is the gratification level of users in terms of services they avail from the new media. The study of the level of satisfaction among users is useful for the evolution of better websites and web-based services. At the primary stage, scholars also debated over the definition of internet user. Like what should be the minimum level of usages for a person to be called internet user. Interactivity studies : The word 'interactivity' is the most admired term that has been researched in relation to the new media. It is claimed that new media is first ever media of this kind which can boast of maximum level of interactivity as far as user’s interface is concerned. Many studies world over have been conducted to check the models, level and nature of interactivity in various websites. As the term interactivity is closely associated with the democratic and participative media, scholars tried to find out to what extent new media is providing opportunities for its users to participate in content production. How many facilities of customization are available to the internet users? What are the level of involvement and attitudes of users towards any website? Psychological research : Having increased hours before computer screens, new media is impacting heavily on the psychological and physical health of its users. Especially in western countries, scholars of human psychology are worried about internet addiction among its users. Lots of case studies are being conducted to evaluate the mental state of heavy users of internet and video games, their perceptions of virtual and real world of experiences, relationship between internet usage habits and physical diseases arising among new media users. Interestingly, most of these researches are inter-disciplinary in nature and being done by non-media scholars. l Socio-political researches : As the new media is reshaping human relations, social behavior, impacting social institutions, changing political systems and processes, sociologists and political scientists have started researching new media with their own paradigms. How mobiles and new media devices are intervening into human interaction, facilitating faster communication, creating complex social networks, changing patterns of democracy and specially elections and making possible the global presence of a person are some of the issues which can be researched. Social community sites like Facebook, Orkut, bebo, linkedin etc. are being studied for analyzing the networking patterns of modern society. While blog journalism is making news in American Presidential elections and attracting scholars for studies, exploratory researches about interpersonal communication through mobile phones are also gaining recognition among media scholars. l Journalism studies : Since the new media has become a powerful medium of journalism also, online journalism is another popular stream of Media Mimansa 95 July-September 2010 media research. Some scholars are analyzing the content of news websites and blogs while studies about citizen journalism are also gaining momentum. In these researches, usually the questions are: how the news is presented on websites, how this differs from other media, what are the features of designing and packaging of news in new media, what are the navigational features of news websites, how old media is changing its way of doing things under the pressure of online newspapers. l l l 96 Studies related to digital divide : This term has been widely discussed in reference to the impact of new media over diverse communities in the world. New media opened up enormous potential for creating unified and networked society and theoreticians hailed new media as great equalizer but very soon it was realized that new media is creating digital divide among various societies on the basis of technology and information ownerships. Especially in developing countries, scholars focused new media studies upon the analysis of nature and extent of digital divide. Gender studies : New media is the largest provider of pornography, online games and various kinds of entertainment. Lots of researches are being conducted about pornography and video games in gender traditions. Representation of female body and image is prime concern in this stream. Regulation studies : New media has posed umpteen challenges of privacy, regulation and surveillance before the society. Increasing cases of hacking and sabotaging viruses, spyware, worms etc. have made it impossible to function fearlessly. Moreover, governments world over Media Mimansa July-September 2010 are trying hard to police the online activities. Common user is soft target for cyber crimes as our police system is yet not prepared to combat this. Scholars are studying the habits and modus operandi of hackers just to provide with solutions to better surveillance. l Philosophical researches : After the advent of new media the concept of time and space has undergone a lot of change. Hence it is imperative for the philosophers to readjust the existing theories and concepts in the context of changing global information and communication environment. New media demands altogether a new kind of human being from its users having global perspectives and ideology suitable for whole nature and human world. Lots of theoretical work is also needed to be done in this direction. Complications with new media Researching contemporary media is more difficult than the media of the past. New media is ever growing and media-in-flux, therefore it is more complicated and hazardous to study such a subject that has not evolved substantially yet or is still evolving. New media does not have a very clear picture in terms of definitions of various aspects of the subject. But perhaps that’s the situation which humbly invites scholars to draw the clear picture and establish the facts scientifically and help growing the new media as a subject. For example, till now sociologists had studied a lot about the social behaviour of teenagers but now with the new mobile phones loaded with internet facilities this has become more multifarious, untraceable and invisible, hence difficult to study and analyse. Interestingly, academicians have not agreed upon a single definition of new media and the reason Challenges of new media research is quite obvious. The picture of new media is very hazy and ever changing that needs to be redefined every In most of the cases, content of new media is under scrutiny for correlating it to the views, habits and needs of its users. But researchers face difficulty when it comes to the analysis of content. Ever updating content of digital streaming media makes it very difficult for scholars to record the content for deeper analysis. There are three ways to record and store the data : moment. New media has posed a challenge before the existing communication models. Some academicians refuse to accept it as a medium of mass communication. They say it is merely a huge library of data available online and user is at liberty to pick and choose out of it. Moreover, there is no broadcast model like radio and television. Actually, these theoreticians are failing to appreciate new features of streaming new media. l Saving on the hard drive : The easiest way to store the data from the net is to save it as-it-is on the hard drive—text, visuals, animation, audio etc. Researcher may suggest saving it on the computer from the internet with the date of retrieval and website URL. But some of the web pages and files available on the net are not allowed to be saved by the owner. Most of the times when we save the web page with ‘save as’ option it stores all useless data attached to it online which occupies a lot of space. Moreover on many occasions, stored web pages later on need specific fonts, software and plug-ins to display the content properly. In the absence of technical knowledge, researcher may end up nowhere. l Taking print-outs : Researcher may take printouts of the data as it is available on the net so that it can be referred back as and when required. This may be a costly affair especially when the amount of data is huge. Moreover, audio-video data cannot be stored through this mode. l Taking digital image with camera : There is one more way to store the data for research, take out the snaps from the computer screen with the help of a domestic digital still camera and save it as image format. This is useful where the Obviously it is a matter of great challenge to research a media that is yet to consolidate its characteristics. The universe of new media is very large and virtual in nature. Researchers, therefore, always face a problem in locating it geographically. Moreover, if the universe is decided, the very next problem will arise how to decide the sample size and how to select the sample. Once you decide the size of sample, the process of data collection is to begin and here also researcher may easily get headache while he/she finds a huge amount of data on net. The biggest challenge before a scholar is to check the authenticity of new media text. Academicians call this phenomenon ‘information overload’. The best way in this regard is to use information from the official websites only. Although internet research has become popular very quickly, the popularity of the methodology does not mean that the methodology is inherently valid and reliable. Internet can be a highly cost effective tool to approach the respondents across the globe. At the same time, researchers do know who answers an internet questionnaire. Moreover it’s very difficult to determine if the sample is representative of the population from 4 which the sample was selected. 4. Wimmer, Roger D. and Dominick, Joseph R. (2005), Mass Media Research - An introduction, Thomson Wadsworth, p. 436-439. Media Mimansa 97 July-September 2010 number of pages is small. But sometimes the size of a web page is much larger than the size of the screen. One has to crawl down to the end to see it completely; in that case, one has to take more than one snap for one web page. Last but not the least Internet has happened to be the largest reference point for researchers. Many times scholars quote the text available on the net and don’t know how to give the reference to that in their paper. Here is a format recommended by the American Psychological Association (2000, October 12). Retrieved January 3, 2001, from http://www.apa.org/journals/webref.html REFERENCES 1. Lister, M. Dovey, J. Giddings, S. Grant, I. and Kelly, K. (2009), New Media-A Critical Introduction, Routledge 2. Burg, Jennifer (2009), The Science of Digital 98 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 Media, Pearson Prentice Hall 3. Balnaves, M. Donald, S.H. and Shoesmith, B. (2009), Media Theories and Approaches–A Global Perspective, Palgrave Macmillan 4. Baran and Davis (2006), Mass Communication Theory: Foundation, Ferment and Future, Thomson Wadsworth (Indian Edition), p.302305 5. Rubin, R.B., Rubin, A.M., Haridakis P.M. Piele L.J. (2010), Communication Research– Strategies and Sources, Wadsworth Cengage Learning 6. Wimmer, Roger D. and Dominick Joseph R. (2005), Mass Media Research – An introduction, Thomson Wadsworth 7. Prasad, Kiran (2009), e-Journalism, New Media and News Media (Edited), B.R. Publishing Corporation, Delhi Public relations research : Some perspectives Waheeda Sultana* ABSTRACT Research in PR has become necessary in today's complex society. Most public relations practitioners consider research as important a tool to them as a stethoscope is to a doctor. Without research, practitioner is reduced to taking, at best, educated guesses regarding the problem and potential intervention programs, and thus runs a greater risk of being unable to predict outcomes accurately. But management today demands more–measurement, analysis, and evaluation at every stage of the PR process. It is necessary for the PR practitioner to understand - the attitudes, hopes, fears, concerns, frustrations - of various relevant publics. This paper examines the different methods of research used by a PR practitioner such as surveys, focus group interviews, opinion polls and employee attitude surveys in the conduct of public relations work. Organizations are thereby prevented from wasting time, effort and money in attacking problems that don't really exist. Public Relations (PR) is the art of managing communication between an organization and its key publics to build, manage and sustain a positive image. Public relations involves evaluation of public attitudes and public opinions; formulation and implementation of an organization’s procedures and policy regarding communication with its publics; coordination of communications programmes; developing rapport and goodwill through a two-way communication process; and fostering a positive relationship between an organization and its public. Public Relations often involves news management—optimizing good news and forestalling bad news. Equally, good public relations managers conduct “damage control” when a disaster occurs, gathering the facts and assessing the situation to prepare appropriate information to be offered to the mass media. Research in PR — the origin The origin of PR research actually dates to 1920. Bernays, nephew of Sigmund Freud, laid the ground work for a social – scientific approach to public relations in his book, Crystallizing Public Opinion, the first ever on public relations. His book also signals a long standing connection between PR and Public Opinion research. The role of research has become increasingly important in public relations. Research is the systematic collection and interpretation of information to increase understanding. “You cannot practice public relations today - successfully or effectively - without research”. It is essential to any PR activity and is the beginning of a process that seeks to bring about a specific objective. A PR activity is like a journey. The better prepared a person is for journey, the more pleasant it will be. For practitioners, the better prepared they are for a PR activity, the more productive it will be for the organization or client. Cutlip, Center and Broom emphasize that * Associate Professor, Deptt. of Mass Communication and Journalism, Mangalore University, Mangalagangotri-574199 (Karnataka). (email ID : sultanawaheeda@yahoo.com) Media Mimansa 99 July-September 2010 methodical systematic research is the foundation of effective public relations. Without research, public relations practitioners are restricted to asserting that they understand the situation and can provide a solution, while, with research, they can put forward proposals clearly backed up with evidence to support them. Research is the ‘scientific alterative to tenacity, authority and intuition’. Professor William Baxter of Marquette University says “most public relations practitioners consider research as important a tool to them as a stethoscope is to a doctor. Almost every communication process or project calls for varying degrees of research: fact-finding, opinion assessment, message testing, planning and evaluation.” Donald K. Wright has pointed out, research is important because public relations people are finding that research is part and parcel of their jobs when they offer communication strategy, counsel on communication problems, and educate clients as to the best public relations strategies or actions. Without research, practitioners are reduced to making, at best, educated guess regarding the problem and potential intervention programmes, and thus run a greater risk of being unable to predict outcomes accurately. Without research, the practitioner cannot assess where public relations programme begins, how it evolves, or what the end product will be. Quite simply, without research you cannot demonstrate the efficacy of your programme. Conducting PR research A considerable portion of the research on public relations has been conducted in private, corporate or agency settings. Most of the industry research is proprietary in nature, meaning that the findings are confidential and not typically available to the public. 100 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 There are many reasons for maintaining this confidentiality including a concern over how other organizations might use this information. Proprietary research is also sometimes related for publicity purposes. Occasionally, corporate research is made public through academic journals and conferences. Every PR programme should begin with research. Most don’t, which is not correct. Because PR is still misunderstood as an amorphous function to many. Public relations recommendations must be grounded in hard data whenever possible. Instinct intuition and gut feelings all remain important in the conduct of public relations work, but management today demands more—measurement, analysis and evaluation at every stage of the PR process. In an era of scarce resources, management wants facts and statistics from public relations professionals to show that their efforts contribute not only to overall organizational effectiveness but also to the bottom line—why should we introduce a new employee newspaper? What should it say and cost? - Questions like these must be answered through research. Today, companies don’t want to spend money unless it fetches them results. Public Relations programmes must contribute to meeting business objectives. That means that research must be applied to help segment market targets, analyse audience preferences and dislikes and determine which message might be most effective with the audiences. Research then becomes essential in helping realize management goals. Why research is necessary? Early research helps to determine the current situation, prevalent attitudes, and difficulties that the programme faces. Later research examines the programme’s success, along with what else still needs to be done. Research at both points in the process is critical. Research can prevent organizations from wasting time, effort and money in attacking problems that don’t really exist. For example, several years ago, the American Dairy Association was planning a multimillion dollar campaign to tell Americans that milk is not a major contributor to cholesterol in the diet. Earlier, survey research by a public relations firm showed that most Americans do not associate milk with high cholesterol. Research can save an organization from costly mistakes simply by ascertaining public perceptions rather than guessing at them. Research can provide the facts upon which public relations programme will be based. A good example is the way in which the petroleum industry successfully changed the public perception that oil companies are owned by a handful of very wealthy individuals and families. This is stereotype of course. It began in the days of John D. Rockefeller Sr. Since there were no industry wide data on ownership, it was necessary to research the question. It was found that six of the largest oil companies had more than two million stockholders and more than 11,750,000 indirect stockholders. The dissemination of these data did a great deal to modify the public stereotype about ownership of oil companies. Methods of public relations research Professionals in public relations use different methods of research such as surveys, focus group interviews and opinion polls. Survey research is one of the most frequently used research methods in PR. Surveys can be applied to broad societal issues, such as determining public opinion about a political candidate, or to the most minute organization problems, such as whether shareholders like the quarterly report. Surveys most often involve the use of structured questionnaires and a mix of open and closed ended questioners. They can also be administered in a variety of ways. Surveys can be taken over the telephone, by mail or face to face. Sampling Sampling is the second basic issue in survey research which involves determining the set of individuals to collect information from. There are two basic approaches to this problem. They are: drawing sample and taking a census. In a census, one surveys everyone in the population. The process is very expensive and time consuming. But it does have several advantages, especially when public is fairly small. It means information collected from all members of the public which is often important from PR point of view. For example, employee attitude surveys are generally based on a census in order to convince each employee that management is interested in what he or she has to say. Sampling involves selecting a subset of the population and making generalization from that sample to the broader population. The logic behind survey sampling is much the same as in taking a blood sample. One need not drain all the blood from a patient to determine his or her blood type. The same is true in survey research. One need not interview all members of a population to determine the prevailing opinions on some issue facing the population. The key is to obtain a truly representative sample. The sample or selected target group must be representative of the total public whose views are sought. There are two approaches used in obtaining a sample: probability sampling and non-probability sampling. Probability sampling is what one might commonly view as the ‘scientific method’, while non- Media Mimansa 101 July-September 2010 probability sample is a more informal approach. Probability sampling is a technique in which all members of a population have a ‘known chance of being selected’. The real power of probability sampling is that it enables the researcher to make statistical inferences from the sample to the broader population. In non-probability sampling, the units of a sample are chosen so that each unit in the population does not have a calculable non-zero probability of being selected in the sample. Systematic sampling method is somewhat easier and less expensive. One begins by developing a list of population rather than selecting each person randomly. However, one selects only a random starting point in the list. To illustrate, suppose a researcher desires a sample of 100 and has a population of 10,000. In a systematic sample, he merely selects a random starting point from the first 100 persons and then picks every 100th person thereafter (i.e. 10,000/100=N). Technically, the systematic sample is not a perfect probability sampling plan–not everyone has an equal probability of being selected since inclusion is based on the random starting point. A stratified sample is used when the researcher wants to be sure to include persons from different segments (i.e. strata) of the population. In public relations, a researcher might use a stratified sampling plan if he or she wishes to include from several distinct publics. This method does require some prior knowledge of the population. Specifically, the researcher must know the size and nature of the population strata to be sampled. In cluster sampling, a researcher first divides the population into several large groupings known as clusters. A cluster is often defined geographically such as a country, city or election district. From there, the researcher can use either simple random or systematic 102 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 sampling to select the actual persons to be interviewed. In public relations, primary purpose of poll data is to get indications of attitudes and opinions and not to predict elections. A sample of 250 to 500 will give relatively accurate data with 5 or 6 per cent variance. For example, the public relations person asks employees what they want to read in the company magazine. Data seveals 60 percent saying they would like to read more news about opportunities for promotion. If, only 100 employees are properly surveyed, it does not matter. If the percentage is 50 or 70 large percentage, in either case it would sufficiently justify an increase in news stories about advancement opportunities. Gallop polls Gallop polls are surveys of public opinion as conducted by George Gallup, an American who developed a quantitative method of polling public opinion. George Gallup founded the American Institute of Public Opinion, the precursor of The Gallup Organization, in Princeton, New Jersey, in 1935. He wished to objectively determine the opinions held by the people. The Gallup Poll is the division of Gallup that regularly conducts public opinion polls in more than 140 countries around the world. Gallup polls are often referenced in the mass media as a reliable and objective measure of public opinion. Gallup Poll results, analyses, and videos are published daily on Gallup.com in the form of data-driven news. Historically, the Gallup Poll has measured and tracked the public’s attitudes concerning virtually every political, social, and economic issue of the day, including highly sensitive or controversial subjects. In 2005, Gallup began its World Poll which continually surveys citizens in more than 140 countries, representing 95% of the world’s adult population. General and regional-specific questions, developed in collaboration with the world’s leading behavioral economists, are organized into powerful indexes and topic areas that correlate with real-world outcomes. Gallup Polls are best known for their accuracy in predicting the outcome of United States presidential elections. In 2008, Gallup interviewed no fewer than 1,000 US adults each day, providing the most watched daily tracking poll of the race between John McCain and Barack Obama. Gallup conducts 1,000 interviews every day among both landline and cell phones across the US for its health and well-being survey. Focus groups Focus groups are undoubtedly a powerful research tool which provide a useful complement to quantitative approaches to get a deep understanding of the opinions and attitudes of particular publics. However, they do need to be moderated by trained researchers. Focus group interviews are a marketing research technique that has been successfully adapted to the needs of public relations practitioners and are not really the province of the ‘gifted amateur’. It is a relatively unstructured surveying technique in which a moderator asks 8-12 people questions about a certain topic such as an organization’s image or its products. The subjects are allowed to answer in whatever form they wish, while the moderator’s job is to keep the ‘focus’ of the discussion on the topic at hand. Focus groups are useful in generating ideas and are especially useful during the early stages of campaign planning. The results are often used to help formulate more specific research hypothesis for subsequent testing. The focus groups should be representative of the audience that the organization wants to reach. adapted to the needs of public relations practitioners. They do not yield the strictly quantitative data that can be gotten from a survey. But they do have the advantage of being open-ended and permitting members of target groups to speak in their own terms of understanding, provide their own emphasis, and respond to the views expressed by other members of the same group. The key features of a focus group, suggested by Daymon and Holloway are: they provide evidence from many voices on the same topic; they are interactive; they provide a supportive forum for expressing suppressed views and they allow you to collect a large amount of data fairly quickly. Typically, focus group can be used to examine issues like understanding behaviours and attitudes; exploring strategic policies and issues; developing and understanding brands, products and services; and exploring organizational and industry issues. Employee attitude surveys Positive employee perceptions of work environment are critical to a productive organization. Numerous research studies have shown that satisfied employees not only stay at their jobs longer, they also lead to happier, more loyal customers. In recent years, surveys of employee attitudes toward work content, structure, process, and environment have been used successfully to restructure the workplace and to improve both productivity and employee satisfaction. Employee attitude surveys are inexpensive tools that can give a superb insight into employee motivation, performance and overall satisfaction. One short-term benefit of employee attitude surveys is that they show the employees that you care about their opinions. Longterm benefits can include improved morale, increased customer retention and more profits. Focus group interviews have been successfully Media Mimansa 103 July-September 2010 Some of the main factors that affect employee satisfaction are : Job security; Communication between employees & management ; Lack of training; Compensation; Job burnout; Ill-defined tasks; Poor working conditions; Lack of support; Lack of advancement opportunities ; Feeling unappreciated etc. Once you understand how your employees think and feel, you can begin to revise policies and procedures to better meet their needs. You’ll greatly improve employee retention and motivate your employees to produce higher quality work. REFERENCES l Cutlip M.Scott, Center H. Allen and Broom M. Glen, (1994) Effective Public Relations, Prentice hall, New Jersey l David Michelson (2010) Setting Best Practices in Public Relations Research, Institute for Public Relations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ The_Gallup_Organization l Leland G. Verheyen. (1988) How to develop an employee attitude survey, Training & Development Journal, August 01 l Pavlik V John (1987) Public relations–What research tells us, Sage Publications, Public Relations, (2008) New World Encyclopedia l Seitel P. Fraser (1997) The Practice of Public Relations, Prentice Hall p. 99-120 l Stacks W Don, (2002) Primer of Public Relations Research, The Guilford Press, USA l Wilcox L. Dennis, Ault H. Phillip and Agee K. Warren ( 1986) Public Relations Strategies and Tactics, Harper and Row, Publishers, New York. p. 129 Conclusion Research in PR has become necessary in today’s complex society. Instinct intuition and gut feelings all remain important in the conduct of public relations work, but management today demands more – measurement, analysis, and evaluation at every stage of the PR process. It is necessary for the PR practitioner to understand the attitudes, hopes, fears, concerns, frustrations of various relevant publics. Hence, all Public Relations practitioners need to be educated on research methods survey, focus group interviews and opinion polls to further enrich their practice. 104 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 Thrust areas of research in computer science C.P. Agrawal* P. Sasikala** ABSTRACT The rapid expansion of Computer Research has led to several surveys with potential to start further research. Research in Computer Science needs to take into account different aspects from various disciplines. In this paper, we explore the topics that are more closely associated with Computer Science. The main focus is to motivate and start shaping the execution of research activities in a university. The specific dominating research areas of this decade are also discussed. This article brings out the thrust research areas in Computer Science and provides suggestions for accessing the key resources. Introduction Computers, computing and communication have become a large part of our daily lives and have proven to make society a better place to live. It is making human life more and more divine and uplifted every moment. Every 7 minute, there is a new IT milestone developed. Hence, research opportunities in the most cutting edge areas of computers, computing and communication would be most acceptable. Research also gives way for collaboration between universities, industries and the government. The quality of research depends on finding the right things, the right way, at the right place and time. Recently, the National Knowledge Commission, in its Report 2009, strongly recommended to, “Create greater awareness and acceptance towards pursuing teaching and research as a career, by communicating the opportunities and excitement at a broader level” [1]. Further, “Expose undergraduate and postgraduate students to cutting edge research and engage them in serious research wherever possible”. Makhanlal Chaturvedi University is dedicated to expanding knowledge and technology to advance the understanding of computer science and applications for the betterment of humanity. The commitment of this university to the discovery of new ideas and projects intended to solve problems and enhance quality of life has contributed to the progression of computer science. Other disciplines have benefited from the astounding discoveries resulting from the ground–breaking research performed in computer science. This article aims in giving exposure and initiate the quest for research in Computer Science as given in Section I. In Section II, IT research initiatives and facilities available in this University (www.mcu.ac.in) have been highlighted. Section III highlights the key research resources easily available. Since most of us are at a loss for topics to propose, the topics survey given can possibly give an idea. Almost all of the resources mentioned here are inter-related topics in computer science research. * Professor & Head, Computer Science and Rector, MC University. (email ID : agrawalcp@yahoo.com) ** Asst. Prof., Computer Science, MC University. (email ID : mculect.sasikala@gmail.com) Media Mimansa 105 July-September 2010 1. Expansive IT research areas at a glance 1.1 Algorithms include research on a range of areas related to computational complexity and the design, analysis, and applications of algorithms. Operations Research, Computational Geometry, Graph Theory, Computer Graphics, Networking, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Robotics are few areas of applications of algorithms. 1.2 Artificial Intelligence and Natural Language Processing is a broad area covering Intelligent systems, Pattern recognition, Computer vision, Machine learning, Neural networks, Image processing, etc. Natural language understanding, Machine translation, Semantics extraction, Document understanding, Cross lingual information retrieval, Intelligent interfaces are the other areas of this domain. 1.3 Computer Graphics links Computer Vision and Image Understanding, Computer-aided graphics design, Multimedia, Visualization, Rendering, Animation, Image Analysis and Biometrics, Image and video retrieval. 1.4 Computer Networks vary from Broadband networks to Network Algorithms, Performance modeling, wired and wireless networks, network security protocols, Sensor Networks, Content Distribution Networks. Architectures and protocols for Metro Optical Networks, High Performance computing, Quality-of-service protocols, Mobile Computing, Voice Routing, Voice over IP, Enterprise networks etc. 1.5 Data Mining comprises Data integration models and algorithms, Graphical models, Information extraction and retrieval, Forecasting and smart ebusiness, Sensor and Bio-informatics data mining, Text and Web data mining. Integrating mining with relational DBMS, Integrating mining with OLAP, Data Mining and Analytics, Temporal and Spatial mining. 106 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 1.6 Database and Information Systems include Object oriented, temporal and parallel databases, Query optimization and transaction management. Real-time database systems, indexing multidimensional data, Wide area distributed database systems, data dissemination systems, data warehousing and application security. 1.7 Distributed Systems involve Distributed object-based systems, Programming models and Runtimes for generic agents, Parallel Computing, High performance cluster computing, Distributed operating systems, Performance evaluation, fault tolerance and scalability issues in distributed systems. 1.8 Formal Methods & Theory comprises Formal specification, design and verification of hardware and software systems, Logic, Automata theory and their applications in reasoning about systems. Other areas are Automated theorem proving, Model checking, Reachability analysis of large and infinite state spaces and techniques, Algebra modeling and verification of distributed systems, Complexity theory, etc. 1.9 Information Management and Data Analytics includes Data Management for emerging applications, Data privacy and access control , Data management through Grid computing, Utility computing, Virtualization, Cloud computing, Knowledge management in software engineering, Business intelligence, etc. 1.10 Programming languages and Compilers cover Analysis and implementation of functional and logic programming languages, Analysis and synthesis of Compilers, Optimizing and parallelizing compilers, Implementation of compilers and so on. 1.11 Real-Time and Embedded Systems contain Functional Programming applications, Reconfigurable computing, Automobile Telematics, Embedded control units, Design and development of robots, sensor platforms, etc. 1.12 Scalable Software Engineering includes Object oriented software development, Component architectures, Re-engineering of software, Systems analysis and design, MIS systems, Project management, Testing and Quality assurance. 1.13 Speech and Vision involves A speech translation system from one language to another, A system for secure access to information using speech mode, Biometrics involving speech, image, text and audio-visual information , Content-based information storage and retrieval, Development of phonetic engine and so on. 2. Research Outlook in the University Teaching Department At Makhanlal Chaturvedi University (MCU), research is well geared up to take a quantum leap. The systems based research in the following areas will lead to innovative prototypes that may help in implementing systems that are directly applicable for society. 2.1 Mobile Networking and Communications Mobile networking research, focus on designing, analyzing and implementing software systems to control communication networks with the goal of building future communication networks that can efficiently support voice, data and multimedia applications. Mobile network objective is to evolve cellular access networks into more secure, all-IP mobile networks and to enhance the networking infrastructure and protocols of Internet. High speed mobile data networking focuses on creating the next generation wireless network architectures, mobility management, and security in wireless networks, and services that will run over these networks. The research areas involve network subscriber databases, MobileIP, and wireless/wireline convergence. This area of work also encompasses research into designing scalable architectures for enabling novel services for wireless service providers and in building hardware/software components. Another success area is Mobile Web, which is driven by the combination of novel Web-based services with the diffusion of advanced mobile devices that require personalization, location awareness and content adaptation. The recent advances in wireless access technologies as well as the increasing number of mobile applications have made Wireless Internet a reality. A wide variety of bandwidth demanding services including high speed data delivery and multimedia communication have been materialized through the convergence of the next generation Internet and heterogeneous wireless networks. However, providing even higher bandwidth and richer applications necessitates a fundamental understanding of wireless Internet architecture and the interactions between heterogeneous users. Consequently, fundamental advances in many concepts of the wireless Internet are required for the ultimate goal of communication anytime anywhere [2]. The key resources for Mobile Networks and Applications are found in MOBIDATA, An Interactive journal of mobile computing [3]. The journal Mobile Networks and Applications reflects the emerging symbiosis of portable computers and wireless networks, addressing the convergence of mobility, computing and information organization, access and management. In its special issues, the journal places an equal emphasis on various areas of nomadic computing, data management, related software and hardware technologies and mobile user services. 2.2 Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD) is an interdisciplinary area which deals with extracting Media Mimansa 107 July-September 2010 knowledge from data. The need for KDD methodologies arises due to rapid growth of online data and the large databases used to hold it. The challenge of extracting knowledge from data draws upon research in statistics, databases, pattern recognition, machine learning, data visualization, optimization, and highperformance computing, to deliver advanced business intelligence and web discovery solutions. Key advances in robust and scalable data mining, methods for fast pattern detection from very large databases, text and web mining, and innovative business intelligence applications have come from this research area [4]. Current advances in different types of web mining are in the categories of web content mining, web usage mining, and web structure mining. For each research work, the key issues to be examined are web mining process, methods/techniques, applications, data sources, and software to be used. The web mining process includes resource finding and retrieving, information selection and preprocessing, patterns analysis and recognition, validation and interpretation, and visualization. Data Mining community’s top resource is available at kdnuggets.com [5]. The leading source of information on Data Mining, Web Mining, Knowledge Discovery, and Decision Support topics available here has been widely recognized as the leading resource pool. For example, Data Mining Software like Weka has a collection of machine learning algorithms for data mining tasks. The algorithms can either be applied directly to a dataset or called from your own Java code. Weka contains tools for data pre-processing, classification, regression, clustering, association rules, and visualization. It is also well suited for developing new machine learning schemes. More information on open resources can be explored at kdnuggets.com [5]. 108 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 2.3 Data Warehousing The functioning of an organization depends on intelligent decision–making that relies on available correct information. Data Warehousing is a technology that allows information to be easily and efficiently accessed for decision-making activities by collecting data from many operational, legacy and possibly heterogeneous data sources. On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) tools are well suited for complex data analysis, such as multi-dimensional data analysis, and to assist in decision support activities while data mining tools take the process one step further and actively search the data for patterns and hidden knowledge in the data stored in the warehouse. Many organizations are building, or are planning to develop, a data warehouse for their operational and decision support needs. Key advances in data warehouse modeling, view selection and maintenance, indexing schemes, parallel query processing and data mining issues come from this research area [6]. The other main research issues include latest technologies Linking Structured Databases to the Unstructured Data Environment, Architecting the Enterprise to Optimize Business Intelligence and Data Warehousing; Metadata Environment for Transformation, Impact of Globalization in Driving Integration of International Data and/or Multi-Lingual Requirements. Top resources are available in Data Warehousing.com which is dedicated to “documenting all data warehousing related information on the Internet”[7]. It hosts data warehouse specific list servers and newsgroups. DataWarehouse.com bills itself as “the data warehouse community” [8]. These sites offer discussion forums, live chats, e-seminars, articles, trade show information, and more. They include links to software companies and consultants, a directory of relevant sites, and a list of papers and articles submitted to the site by the data warehousing community. 2.4 Natural Language Processing Natural Language Processing has a strong scope due to Multilingual Information Access, particularly in India. Multilingual Information Access is critical for the acquisition, dissemination, exchange, and understanding of knowledge in the global information society. Multilingual Information Access is Cross Language Information Retrieval, Multilingual Information Extraction, and Machine Translation that bridge the gap between available information and the user needs transparently across languages. The Multilingual Systems deal with software technologies related to content-creation, storage, search, access, and interaction with multiple languages. Cross language Information Retrieval [9] and Multilingual Information Extraction includes query expansion, domain adaptation, automatic alignment of multilingual corpora, multilingual named entity extraction, machine transliteration, automated and collaborative creation of parallel corpora for Machine Translation and fundamental properties of languages and language phenomena including language acquisition and evolution, structural properties of corpora in the framework of complex networks, and interaction between syntax and prosody. Apart from this, robust fundamentals include annotation standards, data collection efforts and basic tools for research in Indian languages. Parts-of-Speech (POS) tagging is an important process for most Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks [10]. POS annotations capture the morphosyntactic features of the words from the given context in a text and hence can provide useful information for subsequent stages of processing such as chunking, named entity detection, and parsing. The fundamental building blocks for NLP research are lacking in areas like workable POS tagset and tagger for most Indian Languages (IL). Existing IL POS tagsets are targeted for a specific language, hence scope for lot of research is existing in this area. Linguists, Computational Linguists, and Computer Scientists from MSRI, AU-KBC, Delhi University, IIT Bombay, Jawaharlal Nehru University, and Tamil University had contributed to this collaborative effort. So far, POS-tagged data is available in two Indian languages, namely Hindi and Bangla for the research community. Language Technology World is the most comprehensive WWW information service and knowledge source on the wide range of technologies that deal with human language. The Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL NLP/CL Universe) language is a resource pool for language related technologies [11]. Information portal and journal for the translation and localization industries is an important resource for Multilingual Computing [12]. 2.5 Cloud Computing Cloud Computing is a broad area spurred by several important technological trends. It is the concept of renting computing power that has taken the technology world by storm. Cloud Computing has attracted a great deal of attention both from the research community and from industry. The Cloud Computing paradigm has evolved over the years from a basic IT infrastructure (data centers) to platform as a service (PaaS), and then from software as a service (SaaS) to complete service enablement on a hosted infrastructure (IaaS). At the same time, virtualization has emerged as a key enabler for the cloud computing paradigm. Several challenges arise in the design, implementation, and deployment of virtualized clouds. These challenges include automated service provisioning, service monitoring and management, resource elasticity, cloud programming models, economic models, charging and accounting, and, finally, virtualization-specific issues Media Mimansa 109 July-September 2010 such as image management and virtual appliance-based service creation. The broad range of topics that address fundamental issues in the enablement of applications, services, and infrastructures in a large-scale, virtualized cloud platform includes deployment, monitoring, and management to address the issues of scale, reliability, root-cause analysis, dynamic resource planning, security and privacy, and new applications [13]. Internet. Elsevier Science offer access to full text of 2423 journals published by them, out of which 133 are Computer Science Journals [15]. International Digital Electronic Access Library permits to use 175 Academic Press Journals. Network based resources like mailing software, CiteSeer, ACM, DBLP, Reference Linking, Pre Print service and Consortiums are other important means of access to research articles. India is among the top six countries in terms of talent and market potential. As per the industry forecasts, India will not only see a surge in cloud computing services but companies all over the world will look to India to support their transition to cloud computing. Therefore, companies are sparing no efforts in making its cloud computing push a success in India, a market that is “developing very nicely where piracy is reducing and intellectual property protection is better than in China. “We are successful at exporting IT services and talent. But when it comes to using technology domestically, we are quite poor,’’ said Microsoft India Chairman. Academic institutions should explore the domestic applications of these technologies and act as a Platform to transform it to the society. Apart from these, IEEE Computer Society is the world’s premier organization of computing professionals, with rich offerings in publications, standards, certifications, conferences, and many more [16]. Computer Society Digital Library covers all areas of computing and is the best source for coverage of new and emerging technologies. Seminal papers, News, Software, Solutions and Publications are also available for researchers. In free Webinar, experts explore hot technologies and distinguish between best practices and discuss the strategies that most significantly affect both process and product quality Cloud Computing is one of the most promising areas of research for the next decade. One of the best portals for Cloud Computing is found in cloudcomputing.qrimp.com [14]. It is one of the central source of information on cloud computing. The model is to get user-generated content from the community, as it is an emerging area. Cloud computing can transform how research is conducted, allowing scientists around the world to explore and share rich, diverse multidisciplinary data sets with their own familiar desktop tools. 3. Key Computing Research Resources Electronic Journals are widely available over 110 Media Mimansa July-September 2010 Conclusion Scientific research is the key to sustaining India’s growth, and it is critical for India to ensure that research remains an attractive profession for the nation’s finest minds. This paper lists a top-level index of topics describing current research in computer science. The paper contains resources that span most of the areas of computer science. It has a collection of pointers to specialized resources for individual subareas. It is intended to improve communication between different sub-fields and gives way for collaboration between universities, industries and the government. Creating role models and thereby encouraging the youth to pursue careers in scientific research should be the nation’s focus. The MCU’s overall research goal is: “To produce and communicate new knowledge and to apply innovative applications of existing knowledge which make a significant impact at national/international level and improve the prosperity of the people and communities of this region.’’ We believe that these research fields discussed will pave way for close interaction between researchers and industry practitioners so that the research can inform current deployments and deployment challenges can inform new research directions. Whatever be the area of research chosen by an individual, the goal is still the same – to improve the quality of life as quality is the key link to success. [5] http://www.kdnuggets.com/ [6] http://www.1keydata.com/ [7] http://www.datawarehousing.com/ [8] http://www.datawarehouse.com/ [9] Ricardo Baeza-Yates, Berthier Ribeiro-Neto, Modern Information Retrieval (ACM Press Books), 2008 [10] Nitin Indurkhya and Fred J. Damerau, Handbook of Natural Language Processing, Second Edition (Chapman & Hall/Crc: Machine Learning & Pattern Recognition), 2010 [11] www.aclweb.org/ [12] http://www.multilingual.com/ [13] George Reese, Cloud Application Architectures: Building Applications and Infrastructure in the Cloud (Theory in Practice (O’Reilly)), 2009 [14] www.cloudcomputing.qrimp.com [15] http://www.elsevier.com [16] http://www.computer.org REFERENCES [1] http://www.knowledgecommission.gov.in/ [2] Samuel Pierre, Michel Barbeau, and Evangelos Kranakis, Ad-Hoc, Mobile and Wireless Networks, 2003 [3] http://www.cs.rutgers.edu / [4] Berthold, M.R., Borgelt, C., Höppner, F., Klawonn, F., Guide to Intelligent Data Analysis, “How to Intelligently Make Sense of Real Data Series: Texts in Computer Science”, Vol. 42, 2010 Media Mimansa 111 July-September 2010