JAMM 444 – Public Opinion Spring 2008
The exam will consist of 20 multiple-choice questions (worth 2 points each), six short-answer questions
(worth 5 points each) and one essay question, worth 30 points. Most of the multiple-choice and short-answer questions will come from the list below. You should also review your notes from lectures, class discussions, and the three guest speakers: Travis Ridout, Chris Williams and Priscilla Salant.
You are responsible for all assigned readings listed on the syllabus, regardless of whether they were discussed in class. They are chapters 1-5 and 7 of Polling and the Public , chapters 1-5 of Tuned Out, and the
Wall Street Journal articles about the 1936 polling fiasco and cell-phone-only users.
The exam is Thursday, Feb. 28 , at 3:30 p.m. (You’re welcome to come at 3:25 to begin early.)
MULTIPLE CHOICE & SHORT ANSWER
People
George Gallup
Walter Lippmann
John Dewey
John Evans
John Edwards
Terms primary caucus superdelegate
FRUGing
SUGing pseudo-poll massification progressive differentiation
Bowling Alone social capital brokered convention bandwagon effect underdog effect
Frasier’s Dilemma
Methodology quota sample vs. random sample stratified sample intercept survey ( aka mall intercept)
Likert scale screening question non-response error sampling error measurement error coverage error
Concepts beliefs/values/attitudes/opinions stereotypes
“pictures in our heads” nonattitude random-digit dialing (RDD) exit polls push polls focus groups cell phones vs. landlines weaknesses of Internet surveys
Week 2: Jan. 15-17
1. What trends in polling worry the author? Why do these threaten the integrity of legitimate polling?
2. How large is the sample for most polls conducted in the United States? Why do social scientists consider samples of this size to be scientifically valid?
3. Which factors best explain why Hillary Clinton did better in the New Hampshire primary that polls predicted?
4. How does Mindich define “traditional” media, also known as MSM? Which forms of media have taken their place as a source of news for Americans of your generation? Why?
5. Mindich offers five theories to explain the decline in attention to news and current events by young
Americans. What are they? From your own perspective, which of his “alibis” do you think are valid?

6. Why does Mindich believe that the Internet has failed to replace traditional media as a source of news about government and politics for this generation?
Week 3: Jan. 22-24
1. Why was the Literary Digest prediction of the 1936 presidential election winner wrong? Why was
George Gallup’s prediction correct?
2. Why is the presence of nonattitudes a perplexing problem for pollsters?
3. How can screening questions minimize the number of superficial responses to interview stimuli?
What is an example of an effective screening question?
4. Why are the two “legislative opinion ballots” from Rep. Bill Sali shown in class a poor method of measuring the opinion of Idaho voters? What would be a more accurate method?
5. What is the connection between the term “Bowling Alone” (referred to in the Tuned Out book) and the decline of social capital in America?
Week 4: Jan. 29-31
1. What is a focus group? What type of information can it provide that conventional surveys don’t?
What are the limitations of this method?
2. What is a deliberative opinion poll? What makes it a) expensive and b) difficult to carry out?
3. How is an exit poll conducted? What developments in electoral mechanics might affect exit polls’ ability to predict the outcome of an election?
Week 5: Feb. 5-7
1. Why might a potential candidate for public office commission a poll before deciding whether to run?
(Give three reasons reason.)
2. Why are Iowa and New Hampshire so critical to the process of selecting the major parties’ presidential nominees? Has this been true so far in 2008? Why or why not? How does “Super Duper
Tuesday” fit into the 2008 election calendar?
3. How does media coverage of a presidential affect the public’s perception of who “won” the contest?
4. Why did many polls (including one supervised by George Gallup) incorrectly predict the winner of the 1948 presidential election?
5. Which factors best explains why Barack Obama did better in primaries in Alabama and Georgia than polls predicted? How could the pollsters have compensated for this problem?
Week 6: Feb. 14-16
1. Why do you believe that people are reluctant to participate in surveys? How do low response rates affect the validity of a survey?
2. Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the following survey methods: in-person interviews; telephone interviews; mail-administered surveys; Internet and e-mail surveys.

3. How can wording of a question influence answers? Give an example of how double-negative wording might produce contradictory responses.
Week 7: Feb. 21-23
1. What are the four most common errors that affect the accuracy of a survey? Give an example of each.
2. Which category of error is likely to result if cell-phone-only (CPO) users have different political beliefs and behavior than land-line users?
3. How do childhood habits (and parents’ media consumption patterns) affect the media use of today’s young adults? What other factors might explain why many young people are “tuned out” of news?
4. If young people aren’t turning to the Web for news, what are they using it for? Why does the author refer to the Internet as an “elastic” medium?
5. What are examples of print, broadcast and online media that blend news and entertainment? What explains their appeal?
ESSAY QUESTIONS
Two of the following essay questions, or a variation, will be on the exam. You will choose one to answer during the exam period.
1. Two of the 20 th
Century’s leading philosophers of public opinion were John Dewey and
Walter Lippmann. Compare and contrast their thinking about the public’s role in shaping public policy.
How would each have responded to the U.S. debate in 2003 over whether to attack Iraq? What strategies do you think each would recommend for resolving a contentious public issue?
2. Political blogger Ariana Huffington ( www.huffingtonpost.com
) writes:
Polls have come to dominate the media's horse race coverage of political campaigns. Pundits and reporters constantly use them to tell us who’s hot and who’s not – but skip over the fact that plummeting response rates and variables like undecided voters and margins of error and often render these polls useless as anything other than lightweight diversions on par with horoscopes and political betting lines.
Write an essay that supports or refutes Huffington=s portion. Use material from the readings and class discussions to argue one of the following positions: a.
Polls do not give an accurate measurement of American public opinion, and that the country would be better off without them. OR b.
Polls are essential to American democracy because they help voters, political candidates and elected leaders know what the public is thinking on issues.
3. The following passage comes from the final chapter of Tuned Out :
It has been said that nothing focuses one’s attention like a hangman’s noose. Because they have ceded their own political power, the majority of young Americans who are tuned out pose a huge danger to their own generation; when they are ready to become leaders, they will pose a huge danger to democracy itself. This chilling image focuses me and should focus you.
Using material from class discussions, both books, news accounts of media consumption by young
Americans, and your own experience as a someone tuned in to (or tuned out from) political news, answer these questions:

Why do many young people choose not to follow the news?

Do you agree or disagree with David Mindich’s statement that this trend poses “a huge danger to democracy”? Why or why not?

And finally, what would you do to re-engage young Americans in the political process?